BIOENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT:Solving California’s Energy Challenges: Yielding Global Opportunities

John Shears, Visiting Research FellowThe Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies

California Biomass Collaborative, UC Davis/CIFAR, & UC Merced Small Business Development Center

Joint Forum on Biomass, Biofuels, and BioproductsFresno, CaliforniaJanuary 26, 2006

California Biomass Collaborative 3rd Annual ForumUC Davis/California Institute of Food and Agricultural Research

Research Conference XXIUC Merced Small Business Development Center - 2nd Annual Biofuels Conference

World energy consumption by resource, history and Hubbert-type projections

Source: CEERT, Risky Diet 2005

World energy consumption

Resource Scarcity? Or Demand vs Supply?

Source: The Economist, 01.05.06

Foreign trade balance of the United States, 1960–2004

Source: Smil, 2005. Plotted from data in US Census Bureau (2005).

California’s Projected Energy Demand

Electricity

Sources of California’s 2002 GHG Emissions (By End-Use Sector)

Source: CEC

Transportation Energy

Carbon Emissions, tons of CO2-equivalent

What Was Once Old is New Again – So long Kyoto!

“Independent forecasts from France’s Alstom and Germany’s Siemens, made available to the Financial Times, show that about 40 per cent of the orders for electricity turbines in the next decade will be for coal-powered units, with the share of gas-fired plants falling to between 25 and 30 per cent…..…..The shift to coal has been evident in the past year. Of the 120GW of new power orders, 20-30 per cent were for gas-powered plants while 30-40 per cent were for coal-fuelled generators.”

Source: Christian Science Monitor (12-23-04) citing: UDI-PLATT'S, US-EIA,AND INDUSTRY ESTIMATES

The Potential for California’s renewable portfolio standards to influence the projected growth in demand for coal-generated electricity from the interior West

The Emissions Footprint of California and Western Coal

Source: CEERT, ED, WRA, 2005. Clearing California’s Coal Shadow from the American West.

California’s Coal Footprint

Clearly We Can’t Keep Doing This….

World Emissions of Carbon DioxideUSEIA Projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Bill

ion

tons

per

yea

r

CoalGasOil

Kyoto Target

… when we need to be dealing with this??

Source: Univeresity of East Anglia, CRU, 12.05

☻☻ Twelve warmest years Twelve warmest years globally in descending order, globally in descending order, 1998, 2005 (preliminary), 1998, 2005 (preliminary), 2002, 2003, 2004, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 1990 & 1999 1997, 1995, 1990 & 1999 (joint), and 1991 & 2000 (joint), and 1991 & 2000 (joint).(joint).

☻☻1998 alone was 0.6°C/1°F 1998 alone was 0.6°C/1°F warmer than the 1961warmer than the 1961--90 90 meanmean

California is projected to get hotter and drier……with consequences for the State’s Biomass and…

Winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) temperature change (°C) for 2070–2099, relative to 1961–1990 using the Parallel and Hadley Center Climate Models.

Winter temperature projections for the end of the century are 2.2–3°C and 2.3–4°C compared with previous projections of

1.2–2.5°C and 3–3.5°C. Summer temperature projections are 2.2–4°C and 4.6–8.3°C compared with previous projections of 1.3–3°C and 3–4°C.

Source Hayhoe et al. 2004

Statewide change in cover of major vegetation types for 2020–2049 and 2070–2099, relative to simulated distributions for the 1961–1990 reference period. ASF, alpine/subalpine forest; ECF, evergreen conifer forest; MEF, mixed evergreen forest; MEW, mixed evergreen woodland; GRS, grassland; SHB, shrubland; DES, desert. Increasing temperatures drive the reduction in ASF cover and cause mixed conifer forest to displace ECF in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the North Coast. Mixed conifer forest in the South Coast expands because of increased humidity and reduced fire frequency. Because of drier conditions and increased fire frequency in inland locations, GRS displaces SHB and woodland, particularly in the PCM simulations, whereas warmer and drier conditions under HadCM3 cause an expansion of desert cover in the southern Central Valley.

…WATER:Climate and Snowpack

Simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) under a projected temperature increase for the periods 2020–2039 (0.6C warming), 2050–2069 (1.6C) and 2080–2099 (2.1C), expressed as a percentage of average present conditions.

Source: Knowles and Cayan, 2002.

California’s Current Climate Action Process:DRAFT REPORTS TO THE GOVERNOR AND LEGISLATURE

• An Assessment of Impacts of Future CO2 and Climate on Agriculture.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-187-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 33 pages, 722 kilobytes)

• Analysis of Climate Effects on Agricultural Systems.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-188-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 42 pages, 1.5 megabytes)

• Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions for California Agricultural Landscape.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-189-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 108 pages, 1.0 megabytes)

• Climate Change and Wildfire In and Around California: Fire Modeling and Loss Modeling.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-190-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 33 pages, 2.8 megabytes)

• The Response of Vegetation Distribution, Ecosystem Productivity, and Fire in California to Future Climate Scenarios Simulated by the MC1 Dynamic Vegetation Model.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-191-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 24 pages, 447 kilobytes)

• Fire and Sustainability: Considerations for California's Altered Future Climate.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-192-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 11 pages, 234 kilobytes>)

• Climate Change Impact on Forest Resources.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-193-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 49 pages, 668 kilobytes)

• Climate Change Impacts on Water for Agriculture in California: A Case Study in the Sacramento Valley.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-194-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 78 pages, 1.3 megabytes)

• Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on Wildfire Severity and Outcomes in California: A Preliminary Analysis.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-196-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 48 pages, 464 kilobytes)

• Climate Change Projected Santa Ana Fire Weather OccurrenceDraft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-204-SD, posted:December 12, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 15 pages, 331 kilobytes)

California’s Current Climate Action Process:DRAFT REPORTS TO THE GOVERNOR AND LEGISLATURE

cont’d

• Climate Warming and Water Supply Management in California.Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-195-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 48 pages,1.0 megabytes)

• Climate Change and Electricity Demand in CaliforniaDraft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-201-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 13 pages, 284 kb)

• Climate Change Impacts on High Elevation Hydropower Generation in California's Sierra Nevada: A Case Study in the Upper American River Draft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-199-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 35 pages, 456 kb)

• Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on California Water Resources Using CALSIM-II: A Technical NoteDraft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-200-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 24 pages, 336 kb)

• Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change in California: Opportunities and Constraints for AdaptionDraft white paper from California Climate Change Center, publication # CEC-500-2005-198-SD, posted: December 8, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 46 pages, 625 kb)

• Incorporating Climate Change Into Management of California's Water Resources. Update on California Department of Water Resources report. Posted: December 12, 2005. (Adobe Acrobat PDF file, 1 page, 11 kilobytes

NOTE WHAT IS NOT COVERED SEPARATELY BUT SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO PRESENT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE – The competing interest of water use for environmental purposes (habitat and environmental conditions for fish species etc)

Stabilization Wedges

Source: Pacala & Socolow, 2004

Renewable Energy Pathways

Source: Hoogwijk, 2004

In an Ideal World

Biomass, Biomass…How much Biomass?!

Source: Dukes, 2003

☼ Average U.S. Gallon (3.8 L) of gasoline required approximately 90 metric tons of ancient plant matter as precursor material. ☼

☼ The fossil fuels burned on an annual basis at the end of 1990s were created from organic matter containing 44 × 1018 gC ☼

Equivalent to:• >400 times the annual net primary productivity of the planet’s current flora• 73 times the global standing stock of carbon in vegetation.• 36 times the annual global solar insolation

☼ Since the mid 1700s, humanity has consumed the equivalent of between 13-14,000 years’ worth of the world’s NPP ☼

1 Pg, Petagram = 1 x 1015g1 × 1018g = 1 Eg, Exagram

The Biomass Resources of California

per Capita – tonnes per year

Tonnes per Square Kilometer per yearThousand tonnes per year

Estimated gross biomass (BDT/y) by county in California, 2005.Source: BIOMASS IN CALIFORNIA: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND POTENTIALS FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

NREL

30-40 X106 tonsAg 30%Municipal 30%Forestry 40%

California’s Gross System Power (GSP) for 2004 (GWh)

Source: Various CEC

BIOMASSCurrent Capacity ~ 1000MWePotential Capacity ~ 4700MWe With > efficiency ~ 7100MWe

Source: Kyriakos Maniatis, European Commission

Source: Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung – Heidelberg, 2004

☼ The Biomass Energy Stream ☼

☼ Can we insure that the Inputs and Outputs at each stage minimize pollutants, including both uniform and non-uniform pollutants to air? ☼

Source: BIOMASS IN CALIFORNIA: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND POTENTIALS FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

How complete are these analyses? Making sure that we capture all of the inputs.

Source: Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung / Institute for Energy and Environmental Research – Heidelberg, 2004

Fossil Energy Balance of Corn-based Ethanol

Souce: Wang, 2005.

?

?

GHG Emission Reductions per Gallon of Ethanol to Displace an energy-Equivalent Amount of Gasoline

Source: Wang, 2005.

Challenges for Ethanol’s Use

0.1160.1180.12

0.1220.1240.1260.1280.13

0.1320.1340.136

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0Wt % Oxygen

Gra

ms

per

Mil

e

MTBE

ETOH

Source:Automaker's Presentation CARB Workshop July12, 2001

CARB RFG2 IN 8 LEVS & 2 ULEVS

5%9%

For Low Ethanol Blends (eg E10) the Current Debate is with reagrds to:

Precombustion Losses• Evaporative Losses of VOCs• Losses of VOCs due to Permeation

Postcombustion Emissions• NOX• Aldehydes - especially from older vehicles (photolyzes forming free radicals that contribute to the formationof peroxyacetylnitrate - PAN).

Subject of continuing research and modeling through the ARB.

For the interim, the use of E85 inFFVs avoids these problems

Source: P. Wuebben, SCAQMD

NOX

The By Now Classic 2002 EPA Biodiesel Emissions Profile

Source: EPA, 2002

Research at NRELcontinues to explorethis issue.

These performance advantages may hold even when compared to low sulfur diesels, soon to be in use.

See: Report of the AustralianBiofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister. August 2005

Back to Biomass Conversion Pathways

Source: Sims, R.E.H., 2002

Air Emissions - NOX, SOX, PM, aerosols, CO, Reactive organics, dioxin, furans, vaporized metals

Solids - heavy metals, salts, ash

Liquids - Reactive organics, salts, metals

Nuisance Factors - direct PM, odors, noise, viewsheds/sightlines

Impacts Can be GlobalBiodiversity Concerns

“…the main environmental risks are likely to be those concerning any large expansion in biofuel feedstock production, and particularly in Brazil (for sugar cane) and South East Asia (for palm oil plantations).”

UK Department for Transport, November 2005. Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) feasibility report.

Authors Note: Land-Clearing in Indonesia – especially for the purposes of increasing Palm Oil cultivation could also have significant impacts on global warming.

1998 2020 2050 2100

33 million 45.5 million 92 million?67 millionSource: Landis, 2003

Projected Urban Development in Response to Population Growth

Inland areas will grow faster than coastal areas of the state. In the next two decades, populations are projected to increase by 45 percent in inland counties, compared to 17 percent in coastal counties. Absolute growth will also be greater in the inland than the coastal counties (4.8 million compared to 4.4 million). The fastest growth rates will be in the Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernardino counties), the San Joaquin Valley, and the Sacramento metropolitan areas.

Source: PPIC, 2005

California’s Historical and Projected Water Demand

CT = Current Trends MRI = More Resource Intensive LRI = Less Resource Intensive

Projected Urban (left) and Agricultural (right) Water Demand in California according to each of the DWR Bulletin 160 Water Plan Updates.

Source: Pacific Institute, 2005

Pacific Institute – Projections Urban and Ag CombinedWith High Efficiency Measures

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California –changes in population and water sales, through 2001.

Source: Gleick, 2003

Change in Demand will Vary with Region Net change in average-year water demand for three scenarios by region, 2000–2030

Source: April 2005 Public Review Draft of the California Water Plan Update.

Bioenergy and Water Consumption

Water supply can't meet thirst for new industry

By Greg Gordon / StarTribune

“Nowhere is the growing clash between economic development and water conservation more evident than in the push to build ethanol plants that typically guzzle 3½ to 6 gallons of water for every gallon of fuel produced. Minnesota's 15 ethanol plants together consumeabout 2 billion gallons of water per year, and plants in Winthrop, Windom, Marshall and Granite Falls are straining available waterresources."

Decemeber 26, 2005

Continued R&D is needed to improve the technical potential of bioproducts and bioenergy

from purpose-grown crops

Source: Sims, 2003

Other Efficiencies that Might be Improved?Cost estimates ($US/kWe, installed) and claimed conversion efficiencies for selected existing and emerging small scale

bioenergy technologies

Source: Sims and Richards, 2002, and Sims, 2003

Ç’est Fin