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Ian de la Roche, PhD
Faculty of Forestry
University of British Columbia
Lecture WOOD 465
UBC, Vancouver
March 13, 2017
Bioeconomy and Sustainability
Contents
Global trends and the Clean Energy Agenda
Bioeconomy and the biorefinery
Biomass availability in N. A.
Technology maturity and market readiness
Wood products and sustainability
1. Climate Change – global impacts
2. Population Growth – Squeeze on non-renewable world resources
3. Growing Economic Power of Developing Countries and
Growth of Middle Class
4. Globalization – market-based competing economies, goods
and services
5. Disruptive Technologies and Innovation
Drivers shaping our future
Concerns about Climate Change remains the biggest global
driver for Clean Energy agenda and the Bio-economy…….
…. and the data backs that up
Numbers, types and intensity of natural disasters
J. Leaming and D. Guha-Sapir, 2014.
New England journal of Medicine
80% of Republicans and 32% of Democrats believe global climate is NOT
a very serious problem according to a recent Pew poll
EPA chief Scott Pruitt says
carbon dioxide is not a primary
contributor to global warming
March 9, 2017
Population growth and affluence, especially in developing
countries, is shaping the demand for the planet’s resources…
2012 7.0 billion
2025 8.1 billion
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2011
Nearly all future population growth will be in the
World's Less Developed Countries.
GHG increasing even faster than population
growth.
Exponential increase since 2002 due mainly to
rapid economic growth (GDP) and affluence in
countries like China.
Source: modified from CDIAC,2016
• With strong growth in the share of world population that participates in trade,
energy conservation and environmentally responsible use of resources are key
ingredients in maintaining long-term sustainability
• Rise in anti-globalization sentiment and trade agreements, eg., Brexit, TPP,
Sanders, Trump, etc., could dampen further growth
A larger share of the world’s population is participating in global trade
Technologies is having major impact on the forest sector
Technology Platforms
Digital and Wireless – big data gathering, processing, management and sharing
Genomics and Tree Improvement
Nanotechnology
Integrated Biorefinery
Disruptive
Technologies
Innovation
Sector
Transformation
Bioeconomy
Fossil fuel carbon emissions have continued to increase globally and are at an all time high
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2013.ems
Since 1751, approximately 392 gigatonnes of
fossil carbon released into atmosphere; half of
that since mid 1980’s.
2013 global carbon emission at 9.8 gigatonnes
(36 GT of CO₂); at an all time high and an 1.1%
increase over 2012.
Global and per capita C Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning,
Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring in million metric tons
Modified from CDIAC,2016
Year Total Gas Liquid Solid Cement Flaring Per Capita
1993 6104 1117 2513 2262 176 37 1.1
2013 9776 1806 3216 4131 554 68 1.36
Increase 60% 62% 28% 83% 215% 84% 24%
Coal extraction and cement production
showed significant increases over the
20 years, largely the result of enormous
Infrastructure development and
Industrialization in China.
Today, China and US rank one and two in total GHG emissions
Nation † Total Rank Per Capita Rank2
China 2.80X10⁹ 1 2.05 50
USA 1.41X10⁹ 2 4.40 13
Canada 0.13X10⁹ 13 3.68 21
Finland 0.01X10⁹ 60 2.32 42
Sweden 0.01X10⁹ 64 1.26 87
Rank by nations of 2013 total and per capita
CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement
production and gas flaring in metric tons carbon
Modified from CDIAC,2016 †Survey of 219 countries
Most predictions are for significant
increases:
EIA (48% from 2012 to 2040)
Exxon (25% from 2014 to 2040)
B.P. (34% from 2014 to 2035)
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016
Carbon Capture and Storage is critical to realizing 2⁰C by 2100
Fossil energy will either have to stay in the ground
or be off-set with Carbon Capture and Storage
Primary energy supply chart (MTOE)
(Includes bioenergy and hydro)
Bloomberg, 2016
2015 ((~13.7 BTOE)
2900 Gt CO₂ = 2⁰ C increase = 450 ppm CO₂
Paris COP21 good first step, but the world will have to go a lot further to meet the 1.5⁰C target
Global CO₂ emissions and probabilistic temperature outcomes of Paris
Fawcett et al. Science, December 2015
Emissions and probable temperature outcomes with various scenarios:
No Policy- no further actions to 2100 beyond current commitments.
Low Policy- no new mitigation to 2030 followed by 2%/y reduction on intensity (per GDP) into 2100.
Paris Continued Ambition- meet INDC targets to 2030 and then continue with same rate of decarbonization.
Paris Increased Ambition- higher rate (5%/y or more) beyond 2030. Paris 2100 Illustrative @ 50% probability- maintain temperature below 2⁰ until 2100; note negative emission (CCS, reforestation,
afforestation, wood products).
Follow the money: new investments in clean energy by sector
9.2
13.4
9.310.8
13.3
20.2
15.5
21.021.8
27.4
23.0
37.2
27.8
35.537.7
52.2
35.8
52.2
45.944.4
30.5
50.447.6
44.9
50.4
56.158.4
70.9
57.4
80.0
73.2
62.5
53.4
71.4
60.2
65.9
42.8
64.2
54.7
64.3
57.7
73.8
69.568.8
60.5
85.3
66.8
68.1
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Wind Solar Biofuels Other
Global New Investment in Clean Energy reached $329 billion in 2015 - a new
record high.
Solar & Wind dominate. Only 1% invested in biofuels in 2015
~25% of global total is in small scale projects.
Developing world leads with investments up 19% and developed nations
down 8% in 2015
Global new investment ($Bn) by sector in 2015
and % growth over 2014:
Solar 161 +12%
Wind 110 +4%
Biomass+wte 6 -29%
Small hydro 4 -42%
Biofuels 3 -35%
Geothermal 2 -23%
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016 $272bn $316bn $329bn
Biomass demand in North America mainly for domestic CHP and pellets for export;
2G biofuels remain a small play
Source: S. Walker, RISI, October 2013
Mill
ion
BD
T
Oil Sand production is forecast to increase to over
3 billion barrels per day over the next decade
Energy resource extraction accounts for
~17% of total Canadian emissions
Oil sands require processing in onsite
“Upgraders” to reach a low oil grade oil
called “Bitumen” • Significant land base disruption in mining
• Significant use of water and release of GHG
in upgrading
IHS Energy, 2016
US EIA,2016
US strategy on reducing its carbon
footprint has been balanced and effective
1. Reducing consumption of fossil liquid fuels through
energy efficiency and biofuel (bioethanol)
2. Reducing fossil power generation by substitution
(e.g., natural gas for coal, solar, wind and biomass
(stand alone and integrated)
US is on track to meet GHG commitments; Canada is not
but that may change with new liberal government.
Shale gas and oil opportunities are “game changer”
across North America
• Of the 2,300 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, 25% is held in shale rock formation.
• US reserves are third behind Russia and the Middle East.
• Marcellus, Barnett and Bakken are the big US shale plays.
• Fracking process entails injecting high pressure fluid into the rock to open cracks and release gas resulting in a
contamination risk to aquifers and surface water.
• Also huge quantities of water needed for extraction and ~40% of the world’s confirmed sites happen to be in areas where
fresh water is limited
• Public concern continues to grow in the US with NY and Vermont placing a ban on exploration
• Canada witnessing similar experiences.
US Natural Gas Production (trillion cubic feet)
US Energy Information Administration, 2016
US Energy Information Administration, 2011
Public and political risks of fracking can be significant and very
fluid
Key Messages – Energy Trends and Development
1. US has been on track to meet Copenhagen commitment; could change with
Trump administration
2. Canada has not been on track but that may change with current liberal
government.
3. US will become self-sufficient in energy and become a net exporter over the
next decade; Canada will continue to be a major net exporter; access to new off-
shore markets is a priority.
4. Shale oil has extended the peak oil scenario timeline by 25-30 years
5. Could see a weakening global commitment to meet CO₂ emission reduction
targets; geo-political drivers are cheaper fossil energy, growing oil and gas
inventories, sovereign debt problems, recent political shifts
Key Messages – Renewable Energy
1. Governmental policies are a major determinant of investment in renewable
energy in North America, currently in a climate of regulatory uncertainty
2. Today biomass is a small play in the overall renewable energy portfolio in North
America with biofuels a small part of that
3. Cellulosic biofuels at early commercialization stage in US, still a very minor play
with indication that market share will continue to grow slowly; corn bioethanol
and vegetable oil biodiesel representing over 90% of North American biofuels
4. Canada follows the US in renewable energy development due to proximity and
trade
5. Bio-economy based on forest and agriculture biomass gets little recognition in
the clean energy agenda. To date, its full potential has not been fully utilized
Contents
Global trends and the Clean Energy Agenda
Bioeconomy and the biorefinery
Biomass availability in N. A.
Technology maturity and market readiness
Wood products and sustainability
What is the Bioeconomy?
Hydrocarbon
Economy
Carbohydrate
Economy
All economic activities relating to invention, development and
production of biological processes, products and applications
(OECD).
Fuels/Chemicals Materials
Bioenergy
Biofuels
Biochemicals
Bio-materials
Functionality
Price
Supply
Functionality
Price
Supply
Renewable
Carbon Neutral
Bio-based products from forest based biomass will grow at
significantly higher rates than traditional forest products
In 2013, the US bio-based products industry was worth $369 billion and had created
1.5 million direct jobs
24
Many Pathways and Technologies Exist for the Development
of Biorefineries – based either on “Bolt-On” or “Stand-Alone”
Pathways Technologies/
Products
Pellets
Torrification
Gas turbines
Enzymatic
Pyrolysis
Gasification
Fischer/Tropsch
Biofuels
Biochemicals
Biocomposites
CTMP
Kraft
Sulphate
Sulphite
Lumber
Panel
EWP
Modified from Weyerhaeuser, Federal Way, WA
Bio-refineries are a natural extension to Pulp and Paper facilities
• Infrastructure capital savings
• Relative to greenfield
• Steam & power, water & effluent stations, warehouses, wood yards,
storage tanks, etc.
• Operating permits in place (last oil refinery permitted in
the U.S. was in mid-1970s)
• Skills of wood procurement, logistics, and biomass
handling in place
• Facilities engineered in recovering energy &
chemicals from organic/inorganic waste
• Facilities producing base chemicals (eg., NaOH, CaO, etc)
• Proximity to residuals and mill waste streams
Source: Inbicon, 2010 FPAC Bio-pathways
Borregaard’s biorefinery was a repurposed sulfite pulp mill that
evolved over time …..
• Specialty cellulose, lignin products, ethanol, yeast, yeast extracts,
vanillin, diphenols, fine chemicals
• Two biorefineries: Sapsborg, Norway & Solothurn, Switzerland
Wood
1000 kg
CO2
45kg
Ethanol
50kg
Yeast
(Switzerland)
20kg
Vanillin
(Norway)
3kg
Bioenergy (bark, side streams from the production, biogas from the
waste water treatment)
Wood
yard Digester
Bleaching plant
Ethanol
plant
Ethanol
plant
Lignin
plant
Lignin
400kg
Specialty
Cellulose
400kg
Drying
machine
Jack Saddler 2013
Transportation Fuels
Other Fuels and Products
Chemicals, Plastics, Rubber
Petroleum End-uses
70%
26%
4%
Revenues
43%
42%
15%
Can biorefineries be similar to petroleum refineries with
40% of revenues coming from 4% of their by-products?
Source: T. Werpy,
2009 BioWorld Conference
Modified by tom Browne
Key Messages – Biorefinery technology platforms
1. North American pulp mills are exploring and transitioning into Biorefineries
2. Bolt-on projects favored to reduce risk, costs and to gain synergies
3. Early initiatives are Dissolving pulp (conversion of Kraft facilities), Tall oil, Kraft
Lignin, Methanol production
4. Early entrants continue to rely heavily on significant government support and
subsidies
Contents
Global trends and the Clean Energy Agenda
Bioeconomy and the biorefinery
Biomass availability in N. A.
Technology maturity and market readiness
Wood products and sustainability
Lignocellulosic biomass is at the core of the
bio-economy…
Cellulose
Hemicellulose
Lignin
Cellulose
Paying
Capability Product
HIGH Engineered Wood
Products
Lumber
Pulp
OSB
Composite Panels
Wood Pellets
LOW Biomass
Long term nature of forest investments require full utilization of the tree and the
development of innovative bio-products
Crown: 10%
Stem: 75%
Lumber: 30%
Chips: 25%
Sawdust/shavings: 10%
Bark: 10%
Stump/Roots:15%
31
Bioproduct Paying
Capability
• Numbers represent a four-fold
increase in production of the biomass
currently consumed for bioenergy &
bio-based products.
• Available agri-based biomass is
almost 10X greater than Forest-
based biomass and is usually more
accessible and at lower cost.
• Most of the early entrants into ligno-
cellulosic bio-refineries are agri-
based bolt-ons to 1st gen bioethanol
facilities (POET DSM, Dupont,
Abengoa, BioAmber)
U.S. Supply of Biomass Could Replace One-Third of its Petroleum Consumption by
2030 – but What Are the 2nd & 3rd Order Impacts?
2016 Billion-Ton Report, DOE
Canada has 60+ million Oven Dry tons (Odt) per year surplus of Biomass,
but it is a long way from market
• Canada has considerable forest
residual biomass that could be
extracted but at what cost
• Access is difficult and cost of harvest and
transportation is high and problematic when the
end use is a low value product (white pellets)
• Crown ownership with long term
tenure system provides little benefit
for existing tenure holders to extract
residuals
• Dynamics changing in Eastern
Canada where the shut down of Pulp
& Newsprint mills has resulted in a
surplus of sawmill chips.
• Challenge will be how well these sawmill
operators will adjust with the lower price these
residues are expected to fetch in the pellet
market.
Forest-Based Resource
Mill Residue 8.8
Urban Waste 9.3
Roadside Waste 25.1
Agri-Based Resource 44.0
Total Potential Biomass 87.2
Mn. dry ton
Compilation from various Provincial Government sources
Derek Sidders, CWFC, Personal Communication
• 53% of merchantable pine in BC (~770 million
m³) has been killed.
• AAC drops from 78 million m³ to ~ 50 -60
million m³ by 2023-25
• Ramp up to past levels after 2050
• Alberta AAC expected to drop by 5 million m3 as
infestation advances east
• Other pine species have been shown to be
susceptible to attack. • Spread to Jack pine could affect the whole
boreal forest across Canada.
• Shelf- life shorter than predicted for pulp and
lumber quality: fall back options are pellet
production and power generation
The Mountain Pine Beetle has infected and/or killed over 17.5 million
hectares of Western Canadian Pine Forests
Key Messages – Biomass availability
1. Significant inventories of renewable agri-biomass are available in North
America but at what cost; forestry less so
2. Beetle-killed biomass is available in Western Canada (up to 800 million m3) but
only has a 10-15 year shelf life
3. Combination of Wood and Agricultural residues present some opportunities in
North America
Contents
Global trends and the Clean Energy Agenda
Bioeconomy and the biorefinery
Biomass availability in N. A.
Technology maturity and market readiness
Wood products and sustainability
Each bio-product value chain has its own technology
requirements, market readiness and value contribution
High Value Added
Low Value Added
Biobased
Chemicals
Bioenergy
Biobased
Materials
Immature
Technology/Low
Market Readiness
Mature
Technology/High
Market
Readiness
… each market is at a different stage of
development and represent different fiber
demand potential and different paying capacity
Wood
Products/Systems
Transportation
Biofuels
Pulp
Solid fuels are the most technologically mature but are low in value
High Value Added
Low Value Added
Anaerobic
Digestion
Gasification
Incineration /
CHP
Wood
Pellets
Pyrolysis
Torrified
Pellets
Bioenergy
Currently employed technologies
Evolving technologies
Immature technologies
Mature
Technology/High
Market
Readiness
Immature
Technology/Low
Market Readiness
Transport fuel technologies - fuels derived from ligno-cellulose will
increase the demand on the available fibre base
High Value Added
Low Value Added
BioSynGas
Fischer-Tropsch Cellulose
Fermentation
Dimethyl Ether
(via methanol)
Tall Oil
Hydro-
process
Liquid Biofuels
Pyrolysis
Liquids
Mature
Technology/High
Market
Readiness
Immature
Technology/Low
Market Readiness
Bio-based Chemicals are a natural fit as ”Bolt-on” processes at
existing Kraft Pulp Mills and using low value mill side streams
Biobutanol
Acetic Acid
High Value Added
Low Value Added
Lactic Acid
BioSyngas
Fischer-Tropsch
Liquids/Waxes
Furan
Dicarboxylic
Acid Levulinic
Acid
Benzene/
Toluene/
Xylene
Succinic
Acid
Furfural
Purified
Lignin Ethylene
(via ethanol) Methanol
Bio-based
Chemicals
Mature
Technology/High
Market
Readiness
Immature
Technology/Low
Market Readiness
Integrating into the Hybrid Chemistry Value Chain is key to growing bioproduct opportunities and a sustainable bioeconomy
Bioindustrial Innovation Canada, 2016
Top12 chemical opportunities
from carbohydrates (DOE, 2004)
Fibre
Reinforced
Composites
Next generation biomaterials now coming on-stream for new
and traditional consumer products and applications High Value Added
Low Value Added
CNC
Engineered Wood
Products/Systems
Textiles/
Wovens
Non-
Wovens
Biomaterials CF
Mature
Technology/High
Market
Readiness
Immature
Technology/Low
Market Readiness
Carbon Fibres
Key messages for biomaterials
1. Nano-material development and applications being aggressively pursued in N.A. both for
adding attributes to traditional forest products and for new applications in other sectors
2. Renewed interest in value-added applications of lignin in carbon fibres, polymer blends,
adhesives, emulsifiers, cosmetics, pharmaceutical, food and in environmental remediation, etc.
3. Engineered wood products and systems represent an immediate high volume-high value
opportunity; also has major impact in mitigating GHG emissions
4. Biomaterials, especially advanced wood products and systems showing greatest promise going
forward over the near-term
With a few exceptions, it takes 10 or more years to make significant
market penetration with a new product or substitution
McKinsey, NAHB
• Financing these projects is harder than
before as VCs are more cautious
• Government funding (grant and
repayable loans) is critical from research
to pre commercialization
• The “Valley of Death” (pre-IPO) is bigger
and deeper than ever
• Strategic relationships are vital, both for
investment and off-takes
• Racing “first to be second” means you
may miss the best partners
Bio-projects tend to have long
time horizons, big capital and
questionable returns as evidenced
by market returns
Bio-economy implications for the North American
forest products sector….
1. Bioenergy likely to remain a small piece of the renewable energy agenda and continue to be
very policy/subsidy sensitive into 2020; excellent portal into integrated biorefinery
2. Sweet spot for bio-refinery is in medium volume/ medium value-added bioproducts;
biomaterials very promising opportunity in this regard
3. Forest sector should particularly focus in areas offering highest impact on GHG mitigation
and best return on investment
4. Rising fibre costs and competing end uses will significantly impact on bio-economy and pulp
production going forward
5. Barriers to entry of bioproducts will remain high and partnerships will be essential
6. Government involvement in policies and incentives required to “kick-start” development
7. Forest Products sector reluctant to fully engage (“first to be second”); momentum will
continue to come from the agri-food sector
8. Late entrants will be impeded by IP barriers and availability of the best partners
9. Ecological service can create significant value back to the forest owner providing they can be
monetized and effectively marketed; e.g., fresh water management, air quality, carbon
sequestration and storage, carbon pricing and trading
10. Paris COP21’s inclusion of forestry as an important part of the climate change agenda
provides new opportunity
Contents
Global trends and the Clean Energy Agenda
Bioeconomy and the biorefinery
Biomass availability in N. A.
Technology maturity and market readiness
Wood products and sustainability
Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Canadian
Construction
Address an overlooked opportunity to deliver measurable and immediate carbon savings in an important Canadian sector.
LCA is the science of measuring embodied environmental
impacts from resource extraction to landfilling
LCA reports lifetime
environmental burdens like
smog creation, water pollution,
waste generation, fossil fuel
consumption and greenhouse
gas emissions.
Carbon footprint of a product is
determined by applying LCA.
LCA has been an important
sustainability tool by major
companies for about 40 years; • Coca Cola beverage containers
• Levi Strauss jeans
• P&G cold water version of Tide
• BillerudKorsnäs packaging
Athena Sustainable Materials Institute
Source: an extensive Athena Institute LCA study of mid-rise concrete buildings (see “Life cycle assessment for sustainable design of precast concrete commercial buildings in Canada,” M. Marceau et al, 2012), which is highly conservative as it is strictly core and shell and does not include finishes, furnishings, HVAC and so forth. This is the carbon footprint for a typical new 5-storey building in Toronto.
These are the carbon emissions from operating the building – mostly fossil fuel burned for heating, cooling, lighting and ventilation. These really add up over time. Architects and engineers are doing a good job of reducing this.
These are the carbon emissions from constructing the building – mostly due to materials manufacturing. This is a one-time carbon hit at the point of construction – in other words, today. Architects and engineers are completely ignoring this.
Operating energy is being addressed through energy saving strategies
but more focus has to be given to embodied energy reductions
Steel-frame Insulated concrete form
Wood-frame
How do these materials compare?
Embodied environmental impacts of various exterior wall assemblies
LCA application: material comparisons
This data was generated using the simplified LCA software tool, the Athena EcoCalculator. All walls are shown
relative to wood, which is the benchmark.
LCA Displacement Factor
When we use wood
in place of other
materials, we are
avoiding GHG
emissions – this is a
carbon credit for
wood.
The difference in GHG
between a wood option
and a non-wood option is
the GHG displacement.
+ GHG + GHG + GHG
Convert this concrete block
wall to wood and take a
GHG credit.
29 tonnes of CO2 are
captured in a typical
house. This offsets
five years of driving
the family car.
Carbon Storage: The Zero-Carbon House?
Source: FPInnovations calculation.
• On average, every metric ton
of wood used instead of
something else displaces 3.7
metric tons of CO2.
• In addition, every metric ton of
wood in use is sequestering
1.8 metric tons of CO2.
Wood substitution has significant carbon benefits
Sustainable forest management is an import first step in the wood products value chain
Canada has most of its original forest area
Canada: A World Leader in Sustainable Forestry
Forest Certification
Certification programs used in Canada are all globally recognized
Building sector emits 6% of global
emissions.
Cement manufacturing generates 5.7%
of global CO₂ emissions; has increased
over 215% in 20 years
Wood is a renewable resource
This data was generated using the simplified LCA software tool, the Athena EcoCalculator. All walls are shown relative to wood,
which is the benchmark.
On average, every metric ton of wood used
instead of something else displaces 3.7 metric
tons of CO2.
In addition, every metric ton of wood in use is
storing 1.8 metric tons of sequestered CO2.
Wood is the only mainstream building system
that offers negative C emissions
3S’s of wood products:
1. CO₂ sequestration
2. Carbon storage
3. Carbon substitution
Wood Construction systems are a solution
to a low carbon and renewable bio-economy
Achieving new heights through cooperation
Thank you McKinsey Quarterly 2015 (2)
Ian de la Roche, PhD
Faculty of Forestry
University of British Columbia
Lecture WOOD 465
UBC, Vancouver
March 14, 2017
Disruptive Technologies and Innovation