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José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoCEO and PresidentAugust, 2007
Petrobras and the Biofuels
PETROBRAS
2 2
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
Cautionary Statement for US investors
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
Cautionary Statement
3
1984 1994 2004
Total762 billion barrels
Total1.017 billion barrels
Total1.188 billion barrels
In 20 years, Latin America proven reserves increased from 36.6 billion barrels (1984) to 101 billion.Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
R/P* = 26,77 R/P* = 41,78 R/P* = 41,84
* Reserves/Production Latin America (years)
12,7%
7,6%
13,4%
5,0%
4,8%
56,5%
Middle East Europe & Eurasia AfricaNorth America Pacific Asia Latin America
7,9%
6,4%
8,8%
3,8%
8,0%
65,1%11,7%
9,4%
5,1%
3,5%
8,5%
61,8%
Latin American Share of Oil World Reserves Latin American oil reserves are becoming increasingly important
4
Source: Internacional Energy Agency Reference Scenario
Net Oil Availability
Mbpd
Latin America
Russia
AsiaUnited StatesOECD(- Mexico)
Projected growth in oil production and demand suggests balance and independence of supply from politically unstable regions
Includes Bitumen and non-conventionals, including synthetic oils.
5
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Gas Rich Region with limited infrastructureProven Reserves as of January 1, 2005
14.5 Tcf
26.1 Tcf
Brazil
Argentina
Perú
Mexico
Venezuela
26.1 TcfBolivia
11.7 Tcf
17.7Tcf
152 Tcf 19.4 Tcf
Trinidad
2005 GasProven ReservesWorld:179,8 T m3
South and Central America:7,02 T m3
0.41 T m3
4.3 T m30.55 T m3
0.74 T m3
0.33 T m3
0.74 T m3
0.50 T m3But:::: Will require increasing energy
integration and::: Substantial investments in
infrastructure covering great distances and environmentally sensitive regions
Ample gas reserves will allow for:::: Regional growth in consumption
substituting some demand for oil::: Higher exports of liquids
6
Production X Demand X Refining Capacity: Reaching Self-Sufficiency
112,197,670,449,355,356,216,719,532,228,430,53,0
2011F20062000199519901985198019751970196519601955Production/ Consumption
(%)
1954 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2011
THO
USA
ND
BPD
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Production
Consumption
Refining
Brazil: first major market to shift from import dependency to self sufficiency since first oil from North Sea in 1971 began to shift european balance
Proj.
7
A Track Record of Growth
2.374
2.812
5 5 1
7 2 4
7 4 2
1 8 5
2 7 8
3 8 3
2 0 1 5
F o r e c a s t
1004 11321271 1336
1500 1540 1493
163179
197221
232
252 250 265
1684 1778
809 869
274 277
152
O i l a n d N G L - B r a z i l N a t u r a l G a s - B r a z i l
O i l a n d N G L - I n t e r n a c i o n a l N a t u r a l G a s - I n t e r n a c i o n a l
1,565 1,636
1,810
2,2172,298
2,036 2,020
1,2381,090
1,405
1,008
3,493
4,5568,7% p.y.
7.9% p.y.
In Thousand boed
1996 2001 2006 2011
2015
Brazil is the 1st country to reap benefits from Ethanol
Accumulated effective economy:1 Billion boe ~US$ 52 bi
During this period, ethanol
utilization saved 644 million ton.
of CO2 emission
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20041972
CNG
ETHANOL
GASOLINE
120000
140000
160000
10000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1000
BEP
PROÁLCOOLAlcohol Vehicles
Beginning of the sector deregulation
Source: MME, BEN 2006
End of regulation 1999 FFV
Alcohol Exports 2005
Because program is government regulated there are no benefits from KT but benefitsof reduction in CO2 emissions have already materialized;
Used up to 10% in petrol, ethanol substitutes lead and MTBE as an oxygenate, withour any change in engines, without harmo to air or groundwater
9
Ethanol can be introduced also as a partial or full substitute for petrol: up to 25% (Brazil) partial motor adjustments require participation of automobile industry; up to/over 85% requires flex-fuel vehicles, consumer preference (price/performance).
Source:Henry Joseph Jr. ANFAVEA - Volkswagen
Ethanol
10
• A strong increase in the demand for ethanol is expected;• Ethanol as a substitute to Lead and MTBE•This amount of future consume may be levered if new countries adhere the compulsive blend with ethanol.
Source: F.O. LICHT, 2004
Strong Increase in Demand
Clean Air Act
Lead Substitution
MTBE Substitution
Renewable Fuels Standard
Etha
nol G
loba
l Dem
and
(Milli
on lit
ers/Y
ear)
Demand Overview
11
•Only in the US, a 5.7% addition of ethanol the gasoline would translate into a consumption of 30 billion liters of ethanol per year.
Souce: EIA/DOE; Comissão Européia; FO Licht; Copersucar
A PROMISING MARKET
Total: 31.1 billion liters
Potential demand considering 5% ethanol addition to the gasoline formula5%0.7Thailand
Percentage approved only in some regions5%?India
Potential demand considering 5% ethanol addition to the gasoline formula in 20115%7.4EU
Potential demand considering 10% ethanol addition to the gasoline formula10%4.5China
Expected demand in 2012, according with the Renewables Fuels Law-16.8US
Potential demand considering 3% ethanol addition to the gasoline formula3%1.7Japan
CommentEthanol addition
Potential demand(Billion liters)Country
Demand Overview
12
•Biofuels usage can reduce CO2 emissions at a 5:1 rate;•Besides being a cleaner source of energy, sugar cane ethanol produces 8,3 more energy than the fossil energy used in its production process. Ethanol usage in Brazil has decreased the emission of Greenhouse Effect Gases at 13% (1994 data);•Sugar-cane is the most productive among ethanol raw materials and the production of ethanol has limited affect on food supply.
Energetic balance - Ethanol
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sugarcane
Wheat Beet-root
Corn
O Etanol contribui para a redução do aquecimento globalEn
erge
tic ra
tio
Source: World Watch Institute
Ethanol Productivity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
sugar-cane- Brazil
sugar-beet- EU
sugar-cane- India
corn - USA wheat - EU
liter
s pe
r hec
tar
Demand Overview
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
US$
/GJ
2002
Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline price
Quais seriam os motivos do diferencial de produtividade brasileira ?
1980 199519901985 2002
Source: Goldemberg 2004
*Source: Volkswagen (Brazil) - Presentation prepared for review within The Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering at Sydney University
Ethanol Engine Relative Performance*
Price Reduction
103,3% 110,0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Power
Gasoline 100% Gasohol 22% Ethanol 100%
110,0%
132,4%
Consumption
Greater production cost reduction when compared
to gasoline.
14Source: Ministry for the Development of Industry and Commerce
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
Export Revenues - F.O.B. Exports (secondary axis)
Brazilian ethanol exports increased sharply in the last three years, resulting in US$ 1.6 billionexport revenues in 2006.
US$
Mill
ion
F.O
.B.
Bill
ion
Lite
rs
2003-2006: 352% increase
Supply Overview – Brazilian Ethanol Exports
15
Brazil35%
The potential to expand world production is enormous
North and Central America
37%
South America38%
Asia16.2%
Europe9.8%
Current Market Distribution of World Consumption
Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billions LitersEthanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billions Liters, or 67% of total ethanol production
Today the ethanol consumption is 2,6% of gasoline MKTIncreasing ethanol to 10% of gasoline will represent 118 Billions Lt
15
Supply Overview
16Source: World Energy Outlook 2006
• World Supply of Biomass and Waste reached 1,176 Mtoe in 2004 (10% of total supply);
• According to the International Energy Agency Reference Scenario, it will reach 1,645 Mtoe in 2030, an increase of 1.3% p.a., still representing 10% of total supply.
35
25
21
6
10
2 1
Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Biomass andWaste
Hydro OtherRenewables
Shar
es (%
)
Non-Renewables
Renewables
2004 13%
87%
Supply Overview - Increase in the supply of Biofuels
17
1,023
77
42
Oil Bio Other
659132
45
Oil Bio Other
36%
16%
4%
2%
5%
9%
4%
18%
5%
United States
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Other OECD
Brazil
China
India
Other Asia
Rest of World
Reference Increase in Demand 2004-2030 (mtoe)
Alternative Increase in Demand 2004-2030 (mtoe)
Bio 2004-2030Reference - Alternative
But transport sector can still contribute to emission reductions(IEA alternative scenario)
Increased use of renewable fuels can contribute to reduce projected increase in energy for transport by 7 %, to 15 % if adequate policies followed.
The direct benefits in emission reductions would be equally distributed between US, Europe OECD and the rest of the world
Total: 1,142 mtoe Total: 836 mtoe
18Source: World Energy Outlook 2006
Brazil’s AdvantagesAverage production costs are projected to drop by around a third between 2005 and 2030.
• Ethanol production costs vary widely across countries, mainly due to climatic factors: crop production costs are much lower in tropical countries.
• According to the IEA, costs in Europe and the United States would be significantly higher without crop and ethanol subsidies.
19
Diferenças de produtividade na cana de açúcar
Source: FAO
0,2
0,6
1,7
2,2
Asia andPacific
Europe NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Potential Arable Land
(1.000 ha per capita)
61,455,6
48,6
13,9
Asia andPacific
Europe NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
% of Potential Arable Land actually in use
•Availability of lands, water and low labor cost also benefit production in Central and South America. Latin America has the largest potential arable
land per capita and only uses 13,9% of it.
72,4169,34 71,13 73
67,77
Asia USA CentralAmerica
SouthAmerica
Brazil
Sugar-Cane Productivity
Yield per Hectare
1000
Kg/
Ha
World Average
Latin America offers excellent potential to increase ethanol production
20
Diferenças de produtividade na cana de açúcar
• 33% of the world’s internal renewable water resources are concentrated in Latin America;
Internal renewable water resources
(m³ per capita – 1997)
6.984
27.673
33.097
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
World Latin America andCaribbean
Brazil
Source: FAO
73%
19%
9%
20%
9%71%
Agriculture Domestic Industrial
21%
18%
61%
Brazil
World
Latin America andCaribbean
Annual water use by sector
Latin America’s Advantages
21
Primary BaseSecondary BaseCollection Centers
RailwaysInland Navigation
RoadMulti product pipelines
Large scale marine terminals improveefficiencyLarge storage capacitynecessary to regulatesupplyPipelines reducetransport costs; improveenergy efficiency
Ethanol collection, storage and
distribution centersare spread out
through producingand consuming
regions
Ethanol Logistics System in Brazil
21
22
José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoCEO and PresidentAugust, 2007
Petrobras and the Biofuels