BIG DATA in a small world

Alessandro PanconesiInformatica

THE STARS

PEOPLE

The INTERNET is an observatory on Crowds

A Paradigm Shift

A Paradigm Shift

COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE?

A CLASSIC REVISITED

Outcome

30% of the letters reached the target

Average (median) chain length was roughly six

Conjectures

Take any two people in the world, and they will be connected by a very short chain of acquaintances

A matter of scale

300

A matter of scale

300 60,000

A matter of scale

300 60,000 230,000,000

A matter of scale

300 60,000 750,000,000230,000,000

A matter of scale

300 60,000 750,000,000230,000,000

Non trivial computational issues

MORE PREDICTIVE POWER?

Google Flu Trends

Nature 457, 1012-1014 (2009)

DENGUE FEVER

Quack Oil?

More Evidence

MoviesHitsStocks?…

ETHICAL ISSUES

No one would have believed in the first years of the XXI century that this world was being watched keenly and closely by

awesome computing and financial powers; that as people busied themselves about their various concerns they were

scrutinised and studied, perhaps almost as narrowly as a person with a microscope might scrutinise the transient creatures that

swarm and multiply in a drop of water. …

Adapted from “The War of the Worlds” by H.G.Wells

All'inizio del XXI secolo nessuno avrebbe mai creduto che il nostro pianeta fosse sotto osservazione da parte di entità

cibernetico-finanziarie di inimmaginabile potenza e che mentre l'umanità si affaccendava nella sua quotidianità i suoi movimenti venivano osservati da vicino da occhi cupidi, allo steso modo in

cui i batteri che pullulano e si moltiplicano sono studiati attentamente al microscopio…

Adapted from “The War of the Worlds” by H.G.Wells

FINAL REMARKS

• Paradigm shift in the social sciences?• Computational Statistics (more predictive

power)• Hybrid science: data processing CANNOT be

naïve• New algorithms are the key• Ethical caveats apply (privacy etc)

THANKS