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Big Data & Big Trends
Yerevan, November 14, 2018@wolfgangfengler
#chainpoint18
Already today, there is more data than grains of sand
2010 2015
Percentage of uncertain data
Sensors & Devices
VoIP
Enterprise Data
Social Media
1023
The Emergence of Big Data: from zero to 100 sextillion in five years
Source: IBM
Big Shifts
Number of people in the world
7,6b
Population growth is slowing down rapidly
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Incr
ease
in th
e w
orl
d’s
po
pu
lati
on
(per
cen
t) 1968
2018
Despite the recent UN projections, we may not reach 10 billion …
IIASA Medium Scenario
UN Median (2015)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Po
pu
lati
on
in B
illio
ns
Post Secondary
Upper Secondary
Lower Secondary
Primary
Incomp. Primary
No Education
Pop < 15 yrs
Source: IASA projections
… because education reduces fertility
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Ethiopia 2011 Kenya 2008 Bolivia 2008 Burkina Faso2010
Niger 2012 Nigeria 2013 Pakistan 2012 Egypt 2014 Indonesia2012
Maldives2009
Tota
l Fe
rtil
ity
Rat
eNo education
Primary
Secondary or higher
Source: IASA calculations based on DHS
Shift 1. From Young to Old
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
prop
orti
on (
%)
15-64 yo
0-14 yo
65+ yo
Shift 2. From rural to urbanExample: Kenya
12
Shift 3. From Europe to Africa
Africa
Asia
Europe
Americas
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
% o
f glo
ba
l po
pula
tio
n
Shift 4. From low to high education
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Popu
lati
on i
n B
illio
ns
No Education Primary Secondary Post Secondary
Shift 5. From poor to Middle Class
0 $1.90
N
GDP growth per capita
Modelling income in real-time
3.2BN
3.6BN
600M+ Poor
Vulnerable
Middle Class Upper Class200M
1/sec 5/sec 0.5/sec
How many people are entering theglobal Middle Class each second?
3.8 BN = 3.8 BN
20182028
Thank you
@wolfgangfengler
