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BIG DATA AND CYBERDIPLOMATS
BIG OPPORTUNITIES OR
BIG PROBLEMS?
W. Edwards Deming once said: “In God we trust;
all others must bring data” (Wael Ghonim)
dott. Francesco Vitali - Webinar 11-10-2013 © 2013 Francesco Vitali
EVERYTHING IS DATA
Using a byte as the unit of measurement, we have the following: kilobyte kB 103, megabyte MB 106, gigabyte GB 109,
terabyte TB 1012, petabyte PB 1015, exabyte EB 1018, zettabyte ZB 1021, yottabyte YB 1024
BIG DATA: collections of data measured in petabytes, exabytes, zettabytes,
vast amounts of information which can no longer be stored and analysed in
standard databases using traditional tools.
2012: From iPv4 to iPv6
Ipv4 was based on 32-bit codes,
and so was “only” able to handle
4.3 billion numerical addresses,
too few for today’s needs.
Ipv6, based on 128 bit codes, will
be able to handle 2128 (around
340 billion billion billion billion)
addresses!
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
Smartphones
Tablets
M2M
Smart watch
Kindle like
Kinects like
....
SENSORS’ TIME
ENABLING OBJECTS:
GRIDS..
electricity smart grid
smart video surveillance systems
electronic payment instruments, from standard mobile to NFC
Geolocalisation nets (triangulation of cellular networks ,Wi-Fi networks, or GPS, or RFID)
…
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
THE THREE DIMENSIONS
1. CIVIL SERVANT -- (JOB RELATED)
2. INDIVIDUAL -- (ONE)
3. CONNECTED PERSON -- (THE WORLD: PERSONAL & JOB RELATED)
THE DIPLOMAT “IN” THE GAME
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
NEW GEOGRAPHICAL CONCEPTS
Relations
Exchanges
Movements
Sharing of interests
Centres of influence
…
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
EVERY DAY FUNNY QUESTIONS :
- Pardon, can I hold your wallet and agenda?
- Can I listen to your phone call to help you?
- Can I get your private picture?
- Can I download your diplomatic appointments and all
you private contacts in order to alert you on your friends’
birthday?
- Can I follow you, to suggest you the nearest pizzeria?
PLEASE, HAVE MY WALLET!
THE ECONOMIC GAME
VS FANTASTIC
BENEFITS
HIDDEN
COSTS
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
• information about appointments
• a complete contact list (sometimes with pictures)
• private and work correspondence
• photographs accompanied by a host of metadata
• films watched and music listened to
• data on bank accounts accessed online
• payments made through technologies integrated with one’s mobile phone
• books or articles read
• fingerprints (?!)
GET EVERYTHING… THE SURFACE LEVEL (!)
HACK? CYBER THREATS?
NO… YOU ACCEPT!!
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
• information about health
• facial expressions’ reading
• spatial movements
• eyes and gaze movements tracker
Key data for determining appropriate “collative
stimuli” or for gaining a better understanding
of what our “executive attention” is influenced
by, or for determining the type of routine that
we adopt…
APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY
AND NEUROSCIENCE
Effects…
o Data “enrichment” and the de-
anonymisation process
o Data cross-referencing from real world and
online world
o …
Need to cross reference:
o Pattern-Based Aggregation algorithms
o Sentiment Classification algorithms
o Genetic algorithms and neural networks
“BASIC” NEW STATISTICAL
TECHNIQUES
GIVE ME YOUR EYES
LONG TERM - REAL TIME – MONITORING
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
1) THE TIME FOR MULTIPLE IDENTITIES IS OVER
2) STATISTICAL SAMPLING VS ENTIRE POPULATION ANALYSIS
3) PERSONAL DATA.. IN CONNECTION
The value is not only in
personal data… but it is given
by the connection of my
personal data with those of the
other people…
A) Time
B) connection with “real” life
Every SINGLE INDIVIDUAL has become analyzable both in terms of his or her
UNIQUENESS and in terms of his or her SOCIAL BEHAVIOR in virtual
aggregations (see social networks) or in real aggregations (as in the case of
demonstrations) with other individuals.
DATABASE MATCHING
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
ATTACK
- AGAINTS THE INDIVIDUAL - THE DIPLOMAT
- AGAINTS A COLLECTIVE GROUP/AUDIENCE
WHAT IF THE TARGET IS “YOU”?
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
TO BE OR NOT TO BE… CONNECTED?!
FAKE OPTION … Who is not connected.. just doesn’t exist
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
Companies are transferring client
databases, financial services, Crm
(customer relationship management),
cash flow monitoring data and inventory
management …
THE CLOUD COMPUTING HOLE
Ordinary citizens, almost always
unbeknownst to them, are
transferring a clone of their
lives….
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
PLAIN GOOD INTELLIGENCE: DATA CONTROL
The European Union case
The Brazilian case
The “normal intelligence control” of the President and of energetic
key players… but what about the population?
Rousseff’s communications were
monitored to figure out if the Brazil
was… friend, enemy, problem
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
THE BIG DATA ERA: the capacity to monitor reactions to specific
events in real time at the outset… and to influence them
ADVANCE INTELLIGENCE
UNDERSTANDING THE WAVE & FORECASTING THE CLIMAX
Most information is made
accessible by users or sent
automatically by machines.
The Arab spring case
The killer application
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
E.g. of Darpa, Iarpa and their sisters’ projects
The FUTUREMAP Project (Futures Markets Applied to Prediction)
Crowdsourcing for Intelligence
Social Media in Strategic Communication programme
CREATING AND PREVENTING STRATEGIC SURPRISE
In 2011 it launched a call for tenders for
research projects to fund “revolutionary”
projects in the field of strategic
communications on social networks,
developing new sciences and technologies,
with the aim of “creating and averting
unexpected events in the strategic sphere”
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
ABILITY TO USE THE DATA
A NEW KEY GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC POWER FACTOR
NEW WORLD ORDER
Countries – Multinationals (?)
countries able to exercise control through external assistance
countries equipped with autonomous control tools
countries capable of progressing from control to forecasting and manipulation of
individual and social behavior
© 2013 Francesco Vitali
Global iP traffic is forecast to quadruple over the 2011–2016 five-year period, from 369
exabytes of data transmitted to 1.3 zettabytes (110 exabytes per month)
In 2016 the Asia-Pacific region will account for most iP traffic (40.5 exabytes per
month), outstripping North America (27.5 exabytes per month)
The greatest growth rate will not be in global fixed Ip data traffic, but in wireless
networks
In 2016 global mobile data traffic will increase 18 times over the volume recorded in
2011, reaching a monthly volume of approximately 10.8 exabytes (10,804,321 terabytes).
Over 10 billion mobile Internet devices
connected: over 8 billion mobile devices will be
connected and approximately 2 billion M2M
module connections
The flow of mobile data in the Middle East
and Africa, between 2011 and 2016, will
increase 36 times.
SOME FORECASTS ABOUT IP TRAFFIC (2011-2016)
© 2013 Francesco Vitali