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BeyondtheDowntownEastside:
Dr.PennyGurstein,PhD,DirectorandProfessorNathanEdelson,AdjunctProfessorJeremyStone,PhDCandidateKarlaKloepper,MAPCandidateRileyIwamoto,MAPCandidate
ARegionalPerspecGveonAffordability,DisplacementandSocialJusGce
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 1 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
ProjectOverview
1. Background–BeyondtheDowntownEastside2. ResearchQuesGons3. Methodology4. FindingsToDate–4CaseStudies5. EmergingThemes6. NextSteps7. Discussion
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 2 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
BeyondtheDowntownEastside
Vancouver
North Vancouver
Map:IncidenceofLICO-BT,1991
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 3 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
ResearchQues9ons
R1)RegionalRestructuringTrends:WherearethepoorintheVancouvermetropolitanregion?
R2)PoliciesandPrograms:WhatplanningapproachesarebeingusedtomiGgate(orexacerbate)thespaGaldislocaGonoflow-andmoderate-incomehouseholdsinthesecommuniGes?
R3)PoliciesandPrograms:HowcanwesupportthedevelopmentofaregionalconsensustoprotectexisGng(ordevelopreplacement)low-incomehousinginneighbourhoodsfacingredevelopmentpressures?
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 4 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Methodology
1. Literaturereview2. QuanGtaGveAnalysis3. QualitaGveAnalysis– Mediaanalysis– Expertandstakeholderinterviews
4. RegionalSupportNetwork– Workshopsandregionallearningevents
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 5 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Quan9ta9veAnalysis:ChallengesandConsidera9ons
• Difficultycomparingpre-2006censusand2011NaGonalHouseholdSurvey
• Limiteddataavailableatscalesmallerthancensustract
• Challengeofneighbourhood-basedplanningacrosscensustracts
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 6 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Delta
Surrey
Richmond
Vancouver
Coquitlam
BurnabyMaple Ridge
Langley Township
Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
New West
Belcarra
North Vancouver
Langley City
0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines
NoData
<10%
10-15%
15-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
>50%
Incidence of LICO - 1991 - Metro Vancouver
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 7 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Delta
Surrey
Richmond
Vancouver
Coquitlam
BurnabyMaple Ridge
Langley Township
Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
New West
Belcarra
North Vancouver
Langley City
0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines
NoData
0-500
501-1000
1001-2000
2001-3000
3001-4000
4001-5000
Individuals Below LICO Before-Tax 1991 - Metro Vancouver
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 8 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Delta
Surrey
Richmond
Vancouver
Coquitlam
BurnabyMaple Ridge
Langley Township
Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
New West
Belcarra
North Vancouver
Langley City
0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines
NoData
<10%
10-15%
15-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
>50%
Incidence of LICO Before Tax - 2006 - Metro Vancouver
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 9 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Delta
Surrey
Richmond
Vancouver
Coquitlam
BurnabyMaple Ridge
Langley Township
Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
New West
Belcarra
North Vancouver
Langley City
0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines
NoData
0-500
501-1000
1001-2000
2001-3000
3001-4000
4001-5000
Individuals Below LICO Before-Tax 2006 - Metro Vancouver
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 10 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Delta
Surrey
Richmond
Vancouver
Coquitlam
BurnabyMaple Ridge
Langley Township
Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
New West
Belcarra
North Vancouver
Langley City
0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines
NoData
> -25%
-15% to -25%
-10% to -15%
-5% to -10%
0% to -5%
0% to 5%
5% to 10%
10% to 15%
Change in LICO Incidence 1991-2006 (1991 Census Tracts) - Metro Vancouver
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 11 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Delta
Surrey
Richmond
Vancouver
Coquitlam
BurnabyMaple Ridge
Langley Township
Pitt Meadows
North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
New West
Belcarra
North Vancouver
Langley City
0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines
NoData
-500 or more
-100 to -499
0 to -99
1 to 100
101 to 500
501 to 1000
1001 to2500
2501 to 5000
more than 5000
Change in Private Household Population Under LICO 1991-2006 (1991 Census Tracts) - Metro Vancouver
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 12 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Quan9ta9veAnalysis:KeyTake-Aways
• %ofpeopleunderLICOhasincreased(1991:17.4%;2006:20.8%)
• DistribuGonofpeopleunderLICOisspreadingoutoftheurbancore
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 13 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Qualita9veAnalysis
• ComplementexisGngquanGtaGvedataatcensustractlevel
• MediaanalysisofarGclesinlocalnewssources
• 10expertinterviewswithpoliGcians,plannerswithmunicipalandregionalgovernments,andrepresentaGvesfromadvocacyandcivilsocietygroups
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 14 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Burnaby
VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328BurnabyPopula9on:223,218
2011
BurnabyPopula9onunderLICO1991:28,735(18.5%)BurnabyPopula9onunderLICO2006:51,038(25.5%)
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 15 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Burnaby
Po
New West
CaseStudy:Burnaby
Wherearethepoor:
• Metrotown:MURBhousinginMaywoodneighbourhood
• Edmonds:secondarysuites,HighgateVillage
• Burquitlam,LougheedTownCentre
Image:IncidenceofLICO-BT,2006
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 16 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Burnaby
• Whoarethepoor:– Inmedia:families,lone-parentfamilies,refugees– Inpolicydialogues:newcomerfamilies,refugees– Inthecensus:
• PoliGcsandPolicy:– Burnabyreceiving16%ofBCrefugeeseilements(2013)– NotablepoliGcalshijfromstrongcivicprideinnon-markethousing(1970s-1990s)tonoinvestmentinnon-markethousing(1990s-present)
– Zoningamendmentstoallowforrapidredevelopmentofmedium-densityrentalhousingstock(2011)
– UniquelevelofcoordinaGonandpartnershipamongstserviceprovidersduetocityinvolvement
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 17 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Surrey
VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328SurreyPopula9on:468,251
2011
SurreyPopula9onUnderLICO,1991:37,920(15.7%)SurreyPopula9onUnderLICO,2006:70,450(18%)
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 18 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Surrey
New West
CaseStudy:Surrey
Wherearethepoor:• SurreyCentral,GuilfordTownCentre
• Whalley,Newton
Image:IncidenceofLICO-BT,2006
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 19 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Surrey
• Whoarethepoor:– Inmedia:homelesslow-incomesingles,families,lone-parentfamilies,childrenlivinginpoverty
– Inpolicydialogues:Female-headedhouseholds,workingpoor,low-incomeAboriginalpeople
– Comparedtocensus:
• PoliGcsandPolicy:– Surreyisunderservedbyserviceproviders,transit– Veryhighgrowthmakesserviceprovisiondifficult–laginlevelsofgovernment,funding
– Stateddifficultyinleveraginglandlijalongrapidtransitcorridorasmarkethasnot‘caughtup’yet–createsproblemsinfundingameniGes
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 20 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Richmond
VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328RichmondPopula9on:190,473
2011
RichmondPopula9onUnderLICO,1991:18,980(15.2%)RichmondPopula9onUnderLICO,2006:45,208(26.1%)
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 21 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Richmond
CaseStudy:Richmond
Wherearethepoor:
• Hardtosay–challengewithincomereporGnginhigher-incomeareaswithhighproporGonofnewCanadians(eg.TerraNova,Thompson)
• homelessencampmentalongFraserRivernorthofBridgeport
Image:IncidenceofLICO-BT,2006
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 22 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Richmond
• Whoarethepoor:– Inpolicydialogues:howtounpackincomeinformaGonversusrealneed?
– Inmedia:– Comparedtothecensus:
• PoliGcsandPolicies– Veryprogressiveandaggressivehousingpolicies– InconsistenciesofincomestaGsGcsmakedata-drivenplanningchallenging–Councilcanrefuteideathatthereare“poor”inRichmond
– FastgrowthhasmadeithardforCitytoleverageasmuchvalueaspossiblefromredevelopments
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 23 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Tri-Ci9es
VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328Tri-Ci9esPopula9on,2011:215,773
2011
Tri-Ci9esPopula9onUnderLICO,1991:Tri-Ci9esPopula9onUnderLICO,2006:
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 24 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Tri-Ci9es
Wherearethepoor:
• Burquitlam:MURBhousing
• AusGnHeights
• HomelessCamps:woodedareasalongtheFraserRiver
Coquitlam
P
Anmore
Port Moody
Port Coquitlam
carra
Image:IncidenceofLICO-BT,2006
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 25 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
CaseStudy:Tri-Ci9es
• Whoarethepoor:– Inmedia:low-incomepeopleatriskduetorisingrents;peoplerequiringspecificcaresuchasseniorsandpeoplewithdisabiliGes
– Inpolicydialogues:homelesslow-incomesingles,low-incomefamilies,low-incomerenters
– Comparedtothecensus:• PoliGcsandPolicies
– Tri-cityapproachtohousingandhomelessness,butvariableresponsesfromthethreemunicipaliGes
– QuesGonofcapacity:somemunicipaliGeshavelimitedsocialplanningfuncGons
– PendingimpactoftheEvergreenlinedevelopment;acknowledgementthatlocaGonschoseninpartbasedonlandvalue
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 26 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
EmergingThemes
• NumberandDistribuGonoflow-incomepeople– Movementoutoftheurbancore– OverallregionalincreaseinpeopleunderLICO
• DataLimitaGons– MoreofafocusontheneighborhoodlevelisneededandmustincludequanGtaGvedatapluslocalknowledge
• Vancouver’sexperience– HighprofilepoliGcsanddevelopmentparadigmsdominateourregionalimage,butishighlycontext-specific
– NeedmorecomparaGveresearchacrosstheregion
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 27 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
EmergingThemes
• Dichotomyoftransitplanningandpro-poor/socialjusGceconversaGons– EmergingimplicaGons:rapidtransitfundedbydevelopmentarepurnglow-incomecommuniGesatrisk
– Currently,nopoliGcalconsensusonhowtomanagethis– Needforaclearpolicydiscussion
• RegionalGovernance– CurrentregionalplanningframeworkwasdevelopedinadifferentpoliGcalandeconomiccontext
– Now:needforamoreharmonized,elasGcapproachtofundingallocaGonandserviceprovisionfromseniorlevelsofgovernment
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 28 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
NextSteps
• Spring2016–dataanalysisandmapping• Latespring2016–workshopsandregionallearningevents
• Summer2016–SubmissionoffinalstudytoNeighbourhoodChangeResearchPartnership
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 29 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]
Discussion
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation Page 30 of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]