Beyond Dangerous - The Global Climate & Energy Dilemma

Beyond DangerousThe Global Climate & Energy Dilemma

- emergency action & integrated solutions - Population, Resources & Climate ChangeImplications for Australias Near Future2013 Fenner ConferenceCanberra

11th October 2013

Ian T. DunlopDirector Australia 21Member, Club of RomeChairman, Safe Climate AustraliaFellow, Centre for Policy DevelopmentAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil

1 Ian Dunlop 2013

1Hornsby Model Engineers, 24th July 2012 Ian T DunlopClimate Change, Peak Oil & Global Sustainability- the case for emergency action World Population- a unique point in history - Source: J.E.Cohen, Columbia University, New York, 2005

Where to ?BCAD21945 An Empty WorldA Full World?Key Driver Ian Dunlop 2013 Climate Change: the case for emergency action Dutchlink AGM, Sydney 28th November 2011 itdunlop@ozemail.com.au2Negotiating the RapidsGrowthTimeCollapseSustainable2008?The Rapids of Creative Destruction3---- 20th Century ------ 21st Century -------------------------The Challenge Ian Dunlop 2013 Converging LimitsWaterPeak Oil& declining EROEIClimate ChangeAll Symptoms of an unsustainable World

- and all inextricably linked FoodFinancial & SocialInstability4Global Risk Management Ian Dunlop 2013 4Dutchlink AGM, Sydney 28th November 2011 NSW Parliament House, SydneyClimate Change: the case for emergency action Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases4C of warming: consequence of current government policy commitments +4CLikely loss over time of all ice sheets. No ice sheets on planet = 70 metre sea-level rise

+2CPaleoclimate History

5Source: Paleoclimate, Energy Imbalances & Milankovic papers, James Hansen et al, GISS NASA 2011. Likely loss over time of Greenland & West Antarctic ice sheets = 6-7 metre sea-level rise+4CPETM 55 million years ago.Climate Ian Dunlop 2013 5Implications6The official objective, of limiting warming to less than 20C above pre-industrial levels, is likely to produce 6-7m sea level rise over time, wiping out major global cities in their current form.

Current policies, if implemented, are likely to result in temperature increase above 40C and produce sea level rise of 70m over time, with catastrophic impact on humanity

ClimateSource:informationisbeautiful.net 2013 Ian Dunlop 2013

Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.Global Surface Temperature Changes7Arctic and West Antarctica are warming fastestClimate Ian Dunlop 2013 7Sydney Lyceum Club, 10th February 2011Ian T DunlopClimate Change & Energy Security - the case for emergency actionThe evidence - Arctic Sea Ice Volume- accelerating melt ice free in summer by 2015 ?- ice free all year by 2030 ? Source: Neven et al, PIOMAS, University of Washington 20138Sea Ice VolumeKm3Years 1979 2012 actualsMonths- actual volumeMonths forecastquadratic trendClimate

Ian Dunlop 2013 8The evidence Greenland Ice Sheet

9Climate

Insufficient data over a long enough period as yet, but if current trends of an exponential ice mass loss rate are confirmed:

10 yr doubling time (green line) would lead to 1metre sea level rise by 2067 & 5 metres by 2090

- 5 yr doubling time (red line) would lead to 1 metre sea level rise by 2045 and 5 metres by 2057 Source: Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss; Exponential?, J Hansen & M Sato, GISS, December 2012 Ian Dunlop 2013 9Potential Climate Tipping Points 10

Source: Schellnhuber, after Lenton et al, PNAS, 2008Climate Ian Dunlop 2013 Climate Change: the case for emergency action Dutchlink AGM, Sydney 28th November 2011 Ian T Dunlop10Implications

11ClimateWe have probably already passed climatic tipping points at the0.8oC warming already experienced, let alone the additional 1.2oCto which we are committed by virtue of historic emissions.

This was not supposed to happen until end-21C

Without emergency action to avert the worst impacts, this is likely to trigger sooner or later :

irreversible runaway warming globally - with counter-intuitive regional variations rapid sea-level rise permafrost melt leading to increased methane & CO2 emissions potential slow-down of North Atlantic thermohaline conveyor with major impact on European climate severe implications globally

The 2oC target is too high. Our inaction is probably locking in these changes today Ian Dunlop 2013 The Full Impact of Climate Change

12Climate

Source: Prof. Tony McMichael AO, ANU Ian Dunlop 2013 Much talk about adaptation to 4oC- what does it really mean ?13What is the difference between a 2oC world and a 4oC world?Human CivilisationA 4oC temperature increase probably means a global carrying capacity below 1 billion people Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, June 2011

In such a 4oC world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world UK Royal Society January 2011 ClimateThere is no certainty that adaptation to a 4oC world is possible. The projected 4oC warming simply must not be allowed to occurTurn Down the Heat, World Bank, 19th November 2012 It's extremely unlikely that we wouldn't have mass death at 40C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 40C, 50C or 60C, you might have half a billion people surviving.Kevin Anderson, Deputy Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2009 Ian Dunlop 2013 World Energy Outlook 201114Source: World Energy Outlook, Nov 2011, International Energy Agency The world is currently following a trajectory which will increase temperature by 6oC relative to today, for which the energy sector is largely responsible. If that is allowed to happen, we are all in troubleFatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency, March 2012World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the New Policies ScenarioEnergy

Ian Dunlop 2013 14Fossil Fuels - Cumulative World Consumption- 3083 billion boe since 1850 15

Current forecasts estimate the world will use, in 24 years from 2011-35, around 70% of all fossil fuels ever consumed (EIA, IEA Scenarios 2012) This is simply suicidal EnergySource: Grubler :Technology & Global Change, 1998, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 Ian Dunlop 2013 World Energy Outlook 2011- conventional oil peaked in 2005 -16Source: World Energy Outlook, Nov 2011, International Energy Agency4 Saudi Arabias are required by 2035 to just maintain current supply highly unlikely, and unconventionals will not solve it World Oil Production by Type in the New Policies ScenarioEnergy

We are now scraping the bottom of the proverbial barrel

Ian Dunlop 2013 16Oil Availability Official Future 2013 - abundant resources, but far more expensive 17Source: IEA - Resources to Reserves 2013

and environmentally problematic Energy

Ian Dunlop 2013 Club of Rome, Master ClassAmsterdam, 26th October, 2009itdunlop@ozemail.com.au17What matters is not resources, but sustainable oil flows to market that is increasingly difficult: Not discovering new oilfields quickly enoughcertainly no giant fields

Data on existing oil reserves is suspectparticularly in the Middle East - the paper barrels

Many established oil provinces are in declinedepletion rates may be more rapid than officially admitted

Unconventional resources proving difficult to developtechnically, economically & environmentally

Oil producing nations using more oil domestically & exporting lessconserving for future generations

18Energy Ian Dunlop 2013 Club of Rome, Master ClassAmsterdam, 26th October, 2009itdunlop@ozemail.com.au18 Energy Return on Energy Invested is dropping rapidly - conventional economic growth cannot be sustained 19Source: Murphy & Hall 2010Energy

EROEI to maintain industrial civilisation is around 10:1 Ian Dunlop 2013 19Climate & Energy are Inextricably Linked- global carbon budget to avoid dangerous climate change 20So why are we continuing to explore for fossil fuels?

From 2011 onwards, we can only afford to burn 30% of existing fossil fuel reserves to have a 50% chance of remaining below 2oC temperature increase(and 2oC is too high) Sources: Meinhausen et al, Greenhouse-gas emission targets, Nature, April 2009, Updated from IEA World Energy Outlook November 2012

and what value should we place on fossil-fuel companies? Climate & Energy20% is more realistic

Ian Dunlop 2013 Carbon Accounting21

Source: Climate Commission, Australia. 2013On current trends, the World has 15 years in which to completely decarbonise.

Australia, as one of the highest per capita carbon emitters, has 3-5 years to decarbonise.

And 2oC is too high! Climate & Energy Ian Dunlop 2013 Official solutions are not working Carbon Capture & Storage: - may make a significant contribution to addressing climate change, but not in the time, or to the extent, required.

Other clean coal technologies: - do not achieve the emission reduction required.

Rush from coal to gas:- worsens warming New high-carbon infrastructure: - locks in emissions for next 50 years and eliminates potential solutions.

Major changes to our energy system: - take decades to implement if we rely on conventional reform processes.

Geo-engineering is now being talked about seriously- but reflects a refusal to face up to reality 22Climate & Energy Ian Dunlop 2013 Climate Change: the case for emergency action Dutchlink AGM, Sydney 28th November 2011 Ian T DunlopLeadership FailureLack of honesty in facing the challenges:Climate Carbon pricing is a start, but overall policies are woefully inadequateglaring inconsistencies:rapidly increasing coal & gas investment while supposedly reducing emissionscontinuing fossil-fuel subsidies but lukewarm, variable, support for alternativesreal risks of coal seam & shale gas, & shale oil, not being consideredwater & food security implications ignoredEnergy assumption is that our high-carbon future can continue ad infinitum.security risks ignoredobjective is to maximise exports without considering domestic needs

BusinessContinued ambivalence on both climate and energy security risk.Focus is on maintaining the status quo, rather than the opportunities of change.

NGOsfailure to articulate real challenges and demand appropriate action.

Lack of systems-based thinkingNo-one is joining the dots

23Policy response Ian Dunlop 2013

Resilience declining GrowthSystemicBreakdownRe-organisationRe-birthOver-extendedHigh-Carbon GrowthCatastrophicBreakdown of Carbon BubbleCollapseSource: Resilience Alliance, Thomas Homer-Dixon24Resilience the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organise so as to retain essentially the same function, structure & feedbacks to have the same identityHow Resilient is AustraliaAustralia 21, February 2008Policy ImplicationsIt is difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on him not understanding itUpton Sinclair

Ian Dunlop 2013 Climate Change & Energy Security - the case for emergency actionDecember 2010Ian T DunlopWe have solutions, but inaction to date has cut off our options to make the transition to low carbon economies in good order.

Avoiding a 4OC world requires global emissions to peak in 3-4 years, then decline rapidly at around 9% pa.an unprecedented challenge.Existing political, corporate & market economy processes will not deliver either: the required level of technological, social and economic innovation and implementation.in time, or in substance.A circuit-breaker is required to move:from incrementalism to rapid transformation.

25SolutionsThe Reality Ian Dunlop 2013 25An Emergency Response is Essential26Today, in 2013, we face an unavoidably radical future. We either continue with rising emissions, and reap the radical repercussions of severe climate change, or we acknowledge we have a choice and pursue radical emission reductions. No longer is there a non-radical option. Moreover, low-carbon supply technologies cannot deliver the necessary rate of emission reductions they need to be complemented with rapid, deep and early reductions in energy consumption.

Kevin Anderson, Deputy DirectorTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UKJuly 2013 Solutions Ian Dunlop 2013 FrameworkSet out real risks, opportunities & time frame of responseHonest definition of the problem is 90% of the solutionChange context of debate:from incremental change to emergency responseBuild coalition of champions, committed and prepared to speak out:CommunityActivist groups & progressive NGOsProgressive corporates, insurance & institutional investorsMilitaryGovernment wherever prepared to participate, particularly local.International institutions: IEA/OECD/UN/IMF/WBExpand climate & resource scarcity emergency movementgo around conventional politicsMandate critical policy outcomes (eg realistic emissions targets) not solutions a priori, nor constrained by political realism.Emphasis on National Security & Competitiveness of AlternativesRemove subsidies for fossil-fuel industries.Halt all high carbon investment for export and domestic use.In the interests of the Common Good, set existential issues such as climate change & resource scarcity, outside conventional politicsHandled by system of global governance, but not global government 27Solutions Ian Dunlop 2013 Implications for PopulationAustralias carrying capacity is likely to be severely reduced by natural events, even with emergency action on climate change.

Euphoric plans for population growth must be tempered by a realistic assessment of the Climate/Energy/Water/Food nexus.

There is a total disconnect between current policy development and Australias real carrying capacity

No one is joining the dots! 28Solutions Ian Dunlop 2013 We must have business leadershipMajor corporations are well aware of the scienceBusiness claims to be the expert in risk managementBusiness will have to make it happen

29But so far business has abrogated responsibilityand, in many cases, is being deliberately obstructiveThe Directors role is to: to act honestly, in good faith and to the best of their ability in the interestsof the company in perpetuity ensure risks are identified and suitable systems put in place to managethose risks

Climate Change & Resource Scarcity are the biggest risks of allSolutions Ian Dunlop 2013 itdunlop@ozemail.com.auThank youIn Conclusion 30You already know enough. So do I. It is not the knowledge we lack. What is missing is the courage to understand what we know and draw conclusions.Sven Lindquist

www.iandunlop.netwww.clubofrome.orgwww.safeclimateaustralia.orgthefrogthatjumpedout.blogspot.com

Put simply: business & politics in a 4oC world is not possible

The solutions are available, but time is short.

We need informal groups of progressive leaders to initiate a new conversation, building coalitions to trigger emergency action. Ian Dunlop 2013 30Dutchlink AGM, Sydney 28th November 2011 itdunlop@ozemail.com.auClimate Change: the case for emergency action Chart40.050.10.250.51234566.599.59.751010.2510.5

TodayWorld Population billionYearPopulation - billion

Sheet1YearWorld Populationbillion-20000.05-10000.1000.2515000.5018001.0019302.0019603.0019744.0019875.0019996.0020066.5020509.0021009.5021509.75220010.00250010.25300010.5

Sheet100000000000000000

TodayWorld Population billionYearPopulation - billion

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When Sea Levels Attack!

TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS

Antarctic ice sheet (South Pole) 61m

Greenland ice sheet 7m

West Arctic ice sheet 6m

Heating ocean expanding1m per century

Already happened 20-40cm

8000 80m

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years sea level

HOLLYWOODHOLLYWOOD

Los Angeles

Venice

St Petersburg

Shanghai Edinburgh

New Orleans

Hamburg

New York London Taipei

South London

LowerManhattan

San Francisco

Amsterdam100

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1m

2m

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5m

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8000 years

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80 years

Chart140060018002800

CO2 Emissions GtCOEmissions from Proven ReservesGt Co2Carbon Emissions from fossil fuel use

Sheet1CO2 Emissions GtCOGas400Oil600Coal1800Total2800To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.