Best practices to promoteelectric-drive vehicles

Nic Lutsey

Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technical Advisory Committee MeetingLivermore, California April 6, 2016

Global electric vehicle sales since 2009

!! Sales of electric vehicles through 2015 !! There were approximately 530,000 electric vehicle sales in 2015 !! The 1 millionth electric vehicle was sold in September 2015 !! Sales mostly in China, Europe, the U.S. (and concentrated in particular markets)

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US city electric vehicle project overview

!! Approach/scope !! Include top 25 most populous US metropolitan areas !! Catalogue EV actions on many different dimensions (local, state, electric

charging infrastructure, utility support) !! Evaluate consumer benefits from EV policies !! Analyze EV sales of various types (BEV, PHEV) !! Assess statistical connection between local action and EV sales

!! Report, based on 2014 EV uptake and city/state policies !! http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities

!! We continue to update the results

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http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities

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Electric vehicle (EV) activity across major US cities

!! The top-25 metropolitan areas in 2014 in the US represent…. !! 42% of the population, 46% of auto sales, 67% of EV sales !! 53% of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure !! Diverse mix of incentive, market factors, and percent EV uptake

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BEV PHEV

http://theicct.org/info-tools/us-city-electric-vehicle-profilesEV shares are new PHEVs and BEVs, as percent of light-duty vehicle registrations, in 2014 from IHS Automotive

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Actions to promote EVs across US cities are diverse

Utility! Preferential charging rateHome charger supportWebsite, inform. materials

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20 !

15 !

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5 !

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Cost comparison tool

Other utility outreach

Infrastructure! EV supply equipment financingCity-owned EV chargersUS DOE EV Project areaStreamlined EVSE permit processPEV-ready building code Workplace charging

City! Vehicle purchase support Parking supportFleet purchasingCarpool lane (HOV) accessCar sharing program linkElectric vehicle strategyWebsite or inform. materials Outreach or education eventsEl

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State! ZEV programBEV purchase subsidyPHEV purchase subsidyFee exemption or exemptionHome charger supportPublic charging supportParking benefitFleet purchasing incentiveManufacturing incentivesLow carbon fuel policy

http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities

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http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities

Charging infrastructure varies greatly

!! Leading three cities have over 7-10 times the bottom-five cities’ charging networkChargers per capita !

(per million population)! 0! 100! 200!

Portland! San Francisco!

Seattle! San Diego! Baltimore!

Phoenix! Los Angeles!

Boston! Denver! Atlanta!

Washington! San Antonio!

Charlotte! Dallas!

Minneapolis! Chicago!

Tampa! Riverside!

Detroit! Houston!

Philadelphia! Pittsburgh!

St. Louis! Miami!

New York!

DC fast!

Level 2!

6 http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities “Cities” refer to core-based statistical area Data source (late 2014): US DOE AFDC: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/locator/stations/

DC Fast Level 2

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Example: San Francisco metro area EV activity

!! The San Francisco area has had a steady mix of consumer incentives, utility actions,and charging infrastructure support – and has 7x the US average EV uptake

New electric ! Chargers per capita ! Electric vehicle ! vehicle share! (per million population)! promotion actions!

0%! 2%! 4%! 6%! 0! 100! 200! 300! 0! 10! 20!

San Francisco! Atlanta!

Los Angeles! San Diego!

Seattle! Portland!

Riverside! Detroit!

Phoenix! Washington!

Denver! Tampa! Miami!

Boston! New York! Baltimore!

Dallas! Chicago!

Philadelphia! St. Louis!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Battery electricvehicles!

Plug-in hybridelectric vehicles!

DC fast! Level 2!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

State! City! Infrastructure! Utility!

San Francisco: •! Highest new electric-

vehicle sales share •! 2nd most extensive

public electric charginginfrastructure

•! 23 of the 30 electric-vehicle promotion actions

http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities

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http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities

Findings: Various EV actions are accelerating uptake

!! EV promotion actions are accelerating EV adoption !! Strong and modest correlations from the U.S. state/city study: Consumer

incentives, charging infrastructure, model availability, city non-monetary benefits !! Our emerging Europe work indicates the same: Financial incentives,

complementary local policy/incentives, charging infrastructure, etc.

!! Analysis confirms importance of “ecosystem approach” !! Public charging and consumer incentives work, but more diverse action needed !! Engagement from cities, states, utilities, automakers, consumers, local

businesses in each city is important

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Global electric vehicle sales in 2015

!! Most (i.e., 93%) of 2015 electric vehicle sales were in China, Europe, U.S. !! 14 automaker groups at over 10,000 annual global sales !! Deployment by automaker and by region:

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EV uptake higher where incentives higher (generally)

!! Preliminary findings on analysis of electric vehicle incentives !! Ongoing analysis of electric vehicle sales (circle size) and shares in 2014 (vertical axis) versus

the relative cost of electric vehicle as compared to comparable conventional gasoline vehiclesafter incentives (rebates, credits, tax exemptions) (horizontal axis)

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Annual electric vehicle sales

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-50% 0% 50% Electric vehicle cost compared to conventional vehicles

(including retail price, incentives, taxes, fees) 10

Vehicle purchase subsidy (tax credit, rebate,

Electric vehicle sales tend to be highest where combinationof national and regional support policies are in place

Area Action

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Percent of 2014 global electric vehicle sales 19% 5% 4% 11% 5% 6% 5% 19% 19%

Vehicle Research and development support X X X X X X X X X manufacturer Long-term efficiency standards X X X X X X X X X

Incentive provisions within efficiency regulations X X X X X X X Cumulative sales goal X X X X X X X X

Consumer purchasing purchase tax exemption, feebate) X X X X X X X X

Government fleet vehicle purchasing preferences X X X X X X Consumer Annual vehicle fee exemption X X X X / / use Discounted/free electric charging X X X / X

Preferential lane (e.g., bus, carpool lane) access, parking, reduced road tolls/taxes / / / X X X X / X

Fuel provider, infrastructure

Carbon pricing scheme X X X X X X X / X Public charging network funding, incentives X X X X X X X X X

Consumer awareness

Public outreach activities to educate on consumer benefits X X X X X X X X X

http://www.theicct.org/zev-alliance-collaborative-agenda“X” denotes national program; “/” signifies smaller local or regional program

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http://www.theicct.org/zev-alliance-collaborative-agenda

Collaboration: International ZEV Alliance

!! Collaborate on best-practice policies, action plans !! Set electric-drive vehicle target: All electric by 2050

!! To achieve climate stabilization goals !! To set clear signal for policy and investment

-! British Columbia -! California

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Plug-in hybrid electric

Battery electric

Hydrogen fuel cell

-! Connecticut -! Germany -! Maryland -! Massachusetts -! Netherlands -! New York -! Norway -! Oregon -! Québec -! Rhode Island -! United Kingdom -! Vermont

International ZEV Alliance: http://zevalliance.org http://zevalliance.org/content/cop21-2050-announcement

http://zevalliance.org/content/global-ev-2050-ghg-mitigation-potential COP21 announcement: Mitigation potential:

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http://zevalliance.org/content/global-ev-2050-ghg-mitigation-potentialhttp://zevalliance.org/content/cop21-2050-announcementhttp:http://zevalliance.org

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Discussion: Obstacles for electric drive vehicles

!! Survey: “The following are significant obstacles to the uptake of [electric-drive vehicles]”

Strongly agree

Battery electricAgree vehicle

Plug-in hybridvehicleNeither agree nor disagree

Fuel cell vehicle

Disagree

Strongly disagree

96 surveys from high-level experts (generally with 10+ years experience in vehicle, electricity, hydrogen technology and policy; including automaker, government, research organizations) in Germany and U.S.

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!! ICCT resources !! US city/state electric vehicle incentive analysis

!! http://theicct.org/info-tools/us-city-electric-vehicle-profile (Dec 2015) !! http://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activities (July 2015) !! http://theicct.org/supporting-electric-vehicles-US-city-total-cost (October 2015) !! http://theicct.org/evaluation-state-level-us-electric-vehicle-incentives (Oct 2014)

!! International electric vehicle sales and incentives !! http://theicct.org/global-ev-2050-ghg-mitigation-potential (Dec 2015) !! http://theicct.org/transition-global-zero-emission-vehicle-fleet-collaborative-agenda-governments (Sept 2015) !! http://theicct.org/driving-electrification-global-comparison-fiscal-policy-electric-vehicles (May 2014)

!! International Zero Emission Vehicle Alliance !! http://zevalliance.org !! http://zevalliance.org/content/cop21-2050-announcement

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http://zevalliance.org/content/cop21-2050-announcementhttp:http://zevalliance.orghttp://theicct.org/driving-electrification-global-comparison-fiscal-policy-electric-vehicleshttp://theicct.org/transition-global-zero-emission-vehicle-fleet-collaborative-agenda-governmentshttp://theicct.org/global-ev-2050-ghg-mitigation-potentialhttp://theicct.org/evaluation-state-level-us-electric-vehicle-incentiveshttp://theicct.org/supporting-electric-vehicles-US-city-total-costhttp://theicct.org/leading-us-city-electric-vehicle-activitieshttp://theicct.org/info-tools/us-city-electric-vehicle-profile

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