The Modern Life of a Model

Bert Jagers

15 July 2015

Outline

Brief history Current status and ongoing developments

Operational forecasting Integrated modelling Interactive exploration

15 July 2015

The old days

The old days

Running models: models wrote letters

> edit input> mymodel1 < input> edit fort.7> conversion.bat> mymodel2

Running models

With desktop environments came graphical user interfaces ...

Files remainedthe same, butinput generationbecame easier

Running a sequenceof models becamesometimes moredifficult due tothe GUIs...

15 July 2015

These days

Operational Forecasting

Primary focus is reliability and stability!

No fancy model interactions if not absolutely needed.Auditable: what happened

when and why?--> Usually file based

However, hardwiring makes thesystem hard to adjust, soincreasing use of exchangestandards.

15 July 2015

Example: Delft-FEWS

http://oss.deltares.nl/web/delft-fews/

Delft-FEWS

General Adapter

Model

standardizedinput data

standardizedoutput data

Model Adapter

Modelmodelinput data

modeloutput data

The system preparesinput in a genericmanner and expectsoutput in standardizedformat.

It doesnt start the modelbut just a modelwrapper.

The wrapper triggers theactual computationand the necessaryconversion steps.

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Example: DRIHM

http://www.drihm.eu

A cyberinfrastructure that allows researchers to experiment with forecasting chains across a heterogeneous architecture consisting of HPC, grid, cloud computing resources

MAP process toadd new models. Metadata Adaptors Portability

None of this is trivial, e.g. rapidly changing hardware architectures.

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Sequential execution

Data

Results

Storage

Action

Action

Action

Action

However, all actions are still sequential: Great for auditing and stability. But not so great for performance.

However the part of the process (workflow) that cant be parallellized determines in the end the scalability

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Tight coupling: models become more social

Why wait until one model has finished before starting the next model?

Numerous technologiesexist for exchanging dataat runtime all come with similarrequirements: make a(shared) library with initialize,run, finalize, get & set function

The challenge is stability in case of tight interaction

Can we find a solution?

OASIS

OMSHLA

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More than just water

CONTROL

WAQ/ECO

WAVES

MORPHO

FLOW

RAINFALLRUNOFF

WINDTRANSPORT

GROUNDWATER

Many more processes that are interacting (at different geospatial scales)

assimilatingobservational

data

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also data volumes and data types

Open geospatial data (e.g. Open Street Map) Satellite data (e.g. via Google Earth Engine) Lidar and 3D scans GEOSS data services New live data feeds (e.g. Twitter)

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and model scale and detail

http://oss.delft3d.nl

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Interactive modelling environments

Dont start, sit and wait but start, pause, reset, and interact with your model. Coupling your model not just to other models but also to dynamic user input for: Education / training (serious gaming) Iterative design Emergency planning

15 July 2015

However, you may not have appropriate computing resources available locally.Can we do this web-based?--> Model Message Interfacehttps://www.nuget.org/packages/ModelMessageInterface/

MMI is based on BMI, JSON messages, and MQ protocol

MM

I wra

pper

From synchronous to asynchronous

ModelBMI interface

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Visualizer

Visualizer

VisualizerController

VisualizerController

Asynchronous remote control

VisualizerController

MM

I wra

pper

ModelBMI interface

Your model starts to twitter and to post facebook updates

Dependent component

Dependent component

Reusable for operational forecasting?

WorkflowManager

MM

I wra

pper Data providing

component

ModelBMI interface

Any dependent component may fail without influencing the rest of the data flow.

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The future

Who knows?

Using web-based modelling and Gogo Inflight, its just a small step to put your model in airplane mode

15 July 2015

The Modern Life of a ModelOutlineThe old days The old days Running models: models wrote lettersRunning modelsThese days Operational ForecastingExample: Delft-FEWSExample: DRIHMSequential executionTight coupling: models become more socialMore than just water also data volumes and data types and model scale and detailInteractive modelling environmentsFrom synchronous to asynchronousAsynchronous remote controlReusable for operational forecasting?The future Who knows?