Berlin Area School District Student Population Studymedia.virbcdn.com/files/f0/cbe454998821643c-FinalBASD.pdf · 2016-09-20 · Berlin Area School District Ten-Year Student Population

BerlinAreaSchoolDistrict

StudentPopulationStudy

January2016

Preparedby:CommunityPlanning&Consulting,LLC

GreenBay,Wisconsinwww.communityplanningandconsulting.com


Ten-YearStudentPopulationStudy

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TABLEofCONTENTSI. Introduction........................................................................................................1StudentPopulationStudy.....................................................................................................................................2II. Methodology........................................................................................................2MethodA–Population-basedProjections.....................................................................................................2MethodB–CohortSurvivalProjections.........................................................................................................2MethodC–BlendedAlternative.........................................................................................................................3III. CurrentEnrollmentinBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict................................3ClayLambertonElementarySchool.................................................................................................................3BerlinMiddleSchool...............................................................................................................................................3BerlinHighSchool....................................................................................................................................................4IV. EnrollmentTrends,1996-2015....................................................................4ClayLambertonElementarySchool.................................................................................................................4BerlinMiddleSchool...............................................................................................................................................4BerlinHighSchool....................................................................................................................................................5BerlinAreaSchoolDistrict...................................................................................................................................5V. MethodA:Population-BasedModel............................................................7GeneralPopulation...................................................................................................................................................7CohortPopulation....................................................................................................................................................8ProjectedAnnualEnrollmentbySchoolUtilizingMethodA,2016-2025........................................9VI. MethodB:CohortSurvivalModel..............................................................10EnrollmentHistory,1996-2015......................................................................................................................10SurvivalRates,1996-2015.................................................................................................................................12ProjectedAnnualEnrollmentbySchoolUtilizingMethodB,2016-2025.....................................14VII. MethodC:BlendedModel............................................................................15



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VIII. WisconsinOpenEnrollmentProgram.....................................................16LeadingFactorsAffectingOpenEnrollment..............................................................................................16OpenEnrollmentintheBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict...............................................................................16IX. CapacityofCurrentFacilities......................................................................18X. Summary............................................................................................................20ListofChartsFigure1:CLESEnrollment,1996-2015..........................................................................................................4Figure2:BMSEnrollment,1996-2015............................................................................................................5Figure3:BHSEnrollment,1996-2015............................................................................................................5Figure4:BASDEnrollment,1996-2015.........................................................................................................6Figure5:BASDOpenEnrollment'In'and'Out',1998to2015..........................................................18Figure6:CLESProjectedEnrollmentvs.FacilityCapacity,2015-2025.........................................18Figure7:BMSProjectedEnrollmentvs.FacilityCapacity,2015-2025..........................................19Figure8:BHSProjectedEnrollmentvs.FacilityCapacity,2015-2025..........................................19Figure9:BASDTotalProjectedEnrollmentvs.FacilityCapacity,2015-2025............................19ListofTablesTable1:EnrollmentbyGradeinBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict,1996-2015.......................................6Table2:ActualandProjectedPopulationofMunicipalitiesWithinBerlinAreaSchool

District,2000-2025..........................................................................................................................................7Table3:PopulationbyCensusAgeGroupinBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict,2000and

2013........................................................................................................................................................................8Table4:PopulationbyCensusAgeGroupasPercentageofTotalPopulationinBerlin

AreaSchoolDistrict,2000and2013........................................................................................................8Table5:ProjectedPopulationbyCensusAgeGroupinBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict,

2020and2025....................................................................................................................................................9Table6:ComparisonofPopulationbyCensusAgeGroupwithActualEnrollmentin

BASDSchools,2000and2013.....................................................................................................................9Table7:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentbySchoolunderMethodA,2016-2025........................10Table8:EnrollmentHistorybyGradeforClayLamberton&PoySippiElementary

Schools,1996-2015.......................................................................................................................................10Table9:EnrollmentHistorybyGradeforBerlinMiddleSchool,1996-2015.............................11Table10:EnrollmentHistorybyGradeforBerlinHighSchool,1996-2015...............................11



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Table11:SurvivalRatesbyGradeforCombinedClayLamberton&PoySippiElementarySchools,1996-2015..............................................................................................................12

Table12:SurvivalRatesbyGradeforBerlinMiddleSchool,1996-2015.....................................13Table13:SurvivalRatesbyGradeforBerlinHighSchool,1996-2015..........................................13Table14:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentbyGradeforClayLambertonElementary

SchoolunderMethodB,2016-2025......................................................................................................14Table15:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentbyGradeforBerlinMiddleSchoolunder

MethodB,2016-2025...................................................................................................................................15Table16:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentbyGradeforBerlinHighSchoolunder

MethodB,2016-2025...................................................................................................................................15Table17:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentforClayLambertonElementarySchoolunder

MethodC,2016-2025...................................................................................................................................16Table18:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentforBerlinMiddleSchoolunderMethodC,

2016-2025.........................................................................................................................................................16Table19:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentforBerlinHighSchoolunderMethodC,2016-

2025.....................................................................................................................................................................16Table20:AnnualProjectedEnrollmentforClayLambertonElementarySchool,Berlin

MiddleSchool,BerlinHighSchool,andBerlinAreaSchoolDistrictunderMethodC,2016-2025.........................................................................................................................................................20



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I. IntroductionTheBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict(BASD)islocatedinBerlin,Wisconsin.ThemunicipalitiespartiallyorwhollylocatedwithinitsboundariesincludetheCityofBerlinandTownsofBerlin,Brooklyn,andSenecainGreenLakeCounty;TownsofAurora,PoySippi,andWarreninWausharaCounty;and,TownsofNepeuskunandRushfordinWinnebagoCounty.AsofSeptember2015,BASDhadatotalenrollmentof1,588students,makingitthe126thlargestofWisconsin’s449schooldistricts.TheDistrictprovidesPre-Kthrough12thgradeeducationtostudentsatClayLambertonElementarySchool,BerlinMiddleSchool,andBerlinHighSchool.



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BackgroundStudentpopulationstudiesofferschooldistrictsthemeansofforecastingprojectedannualenrollment.Suchprojectionsprovidecrucialinformationregardingstaffing,budgeting,andclassroomallocationsandarereliedupontoanticipatefutureneeds.Awidearrayoffactorsmayaffectfutureenrollment.Theseincludedemographicchangesinthelocalpopulation;economicrecessions;thelossoflocalandregionalindustries;thecostandavailabilityofsingle-familyhousing;theacademicreputationoftheschooldistrict;andtheoveralldesirabilityofsurroundingcommunitiesasplacestoliveandraiseafamily,amongothers.Otherfactorsaffectingenrollment,particularlyunderWisconsin’sOpenEnrollmentProgram,mayincludetherealorperceivedqualityofaDistrict’scurriculum,teachingstaff,facilities,andextracurricularprograms.Short-termprojections,thosefromonetofiveyearsinduration,arebestsuitedtoidentifyingbudgetingandstaffingneeds.Studiesextendingbeyondfiveyearsprovideopportunitiestoidentifylong-termfacilityneeds.BASDhascommissionedthepreparationofaTen-YearPopulationStudy,comprisedofannualenrollmentprojectionsforeachofthethreeschoolswithintheDistrict.Twentyyearsofpastenrollmentdataformedthebasisforcalculatingtheprojectionspresentedlaterinthisreport.II. MethodologyTheprojectionsmodelsusedtocompletethisstudyblendcohortsurvivalrateswithcommunitypopulationprojectionstoforecasttotalenrollmentinannualand5-yearincrements.MethodA–Population-basedProjectionsMethodAusespastenrollmentfiguresasapercentageofthegeneralpopulationtoprojectfutureenrollment.Theadvantageofapopulation-basedmodelisthatmoderatechangesinthepercentageofadistrict’sresidentswhoareofschoolagewillnotresultinsignificantinaccuraciesinenrollmentprojections.Barringdramaticdemographicshifts,itisreasonabletoexpectthemeandatatoprovideanaccuratepredictoroffutureenrollment,particularlywithrespecttolong-termprojections(i.e.,thoseattenyearsintothefutureandbeyond).ThelimitingfactorforMethodAisthatfutureenrollmentiscalculatedbaseduponpopulationprojectionsdevelopedbytheWisconsinDepartmentofAdministration-DemographicServicesCenter(WDOA-DSC).ThealgorithmsusedbyWDOA-DSCtoprojectfuturepopulationarebaseduponhistoricpopulation.Assuch,theymaynotaccuratelyaccountforrecentdemographicshifts.MethodAallowsforby-schoolprojectionsinfive-yearincrements;thoughannualprojectionsmaybeextrapolatedbaseduponfive-yearaverages.MethodB–CohortSurvivalProjectionsMethodButilizescohortsurvivalmethodology,themostwidelyusedmodelforprojectingfutureenrollment.Alsoknownasthegradeprogressiontechnique,themethodcomputestheestimatedsizeofeachclassbygradeforthecomingschoolyearbaseduponcurrentenrollmentintheprecedinggrade.Inotherwords,thehistoricenrollmentpatternfromfirsttosecondgradeis



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appliedtotheactualenrollmentinfirstgradeinagivenyeartopredictthesizeofthefollowingyear’ssecondgradeclass.Thismodelreliesonthepresumptionthatpasttrendsinsurvivalrateswillcontinueintothefuture,albeitwithminoradjustments.MethodBisbaseduponhistoricsurvivalrates.Assuch,theaccuracyofenrollmentprojectionsdevelopedunderthismethodologyisquitehighinthenear-term(1-to5-years),giventhepredictablelikelihoodthatthebulkofstudentsinaparticulargradewillcontinueontothenext,withintheDistrict.MethodBallowsforannual,by-gradeprojections.MethodC–BlendedAlternativeMethodCcombinesthepreviousmethodologiestoprovideablendedenrollmentalternative.Theseprojectionsaredevelopedbyaveragingthedifferencebetweenthetwopreviousalternativestoprovideamorebalancedestimateofprojectedenrollment.MethodCallowsforannualprojections,developedbycalculatingthefive-andten-yeardifferencebetweenMethodsAandBandapplyingthatratiotointerveningyears.LikeMethodA,MethodCislimitedtoby-school(notby-grade)projections.III. CurrentEnrollmentinBerlinAreaSchoolDistrictEnrollmentinWisconsinschooldistrictsistabulatedbaseduponaheadcountofallstudentsreceivingprimaryeducationalservicesasoftheThirdFridayinSeptember.Asofthe2015ThirdFridaycount,BASDhadadistrict-wideenrollmentof1,588students.ClayLambertonElementarySchoolClayLambertonElementarySchool(CLES)islocatedat259EastMarquetteStreetinBerlin.Theschoolserves676studentsingradesK4through5.EnrollmentbygradewithinCLESasofthe2015ThirdFridaycountwas:

! K4 89! Pre-kindergarten 3! Kindergarten 90! Firstgrade 94

! Secondgrade 100! Thirdgrade 91! Fourthgrade 117! Fifthgrade 92

BerlinMiddleSchoolBerlinMiddleSchool(BMS)islocatedat242MemorialDriveinBerlin.Theschoolserves347studentsin6ththrough8thgrade.EnrollmentbygradewithinBMSasofthe2015ThirdFridaycountwas:

! 6thgrade 106! 7thgrade 120

! 8thgrade 121



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BerlinHighSchoolBerlinHighSchool(BHS)islocatedat222MemorialDriveinBerlin.Theschoolserves565studentsin9ththrough12thgrade.EnrollmentbygradewithinBHSasofthe2015ThirdFridaycountwas:



IV. EnrollmentTrends,1996-2015ThechartsthatappearbelowandonthefollowingpageprovideacomparisonofThirdFridayCountenrollmentforBASDschoolsfortheyears1996through2015.PoySippiElementarySchoolclosedfollowingthe2010-11schoolyear.ItisassumedthattheincreasedenrollmentwithinCLESbeginningin2010and2011resultedfromPoySippi’sclosure.ClayLambertonElementarySchoolSincethe1996-97schoolyear,CLEShasaveragedatotalenrollmentof670students.Thelowof586occurredduringthe2005-06schoolyear.Enrollmentpeakedat786in2011,followingtheclosingofPoySippiElementarySchool.PoySippiaveraged79studentsfrom1996to2010,culminatingin91duringitsfinalyear.

BerlinMiddleSchoolBerlinMiddleSchoolhasaveraged383studentsduringthepasttwodecades.Fromahighof437in1996,enrollmenthasstabilizedaround350intheyearsfollowingthe2007-10nationalrecession.

711 728 696 618 662 670 639 630 586 588 621 590 610 620 703 786 781 753 723 676

0 200 400 600 800

1000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Actu

al En

rollm

ent

School Year Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction

Figure 1: CLES Enrollment, 1996-2015



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BerlinHighSchoolBerlinHighSchool’saverageenrollmentfortheyears1996through2015was607students.Thehighschoolreachedahighof692in1998.Itslowestenrollmentduringthepasttwentyyearswas536in2012.

BerlinAreaSchoolDistrictAverageenrollmentwithinBASDduringthepasttwentyyearswas1,721students.Theyearofhighestenrollmentoccurredduringthe1997-98schoolyear.Thelowenrollmentof1,588wasreachedduringthecurrentschoolyear.Figure4onthefollowingpagepresentsannualtotalenrollmentwithinBASDfortheyears1996through2015.

437 423 416 401 398 421 381 420

375 409 381 367 340 352 350 348 370 373 365 347

0

100

200

300

400

500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actu

al En

rollm

ent

Year Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction

Figure 2: BMS Enrollment, 1996-2015

664 668 692 670 652 628 624 586 590 599 616 640 610 604 554 555 536 543 543 565

0

200

400

600

800

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actu

al En

rollm

ent


Figure 3: BHS Enrollment, 1996-2015



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Table1presentsaverageenrollmentbygradefrom1996throughthe2015-16schoolyear.EnrollmentfiguresforPoySippiElementarySchoolfortheyears1996through2010areincludedwithinthedataset.Theyear(s)ofhighestattendancewithineachgradearehighlightedinyellow.K4classeswerenotavailableatCLESpriortothe2010-11schoolyear.Asthetableshows,peakenrollmentbygradetendedtooccurduringtheyears1996-1998.Table 1: Enrollment by Grade in Berlin Area School District, 1996-2015 Year PreK K4 K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 1996 32 -- 124 128 111 132 131 124 134 154 149 161 156 176 171 1997 29 -- 129 117 125 124 141 137 134 139 150 187 161 152 168 1998 31 -- 100 135 109 130 119 145 136 142 138 184 187 162 159 1999 8 -- 109 107 131 104 124 111 137 129 135 158 180 171 161 2000 28 -- 100 122 119 131 109 131 119 144 135 155 164 169 164 2001 37 -- 98 110 124 112 140 124 148 121 154 148 160 162 164 2002 40 -- 98 93 103 125 117 141 115 148 119 171 150 155 156 2003 41 -- 115 112 100 108 132 123 152 117 151 138 159 152 142 2004 5 -- 103 122 97 103 111 133 116 142 117 161 134 153 142 2005 9 -- 95 105 123 109 105 120 137 123 151 143 162 135 159 2006 9 -- 128 99 118 119 109 108 113 139 129 175 142 164 135 2007 4 -- 106 126 99 111 115 107 112 119 136 149 176 138 177 2008 6 -- 117 108 119 101 113 115 113 112 115 156 148 173 133 2009 8 -- 114 125 118 116 107 116 121 118 113 135 153 147 169 2010 10 97 96 123 121 115 124 108 121 115 114 129 137 145 143 2011 46 107 102 96 117 118 111 131 112 120 116 142 132 134 147 2012 3 112 96 117 96 118 125 114 131 121 118 130 138 132 136 2013 6 103 104 93 115 97 110 125 115 136 122 144 133 133 133 2014 5 95 97 105 102 114 100 105 123 112 130 129 145 136 133 2015 3 89 90 94 100 91 117 92 106 120 121 150 132 151 132 Avg. 18 101 106 112 112 114 118 121 125 129 131 152 153 152 151 Note: Year(s) of highest attendance by grade highlighted in yellow. Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction.

1883 1893 1877

1765 1790 1802 1730 1742

1639 1676 1687 1675 1629 1660 1698 1689 1687 1669 1631

1588 1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actu

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Figure 4: BASD Enrollment, 1996-2015



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V. MethodA:Population-BasedModelProjectionsgeneratedunderMethodAarebaseduponacorrelationbetweenstudentenrollmentandthenumberofschool-agechildrenwithinthegeneralpopulation.Pastcensusdataiscomparedwithhistoricenrollmentinordertoidentifytrends.EnrollmentdataprovidedbyBASDwasanalyzedinfive-yearincrementsandcomparedwiththe1995populationofschool-agechildrenlivingwithinthedistrict.ThetrendsthatarosewerethenappliedtopopulationprojectionsdevelopedbyWDOA-DSCtoprojectfutureenrollmentwithinClayLambertonElementarySchool,BerlinMiddleSchool,andBerlinHighSchool.DecennialCensusvs.AmericanCommunitySurveyDemographicdatapresentedunderthe‘2000’and‘2010’columnheadingsthatappearinthefollowingtablesisdrawnfromthedecennialUSCensus.The2000Censuswasthelasttoutilizethelongsurveyformat.Beginningin2010,theCensusBureaudistributedanabbreviatedsurveythatresultedinthecollectionofmuchmorelimiteddemographicinformation.TheconventionalCensusisnowsupplementedwithdatagatheredthroughtheannualAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS).TheACSisanongoingstatisticalsurveybytheCensusBureau,senttoapproximately250,000householdsmonthly.Itcollectsinformationpreviouslycontainedinthelongformofthedecennialcensus.Thedataprovidedunderthe‘2013’columnheadingsresultfromthemostrecentACSsurveyformunicipalitiesinWisconsin.GeneralPopulationTable 2: Actual and Projected Population of Municipalities Within Berlin Area School District, 2000-2025

Municipality 1995 (estimate)

2000 (actual)

2005 (estimate)

2010 (actual)

2015 (estimate)

2020 (projected)

2025 (projected)

C. Berlin* 5,374 5,388 5,337 5,524 5,542 5,750 5,860 T. Aurora 875 971 1,057 985 998 1,070 1,135 T. Berlin 1,053 1,145 1,189 1,140 1,146 1,150 1,160 T. Brooklyn 1,894 1,996 1,957 1,826 1,853 1,840 1,855 T. Nepeuskun 659 689 715 710 733 775 805 T. Poy Sippi 953 972 971 931 921 945 970 T. Rushford 1,364 1,471 1,549 1,561 1,578 1,655 1,715 T. Seneca 406 424 426 408 411 400 400 T. Warren 579 675 708 668 667 695 725 Total 13,157 13,731 13,909 13,753 13,849 14,280 14,625 * A portion of the City of Berlin lies within Waushara County. The figure presented above reflects its combined population in Green Lake and Waushara Counties. Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration-Demographic Services Center. ThepopulationoftheninemunicipalitiesrepresentedwithinBASDhasremainedrelativelystableduringthepast20years.Their2015totalpopulationof13,849representsa5.3%increasefromthe1995figureof13,157.Theprojected2025populationof14,625isafurtherincreaseof5.6%over



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2015.BaseduponWDOA-DSCcalculations,projectedgrowthduringthenexttenyearswillexceedactualgrowthduringtheprevioustwenty.CohortPopulationTable3presentsthepopulationrepresentedbyschool-agechildrenforeachmunicipalitywithinBASD.ThepopulationdataispresentedinstandardCensusagegroups:Age5to14andAge15to19.Asofthe2013ACS,thereare1,883peoplebetweentheagesoffiveandfourteenand880peoplebetweentheagesoffifteenandnineteenlivingintheCityofBerlinandtheeightneighboringtownships.Table4dividesthenumberofpersonsineachagegroupbythetotalpopulationfortheyears2000and2013todeterminetheirrespectivepercentageofthetotalpopulation.Peopleagedfivetofourteenyearsrepresent13.92%ofthetotalpopulationwhilethoseagefifteentonineteenaccountfor6.51%ofthesame.Table5aggregatesanddividesbytwothe2000and2013percentagesforeachagegrouptodeterminetheirmean.Thataveragepercentageisthenappliedtotheprojectedtotalpopulationfortheninemunicipalitiestoestimatethenumberofpersonsineachagegroupfortheyears2020and2025.Table 3: Population by Census Age Group in Berlin Area School District, 2000 and 2013

Municipality 2000 2013 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19

C. Berlin 745 382 823 347 T. Aurora 153 73 131 74 T. Berlin 174 102 190 132 T. Brooklyn 240 122 137 51 T. Nepeuskun 99 55 109 15 T. Poy Sippi 142 66 126 51 T. Rushford 199 101 268 118 T. Seneca 58 33 41 31 T. Warren 93 46 58 61 Total 1,903 980 1,883 880 Source: 2000 US Census and 2013 American Community Survey. Table 4: Population by Census Age Group as Percentage of Total Population in Berlin Area School District, 2000 and 2013 2000 2013 Total Population 13,731 13,526 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Total by Age Group 1,903 980 1,883 880 Age Group as Percent of Total Population 13.86% 7.14% 13.92% 6.51% Source: 2000 US Census and 2013 American Community Survey.



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Table 5: Projected Population by Census Age Group in Berlin Area School District, 2020 and 2025 2020 2025 Projected Total Population 14,280 14,625 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age Group as Percentage of Total Population* 13.89% 6.83% 13.89% 6.83% Projected Population by Age Group 1,984 975 2,031 999 * Represents mean of 2000 and 2013 percentages presented in Table 4. Source: 2000 US Census and 2013 American Community Survey. Table6comparesthepopulationofthetwoagegroupswithactualenrollmentwithineachofthethreeschoolstodeterminethepercentageenrolledduringthe2000-01and2013-14schoolyears.In2000,55.7%ofresidentsbetweentheagesoffiveandfourteenlivingintheninemunicipalitieswereenrolledatClayLambertonorBerlinMiddleSchools.By2013,thatnumberhadincreasedto59.8%.AtBerlinHighSchool,thenumberswere66.53%and61.07%,respectively,forresidentsagedfifteentonineteen.Table 6: Comparison of Population by Census Age Group with Actual Enrollment in BASD Schools, 2000 and 2013

2000 2013 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 5 to 14 Age 15 to 19

Population by Age Group 1,903 980 1,883 880

Actual Enrollment Clay Lamberton Elementary School 662 753 Berlin Middle School 398 373 Berlin High School 652 543

Enrollment as Percentage of Age Group Clay Lamberton Elementary School 34.79% 39.99% Berlin Middle School 20.91% 19.81% Berlin High School 66.53% 61.70%

Total Percent by Age Group Enrolled 55.70% 66.53% 59.80% 61.07% Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction; 2000 US Census and 2013 American Community Survey. ProjectedAnnualEnrollmentbySchoolUtilizingMethodA,2016-2025Table7presentstheprojectedyears2020and2025enrollmentforBASD.The‘ProjectedPercentageofAgeGroupEnrolled’belowwascalculatedbyaveragingthe‘TotalPercentbyAgeGroupEnrolled’fortheyears2000and2013aspresentedinTable6.Thosepercentageswerethenmultipliedbytheprojectedpopulationofeachagegrouptoreachtheprojected2020and2025enrollmentfiguresforeachschoolandwithinBASDasawhole.Annualenrollmentwascalculatedthroughproportionaldivision.



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VI. MethodB:CohortSurvivalModelThecohortsurvivalmethodisthemostwidelyusedenrollmentprojectionsmodelintheUS.Survivalratesreflectthepercentageofstudents(cohorts)inagivengradewhoareexpectedtoreachthesuccessivegradeinthefollowingyear.Forexample,aonehundredpercentsurvivalrateforthirdgradewouldbeshownas100%,indicatingthatthetotalnumberofstudentsinthirdgradeduringagivenyearequaledthoseinsecondgradethepreviousyear.Asurvivalrateof95%wouldindicateafivepercentdecreaseinthenumberstudentsenrolledinthirdgradethanwereenrolledinsecondtheprioryear,whilearateof105%wouldindicateafivepercentincrease.Tables8through10presentthechangeinnumberandpercentageofenrolledstudentswithineachgradeandbyschool.Tables11,12,and13presentthesurvivalrates.EnrollmentHistory,1996-2015Table 8: Enrollment History by Grade for Clay Lamberton & Poy Sippi Elementary Schools, 1996-2015 Year Grade

K4 K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 6th # CiP # CiP # CiP # CiP # CiP # CiP # CiP

1996

124 128 111 132 131 124 1997 129 4.03 117 -8.59 125 12.61 124 -6.06 141 7.63 137 10.48 1998 100 -22.48 135 15.38 109 -12.80 130 4.84 119 -15.60 145 5.84 1999 109 9.00 107 -20.74 131 20.18 104 -20.00 124 4.20 111 -23.45 2000 100 -8.26 122 14.02 119 -9.16 131 25.96 109 -12.10 131 18.02 2001 98 -2.00 110 -9.84 124 4.20 112 -14.50 140 28.44 124 -5.34 2002 98 0.00 93 -15.45 103 -16.94 124 10.71 117 -16.43 141 13.71 2003 115 17.35 112 20.43 100 -2.91 108 -12.90 132 12.82 123 -12.77 2004 103 -10.43 122 8.93 97 -3.00 103 -4.63 111 -15.91 133 8.13 2005 95 -7.77 105 -13.93 123 26.80 109 5.83 105 -5.41 120 -9.77 2006 128 34.74 99 -5.71 118 -4.07 119 9.17 109 3.81 108 -10.00 2007 106 -17.19 126 27.27 99 -16.10 111 -6.72 115 5.50 107 -0.93 2008 117 10.38 108 -14.29 119 20.20 101 -9.01 113 -1.74 115 7.48 2009 114 -2.56 125 15.74 118 -0.84 116 14.85 107 -5.31 116 0.87 2010 97 96 -15.79 123 -1.60 121 2.54 115 -0.86 124 15.89 108 -6.90 2011 107 103.09 102 6.25 96 -21.95 117 -3.31 118 2.61 111 -10.48 131 21.30

Table 7: Annual Projected Enrollment by School under Method A, 2016-2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Clay Lamberton Elementary 676 689 702 716 729 742 745 749 752 756 759

Berlin Middle School 347 358 370 381 393 404 406 408 410 412 414

Berlin High School 565 577 589 601 613 625 628 631 635 638 641

Total BASD Enrollment 1,588 1,624 1,661 1,698 1,735 1,771 1,779 1,788 1,797 1,806 1,814



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2012 112 46.73 96 -5.88 117 21.88 96 -17.95 118 0.00 125 12.61 114 -12.98 2013 103 -8.04 104 8.33 93 -20.51 115 19.79 97 -17.80 110 -12.00 125 9.65 2014 95 -7.77 97 -6.73 105 12.90 102 -11.30 114 17.53 100 -9.09 105 -16.00 2015 89 -6.32 90 -7.22 94 -10.48 100 -1.96 91 -20.18 117 17.00 92 -12.38 Avg. 101 25.54 106 -0.85 112 -0.34 112 0.32 114 -1.11 118 0.20 121 -0.79 Note: ‘CiP’ refers to change in percent from previous year within same grade. Note: K4 was first offered at BASD during the 2010-11 school year. Due to the volatility of enrollment during the past twenty years, the enrollment history for Pre-K was not included in this table. Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction. Table 9: Enrollment History by Grade for Berlin Middle School, 1996-2015

Year Grade 6th 7th 8th

# CiP # CiP # CiP 1996 134 154 149 1997 134 0.00 139 -9.74 150 0.67 1998 136 1.49 142 2.16 138 -8.00 1999 137 0.74 129 -9.15 135 -2.17 2000 119 -13.14 144 11.63 135 0.00 2001 147 23.53 120 -16.67 154 14.07 2002 115 -21.77 147 22.50 119 -22.73 2003 152 32.17 117 -20.41 151 26.89 2004 116 -23.68 142 21.37 117 -22.52 2005 136 17.24 123 -13.38 150 28.21 2006 113 -16.91 139 13.01 129 -14.00 2007 112 -0.88 119 -14.39 136 5.43 2008 113 0.89 112 -5.88 115 -15.44 2009 121 7.08 118 5.36 113 -1.74 2010 121 0.00 115 -2.54 114 0.88 2011 112 -7.44 120 4.35 116 1.75 2012 131 16.96 121 0.83 118 1.72 2013 115 -12.21 136 12.40 122 3.39 2014 123 6.96 112 -17.65 130 6.56 2015 106 -13.82 120 7.14 121 -6.92 Avg. 125 -0.15 128 -0.48 131 -0.21 Note: ‘CiP’ refers to change in percent from previous year within same grade. Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction. Table 10: Enrollment History by Grade for Berlin High School, 1996-2015

Year Grade 9th 10th 11th 12th

# CiP # CiP # CiP # CiP 1996 161 156 176 171 1997 187 16.15 161 3.21 152 -13.64 168 -1.75 1998 184 -1.60 187 16.15 162 6.58 159 -5.36 1999 158 -14.13 180 -3.74 171 5.56 161 1.26 2000 155 -1.90 164 -8.89 169 -1.17 164 1.86



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2001 146 -5.81 157 -4.27 161 -4.73 164 0.00 2002 171 17.12 146 -7.01 152 -5.59 155 -5.49 2003 138 -19.30 159 8.90 150 -1.32 139 -10.32 2004 161 16.67 134 -15.72 153 2.00 142 2.16 2005 143 -11.18 162 20.90 135 -11.76 159 11.97 2006 175 22.38 142 -12.35 164 21.48 135 -15.09 2007 149 -14.86 176 23.94 138 -15.85 177 31.11 2008 156 4.70 148 -15.91 173 25.36 133 -24.86 2009 135 -13.46 153 3.38 147 -15.03 169 27.07 2010 129 -4.44 137 -10.46 145 -1.36 143 -15.38 2011 142 10.08 132 -3.65 134 -7.59 147 2.80 2012 130 -8.45 138 4.55 132 -1.49 136 -7.48 2013 144 10.77 133 -3.62 133 0.76 133 -2.21 2014 129 -10.42 145 9.02 136 2.26 133 0.00 2015 150 16.28 132 -8.97 151 11.03 132 -0.75 Avg. 152 0.45 152 -0.24 152 -0.24 151 -0.55 Note: ‘CiP’ refers to change in percent from previous year within same grade. Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction. SurvivalRates,1996-2015Table 11: Survival Rates by Grade for Combined Clay Lamberton & Poy Sippi Elementary Schools, 1996-2015

Year Grade K K to 1st

SR 1st 1st to 2nd

SR 2nd 2nd to 3rd

SR 3rd 3rd to 4th

SR 4th 4th to 5th

SR 5th

1996 124 94% 128 98% 111 112% 132 107% 131 105% 124 1997 129 105% 117 93% 125 104% 124 96% 141 103% 137 1998 100 107% 135 97% 109 95% 130 95% 119 93% 145 1999 109 112% 107 111% 131 100% 104 105% 124 106% 111 2000 100 110% 122 102% 119 94% 131 107% 109 114% 131 2001 98 95% 110 94% 124 100% 112 104% 140 101% 124 2002 98 114% 93 108% 103 105% 124 106% 117 105% 141 2003 115 106% 112 87% 100 103% 108 103% 132 101% 123 2004 103 102% 122 101% 97 112% 103 102% 111 108% 133 2005 95 104% 105 112% 123 97% 109 100% 105 103% 120 2006 128 98% 99 100% 118 94% 119 97% 109 98% 108 2007 106 102% 126 94% 99 102% 111 102% 115 100% 107 2008 117 107% 108 109% 119 97% 101 106% 113 103% 115 2009 114 108% 125 97% 118 97% 116 107% 107 101% 116 2010 96 100% 123 95% 121 98% 115 97% 124 106% 108 2011 102 115% 96 100% 117 101% 118 106% 111 103% 131 2012 96 97% 117 98% 96 101% 118 93% 125 100% 114 2013 104 101% 93 110% 115 99% 97 103% 110 95% 125 2014 97 97% 105 95% 102 89% 114 103% 100 92% 105 2015 90 94 100 91 117 92 Avg. SR 104% 100% 100% 102% 102% Note: SR indicates survival rate from given grade to subsequent grade in following school year.



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Note: Pre-K and K4 are not included in the calculation of survival rates due to volatility in enrollment during the past twenty years. Table 12: Survival Rates by Grade for Berlin Middle School, 1996-2015

Year Grades 5th to 6th

SR 6th 6th to 7th

SR 7th 7th to 8th

SR 8th

1996 108% 134 104% 154 97% 149 1997 99% 134 106% 139 99% 150 1998 94% 136 95% 142 95% 138 1999 107% 137 105% 129 105% 135 2000 112% 119 101% 144 107% 135 2001 93% 147 100% 120 99% 154 2002 108% 115 102% 147 103% 119 2003 94% 152 93% 117 100% 151 2004 102% 116 106% 142 106% 117 2005 94% 136 102% 123 105% 150 2006 104% 113 105% 139 98% 129 2007 106% 112 100% 119 97% 136 2008 105% 113 104% 112 101% 115 2009 104% 121 95% 118 97% 113 2010 104% 121 99% 115 101% 114 2011 100% 112 108% 120 98% 116 2012 101% 131 104% 121 101% 118 2013 98% 115 97% 136 96% 122 2014 101% 123 98% 112 108% 130 2015 106 120 121 Avg. SR 102% 101% 101% Note: SR indicates survival rate from given grade to subsequent grade in following school year. Table 13: Survival Rates by Grade for Berlin High School, 1996-2015

Year Grades

8th to 9th SR

9th 9th to 10th SR

10th 10th to 11th SR

11th 11th to 12th SR

12th

1996 126% 161 100% 156 97% 176 95% 171 1997 123% 187 100% 161 101% 152 105% 168 1998 114% 184 98% 187 91% 162 99% 159 1999 115% 158 104% 180 94% 171 96% 161 2000 108% 155 101% 164 98% 169 97% 164 2001 111% 146 100% 157 97% 161 96% 164 2002 116% 171 93% 146 103% 152 91% 155 2003 107% 138 97% 159 96% 150 95% 139 2004 122% 161 101% 134 101% 153 104% 142 2005 117% 143 99% 162 101% 135 100% 159 2006 116% 175 101% 142 97% 164 108% 135 2007 115% 149 99% 176 98% 138 96% 177 2008 117% 156 98% 148 99% 173 98% 133 2009 114% 135 101% 153 95% 147 97% 169



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2010 125% 129 102% 137 98% 145 101% 143 2011 112% 142 97% 132 100% 134 101% 147 2012 122% 130 102% 138 96% 132 101% 136 2013 106% 144 101% 133 102% 133 100% 133 2014 115% 129 102% 145 104% 136 97% 133 2015 150 132 151 132 Avg. SR 116% 100% 98% 99% Note: SR indicates survival rate from given grade to subsequent grade in following school year. ProjectedAnnualEnrollmentbySchoolUtilizingMethodB,2016-2025 Tables14through16presenttheprojectedannualenrollmentbygradeforeachschoolintheDistrictfortheyears2016through2025.Theprojectedenrollmentforeachyear’sKindergartenclasswascalculatedbycombiningthetwenty-yearaverageandpreviousyear’senrollmentthendividingbytwo.Theprojectionsforgradesonethroughtwelvearebaseduponthetwenty-yearaveragesurvivalratespresentedintheprevioussetoftables.PreparingaccurateenrollmentprojectionsforPre-KandK4isnotpracticableduetothevariableandunpredictablenatureofpastenrollmentwithinthesegrades.Theprojectedannualenrollmentof96forPre-K/K4wasdeterminedbyaddingactual2015enrollment(92)totheaverageofthepastfiveyears(100.5)anddividingbytwo.Table 14: Annual Projected Enrollment by Grade for Clay Lamberton Elementary School under Method B, 2016-2025

Year Grade Pre-K / K4 K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total

2015 92 90 94 100 91 117 92 676 2016 96 98 94 94 100 93 119 694 2017 96 102 102 94 94 102 95 684 2018 96 104 106 102 94 96 104 702 2019 96 105 108 106 102 95 98 710 2020 96 106 109 108 106 104 97 726 2021 96 106 110 109 108 108 106 743 2022 96 106 110 110 109 110 110 751 2023 96 106 110 110 110 111 113 756 2024 96 106 110 110 110 112 114 758 2025 96 106 110 110 110 112 114 759 Note: Preparing accurate enrollment projections for Pre-K and K4 is not practicable due to the variable and unpredictable nature of past enrollment within these ‘grades.’ The projected annual enrollment for Pre-K / K4, determined by adding actual 2015 enrollment (92) to the average of the past five years (100.5) and dividing by two, was applied to each year through 2025.



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Table 15: Annual Projected Enrollment by Grade for Berlin Middle School under Method B, 2016-2025 Year Grade

6th 7th 8th Total 2015 106 120 121 347 2016 94 107 121 322 2017 121 95 108 324 2018 96 123 96 315 2019 106 97 124 327 2020 100 107 98 305 2021 99 101 108 308 2022 108 100 102 310 2023 112 109 101 322 2024 115 113 110 338 2025 116 116 115 346 Table 16: Annual Projected Enrollment by Grade for Berlin High School under Method B, 2016-2025

Year Grade 9th 10th 11th 12th Total

2015 150 132 151 132 565

2016 140 150 130 149 569 2017 140 140 148 128 556 2018 125 140 138 146 549 2019 111 125 138 136 510 2020 144 111 123 136 514 2021 114 144 109 122 488 2022 125 114 141 108 488 2023 118 125 112 140 494 2024 117 118 123 111 469 2025 127 117 116 122 482 VII. MethodC:BlendedModelMethodCbalancesandrectifiestheinherentbiasesinthepreviousmodels.ItwasdevelopedbycalculatingtheaverageprojectionsdevelopedunderMethodsAandBfortheyears2020and2025.Thataveragewasthenappliedannually,weightedtoreflectthehigherrateofaccuracyforMethodBintheshort-term.Aratioof1:5wasappliedtotheprojectionsdevelopedunderMethodsAandB,respectively,forthe2016-17schoolyear.Theratioshiftsto1:4for2017,1:3for2018,1:2in2019,and1:1fortheyear2020,whereitremainsthroughthe2025-26schoolyearreflectingtheincreasingveracityofthepopulation-basedmodel.Weretheprojectionstoextendbeyondtenyears,theratiowouldshiftincreasinglyinfavorofMethodA.



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TheprojectionsdevelopedunderMethodCaretobeconsideredtherecommendedprojectionsforthepurposesofthispopulationstudy.

VIII. WisconsinOpenEnrollmentProgram1 Wisconsin’sInter-DistrictPublicSchoolOpenEnrollmentProgramallowsparentstoapplyfortheirchildrentoattendpublicschoolinaschooldistrictotherthantheoneinwhichtheyreside.Theprogramfirsttookeffectduringthe1998-99schoolyear.Itisintendedtoencouragecompetitionamongdistrictsasameansoffosteringimprovementinpublicschoolsandtoprovidefamilieswith

1 Excerpted from Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, Public School Open Enrollment program.

Table 17: Annual Projected Enrollment for Clay Lamberton Elementary School under Method C, 2016-2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Method A 676 689 702 716 729 742 745 749 752 756 759

Method B 676 694 684 702 710 726 743 751 756 758 759

Ratio (A to B) -- 1:5 1:4 1:3 1:2 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1

Projected Enrollment -- 693 688 706 716 734 744 750 754 757 759

Table 18: Annual Projected Enrollment for Berlin Middle School under Method C, 2016-2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Method A 347 358 370 381 393 404 406 408 410 412 414

Method B 347 322 324 315 327 305 308 310 322 338 346

Ratio (A to B) -- 1:5 1:4 1:3 1:2 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1


Table 19: Annual Projected Enrollment for Berlin High School under Method C, 2016-2025 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Method A 565 577 589 601 613 625 628 631 635 638 641

Method B 565 569 556 549 510 514 488 488 494 469 482

Ratio (A to B) -- 1:5 1:4 1:3 1:2 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1




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increasedflexibilityintheireducationalchoices.Stateaidforeachstudent’sinstructionalcostsistransferredfromthesendingtothereceivingdistrict.Familiesofstudentswhotransferfromtheirlocaldistrictdonotpaytuition.However,alocaldistrictlosesstateaidforeachstudentwhotransferstoanotherdistrictandgainsforeachstudenttransferringfromanotherdistrict.AnyWisconsinresidentinfive-year-oldkindergartento12thgrademayapplytoattendanonresidentschooldistrictundertheprogram.However,achildmaytransfertoanonresidentschooldistrictforearlychildhoodeducationorfour-year-oldkindergartenonlyifthechild’sresidentschooldistrictoffersthesametypeofprogramandonlyifthechildiseligibleforthatprogramintheresidentschooldistrict.LeadingFactorsAffectingOpenEnrollment2Anumberofstudiesandsurveyshavebeenconductedsincetheprogrambegantodeterminethefactorsthatleadparentstochoosetoenrolltheirchildreninschooldistrictsoutsideoftheonewithinwhichtheylive.Amongthereasonscitedbyparentsinclude:

! Convenience(proximitytoworkplace,childcarefacilities,neighboringschools).! Smallerclasssizes.! Modernandsafefacilities.! Testscores.! Athleticandotherextra-curricularactivities.

OpenEnrollmentintheBerlinAreaSchoolDistrictBASDstudentsbeganparticipatingintheOpenEnrollmentprogramfromitsinceptionin1998.Eachyearsince,theDistricthasmonitoredthenumberofstudentsineachgradethathaveutilizedtheprogram.Figure5presentstheenrollment-inandenrollment-outfiguresfromthe1998-99through2015-16schoolyears.‘OpenEnrollmentIn’referstoschool-ageresidentslivingoutsideoftheDistrictwhohavechosentoattendClayLamberton,BerlinMiddle,orBerlinHighSchool.‘OpenEnrollmentOut’includesthosestudentswholivewithinthebordersofBASDbutattendaschoolinanotherschooldistrict.UnlikemanyschooldistrictsinWisconsin,enrollment-inand-outnumbersatBASDhaveremainedrelativelybalancedduringtheeighteen-yeartenureoftheprogram.Theaveragedifferencebetweenthenumberenrollinginandthosewhoenrollouthasbeenfivestudents,or4%ofthetotalof2,028(infavorofopenenrollmentout).Thedifferenceshiftedupwardslightly,to5%,whenlimitedtothepastfiveyears.Althoughthedataindicatesnostatisticallysignificantdifferencebetweenthe‘OEIn’andOEOut’numbers,theDistrictshouldcontinuetomonitoropenenrollmentfigureswhendeterminingwhethertoexpandoreliminatecurricula,staff,orprogramming.

2 Excerpted from Inter-District Open Enrollment and The Oconomowoc Area School District, Derick M. Kiger, January 2007.



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IX. CapacityofCurrentFacilitiesThechartsthatappearonthefollowingpagecomparethecapacityofthethreeDistrictschooltocurrentandprojectedenrollment.Figure9comparestotalenrollmentwithintheDistrictasawhole.Note:AlthoughFigure6showsenrollmentbreachingcurrentcapacitybythe2020-21schoolyear,approximatelyonehundredofthestudentsincludedwithintheannualenrollmenttotalsattendK4classesatafacilityotherthanClayLambertonElementary.

676 693 688

706 716

734 744 750 754 757 759

620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Enro

llmen

t

School Year

Figure 6: CLES Projected Enrollment vs. Facility Capacity, 2015-2025

Capacity

Enrollment

4 10 14

21 27

33 35 36 50

58 66 69 69

79

110 96 100 96

54

11 13 23 26 30 31

37 47

53 67

74 66 63

78

97 106

115 118

59

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Num

ber

School Year

Figure 5: BASD Open Enrollment 'In' and 'Out', 1998-99 to 2015-16

OE In

OE out



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347 328 333 332 349 355 357 359 366 375 380

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Enro

llmen

t

School Year

Figure 7: BMS Projected Enrollment vs. Facility Capacity, 2015-2025

Capacity

Enrollment

565 570 563 562 544 548 558 560 565 554 562

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Enro

llmen

t

School Year

Figure 8: BHS Projected Enrollment vs. Facility Capacity, 2015-2025

Capacity

Enrollment

1588 1591 1584 1600 1609 1637 1659 1669 1685 1686 1701

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Enro

llmen

t

School Year

Figure 9: BASD Total Projected Enrollment vs. Facility Capacity, 2015-2025

Capacity

Enrollment



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X. SummaryTheWisconsinDepartmentofAdministration-DemographicServicesCenterprojectsanincreasingpopulationforthemunicipalitieswithintheBerlinAreaSchoolDistrict.Accordingly,theprojectionsdevelopedunderMethodA,whicharebaseduponWDOA-DSCdata,anticipatesimilarincreases.MethodB,whichutilizeshistoricsurvivalratestopredictfutureenrollment,alsoforecastsanoverallincreaseindistrict-wideenrollment,albeitwithdecliningenrollmentatBerlinHighSchool.MethodC,thepreferredprojectionsmodel,balancesthepreviousmethodologiestoprovidethemoreaccuratemodelforbudgeting,staffing,andfacilitiesplanningpurposes.Baseduponthemethodologiesusedtopreparethispopulationstudy,theBerlinAreaSchoolDistrictcananticipatea7.1%increaseintotalenrollmentduringthenexttenyears.

Finally,Wisconsin’sOpenEnrollmentProgramhashadalimitedaffect,thusfar,onenrollmentwithinBASD.Duringtheeighteenyearsthattheprogramhasbeenavailable,thenumberofstudentsenrollingouthasonlyslightlysurpassedthatofthoseenrollingin.TheDistrictshouldcontinuetocarefullymonitortheOpenEnrollmentprogramandconsiderpreliminarystrategiestooffsetanyfutureincreasesinenrollmentout.

Table 20: Annual Projected Enrollment for Clay Lamberton Elementary School, Berlin Middle School, Berlin High School, and Berlin Area School District under Method C, 2016-2025

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Clay Lamberton Elementary 676 693 688 706 716 734 744 750 754 757 759

Berlin Middle 347 328 333 332 349 355 357 359 366 375 380

Berlin High 565 570 563 562 544 548 558 560 565 554 562

BASD Total 1,588 1,591 1,584 1,600 1,609 1,637 1,659 1,669 1,685 1,686 1,701

Documents

Berlin Area School District Student Population Studymedia.virbcdn.com/files/f0/cbe454998821643c-FinalBASD.pdf · 2016-09-20 · Berlin Area School District Ten-Year Student Population