Belief, Truth, and Reality - 1

Belief, Truth, and Reality - 1Belief, Truth, and Reality - 1

Just because you believe that something is Just because you believe that something is

true doesn’t mean that it is.true doesn’t mean that it is.

Just because a group of people believe that Just because a group of people believe that

something is true doesn’t mean that it is.something is true doesn’t mean that it is.

There is such a thing as objective truth. A There is such a thing as objective truth. A

common reality exists – a pragmatic non-common reality exists – a pragmatic non-

disproved assumption.disproved assumption.

Belief, Truth, and Reality - 2Belief, Truth, and Reality - 2

D.D. Facts do not cease to exist because they are Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. ignored.

E.E. Truth is something we can attempt to doubt, Truth is something we can attempt to doubt,

and then perhaps, after much exertion, and then perhaps, after much exertion,

discover that part of the doubt is unjustified.discover that part of the doubt is unjustified.

F.F. ““I am obliged not to belief” - René Magritte.I am obliged not to belief” - René Magritte.

Knowledge, Belief, and Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence - 1Evidence - 1

A.A. We are justified in believing a proposition when We are justified in believing a proposition when we have no good reason to doubt it, i.e. when we we have no good reason to doubt it, i.e. when we have no evidence to the contrary for the moment.have no evidence to the contrary for the moment.

B.B. There is good reason to doubt a proposition if it There is good reason to doubt a proposition if it conflicts with other propositions we have good conflicts with other propositions we have good reason to believe, i.e. which are entrenched.reason to believe, i.e. which are entrenched.

C.C. The more background information a proposition The more background information a proposition conflicts with, the more reason there is to doubt it.conflicts with, the more reason there is to doubt it.


D.D. When there is good reason to doubt a When there is good reason to doubt a proposition, we should proportion our proposition, we should proportion our belief to the evidence.belief to the evidence.

E.E. There is good reason to doubt a There is good reason to doubt a proposition if it conflicts with expert proposition if it conflicts with expert opinion.opinion.

F.F. Just because someone is an expert in one Just because someone is an expert in one field doesn’t mean that he is an expert in field doesn’t mean that he is an expert in another.another.


G.G. If we have no reason to doubt what’s If we have no reason to doubt what’s disclosed to us through perception, disclosed to us through perception, introspection, memory, or reason, then introspection, memory, or reason, then we’re justified in believing it.we’re justified in believing it.

H.H. To doubt everything or to believe To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally excessive everything are two equally excessive convenient solutions: they both dispense convenient solutions: they both dispense with the necessity of reflection.with the necessity of reflection.

Error - 1Error - 1 The three prime spheres of human concern The three prime spheres of human concern

are are beliefbelief,, behaviour behaviour,, andand evaluation evaluation, which , which

correlate with matters of correlate with matters of factfact,, action action,, andand

valuevalue. .

Cognitive errorCognitive error arises from failures in the arises from failures in the

attainment of correct beliefs.attainment of correct beliefs.

Practical errorPractical error arises from failures in relation arises from failures in relation

to the objectives of action.to the objectives of action.

Axiological errorAxiological error appertains to mistakes in appertains to mistakes in

regard to evaluation.regard to evaluation.

Error - 2Error - 2

Where there is Where there is cognitivecognitive errorerror, one inclines to , one inclines to question the quality of the agent’s question the quality of the agent’s intellectual intellectual competencecompetence; with ; with practicalpractical errorerror, the quality of , the quality of the agent’s the agent’s performanceperformance competencecompetence; and with ; and with evaluativeevaluative errorerror, the quality of the agent’s , the quality of the agent’s judgementjudgement, if not character., if not character.

In an intelligent being, whose actions issue from In an intelligent being, whose actions issue from beliefs through the mediation of judgements, beliefs through the mediation of judgements, the three kinds of error are closely interrelatedthe three kinds of error are closely interrelated..

Error - 3Error - 3

Error is commonplaceError is commonplace in human affairs in human affairs

because because Homo sapiensHomo sapiens are limited creatures are limited creatures

whose needs and wants outrun their whose needs and wants outrun their

available capabilities.available capabilities.

A A liability to errorliability to error is thus inherent in the very is thus inherent in the very

nature of our situation as beings of nature of our situation as beings of limited limited

experienceexperience in a world of endless in a world of endless complexitycomplexity. .

Specifically, cognitive error roots in our Specifically, cognitive error roots in our

human human need to resolveneed to resolve issues of thought and issues of thought and

action in action in conditions ofconditions of imperfect informationimperfect information..

Error - 4Error - 4 Errors generally arise in relation to aims and Errors generally arise in relation to aims and

purposes. They require intention purposes. They require intention –– at least implicitly at least implicitly

–– regarding the sorts of purposes that people regarding the sorts of purposes that people shouldshould

have. have. Error is aError is a fundamental fundamental purposive conceptpurposive concept that that

takes the realization of certain objectives into view. takes the realization of certain objectives into view.

ExpectationsExpectations might not be met. might not be met.

Not only individual actions but entire Not only individual actions but entire processesprocesses and and

proceduresprocedures for belief establishment can be for belief establishment can be

erroneouserroneous. This is the case with those who are . This is the case with those who are

enmeshed in enmeshed in fallaciesfallacies of reasoning of any sort. of reasoning of any sort.

Error - 5Error - 5 One can err not only in point of some specific One can err not only in point of some specific

belief, action, or evaluation but also in regard to belief, action, or evaluation but also in regard to the general way in which one proceeds in these the general way in which one proceeds in these matters. Such matters. Such systemic errorssystemic errors are of course are of course more serious.more serious.

This points to the important difference between This points to the important difference between proceduralprocedural and and substantivesubstantive error. While error. While procedural error is apt to issue in substantive procedural error is apt to issue in substantive error as well, it is not inevitable that it do so. The error as well, it is not inevitable that it do so. The flaw of procedural error lies not in the flaw of procedural error lies not in the necessarily incorrectness of its result – it may necessarily incorrectness of its result – it may ocasionally be correct – but rather on its total ocasionally be correct – but rather on its total unreliabilityunreliability..

Error - 6Error - 6

The The magnitudemagnitude of an of an errorerror depends on two depends on two factors, its factors, its extentextent and its and its gravitygravity. .

ExtentExtent is a matter of the is a matter of the rangerange of issues of issues involved in an error: its substantitive involved in an error: its substantitive ramificationsramifications. It stands correlative to the . It stands correlative to the scalescale of the requisite of the requisite correctionscorrections: to the : to the volume and scope of what must be done volume and scope of what must be done to put matters right.to put matters right.

Error - 7Error - 7

GravityGravity is a matter of the is a matter of the magnitude of magnitude of

consequencesconsequences..

A A cognitive errorcognitive error is seriousis serious to the extent that it to the extent that it

carries further errors in its wake, be they carries further errors in its wake, be they

themselves practical or merely cognitive.themselves practical or merely cognitive.

And And practical errorpractical error is seriousis serious to the extent that to the extent that

the actions involved result in harm or other the actions involved result in harm or other

misfortune.misfortune.

Error - 8Error - 8

Some Some evaluativeevaluative questions relate to what is questions relate to what is

entirely a matter of taste, of sheer entirely a matter of taste, of sheer subjectivesubjective

preferencepreference rather than inherently objective rather than inherently objective

preferability.preferability.

However, with many However, with many evaluativeevaluative matters error matters error

is indeed possible, though here we tend to is indeed possible, though here we tend to

talk of talk of errors of judgementerrors of judgement or decision or decision

making.making.

Error - 9Error - 9

Evaluative errors excepted, errors come in two Evaluative errors excepted, errors come in two basic forms: those of basic forms: those of omissionomission and those of and those of commissioncommission..

Errors of omission are Errors of omission are failures to accept truefailures to accept true facts in the cognitive case, and facts in the cognitive case, and failures to dofailures to do what is circumstantially required in the practical.what is circumstantially required in the practical.

Errors of commission lie in Errors of commission lie in accepting falsehoodsaccepting falsehoods in the cognitive case, performing in the cognitive case, performing counterproductive actionscounterproductive actions in the practical. in the practical.

Error - 10Error - 10

In cognitive contexts, errors of omission In cognitive contexts, errors of omission consist in giving consist in giving partial and incomplete partial and incomplete answersanswers to the questions at issue. to the questions at issue.

Most serious here are Most serious here are misleading answersmisleading answers, , which, while in themselves correct which, while in themselves correct nevertheless embody suggestions and nevertheless embody suggestions and implications that point in an entirely implications that point in an entirely wrong wrong directiondirection and could or would be corrected if and could or would be corrected if only the ommitted information were also only the ommitted information were also supplied.supplied.


In practical goal-directed contexts, errors In practical goal-directed contexts, errors of omission consist in of omission consist in failingfailing, for whatever , for whatever reason, reason, to doto do those things required to those things required to facilitate realization of the goal at issue.facilitate realization of the goal at issue.

This is, of course, most This is, of course, most seriousserious in the case in the case of of mandatorymandatory goalsgoals, be they , be they prudential or prudential or moralmoral. It is, or should be, clear that errors . It is, or should be, clear that errors (sins) of omission can be every bit as (sins) of omission can be every bit as serious as those of commission.serious as those of commission.

Error - 12Error - 12 The ultimate The ultimate ideal of absolute perfectionideal of absolute perfection is is

outside our grasp: the prospect of proceeding outside our grasp: the prospect of proceeding in ways wholly free from the risk of error is in ways wholly free from the risk of error is not not attainableattainable because there is an inherent because there is an inherent trade-trade-offoff between errors of between errors of commission and omissioncommission and omission..

They stand in They stand in inseparable coordinationinseparable coordination: any : any realistically workable mechanism of cognition realistically workable mechanism of cognition can only avoid errors of commission – i.e. can only avoid errors of commission – i.e. excluding truths – at the expense of incurring excluding truths – at the expense of incurring errors of omission – i.e. including untruths.errors of omission – i.e. including untruths.


The The risk of errorrisk of error is unavoidable throughout the is unavoidable throughout the cognitive enterprise, and the cognitive enterprise, and the control of errorcontrol of error is is a key aspect of rational inquiry. Since error a key aspect of rational inquiry. Since error cannot be eliminated from human affairs, we cannot be eliminated from human affairs, we have little choice but to make the most of it.have little choice but to make the most of it.

Our only route to cognitive progress proceeds Our only route to cognitive progress proceeds along a pathway paved with error – we are along a pathway paved with error – we are creatures to whom truth becomes available creatures to whom truth becomes available only by risking error. Our only by risking error. Our knowledge grows by knowledge grows by eliminating erroreliminating error..


Clearly, this Clearly, this via negativavia negativa of error of error elimination is not the most promising way elimination is not the most promising way to knowledge acquisition.to knowledge acquisition.

Nevertheless, one of the best and most Nevertheless, one of the best and most effective standards by which to test any effective standards by which to test any proposed method or process of knowledge proposed method or process of knowledge production lies in its capacity to production lies in its capacity to minimize minimize the chances of errorthe chances of error..

Error - 15Error - 15 The The roadways to error are too numerousroadways to error are too numerous to to

admit of anything like a compreehensive listing. admit of anything like a compreehensive listing. The best we can do is to give a handful of The best we can do is to give a handful of

prominent examples with regard to prominent examples with regard to cognitive cognitive errorerror: inattention, misjudgement, confusion and : inattention, misjudgement, confusion and conflation, miscalculation, under- and over-conflation, miscalculation, under- and over-estimation, leaping to conclusions.estimation, leaping to conclusions.

Correspondingly, Correspondingly, error reductionerror reduction can take many can take many forms: concentration of effort, double checking, forms: concentration of effort, double checking, proofreading, getting second opinions.proofreading, getting second opinions.

Error - 16Error - 16 There is also the issue of There is also the issue of damage controldamage control – of – of

measures we can take to mitigate the measures we can take to mitigate the consequences of errors if and when they occur consequences of errors if and when they occur despite our best efforts at minimizing them.despite our best efforts at minimizing them.

Safety engineeringSafety engineering is the enterprise of error is the enterprise of error management. Its definite aims are two: management. Its definite aims are two: reducing reducing the chancethe chance of an occurrence of error and of an occurrence of error and reducing reducing the negative consequencesthe negative consequences of error should it of error should it occur.occur.

Safety engineering, even in inquiry, requires a Safety engineering, even in inquiry, requires a proper proper balance between costs and benefitsbalance between costs and benefits..

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Belief, Truth, and Reality - 1