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Beijing office
market report
北京写字楼市场报告 Q1 2014
2014 年第一季度
OFFICE MARKET
写字楼市场
RESEARCH
研究报告
2
Q1 2014 beijing OFFICE MARKET REPORT
Beijing Grade-A office monitor
Indicator Q1 2014 figure QoQ change Outlook
(Q2 2014)
New supply 0 Sqm - ↗
Rental 377 RMB / sqm / month 1.1% ↔
Vacancy rate 6.0% 1.0 percentage point ↔
Capital value 57,269 RMB / sqm 1.0% ↗
Yield 6.0% 0.1 percentage point ↘
Source: Knight Frank
Highlights
Real estate investment edged up by 3.2% to
RMB24.36 billion during the first two months of
2014. Retail sales recorded at RMB140.23 billion,
an increase of merely 3%, signaling slower
economic growth.
Office rents have lost momentum due to weak
demand from international firms and slower
domestic economic growth. In the first quarter,
the average rent of Grade-A offices in Beijing fell
another 1.1% quarter on quarter to RMB377 per
sqm per month.
There was no new Grade-A office supply in the
first quarter. The vacancy rate rose 1 percentage
point to 6.0%, which was the second consecutive
quarterly rise. However, it was still a low level.
Rents of Grade-A offices in Beijing continued to fall in the first quarter of 2014 due to macro-economic
slowdown. Market vacancy rates rose slightly. Rents are expected to experience slight adjustments in the
second quarter.
The average transaction price of Grade-A offices
remained on the upward track, gaining 1.0%
quarter on quarter in the first quarter. It was the
19th consecutive quarterly increase since the
second quarter of 2009, with an accumulated
growth rate of 111%. However, the growth rate
started to narrow down to around 1% in the
fourth quarter of 2013, much slower compared
with those in previous quarters.
Two new office projects are expected to launch
in the second quarter, providing 100,000 sqm of
Grade-A office space. The vacancy rate is
anticipated to remain at around 5% and rents
are expected to experience slight adjustments in
the second quarter.
3
KnightFrank.com.cn
Source: Knight Frank
Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation
Real estate investment in Beijing
edged up 3.2% year on year to
RMB24.36 billion during the first
two months of 2014. Retail sales
recorded at RMB140.23 billion, an
increase of merely 3%, signaling
economic growth slowdown.
Office rents have lost momentum
due to weak demand from
international firms and tepid
domestic economic growth. In the
first quarter, the average rent of
Grade-A offices in Beijing fell
another 1.1% quarter on quarter
to RMB377 per sqm per month,
which was the fourth consecutive
drop since the second quarter of
2013.
The average rents in CBD and
Financial Street fell 1.1% and 1.0%
to RMB415 and RMB483 per sqm
per month, respectively. Rents in
East Second Ring Road and
Lufthansa both went up 1.9% to
RMB368 and RMB321 per sqm per
month, respectively. Rents in the
Zhongguancun area remained
stable.
Grade-A office vacancy rate is
anticipated to remain low in the
second quarter. The probability of
a significant drop in rental levels is
slim. Rents are anticipated to
experience slight adjustments in
the second quarter.
Source: Knight Frank
75
90
105
120
135
150
165
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
Beijing Grade-A office market indicators, Q1 2014
Submarket
Rent
(RMB / sqm/
month)
Rent %
change
(QoQ)
Vacancy
rate
Vacancy rate
percentage
point change
(QoQ)
CBD 415 1.1 7.9% 1.2
Lufthansa 321 1.9 7.5% 1.5
Financial Street 483 1.0 0% ↔
East Second Ring
Road 368 1.9 2.7% ↔
Zhongguancun 310 0.7 4.3% 0.1
Beijing major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q1 2014
District Building Floor / unit Area
(sqm)
Rent
(RMB / sqm /
month)
Chaoyang Central Place Mid floor unit 859 400
Chaoyang Phoenix Place
Tower High floor unit 600 380
Xicheng
Windland
International
Financial
Center
High floor unit 600 740
Haidian Raycom
Infotech Park A High floor unit 230 370
RENTS
Beijing Grade-A office rental index
2013Q1=100
4
Q1 2014 beijing OFFICE MARKET REPORT
Shanghai commercial land transaction volume and value (Q1 2010-Q3 2013)
There was no new supply in the
Grade-A office market in Beijing
during the first quarter. Two new
office projects are expected to launch
in the second quarter, providing
100,000 sqm office space.
The average vacancy rate rose 1
percentage point to 6.0% in the first
quarter. The Financial Street area
remained fully occupied. In the CBD
and Lufthansa areas, the vacancy
rates increased by 1.2 and 1.5
percentage points to 7.9% and 7.5%,
respectively. Other major commercial
areas did not see significant changes
in their vacancy rates.
Beijing Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy rate
Beijing Grade-A office price index
2008 Q1=100
Source: Knight Frank
The average transaction price of
Grade-A offices remained on the
upward track, gaining 1.0% quarter on
quarter in the first quarter. It was the
19th consecutive quarterly growth since
the second quarter of 2009, an
accumulated growth of 111%.
Capital yields went down another 0.1
percentage point to 6.0% during the
first quarter.
Beijing major Grade-A office sales transactions, Q1 2014
District Building Floor Area (sqm) Price (RMB / sqm)
Shijingshan Galaxy Wealth Center n/a 350 51,500
Chaoyang R&F City n/a 150 109,500
Chaoyang Meilishan n/a 290 32,600
Source: Knight Frank
Sales and investment
Supply and demand
Source: Knight Frank
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F
'000 sq m
Supply(LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy Rate(RHS)
5
KnightFrank.com.cn
由于国内经济发展放缓, 第一季度北京市甲级写字楼租金水平继续小幅下跌,市场空置率小幅上
调,预计二季度租金水平将继续小幅调整。
1-2月,北京市完成房地产开发投资人民币243.6亿元,
同比仅增长3.2%。全市实现社会消费品零售额人民币
1,402.3亿元,同比增长3%,增速明显放缓。
由于国内经济发展增速放缓,同时外资企业需求疲软,
写字楼租金水平上升动力缺失,第一季度北京市甲级
写字楼租金水平延续上个季度的下跌趋势,环比小幅
下调1.1% 到每月每平方米人民币377元。
第一季度,市场没有新增供应,平均空置率上调1个百
分点到6.0%,虽然市场空置率连续第二个季度上调,
但依然保持在较低水平。
从投资市场来看,一季度写字楼成交价格继续保持于
上升轨道,环比上涨1.0%,这是自2009年第二季度以
来连续第19个季度的环比上涨,累积增幅达111%。但
是,从2013年第四个季度以来,成交价格的增速已经
放缓到1.0%左右,明显低于之前的季度增幅。
第二季度预计有两个甲级写字楼项目入市,为市场增
加10万平方米的面积,市场空置率预计将保持在5%上
下,基于此,预计北京甲级写字楼租金水平将在第二
季度继续小幅调整。
北京甲级写字楼观察
指标 2014 年第一季数字 按季变幅 预测 (2014 第二季)
新增供应 0 平方米 - ↗
租金 377每月每平方米人民币 1.1% ↔
空置率 6.0% 1.0 个百分点 ↔
价格 57,269 每平方米人民币 1.0% ↗
投资回报率 6.0% 0.1 个百分点 ↘
资料來源︰萊坊
焦点
6
2014年第一季度
北京写字楼市场报告
资料来源:莱坊
北京甲级写字楼租金指数 2013Q1=100
资料来源:莱坊 注︰所有成交均有待落实。
75
90
105
120
135
150
165
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
北京甲级写字楼主要市场指标,2014 年第一季度
区域
租金
(人民币 /
平方米 /月)
租金
环比变幅(%) 空置率
空置率
环比变幅(百分点)
中央商务区 415 1.1 7.9% 1.2
燕莎 321 1.9 7.5% 1.5
金融街 483 1.0 0% ↔
东二环 368 1.9 2.7% ↔
中关村 310 0.7 4.3% 0.1
北京甲级写字楼主要租赁成交,2014 年第一季度
区域 项目 楼层 面积
(平方米)
租金
(人民币 / 平方米
/ 月)
朝阳 华贸中心 中区 859 400
朝阳 凤凰置地广场 高区 600 380
西城 英蓝国际中心 高区 600 740
海淀 融科资讯中心
A座 高区 230 370
租金
及价格 1-2月,北京市完成房地产开发投资人
民币243.6亿元,同比仅增长3.2%。全
市实现社会消费品零售额人民币
1,402.3亿元,同比增长3%,增速明显
放缓。
鉴于国内经济发展增速放缓,同时外资
企业需求疲软,写字楼租金水平上升动
力缺失,第一季度北京市甲级写字楼租
金水平延续上个季度的下跌趋势,环比
小幅下调1.1% 到每月每平方米人民币
377元。这是自2013年第二季度以来连
续第四个季度环比下跌。
分区域来看,中央商务区和金融街的租
金水平分别下降了1.1% 和1.0%至每月
每平方米人民币415元和483元,东二环
和燕莎区域均上调了1.9%至分别每月
每平方米人民币368和321元,中关村区
域租金水平持平。
目前市场空置率仍然偏低,基于此,预
计北京甲级写字楼租金水平大幅下跌
的可能性较小,预计第二季度继续小幅
调整。
7
KnightFrank.com.cn
第一季度写字楼成交价格继续保持于上升轨
道,环比上涨 1.0%,这是自 2009 年第二季
度以来连续第 19 个季度的环比上涨,累积增
幅达 111%。
甲级写字楼平均收益率继续下降 0.1 个百分
点至 6.0%。
北京甲级写字楼供应量、吸纳量及空置率
0%
50%
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014F2015F
'000 sq m
供应(左轴) 净吸纳(左轴)
资料来源:莱坊
北京甲级写字楼价格指数
北京甲级写字楼主要销售成交,2014 年第一季度
区域 项目 楼层 面积(平方米) 成交价格(人民币 / 平方米)
石景山 银河财智中心 n/a 350
51,500
朝阳 富力城 n/a 150
109,500
朝阳 美利山 n/a 290
32,600
资料来源:莱坊
供应与需求
第一季度,北京市甲级写字楼市场没有新增
供应。二季度预计有两个写字楼项目入市,
提供约 10 万平方米的新增面积。市场供应量
偏低。
第一季度市场平均空置率上浮 1 个百分点到
6.0%。分区域来看,金融街区域的写字楼持
续满租。中央商务区写字楼空置率上升 1.2 个
百分点至 7.9%,燕莎区域上升 1.5 个百分点
至 7.5%,其他区域没有显著变化。
销售与投资
资料来源:莱坊
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F
'000 sq m
供应(左轴) 净吸纳(左轴) 空置率(右轴)
2008 Q1=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
8
2014年第一季度
北京写字楼市场报告
Research & Consultancy
Thomas Lam
Director, Head of Research & Consultancy
Greater China
+852 2846 4819
Regina Yang
Director, Head of Research & Consultancy
Shanghai
+86 21 6032 1728
Jingjing Zhang
Associate Director,
Head of Research & Consultancy
Beijing
+86 10 6113 8022
Beijing office leasing
Major Chen
Associate Director,
Commercial Services, Beijing
+86 10 6113 8032
General enquiries
East & Central China
Graham Zink
Managing Director
+86 21 6032 1700
North China
Hengky Nayoan
Managing Director
+86 10 6113 8011
South China
Clement Leung
Executive Director
+852 2846 9593
研究及咨询部
林浩文
董事及研究及咨询部主管,大中华区
+852 2846 4819
杨悦晨
董事及研究及咨询部主管,上海
+86 21 6032 1728
张婧婧
副董事及研究及咨询部主管,北京
+86 10 6113 8022
北京写字楼租赁
陈晓
副董事,商业物业代理部,北京
+86 10 6113 8032
一般查询
华东及华中
葛汉文
董事总经理
+86 21 6032 1700
华北 何金亮
董事总经理
+86 10 6113 8011
华南 梁伟明
执行董事
+852 2846 9593
RESEARCH
研究报告
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