Behind Magufulis Political Stunts

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Behind Magufulis political stunts

Written by By Andrew M Mwenda

Monday, 18 January 2016 06:30

Why Tanzanias new president is doing the right thing the wrong way and why he may

fail

Since early November 2015, newly elected Tanzanian president, John Pombe Magufuli, has

captured the imagination of many African elites on social media by his brazen actions of cutting

unnecessary government spending and firing incompetent and lazy government employees.

He visited a hospital unannounced and after being appalled by its sorry state, fired management

and the board right on the spot. He went to the port of Dar es Salaam, and seeing the mess,

fired the entire management there and then. He cancelled independence anniversary

celebrations and directed that the money be used for health services. He cut foreign trips by

government officials saying ambassadors can do the work. The story goes on and on.

The hype about Magufuli on social media shows us how easily gullible human beings (most

especially a particularly loud section of elites in Africa) are. Secondly, it also shows that this

section of elites is ideologically confused and therefore does not know what it is always for and

against. Let me deal with each of these issues (gullibility and ideological confusion) in turn.

Some information from Tanzania suggests that Magufuli actually lost the election to Edward

Lowassa (which in Africa means he won with less votes than was officially declared). But

whatever the validity of this claim, it seems Magufuli came to office with limited legitimacy.

It is, therefore, imperative he adopts a lot of the oppositions arguments against CCMs

well-known corruption and incompetence. This way, Magufuli is a brilliant political tactician. He

has by a few strokes removed the rug from under the feet of the opposition. But this may also

mean he has legitimized the theft of the election. All of a sudden, everyone has forgotten the

election irregularities. Magufuli has out dribbled Lowassa whose claims of electoral theft have

been drowned in the euphoria of the radical reforms by the new president. But do these

actions constitute reform?

It should be obvious that Magufuli cannot bite the hand (corruption in CCM) that raised him to

and will ensure his survival in power. If I were President Yoweri Museveni, this is exactly what I

would have done in 2016 (or would do in 2021). There is Museveni fatigue in Uganda. So I

would leave power to a hand-picked successor. If he loses against the determined Kizza

Besigye, I steal the votes. Then I would ask him to do a Magufuli and sit back and watch

Ugandan (read African) elites praising the new president for his bold and radical reforms. I

would then watch a few who criticise the new president be drowned by popular condemnationson social media for not supporting the great reforms by their newly found hero.

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This brings me to the second point: the ideological confusion among this loud section of elites in

Africa. If you follow public debate on social media, most elites argue that, Africa has failed

because of the personalized ways in which our presidents conduct state business. I no longerthink Africa has failed. And I think where power is personalized; leaders are filling the gap of an

institutional vacuum. After a lot of reading and reflection, I am inclined to believe Africas

success defy imagination, a subject I will return to with data on another day. For now, let us look

at Magufulis reforms.

What Magufuli is doing may be good political stuntsmanship but it is not reform. He may be

setting the tone of his administration. But I think he is going about it the wrong way. He is likely

to fail to capitalize on the current public support to sustain the reform momentum. His actionsare highly personalized and arbitrary. If sustained they are likely to do more harm than good.

There is no indication that his reforms enjoy the support of his party, parliament or even the

opposition. Unless we are hoping for one-man reform as a model for success, it should be

obvious therefore that his reforms cannot last because they lack backing from the ruling party.

And if you have studied cases of successful reform, you would know that Tanzanias president

is either acting or ignorant of how to reform a bad system. Magufuli may be a smart political

stuntman but he is not a reformer. Reform cannot be so impulsive, ad hoc and an act of a loneranger. One can say that Magufuli is not conducting reform but merely setting the tone of his

new government. He may then proceed with his cabinet and CCM executives to define the

actual reforms. Unless top CCM executives agreed to his tone beforehand he is likely to

stimulate resistance.

In many ways Magufulis actions are not any different from the many pronouncements Museveni

made in 1986 to buy furniture from Kawempe, to rule for only four years, and to abandon the

presidential jet. And many coup makers in Africa have made them. None lasted a few years. Yetthere are reforms in Africa that have endured. And we can look at them to explain why.

The first generations of reforms were when NRM in Uganda decided to abandon its Marxist

ideas of state direction of the economy through price and foreign exchange controls, barter

trade, etc. in favour of policies aimed at creating a free market economy and controlling

inflation. There was a lot of internal debate inside NRM pitting leftists against rightists.

Eventually, after back and forth negotiations, Museveni weighed down heavily on the side of

free market reforms and Uganda has not looked back.

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The second generation of reforms was in post-genocide Rwanda. They were not about policy

but practice the kinds of things Magufuli is doing. They aimed to remove unnecessary

government spending on official cars, seminars and workshops, foreign trips etc. The RPFconducted internal discussions with other political parties and then took the decisions for debate

in the cabinet of the coalition government. Once adopted, President Paul Kagame led the way

by cutting down on his convoy and then obliging all others to follow suit. These reforms have

held in Rwanda because they were not arbitrary decisions of one self-righteous individual but

because they were debated and arrived at collectively.

The lesson is simple but fundamental. For reform to succeed there must be buy-in by key

stakeholders. Magufuli may be well meaning but he is going about this the wrong way. It ispossible he may stimulate resistance that will halt his otherwise good efforts.

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Behind Magufulis Political Stunts