Before Pinatubo

Gulf of Aqaba, Eilat, Israel photo from Amatzia Genin

Before Pinatubo1992

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/topo/pictures/

6000 miles

4 concepts

1980 1990 2000

0

100

200

300

Mea

n C

atch

/hec

tare

, Feb

-Oct

,

So

uth-

San

Pabl

o B

ays

1980 1990 2000

0

40

80

120

160

Mea

n C

atch

/hec

tare

, Feb

-Oct

,

S

outh

-San

Pab

lo B

ays

English Sole

Dungeness Crab

San Francisco Bay Monitoring Program Kathy Hieb, DFG

1980 1990 2000

0

100

200

300

Mea

n Cat

ch/h

ecta

re, F

eb-O

ct,

Sout

h-San

Pab

lo B

ays

1980 1990 2000

0

40

80

120

160

Mea

n Cat

ch/h

ecta

re, F

eb-O

ct,

Sou

th-S

an P

ablo B

ays

English Sole

Dungeness Crab

-200

2040

m3

s-1

100

km-1

-1

1

C

Upwelling IndexNOAA PFEL

SST FarallonsPRBO

El Niño La Niña

1 - Global processescascade down to the Bay-Delta Ecosystem

2 - The Bay-Delta Ecosystem is influenced by its connectivity to the Pacific Ocean and its watersheds

3 - Local processes propagate up

4 – Global and local processes change continuously

New conveyancesSubsidenceEarthquakeLevee breachesSan Luis DrainNew storageLandscape changesHabitat restorationReservoir operationsQuagga invasionFlow diversionsHerbicide applications

Climate change & sea level rise- heat waves- droughts- snow pack- seasonal hydrology- winter storms- altered wind patterns - migratory species

How can we integrate • global processes that cascade down• local processes that propagate up• connectivity across all the Delta’s boundaries• future changes at local to global scales

?

GlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

WatershedModel

ComputationalAssessments ofScenarios ofChange in theaDeltaEcosystem

DeltaModel

Air Temperature (+ wind, humidity, solar radiation)

Mike Dettinger

4 scenarios

GlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

GlobalClimateModels

Sea Level & Storm Surges

Dan Cayan

GFDL A2+ 0.9 m

Extremeevents

GlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

WatershedModel

Runoff, River Flow, Reservoir Storage, Delta Inflow

Noah Knowles

ReservoirInflow

DeltaInflow

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

10

15

20

25

30T m

ax [ο

C]

SJ Antioch

gfdl a2measured

Delta Water TemperatureGlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

Wayne Wagner, Mark Stacey

GlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

WatershedModel

Delta Model

Particle Trajectories & Residence Time

Nancy Monsen

Mick van der Wegen, Dave Schoellhamer, Neil Ganju, Bruce Jaffe, Dano Roelvink

GlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

WatershedModel

Sediment Inputs & Transport,Turbidity, Bathymetry

Ecological Changes in the 21st century

GlobalClimateModels

DownscaledTo Region

WatershedModel

Delta ModelPhytoplanktonLisa Lucas

Mercury & SeleniumRobin Stewart

Sam Luoma

FishLarry BrownBill BennetChrista Woodley

Invasive SpeciesJan ThompsonFrancis Parchaso

http://sfbay.wr.usgs.gov/cascade/