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BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:
Past Improvements andWhat Lies Ahead for the Regional Program
Robert L. BrownCalibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and Tools for
Assessing Our State and Local EconomiesReno, NevadaFebruary 2, 2007
2www.bea.gov
BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives
Accelerated estimates
New statistics
Other improvements
Future improvements
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Accelerations
Acceleration
Data release From To Timing
Quarterly state personal income 4 months 3 months Completed 2004
Total GDP by state 18 months 6 months Completed 2005
GDP-by-state industry detail 18 months 10 months Completed 2005County industry
detail16 months 12 months Completed 2005
Metro-area personal income 16 months 9 months Completed 2006
4www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Local Area Compensation
County estimates of compensation by industry, 1998 forward Sum of Wages and salaries and
supplements to wages Labor costs of production
First released in 2005 December release provides early
indicator of economic activity for counties
5www.bea.gov
New Statistics: More Local Area Data
Metro area disposable personal income Researching the estimation of personal
current taxes for metro areas Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI
Some results from the prototype estimates… Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current
taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes
1,082—7.4 % of personal income
6www.bea.gov
New Statistics: More Data on Tables
New tables—CA04 summary and CA06 Compensation
More Geography New Metropolitan area definitions—
including micropolitan areas
More detail on tables Since 1996 the amount of detail on tables
has doubled 1996—0.9 million lines per year 2006—2.0 million lines per year
7www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Longer Time Series
Annual state earnings industry data now back to 1990 on a NAICS basis Previously only 2001 forward
GDP by state now available for 1963 forward on SIC basis Previously 1977 forward
8www.bea.gov
New Statistics: Interarea Prices
Indexes that permit place to place comparisons correcting for price level differences
Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38 urban
areas Covers 87 percent of US population
CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require additional data
BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working Paper in 2005
Article in September 2006 Monthly Labor Review
9www.bea.gov
Other Improvements: Improved Preliminary State Wage Methodology
California 0.53Nevada 0.71Oregon 0.68Utah 0.82
Scaling factors for CES jobs for estimating wages
10www.bea.gov
Other Improvements: Outreach
Outreach to users of the statistics 6 Regional data users conferences
around the country in the past 15 months
7 RIMS training workshops for regional data users in the past 15 months
11www.bea.gov
Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One Location
Go To: BEA Home
Regional Articles Tool
Bar Regional
Working Papers and Presentations
12www.bea.gov
Future Improvements: More Accelerations of Releases
Personal income for metropolitan areas 8 months after end of calendar year
GDP by state and sector 6 months after end of calendar year
13www.bea.gov
Future Improvements: More Local Area Data
Gross metro product (GMP) Initial estimates—top-down approach:
Allocate state GDP by local area earnings data
Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor part of GMP Taxes and gross operating surplus Research using sub-state Census Bureau
data
14www.bea.gov
Future Improvements: Alternative Estimates of Regional Income
Develop alternative household income measures that better meet user needs to: Measure spending capacity Track tax base Research to be released this Spring
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US Pension Accounting, 2000
Personal income 8,429.7 - Net reclassifications 3.0 - Pension contributions 697.7 - Pension Fund Property Income 367.7 + Pension benefits 652.2Adjusted personal income 8,013.6
16www.bea.gov
Future Improvements: Personal Income Mapping
Interactive Web-based state and county personal income mapping Prototype this year
17www.bea.gov
Future Improvements: GDP by State
Carry GDP by state back to 1992 on a NAICS industry basis NAICS currently from 1997 Requires back-casting Census Bureau
data at Center for Economic Studies Develop alternative state GDP
methodology to estimate gross output and intermediate expenses
18www.bea.gov
Future Improvement: Regional Multipliers
Produce value-added multipliers In addition to gross output multipliers
currently produced Improve methods to “regionalize”
the national input-output accounts Research into capturing
interregional flows of goods and people
19www.bea.gov
Other Future Research: New Data Sources
The American Community Survey (ACS) and the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes for the decennial Census long-form
IRS information returns data by state Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
(MEPS) data for contributions to health insurance
20www.bea.gov
And Finally: Comprehensive Revision
Spring 2009—every 5 years Definitional revisions Statistical and methodological
revisions Presentational revisions