BCOAPO 1 008 01 Supply Side Energy Calls · study methodology, a summary of the residential and commercial base case results, an assessment of the capacity reduction measures that

BC hydroTony Morris

Acting Chief Regulatory OfficerPhone: (604) 623-4046Fax: (604) 623-4407

August 12 , 2005

Mr. Robert J. PellattCommission SecretaryBritish Columbia Utilities CommissionSixth Floor - 900 Howe StreetVancouver, BC V6Z 2N3

Dear Mr. Pellatt:

RE: Project No. 3698388British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro)Resource Expenditure and Acquisition Plan (REAP)Information Responses to Information Requests of -British Columbia Old Age Pensioners Organization (BCOAPO)BC Sustainable Energy Association (BCSEA)British Columbia Utilties Commission (BCUC)Cloudworks Energy Inc. (Cloudworks)Columbia Power Corporation (CPC)Independent Power Producers of British Columbia (IPPBC)Joint Industry Electricity Steering Committee (JIESC)

BC Hydro attaches the following:

Revised Responses to Exhibit B-

BCOAPO 1. 08.

BCUC 2. 80.0 (the appendices consist of over 600 pages of tables andinformation in support of the report and are available upon request)

BCSEA 1. 15. , 1.40. , 1.40. , 1.40.4 , 1.40. , 1.40. , 1.42. , 1.43. , 1.44.1.44. 1.46. 1.47. 1.49. 1.49. 1.49. 1.49.4 1.49. , 1.49. , 1.49.1.49. , 1.49. 9, 1.49. , 1.49. , 1.49. , 1.49. 13, 1.49. , 1.49. , 1.50.

50. , 1.51. , 1.51. , 1.51. , 1.52. , 1.52. , 1.52. , 1.52.4 , 1.52. , 1.52.52. , 1.52.

JIESC 1. 0 (d)JIESC 1.2.0 (e)

British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, 333 Dunsmuir Street, Vancouver BC V6B 5R3ww. bchydro. com

B-4A

CNSMITH

REAP

Responses to:

BCOAPO Round 2 , BCSEA Round 2 , BCUC Round 3 , Cloudworks Round 2CPC Round 1 , IPPBC Round 2 , JIESC Round 2

Yours sincerely,

Acting Chief Regulatory Officer

Enclosures (20)

c. Project 3698388 Intervenors

British Columbia Old Age Pensioners' Organization et al Information Request No. 1.8.1 Dated: May 9, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

Page 1

Revised Response issued August 12, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority 2005 Resource Expenditure and Acquisition Plan ("REAP")

8.0 Supply Side Energy Calls

Reference: BCH’s 2005 REAP – Chapter 2, pages 2-21 to 2-24 and Appendix F

1.8.1 Is the 200 GWh of energy to be acquired through the F2006 Call from small distribution-connected IPPs considered firm or non-firm energy for purposes of supply planning?

RESPONSE: The supply from the Small Projects stream is contractually non-firm. The 200 GWh/year from Small Projects is not currently counted as firm energy in BC Hydro’s supply/demand balance. BC Hydro recognises that as projects come into service and a history of deliveries is established - both firm and non-firm - BC Hydro may consider some, or all, of the average annual energy delivered from a project to be firm energy for the purpose of long term planning.

British Columbia Utilities Commission Information Request No. 2.80.0 Dated: May 9, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

Page 1


80.0 Reference: Exhibit B-2, Response to BCUC IR 1.8.0

2.80.0 Please file a copy of the report when it is complete.

RESPONSE: A copy of the “BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2004: Residential & Commercial Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Study” is provided on the attached CD-ROM.

Global Project Manager G. Wikler

Global Energy Partners, LLC • 3569 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200, Lafayette, CA 94549 Tel. 925-284-3780 • Fax 925-284-3147 • www.gepllc.com

BC HYDRO CONSERVATION POTENTIAL REVIEW 2004: RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL CAPACITY REDUCTION TECHNICAL POTENTIAL STUDY

Volume 1: Final Report June 2005

Global Energy Partners, LLC 3569 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200 Lafayette, CA 94549 USA

iii

CITATIONS

This report was prepared by

Global Energy Partners, LLC 3569 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200 Lafayette, CA 94549-3837 USA

Principal Investigators G. Wikler S. Yoshida C. Prijyanonda

The report is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner:

BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2004: Residential & Commercial Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Study, Global Energy Partners, LLC, Lafayette, CA: 2005.

ORDERING INFORMATION

Requests for copies of this report should be directed to Global Energy Partners, LLC 3569 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200, Lafayette, CA USA 94549. Telephone number: 925-284-3780; fax: 925-284-3147

Copyright © 2005 Global Energy Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.

.

v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

BC Hydro retained Global Energy Partners to conduct an assessment of the capacity savings potential for the BC Hydro service territory. The purpose of this assessment is to provide a comprehensive and thorough study to be used by program and system planners for their capacity planning requirements and for designing Power Smart programs and initiatives.

The overall goal of this assessment is to provide BC Hydro a comprehensive, realistic and composite picture of the capacity savings potential that can be obtained from viable capacity-oriented energy efficiency measures over the next 10 years for the residential and commercial markets. The level of detail in this assessment is a function of the available data. In most cases, data that are specific to BC Hydro were used to conduct the analysis, however for some activities, it was necessary to take a broader approach by using representative and applicable secondary data.

The assessment of capacity savings potential entailed the following three primary objectives:

1. Development of base case energy consumption and demand for a variety of market segments drawing upon a combination of data provided by BC Hydro, BC Hydro’s Conservation Potential Review (CPR) studies and high-quality secondary data sources. The base case establishes a baseline against which the impacts of potential capacity-oriented energy efficiency measures could be measured.

2. Identification of capacity reduction measures and technologies suitable to the residential and commercial sectors, a qualitative screening of those measures, and the development of technology performance and incremental costs for the measures that passed the qualitative screen.

3. Estimates of technical potential at an aggregate system level from bundles of capacity reduction measures applied to the market segments.

The sections that follow highlight the key elements of this study including an overview of the study methodology, a summary of the residential and commercial base case results, an assessment of the capacity reduction measures that were included, results of technical potential analysis, and insights about potential program design approaches that BC Hydro may consider for the future.

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Study Methodology

The overall methodology to this study is illustrated in Figure ES-1. The first activity in this study was to define the global set of residential and commercial building types that were relevant in BC Hydro’s service territory. For each residential and commercial market segment identified, a prototype model was developed to serve as a basis for modeling the unit energy usage and peak demand by end use for each building type. The results from the prototype modeling fed into the other activities of the study: the base case assessment, the qualitative screen, the measure characterization and the technical potential assessment as discussed below.

Figure ES-1 Study Methodology

The next activity was to develop a base case assessment for each segment (e.g., residential and commercial), each sub-segment (e.g., single family, multi-family, large offices, etc.) and each end-use (e.g., lighting heating, water heat, etc.). This assessment established a “baseline” against which the impacts of potential capacity-oriented energy efficiency measures could be compared and served as a reference to the technical potential estimates. In this base case assessment, the residential and commercial building prototype models described previously served as inputs into a model that was run for this study – the Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST) – which generated unit energy consumption and demand breakdowns at the end-use level for each residential and commercial segment. The base case was calibrated relative to BC Hydro’s most current load forecast. As such, the totals reflected in the base case are representative of BC Hydro’s projected future energy consumption and peak demand needs.

A parallel activity to the base case assessment was the measure identification portion of this study. This is where a universe of capacity reduction measures was identified as possible candidates for implementation in BC Hydro’s service territory. After a series of screens to “narrow” the list down to those measures that were most applicable and suitable given conditions

Potential

Base Case

Qualitative ScreenBEST

Measure Characteristics

Technical

Market Segment / Prototype Model

Potential

Base Case



Technical


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in British Columbia, each measure was characterized for typical savings, incremental cost and lifetime.

The last box in Figure ES-1 is “Technical Potential” which represents the maximum potential savings that are technically possible, without consideration to economics and customer preference. It represents total and continuous conversion to the most efficient capacity reduction technologies and processes and assumes that the best available equipment immediately replaces all installed equipment and processes in all markets. It is important to point out that the technical potential is a hypothetical upper-boundary that could never be achieved. This is due to the fact that neither economics nor consumer preferences have been considered in the analysis. While theoretical, technical potential estimates can be helpful for developing program plans and program designs.

Another important consideration about technical potential is that it represents a means unto an end. Typically, the next step beyond technical potential is to estimate economic potential. This represents the maximum potential that is technically possible, and falls within certain economic thresholds, such as avoided capacity costs. Economic potential is also a hypothetical upper-boundary that could never be achieved in practice. What typically follows is the next layer of potential analysis, which is referred to as achievable potential. This represents the maximum potential that is technically possible, meets the economic criteria, and addresses the criteria established to determine whether customers will accept the measures. Oftentimes, achievable potential represents the upper-boundary for estimated savings that a utility might experience through its demand-side management and capacity reduction programming efforts. This study only addresses the technical potential associated with capacity reduction measures. To arrive at economic and achievable potentials would require additional efforts.

Market Segments

The market segments that were selected for this study are summarized in Table ES-1. As can be seen, there were four segments for the residential sector and 20 segments for the commercial sector. These market segments were selected based on BC Hydro’s past CPR study efforts and its past experience with the Power Smart program.

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Table ES-1 Market Segments for the Assessment

Segment Number Segment Description

Residential Sector:

1 Single Family (detached, multi-plexes, row houses)

2 Multi Family Low-Rise (low rise apartments and condos – individual and master-metered accounts)

3 Multi Family High-Rise (high rise apartments and condos – individual and master-metered accounts)

4 Manufactured Housing

Commercial Sector: 5 Large Office

6 Medium Office

7 Large Retail 8 Medium Retail

9 Grocery

10 Large Hotel 11 Medium Hotel/Motel

12 Hospital

13 Nursing Home 14 Large School

15 Medium School

16 Universities and Colleges 17 Restaurants/Taverns

18 Warehouses/Wholesale

19 Small Commercial 20 Mixed Use/Miscellaneous Commercial

Base Case Results

The base case provides a breakdown of energy usage and peak demand for each sector by segment and end-use. The base case serves as the “baseline” against which energy efficiency and demand response measures and maximum achievable potential can be compared. Table ES-2 provides a summary of the base case energy and peak demand.

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Table ES-2 Base Case Energy and Peak Demand – by Sector

Figure ES-2 highlights the energy consumption and peak demand for the year 2016,1 as characterized in Table ES-2 above, according to the two market segments (residential and commercial) represented at the BC Hydro system level. Details for each of BC Hydro’s four regions can be found in the body of this report. Figure ES-3 shows how the base case forecast is represented over time (from FY2005 to FY2016), split between the residential and commercial sectors. As can be seen from this chart, the residential sector accounts for the majority of peak demand over time. This is due primarily to the space heating loads predominant during BC Hydro’s peak period in the winter.

Another view of the base case is a review of the end-use components for each market segment. Figure ES-4 summarizes the end-use energy and peak demand splits for the residential sector. As can be seen from the chart, plug loads appear to be the predominant end-use in terms of energy consumption, while space heating clearly accounts for a dominant share of the total peak demand, at the BC Hydro system level. Figure ES-5 summarizes the end-use energy and peak demand splits for the commercial sector. Here, the major end-uses in terms of energy consumption are lighting and plug loads. The same breakouts hold true from the perspective of peak demand.

1 Note that timeframes in this study are referenced according to BC Hydro’s fiscal year (FY) cycle, which occurs from April 1st until March 31st of the following year. The three timeframes for this study were FY2005, FY2011 and FY2016.

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016 FY2005 FY2016BCH SYSTEMResidential 15,695 17,653 19,329 46% 47%Commercial 18,309 19,934 21,549 54% 53%TOTAL 34,004 37,587 40,878 100% 100%

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016 FY2005 FY2016

Residential 4,304 4,741 5,116 61% 61%Commercial 2,725 2,998 3,233 39% 39%TOTAL 7,029 7,739 8,349 100% 100%

BCH SYSTEM

Energy (GWh) % of Total

Peak Demand (MW) % of Total

x

Figure ES-2: Base Case – FY2016 Energy Consumption and Peak Demand by Market Segment

Figure ES-3: Base Case – Forecast of Energy Consumption and Peak Demand by Market Segment

Peak Demand

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016

MW

Annual Energy Consumption

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016

GW

h Commercial

Residential

Annual Energy ConsumptionFY2016 = 40,878 GWh

46%

54%

Residential

Commercial

Peak DemandFY2016 = 8,348 MW

61%

39%

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Figure ES-4: Base Case – Energy Consumption and Peak Demand by End-Use, Residential Sector

Figure ES-5: Base Case – Energy Consumption and Peak Demand by End-Use, Commercial Sector

Capacity Reduction Measures

A comprehensive list of 210 capacity reduction measures (104 in the residential sector and 106 in the commercial sector were evaluated through a series of qualitative and economic screens. Of the original 210 measures, approximately 55, or 26% are included in the technical potential analysis. Table ES-3 summarizes the results of the screening analyses by sector.

Table ES-3 Summary of Capacity Reduction Measures Analyzed

Peak Demand (kW)

16%

25%

51%

0%

7% 1%

Annual Energy Consumption (kWh)

20%

40%

24%

1%

11%4% Lighting

Plug Loads

Space Heat

Cooling

Water Heat

Exterior/Misc

Peak Demand (kW)

66%

20%

3%

1% 6% 2%

1%

1%

Annual Energy Consumption (kWh)

55%

20%

3%

7%

2%

10%2%

1%

Lighting

Plug Loads

Space Heat

Cooling

AuxiliaryVentilation

RefrigerationWater Heating

Sector Number of Initial Measures

Number of Measures After

Screens

Percent of Total

Residential 104 26 25%Commercial 106 29 27%Total 210 55 26%

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This wide-ranging variety of capacity reduction measures and technologies is listed and described in Appendix J of this report. The types of measures that were included in this assessment addressed a wide-variety of markets and end-uses with some of the key capacity reduction measures represented in the list below.

Residential Measures: High efficiency air conditioners High efficiency gas furnaces High efficiency water heaters

(electric and gas) Tankless water heater (elec. & gas) AC and water cycling devices Home energy management systems

Commercial Measures: High efficiency air conditioners Lighting automatic control systems Energy management control

systems Direct load control of end-use

systems Real-time and time-of-use meters

There were three types of capacity reduction measures – those that are purely intended for capacity reduction purposes (e.g., savings only realized when the capacity reductions are needed), those that are fuel switching (thus permanently replacing the electric equipment), and those that are energy efficiency in nature (in that they provide capacity reductions on a permanent basis). Each of these measure types is included in the list of measures noted in Table ES-3.

Technical Potential Results

The technical potential analysis identified the end uses and market segments that have the potential to provide significant savings opportunities in each of the two sectors. The broadest definition of technical potential assumes the total, instantaneous, and continuous conversion of all equipment to the technologies that provide maximum peak demand reduction in all market segments irrespective of the cost or age of existing equipment. For capacity reduction measures, the technical potential would equal a large portion of BC Hydro’s peak demand since, given enough cycling devices and load shifting technologies, the majority of electrical equipment in the BC Hydro service territory could be shutdown, disconnected, or shifted at the time of system peak. While such an assessment cannot be realistic, it is intended to serve as a hypothetical upper-boundary for the purposes of long-range forecasting and program planning. These capacity reduction technical potential results should not be considered as viable targets for BC Hydro to implement in its Power Smart programs. More work is needed to identify the economic and market barriers associated with these capacity reduction measures and initiatives.

Table ES-4 summarizes the results of the technical potential analysis for capacity reduction measures in BC Hydro’s service area.2 Figure ES-6 shows the projected energy and peak demand savings for the years in the planning horizon (FY2005, FY2011 and FY2016) from the capacity reduction measures, allocated according to the residential and commercial market segments. The figure indicates the magnitude of savings for each segment relative to the base case. As can be seen from the figure, roughly a quarter of the base case consumption can be technically reduced through capacity reduction measures. Nearly half of the BC Hydro system peak demand can be technically reduced through these measures.

2 Note that estimates of capacity reduction technical potential for each of BC Hydro’s four regions are available in the main report and the associated appendices.

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Table ES-4 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Savings – by Market Segment

Figure ES-6: Capacity Reduction Technical Potential – Share of Total Usage Relative to Base Case Peak Demand and Energy Consumption

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016

Energy (GWH) Base Case 34,004 37,587 40,878 Technical Potential Savings

Residential Technical Potential 5,466 5,655 5,818Commercial Technial Potential 2,648 2,818 3,986 Total Technical Potential 8,114 8,473 9,804

Percent-TP of Base Case 23.9% 22.5% 24.0%

Peak Demand (MW) (System-Level) Base Case 7,029 7,739 8,349 Technical Potential Savings

Residential Technical Potential 2,339 2,399 2,451Commercial Technial Potential 652 704 748 Total Technical Potential 2,991 3,103 3,199

Percent-TP of Base Case 42.6% 40.1% 38.3%

Total

Peak Demand

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016

MW

Annual Energy Consumption

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016

GW

h

Base Case

CommercialTechnial PotentialResidentialTechnical Potential

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Another important perspective of the technical potential is to understand how that potential is allocated among the types of residences and businesses (e.g., single family homes, office buildings, etc.) as well as the end-uses (e.g., lights, heaters, air conditioners, etc.) assessed over the course of this study. Table ES-5 summarizes the technical potential by residential market segment (e.g., dwelling type) while Figure ES-7 graphically depicts that result. Table ES-6 summarizes the technical potential by residential end use while Figure ES-8 graphically depicts that result. Both figures were derived from technical potential results generated for FY2016. As can be seen, the vast majority of savings potential comes from the space heating end-use. This is the result of fuel switching measures, which from a technical standpoint, offers the maximum possible capacity reduction savings potential to the BC Hydro system.

Table ES-5 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Savings – Residential Sector by Dwelling Type

Figure ES-7: Capacity Reduction Technical Potential – Breakdown of Energy and Peak Demand Savings by Dwelling Type, Residential Sector (based on FY2005)

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016 FY2005 FY2016Energy (GWH)Single Family 4127 4267 4388 76% 75%MF Low Rise 532 552 569 10% 10%MF High Rise 278 292 303 5% 5%Mfg Housing 528 544 558 10% 10%Total 5,465 5,655 5,818 100% 100%

Peak Demand (MW)Single Family 1699 1743 1781 73% 73%MF Low Rise 296 302 308 13% 13%MF High Rise 163 169 174 7% 7%Mfg Housing 181 185 188 8% 8%Total 2,339 2,399 2,451 100% 100%

Technical Potential % of Total

Peak Demand Savings (kW)

72%

13%

7%8%

Annual Energy Savings (kWh)

75%

10%

5%10%

Single Family

MF Low Rise

MF High Rise

Mfg Housing

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Table ES-6 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Savings – Residential Sector by End-Use

Figure ES-8: Capacity Reduction Technical Potential – Breakdown of Energy and Peak Demand Savings by End-Use, Residential Sector (based on FY2005)

Tables ES-7 and 8 summarize the technical potential for the commercial sector, by selected market segment (Table ES-7) and by end-use (Table ES-8); Figures ES-9 and 10 graphically depict these results. As can be seen, the majority of potential lies in the lighting end-use. This is the result of lighting control systems and automation applied to large and small buildings. Another important observation is that there exists a large potential within the small commercial sub-segment.


2% 11%

75%

0%

11%1%

Annual Energy Savings (kWh)3%

12%

55%

1%

25%

4% Lighting

Plug Loads

Space Heat

Cooling

Water Heat

Exterior/Misc

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016 FY2005 FY2016Energy (GWH)Lighting 190 216 239 3% 4%Plug Loads 643 718 781 12% 13%Space Heat 2,968 2,968 2,968 54% 51%Cooling 67 73 77 1% 1%Water Heat 1,356 1,409 1,456 25% 25%Exterior/Misc 243 272 298 4% 5%Total 5,465 5,655 5,818 100% 100%

Peak Demand (MW)Lighting 50 56 60 2% 2%Plug Loads 258 282 302 11% 12%Space Heat 1,761 1,761 1,761 75% 72%Cooling 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heat 252 280 305 11% 12%Exterior/Misc 18 21 23 1% 1%Total 2,339 2,399 2,451 100% 100%

Technical Potential % of Total

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Table ES-7 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Savings – Commercial Sector by Market Segment

Figure ES-9: Capacity Reduction Technical Potential – Breakdown of Energy and Peak Demand Savings by Market Segment, Commercial Sector (based on FY2005)


14%3%

2%

24%

5%

40%

12%


13%

7%

2%

15%

8%31%

24%

Offices

Retail

Grocery

Colllege/School

Other Building Types

Small Commercial

Misc. Commercial

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016 FY2005 FY2016Energy (GWH)Offices 347 370 388 13% 13%Retail 198 219 236 7% 8%Grocery 45 46 46 2% 2%Colllege/School 391 402 412 15% 14%Other Building Types 202 214 227 8% 8%Small Commercial 830 892 956 31% 32%Misc. Commercial 635 675 721 24% 24%Total 2,648 2,818 2,986 100% 100%

Peak Demand (MW)Offices 89 97 103 14% 14%Retail 20 23 25 3% 3%Grocery 11 12 13 2% 2%Colllege/School 156 167 176 24% 24%Other Building Types 36 39 41 5% 5%Small Commercial 261 279 295 40% 39%Misc. Commercial 79 87 95 12% 13%Total 652 704 748 100% 100%

Total % of Total

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Table ES-8 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Savings – Commercial Sector by End-Use

Figure ES-10: Capacity Reduction Technical Potential – Breakdown of Energy and Peak Demand Savings by End-Use, Commercial Sector (based on FY2005)


65%

25%

7%0%0%0%0% 3%


72%

0%

13%

10%0%0%0%5% Lighting

Plug Loads

Space Heat

Cooling

Auxiliary

Ventilation

Refrigeration

Water Heating

FY2005 FY2011 FY2016 FY2005 FY2016Energy (GWH)Lighting 1,911 2,062 2,210 72% 74%Plug Loads 0 0 0 0% 0%Space Heat 346 346 346 13% 12%Cooling 254 275 294 10% 10%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 137 137 137 5% 5%Total 2,648 2,820 2,987 100% 100%

Peak Demand (MW)Lighting 421 455 484 65% 65%Plug Loads 165 180 193 25% 26%Space Heat 45 45 45 7% 6%Cooling 0 0 0 0% 0%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 21 24 26 3% 3%Total 652 704 748 100% 100%

Total % of Total

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The following observations and insights are offered regarding the capacity reduction technical potential results:

A significant technical potential exists for capacity reduction measures in the BC Hydro service area. In particular, there is a technical potential for an almost 50% reduction in the BC Hydro system peak demand for the residential and commercial sectors and nearly a 25% reduction in energy consumption.

The technical potential results must be interpreted as a hypothetical upper-boundary for savings. More work is needed to assess the economic and market implications of capacity reduction programs targeted to residential and commercial customers in the BC Hydro service area.

The bulk of impacts for the residential sector are from fuel switching measures. This is due to the fact that these measures tend to provide the greatest savings potential. However, implementation of fuel switching programs requires further detailed assessment to understand the economic and market implications associated with such initiatives.

The bulk of impacts for the commercial sector are from load control devices, particularly applied to lighting and space conditioning end-uses. These measures are represented by advanced control systems that automatically turn off or turn down lighting panels and thermostats during times of system constraint. When these constraints have passed, the settings are returned to their normal operating positions.

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Capacity Reduction Supply Curve Assessment

Capacity reduction supply curves were generated in order to highlight the relationship between the capacity reduction technical potential and the cost associated with achieving that potential. Figure ES-11 provides the supply curve for all energy efficiency measures. As can be seen from the curve, a significant portion (nearly two-thirds) of the aggregate technical potential falls below a lifecycle cost of $150 per kW.

The representative measures that fall below the $150 per kW lifecycle cost threshold include:

Residential: • Space heating • Lighting • Exterior lighting

Commercial: • Space heating • Cooling • Water heating

As measures become more expensive (e.g., greater than $150 per kW) less additional technical potential is available, as illustrated by the sharp rise in the supply curve in Figure ES-11.

Figure ES-11: Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Supply Curve

BC Hydro Capacity Reduction PotentialMaximum Potential -- Residential & Commercial Sectors

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Reduction Potential - MW

Mea

sure

Cos

t $/k

W S

aved

(L

evel

ized

in 2

005

Dol

lars

)

FY2011FY2016

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Program Design Recommendations

Based on the results of this study, a number of capacity reduction program options should be considered by BC Hydro for further review and assessment. Following is a listing of the types of capacity reduction programs that may warrant further review by BC Hydro, according to the three capacity reduction measure types listed earlier:

Measure Type 1: Capacity Reduction

Automated Direct Load Control Programs: These programs are technology based initiatives that provide customers with incentives to install state-of-the art energy management control systems and/or advanced equipment controls that will allow dual (e.g., customer and utility) control of those loads to meet certain requirements. In the customer’s case, the requirements would be energy cost optimization. In the utility’s case, the requirements are peak load reduction during a few hours of the year. For these programs to be most feasible and cost-effective, two-way control must be an enabling feature. These programs are very feasible and well-understood by all customer types, including those that were addressed in this study (e.g., residential and commercial). Advanced metering (e.g., interval meters), although helpful for measurement and verification purposes, is not a mandatory requirement for this type of program.

Critical Peak and Real-Time Pricing Programs: These programs use price signals to bring about measurable reductions in demands during periods of critical capacity. Typically, the customer who signs up for this type of program would already have the capability to shift and/or eliminate their loads to meet the capacity reductions required to bring about a reduction in their energy costs. Thus, these programs are most conducive for large commercial and industrial customer types. Advanced metering is necessary for billing and load reduction verification purposes.

Interruptible Tariffs: These are special contracts that are negotiated with large commercial and industrial customers who agree to shed a portion of their loads when called upon by the utility during time periods when electrical system demands are anticipated to be higher than available supplies. Advanced metering is necessary for billing and load reduction verification purposes.

Measure Type 2: Fuel Switching Programs

Equipment Retrofit Programs: These programs, much like the current BC Hydro Power Smart delivery format, promote the replacement of existing inefficient electric heating and water heating equipment with high efficiency gas furnaces and water heaters and solar water heaters. Advanced metering, although helpful for measurement and verification purposes, is not a mandatory requirement for this type of program.

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Measure Type 3: Conservation Programs

Equipment Retrofit and Replacement Programs: These programs would be a complement to the current BC Hydro Power Smart delivery format. Many of the measures identified in this study as additional measures over and above what was identified in the CPR 2002 study would be promoted through existing Power Smart programs. Advanced metering, although helpful for measurement and verification purposes, is not a mandatory requirement for this type of program.

xxiii

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................1-1

1.1 Background .....................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Objectives .......................................................................................................................1-1 1.3 Report Organization ........................................................................................................1-1

2 STUDY METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................2-1

2.1 Overall Approach.............................................................................................................2-1

3 SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS ...........................................................................................3-1

3.1 Segment Selection Process ............................................................................................3-1 3.2 Prototype Model Development ........................................................................................3-2

3.2.1 BEST Model Development ......................................................................................3-4 3.2.2 Weather Data ..........................................................................................................3-5 3.2.3 Incorporation of the Energy Codes and Standards .................................................3-5 3.2.4 Prototype Model Description ...................................................................................3-6

Residential Sector........................................................................................................3-6 Single-Family House ...............................................................................................3-7 Multi-Family Residence...........................................................................................3-7 Manufactured Housing ............................................................................................3-7

Commercial Sector ......................................................................................................3-8 Large Office and Medium Office .............................................................................3-8 Large Retail and Medium Retail..............................................................................3-9 Grocery Store........................................................................................................3-10 Large Hotel and Medium Hotel .............................................................................3-11 Hospital .................................................................................................................3-12 Nursing Home .......................................................................................................3-12 Large School, Medium School and College ..........................................................3-12 Restaurant.............................................................................................................3-13 Warehouse............................................................................................................3-14 Small Retail ...........................................................................................................3-14

xxiv

4 BASE CASE ......................................................................................................................4-1

4.1 Base Case Analysis Approach........................................................................................4-1 4.1.1 Control Totals for Base Case ..................................................................................4-1 4.1.2 End Use Modeling Approach...................................................................................4-2

4.2 End Use Unit-Level Results ............................................................................................4-4 4.3 Saturation-Weighted End Use Unit-Level Results.........................................................4-11 4.4 Aggregated Base Case Results ....................................................................................4-20 4.5 Residential Sector .........................................................................................................4-22 4.6 Commercial Sector........................................................................................................4-24

5 CAPACITY REDUCTION MEASURES .............................................................................5-1

5.1 Capacity Reduction Measure Selection Process ............................................................5-2 5.2 Universal List of Capacity Reduction Measures..............................................................5-2 5.3 Capacity Reduction Measures Screen............................................................................5-2

5.3.1 Applicability Screen of CRMs ..................................................................................5-2 5.3.2 Qualitative Screen of CRMs ....................................................................................5-3 5.3.3 Passing the Applicability and Qualitative Screens...................................................5-4 5.3.4 CRM Screen Results ...............................................................................................5-4

5.4 CRM Characteristics .......................................................................................................5-5

6 TECHNICAL POTENTIAL .................................................................................................6-1

6.1 Technical Potential Approach..........................................................................................6-1 6.1.1 End Use Modeling Approach...................................................................................6-2 6.1.2 End Use Unit-Level Results.....................................................................................6-8 6.1.3 Saturation-Weighted End Use Unit-Level Results.................................................6-14

6.2 Aggregated Technical Potential Results .......................................................................6-20 6.2.1 Capacity Reduction Supply Curve Assessment ...............................................6-22

6.3 Residential Sector .........................................................................................................6-23 6.3.1 Residential Supply Curve Analysis........................................................................6-30

6.4 Commercial Sector........................................................................................................6-31 6.4.1 Commercial Supply Curve Analysis ......................................................................6-35

7 PROGRAM DESIGN ASSESSMENT ................................................................................7-1

7.1 Overview .........................................................................................................................7-1 7.2 Technical Potential in Context.........................................................................................7-1

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7.2.1 Alternate Scenario without Fuel Switching Measures .............................................7-3 7.3 Regulatory and Market Environments for Capacity Reduction Initiatives in the US........7-4

7.3.1 Retail Market Trends in Fully Regulated US States ................................................7-6 7.3.2 Retail Market Trends in California: A Deregulated/Reregulated Market..................7-6 7.3.3 BPA Capacity Reduction Efforts..............................................................................7-7 7.3.4 California Pricing Pilots............................................................................................7-8

7.4 Feasible Program Types .................................................................................................7-9 7.5 Next Step Recommendations........................................................................................7-10

APPENDICES*

A. LIST OF REFERENCES B. PROTOTYPE CHARACTERISTICS C. BEST MODEL DOCUMENTATION D. UNIT-LEVEL AND SATURATION-WEIGHTED UNIT-LEVEL BASE CASE RESULTS –

REGIONAL LEVEL E. UNIT-LEVEL AND SATURATION-WEIGHTED UNIT-LEVEL BASE CASE RESULTS –

SYSTEM LEVEL F. AGGREGATE BASE CASE RESULTS – REGIONAL LEVEL G. AGGREGATE BASE CASE RESULTS – SYSTEM LEVEL H. UNIVERSAL LIST OF MEASURES I. QUALITATIVE SCREENS J. MEASURE DESCRIPTIONS K. RESIDENTIAL MEASURE CHARACTERIZATIONS L. COMMERCIAL MEASURE CHARACTERIZATIONS M. UNIT-LEVEL AND SATURATION-WEIGHTED UNIT-LEVELTECHNICAL POTENTIAL

RESULTS – REGIONAL LEVEL N. UNIT-LEVEL AND SATURATION-WEIGHTED UNIT-LEVEL TECHNICAL POTENTIAL

RESULTS – SYSTEM LEVEL O. AGGREGATE TECHNICAL POTENTIAL RESULTS – REGIONAL LEVEL P. AGGREGATE TECHNICAL POTENTIAL RESULTS – SYSTEM LEVEL

* Note that due to the large volume of pages, the appendices have not been included in this document however they are available upon request to BC Hydro.

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1 Overall Methodology.................................................................................................2-1 Figure 4-1 Approach for Base Case Development ....................................................................4-3 Figure 5-1 Approach for Capacity Reduction Measure Characterization...................................5-1

Figure 6-1 Methodology for Estimating Capacity Reduction Technical Potential.......................6-1

Figure 6-2 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Supply Curve – Residential Sector .........6-26

Figure 6-3 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Supply Curve – Commercial Sector ........6-31

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 3-1 Market Segments.......................................................................................................3-1 Table 3-2 Segment Vintage Definitions .....................................................................................3-2 Table 3-3 TMY Data Used in Modeling Buildings Located in BC Hydro’s Service

Territories ...........................................................................................................................3-5 Table 4-1 Control Total Numbers – Lower Mainland .................................................................4-1 Table 4-2 Residential End-Uses ................................................................................................4-4 Table 4-3 Commercial End-Uses...............................................................................................4-4 Table 4-4 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower

Mainland.............................................................................................................................4-5 Table 4-5 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Vancouver Island ...............................................................................................................4-6 Table 4-6 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Southern

Interior ................................................................................................................................4-6 Table 4-7 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Northern

Region................................................................................................................................4-6 Table 4-8 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower

Mainland.............................................................................................................................4-7 Table 4-9 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Vancouver Island ...............................................................................................................4-8 Table 4-10 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Southern Interior ................................................................................................................4-9 Table 4-11 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Northern Region...............................................................................................................4-10 Table 4-12 Regional and System Peak-Coincident Dates and Times ....................................4-11 Table 4-13 Residential Saturations..........................................................................................4-12 Table 4-14 Commercial Saturations ........................................................................................4-13 Table 4-15 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand

– Lower Mainland............................................................................................................4-15 Table 4-16 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand

– Vancouver Island .........................................................................................................4-15 Table 4-17 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand

– Southern Interior ..........................................................................................................4-15 Table 4-18 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand

– Northern Region...........................................................................................................4-15

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Table 4-19 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower Mainland ..............................................................................................4-16

Table 4-20 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Vancouver Island............................................................................................4-17

Table 4-21 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Southern Interior.............................................................................................4-18

Table 4-22 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Northern Region .............................................................................................4-19

Table 4-23 Base Case Energy and Peak Demand ..................................................................4-20 Table 4-24 Base Case by Rate Class......................................................................................4-21 Table 4-25 Base Case Energy and Demand by Dwelling Type– Residential Sector...............4-22 Table 4-26 Base Case Energy and Demand by End Use – Residential Sector ......................4-23 Table 4-27 Base Case Energy and Demand by Building Type– Commercial Sector ..............4-24 Table 4-28 Base Case Energy and Demand by End Use – Commercial Sector .....................4-26 Table 5-1 Number of CRMs in the Universal List.......................................................................5-2 Table 5-2 Number of CRMs Passing the Applicability and Qualitative Screen..........................5-5 Table 5-3 Potential Savings of CRMs – Residential Measures .................................................5-7 Table 5-4 Potential Savings of CRMs – Commercial Measures ................................................5-8 Table 6-1 Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle – Residential Building

Types ................................................................................................................................6-3 Table 6-2 Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle – Commercial Building

Types ................................................................................................................................6-4 Table 6-3 Applicability Factors of Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle –

Residential Building Types ................................................................................................6-6 Table 6-4 Applicability Factors of Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle –

Commercial Building Types ..............................................................................................6-7 Table 6-5 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Lower Mainland ..............................................................................6-8 Table 6-6 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Vancouver Island ............................................................................6-8 Table 6-7 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Southern Interior .............................................................................6-9 Table 6-8 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Northern Region .............................................................................6-9 Table 6-9 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Lower Mainland .............................................................................6-10 Table 6-10 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Vancouver Island ...........................................................................6-11 Table 6-11 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Southern Interior ............................................................................6-12 Table 6-12 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand –

Technical Potential – Northern Region ............................................................................6-13

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Table 6-13 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Lower Mainland ..........................................................................6-14

Table 6-14 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Vancouver Island ........................................................................6-14

Table 6-15 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Southern Interior .........................................................................6-15

Table 6-16 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Northern Region .........................................................................6-15

Table 6-17 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Lower Mainland............................................................6-16

Table 6-18 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Vancouver Island .........................................................6-17

Table 6-19 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Southern Interior ..........................................................6-18

Table 6-20 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Northern Region...........................................................6-19

Table 6-21 Total Energy and Peak Demand Savings.............................................................6-20 Table 6-22 Technical Potential Savings by Sector ..................................................................6-21 Table 6-23 Technical Potential Savings by Rate Class ...........................................................6-21 Table 6-24 Energy and Demand Potential Savings – Residential Sector................................6-23 Table 6-25 Technical Potential Savings by Dwelling Type – Residential Sector ....................6-24 Table 6-26 Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Residential Sector..............................6-25

Table 6-26a Technical Potential Savings by End Use--Residential Sector: Lower Mainland ..................................................................................................................................6-26

Table 6-26b Technical Potential Savings by End Use--Residential Sector: Vancouver Island .......................................................................................................................................6-27

Table 6-26c Technical Potential Savings by End Use-Residential Sector: Southern Interior......................................................................................................................................6-28

Table 6-26d Technical Potential Savings by End Use--Residential Sector: Northern Region......................................................................................................................................6-29

Table 6-27 Energy and Demand Potential Savings – Commercial Sector ..............................6-31 Table 6-28 Technical Potential Savings by Building Type – Commercial Sector ...................6-32 Table 6-29 Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Commercial Sector ...........................6-34

Table 7-1 Technical Potential by End-Use and Measure Type..................................................7-3

Table 7-2 Technical Potential by Measure Type........................................................................7-3

Table 7-3 Technical Potential by End-Use and Measure Type -- Alternate Scenario with No Fuel Switching Measures...................................................................................................................7-4

.

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1-1

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

BC Hydro retained Global Energy Partners to conduct an assessment of the capacity savings potential for the BC Hydro service territory. The purpose of this assessment is to provide a comprehensive and thorough study to be used by program and system planners for their capacity planning requirements and for designing Power Smart programs and initiatives.

1.2 Objectives

The overall goal of this assessment is to provide BC Hydro a comprehensive, realistic and composite picture of the capacity savings potential that can be obtained from viable capacity-oriented energy efficiency measures over the next 10 years. The level of detail in this assessment is a function of data availability and practicality for the study scope. In most cases, we used utility-specific data in our analysis, but for some activities, we took a broader approach by using representative and applicable secondary data.

The assessment of capacity savings potential entails the following three primary objectives:

1. Development of base case energy consumption and demand for a variety of market segments drawing upon a combination of data provided by BC Hydro, BC Hydro’s Conservation Potential Review (CPR) studies and high-quality secondary data sources. The base case establishes a baseline against which the impacts of potential capacity-oriented energy efficiency measures could be measured.

2. Identification of capacity reduction technologies, qualitative screening of the technologies, and development of technology performance and incremental costs for those measures that pass the qualitative screen.

3. Estimates of technical potential at an aggregate system level from bundles of capacity reduction measures applied to the market segments.

1.3 Report Organization

This report provides the results of the tasks related to the above objectives as undertaken by the Global Energy Partners consulting team on behalf of BC Hydro. Below, by chapter, are the descriptions of the contents of this report.

• Chapter 1, “Introduction,” is this introduction to the report.

Introduction

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• Chapter 2, “Study Methodology,” describes the overall approach and steps taken for this assessment.

• Chapter 3, “Prototype Development,” describes the residential and commercial building types and details the development of the prototype models that are used in the study.

• Chapter 4, “Base Case,” describes the development of the base case and provides the base case outputs for the residential and commercial sectors for three representative years (FY 2005, FY 2011, and FY 2016).

• Chapter 5, “Capacity Reduction Measures,” describes the process employed by the study team to identify and screen capacity reduction measures. This involves first identifying a universal list of measures; then narrowing that list down through a series of applicability and qualitative screens; and finally, determining the savings, costs, and lifetimes of those measures that passed the screens.

• Chapter 6, “Technical Potential,” describes the approach taken to develop the technical potential for capacity reduction and provides the summary results of the technical potential analysis.

• Chapter 7, “Program Design Assessment,” describes the market potential and program design implications for BC Hydro based on the technical potential results estimated in this study.

A number of technical appendices are included in this assessment:

• Appendix A provides a list of references that we used in this assessment.

• Appendix B defines the prototype characteristics (i.e. type of HVAC equipment, floor area, insulation) for each building type and vintage.

• Appendix C contains the documentation for the BEST model, which was used to develop the building prototypes.

• Appendix D contains the unit-level and saturation-weighted unit-level energy consumption and peak demand base cases at the regional level.

• Appendix E contains the unit-level and saturation-weighted unit-level energy consumption and peak demand base cases at the system level.

• Appendices F and G contain the residential and commercial base cases at the regional level and the system level, respectively.

• Appendices H-L provide the results of the capacity reduction measure assessment. The universal list of measures are located in Appendix H and the qualitative screens are located in Appendix I. Appendix J provides the narrative descriptions for each of the passing measures. Appendices K and L provide the measure characteristics for the residential and commercial sectors, respectively.

• Appendix M contains the unit-level and saturation-weighted unit-level technical potential at the regional level.

• Appendix N contains the unit-level and saturation-weighted unit-level technical potential at the system level.

• Appendices O and P contain the residential and commercial technical potential estimates for capacity reduction at the regional level and the system level, respectively.

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2 STUDY METHODOLOGY

2.1 Overall Approach

The overall methodology to this study is illustrated in Figure 2-1. It is important to note that this study is intended to complement work efforts already completed by BC Hydro to characterize the technical potential of energy efficiency measures. This effort represents estimates that are over and above estimates already developed by BC Hydro, as reflected from the previous CPR study (done in 2002) and future Power Smart program savings projections. The first activity in this study was to define the global set of building types that are relevant in BC Hydro’s service territory. For each residential and commercial segment identified, a prototype model was developed to serve as a basis for modeling the unit energy usage and peak demand by end use for each building type.3 The results from the prototype modeling feed into the other activities in the study: the base case assessment, the qualitative screen, the measure characterization and the technical potential assessment as discussed below.

Figure 2-1 Overall Methodology

3 The prototype models were created using data found in the BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2002 as well as various other resources, including Global’s previous work on building energy modeling in the Pacific Northwest region. See Section 3.2.4 for a more detailed discussion of the prototype models.

Potential

Base Case



Technical


Potential

Base Case



Technical


Study Methodology

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The next activity was to develop a base case assessment by segment and end use for each sector. This assessment established a “baseline” against which the impacts of potential capacity-oriented energy efficiency measures could be compared and served as a reference to the technical potential estimates. A base case represents the characteristics of the current and future building stock, going forward. In this base case assessment, the residential and commercial building prototype models described previously served as inputs into Global’s Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST), which generated unit energy consumption and demand breakdowns at the end-use level for each residential and commercial segment.4

A parallel activity to the base case assessment is the measure identification portion of this study. This is where a universe of capacity reduction measures was identified as possible candidates for implementation in BC Hydro’s service territory. After a series of screens to “narrow” the list down to those measures that were most applicable and suitable given conditions in British Columbia, each measure was characterized for typical savings, incremental cost and lifetime.

Global’s Database of Energy Efficiency Measures (“DEEM”) is a tool developed for the Electric Power Research Institute (“EPRI”) as part of an ongoing R&D program managed by Global. The DEEM tool provided the framework from which to build and develop a capacity reduction measure database. DEEM contains comprehensive information on an extensive number of energy efficiency measures and state-of-the-art technologies for a variety of building types within the residential and commercial sectors. DEEM contains data on over 250 prototypes that represent fifteen geographical regions throughout the United States across thirty-two unique building types.

The DEEM database tables for the Pacific Northwest geographical region were tailored to reflect BC Hydro’s mix of building or segment types within each of the sectors. The database tables were expanded to include additional measures applicable to BC Hydro’s service territories.

The last box in Figure 2-1 is the “Technical Potential Assessment” which represents the maximum potential savings that are technically possible, without consideration to economics and customer preference. It represents total and continuous conversion to the most efficient capacity reduction technologies and processes and assumes that the best available equipment immediately replaces all installed equipment and processes in all markets.

It is important to point out that technical potential represents a means unto an end. Typically, the next step beyond technical potential is to estimate economic potential. This represents the maximum potential that is technically possible, and falls within certain economic thresholds, such as avoided capacity costs. Economic potential is also a hypothetical upper-boundary that could never be achieved in practice. What typically follows is the next layer of potential analysis, which is referred to as achievable potential. This represents the maximum potential that is technically possible, meets the economic criteria, and addresses the criteria established to determine whether customers will accept the measures. Oftentimes, achievable potential represents the upper-boundary for estimated savings that a utility might experience through its demand-side management and capacity reduction programming efforts. This study only

4 See Section 3.2.1 for a discussion of BEST.

Study Methodology

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addresses the technical potential associated with capacity reduction measures. To arrive at economic and achievable potentials would require additional efforts.

A number of utility reports and industry publications served as references for this assessment. Appendix A contains a list of references that were used in this study.

Study Methodology

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3-1

3 SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS

3.1 Segment Selection Process

One of the first steps of the Assessment was to define the set of market segments that are relevant to BC Hydro. Table 3-1 shows the residential and commercial market segments that have been selected as a result of discussions with the BC Hydro staff and analysis of the building types provided in the CPR studies.

Table 3-1 Market Segments

Segment Number Segment Description

Residential Sector: 1 Single Family (detached, multi-plexes, row houses) 2 Multi Family Low-Rise (low rise apartments and condos –

individual and master-metered accounts) 3 Multi Family High-Rise (high rise apartments and condos –

individual and master-metered accounts) 4 Manufactured Housing

Commercial Sector: 5 Large Office 6 Medium Office 7 Large Retail 8 Medium Retail 9 Grocery 10 Large Hotel 11 Medium Hotel/Motel 12 Hospital 13 Nursing Home 14 Large School 15 Medium School 16 Universities and Colleges 17 Restaurants/Taverns 18 Warehouses/Wholesale 19 Small Commercial 20 Mixed Use/Miscellaneous Commercial

Segmentation Analysis

3-2

Further distinctions were made to characterize different vintages in the building stock (e.g., existing versus new construction). Table 3-2 defines the vintages developed for the residential and commercial prototypes.

Table 3-2 Segment Vintage Definitions

Sector Vintage Definition

Existing

Buildings already constructed with baseline building shell characteristics at existing stock levels for British Columbia weather conditions and installed equipment adhering to existing stock efficiency levels.

Residential

New Construction

Buildings to be constructed in the future; installed HVAC equipment meeting current minimum efficiency standards; baseline building shell characteristics adhering to current known energy codes and construction practices in British Columbia.

Existing

Buildings already constructed with baseline building shell characteristics at existing stock levels for British Columbia weather conditions and installed equipment adhering to existing stock efficiency levels.

Commercial

New Construction

Building to be constructed in the future; installed HVAC equipment meeting current minimum efficiency standards; baseline building shell characteristics adhering to current known energy codes and construction practices in British Columbia.

3.2 Prototype Model Development

While the application of the building type approach is somewhat limited in that not all possible variations of the building population are considered, this approach is arguably the most comprehensive in terms of capturing the most representative characteristics of the building population. Based on discussions with BC Hydro staff, the experience of the previous CPR studies, and the outside experience of the Global study team, the definition of four residential and 20 commercial prototypes was considered sufficient for the purposes of conducting this assessment. Using the Pacific Northwest DEEM building types as a basis, prototypes were developed for the residential segments and the commercial segments. In this study, the single-family home prototype is used as a proxy for modeling manufactured homes, with changes to the


3-3

building floor area to reflect the smaller size of manufactured homes.5 The multi-family low-rise and high-rise segments were modeled using the same prototype, and the prototype characterizes these homes at the single residential-unit level (i.e. per apartment unit, etc.). The results for the small commercial segment were based on a small retail prototype, while the results for mixed use/miscellaneous commercial segment were based on secondary data. Each prototype was designed to correspond to a typical building of its type and incorporated the major components affecting energy use in each segment of the residential and commercial sectors, including:

• Air conditioning and ventilation equipment,

• Heating equipment,

• Lighting,

• Refrigeration equipment,

• Water heating equipment,

• HVAC motors,

• Miscellaneous equipment such as office equipment, laundry and cooking appliances.

It is important to note that “typical” is not intended to represent the average building in the population. There are many parameters that represent a building’s makeup – including square footage, equipment type, equipment efficiency level, and building construction. All of these parameters cannot be specified as the average since such a specification would not represent a realistic building that could be modeled for base case consumption and energy savings resulting from equipment upgrades. As such, we relied on values for each parameter that represent “typical” characteristics, with what we estimated as representative averages for a few of the key parameters. For example, in developing the prototype models for BC Hydro’s service territories, we assessed the single most important parameter – square footage – as representing a composite average among the four regions. For many of the other parameters, “typical” values were assigned for that size of building, consistent with building and equipment practices in British Columbia.

Each prototype was developed to best reflect British Columbia’s unique conditions in terms of building construction and weather. Detailed specifications were made for parameters such as:

• Floor area • Cooling equipment efficiencies

• Number of Floors • Heating equipment efficiencies

• Lighting Density • Insulation levels

• Equipment Density • Occupancy levels

• Operating hours • Operating controls

We have worked to ensure that these specifications were made in accordance with measured and anecdotal building conditions in British Columbia. Another important source of information that

5 Note that mobile homes were not explicitly modeled, however their effects were captured in the manufactured housing building type category.


3-4

we used for developing the building prototype descriptions is the BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2002 study. In order to capture differences in construction practices in the various BC Hydro service territories, we have developed two sets of prototypes: one set to represent buildings located in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island service territories, and a second set for the Northern Region and Southern Interior service territories. The building prototype descriptions that we developed and used in this study can be found in Appendix B (Tables B-1 through B-18 are for the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island service territories, and Tables B-19 through B-36 are for the Northern Region and Southern Interior service territories).

3.2.1 BEST Model Development

To simplify the development and manipulation of the residential and commercial prototypes, we adapted our Building Energy Simulation Tool or BEST, a software application developed and tailored to meet the requirements of this study. BEST is a building energy analysis tool that utilizes the powerful DOE-2 model in an easy-to-use Windows -based software platform. BEST allows any user (even those with non-technical backgrounds) to select a prototype from a library of residential and commercial building types and perform building energy consumption simulations. Due to the DOE-2 algorithms, BEST is capable of accounting for climatic impacts on a building’s HVAC energy consumption. Climatic data for the location in question must be supplied to BEST in the typical meteorological year (TMY) format.

In addition, the user can make simple changes to modify the prototype and reflect an individual or a package of standard energy efficiency and capacity reduction measures. These measures include efficient lighting (compact fluorescent lamps, low-loss ballasts, and 32-watt T-8 fluorescent lamps with electronic ballasts), high efficiency appliances (refrigerators and freezers), high efficiency HVAC equipment (air conditioners and chillers), and high efficiency motors (ventilation fan motors and chilled water pump motors). By incorporating a package of measures all at one time, the user takes advantage of DOE-2’s capability to account for thermal interactions between measures and across multiple end-uses.

The results from the building energy simulation are available to the user in several different formats including:

• Annual electricity use by end-use,

• Peak demand by end-use, and

• Load shapes for 8760 hours in the year by end-use.

BEST also has advanced capabilities that allow a more experienced user to make more complex modifications to the base case prototype, including adjustments to the square footage, number of floors, lighting levels, wall and window characteristics, shading conditions, and HVAC equipment configurations and efficiency levels. This is accomplished using a simple interface accessed directly from within BEST. Documentation concerning the BEST software is presented in Appendix C.


3-5

It should be noted that the DOE-2 model, which runs in the background of BEST, only characterizes the energy usage from equipment that performs according to the building’s thermal integrity (e.g., heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting). For all of the other end-uses that are present in the building, BEST utilizes an equipment density, reflected in watts/square foot. In order for us to characterize energy usage for the other end-uses such as refrigeration, cooking, plug loads, etc., recently-developed secondary data were utilized to reflect the baseline unit energy consumption values for the other end-uses.

3.2.2 Weather Data

The BEST modeling of residential and commercial buildings in BC Hydro’s service territories required the use of typical meteorological year (TMY) weather data. TMY represents a composite of average temperatures and other weather conditions for 8760 hours in a typical year represented over a long historical time period (usually around 20-30 years). TMY data parameters include dry- and wet-bulb temperatures, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, and solar radiation. TMY weather data for many U.S., Canadian, and other international locations is available for download directly from the DOE2.com website. In this study, we used the following TMY data sets to model buildings located in each of the four BC Hydro service territories:

Table 3-3 TMY Data Used in Modeling Buildings Located in BC Hydro’s Service Territories

Service Territory TMY Weather Data Set

Lower Mainland Vancouver

Vancouver Island Victoria

Northern Region Prince George

Southern Interior Kamloops

3.2.3 Incorporation of the Energy Codes and Standards

The prototype used in this study incorporates various energy codes and standards that affect base case usage in residential and commercial buildings. The Council of American Building Officials’ Model Energy Code, the Model National Energy Code of Canada, and the ASHRAE standards were evaluated during the development of the BEST prototypes to ensure that the base case characterizations were consistent with existing energy codes and standards. In addition, with regard to new residential and commercial vintages as well as various appliance end-use categories, the appliance standards were taken into consideration as representative of the equipment usage under various capacity reduction measure categories.


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3.2.4 Prototype Model Description

This section contains narrative descriptions of the residential and commercial building prototypes used in this study. The purpose of the prototypes is to represent the typical characteristics and conditions of each building type. The prototypes are not meant to (and in fact, cannot) capture all possible configurations of each building type present in British Columbia, although Global attempts to distinguish between old and new buildings by including two vintages for each building prototype:

• Existing – this vintage covers buildings that have already been constructed; and

• New construction – this vintage covers buildings that have yet to be constructed but will be constructed the end of the study period (2016).

Development of these building prototypes are important for the establishment of base case conditions and models in this study. Note that the prototype approach is limited in that only a fixed number of building types and two building vintages are captured. In reality, there is a far greater variation of building types and vintages represented in BC Hydro’s population. However, characterizing the prototypes according to these definitions enables the type of analysis to be performed that is needed for estimating the capacity reduction technical potential.

Residential Sector

Three residential prototypes were developed: a single-family house, a multi-family residence, and a manufactured housing prototype. For manufactured housing, the consulting team used a smaller version (in terms of floor area) of the single-family house prototype as a proxy for all modeling of manufactured homes in this study. The multi-family low-rise and high-rise buildings were modeled using similar prototypes, which characterize these types of homes at the single residential-unit level (i.e. per apartment unit, etc.).6 These building prototypes were developed using a number of data sources, including:

• BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2002, Residential Sector Report;

• NEOS Corporation, Residential and Commercial Building Prototypes and DOE-2.1E Developed UECs and EUIs, October 1994;

• Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 1997;

• Council of American Building Officials, Model Energy Code, 1995;

• Electric Power Research Institute, Energy Market Profiles - Volume 2: 1995 Residential Buildings, Appliances, and Energy Use, 1996.

The exact description and specifications of the residential building prototypes for the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island service territories can be found in tables B-1 to B-3 located in

6 The main difference between the low-rise and the high-rise prototypes is that the low-rise prototype has a wood-frame construction whereas high-rise prototype has a masonry/concrete construction.


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Appendix B, while those of the Northern Region and Southern Interior service territories can be found in tables B-19 to B-21 also located in Appendix B.

Single-Family House

The single-family house prototype is a detached home that is representative of those found in British Columbia. Both the existing and new construction vintages are two-story structures with a basement. Both vintages have the following construction:

• Walls: plywood on wooden frame and wood siding with drywall on the interior;

• Roof: plywood on wooden frame and shingles with gypsum plaster ceilings.

The house has room air-conditioners and electric baseboard heating. An electric water heater serves domestic hot water needs. Note that while the prototype contains electric space heating and water heating equipment, the assessment of the baseline and savings potential from the capacity reduction measures evaluated in this study addresses the actual saturation of electric equipment in BC Hydro’s service territories.

Multi-Family Residence

The multi-family residence prototype is representative of both the low-rise and high-rise multi-unit apartment buildings and condominiums found in British Columbia. The prototype itself is a two-story building with 24 residential units. However, all modeling results are presented at the “per-residential unit” level. Both vintages have the following construction:

• Walls: plywood on wooden frame and wood siding with drywall on the interior;

• Roof: plywood on wooden frame and shingles with gypsum plaster ceilings.

Each residential unit has room air-conditioners and electric baseboard heating in both vintages. An electric water heater serves domestic hot water needs. Note that while the prototype contains electric space heating and water heating equipment, the assessment of the baseline and savings potential from the capacity reduction measures evaluated in this study addresses the actual saturation of electric equipment in BC Hydro’s service territories.

Manufactured Housing

This prototype is representative of manufactured housing found in British Columbia. For modeling purposes, we based this prototype on the single-family house prototype and made the following changes:

• Single-story structure with no basement;

• Decrease in the total floor area.

The house has room air-conditioners and electric baseboard heating. An electric water heater serves domestic hot water needs. Note that while the prototype contains electric space heating and water heating equipment, the assessment of the baseline and savings potential from the


3-8

capacity reduction measures evaluated in this study addresses the actual saturation of electric equipment in BC Hydro’s service territories.

Commercial Sector

Fifteen commercial prototypes were developed: large office, medium office, large retail, medium retail, grocery store, large hotel, medium hotel, hospital, nursing home, large school, medium school, college, restaurant, warehouse, and small retail. These building prototypes were developed using a number of data sources, including:

• BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2002, Commercial Sector Report;

• NEOS Corporation, Residential and Commercial Building Prototypes and DOE-2.1E Developed UECs and EUIs, October 1994;

• Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, Commercial Energy Consumption Survey, 1997;

• Amercan Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Engineers, Energy Code for Commercial and High-Rise Residential Buildings (ASHRAE/IES 90.1-1989), 1998;

• Electric Power Research Institute, Energy Market Profiles - Volume 1: 1995 Commercial Buildings, Appliances, and Energy Use, 1996.

The exact description and specifications of the commercial building prototypes for the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island service territories can be found in tables B-4 to B-18 located in Appendix B, while those of the Northern Region and Southern Interior service territories can be found in tables B-22 to B-36 also located in Appendix B. These prototypes were assumed to be typical for BC Hydro, given that many of the parameters that defined the prototypes (e.g., floorarea, equipment mixes, etc.) were extracted from the 2002 CPR study as well as supplemented by input from the BC Hydro technical staff.

Large Office and Medium Office

The large office and the medium office prototypes are identical except for the size of the buildings. The large office building is a 19-story rectangular building with a total area of 230,000 ft2, or 12,105 ft2 per floor. The medium office building is a 11-story rectangular building with a total area of 134,400 ft2, or 12,218 ft2 per floor. For both prototypes, the exterior walls are assumed to be curtain-type walls, composed of a spandrel-type exterior finish and a gypsum board interior finish. The roof is made up of built-up roofing and a concrete deck. Windows account for 55 percent of the exterior wall area, with no shading due to overhangs or other buildings. The windows are double-pane clear glass in the existing vintage, and double-pane low-E glass in the new construction

Perimeter offices

Perimeter offices

Interior (Core) offices

Office: Floor Plan


3-9

vintage.

The large office and medium office building operate from 7 a.m. until 6 p.m. Monday through Friday and is closed on weekends and holidays. Air-conditioning is supplied by a central chilled water system, with the central plant containing centrifugal chillers with water cooling towers. The chillers have a peak efficiency of 0.7 kW/ton in the existing vintage and 0.6 kW/ton in the new construction vintage.

Each floor is divided into 5 zones, with one perimeter zone on each orientation and one zone in the interior. The depth of the perimeter zones extends 15 ft from the exterior walls. Each of these zones are assumed to be fully conditioned space. There is electric heating capability in each zone, and the air-conditioning system can cycle on at night in order to maintain interior temperatures.

The lighting density in all zones is 1.56 W/ft2 in both vintages. Similarly, the equipment density, which includes the electric usage of appliances, office equipment and other plug loads, is 0.9 W/ft2 in all zones in both vintages. Large electric water heaters and hot water circulation pumps provide hot water to all zones of the building. Note that while the prototype contains electric space heating and water heating equipment, the assessment of the baseline and capacity reduction potential performed in this study addresses the actual saturation of electric equipment in BC Hydro’s service territories.

Large Retail and Medium Retail

The large retail and medium retail prototypes are identical except for the size of the buildings. Both prototypes are a single-story buildings. Walls are solid masonry and the roof is made of concrete deck. There is a minimal amount of windows. The building is open from 10 a.m. until 9 p.m. every day. Air-conditioning is supplied by packaged rooftop systems that have an efficiency of 8.2 Energy Efficiency Ratio (“EER”) in the existing vintage and 8.9 EER in the new construction vintage. Supply air is circulated to the building via ductwork. Heating is provided by forced-air rooftop electric heaters, and the air-conditioning system does not cycle on at night when the store is closed.

Office

Core zone

Top floor

Bottom floor

Middle floors

Office: Perspective

Perimeter zone

Showroom

Stor

age

Retail: Floor Plan


3-10

The interior of the building is broken into three main zones: showroom (80% of total ft2), offices (5% of total ft2) and storage (15% of total ft2). Each of these zones are assumed to be fully conditioned space except for the storage area.

The lighting and equipment density in all zones can be found in the detailed tables in Appendix B. Large electric water heaters provide hot water to the building. Note that while the prototype contains electric space heating and water heating equipment, the assessment of the baseline and capacity reduction potential performed in this study addresses the actual saturation of electric equipment in BC Hydro’s service territories.

Grocery Store

The grocery store is a one-story building with a total area of 13,000 ft2. The store has five main areas: sales area, cashier area, office, bakery and storage area. The sales area covers 70% of the total area, the cashier area covers 10% of the total area, the office is approximately 2% of the total area, the bakery is approximately 3% of the total area, and storage areas make up the remaining 15% of the total area. Walls are solid masonry and the roof is made up of built-up roofing and a wood deck. Windows cover 16% of the wall area on the entrance side of the store. The windows are single-pane clear glass in the existing vintage, and double-pane clear glass in the new construction vintage.

The store is open from 10 a.m. until 10 p.m. 7 days a week. The sales area includes refrigerated casework at three temperatures, -10, 28, and 34 degrees (F), and has thermostatically controlled electric resistance defrost. All zones within the building (except the storage area) are cooled with packaged rooftop air-conditioning units, with an efficiency of 8.5 EER in the existing vintage and 8.9 EER in the new construction vintage. Supply air is circulated to the building via ductwork. Space heating is provided by electric heaters, and the air-conditioning system can cycle on at night in order to maintain interior temperatures.

Offices Storage

Sales

Grocery Store: Floor Plan

Bakery

Cashier

Grocery Store: Perspective


3-11


Large Hotel and Medium Hotel

The large hotel and medium hotel prototypes are identical except for the size of the buildings and the type of HVAC system used. Both prototypes have a lobby, offices, restaurant and retail sales areas on the first floor, and occupied and unoccupied guestrooms on the remaining upper floors. The large hotel prototype is a 10-story building and has a total conditioned floor area of 200,000 ft2. The medium hotel prototype is a 3-story building and has a total conditioned floor area of 76,512 ft2. Walls are solid masonry and the roof is made of a concrete deck. The windows are double-pane clear glass in both vintages. Windows account for 30 percent of the exterior wall area.

The interior of the building is divided into many different zones, as illustrated in the floor plan drawings above. In the large hotel, air-conditioning is supplied by a central chilled water system, with the central plant containing centrifugal chillers with water cooling towers. The chillers have a peak efficiency of 0.7 kW/ton in the existing vintage and 0.6 kW/ton in the new construction vintage. There is electric reheat capability in each zone of the building, and the air-conditioning system operates on a 24-hour basis. The medium hotel has rooftop packaged cooling units and electric furnaces. Each of the zones are assumed to be fully conditioned spaces except for the unoccupied guestrooms.

The breakdown of each zone (in terms of percent of the total floor area) and the lighting and equipment density in all zones can be found in the detailed tables located in Appendix B. Large electric water heaters provide hot water to the building. Note that while the prototype contains electric space heating and water heating equipment, the assessment of the baseline and capacity reduction potential performed in this study addresses the actual saturation of electric equipment in BC Hydro’s service territories.

Retail Sales

Hotel: First Floor Plan (not to scale)

Offices

Lobby

Restaurant

Hotel: Upper Floor Plan (not to scale)

Corridor

Occupied Rooms Unoccupied Rooms

Unoccupied Rooms

Occupied Rooms


3-12

Hospital

The hospital is a 10-story building with a total area of 150,000 ft2 in both the existing and new construction vintages. The building has five main areas: public lobby area, office area, ICU/Lab area, kitchen/cafeteria area, and healthcare area. The pubic area covers 25% of the total area, the office area covers 10% of the total area, the ICU/Lab area is approximately 5% of the total area, the kitchen/cafeteria area is approximately 5% of the total area, and the remaining 55% is patient healthcare area. Walls are spandrel construction and the roof is made up of built-up roofing and a concrete deck. Windows cover approximately 5% of the wall area. The windows are double-pane clear glass in both vintages.

The hospital operates 24 hours per day, seven days per week. HVAC is provided by a central chilled water system, with the central plant containing centrifugal chillers with water cooling towers. The chillers have a peak efficiency of 0.7 kW/ton in the existing vintage and 0.6 kW/ton in the new construction vintage. There is electric reheat capability in each zone of the building, and the air-conditioning system operates on a 24-hour basis.


Nursing Home

The nursing home prototype is based on the hospital prototype, with the following major differences:

• Two-story building with a total floor area of 56,403 ft2;

• The pubic area covers 13% of the total area, the office area covers 5% of the total area, the ICU/Lab area is approximately 2% of the total area, the kitchen/cafeteria area is approximately 5% of the total area, and the remaining 75% is patient care or patient residence area;

• HVAC is provided by forced-air rooftop air conditioners and electric heaters.

Large School, Medium School and College

The prototypes for the large school, medium school and college are nearly identical with the exception of the building size and allocation of spaces. The total conditioned area of the large school is 91,138 ft2, while that of the medium school and college are 30,204 ft2 and 90,000 ft2 respectively. All three prototypes are single-story buildings that are divided into the

Classrooms

School: Floor Plan

Cafeteria

Offices

Library


3-13

following zones: classrooms, administrative offices, cafeteria and library. Exterior walls are constructed from wood frame and masonry materials, and the roof is made up of built-up roofing and a wood deck. The windows are double-pane clear glass. Windows account for 30 percent of the exterior wall area.

The large school, medium school and college operate from 7 a.m. until 4 p.m. Monday through Friday and is closed on weekends and holidays. Air-conditioning is supplied by packaged rooftop systems that have an efficiency of 8.5 EER in the existing vintage and 8.9 EER in the new construction vintage. Space heating is provided by forced-air rooftop electric heaters. Supply air is circulated to the building via ductwork.


Restaurant

The restaurant is a one-story building with four zones: the entry (10% of total floor area), kitchen (25% of total floor area), restroom (5% of total floor area) and dining area (60% of total floor area). The total conditioned area of the building is 8,400 ft2. Walls are constructed of masonry materials and the roof is made up of built-up roofing and a wood deck. Windows cover 25% of the wall area of the entry and dining areas. The windows are single-pane clear glass in the existing vintage, and double-pane clear glass in the new construction vintage.

The restaurant is open from 10 a.m. until 9 p.m. 7 days a week. All zones within the restaurant are cooled with packaged rooftop air-conditioning units, with an efficiency of 8.5 EER in the existing vintage and 8.9 EER in the new construction vintage. Space heating is provided by forced-air rooftop electric heaters. Supply air is circulated to the building via ductwork. The air-conditioning system does not cycle on at night when the restaurant is closed.


Dining Room

Restaurant: Floor Plan

Kitchen

Entry


3-14

Warehouse

The warehouse prototype is based on the grocery store prototype, with the following major differences:

• Total floor area of 34,000 ft2;

• The sales area is counted as storage area. These two spaces covers 90% of the total area of the building. The office area covers 3% of the total area, while other miscellaneous areas make up the remaining 7% of the total area of the building.

Small Retail

The small retail prototype is a single-story building. The total area of the building is 8,100 ft2. Walls are solid masonry and the roof is made of a concrete deck. There is a minimal amount of windows. The building is open from 10 a.m. until 9 p.m. every day. Air-conditioning is supplied by packaged rooftop systems that have an efficiency of 8.5 EER in the existing vintage and 8.9 EER in the new construction vintage. Heating is provided by forced-air electric heaters. Supply air is circulated to the building via ductwork.

The interior of the building is broken into two main zones: sales (80% of total ft2) and storage (20% of total ft2). The storage area is not conditioned space. The HVAC system does cycles on at night when the store is closed.


Sales

Stor

age

Small Retail: Floor Plan

4-1

4 BASE CASE

4.1 Base Case Analysis Approach

The purpose of the base case assessment is to provide a breakdown of the energy usage and demand for each region by sector, segment and end use. The base case serves as the “baseline” against which the technical potential end use savings can be compared.

4.1.1 Control Totals for Base Case

The first step in the base case assessment was to establish the control totals or reference point from which to start the analysis. The December 2004 Electric Load Forecast (with Power Smart) served as the basis for the control total numbers. This Assessment is primarily focused on capacity reduction for BC Hydro’s distribution-level customers and a few transmission-level customers, therefore, the control total numbers will not exactly match the tables in the Electric Load Forecast tables which include total system sales. The transmission-level sales that were included in the control totals are for a few Lower Mainland transmission-level facilities with commercial-type characteristics that would benefit from capacity reduction initiatives. Table 4-1 illustrates the various sales components that comprise the control totals for the Lower Mainland base case numbers.

Table 4-1 Control Total Numbers – Lower Mainland

Sector SalesEnergy (GWH)

Residential Sector Residential Sales 8,325 2,279

Commercial Sector Commercial Distribution Sales 9,054 1,644 (c)Small Industrial Distribution Sales 2,143Industrial Transmission Sales (b) 350 55Total "Commercial" 11,547 1,699

Total Lower Mainland 19,872 3,978

(a) Demand includes distribution losses(b) Facilities with commercial -type characteristics - Lower Mainland only(c) Value includes demand for commercial and small industrial distribution sales

FY 2005 - Lower Mainland

Demand (MW) (a)

Base Case

4-2

Two sets of control totals for the peak demand were established: one set for the regional coincident peak (or regional maximum peak) and a second set for the system coincident peak. The system coincident peak demands were obtained by applying the regional coincident load factors to the regional coincident peak demands.

The next step was to break down the energy sales and peak demand forecast by segment. This was accomplished by applying the percentages of sales by building type obtained from the CPR report to the forecast numbers. The sales for the Lower Mainland transmission-level facilities were allocated to the miscellaneous commercial segment. This included two universities, which were classified into the college building type category and an airport, which was classified into the miscellaneous building type category.

4.1.2 End Use Modeling Approach

The analytical framework for the base case end use analysis is illustrated in Figure 4-1. A prototype modeling approach was taken to obtain the energy usage and demand by end use for both the residential and commercial sectors. This approach specifies the typical building parameters (such as square footage, base equipment types and efficiencies, and shell levels) for each of the segments identified in BC Hydro’s service territory and accounts for the specific weather conditions and standard building construction practices in the area. Once the building parameters were specified, BEST was populated and operated to estimate base case energy usage by end-use. The values produced from the BEST models served as key inputs for the residential and commercial base case models.

Base Case

4-3

Figure 4-1 Approach for Base Case Development

The residential and commercial base case models allocate the total sales by segment using the saturation-weighted end-use shares determined from the end use unit-level analysis. End use unit-level values from BEST were used to determine the end-use shares for each building type. These values were weighted by the saturations for each end use. The saturations were obtained from the CPR report and BC Hydro’s residential end-use study. Representative secondary data was used when utility-specific data was unavailable. We calculated the end-use shares using the saturation-weighted data by dividing the annual energy consumption (or demand) for each end use by the building’s total usage. The saturation-weighted end use shares were then allocated proportionately to the residential and commercial control totals for each segment. Before applying the end-use shares, we divided the base case into two vintage groups: existing stock and new stock. We assumed that the existing stock was constant over the planning period, while new stock was represented by the annual growth in the baseline. The residential results were consolidated into six end uses for each of the four dwelling types. The six end uses for each dwelling are reflected in Table 4-2.

FINAL BASE CASE

Apply Fuel Saturations

Residential & CommercialBEST prototypes

Market Segments

Base Case Development

BCH Load

ForecastCalculate End Use Shares

FINAL BASE CASE

Apply Fuel Saturations

Residential & CommercialBEST prototypes

Market Segments

Base Case Development

BCH Load

ForecastCalculate End Use Shares

Base Case

4-4

Table 4-2 Residential End-Uses

Dwelling End-Uses Lighting Plug (refrigerator, appliances, misc.) Heating Cooling Water Heating Exterior Lighting

The commercial results were consolidated into eight end uses for each of the sixteen building types. The eight end uses for each building are shown in Table 4-3.

Table 4-3 Commercial End-Uses

Building End-Uses Lighting Plug (misc. equipment) Heating Cooling Auxiliary (pumps, etc.) Ventilation Refrigeration Water Heating

4.2 End Use Unit-Level Results

As described in the previous section, the formulation of the residential and commercial base cases requires an analysis of the unit-level energy consumption and peak demand of each individual electricity end-use. This section presents the results of the unit-level analysis of the end-uses. Table 4-4 through Table 4-7 present the results for the residential sector, and Table 4-8 through Table 4-11 present the results for the commercial sector.

We note the following concerning the unit-level results:

• The unit energy consumption and peak demand were determined for each type of end use for two different categories of buildings: (1) existing buildings and (2) new construction buildings;

• The end-use unit-level energy consumption and peak demand for the base cases are direct outputs from BEST;

Base Case

4-5

• The end-use unit-level energy consumption and peak demand for the base cases reported in Table 4-4 through Table 4-11 have not been weighted with market saturations of electric space heating, water heating, plug loads, and cooling;

• The unit-level results for the small retail prototype were used to represent the small commercial segment. The miscellaneous commercial segment was not modeled as a prototype due to the mix of buildings within this segment. In the base case and technical potential analysis, the miscellaneous segment numbers were derived by taking a weighted average of the results from the prototypes that were modeled;

• The peak electricity demand results reported in Table 4-4 through Table 4-11 are coincident to the regional peak. Although not shown in the following tables in this section, the peak electricity demand occurring in each of the 12 months was also analyzed in this study. Appendix D and Appendix E provide the complete monthly unit-level results for the regional peak and the overall system peak, respectively;

• Some results may seem to be inconsistent at first glace. For instance, the single family heating unit-level energy consumption in the new construction vintage is lower than that of the existing vintage. However, the heating demand is higher in the new construction vintage than that of the existing vintage. These types of observations can usually be explained by considering the prototype differences between the two vintages. In this case, the higher levels of insulation in the new construction vintage results in a lower annual heating energy consumption, but the larger floor area of the new construction vintage drives the higher instantaneous heating demand compared to the existing vintage.

• In this study, the annual peak demand is determined using the electricity demand that occurs during a pre-determined date and time during the month of December. BC Hydro also provided the consulting team with the estimates of the date and time coincident with the regional peak and the overall BC Hydro system peak in each month of the year. Table 4-12 shows the estimated peak-coincident dates and times that were provided by BC Hydro’s Load Forecast Department for use in this study.

Table 4-4 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower Mainland

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,052 0.45 2,503 0.55 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,371 0.25 1,584 0.25Plug 5,001 0.65 5,485 0.75 2,090 0.37 2,034 0.36 2,090 0.37 2,034 0.36 3,320 0.40 3,513 0.45Heating 8,840 5.40 7,781 5.45 2,142 2.31 1,442 1.91 2,118 2.33 1,525 1.98 6,064 3.65 4,717 3.55Cooling 652 0.00 952 0.00 61 0.00 78 0.00 46 0.00 68 0.00 0 0.00 578 0.00WH 3,361 0.80 3,264 0.80 2,888 0.24 2,789 0.23 2,888 0.24 2,789 0.23 4,026 0.35 3,918 0.35Exterior/Common 274 0.00 274 0.00 329 0.00 329 0.00 762 0.16 718 0.14 329 0.00 329 0.00Total 20,180 7.30 20,259 7.55 8,668 3.12 7,787 2.70 9,062 3.30 8,250 2.91 15,109 4.65 14,639 4.60

End-UseExisting New

Single Family Multi-Family Low-RiseExisting New

Multi-Family High-RiseExisting New

Manufactured HousingExisting New

Base Case

4-6

Table 4-5 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Vancouver Island

Table 4-6 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Southern Interior

Table 4-7 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,390 0.45 2,921 0.55 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,371 0.25 1,584 0.25Plug 4,496 0.65 5,067 0.75 2,090 0.37 2,034 0.36 2,090 0.37 2,034 0.36 3,320 0.40 3,513 0.45Heating 9,274 5.00 7,951 4.30 1,873 1.55 1,207 1.08 1,851 1.60 1,285 1.18 5,410 3.30 4,075 2.75Cooling 714 0.00 1,063 0.00 55 0.00 69 0.00 40 0.00 60 0.00 0 0.00 525 0.00WH 3,935 0.80 3,820 0.80 2,902 0.24 2,802 0.23 2,902 0.24 2,802 0.23 4,047 0.35 3,929 0.35Exterior/Common 319 0.00 319 0.00 329 0.00 329 0.00 749 0.12 706 0.09 329 0.00 329 0.00Total 21,127 6.90 21,140 6.40 8,408 2.36 7,556 1.87 8,791 2.53 8,003 2.06 14,476 4.30 13,954 3.80

Multi-Family High-Rise Manufactured HousingExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Single Family Multi-Family Low-Rise

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,382 0.45 2,733 0.50 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,371 0.25 1,584 0.25Plug 3,454 0.65 3,829 0.70 2,090 0.37 2,034 0.36 2,090 0.37 2,034 0.36 3,320 0.40 3,513 0.45Heating 13,190 5.30 11,069 5.25 3,200 2.10 2,247 1.66 3,175 2.07 2,361 1.70 7,827 3.35 6,395 3.35Cooling 1,831 0.00 1,972 0.00 425 0.00 431 0.00 390 0.00 415 0.00 1,163 0.00 1,364 0.00WH 3,916 0.80 3,801 0.80 2,952 0.25 2,850 0.24 2,952 0.25 2,850 0.24 4,131 0.35 4,000 0.35Exterior/Common 311 0.00 312 0.00 329 0.00 329 0.00 836 0.15 779 0.12 329 0.00 329 0.00Total 25,083 7.20 23,716 7.25 10,154 2.92 9,006 2.46 10,602 3.04 9,555 2.62 18,141 4.35 17,184 4.40

Manufactured HousingExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Single Family Multi-Family Low-Rise Multi-Family High-Rise

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,441 0.40 2,797 0.45 1,159 0.18 1,116 0.17 1,159 0.18 1,116 0.17 1,371 0.20 1,584 0.25Plug 3,540 0.55 3,919 0.65 2,090 0.33 2,034 0.32 2,090 0.33 2,034 0.32 3,320 0.35 3,513 0.40Heating 18,314 7.05 16,115 6.75 4,346 2.18 3,283 1.86 4,312 2.20 3,435 1.92 10,718 4.20 9,176 4.00Cooling 624 0.00 740 0.00 67 0.00 76 0.00 51 0.00 66 0.00 365 0.00 446 0.00WH 4,426 0.80 4,277 0.80 3,255 0.25 3,145 0.24 3,255 0.25 3,145 0.24 4,557 0.35 4,398 0.35Exterior/Common 319 0.10 319 0.10 329 0.10 329 0.10 891 0.25 828 0.23 329 0.10 329 0.10Total 29,665 8.90 28,167 8.75 11,246 3.04 9,982 2.69 11,758 3.21 10,623 2.88 20,659 5.20 19,445 5.10

Manufactured HousingExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use


Base Case

4-7

Table 4-8 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower Mainland

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,391,949 251.20 1,391,949 251.20 813,244 146.80 813,244 146.80 6,634,207 1325.00 2,865,949 572.40 1,110,176 221.70 1,031,327 206.00Plug 885,186 82.80 885,186 82.80 517,358 48.40 517,358 48.40 1,202,227 231.30 468,430 90.10 198,969 38.30 167,435 32.20Heating 622,956 0.00 327,678 0.00 383,052 0.00 199,606 0.00 206,882 28.30 106,074 27.10 66,519 13.00 48,239 12.10Cooling 502,236 0.00 193,040 0.00 230,045 0.00 98,861 0.00 507,743 31.30 295,542 0.00 129,310 0.00 103,517 0.00Aux. 222,208 0.00 137,328 0.00 62,614 0.00 42,955 0.00 321,293 51.70 953 0.20 953 0.20 953 0.20Ventilation 401,616 0.00 323,750 0.00 236,287 0.00 189,589 0.00 852,112 152.00 312,229 57.30 121,705 22.40 111,910 20.70Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 83,921 0.00 82,339 0.00 49,053 0.00 48,024 0.00 262,862 72.50 119,628 33.00 43,946 12.10 43,078 11.90Total 4,110,072 334.00 3,341,270 334.00 2,291,653 195.20 1,909,637 195.20 9,987,326 1892.10 4,168,804 780.10 1,671,578 307.70 1,506,458 283.10

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 116.10 691,856 80.00 296,776 37.40 207,173 24.10 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 119,001 22.90 119,001 22.90 1,611,755 304.10 1,367,159 254.40 426,458 78.20 357,978 64.20 1,090,399 154.80 557,254 79.10Heating 323,281 71.10 335,306 69.70 827,839 303.93 932,124 343.15 269,825 85.60 302,028 95.80 2,724,660 664.10 686,821 160.20Cooling 564 0.00 139 0.00 140,243 8.20 103,421 6.40 138,020 0.00 98,259 0.00 154,801 12.50 134,459 9.20Aux. 953 0.20 953 0.20 147,381 16.00 138,296 15.10 473 0.10 477 0.10 214,432 23.90 192,325 21.20Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,691 13.20 90,698 11.70 90,557 11.40 562,392 64.20 237,864 27.20Refrig. 297,393 35.30 297,885 35.30 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 44,116 12.20 43,219 11.90 503,170 31.70 492,931 31.00 192,507 12.10 188,571 11.90 290,858 53.10 284,845 52.00Total 917,987 168.00 907,629 162.00 4,340,557 799.23 3,842,477 743.25 1,414,756 225.10 1,245,043 207.50 7,296,268 1284.00 4,099,260 625.40

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 40.10 248,361 32.60 101,137 13.30 82,388 10.80 317,018 41.60 255,877 33.50Plug 407,922 57.90 208,485 29.60 86,751 12.10 86,751 12.10 28,777 4.00 28,777 4.00 74,542 10.40 74,542 10.40Heating 675,977 172.50 365,554 113.90 938,658 715.30 938,361 701.70 322,204 248.10 320,797 242.90 1,073,027 808.30 1,079,418 797.00Cooling 27,888 0.00 21,519 0.00 15,964 0.00 12,936 0.00 6,222 0.00 5,177 0.00 13,090 0.00 10,286 0.00Aux. 1,907 0.40 506 0.00 921 0.20 929 0.20 916 0.20 925 0.20 925 0.20 929 0.20Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 34.00 89,386 34.00 30,234 11.50 30,234 11.50 103,057 39.20 103,057 39.20Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 109,403 20.00 107,044 19.50 60,887 0.00 59,744 0.00 20,228 0.00 19,845 0.00 60,135 0.00 58,984 0.00Total 2,249,838 389.00 1,629,953 287.70 1,498,315 801.70 1,436,468 780.60 509,718 277.10 488,141 269.40 1,641,793 899.70 1,583,092 880.30

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 18,039 3.60 14,672 2.90 226,418 45.20 177,387 35.40 103,220 20.60 128,029 25.60Plug 145,377 28.00 144,901 27.90 258,744 49.80 258,744 49.80 26,852 5.20 31,534 6.10Heating 16,747 10.00 13,862 8.60 558,663 128.30 582,307 125.70 21,441 9.50 14,844 0.00Cooling 22,380 3.40 10,087 0.00 8,415 0.00 3,839 0.00 15,263 0.00 18,936 0.00Aux. 459 0.20 950 0.20 936 0.20 953 0.20 416 0.10 321 0.10Ventilation 12,808 2.50 11,783 2.30 81,968 16.00 78,894 15.40 13,318 2.40 8,611 1.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 611,232 72.60 612,253 72.60 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 7,847 2.20 7,847 2.20 115,380 31.80 112,987 31.20 6,217 1.70 8,165 2.20Total 223,656 49.90 204,101 44.10 1,861,758 343.90 1,827,365 330.30 186,726 39.50 210,442 35.00

Existing NewEnd-Use

Restaurant WarehouseNew

Small Com. (Small Retail)Existing New Existing

College/UniversityExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Nursing Home Large School Medium School

HospitalExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Grocery Store Large Hotel Medium Hotel

Medium RetailExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Large Office Medium Office Large Retail

Base Case

4-8

Table 4-9 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Vancouver Island


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 130.40 691,856 85.00 296,776 43.40 207,173 26.10 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 119,001 22.90 119,001 22.90 1,611,755 317.40 1,367,159 262.40 426,458 83.70 357,978 67.50 1,090,399 154.80 557,254 79.10Heating 320,397 73.70 333,861 72.30 772,975 301.95 882,160 352.78 250,399 87.70 282,400 100.90 2,699,622 815.20 537,602 234.00Cooling 495 0.00 111 0.00 126,201 7.90 95,325 6.50 125,345 0.00 83,505 0.00 163,571 14.30 138,828 10.40Aux. 978 0.20 978 0.20 142,038 15.40 135,898 14.90 487 0.10 489 0.10 222,368 24.80 196,551 21.50Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,434 13.20 89,983 11.10 90,403 11.40 561,516 64.10 230,648 27.70Refrig. 294,044 35.10 294,610 35.10 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 44,233 12.20 43,294 11.90 504,835 44.40 494,463 43.50 193,129 17.00 189,171 16.60 291,582 52.70 285,637 51.60Total 911,825 170.40 902,981 164.40 4,267,973 836.65 3,783,295 778.28 1,382,576 243.00 1,211,120 222.60 7,287,783 1437.30 3,952,213 700.80

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 6.70 248,361 5.40 101,137 2.20 82,388 1.80 317,018 6.90 255,877 5.60Plug 407,922 57.90 208,485 29.60 86,751 1.20 86,751 1.20 28,777 0.40 28,777 0.40 74,542 1.00 74,542 1.00Heating 657,744 218.30 353,044 160.40 886,234 0.00 887,693 0.00 303,044 0.00 302,275 0.00 1,014,349 0.00 1,022,571 0.00Cooling 20,251 0.00 15,152 0.00 14,926 0.00 11,940 0.00 5,768 0.00 4,757 0.00 11,720 0.00 9,130 0.00Aux. 1,957 0.40 538 0.00 906 0.20 915 0.20 899 0.20 906 0.20 906 0.20 915 0.20Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 0.00 89,386 0.00 30,234 0.00 30,234 0.00 103,057 0.00 103,057 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 109,631 19.80 107,454 19.40 60,968 0.00 59,816 0.00 20,200 0.00 19,815 0.00 60,208 0.00 59,050 0.00Total 2,224,247 434.60 1,611,519 334.10 1,444,919 8.10 1,384,861 6.80 490,058 2.80 469,152 2.40 1,581,800 8.10 1,525,141 6.80


End-Use

Restaurant Warehouse Small Com. (Small Retail)Existing New Existing New Existing New


End-Use


Existing New Existing New

New

End-Use

Grocery Store Large Hotel Medium Hotel HospitalExisting New Existing New

New Existing New ExistingLarge Retail Medium Retail

End-Use

Large Office Medium OfficeExisting New Existing

Base Case

4-9

Table 4-10 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Southern Interior

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,391,949 251.20 1,391,949 251.20 813,244 146.80 813,244 146.80 3,082,817 615.70 2,865,949 572.40 1,110,176 221.70 1,031,327 206.00Plug 885,186 82.80 885,186 82.80 517,358 48.40 517,358 48.40 556,848 107.10 468,430 90.10 198,969 38.30 167,435 32.20Heating 1,301,644 0.00 732,826 0.00 784,539 0.00 438,636 0.00 434,952 16.80 308,022 25.40 171,020 11.90 133,284 11.20Cooling 619,243 0.00 261,875 0.00 295,324 0.00 148,226 0.00 338,501 15.30 392,607 0.00 174,486 0.00 139,397 0.00Aux. 276,403 0.00 164,322 0.00 71,597 0.00 44,604 0.00 174,678 24.60 970 0.20 970 0.20 970 0.20Ventilation 491,520 0.00 368,711 0.00 288,971 0.00 215,822 0.00 446,766 71.30 335,721 57.90 133,701 22.70 122,249 21.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 85,637 0.00 83,774 0.00 49,953 0.00 48,971 0.00 124,455 34.70 121,908 34.00 44,830 12.50 43,901 12.30Total 5,051,581 334.00 3,888,643 334.00 2,820,986 195.20 2,226,861 195.20 5,159,017 885.50 4,493,608 780.00 1,834,154 307.30 1,638,562 283.00

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 130.40 691,856 85.00 296,776 43.40 207,173 26.10 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 119,001 22.90 119,001 22.90 1,611,755 317.40 1,367,159 262.40 426,458 83.70 357,978 67.50 1,090,399 154.80 557,254 79.10Heating 342,179 68.60 351,383 67.50 1,149,208 274.76 1,206,138 332.38 385,624 79.40 409,192 94.90 3,682,508 656.20 1,653,362 101.50Cooling 1,738 0.00 804 0.00 210,454 10.70 156,249 7.50 202,251 0.00 165,950 0.00 283,800 15.30 201,385 10.20Aux. 971 0.20 971 0.20 167,410 17.90 155,760 16.50 484 0.10 486 0.10 239,657 25.50 197,218 21.00Ventilation 41,496 8.10 39,447 7.70 172,572 19.70 118,494 13.20 91,598 11.90 91,318 11.70 577,284 65.90 270,034 25.80Refrig. 284,332 35.30 284,483 35.20 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 44,917 12.50 44,032 12.30 511,389 45.80 500,905 44.80 195,656 17.50 191,620 17.20 296,152 57.90 290,241 56.70Total 927,864 166.20 913,338 160.40 4,764,765 816.66 4,196,560 761.78 1,598,847 236.00 1,423,716 217.50 8,428,526 1287.00 5,175,185 570.80

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 6.70 248,361 5.40 101,137 2.20 82,388 1.80 317,018 6.90 255,877 5.60Plug 407,922 57.90 208,485 29.60 86,751 1.20 86,751 1.20 28,777 0.40 28,777 0.40 74,542 1.00 74,542 1.00Heating 975,559 167.20 664,773 96.30 1,190,059 0.00 1,178,224 0.00 407,506 0.00 402,096 0.00 1,347,744 0.00 1,342,822 0.00Cooling 75,953 0.00 63,750 0.00 32,472 0.00 28,165 0.00 12,053 0.00 10,547 0.00 32,037 0.00 27,596 0.00Aux. 1,942 0.40 495 0.00 918 0.20 935 0.20 917 0.20 921 0.20 918 0.20 935 0.20Ventilation 143,664 16.40 132,276 15.10 89,912 0.00 89,912 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,583 0.00 103,583 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 111,406 21.80 109,163 21.30 62,817 0.00 61,553 0.00 20,808 0.00 20,443 0.00 62,090 0.00 60,832 0.00Total 2,602,152 385.80 1,976,139 272.20 1,768,678 8.10 1,693,901 6.80 601,694 2.80 575,668 2.40 1,937,931 8.10 1,866,186 6.80


End-Use



End-Use



End-Use



End-Use


Base Case

4-10

Table 4-11 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,391,949 143.50 1,391,949 143.50 813,244 83.90 813,244 83.90 3,082,817 615.70 2,865,949 572.40 1,110,176 221.70 1,031,327 206.00Plug 885,186 62.10 885,186 62.10 517,358 36.30 517,358 36.30 556,848 107.10 468,430 90.10 198,969 38.30 167,435 32.20Heating 1,946,343 826.30 1,078,015 86.50 1,170,248 488.30 645,945 87.10 800,266 41.30 573,523 76.90 300,579 41.30 243,396 36.30Cooling 510,071 73.80 155,742 15.30 214,365 21.60 72,575 4.20 198,802 13.20 215,985 0.00 94,317 0.00 74,882 0.00Aux. 267,081 48.80 142,290 31.60 73,279 12.70 43,285 10.40 157,425 22.10 1,213 0.20 1,213 0.20 1,210 0.20Ventilation 501,706 103.80 358,120 11.10 295,397 60.70 209,891 11.20 459,057 69.00 318,245 55.90 130,058 22.00 118,284 20.50Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 93,439 0.00 91,538 0.00 54,636 0.00 53,498 0.00 135,852 23.70 133,045 23.20 48,902 8.50 47,903 8.30Total 5,595,774 1258.30 4,102,840 350.10 3,138,526 703.50 2,355,796 233.10 5,391,067 892.10 4,576,388 818.70 1,884,213 332.00 1,684,437 303.50

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 150.50 691,856 87.80 296,776 51.70 207,173 27.30 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 119,001 22.90 119,001 22.90 1,611,755 336.10 1,367,159 267.10 426,458 91.50 357,978 69.40 1,090,399 154.80 557,254 79.10Heating 375,732 70.70 379,100 66.90 1,816,174 482.72 1,916,219 568.62 577,275 144.80 605,595 164.80 4,864,082 1079.60 2,183,922 322.30Cooling 479 0.00 141 0.00 116,140 8.60 84,170 6.30 94,913 0.00 61,381 0.00 129,796 10.70 109,727 8.00Aux. 1,215 0.20 1,215 0.20 144,095 16.00 134,611 14.90 607 0.10 608 0.10 181,488 20.30 162,407 18.00Ventilation 40,472 7.90 38,423 7.50 169,068 19.30 116,433 13.20 93,287 11.70 93,121 11.50 567,648 64.80 262,816 26.50Refrig. 286,780 34.80 286,765 34.80 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 49,046 8.50 48,018 8.40 558,454 49.90 547,052 48.90 213,631 19.10 209,291 18.70 323,371 39.40 316,648 38.60Total 965,955 163.60 945,879 155.30 5,357,663 1063.12 4,857,499 1006.82 1,702,946 318.90 1,535,148 291.80 9,415,510 1681.00 5,598,466 769.00

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 6.70 248,361 5.40 101,137 2.20 82,388 1.80 317,018 6.90 255,877 5.60Plug 407,922 57.90 208,485 29.60 86,751 3.00 86,751 3.00 28,777 1.00 28,777 1.00 74,542 2.60 74,542 2.60Heating 1,314,867 303.30 1,031,587 260.50 1,549,403 0.00 1,529,582 0.00 532,266 0.00 523,908 0.00 1,749,634 0.00 1,737,262 0.00Cooling 20,516 0.00 15,600 0.00 9,418 0.00 7,656 0.00 3,711 0.00 3,063 0.00 8,251 0.00 6,690 0.00Aux. 2,430 0.40 646 0.00 1,102 0.20 1,111 0.20 1,096 0.20 1,104 0.20 1,102 0.20 1,110 0.20Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,649 0.00 89,649 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,320 0.00 103,320 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 121,566 14.80 119,133 14.50 68,452 0.00 67,050 0.00 22,701 0.00 22,185 0.00 67,583 0.00 66,184 0.00Total 2,894,042 514.60 2,302,295 429.30 2,110,523 9.90 2,030,160 8.60 720,184 3.40 691,921 3.00 2,321,449 9.70 2,244,984 8.40

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 18,039 3.60 14,672 2.90 226,418 45.20 177,387 35.40 103,220 20.60 128,029 25.60Plug 145,377 28.00 144,901 27.90 258,744 49.80 258,744 49.80 26,852 5.20 31,534 6.10Heating 32,867 15.80 27,505 13.50 674,277 129.90 680,798 122.90 82,713 23.80 127,204 103.10Cooling 20,076 3.30 8,131 0.00 6,054 0.00 2,697 0.00 11,481 0.00 12,078 0.00Aux. 575 0.20 1,197 0.20 1,187 0.20 1,212 0.20 533 0.10 382 0.00Ventilation 13,320 2.60 12,295 2.40 82,480 16.10 78,894 15.40 17,072 2.70 10,728 3.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 589,860 71.60 589,886 71.60 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 8,673 1.50 8,673 1.50 128,270 22.40 125,685 21.90 6,878 1.20 9,050 1.60Total 238,927 55.00 217,375 48.40 1,967,290 335.20 1,915,304 317.20 248,749 53.60 319,006 139.50

End-Use



End-Use



End-Use



End-Use


Base Case

4-11

Table 4-12 Regional and System Peak-Coincident Dates and Times*

Note: The estimates of regional and system peak-coincident dates and times were provided by BC Hydro’s Load Forecast Department. System peaks for all regions and the BC Hydro system occurred in December of that year at the times indicated on the table.

4.3 Saturation-Weighted End Use Unit-Level Results

Fuel saturations were applied to the end use unit-level results to obtain the saturation-weighted end use shares. These end use shares were then allocated proportionately to the control totals to derive the aggregated base cases for each sector. The saturations for the residential end uses are shown in Table 4-13. The saturations for the commercial end uses are shown in Table 4-14. Appendix D and Appendix E provide the complete annual and monthly saturation-weighted unit-level results for the regional peak and the overall system peak, respectively.

We note the following concerning the saturations:

• The electric heating and water heater saturations for the residential dwelling types were derived from the household units, fuel share and saturation percentages from the CPR report. The data for all of the vintages and prototypes in the CPR report were averaged to obtain a representative saturation for each residential dwelling type modeled in this analysis.

• The plug load saturations for the residential sector were derived by taking a weighted average of the fuel share and saturation data for all of the appliances (except water heaters) analyzed in the CPR report.

• The residential cooling saturations were obtained from the 2003 Residential End Use Study.

• The heating, water heater and cooling saturations for the commercial sector were obtained from the CPR report.

• The refrigerator saturations were obtained from EPRI’s Energy Market Profile commercial reports.

Month Date Time Date Time Date Time Date Time Date TimeJan January 6, 2004 18:00 January 4, 2004 18:00 January 27, 2004 18:00 January 5, 2004 9:00 January 5, 2004 18:00Feb February 2, 2004 19:00 February 2, 2004 12:00 February 2, 2004 18:00 February 16, 2004 19:00 February 2, 2004 18:00Mar March 3, 2004 19:00 March 5, 2004 9:00 March 3, 2004 20:00 March 5, 2004 10:00 March 3, 2004 19:00Apr April 1, 2003 20:00 April 3, 2003 8:00 April 24, 2003 18:00 April 1, 2003 19:00 April 7, 2003 18:00May May 16, 2003 11:00 May 16, 2003 8:00 May 1, 2003 9:00 May 6, 2003 9:00 May 16, 2003 11:00Jun June 6, 2003 15:00 June 3, 2003 8:00 June 27, 2003 14:00 June 27, 2003 14:00 June 27, 2003 14:00Jul July 30, 2003 14:00 July 7, 2003 11:00 July 30, 2003 18:00 July 30, 2003 18:00 July 30, 2003 14:00Aug August 18, 2003 14:00 August 18, 2003 12:00 August 8, 2003 18:00 August 28, 2003 17:00 August 18, 2003 13:00Sep September 2, 2003 17:00 September 15, 2003 19:00 September 25, 2003 21:00 September 3, 2003 17:00 September 30, 2003 20:00Oct October 30, 2003 19:00 October 31, 2003 8:00 October 16, 2003 19:00 October 31, 2003 9:00 October 30, 2003 19:00Nov November 21, 2003 18:00 November 5, 2003 20:00 November 21, 2003 18:00 November 26, 2003 18:00 November 21, 2003 18:00Dec December 15, 2003 18:00 December 30, 2003 18:00 December 11, 2003 20:00 December 30, 2003 18:00 December 30, 2003 18:00

BC Hydro System-WideLower Mainland Northern Region Southern InteriorVancouver Island

Base Case

4-12

• Plug load saturations for the commercial sectors were set to 100% except for the building types that would have some gas cooking such as restaurant, hospital, school, etc. For these building types, the plug load saturations were set to 75% based on industry estimates.

• The same saturations were used for both Southern Interior and Northern Region except for residential cooling saturations that were available for each region.

Table 4-13 Residential Saturations

Dwelling TypeLower

MainlandVancouver

IslandSouthern Interior

Northern Region

Single FamilyLighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug1 100% 100% 100% 100%Heating 22% 60% 17% 17%Cooling 8% 8% 48% 5%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%WH 16% 65% 30% 33%Exterior Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%

Multi Family Low Rise Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 75% 80% 73% 73%Heating 35% 45% 33% 33%Cooling 8% 8% 48% 5%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%WH 9% 25% 11% 11%Exterior Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%

Multi Family High RiseLighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 80% 80% 80% 80%Heating 40% 45% 44% 44%Cooling 8% 8% 48% 5%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%WH 10% 25% 17% 17%Exterior Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%

Mobile HomeLighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 97% 100% 92% 92%Heating 50% 40% 17% 17%Cooling 8% 8% 48% 5%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%WH 60% 70% 60% 70%Exterior Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%1. Values rounded to 100% however saturation surveys indicate values slightlygrater than 100% for this dwelling type and end-use.

Base Case

4-13

Table 4-14 Commercial Saturations

Dwelling TypeLower

MainlandVancouver

IslandSouthern Interior

Northern Region

Large Office Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 100% 100% 100% 100%Heating 5% 22% 10% 10%Cooling 90% 90% 90% 90%Aux. 90% 90% 90% 90%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 45% 45% 45% 45%W H 30% 30% 25% 25%

Medium Office Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 100% 100% 100% 100%Heating 10% 20% 20% 20%Cooling 90% 90% 90% 90%Aux. 90% 90% 90% 90%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 25% 25% 25% 25%W H 30% 30% 30% 30%

Large Retail Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 100% 100% 100% 100%Heating 5% 9% 5% 5%Cooling 88% 88% 88% 88%Aux. 88% 88% 88% 88%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 52% 52% 52% 52%W H 50% 50% 40% 40%

Medium Retail Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 100% 100% 100% 100%Heating 5% 6% 12% 12%Cooling 83% 83% 83% 83%Aux. 83% 83% 83% 83%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 52% 52% 52% 52%W H 50% 50% 50% 50%

Grocery Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 75% 75% 75% 75%Heating 10% 12% 10% 10%Cooling 90% 90% 90% 90%Aux. 90% 90% 90% 90%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 99% 99% 99% 99%W H 20% 20% 20% 20%

Large Hotel Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 75% 75% 75% 75%Heating 10% 19% 90% 90%Cooling 85% 85% 85% 85%Aux. 85% 85% 85% 85%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 59% 59% 59% 59%W H 5% 19% 90% 90%

Medium Hotel Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 75% 75% 75% 75%Heating 20% 41% 10% 10%Cooling 45% 45% 45% 45%Aux. 45% 45% 45% 45%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 59% 59% 59% 59%W H 20% 41% 15% 15%

Hospital Lighting 100% 100% 100% 100%Plug 75% 75% 75% 75%Heating 0% 2% 1% 1%Cooling 85% 85% 85% 85%Aux. 85% 85% 85% 85%Ventilation 100% 100% 100% 100%Refrig. 90% 90% 90% 90%W H 0% 2% 0% 0%

Base Case

4-14

Table 4-14 (Continued) Commercial Saturations

Table 4-15 through Table 4-18 present the saturation-weighted unit level results for the residential sector. Table 4-19 through Table 4-22 present the saturation-weighted unit level results for the commercial sectors. These weighted unit level results were used to derive the end use shares that were applied proportionately to the control total numbers for the residential and commercial sectors.

D w ellin g T yp eL o w er

M a in lan dV an co u ver

Is lan dS o u th ern

In terio rN o rth ern R eg io n

N ursing L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 75% 75% 75% 75%H ea ting 15% 10% 1% 1%C oo ling 45% 45% 45% 45%A ux . 45% 45% 45% 45%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 82% 82% 82% 82%W H 10% 10% 5% 5%

Large S choo l L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 75% 75% 75% 75%H ea ting 10% 15% 10% 10%C oo ling 10% 10% 10% 10%A ux . 10% 10% 10% 10%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 66% 66% 66% 66%W H 10% 13% 10% 10%

M edium S choo l L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 75% 75% 75% 75%H ea ting 5% 13% 7% 7%C oo ling 10% 10% 10% 10%A ux . 10% 10% 10% 10%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 66% 66% 66% 66%W H 10% 13% 10% 10%

C ollege L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 75% 75% 75% 75%H ea ting 3% 6% 5% 5%C oo ling 3% 3% 3% 3%A ux . 3% 3% 3% 3%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 27% 27% 27% 27%W H 10% 10% 10% 10%

R estauran t L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 75% 75% 75% 75%H ea ting 0% 15% 0% 0%C oo ling 78% 78% 78% 78%A ux . 78% 78% 78% 78%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 97% 97% 97% 97%W H 10% 15% 10% 10%

W arehouse L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 100% 100% 100% 100%H ea ting 0% 0% 10% 10%C oo ling 30% 30% 30% 30%A ux . 30% 30% 30% 30%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 31% 31% 31% 31%W H 5% 5% 10% 10%

S m a ll C om m erc ia l L igh ting 100% 100% 100% 100%P lug 100% 100% 100% 100%H ea ting 12% 25% 20% 20%C oo ling 80% 80% 80% 80%A ux . 80% 80% 80% 80%V entila tion 100% 100% 100% 100%R efrig . 5% 5% 5% 5%W H 15% 25% 10% 10%

Base Case

4-15

Table 4-15 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower Mainland

Table 4-16 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Vancouver Island

Table 4-17 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Southern Interior

Table 4-18 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,052 0.45 2,503 0.55 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,371 0.25 1,584 0.25Plug 5,220 0.68 5,725 0.78 1,568 0.28 1,526 0.27 1,670 0.30 1,625 0.29 3,218 0.39 3,404 0.44Heating 1,945 1.19 1,712 1.20 750 0.81 505 0.67 847 0.93 610 0.79 3,032 1.83 2,359 1.78Cooling 52 0.00 76 0.00 5 0.00 6 0.00 4 0.00 5 0.00 0 0.00 46 0.00WH 542 0.13 527 0.13 258 0.02 249 0.02 274 0.02 265 0.02 2,415 0.21 2,351 0.21Exterior/Co 274 0.00 274 0.00 329 0.00 329 0.00 762 0.16 718 0.14 329 0.00 329 0.00Total 10,085 2.45 10,817 2.66 4,068 1.31 3,730 1.16 4,716 1.61 4,339 1.44 10,364 2.67 10,073 2.67

End-Use

Single Family Multi-Family Low-Rise Multi-Family High-Rise Manufactured HousingExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,390 0.45 2,921 0.55 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,371 0.25 1,584 0.25Plug 4,742 0.69 5,344 0.79 1,668 0.30 1,623 0.29 1,673 0.30 1,629 0.29 3,329 0.40 3,523 0.45Heating 5,564 3.00 4,770 2.58 843 0.70 543 0.49 833 0.72 578 0.53 2,164 1.32 1,630 1.10Cooling 57 0.00 85 0.00 4 0.00 6 0.00 3 0.00 5 0.00 0 0.00 42 0.00WH 2,557 0.52 2,483 0.52 726 0.06 701 0.06 726 0.06 701 0.06 2,833 0.25 2,750 0.25Exterior/Co 319 0.00 319 0.00 329 0.00 329 0.00 749 0.12 706 0.09 329 0.00 329 0.00Total 15,630 4.66 15,923 4.44 4,728 1.25 4,317 1.03 5,143 1.39 4,734 1.17 10,025 2.22 9,857 2.05

End-Use


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,382 0.45 2,733 0.50 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,159 0.20 1,116 0.20 1,371 0.25 1,584 0.25Plug 3,672 0.69 4,071 0.74 1,516 0.27 1,476 0.26 1,672 0.30 1,627 0.29 3,050 0.37 3,227 0.41Heating 2,282 0.92 1,915 0.91 1,041 0.68 731 0.54 1,399 0.91 1,040 0.75 1,326 0.57 1,083 0.57Cooling 879 0.00 946 0.00 204 0.00 207 0.00 187 0.00 199 0.00 558 0.00 655 0.00WH 1,175 0.24 1,140 0.24 319 0.03 308 0.03 492 0.04 475 0.04 2,479 0.21 2,400 0.21Exterior/Co 311 0.00 312 0.00 329 0.00 329 0.00 836 0.15 779 0.12 329 0.00 329 0.00Total 10,701 2.30 11,118 2.39 4,568 1.18 4,166 1.03 5,745 1.60 5,236 1.40 9,112 1.39 9,277 1.44

End-Use


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,441 0.40 2,797 0.45 1,159 0.18 1,116 0.17 1,159 0.18 1,116 0.17 1,371 0.20 1,584 0.25Plug 3,764 0.58 4,167 0.69 1,516 0.24 1,476 0.23 1,672 0.26 1,627 0.26 3,050 0.32 3,227 0.37Heating 3,169 1.22 2,788 1.17 1,415 0.71 1,069 0.61 1,900 0.97 1,513 0.85 1,816 0.71 1,555 0.68Cooling 31 0.00 37 0.00 3 0.00 4 0.00 3 0.00 3 0.00 18 0.00 22 0.00WH 1,481 0.27 1,431 0.27 351 0.03 340 0.03 542 0.04 524 0.04 3,196 0.25 3,085 0.25Exterior/Co 319 0.10 319 0.10 329 0.10 329 0.10 891 0.25 828 0.23 329 0.10 329 0.10Total 11,204 2.57 11,540 2.68 4,773 1.26 4,332 1.13 6,166 1.71 5,611 1.55 9,779 1.58 9,801 1.64

End-Use


Base Case

4-16

Table 4-19 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Lower Mainland


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 116.10 691,856 80.00 296,776 37.40 207,173 24.10 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 89,251 17.18 89,251 17.18 1,208,816 228.08 1,025,369 190.80 319,843 58.65 268,484 48.15 817,799 116.10 417,940 59.33Heating 32,328 7.11 33,531 6.97 82,784 30.39 93,212 34.31 53,965 17.12 60,406 19.16 0 0.00 0 0.00Cooling 507 0.00 125 0.00 119,207 6.97 87,908 5.44 62,109 0.00 44,217 0.00 131,581 10.63 114,290 7.82Aux. 858 0.18 858 0.18 125,274 13.60 117,551 12.84 213 0.05 215 0.05 182,267 20.32 163,476 18.02Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,691 13.20 90,698 11.70 90,557 11.40 562,392 64.20 237,864 27.20Refrig. 294,419 34.95 294,906 34.95 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 8,823 2.44 8,644 2.38 25,159 1.59 24,647 1.55 38,501 2.42 37,714 2.38 0 0.00 0 0.00Total 558,865 88.15 538,440 83.65 2,671,408 415.92 2,157,234 338.14 862,105 127.34 708,765 105.24 3,952,765 522.64 2,939,263 388.87

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 40.10 248,361 32.60 101,137 13.30 82,388 10.80 317,018 41.60 255,877 33.50Plug 305,942 43.43 156,364 22.20 65,063 9.08 65,063 9.08 21,583 3.00 21,583 3.00 55,906 7.80 55,906 7.80Heating 101,397 25.88 54,833 17.09 93,866 71.53 93,836 70.17 16,110 12.41 16,040 12.15 32,191 24.25 32,383 23.91Cooling 12,549 0.00 9,684 0.00 1,596 0.00 1,294 0.00 622 0.00 518 0.00 393 0.00 309 0.00Aux. 858 0.18 228 0.00 92 0.02 93 0.02 92 0.02 92 0.02 28 0.01 28 0.01Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 34.00 89,386 34.00 30,234 11.50 30,234 11.50 103,057 39.20 103,057 39.20Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 10,940 2.00 10,704 1.95 6,089 0.00 5,974 0.00 2,023 0.00 1,984 0.00 6,013 0.00 5,898 0.00Total 1,458,427 209.68 1,158,657 165.94 561,840 154.73 504,007 145.87 171,800 40.23 152,838 37.47 514,606 112.86 453,457 104.42

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 18,039 3.60 14,672 2.90 226,418 45.20 177,387 35.40 103,220 20.60 128,029 25.60Plug 109,033 21.00 108,676 20.93 258,744 49.80 258,744 49.80 26,852 5.20 31,534 6.10Heating 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 2,573 1.14 1,781 0.00Cooling 17,344 2.64 7,817 0.00 2,525 0.00 1,152 0.00 12,210 0.00 15,149 0.00Aux. 356 0.16 736 0.16 281 0.06 286 0.06 333 0.08 257 0.08Ventilation 12,808 2.50 11,783 2.30 81,968 16.00 78,894 15.40 13,318 2.40 8,611 1.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 186,426 22.14 186,737 22.14 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 785 0.22 785 0.22 5,769 1.59 5,649 1.56 932 0.26 1,225 0.33Total 158,364 30.11 144,469 26.50 762,131 134.79 708,850 124.36 159,438 29.68 186,587 33.11

Existing NewSmall Com. (Small Retail)

ExistingEnd-Use

Restaurant WarehouseNew Existing New

Existing New Existing NewMedium School College/University

End-Use

Nursing Home Large SchoolExisting New Existing New

Existing New Existing NewMedium Hotel Hospital

End-Use

Grocery Store Large HotelExisting New Existing New

Existing New Existing NewLarge Retail Medium Retail

End-Use

Large Office Medium OfficeExisting New Existing New

Base Case

4-17

Table 4-20 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Vancouver Island


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 130.40 691,856 85.00 296,776 43.40 207,173 26.10 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 89,251 17.18 89,251 17.18 1,208,816 238.05 1,025,369 196.80 319,843 62.78 268,484 50.63 817,799 116.10 417,940 59.33Heating 38,448 8.84 40,063 8.68 146,865 57.37 167,610 67.03 102,664 35.96 115,784 41.37 53,992 16.30 10,752 4.68Cooling 445 0.00 100 0.00 107,271 6.72 81,026 5.53 56,405 0.00 37,577 0.00 139,035 12.16 118,004 8.84Aux. 881 0.18 881 0.18 120,732 13.09 115,513 12.67 219 0.05 220 0.05 189,013 21.08 167,068 18.28Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,434 13.20 89,983 11.10 90,403 11.40 561,516 64.10 230,648 27.70Refrig. 291,103 34.75 291,664 34.75 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 8,847 2.44 8,659 2.38 95,919 8.44 93,948 8.27 79,183 6.97 77,560 6.81 5,832 1.05 5,713 1.03Total 561,652 89.69 541,743 85.16 2,789,773 473.26 2,291,757 388.48 945,073 160.25 797,201 136.35 4,025,913 542.19 2,955,818 396.35

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 6.70 248,361 5.40 101,137 2.20 82,388 1.80 317,018 6.90 255,877 5.60Plug 305,942 43.43 156,364 22.20 65,063 0.90 65,063 0.90 21,583 0.30 21,583 0.30 55,906 0.75 55,906 0.75Heating 65,774 21.83 35,304 16.04 132,935 0.00 133,154 0.00 39,396 0.00 39,296 0.00 60,861 0.00 61,354 0.00Cooling 9,113 0.00 6,819 0.00 1,493 0.00 1,194 0.00 577 0.00 476 0.00 352 0.00 274 0.00Aux. 881 0.18 242 0.00 91 0.02 91 0.02 90 0.02 91 0.02 27 0.01 27 0.01Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 0.00 89,386 0.00 30,234 0.00 30,234 0.00 103,057 0.00 103,057 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 10,963 1.98 10,745 1.94 7,926 0.00 7,776 0.00 2,626 0.00 2,576 0.00 6,021 0.00 5,905 0.00Total 1,419,414 205.62 1,136,319 164.88 602,641 7.62 545,026 6.32 195,642 2.52 176,642 2.12 543,242 7.66 482,400 6.36

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 18,039 3.60 14,672 2.90 226,418 45.20 177,387 35.40 103,220 20.60 128,029 25.60Plug 109,033 21.00 108,676 20.93 258,744 49.80 258,744 49.80 26,852 5.20 31,534 6.10Heating 2,271 1.58 1,887 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 4,269 2.95 2,559 0.00Cooling 17,200 2.71 7,585 0.00 2,433 0.00 964 0.00 11,561 0.00 13,700 0.00Aux. 343 0.16 749 0.16 286 0.06 293 0.06 341 0.08 258 0.08Ventilation 12,808 2.50 11,783 2.30 81,968 16.00 78,894 15.40 13,094 2.40 8,557 1.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 184,352 22.02 184,718 21.99 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 1,169 0.33 1,169 0.33 5,785 1.59 5,668 1.56 1,550 0.43 2,038 0.55Total 160,862 31.87 146,521 27.98 759,987 134.67 706,670 124.21 160,888 31.66 186,675 33.33

End-Use



End-Use



End-Use



End-Use


Base Case

4-18

Table 4-21 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Southern Interior

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,391,949 251.20 1,391,949 251.20 813,244 146.80 813,244 146.80 3,082,817 615.70 2,865,949 572.40 1,110,176 221.70 1,031,327 206.00Plug 885,186 82.80 885,186 82.80 517,358 48.40 517,358 48.40 556,848 107.10 468,430 90.10 198,969 38.30 167,435 32.20Heating 130,164 0.00 73,283 0.00 156,908 0.00 87,727 0.00 21,748 0.84 15,401 1.27 20,522 1.43 15,994 1.34Cooling 557,318 0.00 235,688 0.00 265,792 0.00 133,403 0.00 296,189 13.39 343,531 0.00 143,951 0.00 115,002 0.00Aux. 248,762 0.00 147,890 0.00 64,437 0.00 40,144 0.00 152,843 21.53 849 0.18 800 0.17 800 0.17Ventilation 491,520 0.00 368,711 0.00 288,971 0.00 215,822 0.00 446,766 71.30 335,721 57.90 133,701 22.70 122,249 21.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 21,409 0.00 20,943 0.00 14,986 0.00 14,691 0.00 49,782 13.88 48,763 13.60 22,415 6.25 21,951 6.15Total 3,726,309 334.00 3,123,649 334.00 2,121,696 195.20 1,822,389 195.20 4,606,993 843.73 4,078,645 735.45 1,630,537 290.54 1,474,757 266.96

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 130.40 691,856 85.00 296,776 43.40 207,173 26.10 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 89,251 17.18 89,251 17.18 1,208,816 238.05 1,025,369 196.80 319,843 62.78 268,484 50.63 817,799 116.10 417,940 59.33Heating 34,218 6.86 35,138 6.75 1,034,287 247.28 1,085,524 299.14 38,562 7.94 40,919 9.49 36,825 6.56 16,534 1.02Cooling 1,564 0.00 724 0.00 178,886 9.10 132,811 6.38 91,013 0.00 74,677 0.00 241,230 13.01 171,177 8.67Aux. 874 0.18 874 0.18 142,298 15.22 132,396 14.03 218 0.05 219 0.05 203,709 21.68 167,635 17.85Ventilation 41,496 8.10 39,447 7.70 172,572 19.70 118,494 13.20 91,598 11.90 91,318 11.70 577,284 65.90 270,034 25.80Refrig. 281,488 34.95 281,639 34.85 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 8,983 2.50 8,806 2.46 460,250 41.22 450,814 40.32 29,348 2.63 28,743 2.58 0 0.00 0 0.00Total 551,106 88.36 529,095 83.71 4,139,087 700.96 3,637,265 654.86 867,359 128.69 711,533 100.54 4,135,572 534.64 3,049,013 389.16

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 6.70 248,361 5.40 101,137 2.20 82,388 1.80 317,018 6.90 255,877 5.60Plug 305,942 43.43 156,364 22.20 65,063 0.90 65,063 0.90 21,583 0.30 21,583 0.30 55,906 0.75 55,906 0.75Heating 9,756 1.67 6,648 0.96 119,006 0.00 117,822 0.00 28,525 0.00 28,147 0.00 67,387 0.00 67,141 0.00Cooling 34,179 0.00 28,688 0.00 3,247 0.00 2,817 0.00 1,205 0.00 1,055 0.00 961 0.00 828 0.00Aux. 874 0.18 223 0.00 92 0.02 93 0.02 92 0.02 92 0.02 28 0.01 28 0.01Ventilation 143,664 16.40 132,276 15.10 89,912 0.00 89,912 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,583 0.00 103,583 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 5,570 1.09 5,458 1.07 6,282 0.00 6,155 0.00 2,081 0.00 2,044 0.00 6,209 0.00 6,083 0.00Total 1,385,690 184.87 1,126,853 149.23 589,350 7.62 530,224 6.32 185,119 2.52 165,805 2.12 551,092 7.66 489,446 6.36

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 18,039 3.60 14,672 2.90 226,418 45.20 177,387 35.40 103,220 20.60 128,029 25.60Plug 109,033 21.00 108,676 20.93 258,744 49.80 258,744 49.80 26,852 5.20 31,534 6.10Heating 0 0.00 0 0.00 60,557 12.31 62,261 12.13 9,751 1.42 14,055 0.00Cooling 19,531 2.79 10,851 0.00 3,895 0.00 2,366 0.00 16,106 0.00 18,173 0.00Aux. 357 0.16 746 0.16 288 0.06 291 0.06 348 0.08 256 0.08Ventilation 13,320 2.60 12,295 2.40 85,554 16.70 80,943 15.80 15,543 2.60 10,505 1.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 178,243 22.11 178,330 22.11 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 797 0.22 797 0.22 11,752 3.28 11,513 3.21 631 0.18 829 0.23Total 161,076 30.37 148,037 26.60 825,452 149.46 771,836 138.51 172,451 30.08 203,382 33.11

End-Use



End-Use



End-Use



End-Use


Base Case

4-19

Table 4-22 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,391,949 143.50 1,391,949 143.50 813,244 83.90 813,244 83.90 3,082,817 615.70 2,865,949 572.40 1,110,176 221.70 1,031,327 206.00Plug 885,186 62.10 885,186 62.10 517,358 36.30 517,358 36.30 556,848 107.10 468,430 90.10 198,969 38.30 167,435 32.20Heating 194,634 82.63 107,802 8.65 234,050 97.66 129,189 17.42 40,013 2.07 28,676 3.85 36,069 4.96 29,208 4.36Cooling 459,064 66.42 140,167 13.77 192,928 19.44 65,318 3.78 173,952 11.55 188,986 0.00 77,811 0.00 61,778 0.00Aux. 240,373 43.92 128,061 28.44 65,951 11.43 38,956 9.36 137,747 19.34 1,061 0.18 1,000 0.17 998 0.17Ventilation 501,706 103.80 358,120 11.10 295,397 60.70 209,891 11.20 459,057 69.00 318,245 55.90 130,058 22.00 118,284 20.50Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 23,360 0.00 22,884 0.00 16,391 0.00 16,049 0.00 54,341 9.48 53,218 9.28 24,451 4.25 23,951 4.15Total 3,696,271 502.37 3,034,169 267.56 2,135,318 309.43 1,790,005 161.96 4,504,775 834.23 3,924,565 731.70 1,578,536 291.37 1,432,981 267.37

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 93,231 18.60 73,216 14.60 941,977 150.50 691,856 87.80 296,776 51.70 207,173 27.30 2,258,726 311.40 2,005,692 276.50Plug 89,251 17.18 89,251 17.18 1,208,816 252.08 1,025,369 200.33 319,843 68.63 268,484 52.05 817,799 116.10 417,940 59.33Heating 37,573 7.07 37,910 6.69 1,634,557 434.45 1,724,597 511.76 57,728 14.48 60,560 16.48 48,641 10.80 21,839 3.22Cooling 431 0.00 127 0.00 98,719 7.31 71,545 5.36 42,711 0.00 27,622 0.00 110,327 9.10 93,268 6.80Aux. 1,094 0.18 1,094 0.18 122,481 13.60 114,419 12.67 273 0.05 273 0.05 154,265 17.26 138,046 15.30Ventilation 40,472 7.90 38,423 7.50 169,068 19.30 116,433 13.20 93,287 11.70 93,121 11.50 567,648 64.80 262,816 26.50Refrig. 283,912 34.45 283,898 34.45 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 9,809 1.70 9,604 1.68 502,609 44.91 492,347 44.01 32,045 2.87 31,394 2.81 0 0.00 0 0.00Total 555,773 87.08 533,521 82.28 4,678,226 922.14 4,236,565 875.12 842,662 149.42 688,626 110.18 3,957,406 529.45 2,939,602 387.65

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 885,705 122.10 797,197 109.90 305,748 6.70 248,361 5.40 101,137 2.20 82,388 1.80 317,018 6.90 255,877 5.60Plug 305,942 43.43 156,364 22.20 65,063 2.25 65,063 2.25 21,583 0.75 21,583 0.75 55,906 1.95 55,906 1.95Heating 13,149 3.03 10,316 2.61 154,940 0.00 152,958 0.00 37,259 0.00 36,674 0.00 87,482 0.00 86,863 0.00Cooling 9,232 0.00 7,020 0.00 942 0.00 766 0.00 371 0.00 306 0.00 248 0.00 201 0.00Aux. 1,094 0.18 291 0.00 110 0.02 111 0.02 110 0.02 110 0.02 33 0.01 33 0.01Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,649 0.00 89,649 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,320 0.00 103,320 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 6,078 0.74 5,957 0.73 6,845 0.00 6,705 0.00 2,270 0.00 2,219 0.00 6,758 0.00 6,618 0.00Total 1,362,236 185.58 1,106,791 150.23 623,298 8.97 563,613 7.67 193,226 2.97 173,776 2.57 570,765 8.86 508,818 7.56

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 18,039 3.60 14,672 2.90 226,418 45.20 177,387 35.40 103,220 20.60 128,029 25.60Plug 109,033 21.00 108,676 20.93 258,744 49.80 258,744 49.80 26,852 5.20 31,534 6.10Heating 0 0.00 0 0.00 67,428 12.99 68,080 12.29 16,543 4.76 25,441 20.62Cooling 15,559 2.56 6,301 0.00 1,816 0.00 809 0.00 9,185 0.00 9,662 0.00Aux. 446 0.16 928 0.16 356 0.06 364 0.06 426 0.08 305 0.00Ventilation 13,320 2.60 12,295 2.40 82,480 16.10 78,894 15.40 17,072 2.70 10,728 3.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 179,907 21.84 179,915 21.84 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 867 0.15 867 0.15 12,827 2.24 12,568 2.19 688 0.12 905 0.16Total 157,263 30.06 143,740 26.53 829,977 148.23 776,762 136.98 173,986 33.46 206,605 55.58

End-Use



End-Use



End-Use



End-Use


Base Case

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4.4 Aggregated Base Case Results

Table 4-23 presents the total base case energy and peak demand by region and sector. Table 4-24 shows the base case by rate class. Table 4-24 includes the sales for the Lower Mainland transmission-level facilities that are classified as commercial sector sales for this assessment.

The peak demand for each region represents each region’s coincident peak demand (or regional maximum peak value). The system total in the tables represents the system coincident peak demand. The regional maximum peak demands occur at different times in the month than the BC Hydro system peak, therefore the regional peak numbers do not add up to the system peak demand. As noted in Section 4.1.1, the numbers in the tables represent BC Hydro’s distribution-level sales and a small portion of the transmission sales, not the entire system sales.

Annual base case energy consumption grows from 34,005 GWh in FY 2005 to 40,878 GWh in FY 2016, an annual rate of approximately 1.7%. Peak demand is projected to grow at an average of 1.6% annually over the assessment period, increasing from 7,029 MW in FY 2005 to 8,348 MW in FY 2016.

Table 4-23 Base Case Energy and Peak Demand

Region/Sector FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy Demand

Lower MainlandResidential 8,325 9,502 10,474 2,279 2,540 2,745 42% 57%Commercial 11,547 12,894 13,989 1,699 1,890 2,040 58% 43%Total 19,872 22,396 24,463 3,978 4,430 4,785 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandResidential 4,127 4,628 5,087 1,204 1,327 1,439 62% 72%Commercial 2,730 2,883 3,133 476 524 569 38% 28%Total 6,857 7,511 8,220 1,680 1,851 2,008 100% 100%

Southern InteriorResidential 1,737 1,907 2,051 556 596 636 49% 66%Commercial 1,876 1,990 2,157 282 302 322 51% 34%Total 3,613 3,897 4,208 838 898 958 100% 100%

Northern RegionResidential 1,508 1,615 1,717 343 362 387 43% 53%Commercial 2,155 2,166 2,270 310 327 349 57% 47%Total 3,663 3,781 3,987 653 689 736 100% 100%

System Total*Residential 15,697 17,652 19,329 4,305 4,741 5,116 47% 61%Commercial 18,308 19,933 21,549 2,725 2,998 3,232 53% 39%Total 34,005 37,585 40,878 7,029 7,739 8,348 100% 100%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.

Energy (GWH) Demand (MW) % of FY 2011 Total

Base Case

4-21

Table 4-24 Base Case by Rate Class

Region/Rate FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy Demand

Lower MainlandResidential 8,325 9,502 10,474 2,279 2,540 2,745 42% 57%General - Under 35 kW 2,351 2,632 2,857 345 385 416 12% 9%General - 35 kW & Over 8,846 9,900 10,749 1,299 1,448 1,564 44% 33%Transmission 350 363 383 55 57 60 2% 1%Total 19,872 22,396 24,463 3,978 4,430 4,785 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandResidential 4,127 4,628 5,087 1,204 1,327 1,439 62% 72%General - Under 35 kW 710 750 815 124 136 148 10% 7%General - 35 kW & Over 2,020 2,133 2,318 352 388 421 28% 21%Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Total 6,857 7,511 8,220 1,680 1,851 2,008 100% 100%

Southern InteriorResidential 1,737 1,907 2,051 556 596 636 49% 66%General - Under 35 kW 469 498 539 71 76 81 13% 8%General - 35 kW & Over 1,407 1,493 1,618 212 227 242 38% 25%Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Total 3,613 3,897 4,208 838 898 958 100% 100%

Northern RegionResidential 1,508 1,615 1,717 343 362 387 43% 53%General - Under 35 kW 453 455 477 65 69 73 12% 10%General - 35 kW & Over 1,702 1,711 1,793 245 258 276 45% 38%Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Total 3,663 3,781 3,987 653 689 736 100% 100%

System TotalResidential 15,697 17,652 19,329 4,305 4,741 5,116 47% 61%General - Under 35 kW 3,951 4,305 4,657 587 647 698 11% 8%General - 35 kW & Over 14,007 15,265 16,510 2,082 2,294 2,474 41% 30%Transmission 350 363 383 55 57 60 1% 1%Total 34,005 37,585 40,878 7,029 7,739 8,348 100% 100%


Base Case

4-22

4.5 Residential Sector

Table 4-25 presents the total residential base case energy and demand by dwelling type. Table 4-26 shows the total residential base case energy and demand by end use. The table shows that the demand for heating, plug loads and lighting represents a large portion of the peak demand for the residential sector. The detailed results for each region and dwelling type at the regional peak level are provided in Appendix F. Appendix G provides the detailed results at the system level.

Table 4-25 Base Case Energy and Demand by Dwelling Type– Residential Sector

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy DemandLower Mainland

Single Family 5,925 6,692 7,316 1,591 1,756 1,881 70% 69%MF Low Rise 1,284 1,512 1,707 371 426 471 16% 17%MF High Rise 782 924 1,047 228 262 291 10% 10%Mfg Housing 334 375 404 90 98 102 4% 4%Total 8,325 9,502 10,474 2,279 2,540 2,745 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandSingle Family 3,311 3,728 4,112 956 1,056 1,150 81% 80%MF Low Rise 389 427 460 122 132 140 9% 10%MF High Rise 139 157 173 44 49 54 3% 4%Mfg Housing 288 316 342 82 90 96 7% 7%Total 4,127 4,628 5,087 1,204 1,327 1,439 100% 100%

Southern InteriorSingle Family 1,275 1,399 1,508 406 435 464 73% 73%MF Low Rise 132 145 156 45 48 52 8% 8%MF High Rise 48 53 58 16 18 19 3% 3%Mfg Housing 283 309 330 90 95 100 16% 16%Total 1,737 1,907 2,051 556 596 636 100% 100%

Northern RegionSingle Family 1,107 1,185 1,262 250 264 282 73% 73%MF Low Rise 114 123 130 28 29 31 8% 8%MF High Rise 41 45 48 10 11 12 3% 3%Mfg Housing 246 262 276 55 58 61 16% 16%Total 1,508 1,615 1,717 343 362 387 100% 100%

System Total*Single Family 11,617 13,004 14,198 3,144 3,446 3,709 74% 73%MF Low Rise 1,919 2,207 2,453 559 628 686 13% 13%MF High Rise 1,010 1,179 1,326 295 336 372 7% 7%Mfg Housing 1,151 1,262 1,352 307 330 349 7% 7%Total 15,697 17,652 19,329 4,305 4,741 5,116 100% 100%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.


Base Case

4-23

Table 4-26 Base Case Energy and Demand by End Use – Residential Sector


Lighting 1,808 2,096 2,335 386 435 473 22% 17%Plug 3,942 4,508 4,974 575 644 698 47% 25%Heating 1,617 1,799 1,948 1,195 1,325 1,427 19% 52%Cooling 33 39 44 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 523 594 652 100 110 118 6% 4%Exterior 402 466 520 22 25 28 5% 1%Total 8,325 9,502 10,474 2,279 2,540 2,745 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandLighting 672 767 854 127 144 158 17% 11%Plug 1,283 1,453 1,609 194 217 239 31% 16%Heating 1,333 1,469 1,595 756 825 888 32% 62%Cooling 13 15 17 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 702 784 859 124 137 149 17% 10%Exterior 124 139 153 4 4 4 3% 0%Total 4,127 4,628 5,087 1,204 1,327 1,439 100% 100%

Southern InteriorLighting 369 409 443 105 113 121 21% 19%Plug 590 651 703 159 171 183 34% 29%Heating 355 383 406 233 249 265 20% 42%Cooling 129 143 154 0 0 0 7% 0%Water Heating 230 251 269 57 61 65 13% 10%Exterior 64 70 75 1 2 2 4% 0%Total 1,737 1,907 2,051 556 596 636 100% 100%

Northern RegionLighting 311 336 359 51 54 58 21% 15%Plug 496 534 570 75 80 86 33% 22%Heating 405 430 453 165 173 184 27% 48%Cooling 4 4 4 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 239 254 269 35 37 40 16% 10%Exterior 54 58 61 17 18 19 4% 5%Total 1,508 1,615 1,717 343 362 387 100% 100%

System TotalLighting 3,160 3,608 3,992 705 787 856 20% 17%Plug 6,310 7,146 7,856 1,056 1,173 1,273 40% 25%Heating 3,710 4,081 4,403 2,201 2,405 2,582 23% 51%Cooling 178 201 220 0 0 0 1% 0%Water Heating 1,694 1,884 2,049 315 345 371 11% 7%Exterior 643 733 809 27 31 34 4% 1%Total 15,697 17,652 19,329 4,305 4,741 5,116 100% 100%


Base Case

4-24

4.6 Commercial Sector

Table 4-27 presents the total commercial base case energy and demand by building type. Table 4-28 presents the base case energy and demand by end use. As shown in the table, the demand for lighting, plug load and ventilation, followed by heating represent a significant portion of the total peak demand. The detailed results for each region and building type at the regional peak level are provided in Appendix F. Detailed results for the system peak level are provided in Appendix G.

Table 4-27 Base Case Energy and Demand by Building Type– Commercial Sector


Large Office 1,470 1,599 1,683 232 252 266 12% 13%Medium Office 295 324 343 46 51 54 3% 3%Large Retail 900 1,031 1,120 140 160 174 8% 8%Medium Retail 234 270 295 37 43 46 2% 2%Grocery 280 313 339 36 41 44 2% 2%Large Hotel 216 243 259 30 34 36 2% 2%Medium Hotel 89 100 106 13 14 15 1% 1%Hospital 238 260 278 28 31 33 2% 2%Nursing Home 35 41 45 5 6 6 0% 0%Large School 264 293 317 50 55 59 2% 3%Medium School 108 118 127 20 22 24 1% 1%College 468 502 528 81 87 91 4% 5%Restaurant 279 310 334 34 37 40 2% 2%Warehouse 389 437 468 59 67 72 3% 4%Small Commercial 3,773 4,265 4,696 547 610 664 33% 32%Misc. Commercial 2,509 2,788 3,050 341 380 414 22% 20%Total 11,547 12,894 13,989 1,699 1,890 2,040 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandLarge Office 167 176 191 33 36 39 6% 7%Medium Office 64 67 73 13 14 15 2% 3%Large Retail 175 184 200 33 37 40 6% 7%Medium Retail 72 76 82 14 15 17 3% 3%Grocery 128 135 147 20 22 24 5% 4%Large Hotel 25 27 29 5 5 6 1% 1%Medium Hotel 30 31 34 6 6 7 1% 1%Hospital 68 72 79 10 11 12 3% 2%Nursing Home 16 17 18 3 3 3 1% 1%Large School 56 59 64 13 14 16 2% 3%Medium School 42 45 48 10 11 12 2% 2%College 81 86 93 17 19 20 3% 4%Restaurant 73 77 84 11 12 13 3% 2%Warehouse 38 40 43 7 8 8 1% 1%Small Commercial 1,231 1,300 1,413 205 226 245 45% 43%Misc. Commercial 465 491 534 77 85 92 17% 16%Total 2,730 2,883 3,133 476 524 569 100% 100%


Base Case

4-25

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy DemandSouthern Interior

Large Office 32 34 37 5 5 6 2% 2%Medium Office 29 31 33 5 5 5 2% 2%Large Retail 111 117 127 17 19 20 6% 6%Medium Retail 40 43 46 6 7 7 2% 2%Grocery 64 68 74 8 9 10 3% 3%Large Hotel 20 22 24 4 4 4 1% 1%Medium Hotel 17 18 19 2 3 3 1% 1%Hospital 27 29 31 3 4 4 1% 1%Nursing Home 2 2 3 0 0 0 0% 0%Large School 61 64 70 11 12 13 3% 4%Medium School 39 41 44 7 8 9 2% 3%College 26 27 30 4 5 5 1% 2%Restaurant 33 35 38 4 4 5 2% 1%Warehouse 15 16 17 2 3 3 1% 1%Small Commercial 821 871 944 122 131 139 44% 43%Misc. Commercial 539 572 620 79 84 90 29% 28%Total 1,876 1,990 2,157 282 302 322 100% 100%

Northern RegionLarge Office 37 37 38 6 6 6 2% 2%Medium Office 33 33 35 5 5 6 2% 2%Large Retail 127 128 134 19 20 22 6% 6%Medium Retail 46 46 49 7 7 8 2% 2%Grocery 74 74 78 9 10 10 3% 3%Large Hotel 23 24 25 4 4 4 1% 1%Medium Hotel 19 19 20 3 3 3 1% 1%Hospital 31 31 33 4 4 4 1% 1%Nursing Home 3 3 3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1% 0.1%Large School 70 70 73 13 13 14 3% 4%Medium School 44 45 47 8 9 9 2% 3%College 30 30 31 5 5 6 1% 2%Restaurant 38 38 40 4 5 5 2% 1%Warehouse 17 17 18 3 3 3 1% 1%Small Commercial 577 580 607 81 86 92 27% 26%Misc. Commercial 986 991 1,039 139 147 157 46% 45%Total 2,155 2,166 2,270 310 327 349 100% 100%


FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy DemandSystem Total*

Large Office 1,705 1,846 1,950 274 298 316 9% 10%Medium Office 420 455 484 68 74 79 2% 2%Large Retail 1,312 1,460 1,581 207 233 252 7% 8%Medium Retail 392 435 472 63 71 77 2% 2%Grocery 546 591 638 73 80 87 3% 3%Large Hotel 285 315 336 42 47 50 2% 2%Medium Hotel 155 168 180 23 26 27 1% 1%Hospital 365 393 421 45 49 53 2% 2%Nursing Home 56 63 69 8 9 10 0% 0%Large School 450 486 524 85 93 100 2% 3%Medium School 233 248 267 45 49 52 1% 2%College 605 645 682 106 114 121 3% 4%Restaurant 423 460 496 52 58 62 2% 2%Warehouse 459 511 547 71 80 86 3% 3%Small Commercial 6,402 7,015 7,660 939 1,035 1,122 35% 35%Misc. Commercial 4,499 4,842 5,242 623 682 738 24% 23%Total 18,308 19,933 21,549 2,725 2,998 3,232 100% 100%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.


Base Case

4-26

Table 4-28 Base Case Energy and Demand by End Use – Commercial Sector


Lighting 6,349 7,131 7,774 1,064 1,189 1,289 55% 63%Plug 2,375 2,665 2,896 340 380 411 21% 20%Heating 218 240 259 81 88 93 2% 5%Cooling 813 893 959 10 10 10 7% 1%Auxiliary 243 259 272 13 14 15 2% 1%Ventilation 1,181 1,291 1,379 149 161 171 10% 9%Refrigeration 265 299 325 26 30 33 2% 2%Water Heating 102 115 125 15 17 19 1% 1%Total 11,547 12,894 13,989 1,699 1,890 2,040 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandLighting 1,534 1,624 1,771 309 343 374 56% 65%Plug 518 549 598 89 99 108 19% 19%Heating 96 101 109 26 26 27 4% 5%Cooling 171 179 193 3 3 3 6% 1%Auxiliary 38 40 42 4 4 4 1% 1%Ventilation 259 271 289 30 32 34 9% 6%Refrigeration 82 87 95 10 11 12 3% 2%Water Heating 31 33 36 6 7 7 1% 1%Total 2,730 2,883 3,133 476 524 569 100% 100%

Southern InteriorLighting 1,023 1,087 1,182 186 201 215 55% 66%Plug 322 341 370 52 56 59 17% 18%Heating 108 115 126 11 12 12 6% 4%Cooling 145 153 165 2 2 2 8% 1%Auxiliary 26 27 28 3 3 3 1% 1%Ventilation 188 197 210 21 22 22 10% 7%Refrigeration 45 48 53 5 5 6 2% 2%Water Heating 19 21 23 3 3 3 1% 1%Total 1,876 1,990 2,157 282 302 322 100% 100%

Northern RegionLighting 1,152 1,158 1,216 179 188 201 53% 58%Plug 375 377 395 55 58 62 17% 18%Heating 177 178 187 31 34 38 8% 10%Cooling 97 97 101 5 5 5 4% 2%Auxiliary 38 38 39 5 5 5 2% 2%Ventilation 228 229 237 26 27 29 11% 8%Refrigeration 59 60 63 6 6 7 3% 2%Water Heating 29 30 31 3 3 3 1% 1%Total 2,155 2,166 2,270 310 327 349 100% 100%

System TotalLighting 10,058 11,000 11,943 1,813 1,998 2,156 55% 67%Plug 3,590 3,932 4,259 534 590 636 20% 20%Heating 599 634 681 86 91 98 3% 3%Cooling 1,226 1,323 1,419 19 25 30 7% 1%Auxiliary 346 364 381 24 25 26 2% 1%Ventilation 1,857 1,988 2,116 175 187 197 10% 6%Refrigeration 451 494 535 46 51 56 2% 2%Water Heating 182 199 215 28 31 34 1% 1%Total 18,308 19,933 21,549 2,725 2,998 3,232 100% 100%


5-1

5 CAPACITY REDUCTION MEASURES

This section describes the entire framework used to assess capacity reduction measure (CRM) savings, costs, and other attributes – one measure at a time. For those CRMs that passed the applicability and qualitative screens, information was assembled to reflect equipment performance, incremental costs, and equipment lifetimes. The framework that we utilized for the CRM Assessment is outlined in Figure 5-1.

Figure 5-1 Approach for Capacity Reduction Measure Characterization

The analytical framework for developing the CRM savings assessment for the residential and commercial sectors is an extension of the frameworks described for the base case development. To assess the CRM savings, we developed “change cases” relative to the base case prototypes. The entire processed used to assess the CRM savings is described in the following sections.

Costs

Equipment Life

Descriptions

FINAL MEASURE CHARACTERIZATION

Estimate Measure Impacts

by End UseResidential & Commercial

BEST prototypes

Measure Data Development

Applicability & Qualitative Screen

Universal Measure List

Measure Identification

Costs

Equipment Life

Descriptions

FINAL MEASURE CHARACTERIZATION

Estimate Measure Impacts

by End UseResidential & Commercial

BEST prototypes

Measure Data Development

Applicability & Qualitative Screen

Universal Measure List

Measure Identification


5-2

5.1 Capacity Reduction Measure Selection Process

The first step of the CRM savings assessment is to compile a list of capacity reduction measures that are available. This “universal” list of measures is described in more detail in Section 5.2. We then obtain a subset of measures from the universal list of measures that are relevant for implementation in British Columbia. We use an applicability and qualitative screening process to obtain this subset. The screening process is described in more details in Section 5.3.

5.2 Universal List of Capacity Reduction Measures

Appendix H provides a tabular listing of the universal list of capacity reduction measures. The tables are separated by sector (residential and commercial). In total, there were 210 measures included in the universal list of CRMs. Table 5-1 summarizes the number of CRMs by sector.

Table 5-1 Number of CRMs in the Universal List

Sector Number of CRMs

Residential 104

Commercial 106

TOTAL 210

5.3 Capacity Reduction Measures Screen

There are three sections to the CRM screen. The first is the measure type section, which identifies whether the measure has potential for conservation and capacity reduction or capacity reduction only. The second is the applicability screen, which determines whether each measure is within the purview of this study. If a measure was determined to be within the purview of this study, it was further subjected to the qualitative screen. The qualitative screen assesses the appropriateness of each measure to the unique market conditions in British Columbia. Measures that failed the applicability screen were not included any further in the analysis. The entire CRM screen is located in Appendix I.

5.3.1 Applicability Screen of CRMs

The purpose of the applicability screen is to determine whether each measure is within the purview of this study. Three screening criteria were defined. If it was determined that any of the three criteria applied to a measure, the measure was excluded from the measure level analysis.

• Measure from CPR 2002 Study: If the measure was included in the CPR 2002 study, it was excluded from this assessment to avoid any overlap with measures identified in the CPR 2002 study.


5-3

• Not a Good Match for British Columbia: If a measure is considered to be irrelevant or not a good match to British Columbia’s particular conditions (e.g. cold climate, low number of cooling degree days, etc.), then it is not considered for measure-level analysis.

• Non-Verifiable Savings: If the costs and impacts of the measure cannot be quantified such that an economic evaluation is both possible and reasonable, then the measure is not suitable for measure level analysis and is not considered any further in this study. Often, savings cannot be verified because they are too site-specific and, therefore, must be evaluated on a site-by-site basis. It should be noted that many of these measures may be suitable for customized programs.

Any measure that was determined to possess any of the three characteristics was eliminated from further consideration, and thus was not subjected to the qualitative screen that followed.

5.3.2 Qualitative Screen of CRMs

The purpose of the qualitative screen is to assess the appropriateness of each measure to the unique market conditions that might be expected in British Columbia. There are four qualitative screen criteria, each of which are described as follows:

• Technological Maturity: Is the technology currently available commercially? If not, will the technology be commercially available within the 10-year time period that is covered under this study? Only technically mature or emerging technologies are retained for further analysis.

• Market Maturity: Is the technology currently supported by the necessary service industry? If not, will the required support industry be commercially available within the 10-year time period that is covered under this study? Is the market already saturated such that there is no further need for market incentives to promote implementation?

• Customer Acceptance: Does the measure reduce the quality of energy service equipment to the point that customers are unwilling to install it in important markets? For example, early low-flow showerheads had spray characteristics that were so unlike what customers were used to, they were not well liked by customers, and thus market penetration was initially very low.

• Non-Energy Benefits: Does the measure provide additional value to the customer besides reducing energy consumption? Does the measure provide any beneficial environmental or community impacts that might enhance the quality of life? Does the measure improve the efficiency of the industrial process?

In the qualitative screen tables, each measure was awarded one of three possible scores for each criterion. This scoring scheme provides some flexibility and allows measures with positive scores to override negative scores, rather than the measure being completely eliminated due to a single negative score. The three scores awarded are as follows:

• A plus sign (“+”) is awarded where the measure’s characteristics are highly positive or give it a distinct advantage for the given criteria. For example, attic fans in the residential electric market receive a “+” score for technological maturity. This is because attic fans are a more


5-4

mature technology, thus consumers and utilities, alike, can be confident in not implementing a measure that will soon be technologically “out-of-date.”

• No symbol is an indication of a “neutral” score. The measure has neither advantages nor disadvantages over other measures for the given criteria.

• A negative sign (“–”) is awarded where the measure’s characteristics are strongly negative or create a distinct disadvantage for the given criteria. For example, microwave clothes dryers in the residential electric market receive a “–” score for technological maturity. This is due to the fact that prototype microwave dryers, that were thought a few years ago to be a technology of the future, were found to have significant incompatibility problems with metal zippers, metallic fabrics, and other metal objects in clothing. Thus, the technology is not currently available.

Again, measures that were previously determined in the applicability screen to be either a measure from the CPR 2002 study, not a good match or have non-verifiable savings, are not suitable for further analysis.

5.3.3 Passing the Applicability and Qualitative Screens

For each measure passing the applicability screen, the numbers of plus scores and minus scores are counted and then compared. If the number of pluses is at least as great as the count of minuses, then the measure passes the qualitative screen. Measures passing both the applicability and qualitative screens are indicated with a “Yes,” while those that fail either the applicability or qualitative screen receive a “No.” Note that a measure that receives a minus for market maturity will always receive either a “neutral” or a minus in the other three qualitative screen categories, and thus will always fail the screen.

Three residential electric measures provide examples of this scoring method.

• Cycling control device for air conditioners receive two pluses; thus, it passes the screen.

• High pressure sodium lamps receive one plus and one minus; thus, it passes the screen.

• Duct heat recovery for clothes dryers receives a single minus; thus, it fails the screen.

5.3.4 CRM Screen Results

The results of the CRM screen are summarized in Table 5-2. In total, 55 measures representing 26% of measures from the universal list of measures passed the screen and thus were characterized in greater detail as part of this study.


5-5

Table 5-2 Number of CRMs Passing the Applicability and Qualitative Screen

Sector Number of CRMs (Percent of Total CRMs)

Residential 26 (25%)

Commercial 29 (27%)

TOTAL 55 (26%)

5.4 CRM Characteristics

The DEEM database tables that have been tailored for British Columbia served as the basis for the CRM characteristic assessment. In addition, several data parameters were developed as part of this assessment.

• CRM Description: A brief technical description of the measure objectives, its performance, the building types where it is typically installed, and its market and technical applicability. This information can be found in Appendix J.

• Energy Impacts: Savings impacts represent the annual reduction in consumption (kWh of electricity) attributable to each of the specific measures. For the residential and commercial sectors, we relied on our extensive experience in the modeling of energy efficiency and capacity reduction measures in climates similar to British Columbia (i.e. the Pacific Northwest region) to determine the savings impacts. The potential savings impacts were developed in terms of a percentage of the building prototype baseline energy consumption (baseline development was described in Section 4 of this report). The Table 5-3 shows the energy savings potential for residential measures, and Table 5-4 shows the energy savings potential for commercial measures.7 We then used these percentages to determine the energy savings impacts of each CRM in each building prototype. A key benefit of the prototype modeling is that British Columbia specific-weather conditions were used to establish the baselines, and thus allowing the determination of British Columbia-specific potential savings impacts.

• Demand Impacts: Savings during the peak demand periods are specified for each CRM. To determine these peak demand savings, we employed the same process as that used to determine the energy impacts (described above). For the residential and commercial sectors, we relied on our extensive experience in the modeling of energy efficiency and capacity reduction measures in climates similar to British Columbia (i.e. the Pacific Northwest region) to determine the demand savings impacts. The potential savings impacts were developed in terms of a percentage of the building prototype baseline peak

7 Tables 5-3 and 5-4 show the ranges of probable energy savings in terms of percentage of the whole-building energy consumption or peak demand. Ranges of saving potential were developed to acknowledge the fact that actual savings will vary by building type and geographical region.


5-6

demand (baseline development was described in Section 4 of this report). The Table 5-3 shows the demand savings potential for residential measures, and Table 5-4 shows the demand savings potential for commercial measures.8 We then used these percentages to determine the demand impacts of each CRM in each building prototype. The demand savings were represented for the maximum summer (May through September) and winter (December) demand periods. The estimated date and time of the peak demand is the regional-coincident values presented in Table 4-12.

• Full Costs. This is the full cost of the high efficiency product. For this, we relied on a combination of our extensive library of equipment costs maintained through recent projects and proprietary vendor information made available through Global Energy Partners’ affiliation with EPRI.

• Incremental Costs. This is the cost difference between the standard efficiency product and the high efficiency product. For this, we relied on a combination of our extensive library of equipment costs maintained through recent projects and proprietary vendor information made available through Global Energy Partners’ affiliation with EPRI.

• Measure Lifetimes. These estimates were derived from the technical data and secondary data sources that support the CRM demand and energy savings analysis.

The CRM characteristic assessments for the residential and commercial sectors are provided in Appendices K and L, respectively.

8 Tables 5-3 and 5-4 show the ranges of probable energy savings in terms of percentage of the whole-building energy consumption or peak demand. Ranges of saving potential were developed to acknowledge the fact that actual savings will vary by building type and geographical region.


5-7

Table 5-3 Potential Savings and Costs of CRMs – Residential Measures

SEER=9.6 or lower SEER=10 $189.06 3-5% 0% 0.1-0.2% ASEER=10 SEER=10.8 $278.92 5-6% 0% 0.2-0.5% A

SEER=10.8 SEER=12 $270.72 7-10% 0% 0.3-0.5% ASEER=12 SEER=13 $348.65 5-6% 0% 0.3-0.5% ASEER=13 SEER=14 $479.40 3-5% 0% 0.3-0.5% ASEER=14 SEER=15 $1,278.39 0-3% 0% 0.1-0.2% ASEER=15 SEER=16 $1,278.39 0-3% 0% 0.1-0.2% ASEER=16 SEER=18 $1,534.07 0-5% 0% 0.0-0.2% A

Cooling Air Conditioner - Central, Cycling Control Device No Cycling Control Install Cycling Control Device $46.79 15-50% 0% N/A AEER=8.2 or lower EER=9.0 $103.41 3-5% 0% 0.1-0.3% A

EER=9.0 EER=9.8 $75.21 5-6% 0% 0.2-0.4% AEER=9.8 EER=10.2 $131.79 5-6% 0% 0.2-0.4% A

EER=10.2 EER=10.8 $543.64 1-3% 0% 0.1-0.3% AEER=10.8 EER=11 $362.43 0-2% 0% 0.1-0.2% AEER=11 EER=11.5 $906.07 0-2% 0% 0.1-0.2% A

Heating Boiler - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Heating Default Electric Heating System Install Gas Boiler System $88.25 0% 60-75% 20-43% BHeating Furnace - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Heating Default Electric Heating System Install Gas Furnace System $64.21 0% 60-75% 20-43% B

HVAC-Other Ducting, Insulation Existing Duct Insulation (R-3) New Duct Ins. (R-6) $148.56 2-5% 0.5-2% 0.5-2% AHVAC-Other Ducting, Repair and Sealing Existing Duct Condition Repair and Sealing $823.98 2-5% 0.5-2% 0.5-2% A

Lighting Fluorescent Torchieres 220 W Halogen Lamp 65 W CFL-based Lamp $38.46 0.5-1.5% 0-1% 0.5-1% ALighting High Pressure Sodium Lamps, Outdoors 150 W Incandescent 50 W HPS Lamp $81.73 0.5-1% 0.5-1% 0.5-1% AWater

Heating Pipe - Hot Water, Insulation No Pipe Insulation Install Insul.(R-4) $64.35 0-0.5% 0.5-1% 0.5-1% A

EF=0.83 or lower EF=0.86 $566.14 0-0.5% 0.2-0.4% 0.5-1.5% AEF=0.86 EF=0.90 $826.46 0-0.5% 0.3-0.5% 0.9-1.5% AEF=0.90 EF=0.92 $1,101.95 0-0.2% 0.1-0.3% 0.2-0.5% A

Water Heating Water Heater - Gas, Retrofit on Electric WH Default Electric Tank WH Install Gas Water Heater $296.57 20-40% 6-11% 18-36% B

Water Heating

Water Heater - Gas, Tankless, Retrofit on Electric WH Default Electric Tank WH Install Gas Tankless WH $268.16 20-40% 6-11% 18-36% B

Water Heating Water Heater, Thermostat Setback No T-Stat Setback Install Programmable Water

Heater T-Stat. $369.47 0.-0.5% 0.5-1% 1-3.5% A

Water Heating Water Heater, Cycling Control Device No Cycling Control Install Cycling Control Device $44.40 20-40% 6-11% N/A A

Water Heating Water Heater, Use Larger Tank Default Electric Tank WH Install Larger Capacity Tank WH $25.93 20-40% 6-11% N/A C

Appliances Clothes Dryer - Electric, High Efficiency Std. Clothes Dryer High-Efficiency Dryer $309.88 0% 1-1.5% 0.5-1% AAppliances Clothes Dryer - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Default Electric Dryer Install Gas Dryer $93.20 0% 11-17% 4-5% DAppliances Convection Oven - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Default Electric Oven Install Gas Convection Oven $86.08 0% 6-9% 0.5-1% DAppliances Induction Stovetop Std. Stovetop Induction Stovetop NA 0% 0% 0-0.2% AAppliances Range and Oven - Electric, Energy Star or bette Std. Range & Oven E-Star Range & Oven $188.68 0% 1-1.5% 0.4-0.8% AAppliances Range and Oven - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Default Electric Range & Oven Install Gas Range & Oven $276.52 0% 5-8% 3-4% D

Other Pool, Pump Timer No Pool Pump Timer Install Pool Pump Timer $1,591.58 1-1.5% 0% 1% AOther Home Energy Management System No Home EMS Install Home EMS $44.34 40-90% 70-90% N/A BOther Time-of-Use Meters No Time-of-Use Meter Install Time-of-Use Meter $54.81 5% 5% N/A EOther Real-Time Meters No Real-Time Meter Install Real-Time Meter $54.81 5% 5% N/A E

1. Costs reflected on a levelized basis, according ot the lifetime of the measure, using a discount rate of 8%.2. All percent savings are expressed in terms of "percent of total baseline building energy consumption" or "percent of total baseline building demand."

List of Sources:A Savings were derived from Global Energy Partners' previous potential studies for Washington state (DEEM and the Olympic Peninsula study).B Savings were derived using Global Energy Partners' Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST).C Savings were derived using Global Energy Partners' Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST) and additional engineering calculations.D Savings were derived using appliance UEC data from EPRI's Energy Market Profiles and Global Energy Partners engineering calculations.E Savings were derived using Global Energy Partners' previous experience with demand response programs in California.

Electric Savings (kWh/yr)

Cooling Air Conditioner - Room, Energy Star or better

Efficiency LevelBaseline Level

Range of Possible Percent Savings [%]2

Source(see list

below this table)

End-Use Capacity Reduction Measure Summer Demand

(kW)

Winter Demand

(kW)

Water Heating Water Heater - Electric, High Efficiency

Cooling Air Conditioner - Central, Energy Star or better

Measure Cost

($/kW)1


5-8

Table 5-4 Potential Savings and Costs of CRMs – Commercial Measures

EER=8.5 or lower EER=8.9 $79.81 2.0-2.5% 0% 0.4-0.5% AEER=8.9 EER=10.1 $101.30 4.5-6.0% 0% 1.2-1.4% A

EER=10.1 EER=11.0 $146.33 2.5-4.0% 0% 0.7-1.5% ACooling Air Conditioner - Packaged, Maintenance No Maintenance Maintenance $35.00 6-8% 0% 1.6-1.9% A

EER=8.2 or lower EER=9.0 $42.80 0.164 0.000 115.000 AEER=9.0 EER=9.8 $48.74 0.144 0.000 101.000 AEER=9.8 EER=10.2 $118.16 0.104 0.000 73.000 A

EER=10.2 EER=10.8 $168.03 0.110 0.000 77.000 AEER=10.8 EER=11 $75.66 0.081 0.000 57.000 AEER=11 EER=11.5 $160.93 0.096 0.000 67.000 A

Cooling Air Conditioners, Direct Load Control (demand response)

No Direct Load Control Install Direct Load Control $3.52 12-24% 0% N/A B

Cooling Economizer, Installation (Central Systems) No Economizer Install Economizer $3,306.05 0% 0.0-0.7% 2.6-7.4% ACooling Economizer, Installation (Packaged Systems) No Economizer Install Economizer NA 0% 0% 1.8-2.7% A

Cooling Thermal Energy Storage - Cooling No Thermal Energy Storage Install Thermal Energy Storage NA 6-12% 0% N/A C

Heating Furnace - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Heating Default Electric Heating Install Gas Furnace $1.07 0% 25-90% 7-60% B

HVAC-Other Load Control Relay Switch (demand response) No Load Control Install Load Control Relay Switch $258.94 12-24% 0% N/A B

3-lamp 4 ft. T12 + Baseline fixture 2-lamp 4 ft. T12 + new reflector $99.79 2.5-4.0% 0.1-0.2% 1-4% A




Lighting Daylighting Controls, Outdoors No Daylighting Control Install Photocell Controller $95.66 0.100 0.100 91.250 A150 W Incandescent 50 W HPS Lamp NA 0.0-0.7% 0% 0.0-0.7% A200 W Incandescent 70 W HPS Lamp NA 0.0-0.7% 0% 0.0-0.7% A300 W Incandescent 100 W HPS Lamp NA 0.0-1.4% 0% 0.0-1.4% A

Lighting LED Traffic Lights Standard Incandescent Traffic Signal (Red, Yellow and Green)

LED Traffic Signal(Red, Yellow and Green) $528.86 0.080 0.080 701.000 A

Lighting Lighting, Automatic Controls (demand response) No Lighting Control System Install Automatic Lighting Control System $740.65 6-30% 6-37% N/A A

Lighting Lighting, Dimmer Control System (demand response) No Lighting Control System Install Lighting Control System w/

demand response capability $740.65 2-9% 2-11% N/A A

Lighting Lighting, Manual Override (demand response) No Manual Override Implement Manual Override $62.69 4-18% 4-22% N/A A

Lighting Outdoor Lighting - Photovoltaic, Installation (parking lots)

Standard High Pressure Sodium Lamp Fixture

CFL Fixture Powered by Photovoltaic $2,415.45 0.150 0.150 821.000 A

Lighting Task Lighting No Task Lighting Delamp and Install Task Lighting $221.99 2.9-4.8% 0.1-0.7% 1.3-5.3% A

Water Heating Pipe - Hot Water (SHW), Insulation No Pipe Insulation Install Insulation (R-4) NA <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% A

EF=0.96 or lower EF=0.98 NA <0.1% <0.1% 0-0.07% AEF=0.98 EF=1.0 NA <0.1% <0.1% 0-0.07% A

Water Heating Water Heater - Gas, Retrofit on Electric WH Default Electric Tank Water Heater Install Gas Tank Water Heater $135.97 0-8% 4-9% 3-5% A

Water Heating Water Heater - Gas, Tankless, Retrofit on Electric WH Default Electric Tank Water Heater Install Gas Tankless WH $60.81 0-8% 4-9% 3-5% A

Water Heating Water Heater, Heat Pump Standard Electric Water Heater

(EF=0.96) Install HP Water Heater (EF=2.0) NA <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% A

Water Heating Water Heater, Tank Blanket/Insulation No Tank Insulation Install Insul.(R-6.9) NA <0.1% <0.1% 0-0.07% A

Water Heating Water Heaters, Direct Load Control (demand response)

No Direct Load Control Install Direct Load Control $10.07 0-8% 4-9% N/A B

Other Energy Management System, Whole-Facility (demand response)

No EMS Install EMS w/ demand response capability $291.56 18-62% 10-46% N/A B

Other Hotel Guest Room Controls (occupancy detection) No Controls Install Guest Room Controls w/ occupancy detection NA 0.189 0.049 325.000 A

Other Vending Machine, High Efficiency Standard Vending Machine Install Vending Miser NA N/A N/A 1725.000 AOther Time-of-Use Meters (demand response) No Time-of-Use Meter Install Time-of-Use Meter $9.20 5% 5% N/A DOther Real-Time Meters (demand response) No Real-Time Meter Install Real-Time Meter $12.51 5% 5% N/A D

1. Costs reflected on a levelized basis, according ot the lifetime of the measure, using a discount rate of 8%. NA denotes that the measure was not assessed for technical potentialdue to it being screened out at the qualitative screening stage of the analysis.2. All values are in percents unless a percentage sign is not shown. All percent savings are expressed in terms of "percent of total baseline building energy consumption" or "percent of total baseline building demand."List of Sources:

End-Use Capacity Reduction Measure Efficiency LevelBaseline Level

Range of Possible Percent Savings [%]2

Source(see list below

this table)

Summer Demand

(kW)

Winter Demand

(kW)

Electric Savings (kWh/yr)

Measure Cost

($/kW)1

Water Heating Water Heater - Electric, High-Efficiency

Cooling Air Conditioner - Packaged, High-Efficiency

Cooling Air Conditioner - Room, Energy Star or Better

Lighting Fluorescent, Delamp and Install Reflectors

Lighting High-Pressure Sodium Lamps

A Savings were derived from Global Energy Partners' previous potential studies for Washington state (DEEM and the Olympic Peninsula study).B Savings were derived using Global Energy Partners' Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST).C Savings were derived using Global Energy Partners' Building Energy Simulation Tool (BEST) and additional engineering calculations.D Savings were derived using Global Energy Partners' previous experience with demand response programs in California.

6-1

6 TECHNICAL POTENTIAL

6.1 Technical Potential Approach

The technical potential analysis identified the end uses and market segments that have the potential to provide significant savings opportunities in each of the two sectors. Figure 6-1 illustrates the steps that were taken to estimate the technical potential. Beginning with the base case, an assessment was conducted by developing a variety of bundles representing the various capacity reduction measures identified in Chapter 5. Next, measure-specific applicability factors were developed. These factors take into account the technical limitations associated with many of the individual measures (e.g., availability of service, building size constraints, etc.) that are not typically accounted in the base case forecast. Next, an assessment of the measure-specific savings was conducted. These savings were derived from BEST model runs conducted in support of previous studies, and off-line technical assessments done for the individual measures. Finally, the unit-level percent savings were applied to the aggregate base case results to arrive at the capacity reduction potential.

Figure 6-1 Methodology for Capacity Reduction Technical Potential

Capacity ReductionTechnical Potential

Apply Unit-Level Savingsto Aggregate Base Case

Assess Measure-SpecificPercent Savings

Develop Measure-SpecificApplicability Factors

Assess Capacity ReductionMeasures for Potential Bundles

Base Case

Capacity ReductionTechnical Potential

Apply Unit-Level Savingsto Aggregate Base Case

Assess Measure-SpecificPercent Savings

Develop Measure-SpecificApplicability Factors

Assess Capacity ReductionMeasures for Potential Bundles

Base Case

Technical Potential

6-2

The broadest definition of technical potential assumes the total, instantaneous, and continuous conversion of all equipment to the technologies that provide maximum peak demand reduction in all market segments irrespective of the cost or age of existing equipment. For capacity reduction measures, the technical potential would equal a large portion of BC Hydro’s peak demand since, given enough cycling devices and load shifting technologies, the majority of electrical equipment in the BC Hydro service territory could be shutdown, disconnected, or shifted at the time of system peak.

6.1.1 End Use Modeling Approach

To support the technical potential assessment for the residential and commercial sectors, we utilized outputs from the BEST model to represent baseline energy usage and demand, at an end-use level before capacity reduction measures were introduced. Unlike the CRM characteristics assessment described in the previous chapter (which modeled measure-level impacts one measure at a time), the potential assessment had to be performed at a more aggregate level in order to avoid the possibility of double counting.

The process employed was to develop CRM bundles that represented a selection of the most probable measure installations in each of the building prototypes (from a technical standpoint, instead of economic or achievable). The measures that were selected for the technical potential bundles for each prototype are shown in Table 6-1 for the residential building types and Table 6-2 for the commercial building types. For example in Table 6-1, all the measures comprising the bundle for a single-family home are check-marked under the “SFAM” column. In selecting the measures that comprise the CRM bundles, we assume that the stock of equipment can be replaced with the capacity reduction measure that provides the maximum savings, as identified by the measure characteristic assessment (discussed in Section 5.4).

Technical Potential

6-3

Table 6-1 Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle – Residential Building Types 9

9 In this table, the following abbreviations were used: SFAM = single family home; MFLR = multi family low-rise; MFHR = multi family high-rise; MANH = manufactured housing. Also, the measure called “Water Heating, Use Larger Tank” is to be implemented in conjunction with the measure called “Water Heating, Cycling Control Device” (direct load control).

SFAM MANH MFLR MFHR Existing NewCooling Air Conditioner - Central, Energy Star or better Cooling Air Conditioner - Central, Cycling Control DeviceCooling Air Conditioner - Room, Energy Star or betterHeating Boiler - Gas, Retrofit on Electric HeatingHeating Furnace - Gas, Retrofit on Electric HeatingHVAC Ducting, InsulationHVAC Ducting, Repair and SealingLighting Fluorescent TorchieresLighting High Pressure Sodium Lamps, OutdoorsWater Heating Pipe - Hot Water, InsulationWater Heating Water Heater - Electric, High-EfficiencyWater Heating Water Heater - Gas, Retrofit on Electric WHWater Heating Water Heater - Gas, Tankless, Retrofit on Electric WHWater Heating Water Heater, Thermostat SetbackWater Heating Water Heater, Cycling Control DeviceWater Heating Water Heating, Use Larger TankAppliances Clothes Dryer - Electric, High EfficiencyAppliances Clothes Dryer - Gas, Retrofit on ElectricAppliances Convection Oven - Gas, Retrofit on ElectricAppliances Induction StovetopAppliances Range and Oven - Electric, Energy Star or betterAppliances Range and Oven - Gas, Retrofit on ElectricOther Home Energy Management System *Other Pool, Pump TimerOther Time-of-use MetersOther Real-Time MetersNotes: * This measure is not included because other measures in this list have already

captured impacts that are the same as a home energy management system.

Building Types VintageEnd Use Measure

Technical Potential

6-4

Table 6-2 Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle – Commercial Building Types 10

10 In this table, the following abbreviations were used: LOFF = large office; MOFF = medium office; LRET = large retail; MRET = medium retail; GROC = grocery store; LHOT = large hotel; MHOT = medium hotel; HOSP = hospital; NURS = nursing home; LSCH = large school; MSCH = medium school; COLL = college/university; REST = restaurant; WARE = warehouse; and SRET = small commercial (small retail).

LOFF MOFF LRET MRET GROC LHOT MHOT HOSP NURS LSCH MSCH COLL REST WARE SRET Existing NewCooling Air Conditioner - Packaged, High-EfficiencyCooling Air Conditioner - Packaged, MaintenanceCooling Air Conditioner - Room, Energy Star or Better *Cooling Air Conditioners, Direct Load Control Cooling Economizer, InstallationCooling Thermal Energy Storage - CoolingHeating Furnace - Gas, Retrofit on Electric HeatingHVAC Load Control Relay Switch Lighting Daylighting Controls, Outdoors *Lighting Fluorescent, Delamp and Install ReflectorsLighting High-Pressure Sodium LampsLighting LED Traffic Lights *Lighting Lighting, Automatic ControlsLighting Lighting, Dimmer Control SystemLighting Lighting, Manual OverrideLighting Outdoor Lighting - Photovoltaic, Installation *Lighting Task LightingWH Pipe - Hot Water, InsulationWH Water Heater - Electric, High-EfficiencyWH Water Heater - Gas, Retrofit on Electric WHWH WH - Gas, Tankless, Retrofit on Electric WHWH Water Heater, Heat PumpWH Water Heater, Tank Blanket/InsulationWH Water Heater, Direct Load ControlOther EMS, Whole-Facility **Other Hotel Guestroom Controls (occupancy)Other Real-Time MetersOther Time-of-use MetersOther Vending Machine, High Efficiency *Notes:

* These measures are not included because their effect on the entire building's energy consumption and demand is either negligible or not quantifiable.** This measure is not included because other measures in this list have already captured impacts that are the same as an energy management system.

Building Types VintageEnd Use Measure

Technical Potential

6-5

Once we define the CRM bundles, we apply all the measures in the bundles to the building prototype baselines (baselines were discussed in Section 4) in order to determine the technical potential for capacity reduction in each residential and commercial building type.

We used a process that involves the conversion of savings percentages at the whole-building level (from Table 5-3 and Table 5-4) to savings percentages at the end-use level for each of the measures comprising the CRM bundles.11 For certain measures, it is necessary to adjust the percent savings at the end-use level by applying an “applicability factor.” The applicability factors function as a multiplier to the percent savings at the end-use level to account for technical limitations that may not allow a measure to be implemented in every building within BC Hydro’s service territories. For example, it may not be technically possible to implement water heating fuel switching from electric to gas in every home because there may be physical constraints such as inaccessibility to piped gas or complications in the building’s construction. The applicability factors that were developed and used in this study are presented in Table 6-3 for the residential building types and Table 6-4 for the commercial building types. Finally, the adjusted savings percentages at the end-use level are then applied to the baseline end use shares for each building type to obtain the unit-level technical potential (the results of this step is discussed and presented in Section 6.1.2).

The residential and commercial technical potential models applied the unit-level technical potential savings to the aggregated base case end use shares. The unit-level savings percentages were calculated as the differences between the energy and demand at an end-use level before and after capacity reduction measures were introduced. Similar to the base case, the energy and demand savings were weighted by the saturation data for each end use. The end use savings percentages for existing buildings were applied to the existing base case end use stock, while the end use savings percentages for new buildings were applied to the new base case end use stock. The savings across the end uses were aggregated for each of the building types to obtain the final potential estimates for each of the perspectives.

11 For example, the data in Table 5-3 indicates that a water heater cycling control device can potentially reduce a home’s total summer peak electricity demand by approximately 30%. We would then convert this 30% of total building demand to a value such as 100% of water heating electric demand (since a cycling control device would completely shutoff the electric water heater during peak periods).

Technical Potential

6-6

Table 6-3 Applicability Factors of Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle – Residential Building Types 12

12 In this table, the following abbreviations were used: SFAM = single family home; MFLR = multi family low-rise; MFHR = multi family high-rise; MANH = manufactured housing. Also, the measure called “Water Heating, Use Larger Tank” is to be implemented in conjunction with the measure called “Water Heating, Cycling Control Device” (direct load control).

SFAM MANH MFLR MFHR Existing NewCooling Air Conditioner - Central, Energy Star or better 20% 20% 20% 20% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Cooling Air Conditioner - Central, Cycling Control Device 95% 95% 95% 95% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Cooling Air Conditioner - Room, Energy Star or better 80% 80% 80% 80% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Heating Boiler - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Heating * 5% 0% 0% 0% Yes (100%) No (0%)Heating Furnace - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Heating * 75% 80% 80% 80% Yes (100%) No (0%)HVAC Ducting, Insulation 20% 20% 20% 20% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)HVAC Ducting, Repair and Sealing 20% 20% 20% 20% Yes (100%) No (0%)Lighting Fluorescent Torchieres 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Lighting High Pressure Sodium Lamps, Outdoors 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Water Heating Pipe - Hot Water, Insulation 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%) Yes (100%)Water Heating Water Heater - Electric, High-Efficiency 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%) Yes (100%)Water Heating Water Heater - Gas, Retrofit on Electric WH * 60% 60% 60% 60% Yes (100%) No (0%)Water Heating Water Heater - Gas, Tankless, Retrofit on Electric WH * 20% 20% 20% 20% Yes (100%) No (0%)Water Heating Water Heater, Thermostat Setback 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%) Yes (100%)Water Heating Water Heater, Cycling Control Device 95% 95% 95% 95% No (0%) Yes (100%)Water Heating Water Heating, Use Larger Tank 95% 95% 95% 95% No (0%) Yes (100%)Appliances Clothes Dryer - Electric, High Efficiency 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%) Yes (100%)Appliances Clothes Dryer - Gas, Retrofit on Electric * 80% 80% 80% 80% Yes (100%) No (0%)Appliances Convection Oven - Gas, Retrofit on Electric * 80% 80% 80% 80% Yes (100%) No (0%)Appliances Induction Stovetop 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%) Yes (100%)Appliances Range and Oven - Electric, Energy Star or better 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%) Yes (100%)Appliances Range and Oven - Gas, Retrofit on Electric * 80% 80% 80% 80% Yes (100%) No (0%)Other Home Energy Management System 0% 0% 0% 0% No (0%) No (0%)Other Pool, Pump Timer 100% 0% 0% 0% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Other Time-of-use Meters 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)Other Real-Time Meters 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%) Yes (100%)

Notes: * It is assumed that generally only 80% of homeowners are able to implement fuel-switching measures because of the physical contraints of the building construction and/or limited access to piped gas.

Building Types Vintage Included?End Use Measure

Technical Potential

6-7

Table 6-4 Applicability Factors of Measures Selected for Technical Potential Bundle – Commercial Building Types 13

13 In this table, the following abbreviations were used: LOFF = large office; MOFF = medium office; LRET = large retail; MRET = medium retail; GROC = grocery store; LHOT = large hotel; MHOT = medium hotel; HOSP = hospital; NURS = nursing home; LSCH = large school; MSCH = medium school; COLL = college/university; REST = restaurant; WARE = warehouse; and SRET = small commercial (small retail).

LOFF MOFF LRET MRET GROC LHOT MHOT HOSP NURS LSCH MSCH COLL REST WARE SRET ExistingCooling Air Conditioner - Packaged, High-Efficiency 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% Yes (100%)Cooling Air Conditioner - Packaged, Maintenance 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% Yes (100%)Cooling Air Conditioner - Room, Energy Star or Better 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)Cooling Air Conditioners, Direct Load Control 0% 0% 0% 95% 0% 0% 95% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 0% 95% Yes (100%)Cooling Economizer, Installation 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Yes (100%)Cooling Thermal Energy Storage - Cooling 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Yes (100%)Heating Furnace - Gas, Retrofit on Electric Heating * 0% 0% 0% 75% 75% 0% 75% 0% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% Yes (100%)HVAC Load Control Relay Switch 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 0% 95% 0% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% Yes (100%)Lighting Daylighting Controls, Outdoors 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% No (0%)Lighting Fluorescent, Delamp and Install Reflectors 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)Lighting High-Pressure Sodium Lamps 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% Yes (100%)Lighting LED Traffic Lights 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% No (0%)Lighting Lighting, Automatic Controls 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Yes (100%)Lighting Lighting, Dimmer Control System 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)Lighting Lighting, Manual Override 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)Lighting Outdoor Lighting - Photovoltaic, Installation 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% No (0%)Lighting Task Lighting 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Yes (100%)WH Pipe - Hot Water, Insulation 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)WH Water Heater - Electric, High-Efficiency 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%)WH Water Heater - Gas, Retrofit on Electric WH * 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 75% 75% 75% 75% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% Yes (100%)WH WH - Gas, Tankless, Retrofit on Electric WH * 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Yes (100%)WH Water Heater, Heat Pump 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%)WH Water Heater, Tank Blanket/Insulation 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No (0%)WH Water Heater, Direct Load Control 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% No (0%)Other EMS, Whole-Facility 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% No (0%)Other Hotel Guestroom Controls (occupancy) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Yes (100%)Other Real-Time Meters 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)Other Time-of-use Meters 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Yes (100%)Other Vending Machine, High Efficiency 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% No (0%)

Notes: * It is assumed that generally only 75% of building owners/managers are able to implement fuel-switching measures because of the physical contraints of the building construction and/or limited access to piped gas.

Building Types Vintage InEnd Use Measure

Technical Potential

6-8

6.1.2 End Use Unit-Level Results

The unit-level end use results that were used to derive the technical potential for the residential and commercial sectors are presented in Table 6-5 through Table 6-8 and Table 6-9 through Table 6-12 respectively. These tables are similar to the tables presented in Section 4.2 for the baseline analysis. The notes located in Section 4.2 concerning the baseline tables are also applicable to the table in this section. If there is no change in value between the baseline and the technical potential unit energy consumption or peak demand, then this implies that there is no technical potential associated with that particular end-use. Appendix M and Appendix N provide the complete annual and monthly unit-level results for the regional peak and the overall system peak, respectively.

Table 6-5 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Lower Mainland

Table 6-6 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Vancouver Island

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,929 0.42 2,353 0.52 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,289 0.23 1,489 0.24Plug 4,451 0.49 4,950 0.59 1,960 0.29 1,918 0.29 1,960 0.29 1,918 0.29 2,955 0.30 3,170 0.36Heating 1,768 1.08 7,781 5.45 428 0.46 1,442 1.91 424 0.47 1,525 1.98 1,213 0.73 4,717 3.55Cooling 407 0.00 704 0.00 39 0.00 59 0.00 29 0.00 51 0.00 0 0.00 428 0.00WH 672 0.16 2,252 0.04 578 0.05 2,346 0.01 578 0.05 2,346 0.01 805 0.07 2,703 0.02Exterior/Common 129 0.00 129 0.00 260 0.00 266 0.00 602 0.05 581 0.04 154 0.00 154 0.00Total 9,357 2.15 18,170 6.60 4,354 0.98 7,083 2.40 4,682 1.04 7,475 2.51 6,416 1.33 12,662 4.16

Multi-Family High-RiseExisting New

Manufactured HousingExisting New

End-UseExisting New

Single Family Multi-Family Low-RiseExisting New


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-9

Table 6-7 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Southern Interior

Table 6-8 Residential Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,239 0.42 2,569 0.47 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,289 0.23 1,489 0.24Plug 3,074 0.49 3,456 0.55 1,960 0.29 1,918 0.29 1,960 0.29 1,918 0.29 2,955 0.30 3,170 0.36Heating 2,638 1.06 11,069 5.25 640 0.42 2,247 1.66 635 0.41 2,361 1.70 1,565 0.67 6,395 3.35Cooling 1,144 0.00 1,459 0.00 272 0.00 323 0.00 250 0.00 311 0.00 727 0.00 1,009 0.00WH 783 0.16 2,623 0.04 590 0.05 2,397 0.01 590 0.05 2,397 0.01 826 0.07 2,760 0.02Exterior/Common 146 0.00 147 0.00 260 0.00 266 0.00 661 0.05 631 0.04 154 0.00 154 0.00Total 10,024 2.13 21,323 6.31 4,811 0.94 8,205 2.15 5,185 0.99 8,672 2.23 7,516 1.27 14,978 3.96

End-Use



End-Use


Technical Potential

6-10

Table 6-9 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Lower Mainland

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 179.36 1,031,434 179.36 553,819 104.82 602,614 104.82 5,731,955 1315.59 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 66.07 885,186 66.07 517,358 38.62 517,358 38.62 1,202,227 136.47 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 622,956 0.00 327,678 0.00 383,052 0.00 199,606 0.00 206,882 28.30 106,074 27.10 16,630 3.25 48,239 12.10Cooling 399,278 0.00 153,467 0.00 182,886 0.00 78,594 0.00 403,656 31.30 234,956 0.00 102,802 0.00 82,296 0.00Aux. 222,208 0.00 137,328 0.00 62,614 0.00 42,955 0.00 321,293 51.70 953 0.20 953 0.20 953 0.20Ventilation 401,616 0.00 323,750 0.00 236,287 0.00 189,589 0.00 852,112 152.00 312,229 57.30 121,705 22.40 111,910 20.70Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 20,980 0.00 82,339 0.00 12,263 0.00 48,024 0.00 65,716 18.13 119,628 1.65 10,986 3.03 43,078 0.60Total 3,500,141 245.43 2,941,182 245.43 1,948,279 143.44 1,678,740 143.44 8,783,839 1733.48 3,732,779 705.66 1,411,237 271.60 1,350,133 256.39

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 82.90 473,921 57.12 190,827 26.70 133,212 17.21 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 119,001 14.47 119,001 14.77 1,611,755 279.47 1,367,159 234.30 426,458 66.94 357,978 53.80 1,090,399 90.87 557,254 47.70Heating 80,820 17.78 335,306 69.70 827,839 303.93 932,124 343.15 67,456 21.40 302,028 95.80 2,724,660 664.10 686,821 160.20Cooling 564 0.00 139 0.00 110,792 8.20 81,702 6.40 103,791 0.00 73,891 0.00 122,293 12.50 106,222 9.20Aux. 953 0.20 953 0.20 147,381 16.00 138,296 15.10 473 0.10 477 0.10 214,432 23.90 192,325 21.20Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,691 13.20 90,698 11.70 90,557 11.40 562,392 64.20 237,864 27.20Refrig. 297,393 35.30 297,885 35.30 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 11,029 3.05 43,219 0.60 125,793 7.93 492,931 1.55 48,127 3.03 188,571 0.60 72,714 13.28 284,845 2.60Total 629,386 96.97 898,111 142.47 3,669,975 717.61 3,602,824 670.82 927,830 129.87 1,146,714 178.90 6,259,579 1168.72 3,627,765 539.07

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 12.63 193,474 14.25 65,941 4.19 64,180 4.72 206,696 13.10 199,328 14.64Plug 407,922 33.99 208,485 17.85 86,751 6.13 86,751 7.30 28,777 2.03 28,777 2.41 74,542 5.27 74,542 6.27Heating 168,994 43.13 365,554 113.90 234,665 178.83 938,361 701.70 80,551 62.03 320,797 242.90 268,257 202.08 1,079,418 797.00Cooling 22,031 0.00 17,000 0.00 12,612 0.00 10,219 0.00 4,916 0.00 4,090 0.00 10,341 0.00 8,126 0.00Aux. 1,907 0.40 506 0.00 921 0.20 929 0.20 916 0.20 925 0.20 925 0.20 929 0.20Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 34.00 89,386 34.00 30,234 11.50 30,234 11.50 103,057 39.20 103,057 39.20Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 27,351 5.00 107,044 0.98 15,222 0.00 59,744 0.00 5,057 0.00 19,845 0.00 15,034 0.00 58,984 0.00Total 1,346,721 170.16 1,449,254 220.06 638,903 231.79 1,378,864 757.44 216,392 79.94 468,846 261.73 678,851 259.85 1,524,383 857.31


End-Use

Large Office Medium Office Large Retail Medium RetailExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Grocery Store Large Hotel Medium Hotel HospitalExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

End-Use

Nursing Home Large School Medium School College/UniversityExisting New Existing New Existing New Existing New

Small Com. (Small Retail)Existing New Existing

End-Use


Technical Potential

6-11

Table 6-10 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Vancouver Island

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 179.36 1,031,434 179.36 553,819 104.82 602,614 104.82 5,731,955 1315.59 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 66.07 885,186 66.07 517,358 38.62 517,358 38.62 1,202,227 136.47 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 557,995 0.00 305,025 0.00 344,446 0.00 185,386 0.00 184,471 28.80 93,622 33.20 14,859 3.78 42,506 13.70Cooling 410,661 0.00 155,217 0.00 181,658 0.00 73,431 0.00 360,248 30.90 213,019 0.00 93,388 0.00 74,000 0.00Aux. 230,404 0.00 146,526 0.00 60,090 0.00 41,333 0.00 307,958 50.50 978 0.20 978 0.20 978 0.20Ventilation 403,071 0.00 325,934 0.00 236,948 0.00 190,723 0.00 837,687 151.70 306,803 57.20 119,549 22.30 110,087 20.70Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 21,045 0.00 82,593 0.00 12,312 0.00 48,213 0.00 65,899 18.15 119,973 1.65 11,040 3.03 43,215 0.60Total 3,456,279 245.43 2,931,915 245.43 1,906,631 143.44 1,659,057 143.44 8,690,445 1732.11 3,693,336 711.66 1,397,976 272.02 1,334,443 257.99

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 93.11 473,921 60.69 190,827 30.99 133,212 18.64 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 119,001 14.47 119,001 14.77 1,611,755 291.69 1,367,159 241.67 426,458 71.65 357,978 56.57 1,090,399 90.87 557,254 47.70Heating 80,099 18.43 333,861 72.30 772,975 301.95 882,160 352.78 62,600 21.93 282,400 100.90 2,699,622 815.20 537,602 234.00Cooling 495 0.00 111 0.00 99,699 7.90 75,307 6.50 94,259 0.00 62,796 0.00 129,221 14.30 109,674 10.40Aux. 978 0.20 978 0.20 142,038 15.40 135,898 14.90 487 0.10 489 0.10 222,368 24.80 196,551 21.50Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,434 13.20 89,983 11.10 90,403 11.40 561,516 64.10 230,648 27.70Refrig. 294,044 35.10 294,610 35.10 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 11,058 3.05 43,294 0.60 126,209 11.10 494,463 2.18 48,282 4.25 189,171 0.83 72,896 13.18 285,637 2.58Total 625,301 97.42 893,463 144.87 3,599,091 740.35 3,545,342 691.91 912,896 140.01 1,116,449 188.43 6,248,710 1322.32 3,479,801 614.85

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 2.11 193,474 2.36 65,941 0.69 64,180 0.79 206,696 2.17 199,328 2.45Plug 407,922 33.99 208,485 17.85 86,751 0.61 86,751 0.72 28,777 0.20 28,777 0.24 74,542 0.51 74,542 0.60Heating 164,436 54.58 353,044 160.40 221,559 0.00 887,693 0.00 75,761 0.00 302,275 0.00 253,587 0.00 1,022,571 0.00Cooling 15,999 0.00 11,970 0.00 11,791 0.00 9,433 0.00 4,557 0.00 3,758 0.00 9,259 0.00 7,212 0.00Aux. 1,957 0.40 538 0.00 906 0.20 915 0.20 899 0.20 906 0.20 906 0.20 915 0.20Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 0.00 89,386 0.00 30,234 0.00 30,234 0.00 103,057 0.00 103,057 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 27,408 4.95 107,454 0.97 15,242 0.00 59,816 0.00 5,050 0.00 19,815 0.00 15,052 0.00 59,050 0.00Total 1,336,237 181.56 1,432,156 266.55 624,983 2.92 1,327,466 3.28 211,219 1.10 449,945 1.23 663,099 2.88 1,466,675 3.25


End-Use

Large Office Medium OfficeExisting New Existing

Large Retail Medium RetailNew Existing New Existing New

End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-12

Table 6-11 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Southern Interior

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 179.36 1,031,434 179.36 553,819 104.82 602,614 104.82 2,663,554 611.33 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 66.07 885,186 66.07 517,358 38.62 517,358 38.62 556,848 63.19 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 1,301,644 0.00 732,826 0.00 784,539 0.00 438,636 0.00 434,952 16.80 308,022 25.40 42,755 2.98 133,284 11.20Cooling 492,298 0.00 208,191 0.00 234,783 0.00 117,840 0.00 269,109 15.30 312,123 0.00 138,717 0.00 110,820 0.00Aux. 276,403 0.00 164,322 0.00 71,597 0.00 44,604 0.00 174,678 24.60 970 0.20 970 0.20 970 0.20Ventilation 491,520 0.00 368,711 0.00 288,971 0.00 215,822 0.00 446,766 71.30 335,721 57.90 133,701 22.70 122,249 21.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 21,409 0.00 83,774 0.00 12,488 0.00 48,971 0.00 31,114 8.68 121,908 1.70 11,208 3.13 43,901 0.62Total 4,416,377 245.43 3,474,444 245.43 2,463,555 143.44 1,985,844 143.44 4,577,020 811.19 4,037,684 704.61 1,485,513 271.72 1,474,882 255.91

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 93.11 473,921 60.69 190,827 30.99 133,212 18.64 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 119,001 14.47 119,001 14.77 1,611,755 291.69 1,367,159 241.67 426,458 71.65 357,978 56.57 1,090,399 90.87 557,254 47.70Heating 85,545 17.15 351,383 67.50 1,149,208 274.76 1,206,138 332.38 96,406 19.85 409,192 94.90 3,682,508 656.20 1,653,362 101.50Cooling 1,738 0.00 804 0.00 166,259 10.70 123,437 7.50 152,093 0.00 124,794 0.00 224,202 15.30 159,094 10.20Aux. 971 0.20 971 0.20 167,410 17.90 155,760 16.50 484 0.10 486 0.10 239,657 25.50 197,218 21.00Ventilation 41,496 8.10 39,447 7.70 172,572 19.70 118,494 13.20 91,598 11.90 91,318 11.70 577,284 65.90 270,034 25.80Refrig. 284,332 35.30 284,483 35.20 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 11,229 3.13 44,032 0.62 127,847 11.45 500,905 2.24 48,914 4.38 191,620 0.86 74,038 14.48 290,241 2.84Total 624,491 96.82 903,820 140.49 4,073,274 719.30 3,945,814 674.18 1,006,780 138.86 1,308,600 182.76 7,360,777 1168.12 4,689,637 480.00

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 2.11 193,474 2.36 65,941 0.69 64,180 0.79 206,696 2.17 199,328 2.45Plug 407,922 33.99 208,485 17.85 86,751 0.61 86,751 0.72 28,777 0.20 28,777 0.24 74,542 0.51 74,542 0.60Heating 243,890 41.80 664,773 96.30 297,515 0.00 1,178,224 0.00 101,877 0.00 402,096 0.00 336,936 0.00 1,342,822 0.00Cooling 60,003 0.00 50,363 0.00 25,653 0.00 22,251 0.00 9,522 0.00 8,332 0.00 25,309 0.00 21,801 0.00Aux. 1,942 0.40 495 0.00 918 0.20 935 0.20 917 0.20 921 0.20 918 0.20 935 0.20Ventilation 143,664 16.40 132,276 15.10 89,912 0.00 89,912 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,583 0.00 103,583 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 27,852 5.45 109,163 1.07 15,704 0.00 61,553 0.00 5,202 0.00 20,443 0.00 15,522 0.00 60,832 0.00Total 1,462,752 169.59 1,786,571 202.85 715,801 2.92 1,633,098 3.28 242,732 1.10 555,245 1.23 763,506 2.88 1,803,842 3.25


End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-13

Table 6-12 Commercial Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 102.46 1,031,434 102.46 553,819 59.90 602,614 59.90 2,663,554 611.33 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 49.56 885,186 49.56 517,358 28.97 517,358 28.97 556,848 63.19 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 1,946,343 826.30 1,078,015 86.50 1,170,248 488.30 645,945 87.10 800,266 41.30 573,523 76.90 75,145 10.33 243,396 36.30Cooling 405,506 73.80 123,815 15.30 170,420 21.60 57,698 4.20 158,047 13.20 171,708 0.00 74,982 0.00 59,531 0.00Aux. 267,081 48.80 142,290 31.60 73,279 12.70 43,285 10.40 157,425 22.10 1,213 0.20 1,213 0.20 1,210 0.20Ventilation 501,706 103.80 358,120 11.10 295,397 60.70 209,891 11.20 459,057 69.00 318,245 55.90 130,058 22.00 118,284 20.50Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 23,360 0.00 91,538 0.00 13,659 0.00 53,498 0.00 33,963 5.93 133,045 1.16 12,225 2.13 47,903 0.42Total 4,977,099 1204.71 3,710,398 296.51 2,794,179 672.17 2,130,288 201.77 4,829,161 826.04 4,156,672 753.57 1,451,784 277.37 1,533,982 280.21

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 107.46 473,921 62.69 190,827 36.91 133,212 19.49 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 119,001 14.47 119,001 14.77 1,611,755 308.88 1,367,159 246.00 426,458 78.32 357,978 58.16 1,090,399 90.87 557,254 47.70Heating 93,933 17.68 379,100 66.90 1,816,174 482.72 1,916,219 568.62 144,319 36.20 605,595 164.80 4,864,082 1079.60 2,183,922 322.30Cooling 479 0.00 141 0.00 91,750 8.60 66,494 6.30 71,375 0.00 46,159 0.00 102,539 10.70 86,684 8.00Aux. 1,215 0.20 1,215 0.20 144,095 16.00 134,611 14.90 607 0.10 608 0.10 181,488 20.30 162,407 18.00Ventilation 40,472 7.90 38,423 7.50 169,068 19.30 116,433 13.20 93,287 11.70 93,121 11.50 567,648 64.80 262,816 26.50Refrig. 286,780 34.80 286,765 34.80 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 12,261 2.13 48,018 0.42 139,613 12.48 547,052 2.45 53,408 4.78 209,291 0.94 80,843 9.85 316,648 1.93Total 634,320 95.64 936,361 139.09 4,650,679 955.43 4,621,889 914.16 980,279 168.01 1,445,964 254.98 8,359,688 1576.00 5,132,166 695.40

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 2.11 193,474 2.36 65,941 0.69 64,180 0.79 206,696 2.17 199,328 2.45Plug 407,922 33.99 208,485 17.85 86,751 1.52 86,751 1.81 28,777 0.51 28,777 0.60 74,542 1.32 74,542 1.57Heating 328,717 75.83 1,031,587 260.50 387,351 0.00 1,529,582 0.00 133,067 0.00 523,908 0.00 437,408 0.00 1,737,262 0.00Cooling 16,207 0.00 12,324 0.00 7,440 0.00 6,048 0.00 2,931 0.00 2,420 0.00 6,518 0.00 5,285 0.00Aux. 2,430 0.40 646 0.00 1,102 0.20 1,111 0.20 1,096 0.20 1,104 0.20 1,102 0.20 1,110 0.20Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,649 0.00 89,649 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,320 0.00 103,320 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 30,391 3.70 119,133 0.73 17,113 0.00 67,050 0.00 5,675 0.00 22,185 0.00 16,896 0.00 66,184 0.00Total 1,504,184 201.56 2,122,838 366.41 788,753 3.83 1,973,665 4.37 267,984 1.40 673,070 1.59 846,482 3.69 2,187,031 4.22

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 15,513 3.57 12,764 2.88 194,720 44.88 154,327 35.16 89,182 15.47 112,282 21.04Plug 145,377 25.51 144,901 25.70 258,744 31.47 258,744 32.12 26,852 3.23 31,534 4.35Heating 8,217 3.95 27,505 13.50 168,569 32.48 680,798 122.90 20,678 5.95 127,204 103.10Cooling 15,860 3.30 6,423 0.00 6,054 0.00 2,697 0.00 9,070 0.00 9,541 0.00Aux. 575 0.20 1,197 0.20 1,187 0.20 1,212 0.20 533 0.10 382 0.00Ventilation 13,320 2.60 12,295 2.40 82,480 16.10 78,894 15.40 17,072 2.70 10,728 3.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 589,860 71.60 589,886 71.60 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,168 0.38 8,673 0.08 32,068 5.60 125,685 1.10 1,719 0.30 9,050 0.08Total 201,031 39.51 213,760 44.75 1,333,681 202.33 1,892,243 278.48 165,107 27.75 300,722 131.67

End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-14

6.1.3 Saturation-Weighted End Use Unit-Level Results

The saturation-weighted end use unit-level results are presented in Table 6-13 through Table 6-16 for the residential sector and Table 6-17 through Table 6-20 for the commercial sector. The saturations that were used to derive the base case weighted end use shares were also used to derive the weighted end use shares for the technical potential. The percentage savings between the base case and the technical potential weighted end use shares were applied to the base case end use shares to determine the technical potential savings. Appendix M and Appendix N provide the complete annual and monthly saturation-weighted unit-level results for the regional peak and the overall system peak, respectively.

Table 6-13 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Lower Mainland

Table 6-14 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Vancouver Island

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 1,929 0.42 2,353 0.52 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,289 0.23 1,489 0.24Plug 4,646 0.51 5,167 0.62 1,471 0.22 1,439 0.22 1,566 0.23 1,532 0.23 2,864 0.29 3,072 0.34Heating 389 0.24 1,712 1.20 150 0.16 505 0.67 169 0.19 610 0.79 606 0.37 2,359 1.78Cooling 33 0.00 56 0.00 3 0.00 5 0.00 2 0.00 4 0.00 0 0.00 34 0.00WH 108 0.03 363 0.01 52 0.00 209 0.00 55 0.00 223 0.00 483 0.04 1,622 0.01Exterior/Common 129 0.00 129 0.00 260 0.00 266 0.00 602 0.05 581 0.04 154 0.00 154 0.00Total 7,233 1.19 9,780 2.34 3,024 0.57 3,477 1.07 3,484 0.66 4,004 1.26 5,396 0.93 8,731 2.36

Existing New Existing New Existing New Existing NewManufactured Housing

End-Use


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,246 0.42 2,746 0.52 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,289 0.23 1,489 0.24Plug 4,220 0.51 4,823 0.62 1,565 0.23 1,531 0.23 1,570 0.23 1,536 0.23 2,963 0.30 3,179 0.36Heating 1,113 0.60 4,770 2.58 169 0.14 543 0.49 167 0.14 578 0.53 433 0.26 1,630 1.10Cooling 36 0.00 63 0.00 3 0.00 4 0.00 2 0.00 4 0.00 0 0.00 31 0.00WH 511 0.10 1,713 0.03 145 0.01 589 0.00 145 0.01 589 0.00 567 0.05 1,898 0.01Exterior/Common 150 0.00 150 0.00 260 0.00 266 0.00 592 0.04 572 0.03 154 0.00 154 0.00Total 8,277 1.64 14,265 3.75 3,230 0.57 3,987 0.91 3,565 0.61 4,332 0.98 5,406 0.85 8,381 1.70


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-15

Table 6-15 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Southern Interior

Table 6-16 Residential Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,239 0.42 2,569 0.47 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,089 0.18 1,053 0.19 1,289 0.23 1,489 0.24Plug 3,268 0.52 3,674 0.59 1,422 0.21 1,392 0.21 1,568 0.23 1,534 0.23 2,714 0.28 2,912 0.33Heating 456 0.18 1,915 0.91 208 0.14 731 0.54 280 0.18 1,040 0.75 265 0.11 1,083 0.57Cooling 549 0.00 700 0.00 131 0.00 155 0.00 120 0.00 149 0.00 349 0.00 484 0.00WH 235 0.05 787 0.01 64 0.01 259 0.00 98 0.01 399 0.00 496 0.04 1,656 0.01Exterior/Common 146 0.00 147 0.00 260 0.00 266 0.00 661 0.05 631 0.04 154 0.00 154 0.00Total 6,894 1.17 9,792 1.98 3,174 0.54 3,856 0.94 3,816 0.66 4,807 1.21 5,267 0.66 7,779 1.14


End-Use


kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 2,294 0.37 2,630 0.42 1,089 0.17 1,053 0.16 1,089 0.17 1,053 0.16 1,289 0.19 1,489 0.24Plug 3,350 0.44 3,760 0.55 1,422 0.19 1,392 0.19 1,568 0.21 1,534 0.21 2,714 0.24 2,912 0.29Heating 634 0.24 2,788 1.17 283 0.14 1,069 0.61 380 0.19 1,513 0.85 363 0.14 1,555 0.68Cooling 20 0.00 27 0.00 2 0.00 3 0.00 2 0.00 2 0.00 11 0.00 16 0.00WH 296 0.05 987 0.01 70 0.01 286 0.00 108 0.01 441 0.00 639 0.05 2,129 0.01Exterior/Common 150 0.03 150 0.03 260 0.03 266 0.03 704 0.08 670 0.08 154 0.03 154 0.03Total 6,743 1.14 10,343 2.18 3,127 0.53 4,068 0.99 3,851 0.66 5,214 1.29 5,171 0.65 8,255 1.25


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-16

Table 6-17 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Lower Mainland

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 179.36 1,031,434 179.36 553,819 104.82 602,614 104.82 5,731,955 1315.59 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 66.07 885,186 66.07 517,358 38.62 517,358 38.62 1,202,227 136.47 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 31,148 0.00 16,384 0.00 38,305 0.00 19,961 0.00 10,344 1.42 5,304 1.36 831 0.16 2,412 0.61Cooling 359,350 0.00 138,120 0.00 164,597 0.00 70,735 0.00 353,199 27.39 205,586 0.00 84,811 0.00 67,894 0.00Aux. 199,987 0.00 123,595 0.00 56,353 0.00 38,660 0.00 281,131 45.24 834 0.18 786 0.17 786 0.17Ventilation 401,616 0.00 323,750 0.00 236,287 0.00 189,589 0.00 852,112 152.00 312,229 57.30 121,705 22.40 111,910 20.70Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 6,294 0.00 24,702 0.00 3,679 0.00 14,407 0.00 32,858 9.06 59,814 0.83 5,493 1.51 21,539 0.30Total 2,831,498 245.43 2,543,172 245.43 1,570,398 143.44 1,453,323 143.44 8,463,825 1687.16 3,542,707 679.07 1,371,789 266.96 1,268,199 244.56

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 82.90 473,921 57.12 190,827 26.70 133,212 17.21 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 89,251 10.85 89,251 11.08 1,208,816 209.60 1,025,369 175.73 319,843 50.20 268,484 40.35 817,799 68.15 417,940 35.77Heating 8,082 1.78 33,531 6.97 82,784 30.39 93,212 34.31 13,491 4.28 60,406 19.16 0 0.00 0 0.00Cooling 507 0.00 125 0.00 94,173 6.97 69,447 5.44 46,706 0.00 33,251 0.00 103,949 10.63 90,289 7.82Aux. 858 0.18 858 0.18 125,274 13.60 117,551 12.84 213 0.05 215 0.05 182,267 20.32 163,476 18.02Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,691 13.20 90,698 11.70 90,557 11.40 562,392 64.20 237,864 27.20Refrig. 294,419 34.95 294,906 34.95 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,206 0.61 8,644 0.12 6,290 0.40 24,647 0.08 9,625 0.61 37,714 0.12 0 0.00 0 0.00Total 514,949 74.54 528,922 75.19 2,363,752 363.06 1,920,838 298.71 671,403 93.54 623,838 88.28 3,139,096 463.17 2,472,004 359.78

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 12.63 193,474 14.25 65,941 4.19 64,180 4.72 206,696 13.10 199,328 14.64Plug 305,942 25.49 156,364 13.39 65,063 4.60 65,063 5.47 21,583 1.52 21,583 1.81 55,906 3.95 55,906 4.70Heating 25,349 6.47 54,833 17.09 23,466 17.88 93,836 70.17 4,028 3.10 16,040 12.15 8,048 6.06 32,383 23.91Cooling 9,914 0.00 7,650 0.00 1,261 0.00 1,022 0.00 492 0.00 409 0.00 310 0.00 244 0.00Aux. 858 0.18 228 0.00 92 0.02 93 0.02 92 0.02 92 0.02 28 0.01 28 0.01Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 34.00 89,386 34.00 30,234 11.50 30,234 11.50 103,057 39.20 103,057 39.20Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,735 0.50 10,704 0.10 1,522 0.00 5,974 0.00 506 0.00 1,984 0.00 1,503 0.00 5,898 0.00Total 1,063,314 120.29 980,443 117.90 380,139 69.14 448,848 123.91 122,874 20.33 134,522 30.19 375,548 62.33 396,844 82.46

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 15,513 3.57 12,764 2.88 194,720 44.88 154,327 35.16 89,182 15.47 112,282 21.04Plug 109,033 19.13 108,676 19.27 258,744 31.47 258,744 32.12 26,852 3.23 31,534 4.35Heating 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 643 0.29 1,781 0.00Cooling 13,702 2.64 6,176 0.00 2,525 0.00 1,152 0.00 9,646 0.00 11,967 0.00Aux. 356 0.16 736 0.16 281 0.06 286 0.06 333 0.08 257 0.08Ventilation 12,808 2.50 11,783 2.30 81,968 16.00 78,894 15.40 13,318 2.40 8,611 1.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 186,426 22.14 186,737 22.14 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 196 0.06 785 0.01 1,442 0.40 5,649 0.08 233 0.06 1,225 0.02Total 151,608 28.05 140,920 24.62 726,106 114.95 685,790 104.96 140,207 21.53 167,658 26.49

End-Use

Large Office Medium OfficeExisting New Existing New

Large Retail Medium RetailExisting New Existing New

End-Use

Grocery Store Large HotelExisting New Existing New

Medium Hotel HospitalExisting New Existing New

End-Use

Nursing Home Large SchoolExisting New Existing New

Medium School College/UniversityExisting New Existing New

End-Use


Small Com. (Small Retail)Existing Existing New

Technical Potential

6-17

Table 6-18 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Vancouver Island

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 179.36 1,031,434 179.36 553,819 104.82 602,614 104.82 5,731,955 1315.59 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 66.07 885,186 66.07 517,358 38.62 517,358 38.62 1,202,227 136.47 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 122,759 0.00 67,106 0.00 68,889 0.00 37,077 0.00 16,602 2.59 8,426 2.99 892 0.23 2,550 0.82Cooling 369,595 0.00 139,695 0.00 163,493 0.00 66,088 0.00 315,217 27.04 186,392 0.00 77,045 0.00 61,050 0.00Aux. 207,364 0.00 131,874 0.00 54,081 0.00 37,200 0.00 269,463 44.19 856 0.18 807 0.17 807 0.17Ventilation 403,071 0.00 325,934 0.00 236,948 0.00 190,723 0.00 837,687 151.70 306,803 57.20 119,549 22.30 110,087 20.70Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 6,313 0.00 24,778 0.00 3,694 0.00 14,464 0.00 32,950 9.08 59,987 0.83 5,520 1.51 21,608 0.30Total 2,942,205 245.43 2,606,006 245.43 1,598,281 143.44 1,465,522 143.44 8,406,101 1686.65 3,521,403 680.60 1,361,974 266.93 1,259,759 244.78

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 93.11 473,921 60.69 190,827 30.99 133,212 18.64 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 89,251 10.85 89,251 11.08 1,208,816 218.77 1,025,369 181.25 319,843 53.74 268,484 42.42 817,799 68.15 417,940 35.77Heating 9,612 2.21 40,063 8.68 146,865 57.37 167,610 67.03 25,666 8.99 115,784 41.37 53,992 16.30 10,752 4.68Cooling 445 0.00 100 0.00 84,744 6.72 64,011 5.53 42,417 0.00 28,258 0.00 109,838 12.16 93,223 8.84Aux. 881 0.18 881 0.18 120,732 13.09 115,513 12.67 219 0.05 220 0.05 189,013 21.08 167,068 18.28Ventilation 39,447 7.70 37,910 7.40 168,192 19.20 116,434 13.20 89,983 11.10 90,403 11.40 561,516 64.10 230,648 27.70Refrig. 291,103 34.75 291,664 34.75 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,212 0.61 8,659 0.12 23,980 2.11 93,948 0.41 19,796 1.74 77,560 0.34 1,458 0.26 5,713 0.05Total 513,129 74.77 532,225 76.70 2,431,553 410.36 2,056,806 340.77 688,750 106.60 713,921 114.21 3,206,305 481.93 2,487,779 366.29

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 2.11 193,474 2.36 65,941 0.69 64,180 0.79 206,696 2.17 199,328 2.45Plug 305,942 25.49 156,364 13.39 65,063 0.46 65,063 0.54 21,583 0.15 21,583 0.18 55,906 0.38 55,906 0.45Heating 16,444 5.46 35,304 16.04 33,234 0.00 133,154 0.00 9,849 0.00 39,296 0.00 15,215 0.00 61,354 0.00Cooling 7,199 0.00 5,387 0.00 1,179 0.00 943 0.00 456 0.00 376 0.00 278 0.00 216 0.00Aux. 881 0.18 242 0.00 91 0.02 91 0.02 90 0.02 91 0.02 27 0.01 27 0.01Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,386 0.00 89,386 0.00 30,234 0.00 30,234 0.00 103,057 0.00 103,057 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,741 0.50 10,745 0.10 1,981 0.00 7,776 0.00 656 0.00 2,576 0.00 1,505 0.00 5,905 0.00Total 1,051,722 119.27 958,707 116.86 390,282 2.59 489,887 2.92 128,809 0.87 158,334 0.99 382,684 2.56 425,794 2.91

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 15,513 3.57 12,764 2.88 194,720 44.88 154,327 35.16 89,182 15.47 112,282 21.04Plug 109,033 19.13 108,676 19.27 258,744 31.47 258,744 32.12 26,852 3.23 31,534 4.35Heating 568 0.39 1,887 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 1,067 0.74 2,559 0.00Cooling 13,588 2.71 5,992 0.00 2,433 0.00 964 0.00 9,133 0.00 10,823 0.00Aux. 343 0.16 749 0.16 286 0.06 293 0.06 341 0.08 258 0.08Ventilation 12,808 2.50 11,783 2.30 81,968 16.00 78,894 15.40 13,094 2.40 8,557 1.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 184,352 22.02 184,718 21.99 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 292 0.08 1,169 0.02 1,446 0.40 5,668 0.08 388 0.11 2,038 0.03Total 152,145 28.55 143,020 25.99 723,950 114.83 683,610 104.81 140,057 22.02 168,050 26.50

End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-18

Table 6-19 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Southern Interior

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 179.36 1,031,434 179.36 553,819 104.82 602,614 104.82 2,663,554 611.33 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 66.07 885,186 66.07 517,358 38.62 517,358 38.62 556,848 63.19 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 130,164 0.00 73,283 0.00 156,908 0.00 87,727 0.00 21,748 0.84 15,401 1.27 5,131 0.36 15,994 1.34Cooling 443,068 0.00 187,372 0.00 211,305 0.00 106,056 0.00 235,470 13.39 273,107 0.00 114,441 0.00 91,427 0.00Aux. 248,762 0.00 147,890 0.00 64,437 0.00 40,144 0.00 152,843 21.53 849 0.18 800 0.17 800 0.17Ventilation 491,520 0.00 368,711 0.00 288,971 0.00 215,822 0.00 446,766 71.30 335,721 57.90 133,701 22.70 122,249 21.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 5,352 0.00 20,943 0.00 3,746 0.00 14,691 0.00 12,446 3.47 48,763 0.68 5,604 1.56 21,951 0.31Total 3,151,970 245.43 2,714,819 245.43 1,796,544 143.44 1,584,411 143.44 4,089,674 785.04 3,632,782 679.44 1,417,839 267.51 1,316,078 245.71

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 93.11 473,921 60.69 190,827 30.99 133,212 18.64 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 89,251 10.85 89,251 11.08 1,208,816 218.77 1,025,369 181.25 319,843 53.74 268,484 42.42 817,799 68.15 417,940 35.77Heating 8,554 1.72 35,138 6.75 1,034,287 247.28 1,085,524 299.14 9,641 1.99 40,919 9.49 36,825 6.56 16,534 1.02Cooling 1,564 0.00 724 0.00 141,320 9.10 104,921 6.38 68,442 0.00 56,157 0.00 190,572 13.01 135,230 8.67Aux. 874 0.18 874 0.18 142,298 15.22 132,396 14.03 218 0.05 219 0.05 203,709 21.68 167,635 17.85Ventilation 41,496 8.10 39,447 7.70 172,572 19.70 118,494 13.20 91,598 11.90 91,318 11.70 577,284 65.90 270,034 25.80Refrig. 281,488 34.95 281,639 34.85 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,246 0.63 8,806 0.12 115,063 10.31 450,814 2.02 7,337 0.66 28,743 0.13 0 0.00 0 0.00Total 505,653 74.89 519,577 75.18 3,492,579 613.47 3,391,440 576.70 687,906 99.31 619,052 82.42 3,298,878 475.17 2,569,807 360.08

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 2.11 193,474 2.36 65,941 0.69 64,180 0.79 206,696 2.17 199,328 2.45Plug 305,942 25.49 156,364 13.39 65,063 0.46 65,063 0.54 21,583 0.15 21,583 0.18 55,906 0.38 55,906 0.45Heating 2,439 0.42 6,648 0.96 29,751 0.00 117,822 0.00 7,131 0.00 28,147 0.00 16,847 0.00 67,141 0.00Cooling 27,001 0.00 22,663 0.00 2,565 0.00 2,225 0.00 952 0.00 833 0.00 759 0.00 654 0.00Aux. 874 0.18 223 0.00 92 0.02 93 0.02 92 0.02 92 0.02 28 0.01 28 0.01Ventilation 143,664 16.40 132,276 15.10 89,912 0.00 89,912 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,583 0.00 103,583 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 1,393 0.27 5,458 0.05 1,570 0.00 6,155 0.00 520 0.00 2,044 0.00 1,552 0.00 6,083 0.00Total 1,058,792 114.31 944,648 102.04 388,302 2.59 474,745 2.92 126,716 0.87 147,376 0.99 385,371 2.56 432,723 2.91

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 15,513 3.57 12,764 2.88 194,720 44.88 154,327 35.16 89,182 15.47 112,282 21.04Plug 109,033 19.13 108,676 19.27 258,744 31.47 258,744 32.12 26,852 3.23 31,534 4.35Heating 0 0.00 0 0.00 15,139 3.08 62,261 12.13 2,438 0.36 14,055 0.00Cooling 15,429 2.79 8,573 0.00 3,895 0.00 2,366 0.00 12,723 0.00 14,357 0.00Aux. 357 0.16 746 0.16 288 0.06 291 0.06 348 0.08 256 0.08Ventilation 13,320 2.60 12,295 2.40 85,554 16.70 80,943 15.80 15,543 2.60 10,505 1.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 178,243 22.11 178,330 22.11 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 199 0.06 797 0.01 2,938 0.82 11,513 0.16 158 0.05 829 0.01Total 153,852 28.31 143,851 24.72 739,522 119.12 748,776 117.54 147,244 21.78 183,818 26.58

End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-19

Table 6-20 Commercial Weighted Unit Energy Consumption and Regional Peak Demand – Technical Potential – Northern Region

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 947,917 102.46 1,031,434 102.46 553,819 59.90 602,614 59.90 2,663,554 611.33 2,490,510 568.51 959,192 220.13 896,223 204.60Plug 885,186 49.56 885,186 49.56 517,358 28.97 517,358 28.97 556,848 63.19 468,430 50.91 198,969 22.60 167,435 18.19Heating 194,634 82.63 107,802 8.65 234,050 97.66 129,189 17.42 40,013 2.07 28,676 3.85 9,017 1.24 29,208 4.36Cooling 364,956 66.42 111,433 13.77 153,378 19.44 51,928 3.78 138,292 11.55 150,244 0.00 61,860 0.00 49,113 0.00Aux. 240,373 43.92 128,061 28.44 65,951 11.43 38,956 9.36 137,747 19.34 1,061 0.18 1,000 0.17 998 0.17Ventilation 501,706 103.80 358,120 11.10 295,397 60.70 209,891 11.20 459,057 69.00 318,245 55.90 130,058 22.00 118,284 20.50Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 5,840 0.00 22,884 0.00 4,098 0.00 16,049 0.00 13,585 2.37 53,218 0.46 6,113 1.06 23,951 0.21Total 3,140,612 448.78 2,644,920 213.97 1,824,050 278.10 1,565,985 130.63 4,009,096 778.84 3,510,384 679.80 1,366,210 267.19 1,285,212 248.02

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 80,178 18.47 63,698 14.50 678,223 107.46 473,921 62.69 190,827 36.91 133,212 19.49 1,472,689 299.88 1,562,434 270.97Plug 89,251 10.85 89,251 11.08 1,208,816 231.66 1,025,369 184.50 319,843 58.74 268,484 43.62 817,799 68.15 417,940 35.77Heating 9,393 1.77 37,910 6.69 1,634,557 434.45 1,724,597 511.76 14,432 3.62 60,560 16.48 48,641 10.80 21,839 3.22Cooling 431 0.00 127 0.00 77,988 7.31 56,520 5.36 32,119 0.00 20,771 0.00 87,158 9.10 73,682 6.80Aux. 1,094 0.18 1,094 0.18 122,481 13.60 114,419 12.67 273 0.05 273 0.05 154,265 17.26 138,046 15.30Ventilation 40,472 7.90 38,423 7.50 169,068 19.30 116,433 13.20 93,287 11.70 93,121 11.50 567,648 64.80 262,816 26.50Refrig. 283,912 34.45 283,898 34.45 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 2,452 0.43 9,604 0.08 125,652 11.23 492,347 2.20 8,011 0.72 31,394 0.14 0 0.00 0 0.00Total 507,184 74.05 524,003 74.48 4,016,785 825.00 4,003,606 792.37 658,792 111.74 607,815 91.28 3,148,200 469.97 2,476,758 358.57

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 577,480 71.55 621,016 72.53 199,348 2.11 193,474 2.36 65,941 0.69 64,180 0.79 206,696 2.17 199,328 2.45Plug 305,942 25.49 156,364 13.39 65,063 1.14 65,063 1.36 21,583 0.38 21,583 0.45 55,906 0.99 55,906 1.18Heating 3,287 0.76 10,316 2.61 38,735 0.00 152,958 0.00 9,315 0.00 36,674 0.00 21,870 0.00 86,863 0.00Cooling 7,293 0.00 5,546 0.00 744 0.00 605 0.00 293 0.00 242 0.00 196 0.00 159 0.00Aux. 1,094 0.18 291 0.00 110 0.02 111 0.02 110 0.02 110 0.02 33 0.01 33 0.01Ventilation 141,036 16.10 129,648 14.80 89,649 0.00 89,649 0.00 30,496 0.00 30,496 0.00 103,320 0.00 103,320 0.00Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 1,520 0.19 5,957 0.04 1,711 0.00 6,705 0.00 568 0.00 2,219 0.00 1,690 0.00 6,618 0.00Total 1,037,651 114.26 929,137 103.36 395,360 3.27 508,565 3.74 128,305 1.09 155,504 1.26 389,710 3.17 452,227 3.63

kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kW kWh/yr kWLighting 15,513 3.57 12,764 2.88 194,720 44.88 154,327 35.16 89,182 15.47 112,282 21.04Plug 109,033 19.13 108,676 19.27 258,744 31.47 258,744 32.12 26,852 3.23 31,534 4.35Heating 0 0.00 0 0.00 16,857 3.25 68,080 12.29 4,136 1.19 25,441 20.62Cooling 12,292 2.56 4,978 0.00 1,816 0.00 809 0.00 7,256 0.00 7,633 0.00Aux. 446 0.16 928 0.16 356 0.06 364 0.06 426 0.08 305 0.00Ventilation 13,320 2.60 12,295 2.40 82,480 16.10 78,894 15.40 17,072 2.70 10,728 3.10Refrig. 0 0.00 0 0.00 179,907 21.84 179,915 21.84 0 0.00 0 0.00WH 217 0.04 867 0.01 3,207 0.56 12,568 0.11 172 0.03 905 0.01Total 150,820 28.06 140,509 24.71 738,088 118.16 753,702 116.98 145,096 22.70 188,829 49.12

End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


End-Use


Technical Potential

6-20

6.2 Aggregated Technical Potential Results

This section presents the results of the technical potential analysis. Table 6-21 presents the total energy and peak demand potential for each of the four regions. The peak demand savings for each region represents the savings from each region’s coincident peak demand (or regional maximum peak value). The system total savings in Table 6-21 represent the savings from the system coincident peak demand. In FY 2016, the technical potential analysis shows that the energy efficiency savings is 8,804 GWh, which is equivalent to 22% of the base case, while the peak demand savings is 3,199 MW, which is equivalent to 38% of the base case. Table 6-22 presents the technical potential savings by sector. Table 6-23 shows the technical potential savings by rate class.

Table 6-21 Total Energy and Peak Demand Savings

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016Lower Mainland

Base Case 19,872 22,396 24,463 3,978 4,430 4,785Technical Potential Savings (TP) 3,992 4,240 4,442 1,607 1,669 1,717% TP of Base 20% 19% 18% 40% 38% 36%

Vancouver IslandBase Case 6,857 7,511 8,220 1,680 1,851 2,008Technical Potential Savings (TP) 2,251 2,318 2,391 887 915 942% TP of Base 33% 31% 29% 53% 49% 47%

Southern InteriorBase Case 3,613 3,897 4,208 838 898 958Technical Potential Savings (TP) 916 948 982 347 358 369% TP of Base 25% 24% 23% 41% 40% 38%

Northern RegionBase Case 3,663 3,781 3,987 653 689 736Technical Potential Savings (TP) 956 968 989 258 264 272% TP of Base 26% 26% 25% 40% 38% 37%

System Total*Base Case 34,005 37,585 40,878 7,029 7,739 8,348Technical Potential Savings (TP) 8,114 8,474 8,804 2,991 3,103 3,199% TP of Base 24% 23% 22% 43% 40% 38%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands d not add up to the system peak demand.

Energy (GWH) Demand (MW)

Technical Potential

6-21

Table 6-22 Technical Potential Savings by Sector

Table 6-23 Technical Potential Savings by Rate Class

Region/Sector FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy Demand

Lower MainlandResidential 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271 58% 75%Commercial 1,623 1,765 1,882 388 421 447 42% 25%Total 3,992 4,240 4,442 1,607 1,669 1,717 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandResidential 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798 82% 85%Commercial 394 410 435 124 134 143 18% 15%Total 2,251 2,318 2,391 887 915 942 100% 100%

Southern InteriorResidential 629 650 667 280 287 294 69% 80%Commercial 287 298 315 67 71 75 31% 20%Total 916 948 982 347 358 369 100% 100%

Northern RegionResidential 611 623 634 194 197 202 64% 75%Commercial 344 345 355 65 67 70 36% 25%Total 956 968 989 258 264 272 100% 100%

System Total*Residential 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451 67% 77%Commercial 2,648 2,818 2,986 652 704 748 33% 23%Total 8,114 8,474 8,804 2,991 3,103 3,199 100% 100%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.


Region/Rate FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy Demand

Lower MainlandResidential 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271 58% 75%General - Under 35 kW 331 360 384 80 87 92 8% 5%General - 35 kW & Over 1,244 1,355 1,446 300 326 346 32% 20%Transmission 49 50 52 8 8 9 1% 0%Total 3,992 4,240 4,442 1,607 1,669 1,717 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandResidential 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798 82% 85%General - Under 35 kW 102 107 113 32 35 37 5% 4%General - 35 kW & Over 292 303 322 92 99 106 13% 11%Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Total 2,251 2,318 2,391 887 915 942 100% 100%

Southern InteriorResidential 629 650 667 280 287 294 69% 80%General - Under 35 kW 72 75 79 17 18 19 8% 5%General - 35 kW & Over 215 224 236 50 53 56 24% 15%Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Total 916 948 982 347 358 369 100% 100%

Northern RegionResidential 611 623 634 194 197 202 64% 75%General - Under 35 kW 72 73 75 14 14 15 7% 5%General - 35 kW & Over 272 273 281 51 53 56 28% 20%Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Total 956 968 989 258 264 272 100% 100%

System TotalResidential 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451 67% 77%General - Under 35 kW 572 609 646 142 153 163 7% 5%General - 35 kW & Over 2,028 2,160 2,289 502 543 577 25% 17%Transmission 49 50 52 8 8 9 1% 0%Total 8,114 8,474 8,804 2,991 3,103 3,199 100% 100%


Technical Potential

6-22

6.2.1 Capacity Reduction Supply Curve Assessment

Capacity reduction supply curves were generated in order to highlight the relationship between the capacity reduction technical potential and the cost associated with achieving that potential. provides the supply curve for all energy efficiency measures. As can be seen from the curve, a significant portion (nearly two-thirds) of the aggregate technical potential falls below a lifecycle cost of $150 per kW.

The representative measures that fall below the $150 per kW lifecycle cost threshold include:

Residential: • Space heating • Lighting • Exterior lighting

Commercial: • Space heating • Cooling • Water heating

As measures become more expensive (e.g., greater than $150 per kW) less additional technical potential is available, as illustrated by the sharp rise in the supply curve in Figure 6-2.

Figure 6-2 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Supply Curve

BC Hydro Capacity Reduction PotentialMaximum Potential -- Residential & Commercial Sectors

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500


Mea

sure

Cos

t $/k

W S

aved

(L

evel

ized

in 2

005

Dol

lars

)

FY2011FY2016

Technical Potential

6-23

6.3 Residential Sector

The energy and peak demand base case and technical potential results for the residential sector are summarized in Table 6-24. The results of the technical potential analysis show that the energy-efficiency savings in FY 2016 is 5,818 GWh, which is equivalent to 30% of the base case. The technical potential for peak demand in FY 2016 is 2,451 MW, which is 48% of the base case.

Table 6-25 presents the total residential technical potential by dwelling type. Table 6-26 shows the technical potential by end use. Tables 6-26a, 6-26b, 6-26c and 6-26d show the technical potential by end-use for each of the four regions. The tables illustrate that three end uses account for most of the demand impacts: heating, water heating, and plug loads. The detailed technical potential results for the residential sector at the regional peak level are provided in Appendix O. The detailed results at the system peak level are provided in Appendix P. The tables in Appendices O and P provide an additional layer of detail – at the regional, building type and end-use levels.

Table 6-24 Energy and Demand Potential Savings – Residential Sector


Base Case 8,325 9,502 10,474 2,279 2,540 2,745Technical Potential Savings (TP) 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271% TP of Base 28% 26% 24% 53% 49% 46%

Vancouver IslandBase Case 4,127 4,628 5,087 1,204 1,327 1,439Technical Potential Savings (TP) 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798% TP of Base 45% 41% 38% 63% 59% 55%



System TotalBase Case 15,697 17,652 19,329 4,305 4,741 5,116Technical Potential Savings (TP) 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451% TP of Base 35% 32% 30% 54% 51% 48%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.


Technical Potential

6-24

Table 6-25 Technical Potential Savings by Dwelling Type – Residential Sector


Single Family 1,675 1,749 1,809 816 836 851 71% 67%MF Low Rise 329 345 358 210 214 217 14% 17%MF High Rise 204 215 225 134 139 142 9% 11%Mfg Housing 160 165 169 58 59 60 7% 5%Total 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandSingle Family 1,558 1,601 1,641 620 635 650 84% 81%MF Low Rise 123 126 129 67 68 69 7% 9%MF High Rise 43 44 46 24 25 26 2% 3%Mfg Housing 133 137 141 51 52 53 7% 7%Total 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798 100% 100%

Southern InteriorSingle Family 453 468 481 199 204 210 72% 71%MF Low Rise 40 41 42 24 25 25 6% 9%MF High Rise 16 16 17 9 10 10 3% 3%Mfg Housing 119 124 127 47 48 49 19% 17%Total 629 650 667 280 287 294 100% 100%

Northern RegionSingle Family 441 449 457 139 142 145 72% 72%MF Low Rise 39 40 40 16 16 16 6% 8%MF High Rise 16 16 16 6 6 6 3% 3%Mfg Housing 116 118 121 32 33 34 19% 17%Total 611 623 634 194 197 202 100% 100%

System Total*Single Family 4,127 4,267 4,388 1,699 1,743 1,781 75% 73%MF Low Rise 532 552 569 296 302 308 10% 13%MF High Rise 278 292 303 163 169 174 5% 7%Mfg Housing 528 544 558 181 185 188 10% 8%Total 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451 100% 100%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.

% of FY 2011 TotalEnergy (GWH) Demand (MW)

Technical Potential

6-25

Table 6-26 Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Residential Sector


Lighting 108 125 139 28 31 33 5% 2%Plug 397 446 486 140 154 165 18% 12%Heating 1,294 1,294 1,294 956 956 956 52% 77%Cooling 12 14 15 0 0 0 1% 0%Water Heating 419 437 452 80 90 97 18% 7%Exterior 139 159 175 15 17 19 6% 1%Total 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandLighting 40 46 51 9 10 11 2% 1%Plug 132 148 163 47 52 57 8% 7%Heating 1,066 1,066 1,066 604 604 604 56% 77%Cooling 5 5 6 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 562 586 608 99 112 123 31% 14%Exterior 51 57 62 2 3 3 3% 0%Total 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798 100% 100%

Southern InteriorLighting 22 25 27 7 8 8 4% 3%Plug 62 68 73 39 42 44 10% 15%Heating 284 284 284 187 187 187 44% 65%Cooling 48 52 55 0 0 0 8% 0%Water Heating 184 190 196 46 49 53 29% 17%Exterior 29 31 34 1 1 1 5% 0%Total 629 650 667 280 287 294 100% 100%

Northern RegionLighting 19 20 22 4 4 4 3% 2%Plug 52 56 59 19 19 21 9% 10%Heating 324 324 324 132 132 132 52% 67%Cooling 1 1 2 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 191 196 200 28 30 32 31% 15%Exterior 24 26 27 11 12 13 4% 6%Total 611 623 634 194 197 202 100% 100%

System TotalLighting 190 216 239 50 56 60 4% 2%Plug 643 718 781 258 282 302 13% 12%Heating 2,968 2,968 2,968 1,761 1,761 1,761 52% 73%Cooling 67 73 77 0 0 0 1% 0%Water Heating 1,356 1,409 1,456 252 280 305 25% 12%Exterior 243 272 298 18 21 23 5% 1%Total 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451 100% 100%


Technical Potential

6-26

Table 6-26a Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Residential Sector: Lower Mainland

Dwelling Type FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016Single Family

Lighting 72 83 92 20 23 24Plug 337 377 409 110 121 128Heating 914 914 914 618 618 618Cooling 11 13 14 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 255 266 276 67 75 81Exterior 85 96 104 0 0 0Total 1,675 1,749 1,809 816 836 851

MF Low RiseLighting 22 26 29 4 5 6Plug 31 36 41 17 20 22Heating 189 189 189 183 183 183Cooling 1 1 1 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 65 68 70 5 6 7Exterior 22 26 29 0 0 0Total 329 345 358 210 214 217

MF High RiseLighting 12 14 15 2 3 3Plug 17 20 23 9 10 12Heating 112 112 112 106 106 106Cooling 0 0 0 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 36 38 39 3 3 3Exterior 27 31 35 15 17 19Total 204 215 225 134 139 142

Mfg HousingLighting 3 3 3 1 1 1Plug 11 13 14 3 4 4Heating 78 78 78 49 49 49Cooling 0 0 0 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 62 65 67 6 6 7Exterior 6 6 7 0 0 0Total 160 165 169 58 59 60

Residential Sector Total By End UseLighting 108 125 139 28 31 33Plug 397 446 486 140 154 165Heating 1,294 1,294 1,294 956 956 956Cooling 12 14 15 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 419 437 452 80 90 97Exterior 139 159 175 15 17 19Total 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271

Residential Sector Total By Dwellling TypeSingle Family 1,675 1,749 1,809 816 836 851MF Low Rise 329 345 358 210 214 217MF High Rise 204 215 225 134 139 142Mfg Housing 160 165 169 58 59 60Total 2,369 2,474 2,561 1,219 1,248 1,271

Energy Savings (GWH) Demand Savings (MW)

Technical Potential

6-27

Table 6-26b Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Residential Sector: Vancouver Island


Lighting 30 35 39 6 7 8Plug 110 124 137 35 39 42Heating 943 943 943 493 493 493Cooling 5 5 6 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 433 454 472 85 97 107Exterior 36 40 44 0 0 0Total 1,558 1,601 1,641 620 635 650




Residential Sector Total By End UseLighting 40 46 51 9 10 11Plug 132 148 163 47 52 57Heating 1,066 1,066 1,066 604 604 604Cooling 5 5 6 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 562 586 608 99 112 123Exterior 51 57 62 2 3 3Total 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798

Residential Sector Total By Dwellling TypeSingle Family 1,558 1,601 1,641 620 635 650MF Low Rise 123 126 129 67 68 69MF High Rise 43 44 46 24 25 26Mfg Housing 133 137 141 51 52 53Total 1,856 1,908 1,956 762 781 798


Technical Potential

6-28

Table 6-26c Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Residential Sector: Southern Interior


Lighting 17 19 20 6 6 6Plug 48 53 56 30 32 34Heating 217 217 217 129 129 129Cooling 39 42 44 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 112 116 119 34 37 39Exterior 20 22 23 0 0 0Total 453 468 481 199 204 210




Residential Sector Total By End UseLighting 22 25 27 7 8 8Plug 62 68 73 39 42 44Heating 284 284 284 187 187 187Cooling 48 52 55 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 184 190 196 46 49 53Exterior 29 31 34 1 1 1Total 629 650 667 280 287 294

Residential Sector Total By Dwellling TypeSingle Family 453 468 481 199 204 210MF Low Rise 40 41 42 24 25 25MF High Rise 16 16 17 9 10 10Mfg Housing 119 124 127 47 48 49Total 629 650 667 280 287 294


Technical Potential

6-29

Table 6-26d Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Residential Sector: Northern Region

6.3.1 Dwelling Type FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016Single Family

Lighting 14 16 17 3 3 3Plug 41 44 46 14 15 16Heating 250 250 250 95 95 95Cooling 1 1 1 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 117 120 123 21 22 24Exterior 17 18 19 6 7 7Total 441 449 457 139 142 145




Residential Sector Total By End UseLighting 19 20 22 4 4 4Plug 52 56 59 19 19 21Heating 324 324 324 132 132 132Cooling 1 1 2 0 0 0Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0WH 191 196 200 28 30 32Exterior 24 26 27 11 12 13Total 611 623 634 194 197 202

Residential Sector Total By Dwellling TypeSingle Family 441 449 457 139 142 145MF Low Rise 39 40 40 16 16 16MF High Rise 16 16 16 6 6 6Mfg Housing 116 118 121 32 33 34Total 611 623 634 194 197 202


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6.3.1 Residential Supply Curve Analysis

Capacity reduction supply curves were generated for the residential sector. These curves were generated at the end-use level drawing upon the measure-level costs detailed in Table 5-3 (for the Y-axis) and the savings listed in the table above (for the X-axis). Since measure costs (expressed on a levelized $/kW basis) were generated at the measure level, it was necessary to establish costs at the end-use level. A weighting scheme was developed to get from the measure level to the end-use level, drawing upon a qualitative methodology for assigning each measure’s estimated contribution to the total technical potential. The levelized costs listed below represent the end result of that analysis:

• Cooling: $221.81 • Heating: $112.43 • Lighting: $38.46 • Exterior lighting: $81.73 • Water Heating: $333.07 • Plug Loads: $198.63

Figure 6-3 illustrates the capacity reduction supply curve for the residential sector. As can be seen, about 2,000 MW of the technical potential would be available at a cost of just above $100 per kW. Getting to the total residential technical potential of 2,500 MW would require stepping into the higher cost categories nearing $300 per kW.

Figure 6-3 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Supply Curve – Residential Sector

BC Hydro Capacity Reduction PotentialMaximum Potential -- Residential Sector

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6.4 Commercial Sector

The energy and peak demand base case and technical potential results for the commercial sector are summarized in Table 6-27. The results of the technical potential analysis show that the energy-efficiency savings in FY 2016 is 2,986 GWh, which is equivalent to 14% of the base case. The technical potential for peak demand in FY 2016 is 748 MW, which is 23% of the base case. Table 6-28 presents the technical potential by building type. Table 6-29 presents the technical potential by end use. Across all building types, three end uses account for most of the demand impacts: lighting, plug loads and heating. The detailed technical potential results for the commercial sector at the regional peak level are provided in Appendix O. The detailed technical potential results at the system peak level are provided in Appendix P. The tables in Appendices O and P provide an additional layer of detail – at the regional, building type and end-use levels.

Table 6-27 Energy and Demand Potential Savings – Commercial Sector


Base Case 11,547 12,894 13,989 1,699 1,890 2,040Technical Potential Savings (TP) 1,623 1,765 1,882 388 421 447% TP of Base 14% 14% 13% 23% 22% 22%

Vancouver IslandBase Case 2,730 2,883 3,133 476 524 569Technical Potential Savings (TP) 394 410 435 124 134 143% TP of Base 14% 14% 14% 26% 26% 25%



System Total*Base Case 18,308 19,933 21,549 2,725 2,998 3,232Technical Potential Savings (TP) 2,648 2,818 2,986 652 704 748% TP of Base 14% 14% 14% 24% 23% 23%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.


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Table 6-28 Technical Potential Savings by Building Type – Commercial Sector


Large Office 241 259 270 61 67 71 15% 16%Medium Office 49 53 56 12 13 14 3% 3%Large Retail 103 117 127 10 12 13 7% 3%Medium Retail 29 33 35 3 3 4 2% 1%Grocery 22 23 23 6 6 6 1% 1%Large Hotel 25 28 30 4 4 5 2% 1%Medium Hotel 20 21 22 3 4 4 1% 1%Hospital 49 53 55 3 3 4 3% 1%Nursing Home 10 10 11 2 2 3 1% 1%Large School 85 89 91 28 28 29 5% 7%Medium School 31 32 33 10 10 11 2% 2%College 127 131 134 36 37 38 7% 9%Restaurant 12 13 13 2 3 3 1% 1%Warehouse 18 20 21 9 10 11 1% 2%Small Commercial 455 505 549 150 163 174 29% 39%Misc. Commercial 348 381 412 48 54 60 22% 13%Total 1,623 1,765 1,882 388 421 447 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandLarge Office 27 28 30 9 10 10 7% 7%Medium Office 10 11 12 3 4 4 3% 3%Large Retail 20 21 23 2 3 3 5% 2%Medium Retail 9 9 10 1 1 1 2% 1%Grocery 11 11 11 3 4 4 3% 3%Large Hotel 3 3 4 1 1 1 1% 1%Medium Hotel 8 8 9 2 2 2 2% 1%Hospital 14 15 16 1 1 1 4% 1%Nursing Home 4 4 5 1 1 1 1% 1%Large School 20 20 21 9 9 10 5% 7%Medium School 14 15 15 6 7 7 4% 5%College 24 24 25 11 12 13 6% 9%Restaurant 4 4 4 1 1 1 1% 1%Warehouse 2 2 2 1 1 1 0% 1%Small Commercial 159 166 178 62 67 71 41% 50%Misc. Commercial 65 68 73 10 11 12 17% 8%Total 394 410 435 124 134 143 100% 100%


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FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy DemandSouthern Interior

Large Office 5 5 6 1.3 1.4 1.5 2% 2%Medium Office 4 5 5 1.2 1.3 1.4 2% 2%Large Retail 12 13 14 1.2 1.3 1.4 4% 2%Medium Retail 5 5 6 0.5 0.5 0.6 2% 1%Grocery 5 5 5 1.3 1.3 1.4 2% 2%Large Hotel 3 3 3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1% 1%Medium Hotel 3 4 4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1% 1%Hospital 6 6 6 0.4 0.4 0.4 2% 1%Nursing Home 1 1 1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2% 0.2%Large School 21 21 22 7.5 8.0 8.4 7% 11%Medium School 12 12 13 4.9 5.2 5.5 4% 7%College 8 8 8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3% 4%Restaurant 1 2 2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1% 0.4%Warehouse 2 2 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1% 1%Small Commercial 120 125 132 33.6 35.3 37.1 42% 50%Misc. Commercial 78 82 87 10.3 11.0 11.7 27% 15%Total 287 298 315 67.2 71.0 74.8 100% 100%

Northern RegionLarge Office 5 6 6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2% 1%Medium Office 5 5 5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1% 1%Large Retail 14 14 15 1.3 1.3 1.4 4% 2%Medium Retail 6 6 6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2% 1%Grocery 6 6 7 1.4 1.4 1.5 2% 2%Large Hotel 3 3 3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1% 1%Medium Hotel 4 4 4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1% 1%Hospital 6 6 7 0.4 0.4 0.5 2% 1%Nursing Home 1 1 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2% 0.2%Large School 25 25 26 8.0 8.3 8.8 7% 12%Medium School 15 15 15 5.2 5.4 5.7 4% 8%College 9 9 10 3.1 3.3 3.5 3% 5%Restaurant 2 2 2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5% 0.5%Warehouse 2 2 2 0.5 0.5 0.6 1% 1%Small Commercial 96 96 98 26.1 26.6 27.3 28% 40%Misc. Commercial 144 144 149 15.6 16.3 17.3 42% 24%Total 344 345 355 65 67 70 100% 100%


FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 Energy DemandTotal System

Large Office 278 297 311 72 78 83 11% 11%Medium Office 69 73 77 17 19 20 3% 3%Large Retail 149 165 178 15 17 18 6% 2%Medium Retail 49 54 58 5 6 6 2% 1%Grocery 45 46 46 11 12 13 2% 2%Large Hotel 35 38 40 5 6 6 1% 1%Medium Hotel 35 37 38 6 7 7 1% 1%Hospital 75 79 84 5 5 6 3% 1%Nursing Home 15 16 17 3 4 4 1% 1%Large School 151 155 159 56 61 64 6% 9%Medium School 72 74 76 29 32 33 3% 4%College 168 173 177 70 75 79 6% 11%Restaurant 19 20 21 4 4 5 1% 1%Warehouse 24 25 27 11 12 13 1% 2%Small Commercial 830 892 956 261 279 295 32% 40%Misc. Commercial 635 675 721 79 87 95 24% 12%Total 2,648 2,818 2,986 652 704 748 100% 100%*System demand represents the value for system coincident peak. The regional demand represents the regional coincident peak and may not occur at the same time as the system peak. Therefore the regional peak demands do not add up to the system peak demand.


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Table 6-29 Technical Potential Savings by End Use – Commercial Sector


Lighting 1,243 1,369 1,472 217 237 253 78% 56%Plug 0 0 0 101 112 120 0% 27%Heating 134 134 134 58 58 58 8% 14%Cooling 168 185 199 0 0 0 10% 0%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 77 77 77 11 13 15 4% 3%Total 1,623 1,765 1,882 388 421 447 100% 100%

Vancouver IslandLighting 275 289 311 73 80 86 70% 59%Plug 0 0 0 29 31 34 0% 23%Heating 60 60 60 18 18 18 15% 13%Cooling 36 37 40 0 0 0 9% 0%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 23 23 23 5 5 6 6% 4%Total 394 410 435 124 134 143 100% 100%

Southern InteriorLighting 179 189 203 42 44 47 63% 63%Plug 0 0 0 17 18 19 0% 26%Heating 63 63 63 6 6 6 21% 8%Cooling 30 32 34 0 0 0 11% 0%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 14 14 14 2 2 3 5% 4%Total 287 298 315 67 71 75 100% 100%

Northern RegionLighting 214 215 224 32 34 36 62% 50%Plug 0 0 0 19 19 21 0% 29%Heating 88 88 88 12 12 12 25% 17%Cooling 20 20 21 0 0 0 6% 0%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 22 22 22 2 2 2 6% 3%Total 344 345 355 65 67 70 100% 100%

System TotalLighting 1,911 2,062 2,210 421 455 484 73% 65%Plug 0 0 0 165 180 193 0% 26%Heating 346 346 346 45 45 45 12% 6%Cooling 254 275 294 0 0 0 10% 0%Auxiliary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Ventilation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Refrigeration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%Water Heating 137 137 137 21 24 26 5% 3%Total 2,648 2,818 2,986 652 704 748 100% 100%


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6.4.1 Commercial Supply Curve Analysis

Capacity reduction supply curves were generated for the commercial sector. These curves were generated at the end-use level drawing upon the measure-level costs detailed in Table 5-4 (for the Y-axis) and the savings listed in the table above (for the X-axis). Since measure costs (expressed on a levelized $/kW basis) were generated at the measure level, it was necessary to establish costs at the end-use level. A weighting scheme was developed to get from the measure level to the end-use level, drawing upon a qualitative methodology for assigning each measure’s estimated contribution to the total technical potential. The levelized costs listed below represent the end result of that analysis:

• Cooling: $60.59 • Heating: $130.00 • Lighting: $205.89 • Water Heating: $41.64 • Plug Loads: $178.95

Figure 6-4 illustrates the capacity reduction supply curve for the commercial sector. As can be seen, about 100 MW of the technical potential would be available at a cost of under $150 per kW. Getting to the total commercial technical potential of over 700 MW would require stepping into the higher cost categories above $200 per kW.

Figure 6-4 Capacity Reduction Technical Potential Supply Curve – Commercial Sector

BC Hydro Capacity Reduction PotentialMaximum Potential -- Commercial Sector

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7 PROGRAM DESIGN ASSESSMENT

7.1 Overview

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief assessment of implications of the technical potential results from this study in the context of potential capacity reduction programs that BC Hydro may consider in the future. Indeed, the technical potential for capacity reduction measures in BC Hydro’s residential and commercial sectors is significant. On a system level, the potential is estimated to reduce the base energy consumption by 37% in FY2005, with a 32% reduction by FY2016. For peak demand the reductions are more significant at 52% in FY2005, and 46% by FY2016. While large, the technical potential must be placed into the appropriate context in terms of (1) the types of measures that make up the bulk of technical potential; (2) the regulatory and market environment in the Province for economically capturing a portion of these savings; (3) the types of programs that can be most easily integrated into the Power Smart program framework; and (4) economic feasibility as compared to other options available to BC Hydro.

7.2 Technical Potential in Context

To better understand the technical potential results, we have organized the total potential into end-use and measure type categories. The analysis framework used to derive technical potential relies on an approach that selects the measures from our list of capacity reduction measures that deliver the maximum savings, according to the individual end-uses.

Table 7-1 summarizes the technical potential by end-use. As can be seen from this table, the vast majority of energy and demand savings for the residential sector result from the heating and water heating end-uses. For the commercial sector, the largest savings come from the lighting end-use.

Table 7-2 summarizes the technical potential according to three measure types – fuel switching, capacity reduction and energy efficiency. As can be seen for the residential sector, 85 to 91% of the energy savings and 93 to 97% of the demand savings result from fuel switching measures. For the commercial sector, 72 to 74% of the energy savings and 90 to 91% of the demand savings result from capacity reduction measures.

It is important to note that while the savings represented are significantly large, they represent an analysis framework that selects the measures that deliver the maximum savings potential. In the residential sector, fuel switching measures were selected because they delivered the maximum savings for the choices that were present in that sector. In the commercial sector, capacity reduction measures were selected because they delivered the maximum savings for the choices

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that were present in that sector. These results are very much a function of the characteristics of the base case and fuel saturations, the market and building stock characteristics, and the nature of the measures that were assessed. From a technical standpoint, fuel switching can be accomplished in virtually all households. Achieving this would instantaneously relieve any capacity shortage problems that BC Hydro faces now and in the future. However, such a scenario is not realistic given BC Hydro’s business perspectives, the capital cost required for such a massive initiative, and the capacity for the gas distributor to take on such significant increases in load. None of these factors have been addressed in this study.

Similarly, for the commercial sector a massive deployment of capacity reduction measures such as automated load controllers on lighting systems and critical peak pricing could help BC Hydro realize a large share of the potential observed from this study. However, when the effects of economics and customer acceptance are ignored (as they were for this study), it is not realistic to assume that some or all of these savings can be realized at the present time, or at any time during the stated time horizon (through FY2016).

Table 7-1 Technical Potential by End Use and Measure Type

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016ResidentialLighting - Energy Efficiency 190 216 239 50 56 60Plug - Fuel Switching 643 643 643 258 258 258Plug - Capacity Reduction 0 74 137 0 24 45Heating - Fuel Switching 2,968 2,968 2,968 1,761 1,761 1,761Cooling - Capacity Reduction 67 73 77 0 0 0Water Heat - Fuel Switching 1,356 1,356 1,356 252 252 252Water Heat - Capacity Reduction 0 53 100 0 28 53Exterior - Energy Efficiency 243 272 298 18 21 23Total 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451

CommercialLighting - Energy Efficiency 246 269 289 3 3 3Lighting - Capacity Reduction 1,665 1,793 1,921 418 452 481Plug - Capacity Reduction 0 0 0 165 180 193Heating - Fuel Switching 346 346 346 45 45 45Cooling - Capacity Reduction 254 275 294 0 0 0Cooling - Energy Efficiency 0 0 0 0 0 0Water Heating - Fuel Switching 137 137 137 21 21 21WH - Capacity Reduction 0 0 0 0 3 5Total 2,648 2,818 2,986 652 704 748

System Total 8,114 8,474 8,804 2,991 3,103 3,199



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Table 7-2 Technical Potential by Measure Type

7.2.1 Alternate Scenario without Fuel Switching Measures

Because of the high estimate associated with the fuel switching case, an alternate scenario was run taking out the fuel switching measures. This scenario was conducted to better understand the capacity reduction potential associated purely with measures such as capacity reduction and energy conservation alone. These results are reported in Table 7-3. The table reveals that without fuel switching, the bulk of residential technical potential lies with measures related to plug loads (energy efficiency) and water heater load control devices (capacity reduction). For the commercial sector, the dominant potential continues to remain with the lighting control

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016ResidentialFuel Switching 4,967 4,967 4,967 2,270 2,270 2,270Capacity Reduction 67 200 315 0 52 98Energy Efficiency 432 488 536 69 76 83Total 5,466 5,655 5,818 2,339 2,399 2,451

CommercialFuel Switching 482 482 482 66 66 66Capacity Reduction 1,920 2,067 2,215 584 636 679Energy Efficiency 246 269 289 3 3 3Total 2,648 2,818 2,986 652 704 748

System TotalFuel Switching 5,449 5,449 5,449 2,336 2,336 2,336Capacity Reduction 1,986 2,267 2,530 584 688 777Energy Efficiency 678 757 825 71 79 86Total 8,114 8,474 8,804 2,991 3,103 3,199Percent:

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016ResidentialFuel Switching 91% 88% 85% 97% 95% 93%Capacity Reduction 1% 4% 5% 0% 2% 4%Energy Efficiency 8% 9% 9% 3% 3% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CommercialFuel Switching 18% 17% 16% 10% 9% 9%Capacity Reduction 72% 73% 74% 90% 90% 91%Energy Efficiency 9% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

System TotalFuel Switching 67% 64% 62% 78% 75% 73%Capacity Reduction 24% 27% 29% 20% 22% 24%Energy Efficiency 8% 9% 9% 2% 3% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%




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devices (capacity reduction). As such, the commercial sector was relatively unaffected by the fuel switching measures. As can be seen, with the exclusion of fuel switching, the overall technical potential estimates are reduced significantly (from 8,114 GWh to 3,746 GWh for energy and 2,991 MW to 1,196 MW for peak demand).

Table 7-3 Technical Potential by End Use and Measure Type – Alternate Scenario with No Fuel Switching Measures

7.3 Regulatory and Market Environments for Capacity Reduction Initiatives in the US14

Both retail and wholesale electricity markets across the US and Canada are in various stages of restructuring. The types, maturity, and success of their capacity reduction programs reflect the variety of market and regulatory conditions. Recent research conducted by Global Energy Partners on behalf of the EPRI Market-Driven Demand Response R&D program sheds light on some US markets that may have some relevance to what BC Hydro is considering in terms of future capacity reduction implementation.

14 Much of the information presented in this section were adapted from various research assignments conducted by Global Energy Partners for the EPRI Market Driven Capacity reduction Program and the Bonneville Power Administration during 2004.

FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016 FY 2005 FY 2011 FY 2016ResidentialLighting - Energy Efficiency 190 216 239 50 56 60Plug - Energy Efficiency 591 591 591 215 215 215Plug - Capacity Reduction 0 74 137 0 24 45Heating 0 0 0 0 0 0Cooling - Capacity Reduction 67 73 77 0 0 0Water Heat - Capacity Reduction 491 544 591 299 328 353Exterior - Energy Efficiency 243 272 298 18 21 23Total 1,580 1,770 1,932 583 643 695

CommercialLighting - Energy Efficiency 246 269 289 3 3 3Lighting - Capacity Reduction 1,665 1,793 1,921 418 452 481Plug - Capacity Reduction 0 0 0 165 180 193Heating 0 0 0 0 0 0Cooling - Capacity Reduction 254 275 294 0 0 0Cooling - Energy Efficiency 0 0 0 0 0 0WH - Capacity Reduction 0 0 0 26 29 32Total 2,166 2,336 2,504 613 665 709

System Total 3,746 4,106 4,436 1,196 1,308 1,404



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The operational success of capacity reduction programs, in terms of participation, load reduction, and cost-effectiveness, is directly related to electricity prices in wholesale and retail markets, and to the potential for capacity shortages in each area. Regulatory arrangements influence both the electricity prices and, effectively, the supplies in each zone of control.

Wholesale and retail electricity prices today are relatively low, compared with other expenses faced by businesses and residents. As long as this condition prevails, the biggest factor in the feasibility of capacity reduction programs in any particular market is the regulatory climate and requirements. In regions where the market is highly regulated, public utility commission sentiment regarding capacity reduction programs will determine program viability. That is, where regulators want to see these programs in place, utilities will be wise to run them; and where regulators are decidedly opposed to using capacity reduction to control peak load, utilities are ill advised to press them. In deregulated markets, making capacity reduction programs effective or cost-effective is a challenge, given the prevailing electricity prices: Either the incentives (price signals or compliance payments) will be too low to attract participants or too high to enable program cost-effectiveness.

In summary, the present challenges and trends in capacity reduction programs:

• While wholesale and retail electricity prices are low, it is nearly impossible to make the incentives to participants high enough to effect the desired response and, at the same time, keep the program costs low enough to ensure cost-effectiveness.

• There seems to be a rather direct link between electricity prices and program participation. Recent study indicates that prices must be at least US$150–$200/MWh to attract interest in programs.

• The cost of participation can be high. Almost all capacity reduction programs require that participants have interval meters of some sort, and in many the installation of special telecommunication equipment is a term of eligibility. At current equipment costs, this can mean that only the largest customers find the investment worthwhile. At least one analysis for a program with non-compliance penalties indicated that the equipment investment is cost-effective only if the organization’s pre-participation power bill exceeds US$200,000 annually. And, even if the customer already has the required meter, participation may be cost-effective only if the annual electricity bill is at least US$50,000 and demand is above 100 kW.

• Despite relatively low electricity prices, the number of active capacity reduction programs is growing; the majority are economic or market-based rather than emergency or reliability-based.

• Some of the market actors that operate capacity reduction programs, notably ERCOT and MISO, are incorporating features in the design of these programs that treat capacity reduction resources on par with generation resources. This puts them in alignment with FERC’s Standard Market Design, which advocates similar treatment for the two types of resources.

In almost annual updates on capacity reduction issues, EPRI has tracked the policy and program design developments that affect the success of capacity reduction activities. This research has offered recommendations on regulatory policy and program design elements that would help


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secure the role and ensure the success of capacity reduction in electricity markets. Current capacity reduction policies and programs show that policy makers and program designers are moving in the direction of adopting these recommendations.

7.3.1 Retail Market Trends in Fully Regulated US States

In the US, several Midwest states are served by vertically integrated utilities under utility commission regulation that provide electricity service to end use customers. This includes Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. These utilities offer capacity reduction programs, generally termed load management, in the jargon of traditionally regulated markets.

All these states come under the Midwest Independent System Operator (“MISO”), a joint jurisdiction between the Independent System Operator (“ISO”) and the Regional Transmission Operator (“RTO”) where capacity reduction is yet to be implemented in the functioning of the wholesale market.

Here is how the retail market looks today:

• Since MISO does not yet incorporate capacity reduction in wholesale market activities, wholesale market volatility is not reflected in retail rate design.

• The regulated utilities continue to operate traditional load management programs under utility commission oversight, primarily oriented toward peak load reduction efforts either through direct load control activities or interruptible load programs.

• These utilities also offer pricing signals to retail customers through options such as real-time pricing and time-of-use pricing for load curtailment.

• The utilities offer both emergency programs and economic programs. There are fewer emergency options than economic ones.

The utility capacity reduction programs also encourage standby generator and non-electric back-up energy source participation.

7.3.2 Retail Market Trends in California: A Deregulated/Reregulated Market

Regulation has been fully reinstated in California’s retail electricity market—for the time being. Most end users must purchase electricity from their local utility. But the utilities are not fully vertically integrated; they are wires companies and load serving entities (LSEs). There is no indication that the hold on deregulation will be either released or made permanent. Thus, capacity reduction programs continue to operate under a full-regulation arrangement.

Capacity reduction activities in the state were designed to address the needs of a deregulated market, and they indeed provided peak load relief. When deregulation was halted, the programs needed redesign to meet the re-regulated environment. The modifications are actively taking place. The California Independent System Operator (“CAISO”) capacity reduction activities were at the forefront during the brief deregulation period. As the utilities stepped up their activities, their designs overlapped with CAISO programs and, in some cases, offered better incentives, leading to the decline in CAISO-operated capacity reduction. To address “double-dipping” concerns, the Public Utilities Commission barred participation in CAISO programs for


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participants in certain investor-owned utility programs. Almost all of the CAISO-operated programs have been discontinued and utility programs continue to grow and evolve in compliance with policies under re-regulation.

The success of market-based capacity reduction is mixed. As prices have settled down, following the crisis in 2001, many market-based programs have attracted few customers. Some programs, such as the Hourly Pricing Option operated by SDG&E, had no participants in 2004 and have been discontinued. PG&E’s voluntary reduction E-SAVE program was also discontinued, after the CPUC declined to fund it. At the same time, other programs are being introduced and/or expanded. The utilities’ Critical Peak Pricing pilot, for example, will become the default pricing for large customers in 2005. And PG&E proposes to operate Clean-Gen, a program to encourage the use of backup generators by paying for pollution control retrofits on the units so they can be tapped when a high-price condition is triggered. These efforts indicate the utilities are continuing to create new programs they hope will attract participants and generate peak load reductions.

In summary, in the post-crisis, re-regulation period, capacity reduction programs are mostly operated by the utilities—PG&E, SDG&E, and Southern California Edison. Most are offered only to bundled customers. While the utilities are keen on developing capacity reduction as a reliable resource, what they offer is very much driven by regulatory directive. Marketplace cost-effectiveness is not the measure of viability. The utilities are likely to continue these programs, even as they propose modifications to improve their attractiveness, regardless of market conditions—as long as the regulators remain this favorably disposed to seeing them.

7.3.3 BPA Capacity Reduction Efforts

In 2004, BPA began testing a capacity reduction pilot project in the Olympic Peninsula. Called the Demand Exchange Response Pilot, the project is an effort to determine if voluntary customer load curtailment and/or generation can shave the peak system load sufficiently to defer transmission system reinforcement for one or more years. The pilot project calls for curtailment and/or generation for 1 to 3 days several times during the winter. BPA pays customers for the energy curtailed or generated during the curtailment period. Currently, four large commercial and industrial customers have participated in the Demand Exchange Response Pilot project:

• Military Facility – approximately 32 MW reduced through the use of backup diesel generation;

• Power Station – approximately 5 MW reduced through the use of natural gas-fired backup generation;

• Paper Plant – approximately 3 MW reduced through the use of a steam turbine (with steam generated by oil and wood wastes); and

• Paper Plant – approximately 32 MW reduced through curtailment of manufacturing process loads.

The total capacity reduction available at these facilities is estimated to be 72 MW. In addition, BPA also identified five other large commercial and industrial customers that did not participate in the Demand Exchange Response Pilot project, but nonetheless can provide approximately 7 MW of capacity reduction. These are facilities represent timber processing, irrigation facilities,


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municipal facilities, and correctional facilities. As such, the total capacity reduction potential due to the potential participants and non-participants of the Demand Exchange Response Pilot project is 79 MW.

7.3.4 California Pricing Pilots

In 2004, a collaboration of California utilities and regulators established a statewide pilot program known as Critical Peak Pricing (CPP). The CPP program is a market-based capacity reduction program designed for large businesses. Under this program, the customer reduces or shifts energy usage during weekdays in the summer season away from the noon to 6 p.m. peak period during 12 or fewer CPP events. CPP events are generally triggered by temperature, but may also be activated by the utilities as warranted by extreme system conditions such as special alerts issued by the CAISO, under conditions of high forecasted California spot market power prices, or for testing and/or evaluation purposes.

Customers need to be a bundled service customer of the utility and be served under time-of-use electric rate schedules. They must have billed maximum demand of at least 200 kW during any one of the past 12 billing months, and should not be participating in other utility capacity reduction programs. Participating customers are notified on a day-ahead basis of a CPP event and receive a rate discount in exchange for higher prices on 12 CPP events days. Customers are encouraged to reduce or shift load to lower priced non-CPP hours. They require an interval meter for participation.

Usage during summer season (May 1 to October 31) peak hours is discounted on days when no CPP events are called. For any kWh usage that occurs weekdays between noon and 6 p.m. on a designated CPP day there are higher "critical peak" on-peak energy charges. With this rate, there are three price periods, one discounted and two higher priced time periods:

• Discount Price Period—All part and on-peak usage during summer period days when no CPP event is called

• Moderate Price Period—Noon to 3 p.m., when customers are charged approximately three times their normal (otherwise applicable) rate schedule part-peak energy rate

• High Price Period—3 p.m. to 6 p.m., when customers will be charged approximately five times their normal (otherwise applicable) rate schedule on-peak energy rate

This CPP approach will be the mandatory pricing approach for large customers (200–500kW demand). They will be able to opt out of the rate by paying a non-participation fee. The results of the pilot effort have yielded measurable savings (in the range of 10-15% of peak demand). A similar pilot is being fielded for smaller customer groups (residential and small business) with measurable savings observed (in the range of 5-10% of peak demand). This program, given the political and institutional arrangements in California, will continue as a pilot for the foreseeable future.


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7.4 Feasible Program Types

Based on the experience of others, a number of capacity reduction program options should be considered by BC Hydro for further review and assessment. Following is a listing of the types of capacity reduction programs that may warrant further review by BC Hydro, according to the three capacity reduction measure types listed earlier:

Measure Type 1: Capacity Reduction

Automated Direct Load Control Programs: These programs are technology based initiatives that provide customers with incentives to install state-of-the art energy management control systems and/or advanced equipment controls that will allow dual (e.g., customer and utility) control of those loads to meet certain requirements. In the customer’s case, the requirements would be energy cost optimization. In the utility’s case, the requirements are peak load reduction during a few hours of the year. For these programs to be most feasible and cost-effective, two-way control must be an enabling feature. These programs are very feasible and well-understood by all customer types, including those that were addressed in this study (e.g., residential and commercial). Advanced metering (e.g., interval meters), although helpful for measurement and verification purposes, is not a mandatory requirement for this type of program.

Critical Peak and Real-Time Pricing Programs: These programs use price signals to bring about measurable reductions in demands during periods of critical capacity. Typically, the customer who signs up for this type of program would already have the capability to shift and/or eliminate their loads to meet the capacity reductions required to bring about a reduction in their energy costs. Thus, these programs are most conducive for large commercial and industrial customer types. Advanced metering is necessary for billing and load reduction verification purposes.

Interruptible Tariffs: These are special contracts that are negotiated with large commercial and industrial customers who agree to shed a portion of their loads when called upon by the utility during time periods when electrical system demands are anticipated to be higher than available supplies. Advanced metering is necessary for billing and load reduction verification purposes.

Measure Type 2: Fuel Switching Programs

Equipment Retrofit Programs: These programs, much like the current BC Hydro Power Smart delivery format, promote the replacement of existing electric heating and water heating equipment with high efficiency gas furnaces and water heaters and solar water heaters. Advanced metering, although helpful for measurement and verification purposes, is not a mandatory requirement for this type of program.


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Measure Type 3: Conservation Programs

Equipment Retrofit and Replacement Programs: These programs would be a complement to the current BC Hydro Power Smart delivery format. Many of the measures identified in this study as additional measures over and above what was identified in the CPR 2002 study would be promoted through existing Power Smart programs. Advanced metering, although helpful for measurement and verification purposes, is not a mandatory requirement for this type of program.

7.5 Next Step Recommendations

This study has identified that there is a large technical potential for capacity reduction measures in BC Hydro’s service area. While significant, technical potential must be put into its proper context. This assessment has not covered the important aspects of economics and customer acceptance for capacity reduction measures. A further assessment of maximum achievable potential and program design, resulting from that potential should be undertaken next.

The elements of a Phase II CPR assessment for capacity reduction might include the following task activities:

1. Conduct economic screen of the capacity reduction measures identified in this study using proxy avoided costs;

2. Determine the economic potential associated with measures that passed the economic screen;

3. Assess customer acceptance of capacity reduction measures and apply those rates of acceptance to the economic potential in order to determine maximum achievable potential;

4. Develop representative capacity reduction programs that could be implemented by BC Hydro under the Power Smart delivery format;

5. Conduct a detailed cost-effectiveness assessment of the capacity reduction programs, including an assessment of the avoided capacity and energy costs and the net benefits from various perspectives including total resource cost, utility cost, ratepayer impact measure, and participant.

BC Sustainable Energy Association et al Information Request No. 1.15.1 Dated: May 9, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

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15.0 Reference: 2005 REAP, Chapter 2, Resource Planning, p.2-37; and BC

Hydro Response to BCUC IR 1.8.0

BC Hydro indicates that “BC Hydro Conservation Potential Review 2004 Residential and Commercial Capacity Reduction Study is expected to be complete by the end of June 2005.”

1.15.1 Please confirm that a copy of the report will provided to the participants in this proceeding as soon as the report is available.

RESPONSE: Please refer to BC Hydro’s revised response to BCUC IR 2.80.0.


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40.0 Reference: 2005 REAP, “F2006 Call”

BC Hydro website (http://www.bchydro.com/info/ipp/ipp20988.html): “2005 Open Call for Power”: (1) BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Non-Technical Overview; (2) BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Procurement Process Description; (3) Schedule A – Key Principles of Quantitative Evaluation Methodology –

TLDC Projects; (4) Schedule B – Key Principles of Quantitative Evaluation Methodology – SDC

Projects; (5) Schedule C – EPA Term Sheet – TLDC Projects; and (6) Schedule D – EPA Term Sheet – SDC Projects.

1.40.2 Please confirm that the terms and conditions set out in the 2005 Open Call for Tenders ((1) BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Non-Technical Overview; (2) BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Procurement Process Description; (3) Schedule A – Key Principles of Quantitative Evaluation Methodology – TLDC Projects; (4) Schedule B – Key Principles of Quantitative Evaluation Methodology – SDC Projects; (5) Schedule C – EPA Term Sheet – TLDC Projects; and (6) Schedule D – EPA Term Sheet – SDC Projects) are the same as the terms and conditions that will be applied in the F2006 Call. If the terms and conditions are or will be different, please provide the terms and conditions that will be applied to the F2006 Call.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The 2005 Open Call For Power was termed the F2006 Call in the 2005 Resource Expenditure and Acquisition Plan (2005 REAP). To remove any confusion BC Hydro plans to now title the Call, in regulatory and non-regulatory communications, as the F2006 Open Call For Power or F2006 Call.


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1.40.3 Please provide the terms and conditions that will be applied to the F2007 Call (or, if they are substantially similar to those of the F2006 Call, please describe the differences).

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). As set out in the 2005 REAP, BC Hydro currently contemplates the issuance of a F2007 Call which will be informed by the Long-Term Acquisition Plan arising out of the 2005 Integrated Electricity Plan. The Long-Term Acquisition Plan will be filed with the Commission for regulatory review in conjunction with and as part of BC Hydro’s 2006 REAP. As such there are currently no proposed terms and conditions for the proposed F2007 Call.


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BC Hydro website (http://www.bchydro.com/info/ipp/ipp20988.html): “2005 Open Call for Power”: (1) BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Non-Technical Overview; (2) BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Procurement Process Description; (3) Schedule A – Key Principles of Quantitative Evaluation Methodology – TLDC

Projects; (4) Schedule B – Key Principles of Quantitative Evaluation Methodology – SDC


1.40.4 Please explain why demand-side management is not included as an energy product that can be bid into the F2006 Call. Will demand-side management be included as an option in the F2007 Call?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro has not included demand-side management (DSM) in its energy call processes because: (1) it would increase the complexity of an energy call substantially, while negatively

impacting process transparency and costs as more fully described in the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11), and in particular page 6, lines 23-26; and

(2) there are on-going processes in place that are better able to address the acquisition of DSM resources.

DSM is fundamentally different from supply-side resource options in that the aim of DSM projects and programmes is to replace or reduce BC Hydro customer use of energy. DSM resources include both conservation and energy efficiency (Energy Efficiency), and load displacement-style customer generation (Load Displacement). Energy Efficiency programmes do not lend themselves to a Call for Tenders (CFT) process because they are mainly aimed at large numbers of customers (i.e., Energy Efficiency is broad based) as opposed to discrete substantive projects. BC Hydro’s Energy Efficiency programmes address financial and other significant barriers (information, awareness, availability and acceptability) to customers implementing energy efficiency measures.


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With respect to Load Displacement, BC Hydro believes the development of evaluation criteria and methodologies that would be required to compare energy supply resources against Load Displacement projects in a single acquisition process would likely lead to a loss of transparency. Load Displacement projects are planned for and acquired in a comparable but separate process, as described in the 2005 REAP at pages 4-29 to 4-31. Load Displacement bids are evaluated against supply-side avoided costs. Any Load Displacement projects would be brought to the Commission for approval. For reasons similar to those set out above the acquisition processes of the majority of the Canadian and U.S. jurisdictions selected for review do not allow for the bidding of DSM into CFTs or Requests for Proposals (RFP) for energy products. (The list of reviewed acquisition processes is found at Exhibit F to the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen). Most reviewed jurisdictions use separate DSM acquisition processes. One exception is the Ontario Ministry of Energy’s 2004 RFP for 2,500 megawatts (MW) of new clean generation and DSM projects. In the case of this Ontario RFP, of the four projects accepted (with a total of 1,675 MW), only 10 MW was for DSM. It should be noted that Ontario utilities are implementing DSM programmes concurrently with this RFP process. With respect to the F2007 Call, please refer to BC Hydro’s response to BCSEA IR 1.40.3.


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1.40.5 How are greenhouse gas emissions and the associated costs of regulatory liability risks calculated and considered in the F2006 Call and F2007 Call?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The Direct Testimony of Tim Lesiuk (Exhibit B-11), pages 4 to 9 describes the evaluation of greenhouse gas (GHG) risk and evaluation adjustments for the F2006 Call. The Direct Testimony of Mary Memmingsen, pages 9,10, and 12 describes the incorporation of GHG evaluation adjustments into the bid evaluation process. With respect to the F2007 Call, please refer to the response to BCSEA IR 1.40.3.


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1.40.8 Please confirm that neither the F2006 Call nor the F2007 Call contemplates projects in which BC Hydro provides, pays for, or takes the price risk of, the fuel supply.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). With respect to the F2006 Call, BC Hydro does not plan to provide, pay for, or take price risk of, the fuel supply.


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42.0 Reference: BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Procurement Process

Description; section 8. Mandatory Requirements.

1.42.2 What is BC Hydro’s reason for disallowing “split bids”?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro is not disallowing split bids. BC Hydro had originally proposed that all output must be tendered to BC Hydro as a means to streamline and simplify the process and contract. Based on First Nations and stakeholder input and further review, BC Hydro has revised the proposed F2005 Call terms to permit split bids. For Large Projects, the bidder may retain a portion of the project output for sale to third parties. Large Project bidders may tender their project as both a spilt bid and a non split-bid. For Small Projects, all project output (net of station service) must be tendered to BC Hydro.


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Description; section 9. Electricity Purchase Agreements.

1.43.1 Based on what criteria did BC Hydro arrive at 10 MVA as the point at which to distinguish between the SDC (Small Distribution-Connected) and the TLDC (Transmission and Large-Distribution Connected) streams?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The maximum size for a project has been changed from 10 MVA to 10 MW. The 10 MW threshold was selected as the “cut-off” point for small projects because there are increased technical interconnection requirements for projects that are 10 MW and larger. This is consistent with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Small Generator Interconnection Procedures that set 10 MW as the limit for expedited screening.


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Description; section 10. Tendering Options: Clean Projects (page 6).

1.44.1 Please explain what BC Hydro means by “using” the “green attributes” of a project and what rationale BC Hydro has for prohibiting such use.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). For a description of Green Attributes please refer to BC Hydro’s response to BCUC IR 3.101.1. Bidders will be given the option of (a) keeping the Green Attributes for sale or use in other markets; or (b) assigning the Green Attributes to BC Hydro and, for such assignment, receiving a credit in tender evaluation. Bidders that choose option (b) will be prohibited from marketing, selling or trading those Green Attributes to avoid double counting of the environmental benefit. This prohibition recognizes that any value or rights related to the Green Attributes have been assigned, over the term of the Electricity Purchase Agreement (EPA), to BC Hydro and are no longer the property of the seller.


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Description; section 10. Tendering Options: Clean Projects (page 6).

1.44.2 Does BC Hydro assess a monetary value for the “green attributes”? If so, how is the assessment made and what is the amount of the assessment?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please see Q7, lines 8 – 25, of Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen, Exhibit B- 1. Bidders will be given the option of (a) keeping the Green Attributes for sale or use in other markets; or (b) assigning the Green Attributes to BC Hydro and, for such assignment, receiving a credit in the tender evaluation of $3/MWh. Please refer to the response to BCUC IR 3.101.6.


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Description; section 11. Islanding (page 6).

1.46.1 Please define “Islanding.”

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The definition of Islanding is: a condition in which a portion of an electrical power system is energized by one or more power generators, while that portion of the system is electrically separated from the rest of the electrical power system.


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Description; section 17. Time Schedule (page 9).

1.47.1 Please confirm whether the times given are current for the F2006 Call, i.e. CFT Issue: Fall 2005; Tender Submission: Winter 2005/06; and EPA Award: Winter 2006.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please refer to the response to BCOAPO 2.1.2.


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49.0 Reference: BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Evaluation for TLDC

Tenders: Schedule A and BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Evaluation for SDC Tenders: Schedule B.

1.49.1 Please describe BC Hydro’s rationale for making two separate “streams” in the F2006 Call (i.e. up to 200 GWh from “small distribution-connected IPPs”; and up to 800 GWh of firm supply and up to 800 GWh associated non-firm supply from “transmission-connected and large distribution-connected IPPs.:

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please see Question 34, page 30 lines 22-33, of the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11).


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1.49.2 Please describe the rationale for the respective sizes of the two streams (i.e., 200 GWh; and up to 800 GWh firm + 800 GWH non-firm).

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please refer to the response to BCUC IR 3.102.0. With respect to Large Projects, BC Hydro is seeking to procure a minimum of 800 GWh/year of firm electrical energy and associated non-firm electrical energy. BC Hydro selected the 200 GWh target for the Small Project stream on the basis that this provided adequate opportunity to ensure a healthy competition of small cost-effective projects in the province. Based on the results of this Call this volume could be increased or decreased in future calls. Please refer to the response to BCSEA IR. 1.49.1 for a rationale behind a separate Small Project stream.


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1.49.3 Please describe the rationale for the different firm energy/non-firm energy requirements in the two “streams”.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). With respect to the Large Project stream, please refer to the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen and in particular the Answers to Questions 12 and 13. With respect to the Small Project stream, please refer to the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen, page 30, lines 24-33. The Small Project stream is being advanced in recognition of the projected opportunity to acquire small cost-effective increments of non-firm supply to supplement firm energy to be acquired through the F2006 Call. This contribution will be evaluated on a go forward basis and inform future potential calls.


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1.49.4 Please confirm that the “50 MVA of maximum power output” described in Schedule B of the 2005 Open Call for Power is equivalent or approximately equivalent to the 200 GWh cited in the F2006 Call.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11).

Please refer to the response to BCUC IR. 3.122.0.


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1.49.5 Please confirm that projects in the “small distribution-connected IPPs” stream of the F2006 Call will be limited to 10 MVA in size. If so, please explain the rationale for this limitation.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please refer to BC Hydro’s response to BCSEA IR 1.43.1.


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1.49.6 Does BC Hydro expect most or all of the tenders for the 200 GWh stream in the F2006 Call to be small or micro hydro-electric projects? If not, what forms of generation does BC Hydro expect to be bid into this stream?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro does not have any preconceived expectation on the outcome of the Small Project stream in the F2006 Call. The stakeholder engagement process included potential bidders interested in the Small Project stream, representing a wide variety of technologies including, but not limited to, hydro, biomass, biogas and waste heat.


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1.49.7 Will BC Hydro screen hydro-electric projects bid into the F2006 or F2007 Calls for environmental criteria, including whether they are “run-of-river” or employ impoundment of water? If so, how will such screening be done?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro does not intend to use separate evaluation processes for tendered run-of-river hydro and storage hydro projects. BC Hydro proposes to carry out a Project Risk Assessment for each tender that will consider the likelihood that the project described in the tender can achieve COD by the guaranteed/target COD tendered by the bidder, having regard to the status of several factors including permitting, financing, site acquisition, design, engineering and procurement, and other critical project development activities. Such assessment will be done on a pass/fail basis. Please refer to the response to BCUC IR 3.117.0 for additional detail concerning the Proposed Project Risk Assessment guidelines. In constructing the resulting portfolio BC Hydro is targeting 50% BC Clean Electricity. According to the guidelines issued by the Provincial Government, both storage hydro and run-of-river hydro are considered BC Clean Electricity.


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1.49.8 What forms of generation does BC Hydro expect to be bid into the “transmission and large distribution-connected” stream of the F2006 Call?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro does not have any preconceived expectation on the outcome of the Large Project stream in the F2006 Call. The stakeholder engagement process included several potential bidders interested in the Large Project stream, representing a wide variety of technologies including, but not limited to, hydro, gas-fired, biomass, biogas, coal, wind, and geothermal.


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1.49.9 What forms of generation does BC Hydro expect to be excluded from, or disadvantaged within, the “transmission and large distribution-connected” stream of the F2006 Call?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro is designing the F2006 Call to acquire the necessary firm energy product. While different technologies have different intrinsic characteristics, BC Hydro believes all available technologies, except for nuclear, can compete within the F2006 Call framework.


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1.49.10 How will BC Hydro evaluate – in monetary and qualitative terms – any non-firm energy tha is bid ito the “transmission and large distribution-connected” stream? How will the non-firm energy component of a tender be evaluated against firm energy in competing tenders?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). For the Large Project stream, non-firm energy is priced by reference to the tendered firm energy and as such, evaluating the non-firm energy from a pricing perspective is not necessary. The evaluation methodology includes non-price considerations, including potential over exposure to non-firm energy.


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1.49.11 Why does the Adjusted Bid Price (ABP) reflect the cost of energy delivered to the Lower Mainland?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please refer to the response to BCSEA IR 2.21.0


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1.49.12 Does the ABP standard of delivery to the Lower Mainland reflect actual, or estimated, costs to BC Hydro? If estimated, please provide the calculation.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). In conducting the evaluation methodology for the F2006 Call, the adjusted bid price for each tender will be calculated using estimates of interconnecton and transmission-related costs (including network upgrades) that will be borne directly or indirectly by BC Hydro. The estimated costs will not be known until the time of tender submission.


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1.49.13 In addition to delivery to the Lower Mainland, what other methods has BC Hydro considered for assigning transmission adjustments to tenders? If any, please provide details.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Consistent with evaluation practices used in past calls, tendered bid prices will be adjusted for evaluation purposes for delivery to the Lower Mainland. For this call, BC Hydro has not considered other methods for assigning transmission adjustments. Please refer to response to BCSEA IR 2.21.0 for further explanation.


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1.49.15 Please specify what the “heavy load hour” and “light load hour” periods are, by month.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The Heavy Load Hours (HLH) period consists of hours 0600 to 2200 PST Monday through Saturday inclusive, excluding British Columbia statutory holidays. Light Load Hours consists of all hours other than HLH.


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1.49.16 Why are SDC bidders not given the option to elect the “Hourly Firm Option”?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please refer to the response to BCOAPO IR 1.8.1.


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50.0 Reference: BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Term Sheet for TLDC

Tenders: Schedule C and BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Term Sheet for SDC Tenders: Schedule D.

1.50.1 Will an “expansion of [a] Seller’s Plant” (Schedule C: Operation, page 3; Schedule D: Operation, page 2) trigger a requirement to seek regulatory approval by the Utilities Commission?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The EPAs are expected to include a clause that will permit a successful bidder to increase the size of its project by up to 10% on notice to BC Hydro at any time up to 30 days prior to COD, provided that all necessary interconnection/transmission related studies have been completed. As such, a successful bidder plant may be expanded by up to 10%, provided that the other requirements noted above are met, and is not expected to trigger a requirement to seek regulatory approval from the Commission. It is expected that EPAs awarded pursuant to the F2006 Call will contain a provision providing that the successful bidder will not expand its facility after the EPA execution date without BC Hydro’s prior consent, and that the successful bidder will not make, without BC Hydro’s prior consent, any modification or addition, or series of modifications or additions, post-COD to its facility which could have an adverse effect on the successful bidder’s ability to perform its obligations under the EPA. Under the proposed EPA provision outlined above, any post-COD expansion and any post-COD modification which could have an adverse effect on the successful bidder’s ability to perform under the EPA would likely require an amendment to the EPA. Pursuant to the definition of “energy supply contract” set out in section 68 of the Utilities Commission Act (Act), amendments to EPAs must be filed with the Commission under section 71 of the Act. However, this is an issue that will have to be reviewed by both BC Hydro and the independent power producer (IPP) at the time of such expansion or modification is proposed as it is difficult at this time to envision all possible scenarios. Pursuant to Minister’s Order M-22-0205 dated 6 June 2002, any expansion of a successful bidder’s facility initiated by an IPP would not require a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, as long as the expansion is related to that part of the facility which produces and sells a power service to BC Hydro.


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50.0 Reference: BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Term Sheet for TLDC

Tenders: Schedule C and BC Hydro 2005 Open Call for Power Term Sheet for SDC Tenders: Schedule D.

1.50.2 Why is the escalation of the firm energy price set at 50% of the CPI (Schedule C: Price – Initial Term, page 5; Schedule D: Price – Initial Term, page 4)?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The escalation of the firm energy price is designed such that a bidder tenders a percentage of the bid price (between 0% and 50%) that escalates at 100% of CPI. This approach is consistent with previous calls. BC Hydro seeks to limit the potential for cost escalation flow throughs in a way that is fair and optimizes the risk allocation. The escalation provisions allow bidders to address the risk and uncertainty that their revenue stream does not match their cost stream in a way that limits the exposure for ratepayers. Further, BC Hydro anticipates that for most projects the majority of the project costs will be capital costs and associated financing costs, which costs are not subject to inflation post construction.


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51.0 Reference: Schedule C: Environmental Attributes: Permit Allocations, page

10 and Schedule D: Environmental Attributes: Permit Allocations, page 7: “Seller retains all liability for on-site emissions and the permit allocations and other rights arising from on-site reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.” (Also Schedule C: Clean Projects: Liabilities, page 11; and Schedule D: Clean Projects: Liabilities, page 7)

1.51.1 How is the public interest in greenhouse gas emissions reductions affected by this term?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). It is expected that any EPAs awarded pursuant to the F2006 Call will contain a permit allocation provision providing that if a bidder elects to transfer all “Green Attributes” to BC Hydro and receive the $3/MWh green credit in the tender evaluation process, it will retain all liability for on-site emissions. The definition of “Green Attributes” is broad and includes all credits or other similar instruments for assumed displacement of off-site generation (please refer to the response to BCUC IR 3.101.1). As described at page 3 of the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11), bidders electing to transfer Green Attributes to BC Hydro must obtain EcoLogo certification by one year after COD and maintain EcoLogo certification throughout the remainder of the EPA term. As set out in the response to BCSEA IR 1.45.2 (Exhibit B-4), EcoLogo addresses GHG emissions by certifying only low-impact renewable energy sources. For those low-impact renewable energy sources with air emissions, for example biomass-fuelled projects, GHG emissions are low or zero net carbon dioxide equivalent on a life cycle basis as the GHG is recycled between crop production and combustion. Therefore, it is unlikely that such projects would have any significant permit allocations related to on-site emission reductions.


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1.51.2 Is BC Hydro of the opinion that it can contractually avoid liability for greenhouse gas emissions that it causes or that arise from its purchases of electricity?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). BC Hydro is of the opinion that it can contractually allocate the liability for GHG emissions to the party that can best manage the risk. Please refer to the answers to Questions 30 and 31 of the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B- 11).


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1.51.3 Has BC Hydro assessed the cost and feasibility of offering terms to cover the purchase of Kyoto-compliant greenhouse gas offsets by the IPPs with which it contracts for generation? If so, please provide the assessment or assessments.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). The assessment of potential future costs of GHG regulatory compliance is set out in a report prepared by Natsource LLC attached as Exhibit B of of the Direct Testimony of Richard Rosenzweig (Exhibit B-11). The incorporation of these costs into an evaluation adjustment for bids is found in the Direct Testimony of Tim Lesiuk (Exhibit B-11), pages 4 –7.


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52.0 Reference: Schedule C: GHG Requirements, page 11 and Schedule D: GHG

Requirements, page 8.

1.52.1 By “offset” does BC Hydro mean Kyoto-compliant greenhouse gas emissions offset? If not, why not?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). All references to GHG offsets in Exhibit B-11 refer to compliance instruments acceptable to the regulatory body selected to regulate GHG emissions in the jurisdiction where the facility is located in lieu of GHG emission permits.


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1.52.2 Is Option A premised on the Buyer (i.e. BC Hydro) purchasing greenhouse gas offsets and being required to do so by law or regulation?



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1.52.3 Under Option A, if no offsets for emissions were required, would the seller still be required to make payments to the Buyer?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). As set out in that Direct Testimony, if the bidder chooses to retain the risk related to GHG emissions, than all GHG-related risks reside with the bidder and the bidder must take these into account when preparing its fixed price tender.


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1.52.4 How would the rate for GHG payments be determined under Option A?



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1.52.5 Has BC Hydro estimated per tonne costs of offsetting GHG emissions using (a) Kyoto-compliant and (b) non-Kyoto-compliant offsets? If so, please provide the most current estimates.

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). a) The Direct Testimony of Tim Lesiuk (Exhibit B-11), page 6, identifies the

estimated cost of compliance BC Hydro believes is consistent with potential GHG costs under plausible future GHG policy scenarios and is conservative enough to adequately capture the potential risk to ratepayers of future GHG regulations.

b) BC Hydro anticipates zero incremental cost per tonne CO2e to provide non-

Kyoto compliant offsets for existing voluntary offset commitments.


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1.52.6 Please define “BC based offsets.” Are they Kyoto-compliant?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). Please refer to the definition of the term “GHG emission offsets” found at page 25, lines 19-25 of the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen. As part of the F2006 Call, BC Hydro is not proposing that there be a BC based offset requirement.


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1.52.7 Please confirm that BC Hydro is proposing that where an IPP has a project that attracts a requirement for GHG offsets the IPP, rather than BC Hydro, would be required to pay for such offsets?



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1.52.8 If so, does BC Hydro expect that IPPs will gamble on a zero risk of such liability so as to minimize the size of the their bid energy charge?

RESPONSE: The reference is to draft documents posted to BC Hydro’s website in March 2005 which are not part of the record, and which have been superseded by the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11). As a component of the Project Risk Assessment, all thermal projects will be required to submit their GHG mitigation plans for review. BC Hydro will review the plans and assess the likelihood the projects can achieve the guaranteed COD selected by the bidders and the likelihood the projects can deliver the contracted energy output for the full EPA terms.

Joint Industry Electricity Steering Committee Information Request No. 1.2.0 Dated: May 9, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

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Revised Response issued August 12, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority 2005 Resource Expenditure and Acquisition Plan (“REAP”)

2.0 Reference: Exh B-1, Page 1-4; Page 2-44; Page 2-44 Rev. 1;

Page 2-46, 2-47; Explanation: BC Hydro has entered into EPAs as a result of Calls. Information on the unit costs is only available on average by dividing the expenditures by the contracted energy.

1.2.0 BC Hydro states that:

• “Natural gas prices and exchange rate changes have also led to

differences in the contract prices. On average since the RRA the gas prices in terms of C$/GJ have gone up by approximately 11%, increasing the EPA expenditures.”

• “… BC Hydro is concerned about a number of uncertainties, including:

supply and demand uncertainties with respect to load, IPP attrition (for example, local municipality interests in re-zoning proposals), the potential phase-out of Burrard, development hurdles for the DPP project, and energy savings from DSM initiatives.”

a) Identify the costs and energy from any contracts that provide service

in non-integrated areas. b) For each call, by fiscal year, provide the range of costs per kWh and

the average cost per kWh. c) Why has BC Hydro not identified gas supply and prices as a concern? d) How does the Acquisition Plan and F2006 call and the criteria

imposed therein take into account the uncertainties identified by BC Hydro and the objective of “an environment which fosters competitive, realistic and disciplined pricing”?

e) Does BC Hydro plan to make an open unrestricted competitive call that would allow large-scale economic generation or supply such as that contemplated by Site C or the Alternative Resource Plans to participate? If so, when?

RESPONSE: d) Uncertainties related to supply and demand, including issues related to

Burrard Thermal Generating Station, energy savings from DSM and the termination of the Duke Point Power (DPP) Project will be addressed in evaluation and award stage of the process. With the revision to the F2006 Call target to a minimum award of 1000 GWh BC Hydro plans to retain the right to modify the volume of awards based on the updated supply/demand balance amongst other things. Please refer to the Direct Testimony of Mary Hemmingsen (Exhibit B-11) and in particular the answers to question 5, 8, 9-11, 15-20, 22, 24, 26, 30-31, 33-37.

Joint Industry Electricity Steering Committee Information Request No. 1.2.0 Dated: May 9, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

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Revised Response issued August 12, 2005 British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority 2005 Resource Expenditure and Acquisition Plan (“REAP”)

e) The opportunities for the type of large scale economic generation projects,

such as identified in the information request, will be informed by the 2005 Integrated Electricity Plan and the resulting Long Term Acquisition Plan to be filed with the Commission in late 2005 and addressed as part of the 2006 REAP.

Documents

BCOAPO 1 008 01 Supply Side Energy Calls · study methodology, a summary of the residential and commercial base case results, an assessment of the capacity reduction measures that