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Bruce Braes
Risk & Quality ManagerWest Pilbara Iron Ore Project
Australia
What is Horizon Scanning?Horizon Scanning is...
“…. the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.”
(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)
• Thinking “Out of the Box”
• Exposure to multiple sources, ideas, and challenges
• Getting out of the comfort zone both personal and organisational
Horizon scanning is……Horizon scanning is……
Wide Ranging Research Techniques- Reaching beyond usual sources
Anticipating the future – Looking beyond usual timescales
Using
HORIZON SCANNING IS NOT………
PREDICTING THE FUTURE
WHY ?• Consider more than the ‘single expected Consider more than the ‘single expected
future’future’
• Analyse a ‘range of possible futures’ and Analyse a ‘range of possible futures’ and consider their implications on today’s consider their implications on today’s decisionsdecisions
• Facilitates to greater flexibility and Facilitates to greater flexibility and agility in strategic planningagility in strategic planning
• Enhance the resilience of the organisationEnhance the resilience of the organisation
Intelligence versus Evidence
Change
Trends
Patterns
DRIVERS
• Organisation Wide • Group Think • Project Focus • Issue Focused • Thinking Out of the Box • Citation Analysis • Scouting and Researching Expanded Networks • Stakeholder Surveys • Social Media • Culture
PESTLE Framework
Legal & Regulatory
Technological
Social
Economic
NOW, NEXT, NEWAPPROACH
ConclusionIn order to avoid the
We need to look to the future rather than dwell on the past