BartolettoFullPaper

8/18/2019 BartolettoFullPaper

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Is the Italian public debt really unsustainable? An historical

comparison (1861-2010)

Abstract


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"ntrod#ct$on

8ne of the "reatest issues in *talian macroeconomic performance since the birth of the *talian State has been

the e=traorinary fluctuation in the public ebt ratio.


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particularly for the %'-%?%/%& perio. ) *t shoul be stresse that our results, base on Baffi"iAs

reconstruction, iffer massively from those of scholars :ho continue to employ *S


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4in"oms. Secon, throu"hout the stuy perio the ebt?to?$DP ratio :as on avera"e about ') , :ith t:o

lar"e pea4s observe in the late %/th an )(th centuries.


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the ifficulties e=perience in ebt mana"ement in recent ecaes is the very hi"h buren of interest

payment, on avera"e - of $DP, the lar"est share e=perience since Unification.

able 1 /#bl$c debt./, &r$mar! de*$c$t, $nterest s&end$ng, real ./ rate o* growt), $n*lat$on rate +162%2010-

162%113 114%14 146%150 151%2010

/#bl$c debt./

5Central $overnment6

Mean /(.' %(.- &(. '&.

Min &/.& (1862) -./ (1945) ).% (1947) &&./ (1971)

Ma= %%'. ( 1894) %'.( (1920) &/. (1946) %%/.& (1994)

St. Dev. %. ). &.% ).)/r$mar! .e*$c$t./

5State Bu"et6

Mean ?&.) .& %. %.&

Min ?.& (1879) ?.% 51925) ?(.- (1961) ?%(.% (1997)

Ma= ).& (1862) )&./ (1916) . (1946) '. (1987)

St. Dev. %. /.- ).% ."nterest s&end$ng./

5State Bu"et6

Mean &./ &.& %.( ./Min %.- (1862) (. (1945) (. (1964) (./- (1971)

Ma= ./ (1894) ./ (1933) %.& (1956) %%. (1993)

St. Dev. (./ %.% (.) )./eal ./ rate o* growt)

5)(%( mar4et prices6

Mean %.- ?(.& '.) ).('

Min ?.' 51867) ?%/.& (1944) &. (1954) ?.) (2009)

Ma= -.' (1865) /./ (1937) &.( (1946) .% (1973, 1976)

St. Dev. ).) -.' -.& ).&"n*lat$on rate

5$DP eflator6

Mean (.- %'.( '. '.%)

Min ?%. (1875) ?%(. (1927) ?). (1949) %.' (1999)

Ma= %%. (1873) %).- (1944) --.) (1946) )(.' (1980)

St. Dev. .' &&.& %.( -.%/

Source1 ata from @rancese an Pace 5)(('6 for national ebtH Baffi"i 5)(%%6 for $DPH 7$S 5)(%%6 for revenues an

e=penses.


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Durin" this perio, output "ro:th remaine :ell belo: the avera"e recore in the avance European

economies, :ith a "ro:th rate of %.) a year. Slo: economic "ro:th, heavy fiscal pressure an hi"h

national ebt :ere the main features of the ;ne: in"om of *taly> 5Marcello De Cecco, %//(6. 9fter

Unification, the ebts inherite from the constituent 5pre?Unification6 States ha been mer"e an

transforme into the ne: 4in"omAs public ebt. 9ccorin" to the recent reconstruction by the Ban4 of *taly

5@rancese an Pace, )(('6 of the ebt series, an by Baffi"i 5)(%%6 of the $DP, the stoc4 of ebt amounte to

& of *talian $DP. +i"h nominal an real ebt interest rates, to"ether :ith a lo: $DP "ro:th rate, 4ept

the ratio of *talian ebt to $DP hi"h throu"hout the perio. -

*n Gust five years, from %'-% to %'--, the national ebt ha more than triple, from % to &.& million current

euros.


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Public ebt on $DP :as on avera"e about & urin" the entire perio 5%'-)?%'6, thou"h it e=ceee

/) in %'%.%) 9fter %'%, a "raual but steay reuction reverse the tren of the ebt series but, as @i"ure

) sho:s, there follo:e a substantial Gump of the public ebtF$DP ratio from about in %' to // in

%'-, the latter mainly cause by the ynamic of the nominal $DP. 9ctually, the stron" contraction in the

*talian economy, :ith the real $DP rate of "ro:th eclinin" from . in %' to ?%./ in %'-, entaile a

substantial eflationary process that reuce the inflation rate from ?&. in %' to ?%. in %', an

"enerate consierable iseuilibrium in public finances.

($g#re 2: bl$c debt +le*t- and *$nal re'en#es and o#tla!s +r$g)t-, &ro&ort$on o* ./, 161%113 +&ercentage-

Source1 ata ta4en from @rancese an Pace 5)(('6, Baffi"i 5)(%%6, 7$S 5)(%%6.


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in %'/). 8ther factors, such as the elimination of the corso #or$oso 5%''&6, the nationalization of the

rail:ays, the massive investment in rail:ay construction an an eually lar"e increase in public :or4s,

contribute to e=acerbate the public imbalance. Public e=penses an public ebt "re: especially urin" the

Crispi "overnment 5%'''?/-6 because of very costly military e=peitions to 9frica.


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:here g stans for the nominal "ro:th rate, t an + %

t are, respectively, the level of public ebt an primary

eficit, both e=presse as a share of $DP, * t . By reformulatin" Euation 5%6 to hi"hli"ht the ynamic of the

ebt?to?$DP ratio :e "et1

( ) t

tot

t

t

t

t

t

t

t

*

+

g

g

*

,

*

,

*

,+

+

−=−

−

−

−

−

%%

%

%

%. 5)6


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)e &er$od o* t)e two 7orld 7ars: 114%14

Durin" the perio %/%?%/, the t:o 3orl 3ars ha consierable conseuences on the public ebt an

primary eficit to $DP, :hich reache, to"ether :ith the inflation rate, the hi"hest levels of the :hole

sample analyse 5%'-%?)(%(6. @rom %/% to %/ the avera"e "ro:th rate of real $DP :as ne"ative,

inflation ran on avera"e at about %' :hile the ratio of ebt to $DP :as %( . +o:ever, the ynamics of

the economic variables :ere very ifferent urin" the @irst 3orl 3ar, the @ascist perio an the Secon

3orl 3ar. 9lthou"h the t:o sub?perios of the 3orl 3ars both e=perience a severe slo:o:n in real

"ro:th an mainly monetary inflation, they iffer in the ma"nitue of some processes. *n particular, money

supply an prices "re: more in the secon conflict compare to the first one.

.he 'irst /orl /ar


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Preparation for the :ar effort an in particular the stren"thenin" of the army an navy le to a si"nificant

increase in efence spenin", :hich ae to the cost of maintainin" troops in !ibya.


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nominal :a"es :ere "reatly increase, especially in %/)(, an this contribute to increase the inflationary

process.

E=ports si"nificantly ecrease an serious problems arose in financin" imports of foo, coal an ra:

materials.


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ta= revenues.%' +o:ever, the reuction in the ebtF$DP ratio, from %% in %/) to /& in %/)-, :as

mainly achieve by robust $DP "ro:th 5on avera"e .- bet:een %/)) an %/)-6 an a stron" recovery in

inflation 5on avera"e &. bet:een %/)) an %/)- :ith a pea4 of %- in %/)6. *n %/)- the obGective of a

balance bu"et :as achieve. *n aition, bet:een %/) an %/)- the amount of forei"n ebt iminishe

consierably than4s to the si"nin" of treaties, :ith a si"nificant reuction of :ar ebts to:ars the Unite

States an $reat Britain.%/ Startin" from Iuly %/)-, funin" problems emer"e to rene: the stoc4 of floatin"

ebt.


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financial mana"ement, an the issuin" of 9M?lire by allie forces contribute to the inflationary process

5Michele @ratianni an @ranco Spinelli, )((%6.) Despite the hu"e bu"et eficit, bet:een %/& an %/,

hyperinflation, :hich soare to %& in %/, allo:e a far hi"her nominal income "ro:th than that of ebt,

:ith a rastic reuction in the ebtF$DP ratio, amountin" in %/ to -'. +yperinflation :ipe out the ebt

service :hich ha so heavily influence the previous perios.

.ebt stab$l$8at$on d#r$ng t)e econom$c boom: 146%150


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Source1 ata from @rancese an Pace 5)(('6, Baffi"i 5)(%%6, 7$S 5)(%%6.


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availability of reserves :ere no lon"er an obstacle to the possibility of improvements in infrastructure an

inustrial facilities an the reuction of unemployment.

($scal $nd$sc$&l$ne: 150%2010


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Source1 ata from @rancese an Pace 5)(%%6, Baffi"i 5)(%%6, 7$S 5)(%%6.

interest

rate 5as a normal threshol6. *nee, future e=pectations on inflation 5even in the lon" run6 coul be reliably

base on the set of information containe in past history.


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8bviously, in those years, lon"?term securities :ere secure only throu"h aministrative measures 5pushin"

ban4s to hol securities in their portfolios6, as ;free> investors virtually abanone the mar4et. 9s a

conseuence, *taly approache the %/'(s :ith a short an rapily eclinin" maturity of public ebt. *n %/'%,

about -( of the ebt ha a maturity of less than a year, a fi"ure certainly an"erous for the years to come.

9s pointe out by numerous stuies of the time, there e=ists a close an positive relationship bet:een short

an concentrate maturities an crises of confience.)/

.he 1980s .he worsening o# the #iscal im&alance

@rom the secon oil shoc4 to the late %/'(s, the *talian public eficit hovere aroun %( of $DP. No other

3estern country reporte similar results.&( 9s sho:n in @i"ure , public ebt "re: very rapily 5ebt

e=plosion6 until its stabilization in the mi of the %//(s.


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spenin" occurre in the presence of an inaeuate ta= system :hich :as unable to follo: the chan"es in

income flo:s.&&


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crisis. *n these circumstances, $iuliano 9mato 5a socialist Prime Minister6 unertoo4 a ;healin" process> of

public finance.


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the financial imbalance that staye close to %%( of $DP urin" the ecae %//-?)((. Durin" the perio

%//?)(%(, the avera"e contribution of the "ro:th ivien to the ynamic of the ebt to $DP ratio 5efine

in Euation %6, :as ne"ative, ?&.', but the positive contribution of the total eficit 5:hich amounte to

J&.-6 cho4e off the "ro:th effect on the ynamic of the ebtF$DP ratio 5on avera"e ?(.6.


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:here + stans for the net?of?interest eficit, an i is the appropriate interest rate.&

+o:ever, the P#BC is not unanimously accepte as a si"nal of fiscal solvency. 9n alternative vie: is the so?

calle inicator approach, :hich pays less attention to the P#BC, focusin" instea on inicators of

sustainability that are not "roune in theory 58livier Blanchar et al. %//(H Ni"el Chal4 an 7ichar

+emmin", )(((6.

3ithin the time series approach,


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fiscal rule. By allo:in" the primary surplus to epen upon its past value, on the one han :e control for a

possible eficit bias an, more "enerally, for a slu""ish bu"et processH on the other, :e estimate the

coefficients of the fiscal rule limitin" the statistical problems ori"inatin" from autocorrelate resiuals. (

8ur epenent variable is the primary eficit?to?$DP ratio, , an :e estimate the follo:in" "overnmentAs

reaction function1

( ) t

t

7

t

t

t

t

t

t

7

t

*

+

*

g 5il1%enin)+7c0cle

*

,c

*

+ε ρ α α β +++++=

−

−

−

−

%

%

)%

%

% 56

$iven that the ebt time series, :hich is collecte on a monthly basis, has been annualize by ta4in" the

value recore at the en of the calenar year, in orer to respect the al"ebra of the bu"et constraint, the

ebt ratio is consiere :ith one la" len"th in the policy reaction function estimate throu"h the 8!S

re"ression, . Moreover, :e control for the influence on the primary bu"et from e=planatory variables

accountin" for temporary "overnment spenin", an a business cycle1 respectively, the military component

of public spenin" 5 il%ening 6 an the +oric4?Prescott cycle of real $DP 5+ccle6.


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113 5(.-6 5(.((6 5(.(&6 5(.%)6 5(.(6 %/(-

114%

14

?)./

5).6

?(.(%

5(.()6

?(.%

5(.(-6

(.'

5(.%%6

(.)&

5(.(/6

%/ (./ (. (.(((H (.((%

146%

150

&.

5%.)%6

?(.(/

5(.(6

(.(

5(.(6

?(.)-

5(.&6

(.

5(.(-6

%/-' (./% (./& (.&)H (.((

151%

200

.

5).-6

?(.(

5(.(%6

?(.%/

5(.%6

?%.

5%.&6

(.&

5(.(/6

%/', %// (.'/ (.( (.)(H (.


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:hich states that as lon" as the primary bu"et is in balance, the ebt "ro:s at a rate "iven by the ifference

bet:een the avera"e interest rate on public ebt, i ,an rate of "ro:th of $DP, g , if :e substitute the fiscal

rule of Euation 56, :e obtain an 975)6 form for the ebt process1

5-6

9fter some manipulations, Euation 5-6 can be e=presse as follo:s1

56


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ifference euationH hence it can be solve for the steay state value of the primary eficitFsurplus as

follo:s1

5%(6

an rearran"in"1

5%%6

:here the hat symbol inicates the steay state value of the variable of interest, :hile the term c inclues all

the e=o"enous an constant parameters.

Euation 5%%6 states that if a "overnment follo:s a fiscal policy rule such as that e=presse in Euation 56,

then in steay state the primary eficitFsurplus is a stable share, , of the ebt. 8f course, sustainability

reuires that the β coefficient is ne"ative. +ence Euation 5%%6 states that in steay state the fiscal rule

implies a primary surplus.


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162%113 114%14 146%150 151%200

O (./ (.)& (. (.&

-β


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accounts resultin" from the soverei"n ebt crisisQ *n the ne=t section :e elve into the comparison bet:een

the ifferent historical perios to ans:er this apparent contraiction.

/ol$c! $m&l$cat$ons

@rom our analysis on the ebt ynamic in *taly in an historical perspective, there emer"e not only

remar4able recurrences an parallels bet:een past an present but also important contrasts, :hich can help

unerstan :hat policies coul succee in tac4lin" the current ebt crisis.

9mon" the four phases of the ebt ynamic, t:o episoes of fiscal consoliation occurre after the :artime

perios. *n %/)- there :as a si"nificant reuction in :ar ebts to:ars the Unite States an $reat Britain

:hich, alon" :ith robust economic "ro:th an an inflationary process, helpe curb the ebt from %% in

%/) to /& in %/)-. Moreover, in %/)- the @ascist re"ime e=perience a partial efault by implementin"

force consoliation of the public ebt 5the !ittorio loan6.

9 ne: pea4 of %%) :as reache in %/) :hich :as, ho:ever, short?lastin". *nee, by %/ the ebt?to?

$DP ratio ha fallen to -'. 9s :e note above, this e=traorinary performance :as the conseuence of

e=traorinary hi"h inflation an commitment to a fiscal rule.

9s to the remainin" t:o perios, %'-)?%/%& an %/%?)((/, in the previous section :e sa: that accorin" to

the sustainability conition, in recent ecaes there has been a very stron" commitment to fiscal solvency.

Nonetheless, by comparin" the t:o perios, :e have the impression that the former is an e=ample of

successful ebt mana"ement, :hereas the possible outcome of the current ebt crisis is less clear. *n orer to

appreciate the possible reasons motivatin" this ifferent performance, :e can start by comparin" the level of

the ebt?to?$DP ratio, restrictin" the sample to the years %'%?%/%% an %/%?)(%%. Since :e are intereste

in havin" the ebt ynamics in a sin"le "raph, :e can consier the year of the pea4s, %'/ an %//, as the

time zero 5horizontal a=is in @i"ure -6H it is then possible to escribe the pattern of the ebt?to?$DP ratio in

the years precein" the pea4 5liste as ne"ative numbers on the horizontal a=is6 an urin" the perio after

the pea4 5liste as positive numbers6.


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($g#re 6: debt%to%./ rat$o d#r$ng t)e &er$ods 151%111 +das)ed l$ne- and 151%2011 +sol$d l$ne-

;o#rce: data *rom (rancese and /ace +200-,


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curb the ebt ynamic, reachin", in ten years, a level similar to that recore a century before, even in a

:orse macroeconomic settin" an after an e=plosive tren in ebt ynamics.

Unfortunately, startin" from the tenth year from the pea4s, there :as a stron" iver"ence in the ebt?to?$DP

ratios bet:een the t:o perios.


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@i"ure . @irst, :hile in the last ecae of the %/th century ebt contraction starte before the pea4 5for

instance the ebt ynamic :as ne"ative urin" the years %''?%''- an %'''?%'/(6, urin" the perio %/'%?

%// the process of ebt accumulation :ent on uninterrupte 5this is consistent :ith the steep slope of the

ebt?to?$DP ratio alreay note in @i"ure -6. *nterestin"ly, the cumulative contraction of the ebt?to?$DP

ratio in the %( years subseuent to the pea4s amounte to )% points urin" both perios. +o:ever, the ebt

reuction :as mostly concentrate in the early years after the %// pea4, :hereas, after a sharp aGustment

in %'/ 5?6 it :as more "raual after the episoe recore in %'/. 9s e=pecte, :hat loo4s very ifferent

is the ynamic of the ebt after the first ecae from the recore ma=imum, i.e. %/(?%/%% an )((?)(%%,

:hich is clearly sustainable only for the first episoe, :hen variations in the ebt?to?$DP ratio :ere al:ays

ne"ative. 3hat can help to e=plain these ifferent patternsQ

Some features are common to both perios. @irst of all, fiscal stance :as restrictive, :ith a commitment to

run primary surpluses, as ocumente by the estimate fiscal rules. Moreover, a positive contribution to

fiscal sustainability :as "iven by a reuction in nominal interest rates, achieve, urin" the $iolitti perio,

by the ecision 5%/(-6 to follo: European countries in pursuin" ;rent conversion>, :hereas the ecision to

become a founer?member of the EMU in %/// :as a maGor chan"e for fiscal sustainability, :ith interest

rates conver"in" rapily to:ars the European avera"e. +o:ever, :hile the cost of ebt, as a proportion of

$DP, ecline from ./ in %'/ to &.) in %/(-, :ith a further reuction subseuent to ;rent conversion>

leain" to a share of ).) in %/%), the very hi"h level of interest spenin" achieve in %// 5%(.& of $DP6

ecline to -. :hen the EMU :as establishe, to reach a minimum of . of $DP in )((.

9lon" :ith a hi"her buren of the interest payment on outstanin" ebt, a further e=planation for one of the

main causes of the unsuccessful ebt consoliation observe in recent ecaes is the poorer economic

performance compare to the $iolitti era. 3hile on avera"e there :ere no lar"e ifferences bet:een the

nominal "ro:th rate of $DP 5e=cluin" the years of the current contraction6, the performance of real $DP

has been very isappointin" since the %//(s. *n @i"ure ' :e compare the economic performance urin" the

perios %'/?%/%& an %//?)(%&H a"ain, :e aopt the convention to set to zero the year of the pea4

5respectively %'/ an %//6, so that the first perio is liste on the horizontal a=is as runnin" from time

zero 5%'/6 to time %/ 5%/%&6.


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($g#re : ann#al real +le*t- and nom$nal +r$g)t- ./ growt) rates $n t)e !ears *ollow$ng t)e debt%to%./ &eak> a

com&ar$son between &er$ods 14%113 +das)ed- and 14%2013 +sol$d-

Source1 ata from @rancese an Pace 5)(('6, Baffi"i 5)(%%6.

Durin" the time span %//?)((( the performance of the *talian economy in real terms 5@i"ure ', left panel6,

on avera"e ).%, :as no :orse than that recore urin" the previous century 5%.6.


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oppressive re"ulation an lo: level of human capital :ere the main factors propose to e=plain the very poor

prouctivity ynamic. *n aition, espite the fact that urin" the %//(s many important structural reforms

5privatization, ban4in" an company la:, pension schemes, :a"e policy6 :ere launche, they :ere not

sufficient to stimulate a veritable competitive mar4et, an their effects :ere unermine by the inaeuacy

of the le"al system an the buren of bureaucracy.) Such lar"e ifferences in the recent macroeconomic

frame:or4, compare to the $iolitti era, e=plain the ifficulties encountere in mana"in" fiscal

consoliation in recent years.


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statistical analysis. +o:ever, a preliminary tas4 :as to compare ifferent sources on the available ata 5$DP,

ta=ation, public spenin" an public ebt6 an to reconstruct them.


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$overnment, Social Security funs. Since :e use an annual ata set, :e refer to the level of ebt recore at

&%F%) of each year.

9s for the public eficit, :e have no measure consistent :ith the efinition of $eneral $overnment 5$$6,

since to our 4no:le"e the only lon" time series of public e=penitures is the one recently reconstructe by

the State $eneral 9ccountin" Department :hich refers to the State Bu"et, a subsector of the $$ :hich

inclues many, thou"h not all, of the statistical units belon"in" to the Central $overnment sector 5ES9/6.


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have uner"one several revisions 5$ior"io @uR, %/-/6 because they :ere inconsistent on several accounts,

an information on methos an sources use to collate ata :ere not clear.

9t the en of the %/'(s, the Ban4 of *taly promote a completely ne: reconstruction of *talian National

9ccountin", :hose results :ere publishe in four volumes eite by $uio 7ey 5%//), )(((6.


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e*erences

9lesina, 9lberto an 7oberto Perotti. ;@iscal E=pansions an 9Gustments in 8CED Countries.>

conomic olic %(, 5%//61 )(?)'.

9n"eloni, *"nazio an !uca Deola. ;@rom the E7M to the EU781 ne: evience on economic an

policy conver"ence amon" EU countries>, European Central Ban4 3or4in" Papers, No , May

%///.

9rtoni, 7oberto, an Sara Biancini. ;*l ebito pubblico allAUnitR a o""i.> *n toria economica

@!talia , eite by Pierlui"i Ciocca an $ianni , CESifo

3or4in" Paper Series No.&)%, CESifo $roup Munich, )(%%.

Bayoumi,

*n ?stment an rowth in the ro%ean onetar Union, eite by @rancisco


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TTTT. ;, CESifo 3or4in" Paper %-, )((.

TTTT. ;9re stationary an Cointe"ration 7estrictions really necessary for the *ntertemporal Bu"et

ConstraintQ> Bornal o# onetar conomics, 56,5)((61 %'&?%'.

Boltho, 9nrea. ;Disavanzo pubblico e strate"ie i rientro in alcuni paesi europei.> *n !l +isaan$o

&&lico in !talia Catra trttrale e olitiche i Rientro, eite by Ente Einaui Bolo"na, il

Mulino, %//).

Boro, Michael, Barry Eichen"reen, Daniela lin"ebiel, Maria Solea Martinez?Peria. ;*s the

crisis problem "ro:in" more severeQ> conomic olic, %-, 9pril, 5)((%61 %?').

Boro, Michael an +u"h 7oc4off. ; *M@

3or4in" Paper, 3PF((F'%, 9pril )(((.

Ciocca Pierlui"i. Ricchi %er sem%reF na storia economica @!talia (1796-2005).


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Cotula, @ranco, an !ui"i Spaventa. ;!a politica monetaria tra le ue "uerre %/%/?%/&>. *n

Eollana storica ella anca @!talia- a anca @!talia; intesi ella ricerca storica 1893-1960

eite by @ranco Cotula, Marcello De Cecco, an $ianni Banca

A*talia Economic +istory 3or4in" Papers, No.%, 7ome, 8ctober )(%%.

De Cecco, Marcello. ;. *n &lic e&t management

theor an histor eite by Dornbusch 7ui"er, an Mario Dra"hi, )-&?)'. Cambri"e1

Cambri"e University Press, %//(.

TTTTTTTT. @!talia e il sistema #inan$iario interna$ionale 1919-36 . Bari1 !aterza, %//&.

TTTTTTTT. ;!A*talia e il sistema finanziario internazionale %'-(?%/&->. *n Eollana storica ella

anca @!talia- a anca @!talia; intesi ella ricerca storica 1893-1960 eite by @ranco Cotula,

Marcello De Cecco, an $ianni


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Emerson, Michael, Daniel $ros, 9le=aner *talianer , Iean Pisani?@erry an +orst 7eichenbach,

es. Hne arGet, Hne one-?n alation o# the otential Eosts an ene#its o# 'orming an

conomic an onetar nion. 8=for1 8=for University Press, %//).

Ente Einaui, e. !l isaan$o %&&lico in !talia natra strttrale e %olitiche i rientro. Bolo"na1

il Mulino, %//).

Ercolani, Paolo. ;Documentazione statistica i base>. *n o sil%%o economico in !talia. #ol. &,

eite by $ior"io @uR, &'(?-(. Milano1 @ranco 9n"eli, %/-/.

@austo, Domenicantonio. ;!a politica fiscale alla prima "uerra moniale al re"ime fascista.> *n

Ricerche %er la storia ella anca @!talia. #ol. **. 7ome?Bari1 !aterza, %//&.

@eerico, $iovanni. ;!e nuove stime ella prouzione a"ricola italiana, %'-(?%/%(1 primi risultati

e implicazioni.> Riista i toria conomica, no. *WW 5)((&61 &/?').

@elstein, M. ; NBE7 3or4in" Paper, No. -%(, Cambri"e M9, %//a.

@elstein, M. ;EMU an *nternational Conflict.> 'oreign ?##airs, NovemberFDecember 5%//b61

-(?&.

@enoaltea, Stefano. ;


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$iavazzi, @rancesco an Marco Pa"ano. ;Confience crises an public ebt mana"ement.> *n

&lic e&t management theor an histor eite by Dornbusch 7ui"er, an Mario Dra"hi.

Cambri"e1 Cambri"e University Press, %//(.

$iavazzi, @rancesco an @rancisco . *n

&lic e&t management theor an histor, eite by 7obert Dornbusch, an Mario Dra"hi.

Cambri"e1 Cambri"e University Press, %//(.

Malanima, Paolo. ;9lle ori"ini ella crescita in *talia %')(?%/%&." Riista i toria conomica, no.

W** 5)((-61 &(-?&&(.

Masera, 7ainer. +isaan$o &&lico e Jincolo i ilancio. Milano1 Eizioni i comunitR, %//.

Ministero el Mimeo,

available online at http1FF:::?&.unipv.itF:ebsiepF)(%)ri).pf , )(%).

Persson,


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Persson, Stui e Pubblicazioni,

7ome, )(%%.

7epaci, @rancesco 9. a #inan$a %&&lica italiana nel secolo 1861-1960. Bolo"na1 anichelli,

%/-).

7ey, $uio M., e. ! conti economici ell@!talia;na stima el alore agginto %er il 1911; 7ome1

!aterza, %//).

TTTT. ! conti economici ell@!talia;!l alore agginto %er gli anni 1891, 1938, 1951. 7ome1 !aterza,

)(((.

7ossi, Nicola, 9nrea Sor"ato, an $ianni . *n Ricerche %er la storia ella anca @!talia. #ol.

). ro&lemi i #inan$a %&&lica tra le e gerre; 1919-1939; 7oma?Bari1 !aterza, %//&.

Salvemini Maria


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I%loration in

conomic Distor, no. ( 5)((&61 %))?%).

*n Eollana storica ella

anca @!talia- a anca @!talia; intesi ella ricerca storica 1893-1960 eite by @ranco Cotula,

Marcello De Cecco, an $ianni *n !l +isaan$o &&lico in !talia Catra trttrale e olitiche i Rientro, eite by

Ente Einaui. Bolo"na1 il Mulino, %//).

ama"ni, #era. ;*l ebito pubblico italiano %'-%?%/-1 ricostruzione ella serie storica.> Riista i

toria economica, no. & 5%//'6.

3yplosz,Charles. ;@iscal rules1 NBE7 3or4in"

Paper No.%'', Cambri"e, M9, March )(%).


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% @or e=ample, ama"ni 5%//'6 consiers the evolution of the public ebt from %'-% to %/-, uses the series of 7ossi et al.

5%//&6 for the perio %'/(?%/- :hile for the perio %'-%?%''/ she uses #italiAs, base on the ol *S


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% See Boro et al. 5)((%6.

%- @or e=ample, for the thir an fourth national loans, less than fifty per cent of the nominal value :as collecte in cash.

3hile the first three issue national loans :ere reeemable, the last :ere consoliate 5see 7epaci, %/-)6.

%


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reporte a ne"ative real return eual to Y %%.&, the returns in short?term bons :ere ?/.& an those in stoc4s fell by more

than %.

)/ See also, amon"st others, $iavazzi an Pa"ano 5%//(6.

&( @or an analysis of public eficits in the 3estern economies in the '(s, see amon"st others Boltho 5%//)6 an 3yplosz

5)(%)6.

&% @or a etaile analysis of the monetary policy in *taly an money?financin" of fiscal eficit in the perio %/(?%/' see

Cotula 5%/'/6 an Salvemini 5%/'/6. 8n the %/'% *talian monetary reform, see


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( *n the presence of serially correlate resiuals the estimate stanar errors, an hence t?statistics, are not reliable.

3ithout incluin" the 975%6 in the fiscal rule of Euation , the Durbin 3atson statistic :oul inicate positive serial

correlation. Breusch?$ofrey Serial Correlation !M test can be use for 975%6 an hi"her orers of serial correlation in

moels :ith la""e epenent variables.

% 9ppropriate impulse ummies have been inclue to account for the outliers emer"in" in the "raphical analysis of the

re"ression resiuals. !M tests inicate the e=istence of a serial correlation for the perio %/%?%/, an, to a lesser e=tent,

for %/-?%/(. +o:ever, !M tests sho: that the null hypothesis of no serial correlation up to la" & is not reGecte for the

remainin" t:o perios, %'-)?%/%& an %/%?)((/, :hich :e :ill principally aress in the ne=t Section.

) See amon"st others Crafts an Ma"nani 5)(%%6.

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