Barriers to FOSS4G Adoption OSGeo-Live case study

8/10/2019 Barriers to FOSS4G Adoption OSGeo-Live case study

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Barriers to FOSS4G AdoptionOSGeo-Live case study

Alex Mandel, PhD

Geography Graduate GroupUniversity of California, Davis

[email protected]

@aimandel

September 10, 2014

Creative Commons Attribution Share-alike Non-commercial
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/


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Definitions

Knowledge Diffusion spread of awareness of an innovation

Adoption

actual implementation of knowledge, innovation, or product Barrier

something that slows the rate of diffusion or adoption 1

Pro-innovation Bias tendency to cast diffusion and adoption as positives

1Barrier is a negative term, as opposed to studying how to increase rates.


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OSGeo-Live


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History

2 3 4 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5

Release Number

SizeinGB

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

vm mini iso 4GB usb Limit 4.7 GB DVD Limit

2 3 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

Release Number

NumberofDown

loads

0

5000

10000

150

00

20000

25000

vm mini iso

Estimated Values

2010 2011 2012 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

Date

Count

2 3 4 4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Contributors

Translators


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Maps

Downloads

0

1 - 20

21-99

100-499

500-2499

2500+

Downloads By Percent Pop.

0

0.0000 - 0.0005

0.0005-0.001

0.001-0.005

0.005 - 0.01

0.01+


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OSGeo-Live Downloads: Top 10 Countries

(Versions 6.0 & 6.5)

Table: Total Downloads

Country DownloadsUnited States 5171Germany 3385Italy 2634Argentina 1812Mexico 1786Spain 1533France 1427Brazil 1245Indonesia 1162

United Kingdom 1041

Table: Downloads by Percent Population

Country Pop. Percent DownloadsNew Caledonia 0.016268 37Austria 0.011205 920Singapore 0.010070 469Cape Verde 0.009779 42Montenegro 0.008629 58Portugal 0.006967 746Northern Mariana 0.006767 6Monaco 0.006067 2Guernsey 0.005828 4

Uruguay 0.005380 188


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BreakdownLinux

Table: Total Downloads

Country Count PercentUnited States 831 16.070393Italy 661 25.094913Germany 575 16.986706Brazil 394 31.646586Argentina 358 19.757174Spain 353 23.026745Austria 352 38.260870Canada 348 36.287800

France 329 23.055361Bolivia 293 58.019802

Table: Percent of Countrys

Country Percent CountTanzania 97.902098 140Cyprus 92.307692 12

Estonia 84.090909 37Cape Verde 71.428571 30Kenya 65.540541 97Madagascar 64.912281 74Armenia 62.500000 5Bolivia 58.019802 293Venezuela 50.395778 191Ireland 44.444444 44

MacTable: Total Downloads

Country Count PercentUnited States 615 11.893251Singapore 423 90.191898Germany 167 4.933530France 132 9.250175Indonesia 122 10.499139Italy 108 4.100228United Kingdom 101 9.702209South Africa 100 28.653295

Canada 87 9.071950Spain 87 5.675147

Table: Percent of Countrys

Country Percent CountSingapore 90.191898 423Senegal 53.731343 36

South Africa 28.653295 100Australia 15.445545 78Switzerland 14.137931 41Mali 13.333333 2Japan 12.915851 66Finland 12.857143 9Qatar 12.500000 1Hong Kong 12.195122 5


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Significant VariationTable: World Internet connected desktop computers vs. OSGeo-Live downloaders.*

Windows Mac Linux OtherDesktop Computers 92.02000 6.810000 1.16000 0.000000

OSGeo-Live Downloaders 68.6487 6.581052 20.78151 3.988733

Table: Operating System vs. OSGeo-Live variant downloaded.*vm iso mini

Windows 8290 14822 5647Mac 1435 818 504

Linux 2241 4031 2434Other 385 907 379

Windows Mac Linux Other

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percentag

eofDownloaders

*Contingency table G-Statistic significant.


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Regional Participation

Contributors

80 60 40 20 0

2

3

4

4.5

5

5.5

6.0

6.5

Translators

Release

0 20 40 60 80

Australia and New ZealandEastern AsiaEastern EuropeNorthern AmericaNorthern EuropeSouth America

Southern EuropeWestern AfricaWestern AsiaWestern Europe

Kendalls Rank Correlation, strong correlation, downloaders and

participants

= 0.

436 (p-value = 3.668e-12)


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Barriers


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Potential Barriers

Variable Description Sourcedownloads Total Number of Downloads OSGeo-Livepop Population Natural Earthdownbypop Downloads/Population calculatedeconomy Economic ranking 1-7 Natural Earth (UN)income Income ranking 1-5 Natural Earth (UN)OoklaAverage Average Internet speed OoklaITUbroadband Population % wired Internet above 256 kpbs ITUAkUniqueIP Total Unique IP Addresses AkamaiAkAverage Average Internet Speed AkamaiAkPeak Peak Internet Speed AkamaiAkHighBroadband Population % wired Internet above 10 Mbps AkamaiAkBroadband Population % wired Internet above 4 Mbps Akamai

AkNarrowband Population % wired Internet below 4 Mbps AkamaiDemIndex Democracy Index EIU


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Details

Table: Economy Classification

1. Developed region: G72. Developed region: nonG73. Emerging region: BRIC4. Emerging region: MIKT5. Emerging region: G206. Developing region7. Least developed region

Table: Income Classification

1. High income: OECD2. High income: nonOECD3. Upper middle income4. Lower middle income5. Low income

Listing 1: Regression Analysis with Random Forests in R

#P ac ka ge s : p a rt y , c a r e t , t o u s e m u lt i c o r e : p a r a l l e l , doMC mod1


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Important Variables

AkBroadband

AkUniqueIP

OoklaAverage

AkNarrowband

AkHighBroadband

AkAverage

economy

AkPeak

ITUbroadband

income

DemIndex

0.0e+00 5.0e08 1.0e07 1.5e07

AkUniqueIP

OoklaAverage

AkHighBroadband

AkNarrowband

AkBroadband

AkAverage

economy

AkPeak

ITUbroadband

income

0e+00 2e08 4e08 6e08


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Important Relationships

2 4 6 8 10

0.0

00

0.0

02

0.0

04

0.0

06

0.0

08

0.0

10

DemIndex (010)

downbypop(%)

Linear Regression Fit

LOWESS Regression Fit

1 2 3 4 5

0.0

00

0.0

02

0.0

04

0.0

06

0.0

08

0.0

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Income

downbypop(%)

0 10 20 30 40

0.0

00

0.0

02

0.0

04

0.0

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0.0

08

0.0

10

ITUbroadband (% of population)

downbypop(%)

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.0

00

0.0

02

0.0

04

0.0

06

0.0

08

0.0

10

AkPeak (Mbps)

downbypop(%)


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Conclusions

From the Data Mac users like Virtual Machines OSGeo-Live is popular with Linux users Having participants in the same country corresponds to

downloads. Culture is a big barrier Fiscal and Technical issues still exist with FOSS

Keys to FOSS Infinite Trial-ability Re-invention potential Translation? Community

Supply Side Institutions (e.g. OSGeo) Informal Social Networks (e.g. Local Chapters)


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Whats Next

Confirmation & Details - Survey Questionnaire

How fast of internet is good enough?

Compare Projects Test more specific data ...

Household income English Proficiency % of Higher Education

Change over time


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Special Thanks

OSGeo-Live Team and Community http://live.osgeo.org

Jim Quinn and theInformation Center for the Environment

Questions?https://github.com/wildintellect/OSGeoLive-analysis

@aimandel
http://live.osgeo.org/http://ice.ucdavis.edu/https://github.com/wildintellect/OSGeoLive-analysishttps://github.com/wildintellect/OSGeoLive-analysishttp://ice.ucdavis.edu/http://live.osgeo.org/

Documents

Barriers to FOSS4G Adoption OSGeo-Live case study