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©2016 Lincoln National Corporation
BARCLAYS GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE
Dennis R. Glass | President and Chief Executive Officer
New York, NY
September 13, 2016
2
AGENDA
Review corporate strategy
Highlight our strong financial results and why they are sustainable
Key management actions to enhance shareholder value
3
Highly Integrated
U.S. RETAIL-CENTRIC; TARGETING SELECT HIGH-GROWTH AREAS
Four Core Businesses
High Growth Segments
Centralized Distribution
Retail Focused Products
Risk Management
Strong Capital Position
• Annuity
• Group Protection (GP)
• Life
• Retirement Plan Services (RPS)
• Mass affluent Annuity
• Employee-paid Group Protection
• High end Life
• Gen X / millennial markets
• Small employers and government
• Broad shelf space
• Wholesale
• Retail
• Worksite
• Comprehensive
• Innovative
• Diversified
• Multi-solution
• Rigorous planning
• Active monitoring
• Centralized
• Integral to product design
• Free cash flow generation
• Steady growth in dividends and buybacks
• Appropriate leverage
Clear and consistent focus on retail products in the United States
40% 29%
60% 71%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2009 2015With long-term guarantee Without long-term guarantee
67% 33%
All non-mortality/morbidity
Mortality/morbidity
CONTINUING TO DIVERSIFY THE COMPANY’S RISK PROFILE
Achieved long-term guarantee sales mix goal1…
…which supports increasing mortality/morbidity as a source of earnings2
70% 30%
Without long-termguarantee
With long-termguarantee
1 Sales mix: Life, MoneyGuard and Group Protection: Paid Annualized Premiums as reported; Annuity/Retirement Plan Services at 5% of Deposits. 2 Pre-Tax, excludes Other Operations.
4
Target
78%
22%
2Q16 Long-term goal
5
TRACK RECORD OF STRONG AND CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE
350%
400%
450%
500%
550%
$5B
$6B
$7B
$8B
$9B
2009 2015
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2009 2015
Strong capital levels BVPS growth and ROE expansion
BVPS ex. AOCI1 ROE1 Statutory capital RBC ratio
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
2009 2015 Operating EPS1
Strong EPS growth Steady revenue growth with controlled expenses
$3B
$6B
$9B
$12B
$15B
2009 2015 Operating revenue1
G&A as a % of operating revenue1
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2009 2015
1 See Appendix for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measures. G&A as a percent of revenue represents general and administrative expenses, net of amounts capitalized, as a percent of operating revenue.
KEY DRIVERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOLID FINANCIAL RESULTS
6
Organic earnings Capital management
Capital markets
Net flows/premiums
In-force marginimprovement
Expense efficiency Equity marketgrowth
Spreadcompression
Buybacks Targeted EPSappreciation
+2-4%
+1-2%
+4-5%
(2-3)%
+2-3%
+0-1%
Target ~8-10%
Capital market assumptions
Equity markets • 6-8% total return
Interest rates • Remain at current levels
Target annual EPS growth of 8 to 10%
7
7
FINANCIAL RESULTS COMPARE FAVORABLY TO PEERS
1 Financial measures compare 2015 to 2009 and peers include AFL, CNO, GNW, MET, PFG, PRU, TMK and UNM. Valuation as of 9/9/2016. 2 Source: SNL Financial; Volatility, represented by the variation coefficient, is calculated as the standard deviation of quarterly income from 1Q09 to 4Q15,
divided by the average quarterly income to normalize for size differences.
More ROE expansion
Lower volatility
7%
260bps
0.2
5%
130bps
0.6
Lin
coln
Pe
ers
1
Better growth
12% 8%
Strong capital 25% 26%
BVPS CAGR
ROE
Earnings volatility2
EPS CAGR
Growth in TAC
Outperformance not reflected in valuation
Valuation 0.86x 1.14x
P/B ex AOCI
7.7x 10.1x P/E
6.8% 6.8%
3.4% 3.8%
12.5 12.0
■ Actual ■ Expected
8
CONFRONTED BY INDUSTRY OR COMPANY SPECIFIC ISSUES
1 Excludes financed reserves; assumes no regulatory or other assumption changes. 2 Lapses: Rate of full surrenders for VA living benefit policies from 2013-2015; Utilization: Average percent of VA guarantee withdrawal benefit policyholders initiating income in each year from 2013-2015; Mortality: Deaths per 1,000 policies for VA living benefit policies, from 2012-2014. 3 Net income unlocking estimates based upon 5/31/2016 reserve and DAC models. Reflects sensitivities applied to the full variable annuity book. 4 Not all policyholders utilize their guarantee withdrawal benefits. This sensitivity assumes all policyholders utilize guarantees by policy year 20.
Utilization2 Lapses2 Mortality2
Scenario Unlocking3
50% drop in lapse rates $(50)M
Full utilization4 $(160)M
20% reduction in mortality $(90)M
Assumptions in line with actual experience; Severe sensitivities produce modest impacts
Spread Compression
Statutory Balance Sheet
2015 – 2018E: 2-3% range
vs. 2013 – 2014: 4-5% range
Total reserve adequacy1
2012 $8B
2015 $11B
RBC impact of SGUL subtests in low rate scenarios
1.5% 10-yr UST -
1.0% 10-yr UST ~20% pts
0.5% 10-yr UST ~40% pts
Persistently low interest rates VA policyholder behavior assumptions
Low rates remain manageable EPS headwind; Strong reserve adequacy
$(3)B$(2)B$(1)B
$0B$1B$2B$3B
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
1Q
12
2Q
12
3Q
12
4Q
12
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
Change in hedge target Hedge program performance (net breakage)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
LNC
AMP
AIG
AXA
Aegon
VOYA
MET
PRU
Jackson
9
Consistent sales, lower risk VA book1
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% GLB NAR as % of AV
LNC 0.9%
Peer avg2
6.1%
DIFFERENTIATED AND UNDERVALUED ANNUITY BUSINESS
Minimal historic hedge breakage
Achieving excellent returns through a cycle
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
20% ROE average, 2007-20153
~19% if including VA hedge results
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1 Source: Morningstar; Total Annuities account values (AV) and net amounts at risk as of 12/31/2015. Sorted by range of VA sales as % of beginning AV, 2005-2015 2 Peers include AIG, AXA, Aegon, AMP, HIG, Jackson, MET, PRU and VOYA. 3 Return on equity, excluding goodwill; returns including VA hedge results contain VA net derivative results, excluding impact of non-performance risk (NPR).
ENHANCING SHAREHOLDER VALUE
10
Actions to date
RPS: base spread
11
1%
2%
3%
4%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Key economic headwind:
interest rates
Demonstrated ability to respond to market conditions while protecting and growing the franchise
Crediting rates Other actions
1 Potential prospective re-pricing considerations for in-force business: investment income, mortality, reinsurance costs, policyholder persistency, expenses (including taxes), and other contractual considerations.
• Proactive retention actions • In-force repricing1
Life: base spread 1.71% 1.71% 1.77% 1.62% 1.46% 1.40%
10-year U.S. Treasury rates
• Disciplined expense management • Enterprise expense assessment
In-force actions
PROACTIVE STEPS TO ADDRESS INDUSTRY HEADWINDS
Additional levers to respond to headwinds
Expense management
Product diversification
2.21% 2.21% 2.01% 1.85% 1.74% 1.63%
0%
4%
8%
2015 margin Claims management Pricing discipline Top-line growth Target margin
12
Loss ratio improvement Premium growth Target markets
• Disciplined pricing • Claims management
• Employee-paid products • Small and mid-sized
businesses • Strategic initiatives
• Leveraging distribution • Sales growth reemerging • Improved renewal persistency
Margin expansion
DRIVE FURTHER MARGIN IMPROVEMENT IN GROUP PROTECTION
13
EXPAND AND SELECTIVELY REPRICE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO
Broad product portfolio
Changes to accelerate growth and assure appropriate returns
Product and capability expansion/development
Annuities Fee-based VA and FIA Passive investment options Innovative lifetime income
Group Accident and critical illness Absence management
Life LincXpressSM
TermAccel ®
RPS Small market DirectorSM Digital and mobile capabilities
GUL Review of other products with
long-duration guarantees
Product repricing
VA with GLB 11%
VA without GLB 6%
VA with reinsurance
6%
Fixed Annuities 8%
MoneyGuard 13%
VUL 10%
Term 8%
IUL 6%
GUL 5%
Executive Benefits 2%
Alliance 4%
Director 2%
Life 7%
Disability 7%
Dental 4%
1 Annuities and RPS are based on 5% of deposits. RPS deposits include only first-year sales.
Annuities1 Life RPS1 Group
RETENTION We have a large active producer
base
With room to grow
Add new producers in our core markets
Expansion to new markets
of total sales from repeat producers 74%
1/4 selling multiple types of Lincoln products
Predictive analytics and digital tools to target, acquire, and develop producers
CROSS SELL
90K
110K
Active Lincoln producers
Attributes like our best active
producers
Targeted producers
ENSURE DISTRIBUTION REMAINS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
200K
14
$
Producer segmentation on 76 attributes like:
Behavioral Demographic
Tenure
Licensing AUM
Business model
Attributes that predict sales
Home value
Net worth
Income
Spending habits
Education
Independent distribution offers multiple ways to win
15
Share repurchases
Retained in life company
Dividends
Deleveraging
SUSTAIN ACTIVE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Strong capital generation $6.2B from 2011-2Q 20161
1 2016 results for capital retained in life company are estimated. 2 Source: Company filings and FactSet; Free cash flow defined as the % of operating earnings deployed through share repurchases and common stock dividends.
$1.6B 25%
$3.5B 58%
$0.8B 12%
$0.3B 5%
Free cash flow as % of market cap is
above industry average2
Free cash flow target
Timeframe Target
Prior long-term target 45-50%
Current long-term target 50-55%
2016 target Expect to exceed 50-55%
4%
6%
8%
10%
CNO VOYA LNC PRU AFL UNM MET PFG TMK
-- Peer average
• Clear strategy that is producing strong and sustainable financial performance
– Steady revenue growth, controlled expenses, and buybacks to drive EPS growth
– Continue to grow BVPS and achieve strong returns
– Maintain solid capital levels
• Taking decisive actions to enhance shareholder value
– Proactive steps to address industry headwinds
– Drive further margin improvement in Group Protection
– Expand and selectively reprice product portfolio
– Ensure distribution remains competitive advantage
– Sustain active capital management
16
RECAP
APPENDIX
17
18
18
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS – CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE Certain statements made in this presentation and in other written or oral statements made by Lincoln or on Lincoln's behalf are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (PSLRA). A forward-looking statement is a statement that is not a historical fact and, without limitation, includes any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words like: "believe," "anticipate," "expect," "estimate," "project," "will," "shall" and other words or phrases with similar meaning in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. In particular, these include statements relating to future actions, trends in Lincoln's businesses, prospective services or products, future performance or financial results, and the outcome of contingencies, such as legal proceedings. Lincoln claims the protection afforded by the safe harbor for forward-looking statements provided by the PSLRA.
Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results contained in the forward-looking statements. Risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to vary materially, some of which are described within the forward-looking statements include, among others:
• Deterioration in general economic and business conditions that may affect account values, investment results, guaranteed benefit liabilities, premium levels, claims experience and the level of pension benefit costs, funding and investment results;
• Adverse global capital and credit market conditions could affect our ability to raise capital, if necessary, and may cause us to realize impairments on investments and certain intangible assets, including goodwill and the valuation allowance against deferred tax assets, which may reduce future earnings and/or affect our financial condition and ability to raise additional capital or refinance existing debt as it matures;
• Because of our holding company structure, the inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends to the holding company in sufficient amounts could harm the holding company’s ability to meet its obligations;
• Legislative, regulatory or tax changes, both domestic and foreign, that affect: the cost of, or demand for, our subsidiaries' products; the required amount of reserves and/or surplus; our ability to conduct business and our captive reinsurance arrangements as well as restrictions on revenue sharing and 12b-1 payments; and the potential for U.S. federal tax reform and the effect of the Department of Labor’s regulation defining fiduciary;
• Actions taken by reinsurers to raise rates on in-force business;
• Declines in or sustained low interest rates causing a reduction in investment income, the interest margins of our businesses, estimated gross profits and demand for our products;
• Rapidly increasing interest rates causing contract holders to surrender life insurance and annuity policies, thereby causing realized investment losses, and reduced hedge performance related to variable annuities;
19
19
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS – CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE (CONT.)
• Uncertainty about the effect of rules and regulations to be promulgated under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act on us and the economy, and financial services sector in particular;
• The initiation of legal or regulatory proceedings against us, and the outcome of any legal or regulatory proceedings, such as: adverse actions related to present or past business practices common in businesses in which we compete; adverse decisions in significant actions including, but not limited to, actions brought by federal and state authorities and class action cases; new decisions that result in changes in law; and unexpected trial court rulings;
• A decline in the equity markets causing a reduction in the sales of our subsidiaries' products; a reduction of asset-based fees that our subsidiaries charge on various investment and insurance products; an acceleration of the net amortization of deferred acquisition costs, or "DAC;" value of business acquired, or "VOBA;" deferred sales inducements, or "DSI;" and deferred front end sales loads, or "DFEL;" and an increase in liabilities related to guaranteed benefit features of our subsidiaries' variable annuity products;
• Ineffectiveness of our risk management policies and procedures, including various hedging strategies used to offset the effect of changes in the value of liabilities due to changes in the level and volatility of the equity markets and interest rates;
• A deviation in actual experience regarding future persistency, mortality, morbidity, interest rates or equity market returns from the assumptions used in pricing our subsidiaries' products, in establishing related insurance reserves and in the net amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL, which may reduce future earnings;
• Changes in accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, or "GAAP," including convergence with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), that may result in unanticipated changes to our net income;
• Lowering of one or more of our debt ratings issued by nationally recognized statistical rating organizations and the adverse effect such action may have on our ability to raise capital and on our liquidity and financial condition;
• Lowering of one or more of the insurer financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries and the adverse effect such action may have on the premium writings, policy retention, profitability of our insurance subsidiaries and liquidity;
• Significant credit, accounting, fraud, corporate governance or other issues that may adversely affect the value of certain investments in our portfolios as well as counterparties to which we are exposed to credit risk requiring that we realize losses on investments;
• Inability to protect our intellectual property rights or claims of infringement of the intellectual property rights of others;
• Interruption in telecommunication, information technology or other operational systems, or failure to safeguard the confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data on such systems from cyberattacks or other breaches of our data security systems;
20
• The effect of acquisitions and divestitures, restructurings, product withdrawals and other unusual items;
• The adequacy and collectability of reinsurance that we have purchased;
• Acts of terrorism, a pandemic, war or other man-made and natural catastrophes that may adversely affect our businesses and the cost and availability of reinsurance;
• Competitive conditions, including pricing pressures, new product offerings and the emergence of new competitors, that may affect the level of premiums and fees that our subsidiaries can charge for their products;
The risks included here are not exhaustive. Our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and other documents filed with the SEC include additional factors which could impact our business and financial performance. Moreover, we operate in a rapidly changing and competitive environment. New risk factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for management to predict all such risk factors.
Further, it is not possible to assess the impact of all risk factors on our businesses or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Given these risks and uncertainties, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results. In addition, Lincoln disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date of this presentation.
The reporting of RBC measures is not intended for the purpose of ranking any insurance company or for use in connection with any marketing, advertising or promotional activities.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS – CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE (CONT.)
21
RECONCILIATION NET INCOME TO INCOME FROM OPERATIONS
1 The numerator used in the calculation of our diluted EPS is adjusted to remove the mark-to-market adjustment for deferred units of LNC stock in our deferred compensation plans if the effect of equity classification would result in a more diluted EPS.
2 We use our prevailing federal income tax rate of 35% while taking into account any permanent differences for events recognized differently in our financial statements and federal income tax returns when reconciling our non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure.
(mill ions of dollars, except per share data)
2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Revenues 6,685$ 6,551$ 10,641$ 11,535$ 11,969$ 13,554$ 13,572$
Less:
Excluded realized gain (loss) (127) (245) (388) (39) (274) (165) (329)
Amortization of DFEL on benefit ratio unlocking - - (1) 2 1 - (2)
Amortization of deferred gains arising from reserve
changes on business sold through reinsurance 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 Total Operating Revenues 6,811$ 6,795$ 11,027$ 11,569$ 12,239$ 13,716$ 13,900$
Net Income (Loss) Available to Common
Stockholders - Diluted 645$ 526$ 216$ 1,313$ 1,244$ 1,519$ 1,150$
Less:
Adjustment for deferred units of LNC stock in our
deferred compensation plans (1)1 (7) (5) - - 4 (4)
Net Income (Loss) 644 533 221 1,313 1,244 1,515 1,154
Less (2):
Excluded realized gain (loss) (83) (159) (252) (25) (178) (106) (214)
Benefit ratio unlocking 2 4 (15) 25 36 7 (29)
Income (loss) from reserve changes (net of related
amortization) on business sold through reinsurance 1 1 2 3 2 2 2
Gain (loss) on early extinguishment of debt - - (5) (3) - - -
Impairment of intangibles - - (747) 2 - - -
Income (loss) from discontinued operations - - (8) 27 - 1 - Income (Loss) from Operations 724$ 687$ 1,246$ 1,284$ 1,384$ 1,611$ 1,395$
Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share (Diluted)
Net income (loss) 2.50$ 2.17$ 0.69$ 4.56$ 4.52$ 5.67$ 4.51$
Income (loss) from operations 2.81 2.80 3.94 4.47 5.03 6.03 5.46
For the Six Months Ended June 30, For the Years Ended December 31,
22
RECONCILIATION BOOK VALUE PER SHARE AND RETURN ON EQUITY
1 Excludes AOCI.
(mill ions of dollars, except per share data)
2015 2016
Book value per share, including AOCI 58.58$ 68.39$
Per share impact of AOCI 7.75 13.72
Book value per share, excluding AOCI 50.83 54.67
2015 2016 2014 2015
Average equity including goodwill 112,634$ 12,738$ 12,270$ 12,693$
Income from operations 724 687 1,611 1,395
Return on average equity - reported including goodwill 111.5% 10.8% 13.1% 11.0%
Average equity including goodwill 112,634$ 12,738$ 12,270$ 12,693$
Net income 644 533 1,515 1,154
Return on average equity - reported including goodwill 110.2% 8.4% 12.3% 9.1%
December 31,
As of June 30,
For the Year EndedFor the Six Months Ended
June 30,