báo cáo phân tích ngành ngân hàng

8/6/2019 bo co phn tch ngnh ngn hng

1/39

c k khuyn co t i trang cui bo co phn t ch ny

PHNG PHN TCHNGNH NGN HNG

Ngy 24, thng 07, nm 2008

BO CO PHN TCH NGNH NGN HNG

Ri ro v ChiNI DUNG CHNH THNG TIN NGNH

Hot ng ngn hng truyn thng c tim nng tng trng n nh.Tc tng trng hot ng tn dng v huy ng tin gi giai on 2002 -

2007 bnh qun t trn 35%/nm. T l tn dng/GDP v tin gi/GDP tng

nhanh tuy nhin vn mc th p so vi trung bnh trong khu vc. D bo

trong thi gian ti tc tng trng hot ng ny s chm li nhng vn

mc cao gp 2 ln so vi tc tng GDP thc t.

Hot ng ngn hng bn l v ngn hng u t c tim nng tngtrng mnh. Mc s dng sn phm dch v ngn hng c nhn ti VitNam cn thp; th trng vn cha pht trin y ; nn kinh t c tc

tng trng nhanh l nhng yu t quan trng cho s pht trin mnh m ca

hot ng ngn hng bn l v ngn hng u t.

Ngnh c mc cnh tranh cao. p lc cnh tranh gia khi Ngn hngTMQD v khi Ngn hng TMCP ang tng ln mnh m v c s chuyn

dch th phn kh nhanh t khi NHTMQD sang khi NHTMCP trong thi

gian gn y. Mc cnh tranh gia cc ngn hng, c bit i vi hot

ng ngn hng truyn thng s gia tng mnh.

Hiu qu hot ng ca cc ngn hng khng ng u. Khi NHTMCPc hiu qu hot ng tt hn cc NHTMQD v cao hn mc trung bnhtrong khu vc. Khi NHTMQD c hiu qu hot ng thp hn tuy nhin

cht lng ti sn ang c ci thin ng k.

Ngnh ngn hng hin ang phi i mt vi nhiu loi ri ro gm ri rotn dng, ri ro thanh khon, ri ro li sut v ri ro hot ng u t. Nhng

ri ro ny c bit c nh hng ln ti cc Ngn hng c quy m nh vi c

cu ti sn nhiu ri ro.

Quan im u t.Ngnh ngn hng hin gp nhiu kh khn, tuy nhin xtv di hn ngnh c tim nng tng trng n nh. c bit, mt s ngn

hng c quy m ln, hiu qu hot ng v cht lng ti sn tt, c chin

lc pht trin r rng ang c li th bt ph. Gi c phiu ca mt s ngn

hng thuc nhm c tim nng pht trin hin mc hp l cho mc ch

u t di hn.

T l tn dng/GDP, 2006

T l tin gi/GDP, 2006

T l tin mt/Tng PTTT, 2006

MT S CH TIU TNG TRNG NGNH NGN HNG

n v: nghn t VND 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E CAGR 2012F CAGR

GDP danh ngha 536 613 715 839 974 1.144 16,4% 2.119 13,1%

Tng d ntn dng 231 297 420 553 694 1.069 35,8% 2.331 16,9%

Tng tin gi 255 321 423 559 764 1.146 35,1% 2.754 19,2%

Tng trng tn dng 22% 28% 42% 32% 25% 54%Tng trng tin gi 19% 26% 32% 32% 37% 50%

Ngun: IMF, ADB, BMI, BVSC

25%

35%57%

71%

77%

95%

113%

131%

134%

143%

160%

Indonesia

PhilippiIndia

Vietnam

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

China

Hongkong

Taiwan

Korea

37%

41%

75%

78%

79%

118%

120%

133%

152%

216%

322%

Indonesia

Philippines

India

Vietnam

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

Korea

China

Taiwan

Hongkong

2%

3%

3%5%

6%

8%

10%

11%

11%

15%

18%

Korea

Hongkong

TaiwanMalaysia

Singapore

China

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippi

India

Vietnam


2/39

BO CO PHN TCH NGNH NGN HNG 24/7/2008

2

MC LC

I. TIM NNG TNG TRNG NGNH NGN HNG 3

1. S pht trin ngnh ngn hng 3

2. Tim nng tng trng 5

II. PHN TCH CNH TRANH 7

- Quy m v nng lc ti chnh 7

- Th phn hot ng 8

- Mng li hot ng 9

- Chin lc pht trin 9

- Kh nng thm nhp th trng ca cc i th mi 10

III. HIU QU HOT NG CA H THNG NGN HNG 12

IV. PHN TCH RI RO 14

1. Ri ro thanh khon 15

2. Ri ro tn dng 16

3. Ri ro li sut 17

4. Ri ro hot ng u t v kinh doanh chng khon 18

V. QUAN IM U T 19

PH LC: BO CO TI CHNH CA CC NGN HNG 22

Danh mc bng Danh mc biu

Bng 1: S lng Ngn hng giai on 1991 - 2007 Biu 1: Tng trng tn dng v tin gi giai on 2002 2007

Bng 2: D bo tng trng tn dng v huy ng vn n nm 2012 Biu 2: So snh t l tn dng/tin gi vi cc nc trong khu vc

Bng 3: Mt s Cng ty chng khon thuc Ngn hng Biu 3: So snh t l tn dng/GDP v tin gi/GDP nm 2006

Bng 4: T l CAR ca mt s ngn hng Biu 4: T trng thu nhp dch v trong tng thu nhp 2007

Bng 5: Th phn cho vay giai on 2000 2007 Biu 5: Tng trng thu nhp dch v nm 2007 so vi 2006

Bng 6: Th phn huy ng giai on 2000 2007 Biu 6: T l Tin mt/Tng PTTT (M2) v so snh trong khu vc

Bng 7: i tc chin lc ca mt s NHTMCP ti Vit Nam Biu 7: Tng trng tng ti sn 2007

Bng 8: Mt s ch tiu ti chnh khi NHTMQD Biu 8: Tng trng vn iu l 2007

Bng 9: Mt s ch tiu ti chnh khi NHTMCP Biu 9: So snh s lng chi nhnh mt s ngn hng 2007

Bng 10: T l cho vay/huy ng tin gi mt s Ngn hng Biu 10: GDP - CPI v thm ht thng mi

Bng 11: T l cho vay/tng ti sn mt s Ngn hng Biu 11: Tng trng Tn dng - M2 - CPI giai on 2002 2007

Bng 12: c im cc nhm ngn hng Biu 12: Din bin li sut trung bnh giai on 2003 2009

Bng 13: So snh cc ch tiu nh gi vi cc ngn hng trong

khu vc

Biu 13: Ccu u t v kinh doanh chng khon

Biu 14: Din bin ch s VnIndex v li sut tri phiu


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3

I. TIM NNG TNG TRNG NGNH NGN HNG

1. Spht trin ngnh ngn hng

S lng ngn hng tng nhanh tp

trung vo 2 khi ngn hng TMCP v

chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi chothy sc hp dn ca lnh vc ngn

hng Vit Nam.

Trong thi gian qua, Ngnh ngn hng c s tng trng nhanh

chng c v s lng v quy m. S lng ngn hng tng t 9 ngn

hng trong nm 1991 ln 80 ngn hng vo nm 2007. S lng ngnhng tng thm tp trung vo 2 khi ngn hng thng mi c phn v

chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi cho thy sc hp dn ca ngnh Ngn

hng Vit Nam i vi cc nh u t trong nc cng nh cc t

chc ti chnh quc t.

Bng 1: S lng ngn hng giai on 1991 2007

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2005 2006 2007

Ngn hng TMQD 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5

Ngn hng TMCP 4 41 48 51 48 39 37 37 37Chi nhnh NHNN 0 8 18 24 26 26 29 31 33

Ngn hng lin doanh 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5

Tng s ngn hng 9 56 74 84 83 74 75 78 80

Ngun: SBV, Deutsche bank, BVSC

Bn cnh s tng trng v s lng, quy m hot ng ca h thng ngn

hng cng tng trng mnh m. Nm 2007, tng ti sn ton h thng

tng ln hn 1.500 ngn tng tng ng hn 130% GDP 2007. S

tng trng h thng tp trung vo 2 mng hot ng truyn thng l cho

vay v huy ng. Tc tng trng hot ng tn dng v huy ng tingi mc rt cao, t trung bnh trn 35%/nm trong sut giai on 2002 -

2007. c bit trong nm 2007, tng trng tn dng trnn qu nng khi

t tc tng 54% do nhu cu tn dng trong nn kinh t tng cao trong

bao gm c nhu cu vn u t chng khon v bt ng sn.

Biu 1: Tng trng tn dng v tin gi giai on 2002 - 2007

Tc tng trng tn dng v tin

gi cao hn nhiu ln so vi tc

tng trng GDP thc t.

Ngun: IMF, Tng cc thng k, BVSC

Tng trng tn dng nhanh khin ngnh ngn hng c nguy c i

mt vi ri ro ln hn khi t l tn dng/tin gi ton ngnh lun

mc trn 90%, cao hn mc trung bnh trong khu vc (khong 83%).

22% 28%

42%

32%

25%

54%

19%26%

32% 32%

37% 50%

7%7%

8% 8% 8% 8%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

Tng trng tn dng Tng trng tin gi Tng trng GDP


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4

Biu 2: So snh t l tn dng/tin gi vi cc nc trong khu vc

T l tn dng/tin gi ca Vit Nam

cao hn mc trung bnh trong khu

vc.

T l tn dng/tin gi, 2002 - 2007 So snh trong khu vc Asia, 2006

Ngun: ADB, BVSC

su ti chnh cng c s thay i ng k khi cc t l tn

dng/GDP v tin gi/GDP ca Vit Nam tng nhanh qua cc nm v t

ln lt 71% v 78% vo cui nm 2006. iu ny cho thy mc pht

trin rt nhanh chng ca h thng ngn hng Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, t l

ny vn mc thp hn so vi mc trung bnh trong khu vc.

Biu 3: So snh t l tn dng/GDP v huy ng/GDP nm 2006

Mc d t tc tng trng nhanh

nhng cc ch tiu tn dng/GDP v

huy ng/GDP ca Vit Nam vn thphn mc trung bnh trong khu vc

Tn dng/GDP, 2006 Tin gi/GDP, 2006

Ngun: ADB, BVSC

Cc ch tiu ny cho thy h thng Ngn hng vn c tim nng tng trng

tuy nhin tc tng trng trong nhng nm ti s gim xung, ng thi

h thng Ngn hng s phi tp trung hn vo vic tng nng lc ti chnh v

nng cao cht lng tn dng nhm m bo an ton h thng.

Ngoi 2 mng hot ng truyn thng l tn dng v huy ng vn,

mng hot ng dch v cng c s pht trin mnh m. Cng vi vic

u t mnh vo cng ngh, c s vt cht v a dng ho cc sn

phm dch v, nhng nm va qua thu nhp t cc mng hot ngny cng tng mnh.

91%

93%

99%

99%

91%

93%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007E

42%

66%

68%

76%

81%

85%

86%

91%95%

98%

121%

Hongkong

Taiwan

Indonesia

India

Singapore

Philippines

China

VietnamMalaysia

Thailand

Korea

25%

35%

57%

71%

77%

95%

113%

131%

134%

143%160%

Indonesia

Philippines

India

Vietnam

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

China

Hongkong

TaiwanKorea

37%

41%

75%

78%

79%

118%

120%

133%

152%

216%322%

Indonesia

Philippines

India

Vietnam

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

Korea

China

TaiwanHongkong


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5

Biu 4: T trng thu nhp dch v trong tng thu nhp 2007

Ngun: Tng hp tBCTC cc Ngn hng

Biu 5: Tng trng thu nhp dch v nm 2007 so vi 2006

Ngun: Tng hp tBCTC cc Ngn hng Nm 2007, tng trng thu nhp thun hot ng dch v trung bnh t 92%

so vi nm 2006. i vi nhng ngn hng thc hin chin lc pht trin

hot ng dch v th thu nhp t hot ng ny cng chim t trng ngy

cng cao trong tng thu nhp. Nhng ngn hng c v th hng u v hot

ng dch v bao gm: VCB, BIDV, ACB, STB, EAB, TCB.

2. Tim nng tng trng

Dbo tc tng trng hotng tn

dng v huy ng vn schm li so vigiaion 2002 - 2007, tuy nhin vn

mc cao gp hn 2 ln tc tng GDP

thc t.

Hot ng Ngn hng truyn thng c d bo s tng trng

chm li. Mc d gp nhiu kh khn trong nm 2008 nhng nn kinht Vit Nam vn c nhiu t chc nh gi c tc tng trng tt

trong nhng nm ti. Theo d bo ca BMI, tc tng trng GDP

trong nm 2008 s gim xung 7% tuy nhin vn t mc bnh qun

8% trong giai on 2008 - 2012. y l yu t quan trng cho s pht

trin ca h thng Ngn hng.

Trn csnhng nh gi v kh nng nng trng ca nn kinh t v cc

mng hot ng chnh nh tn dng v huy ng vn trong tng quan so

snh vi cc nc trong khu vc, BVSC d bo mt s ch tiu tng trng

i vi mng hot ng tn dng v huy ng vn n nm 2012 nh sau:

Bng 2: Dbo tng trng tn dng v huy ng vn n nm 2012

n v: nghn t VND 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E CAGR 2012F CAGRGDP danh ngha 536 613 715 839 974 1.144 16,4% 2.119 13,1%Tng tn dng 231 297 420 553 694 1.069 35,8% 2.331 16,9%Tng tin gi 255 321 423 559 764 1.146 35,1% 2.754 19,2%Tn dng/GDP 43% 48% 59% 66% 71% 93% 110%Tin gi/GDP 48% 52% 59% 67% 78% 100% 130%Tn dng/Tin gi 91% 93% 99% 99% 91% 93% 85%Tng trng tn dng 22% 28% 42% 32% 25% 54%

Tng trng tin gi 19% 26% 32% 32% 37% 50%Ngun: ADB, BMI, BVSC

1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 3.2%4.6% 6.9% 7.1%

7.9% 8.0% 9.0% 9.2% 9.9%11.7% 14.6%

22.2%

SEAB ABB MHB AGRI VP VIB EIB STB BIDV ACB MB VCB HBB TCB EAB

-19% 9% 11%36% 59% 62% 63% 64% 74%

83% 87% 109%157%

246%337%

SEAB ABB VCB AGRI BIDV STB VIB EIB TCB ACB MB EAB HBB VP MHB


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6

Cc sn phm, dch v ngn hng bn l c tim nng tng trng

mnh cng vi s tng trng kinh t. Theo IMF, s lng ti khon

ngn hng ti Vit Nam trong nm 2006 c tnh chmc hn 8 triu

ti khon chim khong 9,4% dn s v tp trung ch yu vo nhng i

tng c thu nhp cao ti cc khu th v cc doanh nghip. Phng

thc thanh ton tin mt vn l phng thc thanh ton kh ph bin.

Mc d t l Tin mt/Tng phng tin thanh ton (M2) c xu hng

gim dn nhng t l ny ca Vit Nam vn l cao nht trong khu vc.

iu ny m ra tim nng ngnh Ngn hng khi cc sn phm, dch v

thanh ton tng i hon thin ng thi Chnh ph c ch trng

y mnh thanh ton qua Ngn hng.

Biu 6: T l Tin mt/Tng PTTT (M2) v so snh trong khu vc

T l Tin mt/Tng PTTT (M2) mc

d c xu hng gim tuy nhin vn mc cao nht so vi cc nc trong

khu vc.

T l tin mt/M2, 2002 - 2006 So snh vi cc nc trong khu vc

Ngun: ADB, BVSC

Trong tng lai hotng ngn hng

u t smang li nhiu c hi pht

trin cho cc ngn hng, tuy nhin y

cng l mng s chu s cnh tranh

ln t pha cc Ngn hng nc

ngoi.

Hot ng Ngn hng u thin ang giai on u ca spht

trin. Cc NHTM ti Vit Nam hin nay ch yu tp trung vo cc mng

nghip v NHTM truyn thng nh huy ng vn v cho vay, cc nghip

v Ngn hng u t nh mi gii, t vn, bo lnh pht hnh v cc

nghip v chng khon phi sinh ch yu c thc hin ti cc Cng ty

chng khon. Tuy nhin, mt s ngn hng ln vi nh hng pht trin

thnh tp on ti chnh c nh hng pht trin mng hot ng ny

thng qua vic thnh lp cc Cng ty chng khon trc thuc Ngn hng.

Bng 3: Mt s Cng ty chng khon thuc shu ca Ngn hng

Cng ty chng khon Vn iu l % Shu Ngn hng mCng ty chng khon Ngn hng Nh H Ni 150 100% HBBCng ty chng khon Ngn hng Ngoi thng 200 100% VCBCng ty chng khon Thng Long 300 83.3% MBCng ty chng khon Ngn hng Cng thng 500 100% ICBCng ty chng khon Ngn hng ng 500 100% EABCng ty chng khon Ngn hng u t Pht trin 700 100% BIDVCng ty chng khon Ngn hng Nng nghip Vit Nam 700 100% AGRICng ty chng khon ACB 1,000 100% ACBCng ty chng khon Ngn hng Si gn Thng tn 1,100 100% STB

Ngun: HASTC, HOSE, BVSC

23%

22%

20%

19%

18%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2%

3%

3%

5%

6%

8%

10%

11%

11%

15%

18%

Korea

Hongkong

Taiwan

Malaysia

Singapore

China

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

India

Vietnam


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7

II. PHN TCH CNH TRANH TRONG NGNH NGN HNG

Th trng ngn hng c s phn ha r nt gia cc khi ngn hng:

Hin c 80 ngn hng ang hot ng ti Vit Nam bao gm 5 ngn

hng thng mi quc doanh, 37 ngn hng thng mi c phn, 33

chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi v 5 ngn hng lin doanh. Gia ccnhm ngn hng ny c s phn ha r nt v quy m, th phn, i

tng khch hng cng nh chin lc pht trin.

Quy m v nng lc ti chnh Quy m ti sn v vn ch s hu ca cc ngn hng Vit Nam trong

nhng nm qua c s tng trng mnh tuy nhin cn thp hn nhiu

so vi mc trung bnh trong khu vc. Khi NHTMQD c quy m vt

tri, tuy nhin tc tng trng chm hn so vi khi NHTMCP.

Biu 7: Tng trng tng ti sn 2007 (VT 1.000 t VND)

Ngun: Bo co ti chnh cc ngn hng

Biu 8: Tng trng vn iu l 2007 (VT 1.000 t VND)

Ngun: Bo co ti chnh cc ngn hng

T l an ton vn ti thiu (CAR) l ch

tiu quan trng phn nh nng lc ti

chnh ca Ngn hng. Ch tiu ny

c dng xc nh kh nng ca

Ngn hng trong vic thanh ton cc

khon nc thi hn v i mt vi cc

ri ro khc nh ri ro tn dng, ri ro

vn hnh.

S tng trng nhanh v quy m vn gip cc Ngn hng ci thin ng

k nng lc ti chnh. H s an ton vn (CAR) trung bnh ca cc

NHTMQD tng t 7% trong nm 2006 ln 9% trong nm 2007, t l ny

ca cc NHTMCP bnh qun trn 12%. Trong khi , t l ny ca khu

vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng l 13,1%, ca khu vc ng l 12,3%.

Theo quy nh ca SBV n nm 2008, CAR ca cc ngn hng phi t

ti thiu l 8%. Do , trong nhng nm ti xu hng tng vn ca ccNgn hng s tip tc din ra c bit l i vi khi NHTMQD.

17 26 18 24 27 2839 40 34

65 85

28

205 196

327452%

157%79% 101%

128% 105%138% 128%

84%161%

91%47% 27% 17% 33%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%500%

-50.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0

ABB SEAB VP HBB EAB MB VIB TCB EIB STB ACB MHB BIDV VCB AGRI

Tng ti sn Tng trng tng ti sn

2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 1 8 4 11

103%

500%

167%100% 82% 91% 100% 68%

131% 113% 139%

1%89%

2% 62%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

ABB SEAB VP HBB EAB MB VIB TCB EIB STB ACB MHB BIDV VCB AGRI

Vn iu l Tng trng vn iu l


8/39


8

Bng 4: T l CAR ca mt s ngn hng

AGRI VCB BIDV ICB MHB ACB STB EAB

2005 0,41 7,27 3,97 4,36 10,19 12,1 15,4 8,94

2006 4,97 9,57 4,82 5,18 9,31 10,89 11,82 13,57

2007 7,2 N/A 11 N/A 9,44 16,19 11,07 14,36Ngun: BVSC tng hp

Th phn hot ng Th phn gia cc khi ngn hng c schuyn dnh mnh t

khi NHTMQD sang khi NHTMCP trong nhng nm gn y, c

bit l hai nm 2006 v 2007.

Bng 5: Th phn cho vay giai on 2000 - 2007

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

Ngn hng TMQD 77% 79% 80% 79% 77% 73% 65% 55%

Ngn hng TMCP 9% 9% 10% 11% 12% 15% 21% 29%

CN Ngn hng NN & LD 12% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9%

T chc ti chnh khc 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 7%

Ngun: ADB

Bng 6: Th phn huy ng giai on 2002 2007

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

Ngn hng TMQD 77% 80% 79% 78% 75% 75% 69% 59%

Ngn hng TMCP 11% 9% 10% 11% 13% 16% 22% 30%CN Ngn hng NN & LD 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 8% 8% 9%

T chc ti chnh khc 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2%

Ngun: ADB

Khi NHTMQD: hin vn ang chim th phn chi phi trn cc mng

hot ng chnh. Tuy nhin th phn ca khi ny ang c xu hng thu

hp do s cnh tranh mnh m t khi NHTMCP v NHNN&LD. Trong

2 nm 2006 - 2007, th phn ca khi ny gim mnh l do cc

NHTMQD khng tp trung nhiu vo tng trng hot ng m tp trung

vo vic tng cng nng lc ti chnh cng nh qun l cht lng tn

dng chun b cho qu trnh c phn ha.

Khi NHTMCP: th phn tng nhanh c bit trong nm 2006 v

2007 cho thy s pht trin nhanh chng v sc cnh tranh ngy cng

mnh m ca khi ny trn th trng.

Khi NHNN&LD: y l khi c s tng trng nhanh v kh u

n v s lng ngn hng. Th phn hot ng ca khi CN NHNN &

LD kh n nh nguyn nhn l do khi ny chu quy nh hn chi

vi vic huy ng vn bng ng VND t khch hng c nhn, khnng mrng th phn b hn ch.


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9

Mng li hot ng Mt trong nhng li th cnh tranh quan trng ca khi NHTMQD so vi

NHTMCP v NHNN&LD chnh l mng li hot ng. H thng

mng li ca cc NHTMQD c pht trin t lu v bao ph khp

trn c nc. c bit l h thng chi nhnh ca Ngn hng Nng nghip

v pht trin nng thn c mt n tng x trn cc a bn. Cng vi

thng hiu ln, h thng mng li ca cc NHTMQD gip cc ngn

hng ny duy tr th phn chi phi trn cc mng hot ng chnh nh huy

ng vn v tn dng trong thi gian qua.

Biu 9: So snh s lng chi nhnh ca mt s ngn hng nm 2007

Ngun: BVSC tng hp

Cc NHTMCP ang n lc trong vic m rng mng li, c bit l

cc ngn hng ng u nh ACB, STB, TCB, Tc pht trin

mng li ca cc ngn hng ny rt nhanh v c trng im. Mng

li ca cc NHTMCP t p trung ch yu ti cc thnh ph ln, cc

khu th c mc sng cao do cc chi nhnh ny thng c hiuqu tt ngay t khi i vo hot ng.

Chin lc pht trin Khi NHTMQD: Cc NHTMQD ang trong qu trnh ti cu trc

thc hin c phn ha. Hin nay, Vietcombank tin hnh IPO ln

u thnh cng v chnh thc chuyn sang m hnh NHTMCP trong

nm 2008. Cc ngn hng cn li u c l trnh c phn ha n

nm 2010. Chin lc pht trin ca khi NHTMQD sau c phn ha

l pht trin thnh cc tp on ti chnh a nng cung cp y cc

sn phm dch v ti chnh cho khch hng. Hin nay cc ngn hng

ny u c cng ty chng khon, cng ty cho thu ti chnh, cng ty

qun l qu,

Vi v th dn u v quy m v th phn, khi NHTMQD t p trung

khai thc i tng khch hng l cc doanh nghip ln, cc tp on

kinh t v u t d n.

Khi NHTMCP: Hu ht cc NHTMCP u c chin lc pht trin tp

trung vo th trng ngn hng bn l. Mt s NHTMCP dn u nh

ACB, STB c nh hng m rng thnh cc tp on ti chnh a nng

trong ngn hng thng mi l ct li. i tng khch hng ch yuca khi ny l cc doanh nghip va v nh v khch hng c nhn.

36 50 56 64 65 82 107 126 128 130 211 150 204412

832

2,000

HBB SEAB ABB EIB MB VIB EAB ACB VP TCB STB MHB VCB BIDV ICB AGRI


10/39


10

Cc NHTMCP vi s nng ng v kh nng qun tr tt to p lc

cnh tranh ln i vi khi NHTMQD v NHNN&LD trong nhng

nm va qua. Cc NHTMCP hp dn cc nh u t nc ngoi bi s

tng trng nhanh chng v kh nng sinh li cao. Mt s ngn hng

c phn thc hin bn c phn cho i tc chin lc l cc Ngn

hng ln trn th gii nhm mc ch nng cao nng lc ti chnh vqun tr.

Bng 7: i tc chin lc ca mt s NHTMCP ti Vit Nam

Ngn hng Nh u tchin lc %

ACB Standard Chartered Bank 15

Sacombank ANZ 10

Techcombank HSBC 15

Eximbank Sumitomo Mitsui bank 15

Oricombank BNP Paribass 10

Southern Bank United Overseas bank 10

VP Bank OCBC 10

Habubank Deutsche Bank AG 10

Ngun: Fitch

Khi NHNN&LD. Cc ngn hng nc ngoi c mt ti Vit Nam hinti u l nhng tn tui nm trong Top 100 ngn hng ln nht th gii

nh Citibank, HSBC, ANZ, Cc ngn hng ny c chin lc tp trung

vo i tng khch hng c th l cc doanh nghip 100% vn nc

ngoi, cng ty lin doanh, cc doanh nghip Quc doanh ln v cc khch

hng c nhn nc ngoi. Ngoi ra, mt s ngn hng ln c mt ti

Vit Nam t lu nh HSBC, ANZ, Citibank cng hng n cc i

tng khch hng c nhn c thu nhp cao. Cc ngn hng ny trin

khai nhiu sn phm ngn hng bn l hin i nhm thu ht khch hng

nh dch v cho vay qua mng, qua in thoi di ng, ti trmua nh vcc sn phm th tn dng quc t.

Kh nng thm nhp th trng

ca cc i th mi.

Nhiu iu kin cp php mi c p dng. K t ngy 01/04/2007,

theo cam kt gia nhp WTO, Vit Nam chnh thc cho php thnh lp ngn

hng 100% vn nc ngoi. Ngnh ngn hng l ngnh c tnh c th v

c nh gi l c mc cnh tranh cao nn vic thnh lp ngn hng

mi phi p ng nhng quy nh kht khe. Ngn hng mi thnh lp phi

c vn iu l ti thiu 1.000 tng v phi t 3.000 tng vo nm

2010. Room i vi nh u t nc ngoi vn hn chmc 30%. Cc c

ng chin lc nc ngoi chc nm gi ti a 20% vn iu l v

cc t chc ny phi c tng ti sn ti thiu 20 t USD.


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11

Tuy nhin, sc hp dn v tim nng tng trng v li nhun ca

ngnh ngn hng khin nhiu t chc trong v ngoi nc tham gia

thnh lp ngn hng mi.

i vi cc t chc trong nc. Trong nm 2007, c hn 30 h sv

ngh xin thnh lp ngn hng mi t cc doanh nghip ln nh: Tp

on Bo him Bo Vit, Tp on Bu chnh Vin thng, Tp on

Du kh, Tp on Dt may, Tng cng ty Sng , Tng cng ty

Thp, Tng cng ty Bia ru H Ni v.v... Hin nay, NHNN cp

php hot ng cho Ngn hng Lin Vit (vn iu l 3.000 t VND)

v Ngn hng Tin Phong (vn iu l 1.000 t VND), ng thi cng

chp thun nguyn tc i vi Ngn hng Bo Vit v Ngn hng Du

kh. i vi ngh ca cc t chc khc nhiu kh nng s kh thc

hin do Chnh ph lo ngi v vic u t dn tri sang lnh vc khc

ca cc Tp on kinh t.

i vi cc t chc nc ngoi. Tnh n cui nm 2007, Ngn hng

nh nc tip nhn 5 h sxin thnh lp ngn hng con 100% vn

nc ngoi v 19 h s xin c p php thnh l p chi nhnh ngn hng

nc ngoi ti Vit Nam. Trong s c 3 h s xin thnh l p chi

nhnh c ch p thun nguyn tc l Commonwealth Bank

(Australia), IBK (Hn Quc) v Fubon (i Loan).

Nh vy, mc d ro cn ra nh p th trng ngn hng rt kht khe

nhng th trng ngn hng vn thu ht s tham gia ca nhiu t chc

ln, c bit l cc t chc nc ngoi vi tim lc ti chnh mnh,cng ngh ngn hng hin i v thng hiu quc t. Do trong

thi gian ti s cnh tranh trn th trng ngn hng s ngy cng gay

gt. Xu hng mua bn v sp nhp trong ngnh c th s xy ra. S

lng ngn hng va v nh s gim ng k. Sp nhp gip cc ngn

hng nng cao hiu qu hot ng, duy tr mc li nhun v gim c

cnh tranh trong ngnh.

S cnh tranh tim tng t cc t chc ti chnh khc. Hot ng

ca cc ngn hng hin chu s cnh tranh nh t cc t chc ti chnh

khng phi l ngn hng nh cc Cng ty ti chnh, c bit l cccng ty ti chnh thuc cc Tp on, Tng cng ty (i vi hot ng

thu xp vn vay, tn dng, huy ng vn); cc cng ty Chng khon c

quy m ln (i vi cc hot ng ngn hng u t nh bo lnh pht

hnh, t vn sp nhp, u t ). Tuy nhin trong tng lai nu cc

m hnh ny thnh cng, y s l nhng i th cnh tranh trc tip

vi cc ngn hng trn tng mng hot ng, c bit l s cnh tranh

t cc cng ty Chng khon c lp c quy m ln ln hot ng ngn

hng u t.


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12

III. HIU QU HOT NG CA H THNG NGN HNG

Hiu qu hot ng ca cc NHTM

c nng cao trong nm 2007, c

bit l khi NHTMCP.

H thng ngn hng Vit Nam c s tng trng rt nhanh trong

nhng nm qua vi tc tng trng bnh qun 35%/nm. Bn cnh

s tng trng, hiu qu hot ng ca cc ngn hng thng mi

cng c nng ln r rt, c bit l khi NHTMCP. Nm 2007, t lROAA trung bnh ca ton h thng t 1,51%, ROAE t 16,42% so

vi mc trung bnh trong khu vc ln lt l 1,18% v 16,47%.

T l n xu (impaired loans) ca ton h thng ngn hng trong

gim t 14% trong nm 2006 xung 3% trong nm 2007, tnh theo

chun Quc t (IFRS) t l ny ln lt l 30% nm 2006 v 6% nm

2007. Tuy t l n xu (impaired loans) gim mnh nhng hin vn

cao hn nhiu so vi cc chi nhnh Ngn hng nc ngoi ti Vit

Nam.

Khi NHTM Quc doanh Thi gian qua, tc tng trng ca khi NHTMQD chm hn khnhiu so vi cc NHTMCP. Nguyn nhn l do khi ny tp trung vo

vic ti cu trc v x l n xu nhm mc tiu lnh mnh ha ti

chnh chun b cho qu trnh c phn ha.

Cc ch tiu sinh li ROAA, ROAE ca cc Ngn hng Quc doanh cn

th p. Trong khi, ch c Vietcombank c cc ch tiu sinh li ROAA,

ROAE vt tri cao hn mc trung bnh trong khu vc v tng ng

vi mc sinh li ca cc NHTMCP hng u nh ACB, STB.

Bng 8: Mt s ch tiu ti chnh ca khi NHTMQD

VCB BIDV ICB AGRI MHB TBnh

2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006

Quy m v tng trng

Tng ti sn 195,964 166,952 204,511 161,223 135,363 326,897 246,530 27,532 18,734 188,726 145,760

Vn CSH 13,235 11,127 11,635 7,551 5,607 15,343 10,380 1,069 929 10,320 7,119

D ntn dng 95,909 67,743 131,984 98,639 80,152 251,710 188,501 13,925 10,113 123,382 89,030

TT tn dng 41.6% 11.0% 33.8% 15.5% 7.4% 33.5% 18.2% 37.7% 19.9% 36.7% 14.4%

Kh nng sinh li

ROAA 1.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8%

ROAE 17.9% 29.4% 16.0% 10.4% 11.3% 12.9% 9.0% 14.0% 8.3% 15.2% 13.7%

NIM 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0% 4.4% 4.2% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0%

Chi ph/D.Thu 30.9% 23.1% 30.5% 34.5% 46.9% 42.7% 47.6% 64.6% 64.9% 42.2% 43.4%

Kh nng thanh khon

CV/Tng TS 48.9% 40.6% 64.5% 61.2% 59.2% 77.0% 76.5% 50.6% 54.0% 60.3% 58.3%

CAR 9,6% 11.0% 4,8% 5,2% 7,2% 5,0% 9.4% 9.3% 9.2% 6.8%

Cht lng ti sn

NPL 2.7% 4.8% 11.9% 1.4% 1.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5%

DPRRTD/D n 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 0.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 1.2%

Ngun: BCTC cc ngn hng


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13

Khi NHTM c phn So vi cc ngn hng TMQD th kh nng sinh li ca cc ngn hng

thng mi c phn tt hn mc d chi ph vn ca khi ny cao hn

do li sut huy ng cao hn so vi cc ngn hng quc doanh. ROAA

v ROAE trung bnh ca cc ngn hng thng mi c phn nm 2007

t ln lt 1,9% v 18,4%. Vt tri trong khi v kh nng sinh li

l ACB, STB v TCB.

Bng 9: Mt s ch tiu ti chnh cc NHTMCP

Tng TS VCSH Dntn dng Tng trng TD ROAA ROAE

2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006

ABB 17,174 3,114 2,479 1,190 6,858 1,131 506.4% 178.3% 1.6% 3.1% 8.8% 8.4%

SEAB 26,241 10,200 3,366 1,056 11,041 3,363 228.3% 153.3% 1.6% 1.2% 13.5% 14.6%

VP 18,137 10,111 2,181 836 13,287 5,007 165.4% 51.9% 1.6% 1.4% 15.0% 19.5%

HBB 23,519 11,685 3,179 1,756 9,419 5,983 57.4% 79.7% 2.1% 2.2% 14.8% 17.2%

EAB 27,425 12,040 3,229 1,531 17,809 7,971 123.4% 33.7% 1.7% 1.6% 14.0% 14.3%

MB 27,777 13,529 3,337 1,366 10,386 5,906 75.9% 37.3% 1.7% 1.9% 15.3% 21.1%

VIB 39,305 16,527 2,183 1,190 16,744 9,137 83.3% 73.1% 1.1% 1.1% 18.3% 16.4%

TCB 39,542 17,326 3,573 1,762 20,603 8,811 133.8% 63.8% 1.8% 1.8% 19.1% 18.5%

EIB 33,710 18,327 6,295 1,947 18,452 10,207 80.8% 47.5% 1.8% 1.7% 11.2% 18.6%

STB 64,573 24,776 7,350 2,870 35,378 14,394 145.8% 70.8% 3.1% 2.4% 27.4% 19.8%

ACB 85,392 44,645 6,258 1,654 31,811 17,014 87.0% 81.3% 2.7% 1.5% 44.5% 34.5%

TBnh 36,618 16,571 3,948 1,560 17,435 8,084 153.4% 79.2% 1.9% 1.8% 18.4% 18.5%


NIM Chi ph/Dthu CV/TngTS CAR T l NPL DPRR/Dn

2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006

ABB 3.3% 4.1% 34.7% 21.9% 39.9% 36.3% 2.0% 3.9% 0.8% 1.3%

SEAB 2.8% 2.5% 18.8% 26.6% 42.1% 33.0% N/A 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%

VP 3.5% 3.0% 48.5% 44.9% 73.3% 49.5% 21.0% 26.0% N/A 0.6% 0.0% 0.3%

HBB 3.7% 2.7% 26.1% 28.1% 40.1% 51.2% 14.0% 2.5% 2.6% 1.4% 1.1%

EAB 3.0% 3.1% 40.7% 45.4% 64.9% 66.2% 14.4% 13.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

MB 3.1% 4.0% 32.3% 26.1% 37.4% 43.7% 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8%

VIB 2.7% 3.3% 39.1% 40.8% 42.6% 55.3% 10.0% 1.2% N/A 0.8% 0.9%

TCB 3.4% 3.4% 35.1% 36.7% 52.1% 50.9% 1.4% 3.1% 0.6% 1.3%

EIB 3.1% 2.8% 34.8% 31.3% 54.7% 55.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4%STB 3.2% 4.4% 30.4% 38.4% 54.8% 58.1% 11.1% 11.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

ACB 2.3% 2.7% 26.6% 38.9% 37.3% 38.1% 16.2% 10.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%

TBnh 3.1% 3.3% 33.4% 34.5% 49.0% 48.9% 14.5% 15.3% 1.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.9%


Cht lng tn dng ca cc ngn hng thng mi c phn c nh

gi kh tt theo chun mc k ton chung, vi t l nxu nm 2007

l khong 1,5%, thp hn so vi cc ngn hng Quc doanh (t l n

xu ca cc ngn hng quc doanh khong 4%). H s an ton vn ti

thiu ca cc ngn hng thng mi c phn cng t yu cu ti thiukhi a phn cc ngn hng c t l CAR > 8%.


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14

IV. PHN TCH RI RO

Trong nm 2007 v nhng thng u nm 2008, nn kinh t Vit Nam

gp nhiu kh khn do lm pht tng cao, thm ht thng mi mc

k lc khin cho tc tng trng GDP c xu hng chm li. Trong

bi cnh , vn ri ro i vi h thng Ngn hng l vn cnhiu t chc, c nhn quan tm.

Biu 10: GDP - CPI v Thm ht thng mi (VT: T USD)

GDP - CPI Thm ht thng mi

Ngun: BMI, BVSC

Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh dn n t l lm pht tng cao

trong nm 2007 l do mc tng cung tin trong nn kinh t. Trong giai

on 2002 - 2007, cng vi tng trng hot ng tn dng, tng

phng tin thanh ton trong nn kinh t (M2) cng tng trung bnh29%/nm, c bit trong nm 2007 mc tng ny l 45%.

Biu 11: Tng trng Tn dng - M2 - CPI giai on 2002 - 2007

Tng PTTT tng nhanh l mt trong

nhng nguyn nhn chnh dn n

lm pht cao trong thi gian qua.

Ngun: ADB, BVSC

Trc bi cnh lm pht tng cao, Ngn hng nh nc thc hin

nhiu bin php tht cht tin t nhm khng ch mc tng cung tin

nh: tng t l d tr bt buc ln 11%, tng li sut cbn, pht hnh

tn phiu bt buc, Nhng bin php ny c nh hng trc tip n

tnh thanh khon, mc ri ro cng nh kh nng sinh li ca hthng ngn hng.

7.100% 7.300%

7.800%

8.400% 8.200% 8.500%

4.100% 2.900%

9.500%8.400%

6.800%

12.600%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GDP CPI

16.7 20.126.5

32.439.6

48.4

-19.7 -25.3-32 -37

-44.8

-60.8

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Xut khu Nhp khu Thm ht thng mi

22%28%

42%

32%

25%

54%

18% 25%

29% 30%

34%45%

4% 3%10% 8% 7% 13%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tng trng tn dng Tng trng tng PTTT Tng CPI


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15

1. Ri ro thanh khon

Mt s ngn hng c kh nng i

mt vi ri ro thanh khon do t lcho

vay/huy ng tin gi mc trn

100%.

Trong bi cnh Ngn hng nh nc thc hin chnh sch tht cht

tin t, c du hiu ca ri ro thanh khon trn h thng ngn hng.

Hin tng li sut huy ng tin gi v li sut trn th trng lin

ngn hng lin tc tng nhanh cho thy r iu ny. S thiu ht thanhkhon xut pht t mt s ngn hng cho vay vt qu kh nng huy

ng tin gi cho thy nhng ngn hng ny ang ph thuc kh nhiu

vo lng vn vay trn th trng lin ngn hng.

Bng 10: T l cho vay/huy ng tin gi ca mt s ngn hng

2006 2007 Q1/2008

AGRIBANK 119.2% 109.4% 115.7%

VCB 56.6% 66.0% N/A

BIDV 92.6% 97.5% N/A

INCOMBANK 80.4% 95.8% N/A

MHB 202.0% 140.1% 151.5%

Trung bnh nhm NHTMQD 110.2% 101.8% N/A

ACB 50.6% 57.5% 64.2%

SACOMBANK 82.2% 80.0% 79.0%

TECHCOM 92.1% 84.2% 81.9%

EAB 86.0% 123.9% 121.4%

MB 56.6% 57.5% 61.3%

VIB 93.1% 94.7% 104.5%

EXIMBANK 77.7% 80.6% N/A

HABUBANK 133.4% 111.2% 129.5%

VP 88.9% 104.1% 93.2%

ABB 72.9% 101.2% 101.0%

SEABANK 145.4% 102.8% N/A

Trung bnh nhm NHTMCP 89.0% 90.7% N/A

Ngun: Tng hp tBCTC cc ngn hng

T l cho vay/huy ng tin gi

Vit Nam hin ang mc 107%,cao hn kh nhiu so vi mc trung

bnh trong khu vc Chu l 83%.

Mc d li sut huy ng tng cao nhng tc huy ng vn ca cc ngn

hng vn ang chm li. y l nguyn nhn dn n cng thng ngun vnv thanh khon cc bmt s ngn hng. Theo s liu ca NHNN, tnh

n ht thng 5/2008, huy ng tin gi trn ton h thng ngn hng ch

tng 4,1% trong khi d ntn dng tng 19,13% so vi cui nm 2007. Vi

tc tng tin gi mc rt thp y t l cho vay/huy ng ca ton h

thng ln mc 107% e da n tnh thanh khon ca ton h thng, c bit

l cc ngn hng ang c t l cho vay/huy ng tin gi trn 100% v phi

phc thuc nhiu vo ngun vn vay trn th trng lin ngn hng. Nguy c

ri ro thanh khon s khin cc Ngn hng phi tp trung hn vo vic huy

ng vn ng thi hn ch cho vay ra a t l cho vay/huy ng tingi trv mc an ton hn.


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16

2. Ri ro tn dng

T l cho vay/ tng ti sn mc

bnh qun trn 50% cho th y cc

ngn hng thng mi c mc

ph thuc cao vo hot ng tn

dng.

Hin nay hot ng cho vay vn l mng hot ng chnh ti cc

NHTM Vit Nam vi mc bnh qun chim hn 50% tng ti sn.

Bng 11: T l cho vay/Tng ti sn ca mt s ngn hng

2006 2007 Q1/2008AGRIBANK 76.5% 77.0% 78.3%

VCB 40.6% 48.9% N/A

BIDV 61.2% 64.5% N/A

INCOMBANK 59.2% N/A N/A

MHB 54.0% 50.6% 48.1%

Trung bnh nhm NHTMQD 58.3% 60.3% 63.2%

ACB 38.1% 37.3% 40.5%

SACOMBANK 58.1% 54.8% 55.1%

TECHCOM 50.9% 52.1% 55.2%

EAB 66.2% 64.9% 72.9%

MB 43.7% 37.4% 45.5%

VIB 55.3% 42.6% 54.6%

EXIMBANK 55.7% 54.7% N/A

HABUBANK 51.2% 40.1% 56.2%

VP 49.5% 73.3% 72.0%

ABB 36.3% 39.9% 44.2%

SEABANK 33.0% 42.1% N/ATrung bnh nhm NHTMCP 48.9% 49.0% 55.1%

Ngun: Tng hp tBCTC cc ngn hng

Hotng tn dng c nguy c ri ro

cao khi th trng btng sn v th

trng chng khon st gim mnh.

Ri ro i vi hot ng cho vay u t, kinh doanh bt ng sn:

hot ng cho vay ca cc ngn hng vn ch yu da vo ti sn m

bo l bt ng sn. Thng tin t Ngn hng Nh nc cho bit, thi

im u nm 2008, gi tr ti sn m bo l bt ng sn chim

khong 50% tng ti sn ca h thng ngn hng; d n cho vay bt

ng sn chim khong 135.000 t chim khong 10,8% tng d n

ton h thng. y l mt trong nhng nguy c tim n ri ro ln i

vi h thng Ngn hng, tuy nhin cha c c snh gi chnh

xc mc ri ro ca hot ng ny.Ri ro i vi hot ng cho vay cm c chng khon: d ncho vay

cm c chng khon tng nhanh trong nm 2006 2007 cng vi s bng n

ca TTCK, thm ch ti mt s ngn hng c phn t l cho vay cm c

chng khon tng ln mc 40% -50% d ncho vay. Trc tnh trng ,

Ngn hng Nh nc ban hnh Quyt nh 03 khng ch mc cho vay

cm c chng khon khng vt qu 20% vn iu l ca Ngn hng. Theo

thng tin t Ngn hng Nh nc, d ncho vay kinh doanh chng khon

gim xung mc 9.000 t, chim di 1% tng d ncho vay ca h thng

ngn hng. y cng l mt nguy cri ro nxu tim n i vi h thngNgn hng trong bi cnh TTCK st gim.


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17

T l nxu (impaired loans) tuy c ci thin song vn mc

cao so vi mt bng chung trong khu vc. T l n xu (impaired

loans) ca ton h thng ngn hng trong gim t 14% trong nm

2006 xung 3% trong nm 2007. Tuy nhin y l mc c tnh theo

chun k ton Vit Nam (VAS), nu tnh theo chun k ton Quc t

(IFRS) th t l ny ln lc l 30% nm 2006 v 6% nm 2007 caohn so vi cc chi nhnh Ngn hng nc ngoi ti Vit Nam. Trong

nm 2008, t l nxu ca h thng Ngn hng d bo s tng ln do

chu nh hng ca chnh sch tht cht tin t v s st gim ca th

trng bt ng sn v th trng chng khon.

3. Ri ro li sut

Ti cc Ngn hng, thng c s chnh lch k hn ti nh gi gia ti

sn nv ti sn c. Do , khi mc li sut trn th trng thay i s

nh hng n ngun thu t cc ti sn sinh li cng nh chi ph t huyng vn, t nh hng ti li nhun ca ngn hng. Trong nhng

thng u nm 2008, Ngn hng Nh nc 2 ln thc hin tng li

sut cbn t 8,75% ln 12% v 14%. Cc ngn hng thng mi lun

trong tnh trng chy ua v li sut nhm ht tin gi to nn cuc ua

li sut v lm tng nguy c ri ro li sut trong h thng Ngn hng.

Theo d bo ca EIU, li sut huy ng v cho vay bnh qun trong nm

2008 mc rt cao ln lt l 20,8% v 15,3%.

Biu 12: Din bin li sut trung bnh giai on 2003 - 2009

Mt bng li sut c xu hng tng v

tng mnh trong nm 2008 gy kh

khn cho nn kinh tni chung v h

thng Ngn hng ni ring.

Ngun: Economist Intelligence Unit T l s dng vn ngn hn cho vay di hn ca cc Ngn hg

thng mi chim khong 40% ngun vn ngn hn. Do , mt bng

li sut tng cao l mt nguyn nhn chnh buc cc NHTM phi iu

chnh k hoch li nhun cho nm 2008 ny. Hin nay, mt s ngn

hng thc hin iu chnh li nhun k hoch nh ACB iu chnh

k hoch t 2.800 t xung 2.500 t; Eximbankiu chnh k hoch t

1.500 t ng xung 1.300 t ng; ABB iu chnh li nhun k

hoch t 555 tng xung 500 tng. So vi k hoch d kin ban

u, li nhun iu chnh trong nm 2008 ca mt s ngn hng gim xung khong 10% - 20%.

9.5% 9.7% 11.0% 11.2% 11.4%

20.8%17.3%

6.6% 6.1% 7.1% 7.6% 7.9%

15.3%12.3%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F

Li sut cho vay trung bnh Li sut tin gi trung bnh


18/39


18

4. Ri ro hot ng u tv kinh doanh chng khon

Hot ng u t chng khon l mt trong nhng hot ng nhm mc

ch a dng ho danh mc ti sn, to tnh thanh khon v sinh li cho

Ngn hng. Hot ng ny c bit si ng trong giai on 2006 - 2007

cng vi s bng n ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam. Trong nm2007, t trng chng khon kinh doanh v u t trong tng ti sn ca

khi NHTMQD v NHTMCP ln lt l 18% v 14,5%; t trng thu

nhp t hot ng ny trong tng thu nhp tng ng l 2,2% v 14%.

Biu 13: Ccu hot ng u tv kinh doanh chng khon

Ngun: Tng hp tBCTC cc Ngn hng

Chim a phn trong danh mc chng khon u t ca cc Ngn hng

thng l Tri phiu Chnh ph v Tri phiu ca cc Tp on ti chnh.

Tuy nhin, k tu nm 2008 n nay, th trng chng khon st gimmnh (ch s VnIndex gim hn 50%). ng thi, li sut th trng

cng tng nhanh khin li tc tri phiu tng mnh (li sut tri phiu

tng khong 10%). y l nhng yu t gy nh hng n danh mc

chng khon u t v kinh doanh ca cc ngn hng cng nh li nhun

t hot ng mua bn chng khon.

Biu 14: Din bin ch s VnIndex v li sut tri phiu

Biu VnIndex Biu li sut tri phiu Chnh ph

Ngun: BVSC tng hp

0.3% 1.2% 2.0% 2.8%3.7% 5.0% 5.6%

6.7% 8.1% 10.2% 10.8% 11.1%

21.1%

33.1%

41.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

AGRI HBB BIDV MHB VCB SEAB EIB TCB VIB MB VP EAB ABB STB ACB

Thu nhp t mua bn CK/Tng thu nhp Chng khon u t, kinh doanh/Tng TS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

01/02/2008 02/21/2008 04/03/2008 05/22/2008

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

01/09/2008 03/17/2008 5/5/2008 6/17/2008

Yield 5 nm Yield 2 nm


19/39


19

V. QUAN IM U T

Trn csnhng phn tch, nh gi tim nng tng trng, mc ri ro

v hiu qu hot ng ca h thng ngn hng, chng ti cho rng hin nay

l thi im c th tham gia u t vo cc Ngn hng thng mi ti Vit

Nam. Tuy nhin, mc u t tu thuc vo tng nhm ngn hng khcnhau. Xt v quy m, tc tng trng v kh nng cnh tranh ca cc

Ngn hng, chng ti chia cc Ngn hng thng mi trong nhm so snh

thnh 4 nhm vi mc khuyn nghu t nh sau:

Bng 12: Cc nhm Ngn hng

Nhm Ngn hng c im Quan im u t

1 Agribank, BIDV,

VCB, ICB

- C quy m vn, tng ti sn v mng li hot ng ln nht trongh thng Ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam.

- Tc tng trng n nh.- Nm gi th phn chi phi trn cc mng nghip v chnh.

u tVCB mc

gi hin ti.

2 ACB, STB, TCB - C quy m vn, tng ti sn, mng li hot ng ln nht trongkhi Ngn hng thng mi c phn ti Vit Nam

- Tc tng tng ti sn, doanh thu, li nhun mc cao v n nh.- Cc ch tiu sinh li cao, v ri ro thp.- C s h trca cc i tc chin lc l cc tp on ti chnh ln

trn th gii.

u tvi mc gi

th trng hin ti

3 EAB, MB, EIB,

VIB

- C quy m vn, tng ti sn mc trung bnh trong nhm Ngn hngthng mi c phn so snh.

- Tc tng trng tng ti sn, doanh thu, li nhun nhanh.- Kh nng sinh li v mc ri ro mc trung bnh trong khi

Ngn hng thng mi c phn ti Vit Nam.

- C k hoch bn c phn cho i tc chin lc nc ngoi hoc c i tc chin lc nc ngoi.

u tvi mc gi

th trng hin ti

4 VPBank, HBB,

ABB, Seabank

- C quy tng ti sn mc thp hn trung bnh nhm Ngn hng thngmi c phn so snh.

- Tc tng trng tng ti sn, doanh thu, li nhun nhanh nhngkhng n nh.

- Kh nng sinh li mc thp v mc ri ro cao so vi mc trungbnh nhm Ngn hng thng mi c phn so snh.

- C k hoch bn c phn cho i tc chin lc nc ngoi hoc c i tc chin lc nc ngoi.

Cha u t

Ngun: BVSC


20/39


20

Bng 13: So snh cc ch tiu nh gi vi cc ngn hng trong khu vc

n v: 1 USD Vn ha th trng ROAA (%) ROAE (%) P/E P/B P/S

China 60.201.899.016 1,03 19,57 18,12 3,10 4,18

Ind & Comm Bk Of China - H 259.999.686.366 1,01 16,23 19,15 3,03 4,38

China Construction Bank-H 209.815.057.026 1,15 18,39 18,02 3,19 4,33Bank Of China Ltd - H 156.336.195.039 0,99 14,00 13,77 1,94 2,93

Bank Of Communications Co-H 61.108.839.999 1,06 18,16 18,66 3,07 4,19

China Merchants Bank 44.710.603.082 1,36 24,76 19,97 4,77 5,68

China Citic Bank - H 30.306.137.842 0,97 14,38 17,65 1,92 3,64

Industrial Bank Co Ltd 18.246.170.550 1,17 31,17 14,29 3,42 3,26

Shanghai Pudong Devel Bank-A 16.686.279.822 0,69 20,74 20,84 4,29 3,12

China Minsheng Banking-A 14.995.798.750 0,83 22,65 14,79 2,18 2,43

Bank Of Beijing Co Ltd 12.048.958.307 1,07 18,34 21,05 3,29 6,02

Shenzhen Development Bank-A 6.257.651.497 0,86 27,04 14,72 3,50 2,23Huaxia Bank Co Ltd-A 5.380.614.036 0,40 16,71 17,56 2,95 1,56

Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd -A 3.965.131.425 1,44 16,96 25,28 3,60 8,11

Bank Of Nanjing Co Ltd 2.969.462.484 1,36 14,47 17,87 2,18 6,66

India 4.486.754.832 1,09 17,00 12,73 1,69 1,42

State Bank Of India 15.444.835.835 0,97 17,27 6,25 1,01 0,58

Icici Bank Ltd 15.184.378.239 0,77 9,84 18,66 1,38 0,98

Hdfc Bank Limited 8.212.079.398 1,42 17,72 21,63 2,86 2,57

Axis Bank Limited 5.122.815.873 1,16 17,44 19,47 2,35 2,18

Punjab National Bank 2.678.099.845 1,04 15,56 7,12 1,06 0,95Bank Of India 2.624.298.500 1,22 23,47 5,44 0,99 0,68

Centurion Bank Of Punjab Ltd 1.936.541.438 0,81 10,43 50,47 4,67 3,83

Bank Of Baroda 1.698.334.426 0,94 15,30 4,75 0,60 0,48

Canara Bank 1.656.047.400 1,03 16,64 4,00 0,62 0,40

Union Bank Of India 1.212.486.817 1,22 22,13 3,79 0,66 0,46

Indian Overseas Bank 958.799.513 1,30 27,07 3,47 0,79 0,44

Corporation Bank 853.500.979 1,11 14,23 4,93 0,98 0,97

Yes Bank Ltd 745.594.547 1,24 13,88 15,54 3,94 4,00

Indonesia 3.282.267.635 1,79 16,00 19,57 2,54 2,38Bank Rakyat Indonesia 7.428.333.499 2,70 26,64 13,33 3,28 2,59

Bank Central Asia Pt 6.894.078.810 2,27 23,32 13,80 2,95 3,23

Bank Mandiri 6.185.762.521 1,48 15,64 12,05 1,85 0,04

Bank Danamon Pt 2.698.219.216 2,47 20,88 11,24 2,22 1,66

Bank Internasional Indone Pt 2.496.939.282 0,75 7,64 46,18 4,47 3,46

Bank Negara Indonesia Pt 2.056.679.877 0,51 5,61 28,62 1,27 0,96

Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk Pt 1.778.133.103 1,81 12,08 18,94 2,16 3,22

Bank Niaga Tbk Pt 1.248.199.250 1,52 15,42 14,44 2,12 1,91

Lippo Bank Tbk Pt 1.169.337.208 2,04 20,41 15,62 2,85 2,67Bank Uob Buana Tbk Pt 866.993.585 2,39 12,31 21,43 2,20 4,05


21/39


21

n v: 1 USD Vn ha th trng ROAA (%) ROAE (%) P/E P/B P/S

Malaysia 6.045.667.441 1,16 17,54 11,06 2,06 2,29

Public Bank Bhd-Foreign Mkt 11.009.255.456 1,32 23,12 14,47 3,81 3,51

Public Bank Bhd 10.901.322.358 1,32 23,12 14,33 3,78 3,47

Malayan Banking Bhd 10.516.107.636 1,32 17,63 10,40 1,70 2,21

Bumiputra-Commerce Hldgs Bhd 7.725.997.783 1,64 20,32 9,26 1,56 1,97

Hong Leong Bank Berhad 2.776.518.822 0,94 13,80 10,69 1,70 2,22

Rhb Capital Bhd 2.698.173.737 0,68 11,91 10,82 1,19 1,39

Hong Leong Financial Group 1.460.611.472 0,68 13,64 8,12 1,13 1,21

Alliance Financial Group Bhd 1.277.352.262 1,41 16,77 10,41 1,58 2,34

Philippines 1.851.387.397 1,64 13,62 13,11 1,52 2,44

Bank Of Philippine Islands 2.567.936.530 1,64 14,89 13,61 1,67 2,47

Banco De Oro Unibank Inc 2.033.145.896 1,05 11,68 13,99 1,41 1,71

China Banking Corporation 953.079.767 2,22 14,28 11,73 1,48 3,13

Singapore 20.169.922.827 1,19 13,28 12,43 1,58 3,30

Dbs Group Holdings Ltd 21.005.341.177 1,06 11,67 11,78 1,38 2,78

United Overseas Bank Ltd 20.852.837.435 1,25 13,00 13,54 1,75 3,37

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp 18.651.589.867 1,27 15,18 11,98 1,62 3,76

Thailand 5.255.713.546 1,37 15,06 7,49 1,35 1,89

Bangkok Bank Public Co Ltd 6.566.672.450 1,25 12,23 10,86 1,21 2,03

Kasikornbank Pcl 4.904.083.094 1,55 15,94 3,39 1,46 2,04

Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co 4.296.385.095 1,31 17,02 8,22 1,39 1,59

Vietnam 470.648.299 1,89 20,96 9,49 1,64 4,24Vietcombank 1.020.089.733 1,20 17,90 7,72 2,08 2,73

Asia Commercial Bank 779.454.145 2,71 44,49 6,04 2,67 4,26

Sacombank 606.656.455 3,13 27,36 7,03 1,64 4,10

Techcombank 382.016.364 1,79 19,13 12,35 2,00 5,18

Exim Bank 407.272.727 1,78 11,25 14,50 1,14 6,76

East Asia Bank 242.424.242 1,68 13,96 12,04 1,38 4,70

Military Bank 169.696.970 1,74 15,27 7,80 0,96 3,54

Vietnam International Bank 157.575.758 1,11 18,31 8,42 1,24 2,62

Trung bnh khu vc 12.720.532.624 1,40 16,63 13,00 1,93 2,77Ngun: Bloomberg, BVSC (Dliu cc Ngn hng trong khu vc c ly vo ngy 03/07/2008)

Ngn hng Gi Ngn hng Gi

Ngn hng TMCP Ngoi thng(Vietcombank)

38.000

Ngn hng TMCP XNK Vit Nam(Eximbank)

24.000

Ngn hng TMCP Chu (ACB) 48.900 Ngn hng TMCPng (EAB) 25.000

Ngn hng TMCP Si Gn Thngtn (Sacombank)

22.500

Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MB) 14.000

Ngn hng TMCP K thng VitNam (Techcombank)

25.000

Ngn hng TMCP Quc t Vit Nam (VIB) 13.000

Ngun: Gi tham kho trn bou tchng khon ngy 01/07/2008


22/39


22

Ngn hng TMCP An Bnh (ABB)

BO CO KT QU KINH DOANH BNG CN I K TON

n v: triu ng 2005 2006 2007 n v: triu ng 2005 2006 2007

Tng TN hot ng 18.637 120.647 421.545 Tng ti sn c 679.708 3.113.898 17.174.117

Thu nhp li thun 18.633 75.602 324.363 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 5.819 33.195 149.751

Li/ l thun t H dch v (357) 5.114 5.587 Tin gi ti NHNN 37.546 31.323 365.006

Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi 193 245 2.515 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 146.941 1.536.087 5.643.866

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - - (12.936) Chng khon kinh doanh - - 35.519

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT 168 212 102.043 Cho vay khch hng 405.440 1.116.500 6.800.285

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc - 39.474 (27) Chng khon u t 76.023 343.436 3.659.331

Tng CP hot ng 8.157 26.414 146.269 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 1.828 6.664 61.984

Chi ph tin lng 3.710 10.114 49.909 Ti sn cnh v hnh - - 17.889

Chi ph khu hao 267 663 7.667 Ti sn C khc 6.111 46.693 440.486

Chi ph hot ng khc 4.180 15.637 88.693 Tng nphi tr 491.632 1.923.624 14.694.917

Li nhun thun tHKD 10.480 94.233 275.276 NChnh ph v NHNN 35.000 22.966 217.172

Chi ph DP RRTD - 13.473 44.510 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 241.224 297.686 7.268.987

Tng li nhun trc thu 10.480 80.760 230.766 Tin gi ca khch hng 209.317 1.551.159 6.776.279

Thu TNDN 3.201 22.613 69.017 Cc cng c ti chnh khc - - 366

Li nhun sau thu 7.279 58.147 161.749 Vn ti tr, u thc u t - 16.191 11.164

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Pht hnh giy tc gi - - 204.949

EPS N/A 971 1.219 Cc khon nkhc 6.091 35.622 216.000ROAA N/A 3,07% 1,59% Tng vn ch shu 188.076 1.190.274 2.479.200

ROAE N/A 8,44% 8,82% Vn ca TCTD 178.860 1.131.951 2.300.001

NIM N/A 4,09% 3,33% Qu ca TCTD 618 16.527 39.187

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 43,77% 21,89% 34,70% Li nhun cha phn phi 8.598 41.796 140.012

NPL N/A 3,88% 2,05%Tng nphi tr v VCSH 679.708 3.113.898 17.174.117


23/39


23

Ngn hng TMCP ng Nam (Seabank)



Tng TN hot ng 76.870 195.846 552.333 Tng ti sn c 6.124.937 10.200.417 26.241.087


Li/ l thun t H dch v 1.980 8.236 6.692 Tin gi ti NHNN 73.895 214.772 511.669

Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi (6.287) (12.986) 1.421 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 2.658.972 3.317.688 8.584.977

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - 24.442 27.524 Chng khon kinh doanh - 263.488 759.110

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 479 7 22 Cho vay khch hng 1.347.680 3.353.999 10.994.813

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua c phn (328) - 47.659 Chng khon u t 1.218.342 2.040.000 3.968.000

Tng CP hot ng 26.231 52.126 103.921 Gp vn, u t di hn 22.000 27.500 44.900

Li nhun thun tHKD 50.639 143.720 448.412 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 14.064 24.700 29.260

Chi ph DP RRTD - 6.843 39.658 Ti sn cnh v hnh - 7.937 35.796

Tng li nhun trc thu 50.639 136.877 408.754 Ti sn C khc 735.480 877.568 1.193.193

Thu TNDN 4 38.326 109.906 Tng nphi tr 5.833.161 9.144.882 22.874.629

Li nhun sau thu 50.635 98.551 298.848 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 2.805.478 4.834.294 9.504.696

Li ch ca cng thiu s 10.532 - - Tin gi ca khch hng 2.312.406 3.511.683 10.744.178

Li nhun thun trong nm 40.103 98.551 298.848 Vn ti tr, u thc u t - - 30

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Pht hnh giy tc gi - - 2.000.000

EPS N/A 2.638 2.098 Cc khon nkhc 715.277 798.905 625.725

ROAA 1,20% 1,21% 1,64% Tng vn ch shu 291.776 1.055.535 3.366.458ROAE 22,34% 14,63% 13,52% Vn ca TCTD 250.054 950.054 3.046.300

NIM 2,19% 2,48% 2,84% Qu ca TCTD 1.571 6.930 21.310


NPL N/A 0,16% N/ANphi tr v VCSH 6.124.937 10.200.417 26.241.087


24/39


24

Ngn hng TMCP cc doanh nghip ngoi quc doanh (VPBank)





Li/ l thun t H dch v 6.217 8.746 30.288 Tin gi ti NHNN 105.234 1.306.886 1.211.821

Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi (9.718) (2.583) 6.538 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 583.582 1.136.655 693.862

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - - 71.146 Chng khon kinh doanh - - 132.427

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 22.485 65.822 82.315 Cho vay khch hng 3.295.408 4.993.976 13.287.472

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua c phn - 1.851 3.512 Chng khon u t 1.778.125 2.091.813 1.678.327


Chi ph tin lng 32.726 56.659 128.566 Ti sn cnh 32.794 129.345 270.417

Chi ph khu hao 2.943 8.296 25.742 Ti sn C khc 198.685 319.722 528.045

Chi ph hot ng khc 45.374 71.876 165.988 Tng nphi tr 5.761.898 9.275.597 15.956.599

Li nhun thun tHKD 83.294 168.245 339.504 NChnh ph v NHNN 30.000 - -

Chi ph DP RRTD 7.085 11.437 25.981 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 2.398.230 3.386.736 2.439.615

Tng li nhun trc thu 76.209 156.808 313.523 Tin gi ca khch hng 3.209.771 5.630.373 12.764.366

Thu TNDN 20.626 43.388 86.802 Vn ti tr, u thc u t - 38.826 244.021

Li nhun sau thu 55.583 113.420 226.721 Cc khon nkhc 123.897 219.662 508.597

EPS 2.446 2.447 1.763 Tng vn ch shu 328.265 835.619 2.180.834

ROAA 1,09% 1,40% 1,61% Vn ca TCTD 309.611 756.160 2.018.660ROAE 21,07% 19,49% 15,03% Qu ca TCTD 3.882 25.428 57.037

NIM 2,99% 3,02% 3,53% Li nhun cha phn phi 14.772 54.031 105.137

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 49,32% 44,85% 48,54% Tng nphi tr v VCSH 6.090.163 10.111.216 18.137.433


25/39


25

Ngn hng TMCP Nh H Ni (Habubank)






Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi 3.556 1.367 2.718 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 1.109.794 3.603.660 10.894.263

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - 7.485 9.074 Chng khon kinh doanh - 5.343 68.324

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT 58.487 114.628 - Cho vay khch hng 3.293.681 5.915.744 9.285.862

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 550 8.037 4.356 Chng khon u t 890.324 1.559.234 2.411.833

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP 1.527 1.056 12.800 Gp vn, u t di hn 129.515 267.975


Chi ph tin lng 22.401 46.213 88.890 Ti sn cnh v hnh 3.043 7.518 5.186

Chi ph khu hao 6.190 9.719 19.310 Bt ng sn u t 10.557 8.004

Chi ph hot ng khc 30.682 52.899 84.063 Ti sn C khc 83.136 202.099 299.622

LN thun tHKD 117.880 279.072 545.678 Tng nphi tr 5.133.327 9.928.937 20.339.339

Chi ph DP RRTD 14.783 31.025 84.923 NChnh ph v NHNN 343.826 193.271 307.434

Tng LN trc thu 103.097 248.047 460.755 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 1.462.284 4.857.999 10.805.535

Thu TNDN 27.907 62.854 95.123 Tin gi ca khch hng 3.096.275 4.484.804 8.467.382

Li nhun sau thu 75.190 185.193 365.632 Vn ti tr, u thc u t 46.618 67.736 97.964

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Pht hnh giy tc gi - 131.292 292.021EPS 2.097 2.379 2.229 Cc khon nkhc 184.324 193.835 369.003

ROAA 1,63% 2,15% 2,08% Tng vn ch shu 391.464 1.756.381 3.179.345

ROAE 23,31% 17,24% 14,82% Vn ca TCTD 300.000 1.569.386 2.820.386

NIM 2,18% 2,68% 3,68% Qu ca TCTD 20.949 30.224 64.267


NPL N/A 2,62% 2,49%Tng nphi tr v VCSH 5.524.791 11.685.318 23.518.684


26/39


26

Ngn hng TMCP ng (EAB)




Thu nhp li thun 207.885 271.606 511.380 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 531.010 1.121.209 1.956.523

Li/ l thun t H dch v 76.264 90.293 188.418 Tin gi ti NHNN 408.186 486.526 1.930.541

Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi 6.988 28.977 16.285 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 752.965 1.231.689 3.056.832

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - 17.677 94.236 Chng khon kinh doanh - - 1.110

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - - - Cho vay khch hng 5.947.768 7.956.946 17.744.809

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 942 16.232 27.144 Chng khon u t - 462.116 1.078.018

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP 4.148 6.665 12.858 Gp vn, u t di hn 178.993 53.510 138.220


Chi ph tin lng 50.011 68.549 139.179 Ti sn cnh v hnh - 306 18.904

Chi ph khu hao 15.758 28.072 49.033 Ti sn C khc 545.637 491.767 1.157.156


Li nhun thun tHKD 155.447 235.410 504.188 NChnh ph v NHNN - - 4

Chi ph DP RRTD 17.001 24.618 50.122 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 622.900 621.086 6.070.570


Thu TNDN 37.604 50.840 121.801 Vn ti tr, u thc u t 183.812 204.989 200.736

Li nhun sau thu 100.842 159.952 332.265 Pht hnh giy tc gi - - 1.055.508

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Cc khon nkhc 483.648 411.703 2.495.758ROAA 1,35% 1,56% 1,68% Tng vn ch shu 711.758 1.531.211 3.229.218

ROAE 16,20% 14,26% 13,96% Vn ca TCTD 500.476 880.480 2.828.479

NIM 3,28% 3,15% 3,01% Qu ca TCTD 70.653 447.651 79.860




27/39


27

Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MB)







Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - 17.601 51.746 Chng khon kinh doanh 477.933 251.791 -

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT 4.659 32.359 29.256 Cho vay khch hng 4.218.138 5.742.942 10.242.553

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 30.155 26.210 16.468 Chng khon u t - 667.928 3.061.490

Tng CP hot ng 74.908 133.905 255.752 Gp vn, u t di hn 123.302 334.025 1.137.949








Li nhun sau thu 109.045 211.421 359.147 Pht hnh giy tc gi - 220.000 1.220.000

EPS 3.463 2.293 Cc khon nkhc 150.623 214.240 425.442

ROAA 1,48% 1,94% 1,74% Tng vn ch shu 636.598 1.365.654 3.337.483ROAE 19,50% 21,12% 15,27% Vn ca TCTD 473.975 1.102.796 2.815.946

NIM 3,58% 3,96% 3,14% Qu ca TCTD 57.273 75.590 111.439




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28

Ngn hng TMCP Quc t (VIBank)






Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi - (3.490) 13.714 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 2.209.059 3.249.317 12.846.626

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - - - Chng khon kinh doanh - - 4.787

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - 44.141 80.642 Cho vay khch hng 5.255.206 9.058.234 16.611.779

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc (1.641) 42.021 104.329 Chng khon u t 627.684 2.587.467 6.676.432

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP - 6.273 17.372 Gp vn, u t di hn 87.045 30.056 210.806



Chi ph khu hao 5.307 17.675 33.175 Ti sn C khc 393.445 598.776 1.147.202


Li nhun thun tHKD 105.470 307.643 605.453 NChnh ph v NHNN - 66.657 -

Chi ph DP RRTD 10.206 107.637 179.754 Tin gi vay TCTD khc 2.916.487 5.045.454 12.018.720



Li nhun sau thu 69.281 146.090 308.822 Pht hnh giy tc gi - - 1.538.739

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Cc khon nkhc 189.790 360.163 5.782.644EPS N/A 2.447 2.510 Tng vn ch shu 592.787 1.189.931 2.182.533

ROAA 1,06% 1,15% 1,11% Vn ca TCTD 510.000 1.020.547 2.065.142

ROAE 15,91% 16,39% 18,31% Qu ca TCTD 12.141 18.066 32.140

NIM 3,08% 3,27% 2,69% Chnh lch t gi hi oi - - 1.571


NPL N/A N/A N/ANphi tr v VCSH 8.967.681 16.526.623 39.305.035


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29

Ngn hng TMCP K Thng (Techcombank)



Tng TN hot ng 443.297 611.359 1.216.008 Tng ti sn c 10.666.106 17.326.353 39.542.496




Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - 5.065 81.761 Cho vay khch hng 5.293.062 8.696.101 20.486.131

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 22.764 39.156 4.462 Chng khon kinh doanh - - -

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP 549 724 2.992 Chng khon u t 1.942.620 2.876.804 6.842.172









Li nhun sau thu 206.156 256.906 510.384 Pht hnh giy tc gi - 192.242 1.750.715

EPS - 2.892 2.452 Cc khon nkhc 296.696 400.339 819.723

ROAA 2,25% 1,84% 1,79% Tng vn ch shu 1.009.405 1.761.687 3.573.416ROAE 27,05% 18,54% 19,13% Vn ca TCTD 831.266 1.504.313 2.998.458

NIM 4,00% 3,43% 3,40% Qu ca TCTD 50.343 86.253 146.322




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30

Ngn hng TMCP xut nhp khu Vit Nam (Eximbank)



Tng TN hot ng 357.720 590.000 1.016.602 Tng ti sn c 11.369.233 18.327.479 33.710.424

Thu nhp li thun 215.872 351.550 684.629 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 645.391 2.898.007 1.850.102



Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - - 85 Chng khon kinh doanh - - 7.580

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - 41.222 57.190 Cng c ti chnh khc - 14.477 -


Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP 56.006 1.014 21.736 Chng khon u t 1.103.084 1.587.239 6.076.844


Li nhun thun tHKD 240.635 405.323 662.973 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 91.385 145.425 183.624

Chi ph DP RRTD 212.078 46.736 34.126 Ti sn cnh v hnh 55.793 79.569 346.514

Tng li nhun trc thu 28.557 358.587 628.847 Ti sn C khc 432.353 435.777 604.443

Thu TNDN 7.456 100.118 165.430 Tng nphi tr 10.533.694 16.380.812 27.415.481

Li nhun sau thu 21.101 258.469 463.417 NChnh ph v NHNN 329.248 433.582 28.059

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 1.571.646 2.128.517 1.214.024

EPS N/A 1.604 2.379 Tin gi ca khch hng 8.352.111 13.141.175 22.906.123

ROAA N/A 1,74% 1,78% Cng c ti chnh khc - - 3.393

ROAE N/A 18,58% 11,25% Vn ti tr, u thc u t 56.072 40.170 25.255

NIM 4,27% 2,84% 3,06% Pht hnh giy tc gi - 326.339 8.445

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 32,73% 31,30% 34,79% Cc khon nkhc 224.617 311.029 3.230.182

NPL N/A 0,85% 0,88%Tng vn ch shu 835.539 1.946.667 6.294.943

Vn ca TCTD 715.396 1.688.273 5.789.858

Qu ca TCTD 105.790 56.903 107.047

Li nhun cha phn phi 14.353 201.491 398.038

Tng nphi tr v VCSH 11.369.233 18.327.479 33.710.424


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31

Ngn hng TMCP Si gn thng tn (Sacombank)



Tng TN hot ng 596.563 1.062.495 2.441.583 Tng ti sn c 14.454.338 24.776.182 64.572.875

Thu nhp li thun 435.009 680.366 1.151.872 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 1.370.108 2.827.452 3.335.063



Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD 19.532 7.471 599.873 Chng khon kinh doanh 96.602 263.631 4.142.069

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - 135.954 208.599 Cng c ti chnh khc - 1.060 4.911



Tng CP hot ng 260.307 408.265 741.225 Gp vn, u t di hn 316.988 780.577 1.495.608

Chi ph tin lng 119.701 187.462 345.942 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 329.776 416.535 590.400

Chi ph khu hao 21.164 34.617 47.551 Ti sn cnh thu ti chnh - 17.812 22.831

Chi ph hot ng khc 119.442 186.186 347.732 Ti sn cnh v hnh 60.014 273.866 406.582

Li nhun thun tHKD 336.256 654.230 1.700.358 Ti sn C khc 530.700 804.211 1.665.795

Chi ph DP RRTD 23.449 42.902 118.387 Tng nphi tr 12.566.658 21.905.836 57.223.216

Tng li nhun trc thu 312.807 611.328 1.581.971 NChnh ph v NHNN 170.370 107.000 750.177

Thu TNDN 74.383 141.200 184.074 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 502.400 815.473 4.508.977

Li nhun sau thu 238.424 470.128 1.397.897 Tin gi ca khch hng 10.467.158 17.511.580 44.231.944

Vn ti tr, u thc u t 163.630 374.668 1.003.293Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Pht hnh giy tc gi 956.546 2.529.299 5.197.380

EPS N/A 2.226 3.983 Cc khon nkhc 306.554 567.816 1.531.445

ROAA 1,92% 2,40% 3,13% Tng vn ch shu 1.887.680 2.870.346 7.349.659

ROAE 16,70% 19,76% 27,36% Vn ca TCTD 1.250.948 2.248.726 5.662.485

NIM 4,24% 4,37% 3,19% Qu ca TCTD 457.844 185.474 452.645

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 43,63% 38,43% 30,36% Li nhun cha phn phi 178.888 436.146 1.234.529



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32

Ngn hng TMCP Chu (ACB)



Tng TN hot ng 692.693 1.190.240 3.020.822 Tng ti sn c 24.272.864 44.645.039 85.391.681

Thu nhp li thun 514.265 820.572 1.311.106 TM, vng bc, qu 1.532.492 2.284.848 4.926.850

Li/ l thun t H dch v 97.208 148.335 271.215 Tin gi ti NHNN 988.784 1.562.926 5.144.737


Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD 2.626 31.520 344.990 Chng khon kinh doanh 39.218 640.195 501.293

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - 65.757 896.792 Cho vay khch hng 9.360.692 16.954.114 31.676.320

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 7.014 15.597 4.926 Chng khon u t 4.823.767 4.228.621 9.132.829

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP 31.979 38.139 36.653 Gp vn, u t di hn 136.716 443.458 762.469



Chi ph khu hao 25.520 47.509 72.655 Ti sn C khc 585.540 1.537.475 3.527.468


Li nhun thun tHKD 403.751 727.816 2.216.172 NChnh ph v NHNN 967.312 941.286 654.630


Tng li nhun trc thu 391.550 687.219 2.126.815 Tin gi ca khch hng 19.984.920 33.606.013 55.283.104


Li nhun sau thu 299.201 505.576 1.760.008 Pht hnh giy tc gi - 1.650.069 11.688.796

Li ch ca cng thiu s - 148 215 Cc khon nkhc 648.422 3.212.683 4.190.760Li nhun thun trong nm 299.201 505.428 1.759.793

EPS 3.811 4.527 8.095 Tng vn ch shu 1.283.206 1.653.987 6.257.849

ROAA 1,51% 1,47% 2,71% Vn ca TCTD 948.316 1.100.047 2.630.060

ROAE 30,02% 34,43% 44,49% Qu ca TCTD 138.973 187.727 2.192.037

NIM 2,85% 2,70% 2,29% Li nhun cha phn phi 195.917 366.213 1.435.752

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 41,71% 38,85% 26,64% Li ch ca cng thiu s - 42.528 -

NPL 0,30% 0,20% 0,08%Nphi tr v VCSH 24.272.864 44.645.039 85.391.681


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33

Ngn hng Nh ng bng sng Cu Long (MHB)





Li/ l thun t H dch v (71) 2.293 10.026 Tin gi ti NHNN 145.379 261.926 402.160

Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi (91) 1.910 17.411 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 1.990.291 3.535.194 4.678.099

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - - 7.875 Chng khon kinh doanh - - 550.601

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - - 10.313 Cho vay khch hng 8.344.174 9.976.585 13.756.662


Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP Gp vn, u t di hn - 36.000 -








Thu TNDN hin hnh 20.425 28.814 49.900 Vn ti tr, u thc u t 992.126 725.342 998.919

Thu TNDN hon li - - 4.606 Pht hnh giy tc gi 3.380.989 6.022.464

Li nhun sau thu 52.522 74.092 140.319Cc khon nkhc 318.091 451.668 857.193

Li ch ca cng thiu s - - 2.294 Tng vn ch shu 850.111 929.027 1.069.197

Li nhun thun trong nm 52.522 74.092 138.025 Vn ca TCTD 850.111 803.591 810.191

ROAA 0,50% 0,47% 0,61% Qu ca TCTD - 124.598 239.113

ROAE 6,39% 8,33% 14,04% Li nhun cha phn phi - 838 19.893

NIM 3,45% 2,83% 2,70%Li ch ca cng thiu s - - 26.294



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34

Ngn hng cng thng Vit Nam (VietinBank)



Tng TN hot ng 3.023.986 3.808.236 4.575.900 Tng ti sn c 93.270.804 115.765.970 135.363.026

Thu nhp li thun 2.712.439 3.286.651 3.556.978 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 1.250.758 1.177.131 1.436.603

Li/ l thun t H dch v 178.627 206.578 272.684 Tin gi ti NHNN 5.260.666 8.020.515 5.620.312


Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - (194) 22.765 Chng khon kinh doanh - 472.737 867.393

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT - - - Cho vay khch hng 64.159.522 74.449.345 80.091.149


Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP - 41.394 64.638 Gp vn, u t di hn 261.576 329.137 445.380

Tng CP hot ng 1.361.927 1.790.546 2.146.995 Ti sn cnh hu hnh - 1.001.652 958.538

Chi ph tin lng 482.827 863.131 1.113.722 Ti sn cnh v hnh - 130.368 159.898

Chi ph khu hao 256.937 218.725 275.233 Ti sn C khc 2.645.505 2.213.747 2.160.363


Li nhun thun tHKD 1.662.059 2.017.690 2.428.905 NChnh ph v NHNN 1.105.411 265.239 372.898

Chi ph DP RRTD 1.409.035 1.492.506 1.651.137 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 12.642.276 4.756.672 5.042.207


Thu TNDN 46.155 102.091 178.129 Vn ti tr, u thc u t - 19.196.691 21.525.679

Li nhun sau thu 206.869 423.093 599.639 Pht hnh giy tc gi 4.252.876 - -

Cc khon nkhc 5.659.755 2.160.516 3.131.812Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Tng vn ch shu 4.908.773 4.999.839 5.607.022

ROAA 0,40% 0,48% N/A Vn ca TCTD 3.327.888 3.864.202 3.974.522

ROAE 8,54% 11,31% N/A Qu ca TCTD 1.374.016 1.031.264 1.479.443

NIM 3,30% 3,31% 2,97% Chnh lch t gi hi oi - 57.433 61.139


NPL N/A N/A N/ATng nphi tr v VCSH 93.270.804 115.765.970 135.363.026


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35

Ngn hng u tv pht trin Vit Nam (BIDV)




Thu nhp li thun 2.929.368 3.350.841 4.856.449 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 1.184.082 1.383.221 1.975.966Li/ l thun t H dch v 246.598 392.994 624.190 Tin gi ti NHNN 4.576.418 17.688.317 8.758.166


Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD 499 221.513 159.830 Chng khon kinh doanh 14.304 45.152 781.686

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT 599.579 - - Cng c ti chnh khc - - 31.644

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 253.549 633.803 1.977.437 Cho vay khch hng 82.716.548 97.201.778 129.079.350


Tng CP hot ng 1.325.777 1.634.088 2.384.821 Gp vn, u t di hn 438.152 800.231 2.251.228

Chi ph tin lng 530.649 749.954 1.290.968 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 638.750 839.378 900.599

Chi ph khu hao 161.196 220.398 273.626 Ti sn cnh thu ti chnh - 430.179 496.694

Chi ph hot ng khc 633.932 663.736 820.227 Ti sn cnh v hnh 189.353 286.644 355.931

Li nhun thun tHKD 2.772.566 3.105.983 5.426.083 Ti sn C khc 1.726.040 4.753.535 6.134.349

Chi ph DP RRTD 2.031.687 1.993.491 3.397.837 Tng nphi tr 114.872.466 153.671.725 192.534.745

Tng li nhun trc thu 740.879 1.112.492 2.028.246 NChnh ph v NHNN 15.955.376 16.781.239 18.229.032

Thu TNDN 180.886 110.779 496.830 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 2.060.888 2.674.663 7.886.843

Li nhun sau thu 559.993 1.001.713 1.531.416 Tin gi ca khch hng 85.746.724 106.495.878 135.335.702

Li ch ca cng thiu s - - 1.907 Cng c ti chnh khc - 602 -

Li nhun thun trong nm 559.993 1.001.713 1.529.509 Vn ti tr, u thc u t 8.142.448 16.172.559 18.088.670

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Pht hnh giy tc gi - 7.115.749 6.521.758

ROAA N/A 0,71% 0,84% Cc khon nkhc 2967030 4.431.035 6.472.740

ROAE N/A 10,44% 15,96% Tng vn ch shu 6.530.861 7.551.358 11.634.793

NIM 5,00% 2,48% 2,82% Vn ca TCTD 4.712.982 5.477.423 9.114.040

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 32,35% 34,47% 30,53% Qu ca TCTD 1.652.057 1.410.543 1.207.185

NPL 11,92% 4,80% Chnh lch t gi hi oi 50.859 54.897 55.181

Chnh lch nh gi li TS - 16.137 -

Li nhun cha phn phi 114.963 592.358 1.258.387

Li ch ca cng thiu s - - 341.610

Tng nphi tr v VCSH 121.403.327 161.223.083 204.511.148


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36

Ngn hng TMCP Ngoi thng Vit Nam (Vietcombank)




Thu nhp li thun 3.311.099 3.884.298 3.981.000 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 2.006.412 2.418.207 3.202.800

Li/ l thun t H dch v 447.559 548.252 610.000 Tin gi ti NHNN 6.336.385 11.848.460 11.662.018


Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD 18.921 100.776 228.000 Cho vay khch hng 59.701.251 66.252.049 93.901.561


Thu nhp t gp vn, mua CP 45.136 160.126 333.000 Gp vn, u t di hn 476.181 964.687 1.646.523

Tng CP hot ng 1.188.783 1.219.508 1.905.000 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 939.992 955.458 598.524


Chi ph khu hao 231.734 314.495 332.000 Ti sn C khc 1.158.239 970.445 3.923.987


Li nhun thun tHKD 3.097.568 4.061.895 4.262.000 NChnh ph v NHNN 171.671 5.878.041 19.961.442

Chi ph DP RRTD 1.337.685 168.227 1.233.000 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 15.853.159 23.083.960 12.685.256

Tng li nhun trc thu 1.759.883 3.893.668 3.029.000 Tin gi ca khch hng 109.637.231 119.778.871 145.437.503

Thu TNDN 467.330 1.016.647 848.000 Vn ti tr, u thc u t - - 191.033

Li nhun sau thu 1.292.553 2.877.021 2.181.000 Pht hnh giy tc gi - 3.840.742 -

Li ch ca cng thiu s 2.344 1.858 - Cc khon nkhc 2.435.780 3.168.064 4.453.992

Li nhun thun trong nm 1.290.209 2.875.163 2.181.000 Tng vn ch shu 8.416.426 11.127.248 13.234.934Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Vn ca TCTD 5.455.546 5.537.564 5.641.233

ROAA 1,01% 1,89% 1,20% Qu ca TCTD 2.812.846 5.331.561 2.459.564

ROAE 16,57% 29,44% 17,90% Li nhun cha phn phi 148.034 258.123 5.134.137

NIM 2,68% 2,65% 2,29%Li ch ca cng thiu s 206.344 75.094 -



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37

Ngn hng Nng nghip v pht trin Nng thn Vit Nam (Agribank)


n v: triu ng 2006 2007 n v: triu ng 2006 2007

Tng TN hot ng 10.971.313 15.848.490 Tng ti sn c 246.529.869 326.896.862

Thu nhp li thun 9.013.985 11.892.975 Tin mt, vng bc, qu 4.579.435 5.812.128Li/ l thun t H dch v 368.981 503.036 Tin gi ti NHNN 14.428.361 17.628.700

Li/ l thun t KD ngoi hi 127.608 67.384 Gi, cho vay TCTD khc 13.602.228 12.139.626

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKKD - - Chng khon kinh doanh - 89.401

Li/ l thun t mua bn CKT 312.147 53.235 Cho vay khch hng 186.348.408 247.092.135

Li/ l thun t hot ng khc 1.133.285 3.286.796 Chng khon u t 19.931.658 32.972.471

Thu nhp t gp vn, mua c phn 15.307 45.064 Gp vn, u t di hn 409.104 678.777

Tng chi ph hot ng 5.222.982 6.769.483 Ti sn cnh hu hnh 1.856.525 2.234.051

Chi ph tin lng 2.314.829 3.676.307 Ti sn cnh v hnh 166.539 312.160

Chi ph khu hao 475.523 662.618 Ti sn C khc 5.207.611 7.937.413

Chi ph hot ng khc 2.432.630 2.430.558 Tng nphi tr 236.150.245 311.377.456

Li nhun thun tHKD 5.748.331 9.079.007 NChnh ph v NHNN 21.150.840 25.984.841

Chi ph DP RRTD 4.499.879 6.782.200 Tin gi v vay TCTD khc 18.356.474 17.815.726

Tng li nhun trc thu 1.248.452 2.296.807 Tin gi ca khch hng 158.159.599 230.003.049

Thu TNDN 346.961 640.236 Vn ti tr, u thc u t 13.966.338 12.529.661

Li nhun sau thu 901.491 1.656.571 Pht hnh giy tc gi 17.312.729 15.007.516

Li ch ca cng thiu s - 163 Cc khon nkhc 7.204.265 10.036.663

Li nhun thun trong nm 901.491 1.656.408 Tng vn ch shu 10.379.624 15.342.903

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh Vn ca TCTD 6.954.871 10.734.214

ROAA 0,40% 0,58% Qu ca TCTD 2.393.662 3.936.610

ROAE 9,02% 12,88% Chnh lch t gi hi oi 26.448 26.631

NIM 4,22% 4,37% Li nhun cha phn phi 1.004.643 645.448

Chi ph H/Thu nhp H 47,61% 42,71% Li ch ca cng thiu s - 176.503

NPL N/A 1,90%Tng nphi tr v VCSH 246.529.869 326.896.862


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