Bao Cao Kinh Te vi mo vn 2004

NGN HANG NHA NC VIT NAMSTATE BANK OF VIETNAMSTATE BANK OF VIETNAM

BO CO THNG NIN 2OO4Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam2

NGN HANG NHA NC VIT NAMSTATE BANK OF VIETNAMSTATE BANK OF VIETNAM

MUC LUC


Li ta cua Thng c 7Ban lanh ao Ngn hang Nha nc 9Tru s chnh va cac chi nhanh tnh, thanh ph 10H thng t chc tn dung Vit Nam 11S t chc cua Ngn hang Nha nc Vit Nam 12

Kinh t th gii va trong nc 15 Kinh t th gii va khu vc 16 Kinh t Vit Nam 20

San xut va dch vu 22Xut nhp khu hang hoa 24Ch s gia tiu dung 28Lao ng va vic lam 30Thu chi ngn sach Nha nc 31Tit kim va u t 35Can cn thanh toan quc t 36

Din bin tin t 41 Din bin tng phng tin thanh toan 42 Tn dung cua h thng cac t chc tn dung tng cao, ap ng nhu cu phat trin

kinh t, song ty trong n xu trong tng d n giam ang k 43 Huy ng vn cua toan h thng tng cao, nht la huy ng tin gi bng ngoai t 46 Lai sut VND va ngoai t nhn chung co xu hng tng nhe. Ring lai sut cho

vay ngoai t c duy tr n nh trong ca nm 2004 47 Ty gia tip tuc c duy tr n nh 49 Hoat ng cua th trng ngoai t lin ngn hang co nhiu chuyn bin ang k 50 Th trng u thu tn phiu Kho bac qua Ngn hang Nha nc nm 2004 din ra

si ng hn so vi nm 2003 51

Hoat ng cua Ngn hang Nha nc 54 iu hanh chnh sach tin t 56 Thc hin co hiu qua cac ni dung trong tm trong hoat ng tn dung ngn hang 62 Hoan thin c ch, chnh sach v quan ly ngoai hi 66 Nng cao cht lng ng tin trong lu thng 70 i mi t chc b may Ngn hang Nha nc 71 Tng cng thanh tra giam sat bao am an toan h thng 72 H thng ngn hang tip tuc c cung c va phat trin 72 Hin ai hoa ngn hang va h thng thanh toan, m rng va phat trin thanh toan

khng dung tin mt 75 y manh qua trnh hi nhp quc t trong lnh vc ngn hang 78

Trin vong kinh t v m va hoat ng ngn hang nm 2005 82 Trin vong kinh t v m toan cu va khu vc 84 Trin vong kinh t v m Vit Nam 86 Trin vong hoat ng ngn hang 89 Hoat ng i ngoai 97

Phu luc 101

ANNUAL REPORT 2OO4State Bank of Vietnam 5

CONTENTS

Foreword by the Governor 7Management Board of the State Bank of Vietnam 9Head Office and Provincial Branches 10Credit Insitutions System in Vietnam 11Organization Chart of the State Bank of Vietnam 12

Global and domestic economies 15 Global and Domestic Economies 16 Vietnamese Economy 20

Production and service 23Goods import and export 25Consumer Price Index 28Labor and employment 30Revenue and expenditure of the State Budget 31Investment and Saving 35International Balance of Payment in 2004 35

Monetary developments 41 Total liquidity developments 42 Significant credit expansion to meet the demand for economic growth while

reducing non-performing loan ratio 43 A surge in fund mobilization, especially in foreign currency deposits 46 A slight increase in VND and foreign currency interest rates. Stable foreign

currency lending rates 47 Stable exchange rates 49 Considerable improvement in foreign exchange inter-bank market operations 50 A more dynamic State Bank-based Treasury Bills auction market in 2004 51

Operations of the State Bank of Vietnam 55 Monetary policy management 56 Efficiently implement the core activities of banking credit operation 62 Improvement of foreign exchange policy and mechanism 66 Improved quality of the currency in circulation 70 Reorganization of SBV 71 Strengthen monitoring and supervision to safeguard the system of credit

institutions 72 The banking system has been further strengthened and developed 72 Modernization of banks and payment systems, expansion and development of

non-cash payments 75 Strongly accelerate the integration process of the banking sector 78

Macroeconomic outlook and banking activities in 2005 83 Global and regional macroeconomic outlook 84 Vietnams economic outlook 86 Banking activities outlook 88 External activities 97

Appendixes 101

Nm 2004 la nm co y ngha quantrong trong vic thc hin thanh cng khoach phat trin kinh t - xa hi 5 nm(2001-2005) va cung la nm th trng thgii va trong nc din bin phc tap.Nhng bt n chnh tr - xa hi mt snc trn th gii va s tng vot gia nhinliu, nguyn liu - mt nhn t chu yu cuau vao san xut a y lam phat ln caosau gn mt thp nin c duy tr mcthp. Song vi bc i thch hp, Vit Namvn vng bc trn con ng hi nhp,phat trin tng i toan din, at mc tngtrng GDP 7,69%, cao hn mc tng cua3 nm v trc. Nhiu ch tiu kinh t v mkhac at va vt k hoach ra. Lnh vcxut khu va u t nc ngoai la nhngim sang ang ghi nhn, gop phn taonn tang quan trong cho tng trng kinh tnm 2005.

Trong nm 2004 nganh ngn hangcung chu sc ep ln trc nhng bin ngkho lng trn th trng th gii va trongnc. Ngn hang Nha nc vi quan imiu hanh chnh sach tin t thn trong, lachon nhng giai phap thch hp a han chc nhng tac ng bt li cua din bingia ca, gi c s n nh tin t, lai sutva ty gia, ap ng u vn cho nhu cu tngtrng. Bn canh o, h thng ngn hangvn tip tuc c cung c va phat trinmanh me; cng ngh ngn hang nm 2004a co nhng bc phat trin mi tao a cho

Year 2004 marked as a decisiveyear for the success of Five Year Socio-Economic Development Plan (2001-2005) and a year with a number ofcomplex and unpredicted events ininternational and domestic markets.Rising inflation was recorded in 2004after a decade of keeping at a low level,this was attributed to the political andsocial disturbances in some countriesand an abrupt surge in fuel and rawmaterial prices, major inputs forproduction. Vietnam, however continuedto progress on its integration path andachieved fairly comprehensivedevelopments with GDP growth rate of7.69%, higher than those of previousthree years. In addition, a number ofother economic growth targets were alsoachieved or over fulfilled. Export andforeign investment were noticeablyshinning spots, creating a primaryfoundation for economic development in2005.

In 2004, the banking sector wasunder numerous pressures posed byunpredicted developments in bothinternational and domestic markets.However, the persistence of State Bank ofVietnam in pursuing prudent monetarypolicy management and applyingappropriate measures ,contributed toconstrain adverse impacts of price upswing,maintain the monetary, interest rate andexchange rate stability and satisfy thecapital needs for economic development. Inaddition, the banking sector continued to bestrengthened and vigorously developed in2004 with an encouraged progress

BO CO THNG NIN 2OO4Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam7 ANNUAL REPORT 2OO4State Bank of Vietnam 7

FOREWORD BY THE GOVERNORFOREWORD BY THE GOVERNOR

LI TA CUA THNG C

h thng ngn hang nng cao hn nanng lc canh tranh, thc hin tt vai trotrung gian tai chnh cua nn kinh t, gopphn tch cc vao thanh tu chung cua tnc. Tuy nhin, sc ep tng gia va nhucu tng trng kinh t cao trong bi canhth trng vn con phat trin mc thp,cung vi nhng tim n rui ro cua h thnglun la nhng thach thc ln i vi Ngnhang Nha nc.

Trong nm 2005, hoan thanh khoach phat trin kinh t - xa hi 5 nm(2001- 2005), Vit Nam phai rt n lc at mc tng trng cao hn nhiu so vinm 2004. ng thi, nm 2005 cung lanm Vit Nam phai khn trng chun bcac iu kin cn thit gia nhp T chcthng mai th gii. Nhng yu cu trn at ra nhng nhim vu phc tap va khokhn cho nganh ngn hang. Song vi aphat trin cua nm 2004, nganh ngn hangse tip tuc tao ra nhng bc chuyn binmanh me hn trong nm 2005, phn ucung cac nganh gop phn tch cc vao tintrnh hi nhp va phat trin kinh t - xa hicua t nc.

recorded in banking technology, thuscreating momentum for banking sector tofurther enhance competitiveness,successfully assume its role as financialintermediary of the economy, thus activelycontributing to the overall achievements ofthe country. The State Bank of Vietnam,however, in 2004 confronted with greatchallenges, namely pressures on risingprice and requirement of achieving higheconomic growth given the under-developed market and potential risks of thesystem.

In 2005, enormous efforts should beexerted to attain much higher economicgrowth rate compared with that of 2004 inorder to achieve the targets set forth inthe five year socio-economicdevelopment plan (2001-2005). Inaddition, in 2005 Vietnam will continue toaccelerate its preparation and readinessfor WTO accession. These, all togetherwill bring about difficult and complextasks for banking sector. However, withthe impetus obtained in 2004, thebanking sector will continue to pushforward its development in 2005, andtogether with other economic sectors toactively contribute to the integration andsocio-economic development of Vietnam.

FOREWORD BY THE GOVERNORFOREWORD BY THE GOVERNOR

LI TA CUA THNG C


Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc Vit Nam

L C THUY

LE DUC THUYGovernor

of the State Bank of Vietnam

ng L c ThyThng c - Governor

ng Trn Minh TunPh Thng c thng trcStanding Deputy Governor

B Nguyn Th Kim PhngPh Thng c

Deputy Governor

ng ng Thanh BnhPh Thng c - Deputy Governor


BAN LANH AO NGN HANG NHA NC

MANAGEMENT BOARD OF THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAMMANAGEMENT BOARD OF THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM

T thang 6/2005, ng Nguyn ng Tin va ngng Thanh Bnh c b nhim gi chc vu PhoThng c Ngn hang Nha nc.

Mr Nguyen Dong Tien and Mr Dang Thanh Binhhave been appointed to Deputy Governor of SBVsince June 2005.

ng Nguyn ng TinPh Thng c - Deputy Governor

ng Phng Khflc KPh Thng c - Deputy Governor

B V Th LinPh Thng c - Deputy Governor


TRU S CHNHTRU S CHNHVA CAC CHI NHANH TNH, THANH PHVA CAC CHI NHANH TNH, THANH PH

Head Office and Provincial Branches

H NI

Qun o Hong Sa

Qun

o T

rn

g Sa

Lo Cai H GiangBc Kn

Bc GiangBc Ninh

Qung Ninh

Cao BngThi Nguyn

Lng SnLai Chu

Tuyn Quang

in Bin

Yn BiSn La

Ph Th

Vnh PhcHfla Bnh

H TyH Nam

Hi PhflngHi DngHng YnThi BnhNam finhNinh Bnh

Thanh HaNgh AnH Tnh

Qung Bnh

Qung Nam

Qung Ngi

Bnh finh

Ph Yn

Khnh HflaLm ng

Ninh Thun

Bnh Thunng Nai

B Rfia - Vng TuBn Tre

Vnh LongTr Vinh

Sc TrngBc Liu

C Mau

Cn Th

Kin Giang

Hu Giang

Tin Giang

Long AnTy Ninh

Bnh DngBnh Phc

c Lcc Nng

Gia Lai

Kon Tum

An Giangng Thp

T.P H CH MINH

Qung TrfiTha Thin - Hu

Nng


5 Ngn hang thng mai nha nc5 State-owned commercial banks (SOCBs)

Ngn hang Chnh sach xa hiThe Social Policy bank

36 Ngn hang thng mai c phn36 Joint stock commercial banks

4 Ngn hang lin doanh4 Joint venture banks

28 chi nhanh ngn hang nc ngoai28 Foreign bank branches

H thng Quy Tn dung nhn dn:- Quy tn dung nhn dn Trung ng va 24 chi nhanh tnh- 905 Quy tn dung c sPeoples Credit Fund system:- Central Peoples Credit Fund and 24 provincialbranches- 905 local credit funds

5 Cng ty Tai chnh(trong o 5 cng ty trc thuc cac Tng Cng ty)

5 Finance companies(of which 5 are affiliates of General Corporations)

9 Cng ty Cho thu tai chnh(trong o 6 cng ty trc thuc ngn hangthng mai Nha nc)9 leasing companies(of which 6 are affiliates of SOCBs)

H THNG H THNG T CHC TN DUNGT CHC TN DUNGCREDIT INSTITUTIONS SYSTEM

H THNG T CHC TN DUNG VIT NAMH THNG T CHC TN DUNG VIT NAMCredit Insitutions System in Vietnam


VU/CUC CHC NNG, NHIM VU

Vu Chnh sachtin t

Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncxy dng va iu hanh chnh sach v tin t qucgia; thc hin chc nng quan ly nha nc trong lnhvc tn dung, thanh toan, thng tin thng k va cancn thanh toan.

Vu Chin lcphat trin ngn hang

Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc xydng chin lc, k hoach phat trin nganh ngn hang phuhp vi muc tiu chin lc phat trin kinh t - xa hi cuaang va Nha nc; giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncquan ly cac hoat ng khoa hoc trong nganh ngn hang.

Vu Hp tac quc t Tham mu cho Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncthc hin nhim vu hp tac quc t va hi nhpquc t thuc pham vi quan ly cua Ngn hang Nhanc; m rng quan h hp tac vi cac t chc taichnh, tin t, tn dung quc t va khu vc.

Vu Cac ngn hangva T chc tn dung phi ngn hang

Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc thchin chc nng quan ly nha nc trong vic thanh lp,hoat ng va phat trin cac t chc tn dung (tr t chctn dung hp tac) va hoat ng ngn hang cua cac tchc khac nhm am bao an toan h thng.

Vu Quan ly ngoai hi

Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncthc hin chc nng quan ly nha nc trong vicvay, tra n nc ngoai cua cac doanh nghip,hoat ng ngoai hi va hoat ng xut, nhpkhu vang theo quy nh cua phap lut.

Vu Cac t chc tn dung hp tac

Tham mu cho Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc thchin quan ly nha nc i vi cac t chc tn dung hp tac.

Vu Tng kim soat Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncthc hin kim soat hoat ng va kim toan ni bi vi cac n v thuc Ngn hang Nha nc.

Vu Tn dung Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc thchin quan ly Nha nc trong lnh vc tn dung ngn hangva iu hanh th trng tin t theo quy nh cua phap lut.

Vu K toan - Tai chnh Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncthc hin quan ly nha nc v k toan, ky thutnghip vu thanh toan, u t xy dng va thc hinquyn ai din chu s hu phn vn cua Nha nctai doanh nghip trong nganh ngn hang; giupThng c ch ao, t chc thc hin cng tac ktoan, quan ly tai chnh, tai san, hoat ng thanh toanva u t xy dng cua Ngn hang Nha nc.

Vu T chc can b Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc,Ban can s ang Ngn hang Nha nc trong cngtac t chc b may va bin ch, quan ly can b,ao tao va tin lng cua Ngn hang Nha nc vacua nganh theo cac quy nh cua phap lut.

Vu Phap ch Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha ncthc hin vic quan ly nha nc bng phap lut trongnganh ngn hang; t chc thc hin cng tac xydng phap lut; ra soat va h thng hoa cac vn banquy pham phap lut; kim tra vn ban quy phamphap lut; t vn phap ly cho Thng c trong victhc hin cac nhim vu, quyn han cua NHNN, phbin, giao duc phap lut, kim tra thc hin phap lut,tng cng phap ch trong nganh ngn hang.

Monetary PolicyDepartment

Advise the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam(SBV) on making and managing national monetarypolicies; on implementing the state management ofcredit, payment, statistics information and balanceof payment.

Banking StrategyDevelopmentDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on developing thebanking development strategy and plan inaccordance with the objectives of the socio-economic development strategy of the Party and theState; Assist the SBV Governor to manage scientificresearch work in the banking industry.

InternationalCooperationDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on implementinginternational integration and cooperation tasks of theSBV; on expanding cooperation in banking andfinance between Vietnam and international andregional credit, financial and monetary institutions.

Foreign ExchangeDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on implementing statemanagement of foreign borrowing and debtservicing of enterprises, foreign exchange andgold import, export activities in accordance withthe law and regulation.

Banks and Non-BanksDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on implementing statemanagement of establishment, operation and developmentof credit institutions (excluding cooperative creditinstitutions) and banking operations of other institutions inorder to ensure the stability of the system.

Credit CooperativesDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on conducting statemanagement of cooperative credit institutions

General ControlDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on controlling theactivities of all entities of the SBV and conductinternal audit of all entities within the headquarters.

Credit Department Advise the SBV Governor on conducting statemanagement of credit operations and managing monetarymarket in accordance with the law and regulation.

Accounting andFinanceDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on conducting statemanagement of accounting, banking payment operations,investment for construction and exercising the owner'srights of the State's capital contribution at the enterprisesin banking industry; Assist the Governor to instruct andorganize the implementation of accounting and tomanage finance, properties and payment operations andinvestment for construction of the SBV.

PersonnelDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor and the Party's CivilAffairs Committee on institutional organization,personnel, employment, salary and training of theSBV and the banking industry in accordance withthe law and regulation

Legal Department Advise the SBV Governor on conducting state legalmanagement of the banking system; conduct thedevelopment of legal documents, appraise, reviewand systemize legal documents; advise theGovernor on legal aspects in implementing thefunctions of the central bank; disseminate, train andexamine the implementation of legal documents inthe banking industry.

DEPARTMENTS FUNCTIONS

S T CHCS T CHCCUA NGN HANG NHA NC VIT NAMCUA NGN HANG NHA NC VIT NAM

Organization Chart of the State Bank of Vietnam

DEPARTMENTS FUNCTIONS

OTHER UNITS FUNCTIONS


Thanh tra Ngn hang

Thc hin thanh tra chuyn nganh v ngn hang vagiup Thng c thc hin nhim vu quyn han thanhtra trong cac lnh vc thuc pham vi quan ly cuaNgn hang Nha nc theo quy nh cua phap lut.

Vn phong Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc tng hp,iu phi hoat ng theo chng trnh, k hoach cng tac;tham mu cho Thng c thc hin chc nng quan ly nhanc i vi cac hoat ng bao ch, vn th lu tr, thi uacua nganh Ngn hang va thc hin cng tac hanh chnh ivi hoat ng tai Tru s chnh Ngn hang Nha nc.

S Giao dch Thc hin mt s nghip vu Ngn hang Trung ng nhnghip vu th trng m, nghip vu tn dung cua Ngnhang Nha nc, lam ai ly cho Kho bac Nha nc; tchc u thu trai phiu, tn phiu; t chc, iu hanh vatham gia th trng ngoai t lin ngn hang; thc hin cacgiao dch vi Kho bac Nha nc, cac t chc tn dunghoat ng tai Vit Nam, cac ngn hang nc ngoai, cact chc tai chnh - tin t quc t; quan ly va kinh doanhngun ngoai hi do Ngn hang Nha nc nm gi, thchin nghip vu quan h ai ly.

Cuc Phat hanh vaKho quy

Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc thchin chc nng quan ly nha nc va chc nng ngnhang trung ng trong lnh vc phat hanh va kho quy.

Cuc Cng ngh tinhoc Ngn hang

Tham mu giup Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc thchin nhim vu quan ly nha nc chuyn nganh v lnh vccng ngh tin hoc trong pham vi toan nganh ngn hang.

Cuc Quan tr T chc thc hin cng tac quan tr, am bao hucn, phuc vu cho cac hoat ng tai tru s chnh vacng tac bao v trong h thng Ngn hang Nha nc.

64 Ngn hang Nhanc chi nhanh tnh,thanh ph

Trc tip thc hin mt s nghip vu ngn hangtrung ng theo s uy quyn cua Thng c va thchin chc nng quan ly Nha nc v tin t va hoatng ngn hang trn a ban tnh, thanh ph trcthuc Trung ng.

64 municipal andprovincial branches

Implement certain operations as authorized by theGovernor and implement state management ofmonetary and banking operations in the provincesand the cities under the central government.

Vn phong ai dintai T.P H Ch Minh

La n v phu thuc, co nhim vu ai din theo suy quyn cua Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc.

RepresentativeOffice in HCMC

The subsidiary of the SBV, which implements therepresentative functions authorized by the Governor.

Thi bao Ngn hang La c quan ngn lun, din an xa hi va la cng cutuyn truyn, ph bin ng li, chu trng cuaang, chnh sach, phap lut cua Nha nc va hoatng cua nganh ngn hang theo Lut Bao ch va quynh cua Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc.

Banking Times The mouthpiece and the newspaper of the bankingsector to disseminate the Party's orientation andguidelines, the State's legislation and policies andoperations of the banking industry in accordancewith the Press Law of the Socialist Republic ofVietnam and regulations of the SBV Governor.

Banking Review The mouthpiece and the magazine to disseminate bankingof theory, science and technology; to disseminate theParty's orientation and guidelines, the State's legislationand policies and scientific and technology achievements ofbanking industry in accordance with the Press Law of theSocialist Republic of Vietnam and the Law on the SBV.

Hoc vin Ngn hang La t chc ao tao va nghin cu khoa hoc v lnhvc ngn hang.

Banking Institute A state training and scientific research organizationin the field of banking.

Trng H Ngn hang T.P H Ch Minh

La trng ai hoc cng lp, t chc ao tao vanghin cu khoa hoc v lnh vc ngn hang.

HCMC BankingUniversity

The public university implementing education,training and research functions in the field ofbanking.

Trung tm thng tintn dung

Thu nhn, phn tch, d bao thng tin tn dung trongnganh ngn hang phuc vu cng tac quan ly, iuhanh cua Thng c Ngn hang Nha nc, cung cpva lam dch vu thng tin v tin t, hoat ng ngnhang cho cac t chc tn dung va t chc khac.

Credit InformationCenter

Collect, analyze, forecast, and provide creditinformation in banking industry to support themanagement of the SBV Governor; to providemonetary and banking operation informationservices to credit and other institutions.

Ban Quan ly cac dan tn dung quc t

Quan ly va thc hin cac d an tn dung quc t do cact chc tai chnh tin t quc t va nc ngoai tai tr maNgn hang Nha nc la c quan quan ly va thc hin.

International CreditProjectManagement Unit

Manage and implement international credit projectsfinanced by international and foreign financial andmonetary institutions, in which the SBV acts as themanagement and implementation body.

CAC N V KHAC CHC NNG, NHIM VU

Tap ch Ngn hang La c quan ngn lun va din an v ly lun nghipvu, khoa hoc, cng ngh ngn hang; tuyn truyn phbin ng li chu trng cua ang, chnh sach vaphap lut cua Nha nc va nhng thanh tu v khoahoc, cng ngh cua nganh ngn hang theo quy nhcua Lut Bao ch va Lut Ngn hang Nha nc.

VU/ CUC CHC NNG, NHIM VU

BankingSupervision

Conduct professional supervision and advise the SBVGovernor on implementing the rights and obligations ofsupervision in the areas subject to the management ofSBV in accordance the law and regulation.

SBV Office Advise and assist the SBV Governor in coordinatingactivities in line with working schedule and plan;advise the Governor on conducting state managementof press, archive and emulation activities of thebanking industry and implement administrative worksfor the operations of the SBV Headquarter.

Banking OperationCenter

Implement a number of central bank operations,namely open market operations; credit operations ofSBV, acting as agent for State Treasury; Organizeand conduct bids of bills and bonds; Organize,manage and participate in foreign exchange inter-bank market; Conduct transactions with StateTreasury, credit institutions operating in Vietnam,foreign banks, international financial and monetaryinstitutions; Manage and conduct business on foreignexchange resources hold by the SBV, implementcorrespondent agent operations.

Issue and VaultDepartment

Advise the SBV Governor on implementing statemanagement and central bank functions on issue andvault operations

BankingInformationTechnology Center

Advise the SBV Governor on implementing thestate management of information technology in thebanking industry.

AdministrationDepartment

Conduct and organize logistic services for theoperations of the SBV's headquarters; providesecurity services within the SBV system;


In 2004, the world economicenvironment experienced a fairlycomplicated developments, such asprices of some commodities, particularlypetroleum exhibited a prolonged and highrise, earthquake and tsunami calamitiescaused severe losses of lives and properties,droughts occurred in many countries. Theworld economy, however continued torecover with the highest growth rate since theoutbreak of financial and monetary crisis in1997. Growth of the world economy,particularly of some major partners favoredexport performance of Vietnam. The sharpdepreciation of US dollar against majorcurrencies and the fairly stable US interestrates maintained by Federal Reserve System(Fed) in the first half of 2004 inducedsomewhat impacts to the countrys foreigncurrency interest rate and exchange ratedevelopments. The political uncertaintiesoccurred elsewhere in the world, unpredictedmovements of fuel and raw material prices ininternational markets together with thecalamities and bird flu found in a number ofprovinces caused to the surge in ConsumerPrice Index (CPI). The Vietnams economy,however still recorded optimist achievements,laying a foundation for the success of fiveyear socio-economic development plan.

KINH T TH GII VA TRONG NCGLOBAL AND DOMESTIC ECONOMIES

Nm 2004 tnh hnh kinh t thgii din bin phc tap, gia camt s mt hang nht la giadu tng cao va keo dai, nhng tham hoav ng t, song thn gy thit hai nghimtrong v ngi va cua, han han xay ra nhiu nc trn th gii. Tuy nhin, kinh tth gii vn tip tuc hi phuc vi tc tngtrng cao nht k t sau cuc khunghoang tai chnh tin t mt s khu vcnm 1997. Tng trng kinh t th gii noichung, nht la tng trng kinh t cua mts i tac ln cua Vit nam a tao thun licho hoat ng xut khu. Xu hng giamgia manh cua ng la My so vi hu htcac ng tin chu cht khac va vic Cuc Dtr lin bang My duy tr n nh lai suttrong na u nm 2004 co tac ng nhtnh n din bin ty gia va lai sut ngoai ttrong nc. Tnh trang bt n v chnh trtrn th gii, bin ng kho lng cua gianguyn nhin liu trn th trng quc t,thin tai, dch cum gia cm xay ra nhiua phng trong nc a tac ng khincho ch s gia tiu dung tng cao. Song,nn kinh t Vit Nam vn at kt qua khaquan, tao nn tang cho vic thc hin thanhcng k hoach phat trin kinh t - xa hi5 nm 2001-2005.

KINH T TH GII VA TRONG NC


KINH T TH GII VA KHUKINH T TH GII VA KHUVC VC

c im ni bt nht cua kinh t thgii va khu vc nm 2004 la s gia tng tbin, keo dai cua gia du va tc tngtrng at 3,8% - mc tng cao nht k tsau khung hoang tai chnh - tin t khu vc.Song ty l lam phat bnh qun nm 2004khoang 3%, tng ng nm 2003. Tc tng trng thng mai th gii nm 2004at 8,5% - mc tng cao nht trong vong 4nm tr lai y. Thng mai th gii tngtrng manh la ng lc tch cc, giup nnkinh t toan cu at mc tng trng cao.Sau 3 nm lin tip giam manh t mc 1.400ty USD nm 2000 xung con 560 ty USDnm 2003, dong vn u t nc ngoai trntoan th gii a dn phuc hi trong nm2004. c bit, dong vn u t nc ngoaia co s chuyn hng ro rt sang khu vcdch vu: ty trong dch vu trong c cu vnu t nc ngoai a tng ln ti 60% vatrong tng lai ty l nay se con tip tuc giatng.

Kinh t My vn tip tuc ng u thgii vi GDP at tr gia 11.668 nghn ty USD.Tc tng GDP cua My nm 2004 at4,4% - mc tng trng cao nht trong cacnn kinh t tin tin trn th gii. Mc duCuc D tr lin bang My co cam kt v vicduy tr n nh gia ca nhng ty l lam phat My a lin tuc gia tng. Nht la trong quyI/2004, ch s gia tiu dung a tng bnhqun 5,1%/nm, cao gp 2,5 ln so vi mctng bnh qun 1,9%/nm cua ca nm 2003.Theo bao cao cua B Lao ng My, trongthang 10/2004, gia ban bun My a tng1,7% chu yu do chi ph nng lng va thc

GLOBAL AND DOMESTICGLOBAL AND DOMESTICECONOMIESECONOMIES

In 2004, the abrupt and prolongedpickup of oil price and the global economicgrowth rate of 3.8%, the highest level sincethe regional financial-monetary crisisregarded as the striking features of theworld and regional economies. The averageinflation rate maintained around 3%,equaled to that of 2003. The world tradeachieved the growth of 8.5% in 2004, a 4-year high level. The robust development inthe world trade created positive impetus,contributing to the high growth of the worldeconomy. The worldwide foreign investmentin 2004 presented a recovery after threeconsecutive years of sharp reduction fromUSD 1,400 billion in 2000 to USD 560 billionin 2003. It is noted that a shift to servicesector was evidenced in foreign investmentflows: the proportion of services in foreigninvestment structure reached 60% andincreasing tendency seemed to continue inthe future.

The US Economy remained thelargest economy in the world with GDPtotaled USD 11,668 trillion, its annualgrowth rate in 2004 was 4.4%, the highestof all advanced countries. Despite thecommitment of Fed to maintain pricestabilization, the persistent rising inflationwas still observed in US, particularly theaverage CPI of the first quarter jumped to5.1% p.a, 2.5 times higher compared withthat of 1.9% p.a for the whole year 2003.According to the report released by theLabor Department of USA, the wholesaleprice in October 2004 increased by 1.7%,the 15-year high rate, mainly attributed tothe pickup in the power and foodstuffprices. The US inflation rate in 2004,however was still under the control of Fed

GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC ECONOMIES

phm tng manh, y la mc tng cao nhttrong gn 15 nm qua. Nhn chung, ty l lamphat nm 2004 My vn trong tm kimsoat cua Cuc D tr lin bang My vi mctng bnh qun 2,7%/nm. Ty l tht nghipbnh qun nm 2004 c cai thin hn sovi nm 2003 nhng vn mc cao 5,5%.Thach thc ln nht i vi nn kinh t Myvn la mc thm hut kep nng n: thm hutcan cn vang lai nm 2004 tng ng5,4% GDP (khoang 617,7 ty USD), thm hutngn sach nm tai chnh cung mc cao3,7% GDP (422 ty USD).

Kinh t Nht Ban: Cho du tc hiphuc kinh t cui nm chng lai ang k dogiam sut san lng cng nghip va xutkhu, nhng nhn chung trong nm 2004kinh t Nht Ban a phuc hi kha kha quansau 1 thp nin yu kem. Tc tng GDPbnh qun nm 2004 la 2,6% va ty l lamphat vn mc rt thp -0,1%. Nh vy sphuc hi cua nn kinh t Nht Ban chahoan toan vng chc do Nht Ban vn phaitip tuc chu nhng sc ep giam phat nhtnh va kha nng canh tranh v tin t cuang Yn so vi USD a giam sut ang k.Mc du vy, d tr ngoai hi cua Nht Banvn lin tuc ng u th gii.

Kinh t khu vc ng Euro tng ikha quan, tng trng kinh t bnh qun nm2004 at 1,7%, cao gp hn 3 ln so vimc tng 0,5% cua nm 2003. Ty l lamphat bnh qun 2,1%/nm cao hn mc trn2% cua Ngn hang Trung ng Chu u vabng mc lam phat trong nm 2003. Mc du,tc tng trng kinh t kha quan nh vynhng tnh trang cng n vic lam trong khuvc vn cha cai thin ang k, ty l thtnghip bnh qun trong toan khu vc vn

with average rate of 2.7% p.a. Theunemployment rate was still as high as5.5%, though it was enhanced incomparison with that of 2003. Theenormous twin deficits continued to be thebiggest challenges for the US economy:Current account deficit was about USD617.7 billion, equivalent to 5.4% of GDP,budget deficit was relatively high of USD422 billion, accounting for 3.7% of GDP.

The Japanese Economy stillrecorded a relatively optimistic recovery in2004 after a decade of weakening, thoughthe considerable slowdown of recoveryoccurred at the end of year 2004 due to thereduction in industrial production andexport. Japan experienced a growth at 2.6%and very low inflation rate at -0.1%. Giventhe persistent deflationary pressures andthe falling competitive advantage of the Yenagainst USD, the sustainability of Japaneconomys recovery was a question. TheJapans international reserve, however wasstill biggest in the world.

The Euro Zones economicdevelopment in 2004 was relativelyoptimistic with annual average growth of1.7%, 3 times higher than that of 0.5% in2003. The annual average inflation ratereached 2.1%, higher than the ceiling rateof 2% set by the European Central Bank(ECB) and equaled to that of 2003. Despitesuch economic growth, employmentcondition in the region was not significantlyimproved with average region-wideunemployment rate of approximately 9%,much higher compared with that of USAand Japan.

The Asia Economy experienced arelatively optimistic growth of 7.6% asestimated by the IMF and the WB. Highgrowth in export sector together with strong




mc xp x 9%/nm, cao hn hn so vi My va Nht Ban.

Kinh t Chu A: Theo anh gia cuaQuy tin t quc t va Ngn hang Th gii,kinh t Chu A nm 2004 a tng trngtng i kha quan mc bnh qun 7,6%.Nguyn nhn chu yu la do xut khu tngtrng nhanh va tiu thu trong nc tip tucgi xu th manh. Trung Quc vn la qucgia co tc tng trng kinh t nhanh nhtkhu vc va cung nh th gii vi mc tngGDP 9,5%. Xinhgapo ng th hai trong khuvc vi mc tng 8,4%. Ty l lam phat bnhqun toan khu vc c duy tr trong tmkim soat mc 3%. Nm 2004, Chu Atip tuc dn u cac nc ang phat trin vthu hut vn u t trc tip nc ngoai vatr thanh a ban u t thanh cng cua cacnha u t quc t (ng u v thu hut ut trc tip nc ngoai la Trung Quc attrn 60 ty USD).

Tnh hnh lai sut va ty gia:Tnh hnh lai sut va ty gia:Din bin lai sut: Sau khoang 1 nm

(t 25/6/2003 - 30/6/2004) duy tr lai sut nhhng lin ngn hang mc thp ky luc1%/nm trong vong 46 nm, Cuc D tr linbang My a bt u giai oan tng lai sutlin tip 5 ln trong na cui nm 2004 (miln tng 0,25%/nm) a mc lai sut nhhng lin ngn hang My ln 2,25%/nmvao ngay 14/12/2004. Ly do chnh khin CucD tr lin bang My tng lai sut, tht chtchnh sach tin t la do nn kinh t My nm2004 a phuc hi manh, va nguy c lam phatgia tng. S gia tng gia du va cac nguynvt liu khac trn th trng th gii, cung ving USD mt gia manh so vi cac ng tin

domestic consumption regarded as themain factors for such high growth. Chineseeconomy obtained the highest growth rateof 9.5% in the world, followed by Singaporewith growth rate of 8.4%, ranked second inthe region in terms of growth rate. Theaverage inflation rate of the region wasmaintained at around 3%. In 2004, the Asiacontinued to take the lead of all developingcountries in terms of attracting foreign directinvestment (FDI) and became a successfuldestination for investment of theinternational investors (China was theleading country in FDI absorption of aboveUSD 60 billion).

Movements of interest rateMovements of interest rateand exchange rateand exchange rate

Interest rate developments: Aftermaintaining the federal funds rate at a 46-year low level of 1% p.a for one year (fromJune 25,2003 to June 30,2004), Fed beganraising its rate by 5 consecutive times in thesecond half of 2004 (each time increasedby 0.25% p.a), reaching 2.25% p.a onDecember 14, 2004. Strong economicrecovery in 2004 parallel with potential riskof rising inflation was a driving forceinducing Fed to raise its interest rate andtighten monetary policy. The surge in oiland other raw material prices in the worldmarket together with a sharp depreciation ofUS dollar against major currenciesincreased inflationary pressure on the USeconomy. Thus, for the first time in four anda half years (since 16 May 2000) the Fedsguiding rate was raised to the level higherthan that of ECB. In 2004, the ECB decidedto keep its refinancing rate unchanged at2% p.a in order to support the economicgrowth in the region, the most importantobjective of the year. The Bank of Japan



khac a lam tng sc ep lam phat trong nnkinh t My. Nh vy, ln u tin sau 4 nmri (k t ngay 16/5/2000), lai sut nhhng cua Cuc D tr lin bang My lai tngln mc cao hn lai sut nh hng cuaNgn hang Trung ng Chu u. Nm 2004,Ngn hang Trung ng Chu u vn duy trlai sut tai cp vn mc 2%/nm nhm htr thuc y tng trng kinh t trong khu vcc coi la muc tiu trong tm hang u cuanm. Thang 12/2004, Ngn hang Trung ngNht Ban a khng nh lai quyt tm khngt bo chnh sach tin t siu ni long vi laisut 0% c duy tr lin tuc t thang 3/2000.Mc du nn kinh t Nht Ban a khi sc vitc tng trng GDP kha cao so vi cacnm trc, nhng Ngn hang Trung ngNht Ban ch tng lai sut khi ch s gia tiudung (a loai tr thc phm ti sng) tngln mc 0% hoc cao hn.

Do tac ng cua vic Cuc D tr linbang My tng lai sut, cac mc lai sutLIBOR, SIBOR trn th trng quc t cung coxu hng gia tng. Tuy nhin, cac quyt nhtng lai sut cua Cuc D tr lin bang Mykhng gy tac ng nhiu n chnh sach laisut cua hu ht Ngn hang Trung ng cacnc Chu A, ngoai tr nhng nc co ngni t c gn c nh vao ng USD nhTrung Quc, Hng Kng, Malaixia... Ln utin trong 9 nm qua, vao Quy IV/2004 TrungQuc a tng ng loat lai sut ni t vangoai t cung nh a tng d tr bt buc ivi ca tin gi ni va ngoai t. Vic My tnglai sut con h tr giup ng USD han chmt gia so vi mt s ng tin Chu A, quao h tr cho hoat ng xut khu - mt nglc phat trin kinh t quan trong cua cac ncChu A, trong o co Vit Nam.

(BOJ) in December 2004 reaffirmed itsdetermination in pursuing super-loosingmonetary policy with interest rate of 0%,which was constantly maintained sinceMarch 2000. Although Japanese economyexperienced a recovery with GDP growthrate relatively higher against previous years,the BOJ will only raise the interest rate asCPI lifts to 0% or above (excludinguncooked foodstuff).

In international markets, LIBOR andSIBOR also observed rising trend due tothe impact of raising interest rate by Fed.The Feds decision on raising its rate onlyslightly effected interest rate policies ofalmost all central banks in Asia region,except countries with their currenciespegged to the US dollar, namely China,Hong Kong, Malaysia and so forth. Inquarter IV, 2004 for the first time since 9years China concurrently raised foreign anddomestic interest rates and reserverequirements for both foreign and domesticdeposits. The raising interest rate by UScontributed to constrain the depreciation ofUS dollar against currencies of some Asiacountries, thus promoting exportperformance- one important impetus foreconomic development of Asia countries,including Vietnam.

Movements in Exchange rates andgold price: In 2004, the outstanding featureof exchange rate movements ininternational market was the fluctuation ofUS dollar with an underlying trend of drasticdepreciation against most of majorcurrencies and many currencies of Asiacountries. The sharp depreciation of USdollar was attributed to the implementationof weak US dollar policy by Fed aiming atthe budget deficit reduction and contractionof successively rising current account deficitof the US. In addition, other factors



Din bin ty gia va gia vang: imni bt cua tnh hnh ty gia hi oai trn thtrng quc t trong nm 2004 la gia ngUSD co nhiu bin ng nhng xu hngchu ao vn la tip tuc giam gia manh so vihu ht cac ng tin chu cht khac va a scac ng tin Chu A. ng USD mt giamanh do Cuc D tr lin bang My chu trngthc hin chnh sach ng la yu nhmgiam thm hut ngn sach va thm hut cancn vang lai cua My lin tip gia tng. Ngoaira, mt s nhn t khac cung co tac ngn vic la chon chnh sach cua Cuc D trlin bang My nh ty l tit kim My con rtthp, lng u t trc tip nc ngoai vaoMy lin tuc giam sut va vai tro quc t cuang Euro cang ngay cang tng ln. Giavang th gii lai din bin theo chiu ngclai vi ng USD, a co thi im (trongthang 12/2004) tng ln mc cao nht(455,75 USD/ounce) trong vong 16 nm qua.

KINH T VIT NAMKINH T VIT NAMTrong nm 2004, nn kinh t Vit Nam

din ra trong bi canh tnh hnh quc t vatrong nc khng my thun li. Mc du kinht th gii tng trng kha tao thun li chotng trng xut khu Vit Nam, song nhngbin ng kho lng v chnh tr, gia canguyn, nhin vt liu (st thep, xng du...)co nhng tac ng tiu cc n hoat ngsan xut kinh doanh trong nc. trongnc, dch cum gia cm xay ra hu ht cactnh thanh ph, han han, ret m keo dai mt s tnh tac ng y gia lng thc, thcphm tng cao; gia ca trong nc va gianhp khu mt s mt hang nguyn nhinliu chu yu nh st thep, phn bon, nhau co xu hng gia tng khin ch s gia

effecting the policy choice of Fed includedlow saving rate in US, constant decrease inFDI inflows and rising role of the Euro. Thereversed trend against US dollarmovements was observed in gold price,there was such a time (in December, 2004)gold price reached a 16-year high level(455.75 US dollar/ounce).

VIETNAMESE ECONOMYVIETNAMESE ECONOMY

In 2004, the Vietnams economicoperations took place in the context of fairlyunfavorable conditions, both externally anddomestically. The moderate growth of theworld economy favored export performanceof Vietnam, however unpredicted politicalunrest and uncertainties in fuel and rawmaterial prices (steel and iron, petroleumand so forth) adversely effected domesticproduction and business operations.Domestically, bird flu occurred in almost allprovinces and cities, droughts andprolonged and piercing cold elsewhere inthe country caused the surge in food andfoodstuff prices: rising trend of bothdomestic prices and prices of some majorimported fuel and raw material namely steeland iron, fertilizer and plastic...broughtabout an increase of CPI by 9.5%, thehighest level since 1995. Despite the pooroperation of state owned enterprises(SOEs), slow progress of privatization,sluggish utilization of investment capital fordevelopment and prolonged deploymentperiod occurred in many projects....theVietnamese economy in 2004 still recordedGDP growth rate of 7.69%, higher than therate of 7.34% in 2003, with GDP growthrate of proceeding quarter higher than thatof previous one.



tiu dung tng 9,5%, mc cao nht k tnm 1995 tr lai y; hoat ng cua nhiudoanh nghip Nha nc con yu kem, tintrnh c phn hoa con chm, cng tac trinkhai thc hin vn u t phat trin vnthp, nhiu cng trnh con keo dai thi gianthi cng. Mc du vy, trong nm 2004 nnkinh t vn at c mc tng trng GDP7,69%, cao hn mc tng 7,34% cua nm2003, va tc tng trng GDP quy sautng cao hn quy trc.

V chuyn dch c cu kinh t: Cungvi tc tng trng cao, cht lng tngtrng cung c cai thin, c cu kinh t cobc chuyn bin tch cc. Ty trong GDPkhu vc nng - lm - thuy san giam, ty trongkhu vc cng nghip tng, ty trong khu vcdch vu co xu hng phuc hi sau 3 nm lintuc giam sut. Khu vc kinh t ngoai qucdoanh tip tuc phat trin nng ng, onggop nht nh vao tng trng GDP. Tytrong cng nghip va xy dng trong GDPat 40,09%, dch vu 38,15%, nng lm thuysan 21,76% . y la kt qua cua qua trnhiu chnh, chuyn dch lin tuc c cu ut cua nm 2004 va nhng nm trc y atng bc lam thay i c cu kinh t, duy trva n nh c cu kinh t dn theo hngphat trin bn vng trong nm 2004. Tuynhin, s chuyn dch c cu trong ni bcac nganh nng nghip, dch vu con chm.Ty trong nganh trng trot trong tng gia trsan xut nng nghip vn cao chim80,11%. Hu ht cac nganh dch vu quantrong co kha nng tao nhiu gia tr gia tngvn chim ty l nho trong GDP. Xu hngnay se gy bt li cho tng trng kinh t,nht la trong bi canh Vit Nam chu nghi nhp kinh t.

The transformation of economicstructure: Accompanying with high growthrate, the quality of growth was alsoenhanced with positive shift in economicstructure. The GDP share of agriculture-forestry-fishery sector exhibited a fall whileshare of industry sector was expanding andservice sector recorded a recovery after 3consecutive years of narrowing. Theongoing dynamic development of privateeconomic sector somewhat contributed toGDP growth. Industry-construction, serviceand agriculture-forestry-fishery represented40.09%, 38.15% and 21.76% of GDP,respectively. The continuous adjustmentand shift in investment structure in 2004and the years before progressively changedeconomic structure, maintained andstabilized economic structure graduallytoward the sustainable development in 2004and years ahead. However, agriculture andservice underwent a slow structuraltransformation process. The share ofcultivation in total production value of


San xut va dch vuSan xut va dch vu

San xut nng lm - nghip va thuysan1: Nm 2004, GDP cua khu vc nnglm thuy san tng 3,5%, thp hn so vimc 3,62% cua nm 2003. Nguyn nhnchu yu la do san xut nng-lm nghip vathuy san chu anh hng cua dch cum giacm, thin tai xay ra nhiu ni va gia nguynvt liu u vao tng... Tnh theo gia hinhanh, ty trong khu vc nng- lm va thuysan trong GDP giam nhe t 22,54% cua nm2003 xung con 21,76% nm 2004. Tnhtheo gia tr san xut, nng-lm nghip va

1 S liu cua nm 2003 c iu chnh theo s liu cng bchnh thc cua Tng cuc Thng k

GDP at current prices GDP at constant prices of 1994

Growth rate/VND trillion

GDP growth rate

7.34%

TNG TRNG GDP NM 1995 - 2004TNG TRNG GDP NM 1995 - 2004GDP Growth During 1995 - 2004



thuy san tng 5,4% trong o nng nghiptng 4,2%, lm nghip tng 0,9%, thuy santng 11,2% (cung ky tng ng la 5,5%;4,5%; 1,1%; 10,9%). Tuy nhin, thc hincac chnh sach thay i c cu u t, ccu mua vu, c cu cy trng vt nui, khiphuc an gia suc gia cm do dch cum, apdung tin b ky thut trong san xut nngnghip, nhiu a phng tip tuc chuyn ttrng lua nng sut thp sang nui trngthuy san va trng cy cng nghip, cy nqua, trng rng em lai hiu qua hn. Mcdu ty trong nng nghip trong GDP giamnhng gia tr san xut nng nghip vn tngkha v s tuyt i.

Cng nghip va xy dng: So vicung ky nm 2003, khu vc cng nghip vaxy dng lin tuc tng trng cao ca v tc va ty trong trong GDP. Song tc tngtrng cua ca nm 2004 at 10,2%, giamnhe so vi nm 2003 (10,48%), trong o mts nganh tng trng cao nh: cng nghipkhai khoang, dt may, gach xy dng, lprap t xe may. GDP trong khu vc cngnghip tng 10,53%, y la mc tng trngcao nht trong cac khu vc cua nn kinh t.Cng nghip tng cao chu yu khu vckinh t ngoai quc doanh va khu vc co vnu t nc ngoai. Ty trong cng nghip vaxy dng trong GDP tnh theo gia hin hanhtip tuc tng va chim 40,09%. San xutcng nghip nm 2004 vn duy tr c mctng trng cao do nhu cu trong nc vsan phm cng nghip tng ln, cht lngsan phm c nng cao, xut khu sanphm cng nghip tng manh, ong gopkhoang 80% vao mc tng trng xut khu.Nhiu doanh nghip tip tuc tng u t chosan xut nhm i mi thit b, cng ngh,

agriculture sector was still high,representing 80.11%. Most of the major andpotentially value added creating servicesstill accounted for a modest part of GDP.This tendency will be harmful to economicgrowth, particularly in the context of pro-active international economic integration ofVietnam.

Production and serviceProduction and service

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery1:In 2004, GDP growth of this sectorincreased by 3.5%, lower than the rate of3.62% in 2003, mainly attributed to adverseimpacts of avian flu, widespread naturaldisasters and increase in input prices....Thissector slightly slowed its contribution toGDP at current price to 21.76% in 2004from 22.54% in 2003. In terms of productionvalue, the agriculture, forestry and fisherysector grew by 5.4%, separately, agricultureincreased by 4.2%, forestry by 0.9% andfishery by 11.2% ( in 2003, correspondingfigures were 5.5%, 4.5%, 1.1%, 10.9%).The effectiveness of agriculture productionwas enhanced in 2004 thanks to changes ininvestment, crop and breed structures,restoration of cattle and poultry flocks lostby flu epidemics, technology application inagriculture production, and shift from lowproductivity rice plantation into aquaticproduction and cultivation of industrial, fruitcrops and forest plantation...The GDP shareof agriculture though reduced in relativeterm but increased notably in absolute term.

Industry and Construction: In termsof its growth and contribution to GDP, theindustry and construction sector in 2004continuously obtained the higher rates

1 The 2003 were adjusted to the General Statistics Officesofficial data.



giam gia thanh san phm va nng cao sccanh tranh cua san phm th trng trongnc cung nh th trng xut khu. Ngoaira, cac giai phap cua Chnh phu va cac b,nganh v kim ch tc tng gia, quan lytt lu thng hang hoa a tao iu kin chocng nghip phat trin.

Dch vu: Nm 2004 GDP cua khu vcthng mai va dch vu at mc tng trng7,47%, trong o: vn chuyn khach ngst tng 7,6%, ng b tng 8,6%, hangkhng tng 35,5%... Tng mc ban le hanghoa va dch vu tiu dung xa hi tng 20,6%,trong o khu vc kinh t nha nc tng14,5%, khu vc kinh t tp th giam 10%,khu vc ca th tng 25,88%, khu vc kinh tt nhn tng 13% va khu vc co vn u tnc ngoai tng 7,4%. Cung nh nhng nmtrc, s tng trng cua khu vc dch vutrong nm 2004 lun at mc thp vaong gop cua khu vc nay vao GDP con hanch. Do vy, khu vc thng mai, dch vucn co nhng bc chuyn bin manh hn tao nhng iu kin thun li cho tngtrng kinh t.

Xut, nhp khu hang hoa Xut, nhp khu hang hoa

Nm 2004, tng kim ngach xut, nhpkhu at 58,4 ty USD, tng 28,6% so vinm 2003, phan anh qui m thng maiquc t cua Vit Nam ngay cang c mrng.

V xut khu: Tng kim ngach xutkhu hang hoa nm 2004 at 26,5 ty USD(gia FOB), tng 31,5% so vi nm 2003.Xut khu tng cao la do s tng trngkinh t cua mt s khu vc la i tac ln cua

compared with the same period of 2003.However, the annual growth rate of thissector in 2004 slightly reduced to 10.2%from 10.48% in 2003. High growth rateswere observed in some industries, namelymining, garment, construction brick,motorbike and automobile assembling.Industry reached a growth rate of 10.53 %,the highest of all sectors in the economy,this was mainly attributed to the high growthof private and foreign invested sectors. Thecontribution of industry and construction toGDP at current price, continued to rise,accounting for 40.09%. In 2004, industrialproduction still maintained its high growth,thanks to an increasing domestic demand ofindustrial products, an enhanced productquality and a surge in export of industrialproducts, contributing about 80% to exportgrowth. Many enterprises continued toincrease their investment for production,aiming at renovation of technology,reduction in product prices andenhancement of product competitiveness inboth domestic and export markets. Inaddition, the industrial development wasalso facilitated by measures taken by thegovernment and ministries to constrain therising rate of prices and well managecirculation of commodities.

Services: In 2004 GDP of the tradeand service sector grew by 7.47%, of whichrailway transportation was up by 7.6%, roadtransportation by 8.6%, airlines by 35.5%etc. Total retailed sale value for socialconsumption of goods and services was upby 20.6% of which the public sector up by14.5%, collective sector down by 10%,household sector up by 25.88%, privatesector up by 13% and foreign investedsector up by 7.4%. Like previous years, theservice sectors growth in 2004 remainedslow with limited contribution to GDP. Therefore, more radical transformation for the



ANNUAL REPORT 2OO4State Bank of Vietnam

Vit Nam hi phuc so vi nm 2003. Bncanh o Chnh phu cung a tch cc ch aocac b, nganh co lin quan thc hin cacbin phap y manh xut khu, khuynkhch cac doanh nghip tm kim th trngmi.

V c cu hang xut khu: Hu htkim ngach xut khu mt s mt hang chulc tng manh nh: du th at 5,67 ty USD,tng 48,4% so vi nm 2003 do c li thv gia (gia tng 30,5%); dt may at 4,38 tyUSD, tng 19,0%; hang hai san at 2,4 tyUSD, tng 9,1%; giay dep cac loai at 2,69ty USD, tng 19,0%. Ch tnh ring 4 mthang chu lc nay a chim 57,1% trong tngkim ngach xut khu cua ca nc. Ngoai ra,mt s mt hang truyn thng nh cao su,gao mc du lng xut khu tng nhe nhnggia tng manh nn kim ngach xut khu cuanhng mt hang nay tng. Ring mt hang g nm nay tng rt manh, at 1,14 tyUSD, tng 87,1% so vi cung ky nm ngoai.

V c cu th trng xut khu: Kimngach xut khu hang hoa vao cac khi thtrng EU, ASEAN, My, Nht Ban, TrungQuc u tng. C cu th trng nm nayco nhiu thay i, nu nh nm 2003 mctng kim ngach xut khu vao th trng Myla 60,6% th nm 2004 ch con 26,8%, hanghoa xut khu vn tp trung vao th trngASEAN (tng 31,2%) va Trung Quc (tng98,4%). Mc du vy, th trng My vnchim vn ty trong cao nht 18,8% trongtng kim ngach xut khu, tip n la EUchim 18,1%, ASEAN chim 14,6%, TrungQuc chim 14,1%, Nht Ban chim 13,2%.iu nay chng to vic ky kt Hip nhThng mai Vit- My, thc hin ct giamthu theo l trnh gia nhp AFTA, ky kt cac

trade and service sector is needed tofacilitate economic growth.

Goods import and export Goods import and export

Total foreign trade turnover in 2004stood at USD 58.4 billion, up by 28.6%comparing to 2003, reflecting anincreasingly expanded foreign trade ofVietnam.

Export: Total export turnover in 2004accounted for USD 26.5 billion (by FOBterms), up by 31.5% comparing to 2003.Such a high peak in export is attributable tothe economic growth and recovery of anumber of Vietnams major export marketscomparing to 2003 and its noteworthy tomention the active leadership by theVietnamese Government over the relevantministries and agencies to promote exportand explore new markets.

Structure of exported products:Trade volume of most key exportedproducts soared up, such as crude oilturnover of USD 5.67 billion, up by 48.4%comparing to 2003 thanks to a favorableprice (up by 30.5%), and textile turnover ofUSD 4.38 billion, up by 19.0%, seafoodturnover of USD 2.4 billion, up by 9.1%,footwear turnover of USD 2.69 billion, up by19.0%. Four above-mentioned key exportedproducts account for 57.1% of total exportturnover. Besides, though quantity of suchtraditional goods as rubber, rice increasedslightly, their price soared up, hence leadingto a strong increase in their export turnover.Wooden furniture is noted this year for itsstrong growth to USD 1.14 billion, up by87.1% comparing to that of last year.

Structure of export market: Exportturnover to EU, ASEAN, U.S., Japan andChina all increased. However, the

25

composition of export market this yearexperienced broad changes: Export growthrate to the U.S. market in 2003 was 60.6%,and down to 26.8% in 2004. Larger portionof most goods were exported to ASEAN (upby 31.2%) and China (up by 98.4%).Nevertheless, the U.S. continues being thelargest export market for Vietnam,accounting for 18.8% of total exportturnover, seconded by EU with 18.1% andfollowed by ASEAN 14.6%, China 14.1%and Japan 13.2%.That reflects a positiveimpact on export by the U.S. VietnamBilateral Trade Agreement, AFTA Tariff


hip nh EU va cac hip nh song phngkhac tip tuc co nhiu thun li cho victng xut khu.

Gop phn vao mc tng trng xutkhu phai k n hoat ng xut khu cuacac doanh nghip co vn u t trc tipnc ngoai at 8.816 triu USD, tng 39,1%so vi nm 2003 va chim 33,2% trong tngkim ngach xut khu (nm 2003 chim31,4%).

V nhp khu: Do tnh trang bt n vchnh tr trn th gii, tnh trang khung b

XUT NHP KHU HANG HOA CUA VIT NAM NM 2004 THEO I TACXUT NHP KHU HANG HOA CUA VIT NAM NM 2004 THEO I TAC

n v: triu USD

Khi/nc

Khi EU

Khi ASEAN

My

Nht Ban

Trung Quc

Cac nc khac

Tng kim ngach ca nc

Tr gia

4.791

3.874

4.992

3.502

3.735

5.609

26.503

Tng trng (%)

24,4

31,2

26,8

20,4

98,4

21,5

31,5

Tr gia

2.581

7.765

1.127

3.552

4.456

12.472

31.953

Tng trng (%)

4,2

30,5

-1,4

19,1

42,0

30,4

26,5

Xut khu Nhp khu

Ngun s liu : Tng cuc Hai quan.S liu nm 2003 c iu chnh theo s liu cng bchnh thc cua Tng cuc Thng k thang 4/2005.


ngay cang gia tng khin cho gia trn thtrng quc t co nhiu bin ng theochiu hng tng. Nm 2004, mt s mthang nhp khu chu lc cua Vit Nam nhnguyn, nhin vt liu phuc vu cho san xuttrong nc tng cao so vi nm 2003. Ktqua la, tng kim ngach nhp khu nm 2004at 31,9 ty USD, tng 26,5% so vi nm2003. Trong o, nhp khu mt hang vai lnti 1,92 ty USD, tng 41,1% so vi nm2003; nguyn phu liu dt may da at 2,25ty USD tng 10,8%, cht deo nguyn liuat 1,19 ty USD, tng 43,7%; mt hang xngdu cac loai at 3,57 ty USD, tng 46,5%;

Reduction Roadmap, various agreementsbetween EU - Vietnam and other bilateralagreements.

A significant contribution to exportgrowth was exports by foreign-investedenterprises which accounted for USD 8.816billion, up by 39.1% against 2003 andaccounted for 33.2% of total export volume(31.4% in 2003).

Import: International political unrestand widespread terrorism led to anincreasingly volatile prices. In 2004, price of


VIETNAMESE GOODS EXPORT - IMPORT IN 2004 BY MARKETVIETNAMESE GOODS EXPORT - IMPORT IN 2004 BY MARKET

(In USD million)

Zone/ country

EU

ASEAN

United States

Japan

China

Other countries

Total turnover of Vietnam

Export Import

Souce of data : General Department for Customs.Data of 2003 has been adjusted upon the official dataannounced by the General Statistics Office as of April 2005


Value

4,791

3,874

4,992

3,502

3,735

5,609

26,503

Growth rate

24.4

31.2

26.8

20.4

98.4

21.5

31.5

Value

2,581

7,765

1,127

3,552

4,456

12,472

31,953

Growth rate

4.2

30.5

- 1.4

19.1

42.0

30.4

26.5



phn bon cac loai at 823 triu USD, tng30,4%; may vi tnh va linh kin at 912 triuUSD, tng 103%.

Nhp khu cua khu vc co vn u tnc ngoai at 11 ty USD, tng 25,8% so vicung ky nm ngoai va chim 34,6% trongtng kim ngach nhp khu cua ca nc.

V c cu th trng nhp khu:Nhp khu chu yu t cac th trngASEAN, Nht Ban, c bit la nhp khu tth trng Trung Quc nm nay tng 42%.Nhp khu t khi EU ch tng 4,2%, nhpkhu t th trng My giam nhng khngang k.

Tom lai, nm 2004 gia ca hang hoatrn th trng th gii tng manh a tacng n ca xut khu va nhp khu. Mcdu tc tng trng xut khu cao hn tc tng trng nhp khu nhng kim ngachnhp khu ln hn nhiu so vi kim ngachxut khu nn can cn thng mai cua VitNam nm 2004 nhp siu 5,45 ty USD (xutkhu tnh theo gia FOB, nhp khu tnh theogia CIF), cao hn mc nhp siu 5,1 ty USDcua nm 2003.

Ch s gia tiu dungCh s gia tiu dungNm 2004 la nm ch s gia tiu dung

tng t bin 9,5%, vt xa d kin unm. y cung la mc tng cao nht trongvong 8 nm tr lai y, cao hn ch tiu 5%Quc hi ra. Trong 10 nhom hang tnh chs gia tiu dung, gia nhom lng thc-thcphm co mc tng cao nht (15,6%), trongo lng thc tng 14,3%, thc phm tng17,1%; tip n la nhom dc phm y t vimc tng 9,1%; nhom nha va vt liu xydng tng 7,4%; cac nhom khac u co

some key imported products to Vietnam suchas fuels, and inputs for production soared upcomparing to those in 2003. As a result, totalimport volume reached USD 31.9 billion in2004, up by 26.5% comparing to 2003, ofwhich imported garment increased to USD1.92 billion, up by 41.1%, input and auxiliarymaterials for leather products stood at USD2.25 billion, up by 10.8%; plastic materialswas USD 1.19 billion, up by 43.7%;petroleum products was USD 3.57 billion, upby 46.5%, fertilizer of all types were USD 823million, up by 30.4%; and computers andspare parts were USD 912 million, up by103%.

Imports by the foreign-invested sectoramounted to USD 11 billion, up by 25.8%comparing to that of the previous year andaccounted for 34.6% of Vietnams total importturnover.

Structure of import market: Mostimports originated from ASEAN, Japan, andespecially this year, import from China grewby 42%. Import from EU increased by merely4.2% while imports from the U.S. was downnegligibly.

In a nutshell, high volatile internationalprices exerted strong impacts on both exportand import prices. Though export grew at ahigher rate, a much larger imported turnovercomparing to export volume had led to aUSD 5.45 billion trade deficit in Vietnam(FOB-based export, CIF-based import) whichis larger than the USD 5.1 billion trade deficitin 2003.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2004 was a year of unexpected surgein CPI to 9.5% much higher than projectionearlier in the year. This was the highestincrease over the past 8 years, exceedingthe 5% target set by the National Assembly.Out of 10 groups of commodities used as



mc tng t 2,2-5,9% (tr nhom giao ducgiam 1,8%). Gia lng thc thc phm tngmanh, ng thi nhom nay chim ty trong lntrong r hang hoa tiu dung, y la nhn tchnh lam ch s gia tiu dung tng cao trongnm 2004. Tuy nhin, mc tng ch s gia tiudung co xu hng giam dn qua cac quy cuanm 2004. Mc tng ch s gia tiu dung bnhqun theo thang trong Quy 1 la 1,63%/thang,Quy 2 la 0,73%/thang, Quy 3 la 0,47%/thang,Quy 4 la 0,27%/thang. Theo anh gia chung,ch s gia tiu dung tng manh la do cacnguyn nhn chu yu sau:

Kinh t th gii tng trng manh lamgia tng cu cua nc ngoai i vi hanghoa xut khu cua Vit Nam. Trong nm2004, cung vi cac chnh sach tch cc vm rng th trng, y manh xut khu,s tng trng cua kinh t th gii, cbit la nhng nn kinh t ln, a lamtng cu nhp khu v lng va keo theotng gia co li cho cac nc xut khu,trong o co Vit Nam. Bn canh o, nhucu nhp khu lng thc cua th gii,(c bit la cua Trung Quc) tng caolam cho gia gao xut khu trn th trngth gii tng, nn gia lua gao trong nccung tng theo - y la nguyn nhnquan trong lam ch s gia tiu dung tngtrong nm 2004.

S tac ng ng thi cua tnh thi vutrong san xut, tiu dung cui nm, Tt nguyn an Giap Thn va dch cum gia cm bung phat nhiu tnh, thanh ph trong ca nc trong thi gian nay a lamthiu hut ngun cung thc phm, qua o y gia thc phm ln cao cung vi s tng gia cua mt s mt hang khac.Ngoai ra, han han va ret m keo dai

the bases for CPI computation, the group offood and foodstuff recorded highest priceincrease (by 15.6%), of which foodincreased by 14.3%, and foodstuff up by17.1%; followed by pharmaceutical productgroup with an increase of 9.1%; housingand construction materials group up by7.4%; all the remaining groups increased inthe range of 2.2 5.9% (except theeducational group decreased by 1.8%). Astrong increase of food and foodstuff priceswith its big weight in the consumption goodsbasket was a major factor to the muchhigher CPI in 2004. Nevertheless, CPIgrowth rate tended to diminish graduallyfrom quarter to quarter during 2004.Monthly average increase of CPI in quarterI, II, III and IV were 1.63%, 0.73%, 0.47%and 0.27%, respectively. CPIs strongincrease was commonly attributable to thefollowing:

A strong economic growth worldwideaugmented foreign demand forVietnamese exported goods. 2004experienced positive policies inexpanding makets, promoting export,world economic growth, especially ofmajor economies, that led to largerdemand for quantity of imported goodswhich resulted in higher prices in favor ofexporting countries, including Vietnam.In addition, international (espciallyChinese) booming demand for importedgrains led to a higher international pricefor exported rice, and so did domesticone an important factor for CPIs surgein 2004.

A simultaneous impacts of theseasonality by Year-end and Lunar NewYear production, and consumptiontogether with bird flu in provinces, andmunicipalities nation-wide had led to a



trn din rng lam chi ph san xut nngnghip tng.

Gia nhiu nguyn liu u vao nhdu th, thep, nha, phn bon... trn thtrng th gii tng cao, lam chi ph sanxut tng, dn n gia thanh va gia bansan phm tng ln.

Cng tac iu hanh va d bao gia ca,quan ly th trng con han ch dn n mt s doanh nghip u c, tao th c quyn trong kinh doanh, d tr phongnga cha hp ly lam cho gia ban trongnc tng cao bt hp ly so vi gia trnth trng th gii.

Mt s nguyn nhn khac nh tacng tm ly cua th trng i vi cacthng tin v chnh sach iu chnh tnglng, chnh sach iu chnh gia vnchuyn hang khng va ng st, chnhsach kch cu cua Chnh phu trong cacnm trc co tac ng tr nht nh ngia ca trong nm 2004...

Trc din bin ch s gia tiu dung tngcao nh nu trn, Chnh phu a kp thi co cacgiai phap va ch ao cac b, nganh lin quankim soat tng gia nm 2004 (xem Hp 1).

Lao ng va vic lamLao ng va vic lamXet chung, nm 2004 tnh trang vic

lam c cai thin ang k tai khu vc thanhth a giai quyt c vic lam cho 1,55 triulao ng, bng 103,3% k hoach nm. Ty llao ng tht nghip khu vc thanh thtrong tui lao ng la 5,6%, giam nhe sovi mc 5,78% cua nm 2003. Tai khu vcnng thn qua trnh chuyn i c cu sanxut nng nghip va nng thn gn vi

shortage of food supplies, henceincreasing prices of food and some otherproducts. Besides, drought andprolonged cold weather in many areasalso raised the costs of agriculturalprduction.

Increased international prices for suchinput materials as crude oil, steels,plastics, fertilizers elevated productioncost and ultimately led to higher saleprices.

Restrained regulatory capability, priceforecast, and market surveillanceenabled certain enterprises to monopolise market and inappropriate reserveshad led to incompatibly high domesticprices vs. international prices.

Some other causes such as impacts of markets psychological reactions inthe wake of policies on salary increase,railway and airway transportationcharges adjustment, effects ofGovernments policy on demandstimulus in the previous years hadexerted certain effects on prices in 2004.

In the face of such high CPI, theGovernment took timely measures anddirected the relevant authorities to put highprice surge in 2004 under control (see Box 1).

Labor and employmentLabor and employment

All in all, a significantly improvedurban employment market in 2004 createdjobs for 1.55 million workers, equivalent to103.3% of the annual plan. Theunemployment rate for people of theworking age in urban areas decreasedslightly to 5.6% from 5.78% in 2003. In ruralareas, the agricultural and rural structuraltransformation took place in linkage tourbanization created new jobs and



increased employment time to 79.1% from77.66% in 2003.

Averaged per capita income wasabout VND 8.694 million/person/year, up by14.67% comparing to that of 2003. Higheconomic growth had been achieved inmany sectors, of which industrial, trade andservice sectors recorded a fair growth ratewhile agriculture and aquaculture increasedboth in value and output that helpedincrease per capita income.

Revenue and expenditureRevenue and expenditureof the State Budgetof the State Budget

Budget deficit in 2004 accounted for4.87% of GDP, lower than that of 2003 andequal to the one (5% of GDP) set by the

Month

CPI compared to the beginning of the year

Garment, textile, hat, footwear

Medicine, healthcares

Food, foodstuff

House, building materials

Education

Percentage against the beginning of the year

CH S GIA TIU DUNG NM 2OO4 CH S GIA TIU DUNG NM 2OO4 Consumer Price Index In 2004

th hoa, tao c hi tng vic lam, tng ty ls dung thi gian lao ng ln khoang79,1% so vi mc 77,66% cua nm 2003.

Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi nm2004 at khoang 8,694 triu ng/ngi/nm,tng 14,67% so vi nm 2003. Nhng thanhtu v kinh t tng trng cao nhiu khuvc, trong o khu vc cng nghip va thngmai dch vu tng kha, san xut nng nghipva nui trng thuy san tng ca v san lngva gia tr gop phn lam thu nhp u ngitng cao.

Thu chi ngn sach Nha ncThu chi ngn sach Nha ncMc thm hut ngn sach nm 2004 so

vi GDP khoang 4,87%, thp hn mc thmhut nm 2003 va bng mc thm hut Quc

Hp 1:

MT S CHU TRNG, CHNH SACH V N NH GIA CA TRONG NM 2004MT S CHU TRNG, CHNH SACH V N NH GIA CA TRONG NM 2004


1. Cac giai phap v m:

Ch th s 30/2004/CT-TTg ngay 05/8/2004 cua Thu tng Chnh phu v cac bin phap kim ch tc tng gia th trng trong thigian trc mt.

Chnh sach tai khoa: quan ly cht che chi tiu ngn sach nha nc; ct giam 10% kinh ph chi thng xuyn; nng cao hiu qua cngtac tit kim...

Chnh sach tin t: thn trong, linh hoat, tch cc, cht che, n nh lai sut, ty gia...

Bnh n gia cac mt hang quan trong, thit yu...

2. Cac giai phap n nh th trng:

Ngh nh s 169/2004/N-CP ngay 22/9/2004 hng dn vic x phat hanh chnh trong lnh vc gia.

n nh th trng tn dc:

* Ngh nh s 120/2004/N-CP ngay 12/5/2004 cua Chnh phu v quan ly gia thuc, phong cha bnh cho ngi.

* Thng t s 07/2004/TT-BYT ngay 31/5/2004 cua B Y t v hng dn vic xut nhp khu thuc va my phm anh hng trctip n sc khoe con ngi n ht nm 2005.

n nh th trng xng du, st thep:

Chnh phu 2 ln giam thu nhp khu va tng thu thep 1 ln.

* Quyt nh s 23/2004/Q-BTC ngay 01/3/2004 cua B Tai chnh v vic quy nh tam thi mc thu sut thu nhp khu u aii vi mt s mt hang st thep. Theo o, thu nhp khu phi thep xung 0%, thep thanh phm t 40% xung 20% khng phnbit trong hay ngoai ASEAN.

* Quyt nh s 53/2004/Q-BTC ngay 15/6/2004 cua B Tai chnh v vic iu chnh tr lai mc thu sut thu nhp khu u aii vi 1 s mt hang st thep. Theo o thu nhp khu thep thanh phm i vi cac nc trong ASEAN la 15% va ngoai ASEANla 20%; phi thep tng ng la 5% va 10%.

* Quyt nh s 71/2004/Q-BTC ngay 31/8/2004 cua B Tai chnh quy nh giam thu nhp khu thep xy dng va phi thep t20% va 10% xung con 10% va 5%.

Gia trn ban le xng c iu chnh tng 2 ln:

* Quyt nh s 20/2004/Q-BTC ngay 21/2/2004 cua B Tai chnh v gia ban nh hng xng du nm 2004.

* Quyt nh s 56/2004/Q-BTC ngay 18/6/2004 cua B Tai chnh v vic iu chnh gia ban nh hng xng du nm 2004.

n nh th trng lng thc va phn bon:

* Cng vn s 3612/BTM-XNK ngay 07/7/2004 cua B Thng mai v vic xut khu gao 6 thang cui nm. Theo o n nh chtiu xut khu gao trong nm 2004 la 3,5 triu tn.

* Quyt nh s 72/2004/Q-BTC ngay 31/8/2004 cua B Tai chnh v vic tam thi iu chnh thi gian np thu gia tr gia tng ivi phn bon khu nhp khu.

n nh th trng xy dng:

* Quyt nh s 45/2004/Q-BTC ngay 6/5/04 cua B Tai chnh v vic sa i mc thu sut thu nhp khu u ai i vi mthang clanke. Theo o giam thu nhp khu clanke t 40% xung 25% i vi clanke nhp t cac nc khng thuc ASEAN; thunhp khu clanke t ASEAN gi mc 20%.

* Quyt nh s 104/Q-BTC ngay 31/12/2004 cua B Tai chnh v vic sa i mc thu sut thu nhp khu u ai i vi mthang clanke. Theo o, clanke san xut xi mng trng va cac loai khac c hng mc thu sut 10% thay v 25% nh hin taicon cac loai khac vn gi nguyn mc thu sut 40% nh hin tai.


Box 1: A NUMBER OF PRICE STABILIZATION POLICIES ADOPTED IN 2004A NUMBER OF PRICE STABILIZATION POLICIES ADOPTED IN 2004

1. Macroeconomic measures:

Directive No. 30/2004/CT-TTg dated 5th August 2004 issued by the Prime Minister regarding market price control measures inshort-run.

Fiscal policy: tightening fiscal expenditures; current expenditures were cut off by 10%; saving activities were strengthened etc. Monetary policy: prudent, flexible, positive, rigorous, exchange rate and interest rate stabilization etc. Stabilization vs. important and indispensable goods etc.

2. Market Stabilization Measures:

Decree No. 169/2004/ND-CP dated 22nd September 2004 issued by the Government guiding on administrative sanctions on price violations.

Stabilization of medicine markets:Decree No. 120/2004/ND-CP dated 12th May 2004 issued by the Government regarding medicine price management, patient prophylaxis and healthcare. - Circular No. 07/2004/TT-BYT dated 31

stMay 2004 of Ministry of Health guiding the import and export of medicines and

cosmetics which affect directly human health by the end of 2005.

Stabilization of petroleum and steel markets:The Government had reduced import tariffs twice and increased steel tax once.- Decision No. 23/2004/Q-BTC dated 1st March 2004 of Ministry of Finance defined temporarily the preferential import tariffsfor a number of steels and irons. Accordingly, import tariff for rough draft of steels was reduced to 0%, finished steels to 20%from the previous 40% regardless its ASEAN or non-ASEANs source of origin.- Decision No. 53/2004/Q-BTC dated 15th June 2004 of Ministry of Finance redefined preferential import tariff vs. specified

steels and irons. Accordingly, 15% import tariff was applicable to finished steels with ASEAN origin and 20% tariff applicable tothe those of non-ASEAN origin; As for rough draft of steels, it was 5% and 10%, respectively.- Decision No. 71/2004/Q-BTC dated 31st August 2004 of Ministry of Finance defined a reduction of import tariff for

construction steel and drought drafts to 10% and 5%, respectively, from their previous 20% and 10%.

Ceiling retail petroleum price had been adjusted twice:- Decision No. 20/2004/Q-BTC dated 21st February 2004 of Ministry of Finance regarding the indicative sale price of petroleumin 2004.- Decision No. 56/2004/Q-BTC dated 18th June 2004 of Ministry of Finance regarding the adjustment vs. the indicative sale price ofpetroleum in 2004.

Stabilization of grain and fertilizer markets:- Official dispatch No. 3612/BTM-XNK dated 7th July 2004 of Minstry of Trade regarding the rice export over the second half ofthe year which targeted rice export of 3.5 million tones for 2004.- Decision No. 72/2004/Q-BTC dated 31st August 2004 of Ministry of Finance regarding the temporary adjustment over the VATpayment period vs.imported fertilizers.

Stabilization of construction markets:- Decision No. 45/2004/Q-BTC dated 6th May 2004 of Ministry of Finance revised the preferential import tariff for clinker in

which imported tariff for clinker were reduced to 25% (from the previous 40%) with non-ASEAN origin and remained 20% withASEAN origin.- Decision No. 104/Q-BTC dated 31st December 2004 of Ministry of Finance revised the preferential import tariff for clinker

in which clinker used for white cement production and others down to 10% instead of the prevailing 25%. Tariffs for the othersremained 40%.





hi cho phep (5% GDP) do thu ngn sachNha nc tng va chi ngn sach Nha ncthc hin ung d toan, cu th nh sau: Thungn sach Nha nc vt d toan 20,8%,y la nm th 7 lin tip thu ngn sach vtd toan (nm 1998 vt 7,3%; nm 1999vt 12,9%; nm 2000 vt 20,3%, nm2001 vt 13,5%, nm 2002 vt 6,5%, nm2003 vt 7,1%).

Thu ngn sach Nha nc tng kha mtmt do kinh t tng trng kha va gia dutng 51,8% so vi d toan. Thu t du thvt 81,0% so vi d toan. Mt khac cacchnh sach thu mi ngay cang c hoanthin trong nm 2003 va nm 2004 akhuyn khch cac thanh phn kinh t u tvao san xut kinh doanh, nn cac ngun thukhac u tng cao. Thu t doanh nghip covn u t nc ngoai (khng k du th)tng 20,5%, thu thu cng thng nghip vadch vu ngoai quc doanh tng 11,1%, thuthu thu nhp i vi ngi co thu nhp caotng 8,2%, cac khoan thu v nha t tng163,7%, thu thu s dung t nng nghiptng 113,8%, ring thu t doanh nghip Nhanc giam 3,2%. Thu ngn sach Nha nctng trng cao a tao ngun gop phn tngthm ngun u t t ngn sach Nha ncvao c s ha tng, h tr cho u t phattrin san xut, xut khu va tng trng kinht trong nhng nm tip theo.

Chi ngn sach Nha nc vt 23,4%so vi d toan (nm 2003 vt 6,1% so vid toan); c cu chi ngn sach Nha ncc thay i tch cc hn, am bao u tphat trin kinh t, tra n trong va ngoai nc,b sung d phong quy d tr tai chnh. Nhtng ngun thu ngn sach Nha nc, trong

National Assembly as the State Budgetfollowed properly its projected plan,specifically: Budget revenue exceeded by20.8% comparing to initial projection,constituting its 7th consecutive year ofexceeded budget revenue (exceeded by7.3%, 12.9%, 20.3%, 13.5%, 6.5% and7.1% in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and2003, respectively).

The fair increase of State Budgetrevenue could be attributed partially to arelatively high economic growth rate and anactual oil price which was 51.8% higherthan predicted. Crude oil revenuesexceeded projection by 81%. In addition,new improved taxation policies during 2003and 2004 encouraged further businessinvestment by economic sectors that raisedrevenues of all types. Revenues fromforeign-invested enterprises (excludingcrude oil), tax revenues from non-stateindustrial, trade and service sectors, incometax revenues from high-income groups,house- and land-related transactions,agricultural land use rents all increased by20.5%, 11.1%, 8.2%, 163.7% and 113.8%,respectively. While revenues from SOEsdecreased by 3.2%. A highly increasedState Budget revenue further contributedState Budget investment on infrastructure,capital expenditures, export and economicgrowth for the years to come.

State Budgets expenditures exceededby 23.4% comparing to projection (6.1% in2003); State Budgets expenditure structurewas transformed positively which ensuredinvestment for economic development,servicing foreign and domestic debts andsupplementing financial reserves. Thanks tosuch increased revenue in 2004, the StateBudget had more resources to invest in



nm 2004, Ngn hang Nha nc a tngngun u t vao c s ha tng, h trcho u t phat trin kinh t. Bi chi ngnsach Nha nc c bu p t ngun vaytrong nc va vay nc ngoai. Ngun bu ptrong nc chu yu t ngun phat hanh traiphiu Chnh phu.

Tit kim va u t Tit kim va u t

Nm 2004 cung vi mc tng trngcao cua nn kinh t, tiu dung cui cungcung tng manh (tnh theo gia so sanh nm1994, tiu dung cui cung tng 6,33%, trongo tiu dung cui cung cua Chnh phu tng7,77%, tiu dung cua khu vc t nhn tng6,19%). Tng u t toan xa hi cung tng9,61% so vi nm 2003 (tnh theo gia sosanh nm 1994) ap ng nhu cu tngtrng kinh t mc cao. Nu tnh theo giahin hanh, tit kim trong nc c caithin t mc 26,6% GDP nm 2003 ln mc27,5% GDP nm 2004. Tng u t tng tmc 35,4% GDP nm 2003 ln mc 36,2%GDP nm 2004.

Nh vy, ty l tit kim trong nc sovi GDP c cai thin nhng tng u ttoan xa hi so vi GDP cung tng ln. VitNam tip tuc co thiu hut gia tit kim vau t, phan anh thc t la can cn vang laitip tuc thm hut, nhng mc thm hut ac thu hep t mc 1.931 triu USD trongnm 2003, xung con 925 triu USD cuanm 2004.

Can cn thanh toan qucCan cn thanh toan quct nm 2004t nm 2004

infrastructure, and support investment foreconomic development. State Budgetsdeficit was financed by domestic andforeign borrowings. Domestic borrowingsmainly came from Government bondissuance.

Investment and SavingInvestment and Saving

In parallel with high economic growthin 2004, final consumption boomed (basedon the comparative price of 1994,consumption increased by 6.33% of whichGovernments consumption increased by7.77%, private sectors consumption up by6.19%). Aggregate investment of thesociety increased also by 9.61% comparingto 2003 (based on the comparative price of1994) to meet the demand of high economicgrowth. If current price was adopted,domestic savings would increase to 27.5%of GDP in 2004 against 26.6% of GDP in2003. Aggregate investment increased to36.2% of GDP in 2004 against 35.4% ofGDP in 2003.

Though domestic saving over GDPimproved, aggregate investment over GDPincreased. Vietnam maintained its gapbetween saving and investment, reflecting acontinuing deficit of the current account.However the gap had been narrowed fromUSD 1.931 billion in 2003 to USD 925million in 2004.

International Balance ofInternational Balance ofPayment in 2004Payment in 2004

The overall balance posted USD 883million as surplus in 2004, a significant


Can cn tng th nm 2004 thng d883 triu USD, giam so vi mc thng d2.151 triu USD nm 2003. Can cn tngth thng d chu yu do thm hut can cnvang lai c thu hep va can cn vn tiptuc thng d.

Thm hut can cn vang lai thu hept mc 1.931 triu USD nm 2003 (bng4,9% GDP) xung mc 925 triu USD nm2004 (bng 2,02% GDP) chu yu do thmhut can cn thng mai giam va mt phndo chuyn tin t nhn tng ln. Can cnthng mai thm hut 2.255 triu USD, giamso vi mc thm hut 2.581 triu USD nm2003 do co s tng trng manh cua xutkhu. Thm hut can cn dch vu nm 2004 mc 872 triu USD, cao hn mt chut so vimc thm hut 778 triu USD cua nm 2003.Thu nhp u t rong thm hut 891 triuUSD, cao hn mc thm hut 811 triu USDcua nm 2003 chu yu do li nhun cuadoanh nghip u t nuc ngoai tng. angchu y chuyn tin rong nm 2004 at 3.093triu USD, tng manh so vi mc 2.239 triuUSD cua nm 2003 chu yu la chuyn tinkiu hi va chuyn tin cua ngi lao ng,gop phn giam thm hut can cn vang lai.

decrease as compared to USD 2.151 billionin 2003. Overall balances surplus wasattributable mainly to the current accountsnarrowed deficit and a preserved surplus ofthe capital account.

Deficit of the current account wasnarrowed to USD 925 million (equivalent to2.02% of GDP) in 2004 comparing to USD1.931 billion (4.9% of GDP) in 2003 owingmostly to the decreased deficit of the tradebalance and partly to increased privatetransfers. Trade balances deficit was USD2.255 billion, lower than the USD 2.581billion deficit in 2003 thanks to high exportgrowth. Service accounts deficit was USD872 million in 2004, slightly higher thanUSD 778 million deficit in 2003. Netinvestment income showed a deficit of USD891 million, higher than the USD 811 milliondeficit of the previous year as profitability offoreign-invested enterprises improved.Notably, net transfers was USD 3.093 billionin 2004, as a significant increase againstUSD 2.239 billion in 2003 mostlycontributed by money remittance ofVietnamese overseas residents and guestworkers, hence decreasing currentaccounts deficit.




Nu khng k chuyn tin rong, thmhut can cn vang lai nm 2004 mc 8.4%GDP2. Mc du thm hut mc cao nhngkhng ang ngai i vi mt nc thiu vnva ky thut cng ngh nh Vit Nam bitrong c cu nhp khu chu yu la hangmay moc, thit b, nguyn vt liu phuc vusan xut trong nc tng manh. Tuy nhin,din bin trn cho thy mt trong nhngnguyn nhn lam tng nhp khu la do giamay moc, thit b, nguyn vt liu trn thtrng th gii tng manh. iu nay phananh san xut trong nc phu thuc nhiuvao din bin kinh t th gii. Do vy, sanxut hang thay th nhp khu cn c chutrong hn na am bao n nh can cnthng mai.

Excluding net transfers, currentaccounts deficit in 2004 would be equalto 8.4%2 of GDP2. High deficit should notbe a big concern for a country inshortage of capital and technology likeVietnam as most of imported goods wereequipment, facilities, and productioninputs for domestic expansion.Nevertheless, such a developmentshowed that the constantly increasedinternational price of facilities,equipment, and input materialscontributed among other things to importactivities which show a significantindependence of domestic production onthe world economic development.Therefore, more emphasis should beplaced on producing import substitutes tostabilize trade account.

Nm/year

Phn trm/Percent

Trade balance Current account Current account/GDP

Triu USD/USD million

CAN CN THNG MAI VA CAN CN VANG LAI CUA VIT NAM, 2001 - 2004CAN CN THNG MAI VA CAN CN VANG LAI CUA VIT NAM, 2001 - 2004VIETNAM: TRADE BALANCE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT, 2001-2004

2 Excluding net transfers, current accounts deficit was10.2% of GDP in 2003

2 Nm 2003, thm hut can cn vang lai khng kchuyn tin rong mc 10,2% GDP

Thng d can cn vn cao hnnhiu so vi mc thm hut can cnvang lai: Nm 2004, can cn vn atthng d 2.753 triu USD. Trong o, giaingn u t trc tip cua nc ngoai at1.610 triu USD, cao hn mc 1.450 triuUSD cua nm 2003. Vay, tra n trung daihan rong at thng d 1.162 triu USDtng manh so vi mc thng d 457 triuUSD cua nm 2003 do giai ngn cackhoan vay trung, dai han tng manh, cuth Tng cng ty Hang khng vay ncngoai mua may bay tr gia 366 triuUSD, nhng n gc n han tra vay trungdai han thp hn mc nm 2003. Tuynhin, vay, tra n ngn han rong achuyn t thng d 26 triu USD cua nm2003 sang thm hut 54 triu USD nm2004 do mt s chi nhanh ngn hangnc ngoai Vit Nam vay ngn hang meva tin hanh tra n ngay. Trong nm2004, h thng ngn hang thng maiu t ra nc ngoai di hnh thc tingi 35 triu USD, ngc vi xu hng rut1.372 triu USD tin gi ngoai t ncngoai v trong nm 2003. Nguyn nhnchu yu la do lai sut ng la My trnth trng th gii tng do Cuc d tr linbang My tng lai sut lin ngn hang nhhng cua ng la My t 1%/nm ln2,25%/nm.

Din bin can cn thanh toan nm

Capital accounts surplus wellexceeded current accounts deficit:Capital account posted a surplus of USD2.753 billion in 2004, of which, disbursedFDI was USD 1.610 billion, higher thanthe USD 1.450 billion in 2003. Mediumand long-term borrowings and repaymentsgenerated a surplus of USD 1.162 billion,as strong increase in comparison to USD457 million in 2003 thanks to a significantincrease in disbursed medium and long-term borrowings. Specifically, VietnamAirlines obtained a foreign loan of USD366 million however their medium andlong-term debt repayment in 2003 waslower than that of 2003. On the otherhand, the short-term net borrowings ofUSD 26 million surplus in 2003 had turnedinto a USD 54 million deficit in 2004 as anumber of foreign bank branches inVietnam took bridge loans from theirholding companies for immediaterepayment. 2004 also witnessed anaggregate USD 35 million overseasdeposits by local commercial banks, areversed trend comparing to the USD1.372 billion overseas deposit withdrawalin 2003. It was mainly attributable to thehigher USD-denominated interest rate ininternational market as Fed increasedUSD-denominated federal funds rate to2.25% p.a from its previous 1% p.a.





Nm/year

USD million

Capital account

External medium and long-term loans (net)

Money and deposits

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

External short-term loans (net)

C CU CAN CN VN CUA VIT NAM, 2001 - 2004C CU CAN CN VN CUA VIT NAM, 2001 - 2004Vietnam Capital Account Structure, 2001-2004

2004 cho thy mc du thm hut can cnvang lai mc cao nhng c cu tai trthm hut can cn vang lai kha lanh manh(chu yu vn la ngun vn u t trctip nc ngoai, vay trung, dai han). yla nhng ngun vn co thi han dai, chiph thp, khng cha ng rui ro rut vnt ngt, gop phn n nh kinh t v m,thuc y tng trng kinh t.

Developments of the balance ofpayment in 2004 indicates that thoughthe current accounts deficit remainedhigh, its funding structure of deficitremained quite robust (mostly fundedby FDI, and medium and long-termborrowings) which are of longmaturity, cost-effective, minimum riskof abrupt withdrawal, thus helping tostabil ise the macroeconomicenvironment, and promote economicgrowth.

41

Nm 2004, tnh hnh th gii vatrong nc co nhiu din binphc tap, ch s gia tiu dungtng cao vt xa d kin u nm, song thtrng tin t vn c duy tr tng i nnh. Lai sut huy ng va cho vay bng caVND va ngoai t u kha n nh trongnhng thang u nm, nhng tng nhe vaocui nm do anh hng cua ch s gia tiudung tng cao va xu hng tng lai sutngoai t trn th trng quc t. Huy ngtin gi bng ngoai t tng manh, trong khihuy ng tin gi bng VND tng trngchm hn nm 2003. Tng trng tn dungcua toan h thng t chc tn dung kha cao,ap ng nhu cu phat trin kinh t. Tuynhin, cac t chc tn dung a m rng tndung gn lin vi nng cao cht lng tndung, ty l n xu trong tng d n giamang k. Hoat ng th trng tin t kha sing, nht la th trng ngoai t lin ngnhang co nhiu chuyn bin tch cc. Doanhs giao dch ky han cung nh giao dch hoani u tng do mi trng kinh doanhngoai t a thng thoang hn trc. Dinbin ty gia tip tuc duy tr n nh, phan anhsat quan h cung cu ngoai t kha cn bngtrn th trng.

DIN BIN TIN TMONETARY DEVELOPMENTS

I n 2004, despite volatile andcomplex developmentsinternationally and domestically witha CPI well surpassing initial projection, themoney market was managed quite stably.Deposit and lending interest rates both in VNDand foreign currencies remained quite stablefor the initial months of the year, increasedslightly toward the end of the year as it wasaffected by an increasing CPI and an upwardtrend of foreign currencies-denominatedinterest rates internationally. Foreign currencydeposits grew significantly while VND depositsgrowth underpaced that of 2003. Credit growthof the whole system stayed quite high that meteconomic development demand. Creditinstitutions, however, expanded loans inconjunction with improved asset quality thatled to a considerable reduction of non-performing loan ratio. Money market was quiteactive, especially the inter-bank foreigncurrency market showed positivedevelopments. Volume of forward and swaptransactions both improved thanks to a moreflexible business environment for foreignexchange. Exchange rates continued itssmooth development, reflecting a quite goodequilibrium between market demand andsupply.

DIN BIN TIN T


TOTAL LIQUIDITYTOTAL LIQUIDITYDEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS

As at the end of December 2004, totalliquidity was up by 30.39%, much higherthan that of 24.94% in 2003. This was mainlyattributable to a significant increase of39.50% in total domestic assets while netforeign assets grew slightly by 10.99% (lowerthan that of 11.91% in 2003).

In terms of liquidity structure, cash incirculation accounted for 20.35% of totalliquidity, slightly lower than previous yearslevels (22.56% in 2002, and 22.03% in2003). This reflected an increasingimprovement in total liquidi

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Bao Cao Kinh Te vi mo vn 2004