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Balance sheet strenght enables growth and value creation Capital Markets Day
5 November 2014
Timo Karttinen, CFO
1
Agenda
2
• January-September results
• Efficiency programme
– Fixed costs
• Market outlook
• Financial targets
• Cash flow - Net debt
• Summary
Summary of January-September 2014
3
• Good results in continuously demanding market environment
• Flexible hydro production partly offset weak electricity price
• Strong cash flow from operations
• Finnish and Norwegian electricity distribution business sales completed. The
evaluating and planning of the possible future divestment of the Swedish
electricity distribution business continued
• The target for the Russia segment in Russian roubles (RUB 18.2 billion) to be
reached during 2015 is intact, but the euro result level will be volatile
• Finnish Government decided not to introduce the power plant tax (so called
windfall tax)
• Efficiency programme close to completion – successfully finalised
January-September 2014 Results
Key figures (EUR) III/14 III/13 I-III/14 I-III/13 2013 LTM
Sales, million 976 1,060 3,466 3,918 5,309 4,857
Comparable EBITDA, million 309 336 1,317 1,429 1,975 1,863
Operating profit, million 149 96 2,778 1,002 1,508 3,284
Comparable operating profit,
million 183 167 915 979 1,403 1,339
Profit before taxes, million 95 27 2,721 904 1,398 3,215
Earnings per share 0.10 0.04 2.91 0.84 1.36 3.42
Items affecting comparability -0.03 -0.05 2.11 0.03 0.10 2.19
Net cash from operating
activities, million 288 401 1,310 1,150 1,548 1,708
Cash flow before financing
activities, million 259 152 3,987 653 604 3,938
4
• The efficiency programme will be finalised during Q4 – focus will stay
• Total annual cost savings visible in all divisions
• Improved working capital efficiency
• Divestments of non-core assets totalling more than EUR 500 million
Fortum's efficiency programme 2013-2014
5
SPEED - Cash flow improved by EUR 1 billion – FLEXIBILITY
CAPEX EUR 250-350 million
DIVESTMENTS EUR 500 million
WORKING CAPITAL
Reduction
FIXED COSTS
Reduce EUR 150 million compared to 2012
WHY WHAT WHEN
2013-2014
Efficiency programme reductions starting from Q3 2012
6
SPEED - Cash flow improved by EUR 1 billion – FLEXIBILITY
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 E2014
Divestments
700
750
800
850
900
950
2012 2013 E2014
Fixed costs
CAPEX
EUR 250-350 million
DIVESTMENTS
EUR 500 million
WORKING CAPITAL
Reduction
FIXED COSTS
Reduce EUR 150 million compared to 2012
NOTE! LTM (last twelve months) used for 2014 in investments and fixed costs.
NOTE! Working capital excluding Distribution, derivatives related
receivables and liabilities and unpaid investments
Sa
vin
gs
CA
PE
X
NOTE! Fixed cost development excluding Distribution, Heat
Norway, property tax increase and Caruna charges
-100
0
100
200
300
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2012 2013 E2014
CAPEX Savings
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 E2014
Working Capital
Tax environment; predictability – how to meet future challenges
7
• Take total taxes into consideration early
– When making investment analysis, orders, agreements
– When restructuring operations
• Synchronise legal decision making with operative decision making
– Tax authorities formalistic®ard governance&operative document to be tax based.
• Compliance
– Compliance can be expensive, however, non-compliance is expensive x 10
– Documentation
• Tax audit readiness
• Communication
– External communication => public and tax authorities
High attention
Low attention
+
V
a
l
u
e
c
r
e
a
t
i
o
n
_
Market outlook remains flat The power market opportunity shifts from volume to price volatility
• Electricity price scenario in the
Nordics is flattish
– Moderate demand growth on average
– Renewable supply continues to grow
– Slow appreciation of the carbon and fuel
prices
• …but intraday price volatility
expected to increase driven by RES
8
* Average spot price = Average price of area spot prices SE2 20%, SE3 40% and HEL 40% (Fortum’s production fleet in average year)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
€/MWh
Nord Pool electricity price
Market forwards forSYS (mid-Oct)SYS spot price
Area spot price*
Financial targets
LTM 2013 Target
Return on capital employed, ROCE (%) 18.9 9.0 12
Return on shareholders’ equity, ROE (%) 29.0 12.0 14
Comparable net debt/EBITDA 2.6 3.9 ~3
- excluding Värme 2.2 3.4
9
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM
Over the cycle ROCE%
10 Y FIN Bond
ROCE target
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM
10
Fortum has invested heavily, keeping capital structure and dividends at a good level
• By investing we maintain the current
assets and create growth for future
• Strong balance sheet and capital structure
stronger than target
• Healthy dividends - capital structure target
and dividend policy intact
Dividend per share
Capital expenditure and gross investments in shares
Comparable debt/EBITDA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MEUR
EUR
* *
* *
* Restated
Fortum’s maintenance investments (excluding Distribution) clearly below depreciation with current portfolio
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
MEUR
E2016 E2015 E2014 2013
Depreciation excl. Distribution Fortum Group
Note: Excluding Distribution
Cash flow increasing post the efficiency programme
12
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LTM
Cash flow from operating activities MEUR
Diversified funding base – net debt EUR 4.8 billion at the end of September 2014
13
per 30 Sep, 2014 per 31 Dec, 2013
Average interest rate (incl. swaps and forwards) 3.9% 3.6%
Portion of floating / fixed debt 47 / 53% 51 / 49%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+
Bonds Financial institutions Other long-term debt CPs Other short-term debt
MEUR
2014 32
2015 1,035
2016 863
2017 548
2018 629
2019 821
2020 76
2021 547
2022 1,057
2023 112
2024+
TOTAL
1,249
6,969
113 140
Change in net debt during Q1- Q3 2014
14
Net debt Q314
-3,003 (-39%)
Fx and other
4,790 6
Dividend Divest
977
Ch.in rec
425
2,836 584
Ch. in WC
Finance cost
and tax
Non cash
Capex & acq
EBITDA
3,185
Net debt Q413
7,793
1,903
In Q1-Q3 2014 • Generated cash from operations
EUR 1.3 billion (bn)
• Invested with EUR 0.6 bn
• Divested with EUR 2.8 bn
• Received from Värme EUR 467 million from interest-bearing receivables
• Paid dividends approx. EUR 1 bn
• Paid back loans with EUR 2.1 bn
• Increased cash with EUR 0.9 bn
Access to liquidity
• Fortum has a strong financial position
• Good liquidity – committed credit lines total EUR 2.2 billion
• Good interest in Fortum among investors
LIQUID FUNDS AND COMMITTED CREDIT LINES Available Outstanding Total amount
1) Valid until further notice
2) Maturity dates,;EUR 2 billion until July 2016 , EUR 1.9 billion July, 2017
217 0 217 2,000 0 2,000
2,217 0 2,217
Committed Credit Lines
Short Term 1)
Long Term 2)
Total
Liquid Funds Total 2,178 of which in Russia 259
Total Available Cash and Committed Financing 4,395
15
Fortum achieved price premium driven by right type of capacity and actions
We utilise our competences and flexibility in all markets – from intra-day to financial markets
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Sp
ot a
nd
ach
ieve
d p
rice
(E
UR
/MW
h)
Ach
ieve
d p
rice
pre
miu
m v
s.
ma
rke
t (E
UR
/MW
h)
Achieved premium Spot price, SE&FI avg. Achieved power price
Annual average electricity prices and hedging levels at the end of September 2014
17
Hedging policy targets • Decrease volatility in company comparable
operating profit
• Secure EBITDA to meet company’s financial
obligations
• Hedging should in average contribute positively
• Focus on current portfolio
– Flexibility - Profitability - Scrutinize investments in current portfolio
– Cost control
– Continuous efficiency improvements
– Working capital optimisation
– Further divestments of non-core assets or ones with limited potential
– Hedges
• Growth investments
– Profitable projects with fast pay-back in focus
– Successfull divestments create platform to execute growth
Efficiency, cash flow and investments in focus
18
Business builds on current portfolio – in addition, we will select the most profitable new
investments to support our financial targets and deliver excellent value to our
shareholders
Summary
• Efficiency programme has been finalised and the work continues…
– Cost control
– Efficiency - Working capital optimisation
– Cash flow
– Investments – both current and growth
– Hedging to capture the increasing volatility
• Stong balance sheet and operational cash flow
– Strenght in demanding enviroment
– Ready for the future
19
For more information, please visit www.fortum.com/investors