Backto theCountry ofthe Future - cps.fgv.br‡ÃO_INGLES_I.pdf · Source: CPS/FGV fromthePNAD/IBGE microdata *Adjustedby POF **Updated to July 2011 Prices. ... 2003 2004 2005 2006

21/3/2012

1

Back to the Country of the Future:

Forecasts, European Crisis and the NewMiddle Classin Brazil (with special reference to women)

Coordination: Marcelo Neri

Executive Summary: Outline• Chronicle of a New Foretold Crisis

– New Year, New Crisis? (The W of the Question)– After the Crisis (a Tsunamy or a ripple?)– Is the Brazilian Inequality in its lowest historical level?

• The Future of the Brazilian New Middle Class– Measures of Polarization and Conceptualization of the Middle Class– Class Scenarios for 2014– The Great Decade (2004 to 2014)

• Life Satisfaction Expectation– The Country of the Future– The Collective of Brazilian

• Are Women more Optimistic than Men?– Female´s Future Felicity: The Biggest in the World– The Future of Women (Women of the Future)

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2

www.fgv.br/cps/ncm2014/eng

4,6%

6,1%

6,0%

4,0%

%

Renda MédiaAverage Income

Per Capita Income Changes over previous 12 Month

2,7%

0,5%

4

3,3%

0,9%

0,5%

0,5%

2,0% 2,7%

mai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 jun10 a jun11 jul10 a jul11

ago10 a ago11 set10 a set11 out10 a out11 nov10 a nov11 dez10 a dez11 jan11 a jan12

Source: CPS/FGV from the PME/IBGE microdata

All the major inflections of the income distribution over the last 20 years wereantecipated by PME www.fgv.br/cps/debatesocial Growth slows in the end of the year: post‐new crisis but also high initial basis in 2010 due to presidential election bussiness cycle and to the resumption from the previouscrisis. Growth accelerates again from October onwards until al least January 2012

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3

,7%

% %

1%4,6%

6,1%

,7%

Renda Média Gini PobrezaPovertyAverage Income

Recent Evolution

2

‐1,5%

‐7,5%

0,5%

0,3% 2,

‐1,9%

‐8,8%

‐1,2%

%

2

‐2,1%

‐7,9%

‐

‐11,7%

mai02 a mai08 mai08 a mai09 mai09 a mai10 mai10 a mai11 jan11 a jan12

Source: CPS/FGV from the PME/IBGE microdata

The combination of Growth and inequality fall lead to a fall in poverty.

Chronicle of the Crisis (until January 2012)• The european crisis hasn’t reached the pocket of theBrazilians at least not those in the basis of the distribution.

• Growth of per capita household income of 2,7% in 12Growth of per capita household income of 2,7% in 12 meses, matching with the growth from 2002‐08 andsuperior to the 0% produced in 2009 as a result of the 2008 crisis and the ‐4,57% from the Asian+ Russian crisis (end of1990s).

• In 12 months ended in January 2012 poverty falls 7,9%, y p ythree times faster than the UN Millenium Goal.

• In the 12 months ended in January 2012 the Gini falls at a 2,1%, rate almost 50% faster than the one from the firstyears of the last decade, which became known as theperiod of the fall of inequality,.

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4

0,58280,5902

0,6091

0,5957

0 56

0,58

0,6

0,62

Long-term Vision – The Minimum of Brazilian Inequality

0,53670,5448

0,5377

0,5190

0,48

0,5

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,46

1960# 1970 1979 1990 2001 2009 2010* 2012 Jan*

Source: CPS/FGV from microdata the PNAD (September), PME e Censo / IBGE e Langoni 1973. obs: PNAD adjusted by # Census e *PME.

The Brazilian Gini falls from 0.596 in 2001 to 0.519 in Janeiro 2012,almost 3.3% lower than its minimal historical level since 1960.

Evolution of Different Income Groups(50%‐, 40% e 10%+) Share in Income

36.41%

39.52%

38.47%

39.28%

40.11%

40.52%

50 ‐ 40 10 +

12.16%

12.09%

10.56%

12.12%

12.35%

12.16%

51.43%

48.40%

50.97%

48.60%

47.54%

47.32%

1976 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997

.30%

.20%

.72%

.78%

1.65%

1.78%

47.05%

47.25%

46.09%

45.12%

43.61%

42.83%

50 ‐ 40 10 +

12.65%

12.55%

13.19%

14.10%

14.74%

15.39%

40.

40.

40

40 41 414 4

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: CPS/FGV from the PNAD/IBGE microdata

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5

Polarization and Inequality: Parallels

0.25

0.26

0.26

0.27

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.25

50.61

.60

0.60

.60

.60

60 0.588

0.5960.6040.612

0 2550

0.2600

0.2650

0.2700PER

Gini0

0.25

0.25

0.24

0.24

0.23

0.23

0.58

0. 0 0 0

0.59

0.6

0.59

0.58

0.57

0.57

0.56

0.56

0.55

0.54

0.5400.5480.5560.5640.5720.580

0.2300

0.2350

0.2400

0.2450

0.2500

0.255092

93

95

96

97

98

99

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

199

199

199

199

199

199

199

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200


Inequality in Per Capita Familiar IncomePOF and PNAD are Very Similar

72768084889296

100

PNAD 2002‐2003

POF 2002‐2003

812162024283236404448525660646872

Renda

048

1 4 710

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52

55

58

61

64

67

70

73

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

100

População


As the difference resumes into the means and our classes were defined by the relativedistribution, we just need to multiply the values of the PNAD by the POF factor,mantaining the same proportions in each class.

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6

Measures of Polarization andConceptualization of Middle Class

• The EGR strategy generates brackets of income classes of theincome distribution observed in practice. The brackets chosenincome distribution observed in practice. The brackets chosenwere the ones which better distinguish the 3 groups in a sense that they select the lowest possible differences insidethem and on the other hand maximize the differencesbetween groups. We initially calculated the brackets ofincome for the case of 3 segments (AB, C e DE) .

• Wemade an adjustment in the brackets of classes by the POF,We made an adjustment in the brackets of classes by the POF, which is the most complete in capturing different incomesources, but without changing the percentages themselves.

Definição das Classes Econômicas

Classes and Total Household Income (calculated by per capita terms)

Definition of Economic Classes

limitesInferior Superior

Classe E 0 1085Classe D 1085 1734Classe C 1734 7475Classe B 7475 9745Classe A 9745

Limits

Class EClass DClass CClass BClass A

* ajustado pela POF** atualizado a preços de julho de 2011


*Adjusted by POF**Updated to July 2011 Prices

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7

Classes Scenarios until 2014 Per Capita Familiar Income (R$) by State of the FederationIncome Levels in 2009 Income Variation 2001 a 2009

Menos de 10%d 10% 20%

Aumento Acumulado da RendaFamiliar Per Capita - 2001-2009

Renda Per Capita Média 2009226.72 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.01 de 10% a 20%

de 20% a 30%de 30% a 40%Mais de 40%

1374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87

Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE

Evolution of the Mean Per Capita Household Income by UFs1993, 1995, 2003, 2009 e 2014

1993

1995

2003

2009 2014

Renda Per Capita Média 1993226.717 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87


Renda Per Capita Média 2003226.72 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011347.01 - 1756.441756 44 2138 87


1756.44 - 2138.87


Renda Per Capita Média 2014 226.74 - 609.15609.15 - 991.58991.58 - 1374.011374.01 - 1756.441756.44 - 2138.87

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8

54,77

485,53

520,00

500,00

550,00

Median Per Capita Household Income

Future Scenarios

251,01

265,29

286,08

316,41

335,31

359,87

375,00

45

200,00

250,00

300,00

350,00

400,00

450,00

,

,

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


8 50 7,65

30,25

729,22

766,25

805,54

700

750

800

850

Mean per Capita Household Income

Future Scenarios

477,89

492,45

524,74

572,68

585,5

617

63

400

450

500

550

600

650

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2


Looking to the future is also to review expectations over time. We superestimated themean income growth in our forecasts but underestimate the inequality componentIn a way that the two errors cancel each other reasonably well, resulting in the fact thatthe ascendent trajectories of the upper classes are mantained. It increases the relativeweight of the inequality effect versus pure income effects in the distributional changeobserved.

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0,58298

0,5711

0,56823

56227

01

0 57

0,58

0,59

Gini Index

Future Scenarios ‐ Inequality

0,5

0,5550

0,5486

0,54476

0,52618

0,52008

0,51407

0,51

0,52

0,53

0,54

0,55

0,56

0,57

0,5

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


Composição de Classes 1992 a 2014*

The inequality impact: scenarios of the same

Prospective Classes Scenarios

Class Composition 1992 to 2014*

Composição de Classes 1992 a 2014 Avaliando o Impacto da Desigualdade**

growth with inequality fallingX no fall (that menas, just growth):The proportion of the classe C population in 2014 :60,1% with inequality fallingX 56,4% with pure growth.

The inequality‐effect considers the differences ofGrowth between states and the ones within

Class Composition 1992 to 2014*Assessing Inequality Impact

*crescimento de classes projetado de 2010 a 2014– com redução de desigualdade ** crescimento de classes projetado de 2010 a 2014 – com e sem redução de desigualdade

Growth between states and the ones withineach state (a separate model for each)


*class growth forecasted onwards 2010 to 2014 – with inequality reduction** class growth forecasted onwards 2010 to 2014 – with and withouti nequality reduction

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10

28,12

25,4

22,8

19,32

18,26

16,02

15,32

10,92

9,6

8,59

26,73

27,16

27,06

26,35

25,11

24,35

23,62

19,31

17,83

16,36

Classe E - % Classe D - %

Forecasts to 2014 (with inequality-effect and growth effect combined) – Economic Classes

8

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

56

9,73

41,81

44,94

46,9 49,22

50,45

56,89

58,75

60,19

6 71

8,32 9,4 9,74

10,41

10,61 12,87

13,82

14,85

Classe C - % Classe AB - %

37,5 39 4

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

7,6 7,7 8

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


28,30

25,50

22,83

19,40

18,34

15,97

15,14

10,72

9,39

8,41

27,95

25,3

22,78

19,23

18,17

16,06

15,5

1,11

9,8

775

10

15

20

25

30Homem

Mulher

Classe E Classe D

26,81

27,19

27,12

26,16

24,95

24,17

23,46

19,22

17,74

16,2326,65

27,14

27,01

26,52

25,26

24,52

23,78

19,4

7,92

4915

20

25

30

Homem

Future Scenarios of Classes opened by gender

11 9

8,7

0

5

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

17

16,4

10

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Mulher

Classe C Classe AB

7,37

39,68

41,78

45,08

46,95

49,45

50,81

57,20

59,09

60,57

,61

8,43

9,84

50

60

70

52

,64

8,27 9,35

9,76

10,41

10,59 12,86

13,77

14,79

2,87

13,85

14,91

10

12

14

16

37 3

37,73

39,78

41,85

44,8

46,85 49

50,1 56,

58 5

10

20

30

40

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Homem

Mulher

7, 7, 8

7,66

7,78

8,37 9,45

9,71

10,42

10,62 1

2

4

6

8

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Homem

Mulher


As an economic class is a household concept there is no difference between men andwomen, that’s why individual concepts such as education, income and happiness are more relevant in terms of gender .

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11

Evolution of the Population Share of Class ABC between Brazilian States 1993, 1995, 2003, 2009 e 2014

1993

1995

% Classe ABC 199513.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55

% Classe ABC 2003

% Classe ABC 199313.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55

2003

2009 2014

% Classe ABC 200313.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55

% Classe ABC 200913.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55

% Classe ABC 201413.01 - 28.3228.32 - 43.6343.63 - 58.9358.93 - 74.2474.24 - 89.55

Source: CPS/FGV from PNAD/IBGE microdata

Populational Pyramid and Economic Classes 2003, 2011 e 2014

65.879.496105.468.908 118.013.742

13.330.25022.526.223

29.116.200

In the 2003‐14 period, 52,1 million people will join class C and another 15,7 million onclasses AB. A total of 67,8 million, bigger than the UK population.Remarkably, given the contraction of consumer markets in developed countries.

96.205.81463.592.062 48.919.137

Classe DE Classe C Classe AB


y, g p

Time changes: Class C: + 40 million people in 2003‐11 and + 13 million in 2012‐14. Classes AB: + 9,2 million people from 2003 to 2011 and + 7,7 million from 2012 to 2014.

AB population will grow proportionally more than C: 29,3% and 11,9%, respectively.We’ll talk more and more about New Class AB in the future as we did up to now withrespect to the so called New Class C.

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12

8.825.702 12.930.328

13.330.250

Populational Pyramid and Economic Classes 1993, 1995 e 2003

92.868.780 83.296.780 96.205.814

45.646.118 55.359.38965.879.496



From the changes in 1993‐2003 period, a big one was between 1993 and 1995, originated by the Real Plan boom occured after July 1994.

Populational Pyramid and EconomicClasses 1993 e 2014

8 825 702

29.116.200

92.868.78048.919.137

45.646.118118.013.742

8.825.702



Changes in forecasted classes between 1993 and 2014 indicates 21 million peoplemigrating to the classes AB and 83 million to the class C.

These actually configure remarkable decades after the so called Brazilian lost 1980’s and beginning of 1990s.

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Future Happiness (Life Satisfaction in Five Years) ‐ 2015

Felicidade Futura ︵2015 ︶

2.8 - 44 - 5.195.19 - 6.396.39 - 7.587.58 - 8.78No Data

Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll

8,00

9,00

10,00

World Future Happiness ‐ 2015

Brazil is the world champion of Future Happiness in 2015 (actuallyfour‐times champion in the 4 CPS/FGV Researches on the topic)

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

0,00

1,00

Brazil

Panam

aColombia

Qatar

Swed

enDen

mark

United

Arab Emirates

Canada

Israel

New

Zealand

Angola

Switzerland

Ghana

South Africa

Chile

Malaw

iNetherlands

Trinidad

and Tobago

Nigeria

Argen

tina

Thailand

Belize

Mauritania

Guatem

ala

Mongolia

Peru

Italy

Singapore

Belgium

France

Kazakhstan

Cyprus

Honduras

Malaysia

Djibouti

Indonesia

Montenegro

Philippines

Laos

Nam

ibia

Spain

Congo

Jordan

Niger

Albania

Cam

eroon

Congo(Rep

ublic of the)

Nicaragua

Tunisia

Algeria

Côte d'Ivoire

Madagascar

Russian Fed

eration

Taiwan

Benin

China

Japan

Poland

Comoros

Ethiopia

Iraq

Mauritius

Ken

yaUkraine

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Estonia

Lithuania

Egypt

Latvia

Haiti

Togo

Greece

Portugal

Arm

enia

Maced

onia

Romania

Syrian

Arab Rep

ublic


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14

Future Felicity Index (FFI) World Rank – 2015 BRICS, PIIGS & BIGs

IFF Rank IFF RankBrazil 8.6 1 Mali 6.6 86Costa Rica 8.2 6 Congo 6.5 91Denmark 8.1 11 Turkey 6.5 96Ireland 8.0 16 Morocco 6.4 101Switzerland 7.8 21 Russian Federation 6.4 105U. Kingdom 7.7 26 Senegal 6.4 106South Africa 7.7 27 China 6.2 111Netherlands 7.6 31 Slovenia 6.2 116Austria 7.5 36 India 6.1 119Argentina 7.4 41 Iraq 6.1 121Uruguay 7.3 46 Sri Lanka 6.0 126Peru 7.2 51 Estonia 5.8 131Italy 7.1 56 Egypt 5.7 136France 7.0 61 Haiti 5.4 141Germany 7.0 62 Greece 5.3 145Honduras 6.9 66 Portugal 5.2 146Indonesia 6.8 71 Macedonia 5.0 151Bangladesh 6.7 76 Syrian Arab Republic 4.7 156Spain 6.7 81


Future Felicity Index (FFI)

• FFI allows us to reconcile two qualifications awarded to Brazil: country of the future and young country (because the future happiness falls with age see next slide)

• The “Brasileiro, Profissão Esperança” (Brazilian, ProfessionHope) is also the spirit of the new middle class, that life willimprove.

• The expectation of the nation is almost two points lower thanthe sum of happiness of each brazilian. The problem is more from Brazil than from each Brazilian.

• How can each Brazilian expect so much for his/her life and at• How can each Brazilian expect so much for his/her life and atthe same time give a grade so low to the life of all? The grade of all can’t overcome the nation mean grade.

• The Brazilian major problems were not (or are) individual, butcollective: inequality, inflation, informality, violence, lack ofdemocracy, corruption etc. We can evolve a lot as a society.

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15

Life Satisfaction with respect to different moments & Life Cycle (Age)

7

7.5

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79

Passado Presente Futuro

Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Poll microdata

Past Present Future

Who is expect higher happiness: males orfemales?In the World:

• Women report greater happiness than men: in the future (6.74 women X 6.69 men), in the present (5.35 women X 5.31 men) and in the past (4.94 from women against 4.92 from men).

• Single women are happier than married ones? Data indicates that singlewomen show mean future happiness of 7.28 against 6.68 of marriedones.On the other hand, unmarried women show lower levels of happiness(separated 6.57 and divorced 6.46). In the widows case, the means are lower: 5.6.

• Women with children under 15 years of age report greater life satisfactiont ti (7 02) th th h d ’t (6 73)expectation (7.02) than those who don’t (6.73).

• However, there is a particular age effect happening on people’s future happiness. The younger the person, more future happiness, which couldexplain the fact that unmarried are more optimistic than widows for example.

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16

After all, who is expects higher happiness: married women or single ones?

In the World: • Comparing women at the same age bracket (25 to 29 years). Data indicates

that single women have a mean future happiness of 7.4, against 7 frommarried. The “mismatched” show lower levels of happiness (both separatedand divorced have 6.6). In the widows case, the means are even lower 5.4.and divorced have 6.6). In the widows case, the means are even lower 5.4.

• There is evidence that future happiness of those that stay unmarried fallsmore as age increases. For example, at the 50 to 54 years bracket it falls to 6.2, against 6.4 of married, reversing positions.

• In order to compare with a llok on statistical significance, we ran a multinomial ordered logit model that informs us that taking females withth b f i hild li i t th t t ( llthe same age, number of minor children, living at the same country etc (allstatistically different between themselves) happiness expectation is in descending order (unmarried, married, consensual unions, separated, divorced and widow.

Felicidade Futura Fem.2 58 4

Gender, Geography and Future Happiness (2011), Life Satisfaction in 5 Years, by gender

2.58 - 44 - 5.195.19 - 6.396.39 - 7.587.58 - 8.98No Data

Females

Felicidade Futura Masc.2.58 - 44 - 5.195.19 - 6.396.39 - 7.587.58 - 8.98No Data

Source: Center for Social Policies – CPS/FGV from Gallup World Pollmicrodata

Males

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17

IFF Rank IFF Rank IFF Rank Mundo

6.74 - 6.69 - 0.05

- Americas

7.22 - 7.1 - 0.12

- brazil 8.98 1 8.56 1 0.42 0

denmark 8.51 3 8.52 2 -0.01 1

ireland 8.42 4 8.23 5 0.19 -1

switzerland 7.96 18 7.67 24 0.29 -6

united kingdom 7.89 22 7.68 23

0.21 -1

argentina 7.82 23 7.5 29 0.32 -6

costa rica 7.78 24 7.86 17 -0.08 7

austria 7.76 25 7.63 25 0.13 0

france 7.73 26 7.72 21 0.01 5

netherlands 7.67 29 7.44 34 0.23 -5

egypt 7.32 43 6.71 69 0.61 -26

IFF

2011

gyp

spain 7.28 45 7.43 36 -0.15 9

italy 7.28 44 6.94 54 0.34 -10

morocco 7.27 46 6.95 53 0.32 -7

senegal 7.21 47 7.01 50 0.2 -3

honduras 7.17 51 7.25 43 -0.08 8

mali 7.13 52 7.46 31 -0.33 21

uruguay 7.12 53 7.08 48 0.04 5

south africa 6.87 61 6.8 63 0.07 -2

greece 6.81 62 6.2 92 0.61 -30

india 6.76 64 6.87 57 -0.11 7

germany 6.67 71 6.91 56 -0.24 15

peru 6.62 75 6.68 71 -0.06 4

china 6.61 76 6.44 85 0.17 -9

indonesia 6.57 79 6.23 91 0.34 -12

Women

X

sri lanka 6.32 89 6.31 87 0.01 2

turkey 6.26 92 5.44 122 0.82 -30

bangladesh 6.16 94 5.85 109 0.31 -15

estonia 6.37 88 6.47 83 -0.1 5

russia 6.1 101 6.3 88 -0.2 13

slovenia 5.89 104 6.47 84 -0.58 20

portugal 5.68 113 6.02 102 -0.34 11

macedonia 5.48 123 5.5 121 -0.02 2

iraq 5.46 124 5.4 124 0.06 0

haiti 5.01 130 5.18 127 -0.17 3

zimbabwe 4.04 132 4.03 132 0.01 0


Men

Females Males Difference

Who is happier?: Brazilian females or males?

• The Brazilian women are happier than men in the future(8.98 her against 8.56 his) and in the present(6.73 heragainst 6.54 his).

• An statistical model which shows that no country hasfuture happiness levels (with and without statisticalcontrols (age, etc)) higher than that found in Brazil.

• No other country reveals future happiness genderdifferences more favorable to females than Brazil.

• Concluding: Brazil is not only the world champion infuture happiness on female and male leagues, but alsowith respect to differences between genders, with womenon top.

21/3/2012

18

Future Happiness Simulator


http://www.fgv.br/cps/bd/ncm2014/IndiceFelicidade_eng/index.htm

Why women are happier than men in Brazil?Mean Schooling – age over 25 years:

89 7,04 7,23

7,37

7,5

8

5,06

5,16

5,28 5,44

5,50

5,64

5,69 5,94 6,11

6,24 6,39

6,50 6,70

6,84 7,01 7,16

4,91 5,06 5,25 5,4 5,51

5,64

5,75 6,05 6,22 6,37 6,54

6,66 6,

4,5

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

Homem

Mulher

Males

Females

4

,

1992

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

There was a reversion in adult population schooling by gender: was 5,1 in 1992 (his), against 4,91 (her) and passes to 7,2 (his) against 7,4 (her) in 2009.1996 was the year females overtook males


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Mean Individual Income:: Income

37,68

38,02

40,63

44,45

68 ,56

77

0 8 ,06

41,05

58,62

94,72

06,54

804

904

571,85

611,01 73 73 74 74

671,6

691,

682,

637,80

651,8

688,

74 75

79

80

215,49

224,26

296,83

313,41

316,41

328,13

312,53

340,05

348,66

331,38

347,62

376,04

419,39

426,95

455,31

468,31

4

104

204

304

404

504

604

704

804

Homem

MulherFemale

Male

1992

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

There was a reduction in the income differential between men and women. It was 62% in 1992, and it is 42% in 2009.


Other Income Sources (Individual)

487,08

519,76 631,32

629,82

631,57

618,54

550,17

569,31

559,34

520,66

531,49

558,64

603,58

623,36

649,94

658,65

304

404

504

604

704

804

Homem

Mulher

Males

Labor

Female

84,77

91,25

106,36

108,20

109,06

125,91

121,51

122,25

123,43

117,14

120,39

129,42

37,47

135,26

144,78

147,89

3 8 1 22

5,96

141,61

138,57

152,51

155,6

104

124

144

164

157,1

160,37

216,42

228,16

227,59

231,16

214,93

233,92

238,18

222,07

231,4

250,08

277,78

288,38

302,8

312,71

4

104

204

1992

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Non Labor

13 1 1

58,39

63,89

80,41

85,25

88,82

96,97

97,6

106,13

110,4

109,3

116,2

125

4

24

44

64

84

1992

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Homem

Mulher


Males

Females

1996 was the year females overtook males in other income sources Bolsa Familia, Retirementbenefits

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Income Variation

2001 2009 Var

Mean Individual IncomeMean Individual Income

Male 691.56 806.54 16.63%

Female 340.05 468.31 37.72%

Labor Income

Male 569.31 658.65 15.69%

Female 233.92 312.71 33.68%

Income from Other Sources

Male 122.25 147.89 20.97%

Female 106.13 155.6 46.61%


15 a 60 years – Total

Gender

Income from

Hour‐Wage(Positive

Income) byYears ofSchooling

Years ofSchooling

WorkedHours

EAPOccupation

RateParticipationRate on Labor

Labor Income Decomposition

Category YearIncome fromall Labors

Schooling Schooling Hours Rate Rate on Labor Marketx x x x

Man

2011 1264,88 3,98 9,74 44,02 0,91 0,81

2003 647,88 2,51 8,61 44,96 0,82 0,81

AccumulatedGrowthRate(%) 95,23% 58,57% 13,12% ‐2,09% 10,98% 0%

2011 693,6 3,06 10,45 39,97 0,88 0,62

2003 314 65 1 89 9 3 39 75 0 76 0 59

Woman

2003 314,65 1,89 9,3 39,75 0,76 0,59

AccumulatedGrowthRate(%) 120,44% 61,9% 12,37% 0,55% 15,79% 5,08%

Source: CPS/FGV from PME/IBGE microdata

In the 2003‐11 period, the labor income differential falls because of the wage‐effect, but mainly because of the greater “effort to labor” (working journey, occupation andlabor participation)

21/3/2012

21

Learn more about the Center for Social Policies researches at www.fgv.br/cps

NewMiddle Class

•Visit the Saraiva website

Marcelo Neri releases the book published by Editora Saraiva

• March 7th, 2012, Wednesday, from 19h.• Bolsa de Valores (BOVESPA)• Rua XV de Novembro, 275, 1º andar, Centro ‐ São Paulo ‐ SP•• March 9th, 2012 ‐ Friday, from 19h.• Livraria da Travessa (Travessa Bookstore) in Shopping Leblon• Av. Afrânio de Melo Franco, 290 ‐ Leblon ‐ Rio de Janeiro – RJ

Documents

Backto theCountry ofthe Future - cps.fgv.br‡ÃO_INGLES_I.pdf · Source: CPS/FGV fromthePNAD/IBGE microdata *Adjustedby POF **Updated to July 2011 Prices. ... 2003 2004 2005 2006