1

Backcasting and a Dozen Actions for 70% CO2 emissions

reductions by 2050 in Japan

Designed by Hajime Sakai

Junichi Fujino (NIES)Scenario Team

1. If we cannot go to LCS,…2. LCS offers higher QOL with

less energy demand and lower-carbon energy supply

3. LCS needs good design, early action, and innovations

Japan LCS symposium, Feb 12, 2009, Tokyo

2

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

2020 20502000

Long-term target year

Release of A

IM result

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend

Forecasting

Back-casting

Normative target world

Reference future world

Service demand change

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredPolicy

intervention and Investment

required intervention policy and measures

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Checkingyear(2015)

Checkingyear(2025)

Requ

ired

int

erve

ntion

3. We need“Innovation”

to realize visions

2. We need“Visions”

1.”Target”is tough

50% reductionsIn the world

CO2 emissions＝PopActivity Energy CO2

× Pop Activity Energy× ×

＋ ＋ ＋

Changerate

CO2emissionChange rate

PopChange rate

ActivityPop

change rate

EnergyActivity

change rate

CO2

Energychange rate

＝

integral

differential

Total

Change rate＝speed

Total amount

Per capitaactivity

EnergyIntensity

CarbonIntensity

How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions

-0.5%/year 1.5%/year-2~3%/year31%/year

Y%/year X%/year

-3~4%/year

60-80% reductions

Kaya identity

The case of Japan LCS

4

Required improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Germany

France

U.K.

ScenarioB

Scenario A

Historical trend

Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y)

Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity (w/o CCS)Carbon Intensity (CCS only)

Japan

Japan

Keep double speed to improve carbon and energy intensity compared as that of the historical record!

60-80% reductions towards 2050

Depicting socio-

economic visions in 2050

Estimating energy service

demands

Exploring innovations for energy demands

and energy supplies

Quantifying energy

demand and supplyto estimate

CO2emissions

Checking potentials for energy

supply

Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)

Step1

Step2

Step3

Step5

Step4

Achieving energy-related CO2

emissions target 5

6

Vision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-orientedUrban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Visions Visions we prepared two different we prepared two different

but likely future societies for Japanbut likely future societies for Japan

Akemi Imagawa

7

We prepared models to quantify the We prepared models to quantify the LCSsLCSs

Element models;1) Snapshot models;

Inter-sector and Macro Economic modelEnergy technology bottom-up modelsEnergy supply model Transportation demand model

2) Transition models;Population and household modelBuilding dynamics model

Integration tool;Snapshot Integration Tool (SSI)

7

8

Building Dynamics ModelBuilding Dynamics Model

• Enhancement of building insulation is very effective countermeasures. 60% of the heating demand from the residential sector can be cut down, if appropriate insulation systems are installed. Besides, configuration of buildings in urban and rural area affects social energy efficiency greatly.

Number of dwelling stock (year T-1)

[Region, types of buildings, construction material, insulation level,

construction year]

Number of new dwellings(year T)

Survived number of dwellings(year T)

[Region, types of buildings, construction material,

insulation level, construction year]

Number of households

Unoccupied rate

Share by type of building

Share by construction material

Share by region

Population and Household Model

Household production and lifestyle model

Renovation rate

Survival rat

Number of dwelling stock(year T)

[Region, types of buildings, construction material,

insulation level, construction year] ：endogenous variable ：exogenous variable

Share by insulation level

Number of new dwellings(year T)

[Region, types of buildings, construction material, insulation level]

Bottom-up engineering

model

• In order to take account these factors, a model of building dynamics (BDM) was developed.

• It is a cohort model with a spatial resolution of climate zones, four heat insulation levels, four residential building types, and six commercial building types.

Flowchart of BDM (residential)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pop

ulat

ion

(Tho

usan

d) 80-60-7940-5920-390-19

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Others

Parent-Children

One-Person

Couple-Only

Couple-Children

Type

of

hous

ehold

(%)

(Million)

age

Projection Japan population and households in scenario A

Step2

year 2000 2050A B

Population (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 43.7 35.8Average number of household 2.71 2.19 2.38Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1

9

10

Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050

Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%) Average number of person per household

2.7 2.2 2.4

GDP Tril.JPY 519 1,080 (208%) 701 (135%)Share of production primary % 2% 1% 2% secondary % 28% 18% 20% tertiary % 71% 80% 79%

Office floor space Mil.m2 1654 1,934 (117%) 1,718 (104%)Building dynamics Model &Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model

Travel Passenger volume bill. p・km 1,297 1045 (81%) 963 (74%) Private car % 53% 32% 51% Public transport % 34% 52% 38% Walk/bycycle % 7% 7% 8%Freight transport volume bill. t・km 570 608 (107%) 490 (86%)

100 126 (126%) 90 (90%) Steel production Mil.t 107 67 (63%) 58 (54%) Etylen production Mil.t 8 5 (60%) 3 (40%) Cement production Mil.t 82 51 (62%) 47 (57%) Paper production Mil.t 32 18 (57%) 26 (81%)( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000

year unit 2000 A B

Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model

model

Population and Householdmodel

Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model

Transportation demandmodel & Inter-sector andMacro Economic Model

Industrial production index

2050

10

High efficiency lighting

【eg LED lighting】

Photovoltaic

Monitoring systemequipped with appliances

Eco-life education

Reduce 60% warmingenergy demand,share 100%

11

34-69MW(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

COP (coefficients of performance=8), share 100%

Super high efficiency air conditioner

Solar heatingDiffusion rate: 20-60%

（currently 8%）

Heat-pump heatingCOP＝5share 30-70%

Fuel cellshare 0-20%

High-insulation

Reduce 1/2 energy demandShare 100%

Stand-by energy reduction

Reduce 1/3 energydemand, share 100%

LCS house in 2050Comfortable and

energy-saving house

rooftop gardening

5

Utilizing solar power

High efficiency appliances reduce energy demand and

support comfortable and safe lifestyle

Good information foreconomy and environmentmakes people’s behavior

low-carbon

10-20% energy demand reduction

Visions Visions andandInnovationsInnovations

120.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

CO

P (C

oeffi

cien

t of p

erfo

rman

ce)

Best

Average

Worst

Historical

Projected energy efficiency improvement: Projected energy efficiency improvement: AirAir--conditioners for cooling and heatingconditioners for cooling and heating

AISTMOE

METI METI

Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program.

13

17

12

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

toe)

Change of the numbersof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of servicedemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption

H2 consumption

Solar consumption

Biomass consumption

Gas consumption

Oil consumption

Energy consumption in2000

Residential sector Energy reduction potential: 40-50%

Hi-Insulated housing

Energy Effiency

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

InnovationsInnovations

14

UK, February 2005“40% House”

60% reductions

Japan, June 2005Guidance for Self-sustained Residential, 50% reductions

15

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Industrial ResidentialCommercial

Trans. Prv.Trans. Frg.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2000(Actual)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

Decrease ofenergy demand

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 30-40％Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 50％Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 40-50％Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％

16

Fuel CellVehicle

Transportation

ConsumerLarge-scaleSupplier

ElectricityLarge-scaleRenewables

Nuclear

Renewables

Fossil Fuel

DistributedRenewables

Heat

Heat Pump

Large-scaleStorage

Electrolysis

GridElectricity

Hydrogen

Biofuel

StationaryFuel Cell

Small-scaleStorage

What is Low Carbon What is Low Carbon Energy Supply System?Energy Supply System?

CCS (Carbon Capture and

Storage)http://2050.nies.go.jp Fujino (2005)

17

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Solar and Wind

100 200 300 400 500 600

2000(Actural)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind

And we need low-carbon energy.- Renewable energy- Nuclear energy- Fossil fuel + CCS

18

70%redu

ction

621

90

36

77

6124

1013

38

97

28

17

41

36CCS

Carbon CaptureStorage

Change of activity

1990

 CO

2 Em

ission

2000

 CO

2 Em

ission

2050

 CO

2 Em

ission

Change of activity

Improvem

ent o

f carbon

intensity

 of ene

rgy supp

ly

Improvem

ent o

f carbon

intensity

 of end

‐use

Improvem

ent o

f en

ergy

intensity

 of end

‐use

Redu

ction 

of dem

and

Energy dem

andsector

Energy sup

ply sector

Indu

stry

Transportatio

nRe

side

ntial &

 commercial

Energy sup

ply

Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction of service demand

Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)

・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

・Efficient heat pump air‐conditioner, Efficient water heater,  Efficient lighting equipment

・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All‐electric house・Photovoltaic

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service・Widespread use of motor‐driven vehicle such aselectric vehicle and fuel‐cell electric vehicle

・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy

・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply

・Farm products produced and consumed in season 

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven SocietyDemand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳwith moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050

19

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario B: Slow Nature-oriented SocietyDemand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋Renewableswith moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050

21

24

63

82

40

24

1314

16

35

23

34

40

5

214

24

1314

16

35

23

34

40

5

214

Improvem

ent o

f carbon

intensity

 of ene

rgy supp

ly

Improvem

ent o

f carbon

intensity

 of end

‐use

Improvem

ent o

f en

ergy

intensity

 of end

‐use

Energy dem

andsector

Energy sup

ply sector

70%redu

ction

1990

 CO

2 Em

ission

2000

 CO

2 Em

ission

2050

 CO

2 Em

ission

Change of activity

Indu

stry

Transportatio

nRe

side

ntial &

 commercial

Energy sup

ply

Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity

Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity

Change of activity

・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production equipment

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

・Efficient heat pump air‐conditioner, Efficient water heater,  Efficient lighting equipment

・Expanding biomass energy use in home・Diffusion of solar water heating and photovoltaic on the roof

・Shortening trip distances for commuting through intensive land use

・Infrastructure for pedestrians and bicycle riders(sidewalk, bikeway, cycle parking)

・Widespread use of hybrid vehicle・Expanding biofuels・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Expanding share of both advanced gas combined cycle and biomass generation

・Decrease of electricity demand

・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)

・Slowing of final demand by breaking away from physical affluence mind‐set, Reduction of war material production, Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Promoting seasonal local food

20

ToTo achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, we investigated achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, we investigated -- which options should be selected,which options should be selected,-- when options should be introduced,when options should be introduced,-- how much of each option should be introduced at each how much of each option should be introduced at each

stage,stage,with reference of candidatewith reference of candidate options as prepared.options as prepared.Current society

Economic activityCO2 Emission

CO2

CO2

Low carbon society

Economicactivity

CO2

BaU society

70% reductiontarget

Technology, infrastructure,

institution, management options

Economic activity

Actions

ActionsActions

2050 Society

2000 2050

21

1. Comfortable and Green Built EnvironmentEfficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings.

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate AppliancesUse of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local FoodSupply of seasonal and safe low-carbon localfoods for local cuisine

4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and renewable buildings materials and products.

5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry Businesses aiming at creating and operating in low carbon market. Supplying low carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems.

12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary contributions.

6. Swift and Smooth LogisticsNetworking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure

7. Pedestrian Friendly City DesignCity design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport

Press release on May 22, 2008A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies

Residential/commercial sector actions

8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants

Energy supply sector actions

Industrial sector actions 9. Local Renewable Resources for Local DemandEnhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others.

10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure

11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational ChoicesVisualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers

Cross-sector actions

Transportation sector actions

22

Low-Carbon Residential/Commercial Sectors

1. Comfortable & green built environment

Keep warm/cool air in the building by active solar system and by changing building structure.

2. Anytime, anywhere appropriate appliances

Rental services relieve the burden of initial cost of high efficiency equipments, and promote service supply independent from manufacture.

12. Low carbon society leadership

Citizens understand that low‐carbon society promotes safe and cozy life, and undertake various actions towards that end.

CO2CO2 CO2CO2CO2CO2

11. Labeling to encourage smart and rational choices

Disclosing the amount of CO2 emission makes consumers select low‐carbon products in affordable way.

4. Sustainable building materials

Actively use of wood feedstock and wood manufactures.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food

Consumers select low‐carbon seasonal food and can get the information about farm producers.

10. Next generation fuels

Simultaneous supply of heat and electricity by fuel cell.

9. Local renewable resources for local demand

Active selection ofregional solar/wind energies.

5. Environmentally enlightened business and industry

Change of office space design and use fully to low‐carbon style.

8. Low‐carbon electricity

Selection of low‐carbon electricity such as renewable/nuclear energy and thermal power with CCS.

23

Constraints Analysis

•Constraints Analysis is to identify the gap between current situation and visions described in “Future objective”

•options can be defined as countermeasures to overcome the constraints•Various types of constraints should be taken into account including;

Initiation constraintsDissemination speed constraints (Cost, amenity, and efficiency)Upper limit constraints (Physical, Social, and Technological )

•Constraints Analysis is to identify the gap between current situation and visions described in “Future objective”

•options can be defined as countermeasures to overcome the constraints•Various types of constraints should be taken into account including;

Initiation constraintsDissemination speed constraints (Cost, amenity, and efficiency)Upper limit constraints (Physical, Social, and Technological )

FutureObjectives

CurrentSituation

Low Low CarbonCarbonSocietySociety

TodayToday

Technical constraintsTechnical constraints

Economical constraintsEconomical constraints

Social constraintsSocial constraints

Informational constraintsInformational constraints

Future Objectives[Solar and Wind Utilization Design]

[Household Finance-friendly Environmental Efficiency]

[Nurturing of Worker Skills; Information Transmission]

[Solar and Wind Utilization Design]

[Household Finance-friendly Environmental Efficiency]

[Nurturing of Worker Skills; Information Transmission]

Implementation Barriers and Strategic Steps

[Standardization Period]

[Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period]

[Standardization Period]

[Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period]

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

24

25

Identification of necessary actions

Diffusion of green design building

Certification & registration of labeling

Incentives to the higher performance building

Organizing training classes and events

Establishment of simplified evaluation

method

dissemination of diagnosis practitioners

Lack in information of environmental performance of the building

Relatively high cost compared to general building

Lack in knowledge of regional specific climatic conditions

Too complicated calculation required

Lack in personnel who can implement

the calculation

Indirect optionsDirect options

Barrier breaking

Step by step strategiesStep by step strategies

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

Selection of residential buildings with high environmental efficiency. Commission of low carbon design to architects and construction companies.Contribution of Building Owners

Development of low carbon architectural design methods. Investing for technology development in insulation technologies, etc. Sustenance of regional worker skills. Contribution of Architects, etc.

Complex energy-saving performance metrics, high calculation costs, insufficient personnel

Complex energy-saving performance metrics, high calculation costs, insufficient personnel

Insufficient incentives for choosing energy-saving residences and buildings

Insufficient incentives for choosing energy-saving residences and buildings

Residential household energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)Building floor area energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)

Residential household energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)Building floor area energy demand：-40% (from FY2000 level)

Barriers

Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction PeriodStandardization Period

26

Dissemination of diagnosis practitioners for energy-saving and CO2 reduction efficiencies

Organizing training classes and events for passing on knowledge of architectural technologies

Establishment and review of long-term energy-saving standard targets for buildings.

Introduction and expansion of residence and building labeling system for environmental efficiency (new building, renovation, mandatory indication upon leasing)

Establishment of simplified evaluation method for environmental efficiency of residences and buildings

Implementation and expansion of tax breaks and low interest loan financing based on the environmental efficiency label

Solar and wind utilization design

Finance-friendly environmental

efficiency

Nurturing of worker skills & information

transmission

Future ObjectivesBarriers

FutureObjectives

2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000

27

BackcastingBackcasting model (BCM) for Japanmodel (BCM) for Japan’’s LCS projects LCS project

27

BackcastingBackcasting model (BCM)model (BCM)（multi-sector dynamic optimization model)

MODEL MECHANISM• Combining mechanisms and

information described in element models, as a system of linear equations.

• Identify optimal path of infrastructure and capital investment in order to maximize cumulative social utility from 2005 to 2050 under the following constraints:Balancing demand-and-supply of goods and servicesBalancing of energy services and energy demand-and-supplyBalancing of demand-and-supply of laborBalancing of international paymentSupply of just enough amounts of infrastructure, buildings, and production capital stock

PURPOSE

Analyze required schedule and conditions of introducing policy measures, and quantify roadmaps for achieving the CO2 reduction target

Element models

Description and quantification of dynamic characteristics and changing mechanism of social / energy services with a bottom-up approach

1. Transition modelsPopulation / household dynamic modelMacro-economic modelInfrastructure / buildingdynamic model

2. Snap shot modelsHousehold production /lifestyle modelPassenger / freight transportation demand modelEnergy supply and demand balance model Energy technology bottom-up model

28

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

W orld

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO

2 per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-C

/cap

)

GermanyMETI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

29

JapanJapan‐‐UK Joint Research ProjectUK Joint Research ProjectSustainable LowSustainable Low‐‐Carbon Societies (Carbon Societies (LCSsLCSs))

Former Japanese Environment Minister Yuriko Koike and UK Ambassador to Japan Sir. Graham Fry announced the launch of the joint research of the Low‐Carbon Society.

Launch of the Project : 16th Feb 2006 (Anniversary of Kyoto Protocol)                

Graham Fry                                  Yuriko Koike

Tokyo

(Co‐chairs : Shuzo Nishioka(NIES) and Jim Skea(UKERC))

WS: 19 countries, 54 expertsSymposium: around 500 people A long‐term perspective focusing on the need for 

urgent action to reduce CO2 towards 2050.Achievement of LCS will involve the development and deployment of low carbon technologies, changes in lifestyles and institutions, and need to align with sustainable development.

In 2006, the Governments of Japan and UK established an innovative joint research project with participation from a diverse group of some 20 countries including most G8+5 countries, Asian countries (Australia, Korea, Thailand, Nepal, Malaysia, Indonesia), African countries, and others. 

1st Workshop:  June 2006   Developing Visions for a LCS through Sustainable Development

30

http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html

31

Tokyo

2nd Workshop: June 2007  Achieving a Sustainable LCSA wide range of stakeholders‐ from government, business, and civil society need to be engaged in findingsolutions. A significant share of GHG is due to cities. Effective Action can be and is being undertaken.

London

Creation of appropriate incentives for business using long‐term policy signals to strengthen carbon pricing.Expanding financial flows, international cooperation in low‐carbon approaches.Building trust between countries and stakeholders though enhancement of communication is important.

30 countries,100 participants

3rd Workshop： Feb 2008  Roadmap to Low Carbon World

WS: 18 countries, 79 expertsSymposium: 273 participants 

“Call for Action” and WS3 “Executive Summary”were delivered to G20 in Chiba, March 14‐16 2008.

G8 Environmental Ministerial Meeting, May 2007

G8 Japan, July 2008

G8 Gleneagles 2005

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July 7-9 2008, Hokkaido, Japan

Japanese Former PM outlines green 'Fukuda vision‘ on 9th June 2008 pledged to cut of 60-80 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions based on current levels by 2050 in Japan.

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Summary of the G8 Programon July 8, 2008

(2) Environment and Climate Change(a) Prime Minister Fukuda stated at the beginning that this was a very

important summit, one that should determine whether humanity canmove toward a low-carbon society, severing its dependence on fossil fuels and addressing challenges including global warming and resource depletion countries.

(b) Long-term GoalWith respect to the goal of achieving at least 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050, the G8 leaders agreed to seek to share and adopt it with all Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

(c) Mid-term GoalsIn order to achieve absolute emission reductions in all developed nations, G8 leaders agreed to implement ambitious economy-wide mid-term goals.

(d) Sectoral Approach(e) Climate Investment Funds

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Chair’s SummaryG8 Environment Ministers Meeting

Kobe, Japan May 24-26, 2008Transitioning to low-carbon societies and establishing an international research networkon low-carbon societies5. To realize such long-term goals, it is necessary to change the current socio-economic structures and transition to low-carbon societies. In so doing, there was general recognition of the importance of all the countries to have a clear vision of low-carbon societies. Strong support for establishing an international research network of institutions involved in the research on low-carbon societies was shown by a number of countries, and other countries also expressed their support for the consideration of its establishment. G8 Italy, 2009

LCS-Research NetworkLinkages and interactions between research activities and policy

processes for science-based policy making towards LCS

Information exchange and research cooperation amongst research institutions of any CRS related fields, Dialogues with policy-makers, businesses, citizens and others to share possible visions on future LCS,Contribution to international political processes on climate change including the G8 process by providing research outcomes and recommendations.

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LCS-RNet

ResearchersPolicy-makers

Other stakeholders

G8 Japan Initiatives

1st workshop will be held in Italy, April 2009

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2008 AIM Training Workshop

Oct 20-31, 2008 at Tsukuba

We support country-wise LCS modeling through SD for Asia-Pacific and the world

- We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1997 -

India China Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia BrazilTaiwan,

China USA JapanRussiaSouth Africa

JapanLow Carbon

Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

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CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Gt-C LCS Scenario

ChinaJiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China), Low-Carbon Options in ChinaEMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006

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P.R. SHUKLA et al., Low-carbon society scenarios for India, CLIMATE POLICY 8 (2008) S156–S176

India

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ChinaChina

IndiaIndia

USAUSA

UKUK DesignDesignJapan Japan

toward toward LCS LCS JapanJapan

ThaiThailandland

EUEU

Global Launch of Social/Technological

Innovation to develop LCSsThis is business chance!

Call for Action,delivered to G20, 14-16March 2008 in Chiba

Japan LowJapan Low--Carbon Society (LCS)Carbon Society (LCS)through Sustainable Developmentthrough Sustainable Development

Japan LCS study (FY2004-2008)Global Environment Research Fund by MOEJ60research experts from NIES, Kyoto Univ.,

TIT, Univ. of Tokyo, and others

http://2050.nies.go.jpOrganized by MOEJ, DefraFacilitated by NIES,UKERC, Tyndall Centre1st workshop in Tokyo, June 14-16 20062nd workshop in London, June 13-15 20073rd workshop in Tokyo, Feb 13-15 2008

Japan-UK LCS studyinvite all countries to structure global LCS

Further Information: http://2050.nies.go.jp

AfricaAfrica

LatinLatinAmericaAmerica

OceaniaOceania

JapanLow Carbon

Society 2050

COP side event“Low-Carbon Asia”, Dec 8, 2007@Bali

Dec 8, 2008@Poznan

AIM Training Workshop since19972006, 2007,2008 on LCS @Tsukuba

（Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

LCS policy packages based on scientific findings

for G8 Japan in 2008

CollaborativeLCS research

in Asia andfurther

Further Information:Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs) (2008.6)

Special Issue on “Modelling Long- Term Scenarios for Low-Carbon Societies” CLIMATE POLICY 8 (2008)

Call for Action and Executive Summary of the Third Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project on “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society” (2008.3)

All materials can be downloaded at the“Japan Low-Carbon Society 2050”homepage: http://2050.nies.go.jp Japan

Low CarbonSociety 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp40

Contact person: Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp)