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B R I C SFOUNDRY FORUM
RUSSIA 2015
B R A Z I L and Foundry IndustryOverview / Trends
Remo De SimonePresidentBrazilian Foundry Association - ABIFA
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil4) Foreign Trade5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
BRAZIL IS THE LARGEST COUNTRY IN SOUTH AMERICA
REPRESENTS: • 48% IN TERRITORY• 51% OF POPULATION• 48% OF GDP
ONLY BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA HAVE A ESTABLISHED FOUNDRY INDUSTRY.
BRAZIL - 2014POPULATION: 200.4 MAREA: 8.5 M km2
GDP: 2.35 TRILLION US$7th WORLD ECONOMYFLEET OF VEHICLES: 41.7 M
Brazil – GDP EvolutionBillion US$/ano
560 509 560 670893
1,1081,396
1,6951,667
2,209
2,6132,412 2,391 2,353
1,809*
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
*2015 estimated
Source: BACEN
Brazil – GDP Evolution (%)without inflation of the period
*estimated
4,4
1,3
3,1
1,2
5,7
3,14,0
6,05,0
-0,2
7,6
3,9
1,82,7
0,1
-1,8
0,2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: BACEN
Brazil – Inflation Evolution (%)accumulated per year
*estimated
6,0
7,7
12,5
9,3
7,66,7
3,14,5
5,94,3
5,9 6,55,8 5,9 6,4
9,3
5,4
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
Source: BACEN
Participation of the Industry in GDP (%)
14,0
15,2
14,4
17,916,7 16,6
15,0
13,911,5
10,9
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: IBGE/ABIFA
0,41
0,49
0,63 0,61
0,57
0,65
0,41
0,51
0,47
0,49
0,36
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Manufacturing Industry Foundry Industry
World Ranking – GDP(Trillion US$)
8
2014 2015 ( * )1st USA 17.419 18.125 1st 2nd China 10.380 11.212 2nd3rd Japan 4.616 4.210 3rd4th Germany 3.860 3.413 4th5th UK 2.945 2.853 5th6th France 2.847 2.470 6th 7th BRAZIL 2.353 2.308 7th INDIA8th Italy 2.148 1.843 8th9th INDIA 2.050 1.809 9th BRAZIL10th Russia 1.857 1.615 10th Canada
( * ) PREVIEWSource: BACEN
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures
2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil4) Foreign Trade5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Electric PowerHydro Generation is the main source in Brazil
95.7 GW Install Capac Source:ANEEL/FIRJAN
Natural Resources- Electricityfor its continental dimensions, hydro generation is the main source in Brazil
- Iron OreBrazil is the third largest producer and also has the third reserve of iron ore
- Bauxite OreBauxite ore (aluminum) - also in this case, we are the third largest producer and have the third reserve of bauxite ore for the production of primary aluminum
Brazil has a surplus in its main raw materials
0102030405060708090
100
Pig Iron Aluminum Ferroalloys
100 100 100
50,3
36,5 40
production exports
Source: ABAL/ABRAFE/SINDIFER
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures2) Infrastructure and Raw Material
3) Cast Metal in Brazil 4) Foreign Trade5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Cast metal world production (ton)
2013 2012 • 1 º CHINA 44,500,000 42,500,000• 2 º USA 12,250,000 12,824,960• 3 º INDIA 9,810,000 9,344,400• 4 º JAPAN 5,538,037 5,342,837• 5 º GERMANY 5,186,727 5,214,114• 6 º RUSSIA 4,100,000 4,300,000*• 7 º BRAZIL 3,071,400 2,859,898• 8 º KOREA 2,562,000 2,435,800• 9 º ITALY 1,970,968 1,959,680• 10 o FRANCE 1,748,166 1,800,156
Source: Modern Casting/Dec 2014* 2011 data
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Brazil 3.087 3.250 3.355 2.297 3.241 3.344 2.860 3.071 2.737 2.450
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
Thou
sand
ton
2015 previewSource: ABIFA
The crisis of 2008-09 had a strong effect on our countryProduction 2006-15
quick analysis of cast metal production in Brazil
Total production2,737.2 th ton (2014)
Non ferrous217.5 th ton
Source: ABIFA
61%
34%
South and Southeast Region in Brazil represent 95% of all production
Sales of casting are concentrated in automotive industry
AUTOMOTIVE 58%
INFRASTRUC6%
CAP GOODS 13%
EXPORTS15%
SIDERURGY2%
OTHER 6%
Source: ABIFA
Worldwide Vehicle Production(thousand units)
2013• 1 º China 22,117• 2 º USA 11,046• 3 º Japan 9,630
• 4 º Germany 5,718• 5 º South Korea 4,521• 6 º India 3,881
• 7 º Brazil 3,712• 8 º Mexico 3,052• 9 º Thailand 2,457• 10 o Canada 2,380
Source: ANFAVEA
5th automotive world market
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Brazil 2612 2980 3216 3183 3382 3416 3403 3713 3146 2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000Th
ousa
nd u
nit
Brazil - vehicle production
Source: ANFAVEA - Brazil 2015 preview
(15,3)%
(20,5)%)
Countries of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) have a great dependence of Automotive
Industry
PARTICIPATION IN PRODUCTION
ARGENTINA 57%
BRAZIL 58%
MEXICO 75 – 80%
Source: ABIFA, CIFRA, SMF
Shows a potential to be exploited to reach the developed countries (2014)
INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE
ARGENTINA 3.7
BRAZIL 5.4
MEXICO 3.6
INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE
GERMANY 1.7
ITALY 1.6
SPAIN 1.9
FRANCE 1.7
USA 1.3
Source: ANFAVEA
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil
4) Foreign Trade5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Exports 1095 1374 1354 1494 763 1185 1521 1362 1233 1216 1150Imports 159 300 559 808 1926 1096 1260 2061 2250 1714 400
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Evolution of foreign trade in Brazil
unit: Million US$ (2005-15
2015 preview
Source: ABIFA
Brazil 55% of total exports going to EUA – US$ - %Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous
Source: ABIFA,
Brazil 27% of total imports come from ASIA – US$ - %Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous
Source: ABIFA,
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Current Situation4) Cast Metal in Brazil
5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Necessary Investments in Foundry Industry in Brazil in the next years (2015 – 2019)
From 2015 until 2019 the Foundry Sector is expected to invest 880million dollars to increase the production of 400 thousand tonsneeded to meet the growth of sectors such as Automotive,Railway, Mining, Wind Generation and other.
Production and installed capacity needed to meet the expected demand in Brazil (unit: thousand ton)
Brazilian Foundry Association – ABIFA Av. Paulista, 1274 – 20o andar01310-925 – São Paulo – SP - BrazilPh: (+55 11) 3549-3344 and Fac (+55 11) 3549-3355Remo De Simone – [email protected] Sept/2015
THANK YOU !
Source:
ABAL - Brazilian Aluminum AssociationABIFA – Brazilian Foundry AssociationABRAFE – Brazilian Ferroalloys AssociationANEEL – National Agency of Electricity (Brazil)ANFAVEA – National Automobile Manufactures Association (Brazil)BACEN – Central Bank of BrazilCIFRA – Argentina´s Chamber of MetalcasterFIRJAN – Federation of Rio de Janeiro IndustriesIBGE – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics SINDIFER – Producers of Pig Iron Trade Union (Brazil)SMF – Mexican Society of Metalcasters
