10
April 28, 2021 1 Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs700 | TP: Rs770 Reasonable performance Quick Pointers: Strong loan growth of 7% QoQ was ahead of expectations, although NIMs were lower/flattish Slippages were under control although bank wrote-off Rs55.3bn of loans Axis bank earnings of Rs26.8bn (PLe: Rs19.6bn) saw a strong beat on back of better than expected other income and lower provisioning. PPOP grew by 17%, although core PPOP grew by 9% YoY as NII growth looked slightly weaker with growth of 11% YoY which was lower than 16% of FY21. Headline asset quality was better due to better recovery/upgrades & higher write-off of Rs55.3bn (89bps of loans). Bank has maintained PCR of 72% and 80bps of COVID provisions over and above regulatory specific provisions on non NPAs. With legacy NPAs provided for, better growth and initiatives are working gradually to move ratios towards high ROE goal of 17-18%. With delta from lowering credit cost towards 120-130bps, we expect ROEs to move to 13% by FY23, but is a notch lower than ICICI. Retain Accumulate with revised TP of Rs770 (from Rs725) based on 2.0x (from 1.9x) FY23 ABV. Operationally good but not very straight forward: Bank’s PPOP grew by 17% YoY/12% QoQ as treasury income was quite good contrary to expectations. Core PPOP grew by 9% YoY/11% QoQ led by good fee income growth of 15% YoY. Although NII was decent with 11% YoY/2.5% QoQ growth but looks slow compared to loan growth of 7% QoQ and average CASA growth of 7% QoQ. Despite strong growth NIMs were down by 3bps QoQ to 3.56% and still flattish if adjusted to IT refund. Staff opex was also up by 21% YoY on gratuity provisions owing to SC announcement on social security. Headline asset quality was good, but higher w.off was deterrent: GNPA/NNPA ratio improved by 90/7bps QoQ to 3.7%/1.1%. It was also lower by 120/40bps YoY as well. Slippages were Rs55.1bn, slightly higher than anticipated but recovery/upgrades of 34.6bn were good. Bank wrote-off Rs55.3bn of loans which were on quite higher side in our view and has been for last quarter as well due to bank’s rule based provision and write -off policy. Two-third of slippages were from retail in Q4 which was annualized 400bps of loans and higher than 3.9% of FY21. Although, bank has maintained PCR of 72% despite higher write-offs and provisioning management, while 80bps of loans as COVID provision over and above for specific provisions provides strength to balance sheet. Strong display of business growth: Bank’s loans grew by 9% YoY (12% incl. TLTROs) led across segments. Corporate/SME saw renewed traction post being conservative in last few quarters mainly focused on MNC, Mid-corporate and PSUs. Retail growth was strong in mortgages, biz banking and rural, slower in cards and cautiously optimistic in personal loans. Bank saw strong 30-40% QoQ disbursements across product levels much above levels seen pre-COVID with 58% of business driven by retail liabilities branches. On liabilities side, CASA traction was good with average growing by 18% YoY/7% QoQ and decent retail TDs. Focus remains on granularity to make it more linear and has continued to see strong additions of liability customers and remains high base from cross sell of products. Axis Bank (AXSB IN) April 28, 2021 Q4FY21 Result Update Change in Estimates | Target | Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E Rating ACCU MUL ATE ACCUMULATE Target Price 770 725 NII (Rs. m) 3,40,0 36 3,97,7 48 3,30,7 04 3,80,237 % Chng. 2.8 4.6 Op. Profit (Rs. m) 2,97,7 34 3,47,8 56 2,82,2 95 3,21,520 % Chng. 5.5 8.2 EPS (Rs.) 38.9 51.8 37.2 52.7 % Chng. 4.5 (1.7 ) Key Financials - Standalone Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E NII (Rs bn) 252 292 340 398 Op. Prof it (Rs bn) 234 257 298 348 PAT (Rs bn) 16 66 119 159 EPS (Rs.) 6.0 22.4 38.9 51.8 Gr. (%) (34.8) 271.0 73.7 33.3 DPS (Rs.) 1.0 - - 8.0 Yield (%) 0.1 - - 1.1 NIM (%) 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 RoAE (%) 2.1 7.1 11.1 13.2 RoAA (%) 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 PE (x) 115.9 31.2 18.0 13.5 CAR (%) 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.1 Key Data AXBK.BO | AXSB IN 52-W High / Low Rs.800 / Rs.333 Sensex / Nifty 48,944 / 14,653 Market Cap Rs.2,143bn/ $ 28,697m Shares Outstanding 3,064m 3M Av g. Daily Value Rs.27078.94m Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoter’s 13.58 Foreign 51.43 Domestic Institution 23.27 Public & Others 11.72 Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 0.2 37.6 63.7 Relativ e 0.3 13.9 6.1 Pritesh Bumb [email protected] | 91-22-66322232 Anmol Das [email protected] |

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Page 1: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

April 28, 2021 1

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs700 | TP: Rs770

Reasonable performance

Quick Pointers:

Strong loan growth of 7% QoQ was ahead of expectations, although NIMs were

lower/flattish

Slippages were under control although bank wrote-off Rs55.3bn of loans

Axis bank earnings of Rs26.8bn (PLe: Rs19.6bn) saw a strong beat on back

of better than expected other income and lower provisioning. PPOP grew by

17%, although core PPOP grew by 9% YoY as NII growth looked slightly

weaker with growth of 11% YoY which was lower than 16% of FY21. Headline

asset quality was better due to better recovery/upgrades & higher write-off of

Rs55.3bn (89bps of loans). Bank has maintained PCR of 72% and 80bps of

COVID provisions over and above regulatory specific provisions on non

NPAs. With legacy NPAs provided for, better growth and initiatives are

working gradually to move ratios towards high ROE goal of 17-18%. With

delta from lowering credit cost towards 120-130bps, we expect ROEs to move

to 13% by FY23, but is a notch lower than ICICI. Retain Accumulate with

revised TP of Rs770 (from Rs725) based on 2.0x (from 1.9x) FY23 ABV.

Operationally good but not very straight forward: Bank’s PPOP grew by

17% YoY/12% QoQ as treasury income was quite good contrary to

expectations. Core PPOP grew by 9% YoY/11% QoQ led by good fee income

growth of 15% YoY. Although NII was decent with 11% YoY/2.5% QoQ growth

but looks slow compared to loan growth of 7% QoQ and average CASA growth

of 7% QoQ. Despite strong growth NIMs were down by 3bps QoQ to 3.56%

and still flattish if adjusted to IT refund. Staff opex was also up by 21% YoY on

gratuity provisions owing to SC announcement on social security.

Headline asset quality was good, but higher w.off was deterrent:

GNPA/NNPA ratio improved by 90/7bps QoQ to 3.7%/1.1%. It was also lower

by 120/40bps YoY as well. Slippages were Rs55.1bn, slightly higher than

anticipated but recovery/upgrades of 34.6bn were good. Bank wrote -off

Rs55.3bn of loans which were on quite higher side in our view and has been

for last quarter as well due to bank’s rule based provision and write -off policy.

Two-third of slippages were from retail in Q4 which was annualized 400bps of

loans and higher than 3.9% of FY21. Although, bank has maintained PCR of

72% despite higher write-offs and provisioning management, while 80bps of

loans as COVID provision over and above for specific provisions provides

strength to balance sheet.

Strong display of business growth: Bank’s loans grew by 9% YoY (12% incl.

TLTROs) led across segments. Corporate/SME saw renewed traction post

being conservative in last few quarters mainly focused on MNC, Mid-corporate

and PSUs. Retail growth was strong in mortgages, biz banking and rural,

slower in cards and cautiously optimistic in personal loans. Bank saw strong

30-40% QoQ disbursements across product levels much above levels seen

pre-COVID with 58% of business driven by retail liabilities branches. On

liabilities side, CASA traction was good with average growing by 18% YoY/7%

QoQ and decent retail TDs. Focus remains on granularity to make it more linear

and has continued to see strong additions of liability customers and remains

high base from cross sell of products.

Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

April 28, 2021

Q4FY21 Result Update

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | Reco

Change in Estimates

Current Previous

FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E

Rating ACCU MUL ATE ACCUMULATE

Target Price 770 725

NII (Rs. m) 3,40,036 3,97,748 3,30,704 3,80,237

% Chng. 2.8 4.6

Op. Pro fit (Rs. m) 2,97,734 3,47,856 2,82,295 3,21,520

% Chng. 5.5 8.2

EPS (Rs.) 38.9 51.8 37.2 52.7

% Chng. 4.5 (1.7 )

Key Financials - Standalone

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

NII (Rs bn) 252 292 340 398

Op. Prof it (Rs bn) 234 257 298 348

PAT (Rs bn) 16 66 119 159

EPS (Rs.) 6.0 22.4 38.9 51.8

Gr. (%) (34.8) 271.0 73.7 33.3

DPS (Rs.) 1.0 - - 8.0

Yield (%) 0.1 - - 1.1

NIM (%) 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7

RoAE (%) 2.1 7.1 11.1 13.2

RoAA (%) 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7

P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8

PE (x) 115.9 31.2 18.0 13.5

CAR (%) 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.1

Key Data AXBK.BO | AXSB IN

52-W High / Low Rs.800 / Rs.333

Sensex / Nifty 48,944 / 14,653

Market Cap Rs.2,143bn/ $ 28,697m

Shares Outstanding 3,064m

3M Av g. Daily Value Rs.27078.94m

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter’s 13.58

Foreign 51.43

Domestic Institution 23.27

Public & Others 11.72

Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

Stock Performance (%)

1M 6M 12M

Absolute 0.2 37.6 63.7

Relativ e 0.3 13.9 6.1

Pritesh Bumb

[email protected] | 91-22-66322232

Anmol Das

[email protected] |

Page 2: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 2

Exhibit 1: Decent NII, other income & lower provisions boost earnings

Financial Statement (Rs m) Q4FY21 Q4FY20 YoY gr.

(%) Q3FY21

QoQ gr.

(%)

Interest Income 155,452 162,341 (4.2) 154,984 0.3

Interest Expenses 79,902 94,264 (15.2) 81,256 (1.7)

Net interest income (NII) 75,550 68,077 11.0 73,728 2.5

Other income 46,683 39,855 17.1 37,760 23.6

Total income 122,233 107,932 13.2 111,488 9.6

Operating expenses 53,586 49,421 8.4 50,533 6.0

-Staff expenses 16,676 13,740 21.4 16,774 (0.6)

-Other expenses 36,910 35,681 3.4 33,759 9.3

Operating profit 68,647 58,511 17.3 60,955 12.6

Core operating profit 60,757 55,871 8.7 54,803 10.9

Total provisions 32,950 77,300 (57.4) 46,043 (28.4)

Profit before tax 35,697 (18,789) NA 14,912 139.4

Tax 8,926 (4,911) NA 3,746 138.3

Profit after tax 26,771 (13,878) NA 11,166 139.8

Balance sheet (Rs m)

Deposits 7,073,061 6,401,049 10.5 6,541,403 8.1

Advances 6,237,202 5,714,242 9.2 5,827,539 7.0

Ratios (%)

Profitability ratios

RoaA 1.1 (0.6) 173 0.5 63

NIM 3.6 3.6 1 3.6 (3)

Cost of Funds 4.1 5.2 (110) 4.3 (20)

Asset Quality

Gross NPL 253,148 302,338 (16.3) 219,979 15.1

Net NPL 69,935 93,604 (25.3) 46,098 51.7

Gross NPL ratio 3.7 4.9 (116) 3.4 26

Net NPL ratio 1.1 1.6 (44) 0.7 38

Coverage ratio (Calc) 72.4 69.0 333 79.0 (667)

Business & Other Ratios

Low -cost deposit mix 45.0 39.0 600 42.0 300

Cost-income ratio 43.8 45.8 (195) 45.3 (149)

Non int. inc / total income 38.2 36.9 127 33.9 432

Credit deposit ratio 88.2 89.3 (109) 89.1 (90)

CAR 19.1 17.5 159 19.3 (19)

Tier-I 16.5 14.5 198 16.5 (1)

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 2: A broad based growth, in retail led by mortgages

Segmental Mix (Rs m) Q4FY21 Q4FY20 YoY gr. (%)

Q3FY21 QoQ gr. (%)

Large & mid-corporate 2,193,560 2,041,030 7.5 2,008,910 9.2

SME Advances 698,500 619,210 12.8 639,690 9.2

Retail 3,345,140 3,054,000 9.5 3,178,940 5.2

- Housing Loans & LAP 1,204,250 1,068,900 12.7 1,144,418 5.2

- Personal loans 401,417 397,020 1.1 381,473 5.2

- Auto loans 401,751 397,020 1.2 413,262 (2.8)

Source: Company, PL

NII growth was decent with 11%

growth led by lower funding cost, although there was drag on yields

Better fees, treasury contributed for

other income to be better

Staff expenses continue to see one-off

provision on gratuity

Provisions came off despite providing

higher on change in policy in b iz

banking

Sequential loan/deposit growth was

quite strong

NIMs have been sub -par despite strong loan growth /CASA growth

Headline asset quality came off due to

higher write-offs during the quarter

Page 3: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 3

Key Q4FY21 Concall Highlights

Business Strategy

Continue to focus on six-point strategy (i) Strengthening core of bank (ii) Invest

in technology (iii) Making Axis digital (iv) granularity in

loans/deposits/exposures (v) Strong focus on PPOP growth and (vi) Improve

reach & scale up subsidiaries

Assets/Liabilities

Retail book - The retail segment saw strong momentum with highest ever

quarterly retail disbursements. Domestic secured retail loans grew 13% YoY

and 8% QoQ. Secured segments like HL, LAP and small biz banking continued

to grow strongly with 45% QoQ, 51% QoQ and 42% QoQ growth in

disbursements, respectively

Corporate book – Large corporate continue to deliver amidst deleveraging &

repayments/pre-payments. Strong growth in non-large corporate side like –

Mid corp, Govt biz, MNCs which is 15-18% of loans.

Under ECLGS disbursed Rs104bn of loans to 26000 a/c with 99% being

ECLGS 1.0.

Deposits – Focus remains on granular accretion. Bank added 1.8mn new

liability a/c opened in Q4, up 10% QoQ while added 6.7mn new accounts for

FY21. New savings & CA acquisition grew by 12% & 7%QoQ and average

retail saving balances were up by 11% YoY. New salary relationships grew by

55% YoY to 2700+ names.

Opex/NIMs

Staff opex has been up YoY as bank provides for social security (gratuity) of

Rs2.2bn

NIMs have been slightly subdued due to pivoting to secured assets and better

rated corporates but the is compensated by fees improving. Targeting a NIM

of 3.7-3.8% in-line to reach the 18% ROE target

Asset Quality

Restructuring & BB and below book – Fund based restructuring is Rs18.5bn

or 0.3% of customer assets and has implemented Rs6.23bn or 0.1% of GC.

Segmental break up was 0.6% wholesale book, 0.14% in Retail & 0.02% SME.

BB & below stood at 1.4% with 38% is rated better than 1 rating agency. Bank

collected for Rs14.0bn, Rs9.2bn slipped and 9.6bn was downgraded to BB &

below.

Cheque bounce rates slightly higher than pre-covid. Although demand

resolution has been higher given the strong recovery workforce built and

investments made in collections in FY21.

Bank witnessed Rs52.8bn of slippages of which 65% were from retail book and

in FY21 retail slippages were 3.73%. Fair mix of secured loans and Unsecured

with more from cards biz and are one time as did not rely on restructuring.

Page 4: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 4

Bank made Rs8.0bn of provisions on change in policy for commercial banking

group and no provision policy changes expected in FY22. W.offs have been on

rule based and has been based on biz mix.

Exhibit 3: NIMs have been steady

3.2%

3.3%

3.4%

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

4.0%

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

3Q

20

4Q

20

1Q

21

2Q

21

3Q

21

4Q

21

Net Interest Margin (%)

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 4: CASA improves on both CA & SA

36%

39%

42%

45%

48%

51%

54%

57%

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

3Q

20

4Q

20

1Q

21

2Q

21

3Q

21

4Q

21

Low Cost deposits (%)

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 5: Repo linked loans have seen improvement on incremental lending

has been higher to retail

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4%

56% 59% 60%55% 52% 50%

43% 39% 36%

25% 24% 24%26%

26% 28%28%

29%29%

9% 8% 8%9% 9% 8%

8%8%

6%

3% 6% 8%15% 19% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21

Base Rate MCLR Fixed LIBOR Repo

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 6: Steady flow of fees for the bank

38% 35% 38% 40% 39% 36% 41% 42% 44%

23% 27% 26% 27% 25%20%

21% 22% 21%

17% 16%18% 18%

19%43% 38% 36% 36%5% 3% 4%

4%17%3% 9% 2% 1%

0%14% 10% 12% 10%

0%

4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21

Retail (non card) Retail (card) Transc. Bnking

SME Treasury & DCM Corp Fees

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Page 5: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 5

Exhibit 7: C/I was steady but higher than peers on one-offs provision

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

16

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

3Q

20

4Q

20

1Q

21

2Q

21

3Q

21

4Q

21

Cost-Income Ratio

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 8: Asset quality improves on better recovery & higher write-offs

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

3Q

20

4Q

20

1Q

21

2Q

21

3Q

21

4Q

21

Gross NPA (%) Net NPA (%) Coverage Ratio (%) - RHS

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 9: Corporate book rating improves as incremental lending to strong

rated corporates

66

%

68%

70

%

74

%

77%

78%

79

%

82%

82%

83

%

84

%

84

%

83

%

82%

82%

83

%

85

%

34%

32

%

30%

26%

23

%

22

%

21%

18

%

18

%

17%

16%

16%

17%

18

%

18

%

17%

15

%

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

3Q

20

4Q

20

1Q

21

2Q

21

3Q

21

4Q

21

A- & Above BBB and below

Source: Company, PL Note – BB book clubbed with BBB from Q4FY20

Page 6: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 6

Exhibit 10: SME rating improves 100bps sequentially

84%

85%

86%

87%

88%

88%

89%

86%

85%

85%

86%

86%

85%

84%

85%

85%

86%

16% 15%13% 13% 12% 12% 11%

14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 15% 16% 15% 15% 14%

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

3Q

20

4Q

20

1Q

21

2Q

21

3Q

21

4Q

21

SME 3 or better Others

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 11: Non NPA stress book has been coming off with decent provision coverage

Stressed Loans (Rs Mn) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21

Gross slippages 47,980 49,830 62,140 39,200 22,180 17,510 79,930 52,850

Recoveries+ Up gradations 21,770 22,130 24,220 24,890 6,080 20,260 21,650 34,620

Write-offs 30,050 31,040 27,900 12,700 22,840 18,120 42,570 55,530

Annualized Slippages (%) 3.87% 3.91% 4.64% 2.80% 1.57% 1.23% 5.52% 3.50%

BB & Below book 75,040 62,910 51,280 65,280 64,200 91,180 87,220 74,430

NFB O/s to BB & Below exposures 25,000 22,000 36,700 39,060 37,210 49,280 47,960 45,740

Investments O/s in BB & Below rating 17,580 9,850 5,620 6,120 8,080 6,200 6,660

Total BB & below book 100,040 102,490 97,830 109,960 107,530 148,540 141,380 126,830

% of customer assets 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%

Provisions held 75,872 80,648 114,376 106,035 91,318

Total Restructured Dispensation 27,090 18,480

% of loans 0.4% 0.3%

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 12: We increase our estimates on growth & lower provisions slightly

Earning Estimate

Change (Rs mn)

Old Revised % Change

FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E

Net interest income 330,704 380,237 340,036 397,748 2.8 4.6

Operating profit 282,295 321,520 297,734 347,856 5.5 8.2

Net profit 113,886 161,424 119,119 158,841 4.6 (1.6)

Loan Grow th (%) 9.0 14.0 10.0 12.0 1.0 (2.0)

Credit Cost (bps) 190.0 135.0 140.0 130.0 (50.0) (5.0)

EPS (Rs) 37.2 52.7 38.9 51.8 4.5 (1.7)

ABVPS (Rs) 329.3 375.3 342.2 384.6 3.9 2.5

Price target (Rs) 725 770 6.2

Recommendation ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE

Source: Company, PL

Page 7: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 7

Exhibit 13: We revise our TP to Rs770 (from Rs725) based on 2.0x (from 1.9x)

Mar-23 ABV

PT calculation and upside

Terminal growth 5.0%

Market ri sk premium 7.0%

Risk-free rate 6.3%

Adjusted beta 1.08

Cost of equity 13.8%

Fair price - P/ABV 770

Target P/ABV 2.0

Target P/E 14.9

Current price, Rs 700

Upside (%) 10%

Dividend yield (%) 1%

Total return (%) 11%

Source: Company, PL

Exhibit 14: AXSB’s one year forward P/ABV trends

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.3

Apr-

17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-1

8

Apr-

18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-1

9

Apr-

19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-2

0

Apr-

20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-2

1

Apr-

21

P/ABV 3 yr avg. avg. + 1 SD avg. - 1 SD

Source: Company, PL

Page 8: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 8

Income Statement (Rs. m)

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Int. Earned from Adv. 4,83,030 4,79,189 5,30,474 6,14,533

Int. Earned from invt. 1,12,460 1,25,582 1,58,331 1,81,107

Others 30,862 31,682 25,521 20,380

Total Interest Income 6,26,352 6,36,453 7,14,325 8,16,019

Interest Expenses 3,74,290 3,44,062 3,74,289 4,18,272

Net Interest Income 2,52,062 2,92,391 3,40,036 3,97,748

Growth(%) 16.9 8.2 13.8 14.7

Non Interest Income 1,55,366 1,48,380 1,61,735 1,77,908

Net Total Income 4,07,428 4,40,772 5,01,771 5,75,656

Growth(%) 14.8 0.4 11.6 13.5

Employ ee Expenses 53,210 61,640 70,270 78,702

Other Expenses 1,12,107 1,14,619 1,26,081 1,41,210

Operating Expenses 1,73,046 1,83,752 2,04,036 2,27,800

Operating Profit 2,34,381 2,57,020 2,97,734 3,47,856

Growth(%) 23.3 9.7 15.8 16.8

NPA Prov ision 1,27,555 79,070 91,687 94,544

Total Prov isions 1,85,339 1,68,960 1,38,057 1,34,932

PBT 49,042 88,060 1,59,677 2,12,924

Tax Prov ision 32,770 22,173 40,558 54,083

Effective tax rate (%) 66.8 25.2 25.4 25.4

PAT 16,272 65,887 1,19,119 1,58,841

Growth(%) (31.6) 304.9 80.8 33.3

Balance Sheet (Rs. m)

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Face v alue 2 2 2 2

No. of equity shares 2,822 3,064 3,064 3,064

Equity 5,643 6,128 6,128 6,128

Networth 8,49,478 10,16,030 11,35,150 12,64,260

Growth(%) 27.4 19.6 11.7 11.4

Adj. Networth to NNPAs 93,604 69,935 70,630 66,562

Deposits 64,01,049 70,73,061 78,51,097 88,71,740

Growth(%) 16.7 10.5 11.0 13.0

CASA Deposits 26,37,061 31,77,490 34,85,887 39,92,283

% of total deposits 41.2 44.9 44.4 45.0

Total Liabilities 91,51,648 99,61,184 1,08,99,187 1,21,66,136

Net Adv ances 57,14,242 62,37,202 68,60,922 76,84,233

Growth(%) 15.5 9.2 10.0 12.0

Inv estments 15,67,343 22,61,196 25,65,971 28,70,651

Total Assets 91,51,648 99,61,184 1,08,99,187 1,21,66,136

Growth (%) 14.3 8.8 9.4 11.6

Asset Quality

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Gross NPAs (Rs m) 3,02,338 2,53,148 2,70,413 2,37,022

Net NPAs (Rs m) 93,604 69,935 70,630 66,562

Gr. NPAs to Gross Adv.(%) 5.3 4.1 3.9 3.1

Net NPAs to Net Adv. (%) 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9

NPA Coverage % 69.0 72.4 73.9 71.9

Profitability (%)

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

NIM 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7

RoAA 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4

RoAE 2.1 7.1 11.1 13.2

Tier I 14.5 16.5 16.8 16.9

CRAR 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.1

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs. m)

Y/e Mar Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21

Interest Income 1,65,389 1,60,629 1,54,984 1,55,452

Interest Expenses 95,536 87,368 81,256 79,902

Net Interest Income 69,853 73,261 73,728 75,550

YoY growth (%) 19.5 20.1 14.3 11.0

CEB 16,520 27,520 28,896 33,760

Treasury - - - -

Non Interest Income 25,867 38,072 37,760 46,683

Total Income 1,91,256 1,98,701 1,92,744 2,02,135

Employ ee Expenses 14,061 14,129 16,774 16,676

Other expenses 23,215 28,227 33,759 36,910

Operating Expenses 37,276 42,356 50,533 53,586

Operating Profit 58,444 68,976 60,955 68,647

YoY growth (%) (0.8) 15.9 6.1 17.3

Core Operating Profits 52,224 61,286 54,803 60,757

NPA Prov ision 35,120 5,880 10,530 27,540

Others Provisions 44,164 45,807 46,043 32,950

Total Prov isions 44,164 45,807 46,043 32,950

Profit Before Tax 14,280 23,170 14,912 35,697

Tax 3,158 6,343 3,746 8,926

PAT 11,122 16,827 11,166 26,771

YoY growth (%) (18.8) (1,601.3) (36.4) (292.9)

Deposits 62,81,503 63,54,543 65,41,403 70,73,061

YoY growth (%) 16.2 8.8 10.6 10.5

Advances 56,13,408 57,63,725 58,27,539 62,37,202

YoY growth (%) 12.9 10.5 5.9 9.2

Key Ratios

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

CMP (Rs) 700 700 700 700

EPS (Rs) 6.0 22.4 38.9 51.8

Book Value (Rs) 301 332 371 413

Adj. BV (70%)(Rs) 268 304 342 385

P/E (x) 115.9 31.2 18.0 13.5

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7

P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8

DPS (Rs) 1.0 - - 8.0

Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 20.1 - - 18.7

Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 - - 1.1

Efficiency

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Cost-Income Ratio (%) 42.5 41.7 40.7 39.6

C-D Ratio (%) 89.3 88.2 87.4 86.6

Business per Emp. (Rs m) 163 162 161 163

Prof it per Emp. (Rs lacs) 2 8 13 16

Business per Branch (Rs m) 2,676 2,897 2,785 2,725

Prof it per Branch (Rs m) 4 14 23 26

Du-Pont

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

NII 3.23 3.37 3.56 3.75

Total Income 5.22 5.08 5.25 5.42

Operating Expenses 2.22 2.12 2.13 2.15

PPoP 3.00 2.96 3.11 3.28

Total prov isions 2.37 1.95 1.44 1.27

RoAA 0.21 0.76 1.25 1.50

RoAE 2.15 7.06 11.07 13.24

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Page 9: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 9

Price Chart Recommendation History

No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

1 06-Apr-21 Accumulate 725 685

2 28-Jan-21 Accumulate 725 632

3 11-Jan-21 Accumulate 750 673

4 29-Oct-20 Accumulate 570 505

5 09-Oct-20 Hold 480 468

6 22-Jul-20 Hold 480 446

7 08-Jul-20 Hold 475 444

8 29-Apr-20 Hold 475 455

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

1 Axis Bank Accumulate 725 685

2 Bank of Baroda BUY 82 73

3 Federal Bank Accumulate 88 76

4 HDFC Bank BUY 1,735 1,429

5 HDFC Life Insurance Company Reduce 660 705

6 ICICI Bank BUY 700 570

7 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Accumulate 504 452

8 IDFC First Bank Sell 32 54

9 IndusInd Bank BUY 1,195 937

10 Kotak Mahindra Bank Hold 1,912 1,759

11 Max Financial Services Accumulate 995 890

12 Punjab National Bank Accumulate 43 37

13 SBI Life Insurance Company BUY 1,080 919

14 South Indian Bank BUY 10 8

15 State Bank of India BUY 445 354

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%

Accumulate : 5% to 15%

Hold : +5% to -5%

Reduce : -5% to -15%

Sell : < -15%

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

303

434

564

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825

Ap

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Oct

- 18

Ap

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19

Oct

- 19

Ap

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20

Oct

- 20

Ap

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(Rs)

Page 10: Axis Bank (AXSB IN)

Axis Bank

April 28, 2021 10

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