Aviation Safety in a changing world FSF MED MAY 2014 Airbus Product Safety Frédéric COMBES Head of Accident / Incident Investigation

Aviation Safety in a changing world

FSF MED MAY 2014

Airbus Product SafetyFrédéric COMBES

Head of Accident / Incident Investigation

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

The changing landscape of Aviation…

In 1960, 40 aircraft took off every hour.

Today, there are 3100 aircraft taking off every hour, that is almost one every second around the world.

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The number of commercial airlines worldwide increased by 70% over the past 40 years.

It doubled in the Indian sub-continent.

It more than trippled in China.

It was multiplied by 4.5 in CIS.

Today, there are more than 2000 commercial airlines around the world

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The number of airports for commercial aviation worldwide remained virtually unchanged over the past 40 years.

In Europe, Japan or the US, 1 runway is built every ten years.

In China 82 new airport projects are planned to be started by the end of 2015.

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The fleet of the largest airline is above 700 aircraft.

40% of airlines have a fleet of less than 5 aircraft.

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In 1970, a « low cost » airline didn’t mean anything

Today, 15% of the traffic is performed by low cost airlines worldwide

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In the 80’s, airlines employed almost exclusively local pilots

Today, some airlines employ more than10 different nationalities of pilots

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A barrel in current US $ was around

33 $ in 1982,

19 $ in 1992

25 $ in 2002

Today, it is above 100 $

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What will the aeronautical environment look like in the future?

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?


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Air Transport is adynamic complex system

with huge variability


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What is the Global Safety Perspective ?

What are the possible ways forward ?


A340 Family

A330 Family

A350 Family

A320 Family

A300/A310 Family

A380 Family

Airbus fleet – End Feb. 2014

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Orders

324 124 124

377 377 353

814 0 0

1313 1061 1048

816 816 400

10241 5961 5749

In operationsDeliveries


A340 Family

A330 Family

A350 Family

A320 Family

A300/A310 Family

A380 Family

Airbus fleet – End Feb. 2014

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Orders

324 124 124

377 377 353

814 0 0

1313 1061 1048

816 816 400

10241 5961 5749

In operationsDeliveries

13895 Aircraft Ordered390 Operators

8339 A/C Deliveries5556 A/C Backlog

7674 A/C In Operations

~210 000 000 FH since EIS~105 000 000 FC since EIS

More than 25 000 Flights per day


Ways forward

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MAJOR RISKS• Loosing sight of key assets: high professional

standards• Taking safety for granted

CHALLENGES• The holistic nature of air transport• The variability of operational contexts• The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and

its uncertainty


Ways forward

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its uncertainty


0 10 20 30 40 500

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Fatal accident rate – Dec. 2012

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Fatal accident per million departures

1st generation:Early jet

1st generation

All aircraft

3rd generation:Glass-cockpitNav displayFMS

3rd generation

4th generation:FBWFlight EnvelopeProtection

4th generationYears of operation

2nd generation:2nd jet generation

2nd generation

Sources: Ascend, Airbus


0 10 20 30 40 500

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Fatal accident rate

Fatal accident per million departures

1st generation:Early jet

1st generation

All aircraft

3rd generation:Glass-cockpitNav displayFMS

3rd generation

4th generation:FBW*Flight EnvelopeProtection

4th generationYears of operation

2nd generation:2nd jet generation

2nd generation

Sources: Ascend, Airbus

*100% of Airbus today production line from A318 to A380+ B777 and B787

What has aviation learned?• Automation has brought safety benefits & will continue,

• Sharing of information is vital,

• Keeping highest training standards is one of the keys.

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High professional standards

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EBT, learning from positive, sharing experience

Air Transport: a dynamic complex system with huge variability

Need to maintain the highest professional standards

One example: evolution of pilot job

• Pilots are less & less exposed to manual flying conditions

• Evolution of pilots background

• Demand for new pilots


High professional standards

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Taking safety for granted

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developing safety awareness and sound SMS

Within a context of fast developing countries, buzz society, increasing liability stakes

Safe AircraftSafe Airline Operations

Safe Air Transport System

Growing fleet Variability of configurations

Ageing fleet

New business models Increased operational pressure Evolution of aviation professionals

Variety of aviation background

Evolution of ATM New operations (e.g. RNP)

Evolution of regulation

Increased financial pressure

Increased operational pressure & congestion in some areas


Ways forward

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its uncertainty


The holistic nature of Air Transport System

A number of safety initiatives have been launched over the years by the individual actors of the air transport system, eg• Flight Envelope Protection• Terrain Avoidance Warning• Runway Overrun Protection• Short Term Conflict Alert• ….

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Need for more combined approaches at ATS level

• RNP deployment program• Regional Aviation Groups• …


Ways forward

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its uncertainty


The variability of operational contexts

In many cases ways forward to enhance safety are known,but not implemented, eg• Offer alternatives to circling approach• Runway design: grooving, safe overrun,• Ensure basics are known and understood• Ensure implementation of robust Flight Data Monitoring• Promote the sharing of information• …

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Need for ad hoc approaches

• Capability to focus on the right things to do first


Ways forward

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its uncertainty


The dynamic nature of the Air Transport System… and its uncertainty

Probabilistic approaches allow for anticipating a number of scenarios. Yet, there will always be unprecedented and unanticipated situations…

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From a priori responses…to resilience


What’s next

Continue to enhance Safety TOGETHER for more anticipation

SMS, Safety Culture, Safety Strategy

Risk Management

« Big data » - identification of trends

−At individual organisation level

−At a wider scale

Continuous implementation of known Lessons Learnt

Further improving the sharing of Safety information

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© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.

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Thank you

Documents

Aviation Safety in a changing world FSF MED MAY 2014 Airbus Product Safety Frédéric COMBES Head of Accident / Incident Investigation