2

Andrea Apollonio and Odei Rey Orozko

Workshop follow-up meeting

CERN, August 25th, 2016

AVAILABILITY MODELLING WORKSHOP

OVERVIEW, OUTCOME AND PLANS

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Index

• Availability Modelling Workshop overview.

• Comparison of different software packages.

• Update of AvailSim project.

• Future Plans.

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- AVAILABILTY MODELLING WORKSHOP OVERVIEW-

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PARTICIPANTS

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OBJECTIVES AND AGENDA

LUNCH BREAK

RAMI STUDIESThe performed and on-going RAMI

studies in the accelerator domain

were presented

SOFTWARE PACKAGES &

SYNERGIES

Mo

rnin

g s

essio

nA

fte

rnoo

n s

essio

n

Discussion

Introduction, R. SchmidtIncreasing interest and effort invested

into reliability and availability studies

Identify the needs that arise when

performing such a study in different

projects.

Understand the functionality of each

software, advantages and limitations.

Discuss synergies for collaboration

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LEV

EL

3LE

VE

L 1

Run LS

LTS HWC CWB Physics

MD TS CWB

END

TS CWBMD

IDLEInjec-tion

RAMP SBRamp Down

FaultPre

Cycle

LEV

EL

2

1. AVAILABILITY STUDIES FOR FCC, ARTO NIEMI (CERN)

• The LHC model was presented.

• State based chain model together with Faults trees.

• Elmas simulation software is used to model the LHC and its operational modes.

• Future work: the study of the FCC based on scaling up the LHC and injector chain.

• Cryogenics FT can be used for other accelerators…. MYRRHA

• Use model to define availability budgets for sub-systems.

RAMI STUDIES

DATA SOURCE 1

DATA SOURCE 2

DATA SOURCE N

RAMSDB

INPUT DATA

RAMS DB RESULTS

EXPERT KNOWLEDGE DATA

Reliability data Data into the model Cloud computation Storing the results

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2. PSB RF SYSTEM UPGRADE AVAILABILITY STUDIES, ODEI REY (CERN)

• An overview of the PSB RF System was given.

• Two dependability studies performed and compared: Monte Carlo Simulations and Analytical

methods.

• The PSB RF System is modelled in Isograph by Reliability Block Diagrams (more than 5000

components).

• Interesting to compare the execution time of the simulations in different tools.

• Common failures need to be considered to get correct results.

• Extension using ISOGRAPH to a large machine (CLIC) difficult, since so many components.

RAMI STUDIES

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3. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF RADIATION PROTECTION MODELS, SASKIA HURST (DE)

• CROME radiation Monitoring System structure and functional analysis was presented.

• The study aims to assess if the required SIL2 for CROME is achieved.

• CROME system MTTF calculated with Isograph Prediction tool.

• An FMEA had been performed in Isograph and RPN assigned

to each component.

• The calculated MTTF and assigned RPN for each component

were presented in a Risk matrix.

• Focus not only on components also on interfaces between components ( cabling, connectivity)

RAMI STUDIES

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4. AVAILABILITY STUDIES FOR MYRRHA, ADRIAN PITIGOI (EA)

• MYRRHA – long term supporting research facility for Accelerator Driven Spallation System.

• SNS Linac modelled in RiskSpectrum. Results in line with the SNS logbook.

• MYRRHA reliability model built in Risk Spectrum (Fault Tree solved analytically). .

• Reliasoft’s BlockSim software tool will be used for further RAMI studies of MYRRTHA.

• Failure database for MYRRHA developed from SNS and Linac4 failure catalogue.

• Ideas for most dependable architecture to be discussed.

• Maintenance phases not possible to model in RiskSpectrum.

RAMI STUDIES

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5. IFMIF Accelerator Facility RAMI analyses, Enric Bargalló (ESS)

• International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility challenges and requirements presented.

• RAMI studies performed to analyse different design options and propose changes in the machine.

• Analytical calculations were done using RiskSpectrum (Fault trees). Results compared to HA requirements.

• Decision to adopt AvailSim 2.0 software for availability modelling.

• Definitions of terms needed for availability allocation: Hardware Avail, Beam Effectiveness and Beam Avail.

• Some components failures and degraded operation can be modelled.

RAMI STUDIES

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6. Isograph, Andrea Apollonio (CERN)

7. ELMAS, Jussi-Pekka Penttinen (Ramentor)

8. AvailSim, Enric Bargalló (ESS)

9. Realist IMA Modelling tool, Thomas Herzig (DE)

SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX

SOFTWARE PACKAGES

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• Software-features matrix development.

• Use Linac4 as a use-case for AvailSim 3.0.

• Collaboration with ESS under discussion.

• Possibility to model Linac4 with the different software packages (under discussion):

• Input data: Linac4 reliability run.

• Compare modelling process.

• Compare results and performance.

• Find similarities.

• Activity possibly followed up in the RASWG.

• Proposal for a common input format of the models.

Commonformat

Intermediate Translators

Isograph

Elmas

AvailSim

Realist

Results

Results

Results

Results

Co

mp

are

and

va

lidate

SYNERGIES FOR COLLABORATION

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- COMPARISSON OF DIFFERENT SOFTWARE PACKAGES-

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SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX I

AvailSim 3.0Elmas 4.8

(new version)Isograph Realist Reliasoft/BlockSim RiskSpectrum

Reliability estimation x x x x x

Availability prediction x x x x x x

Maintanability analysis x x x x x

FR Calculations *C

o

mx x

FMEA x x x

Weibull analysis x xOnly for results, no for

time failure datax

Lifecycle cost x x x x

Monte Carlo

Simulationsx x x x x

Analytical calculations Reliability

Petri-Nets x

Markov state model x

Fault Trees x x x x

Block Diagrams x x x x

Manual/from GUI x x x x x

From external files text filesExcel files (structure

and data separatelly).pnml files

Blocks from

Xfmea/RCM/RBIx

Application

Model definition

Calculation method

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SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX II

AvailSim 3.0Elmas 4.8

(new version)Isograph Realist Reliasoft/BlockSim RiskSpectrum

Failure mode categories

P

r

e

v

i

o

x x x x x

Phase dependent

failure distributions *1 x x

Accelerator specific

parameters

P

a

r

a

x x

Degraded operation

A

r

e

d

x x Only ageing behaviourOnly parameter

"throughput"

Maintenance strategies x x By tricks x With restrictions

Machine states/phases *1 x x x

*1 x

System reliability

structureFrom text files Excel *1 x

Component data x x x x x x

System reliability

structurex Excel, HTML Readable in XML x x x

Component data x x x x x x

Component librariesC

o

mx ?

Results x x x x x x

Import

Export

Accelerator driven

modelling features

Reliability allocation to components

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SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX III

AvailSim 3.0Elmas 4.8

(new version)Isograph Realist Reliasoft/BlockSim RiskSpectrum

Military Handbook *

T

h

e

M

i

x x

Create component

libraries

C

o

m

p

x x x x

Custom reports Excel, HTML x x x

Plotting features x x x x x

Accelerator domain

terms

T

h

e

t

e

x x

Open Commercial Commercial Research tool Commercial Commercial

Python Java *2 x

In text file DragManual renaming of

componentsx x

x x Simulation & Watch x ?

*3 x x

*1 Possible but not

implemented yet

Possibility to change,

improve, add or remove

features easily

*1 RAMalloc can be

included in ELMAS

*2 Platform independent

(Java)

*3 Project can be stored

in any file based

centralized cloud

*1 Only the RBR part of

the CSM

*Only in german, English

availability checked if

requested

Widely used in similar

complex machines (e.g.

ITER)

Verified for use in Nuclear

power plants

Copy/Paste

Debugging

Centralized Data Storage

Comments

Component libraries

Results

Open source / Commercial software

Customizable

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- UPDATE OF AVAILSIM PROJECT-

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AVAILSIM 3.0

• AvailSim: Simulation open source software for RAMI Analysis.

→ AvailSim 1.0: Developed by Stanford University (Tom Himel and his team). MatLab.

→ AvailSim 2.0: Adaptation of the software for IFMIF RAMI Analysis. MatLab.

→ AvailSim 3.0: Software being exported to Python at ESS in collaboration with SLAC.

• Core to be ready beginning of September.

• Possible collaboration with ESS in the development and debugging of the software.

• To be applied to Linac4 and CLIC availability studies.

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- FUTURE PLANS-

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FUTURE PLANS

• Provide forum and support for development of:• LHC and HL-LHC models• Models for future machines

(CLIC, Linac4, FCC, MYRRHA)• Based on inputs from existing

availability tracking tools.• Identify strengths and

weaknesses of different software packages.

• Validate results with different software packages.

• Standardize inputs for simulation.

Availability

Reliability

Provide forum and support for:• Reliability specifications for individual

systems.• Evaluation of system architectures.• Calculation of failure rates according to

standards (e.g. MIL).• Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis.• Maintenance Plans.• Use of software tools (templates,

guidelines,…).

Testing

When requested, provide support for:• Planning and execution of reliability runs.

(e.g. Linac4)

Document reference 22

Thanks a lot for your attention!

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