Automotive trends in steel and future mobility

Cees Ten Broek, Director, WorldAutoSteel

AK Steel Nippon Steel & Sumitomo

Ansteel Nucor

ArcelorMittal POSCO

Baowu Severstal

China Steel SSAB

Erdemir Tata Steel

HBIS Ternium

Hyundai Steel ThyssenKrupp

JFE USIMINAS

JSW Steel U. S. Steel

Kobe voestalpine

Automotive Group of the World Steel Association

WorldAutoSteel

MEMBER COMPANIES:

2

Agenda

• WorldAutoSteel Program and Legacy

• The Role of Advanced High-Strength Steels

• Steel’s Continued Potential in Automotive - Today

• Why Life Cycle Assessment?

• Future Mobility and Our Next Program

3

WorldAutoSteel Program and Legacy

Steel Industry Legacy of Commitment

ULSAB

▪ Mass savings of 25% over

the benchmark at no cost

penalty

▪ 80% High-Strength Steel

(HSS) and optimized

design

▪ First demonstration in the

world of extensive HSS use

▪ First demonstration of high

use of steel technologies

(tailored blanks,

hydroforming)

▪ Up to 46% lighter than

the average benchmark

▪ First demonstration of

ultra-thin (0.6 mm) Dual

Phase Class A surface

materials

▪ High Star Crash Ratings

potential in U.S. and Europe

▪ Affordable manufacturing

costs

▪ Fuel Efficient: 3.2 to 4.5

L/100 km or 52 to 73 MPG

▪ Environmentally

responsible: low GHG

emissions

▪ Demonstration of HSS and

Advanced HSS (AHSS)

TEC

HN

ICA

L

▪ Mass savings up to 34%

over current steel design

at no additional cost

▪ Matched the mass of

aluminum system, while

achieving 30% cost

benefit

▪ No compromise to

performance

▪ Manufacturable in

high volume at no

cost penalty

First compilation of AHSS Application Guidelines begins

1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

ULSAC ULSAS ULSAB-AVC

5

▪ UL Family of Research Technical Transfers

▪ Communication of results of Life Cycle

Assessment (LCA) Study

▪ Benchmarking analysis studies begin

▪ Advanced High-Strength Steel Application

Guidelines version1 & 2 published

TEC

HN

ICA

L

▪ Benchmarking analysis studies

continue

▪ AHSS Application Guidelines

Version 3 & 4 published

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Operating as AutoCo

BEGINS

▪ Launch of FutureSteelVehicle program at U.N. FCCC, Bali

▪ Public communications efforts begin

LCA ▪ Began advocating for LCA in vehicle regulations

Policymaker attitude: Dismissal

“It’s too new and too complicated.”

6

Steel Industry Legacy of Commitment

TEC

HN

ICA

L2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

LCA

Policymaker attitude: Conditional Acceptance

“Agreed. But how?”

Global Launch of Results Technical Transfers and Ongoing Communications

▪ State-of-the-future development process

▪ 177 kg body structure mass - 39% mass

reduction

▪ 97% use of HSS and AHSS

▪ Nearly 50% GigaPascal steels

▪ Enables 5-star safety ratings

▪ Nearly 70%Total Lifetime Emissions

Reduction

▪ Mass savings at no cost penalty

▪ Near-term production application

▪ AHSS Application

Guidelines 5.0 published

and concerted training

efforts begin

▪ Response and feedback

leads to AHSS Guidelines

6.0 publication.

▪ Research for potential next

steel applications

demonstration project

▪ Competitive and functional

benchmarking projects

continue

Awareness to Deployment

▪ Continued building LCA awareness and understanding

▪ Recognized modeling and technical resource

▪Multi-year TUB study focused on delivering viable options for LCA-based vehicle regulations.

STUDY BEGINS

7

2017 2018-20

▪ Future trends and impacts for steel in light of new mobility and regulatory environment

▪ New flagship program

Steel Industry Legacy of Commitment

More than two decades of automotive investment

8

ULSAB

UltraLight Steel Auto Body

ULSAS

UltraLight

Steel

Auto

Suspensions

ULSAB-AVC

Advanced Vehicle

ConceptsULSAC

UltraLight Steel

Auto Closures

Nature’s Way to Mobility

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1. State-of-the-future development process

2. 177 kg body structure mass - 39% mass reduction

3. 97% use of HSS and AHSS

4. Nearly 50% GigaPascal steels

5. Enables 5-star safety ratings

6. Nearly 70%Total Lifetime Emissions Reduction

7. Mass savings at no cost penalty

8. Near-term production-applicable solutions

Nature’s Way to Mobility

9

FutureSteelVehicle 97% HSS and AHSS, 50% +1000 MPa

10

DP 210/440

An Expanding Steel Materials Portfolio

IF 260/410

BH 280/400

IF 300/420

DP 300/500

FB 330/450

DP 350/600

TRIP 350/600

TRIP 400/700

HSLA 420/500

FB 450/600

TRIP 450/800

TWIP 480/900

HSLA 490/600

DP 500/800

CP 500/800

TWIP 500/980

HSLA 550/650

CP 600/900

TWIP 600/900

DP 600/980

TRIP 600/980

Q&P 650/980

CP 680/780

TPN 680/780

HSLA 700/780

DP 700/1000

CP 750/900

TPN 750/900

DP 750/980

TRIP 750/980

TWIP 750/1000

CP 800/1000

DP 800/1180

CP 850/1180

MS 950/1200

TWIP 950/1200

CP 1000/1200

MS 1050/1470

CP 1050/1470

HF 1050/1500

DP 1150/1270

MS 1150/1400

HF 1200/1900

MS 1250/1500

2002 ULSAB AVC Grades

2011 FutureSteelVehicle

2017 AHSS Guidelines

Continued Steel Reinvention

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Advanced High-Strength Steels Application Guidelines

12

Version 6.0 includes:

▪ Compilation of the latest global best

practices

▪ Stress-strain curves publicly available

▪ Detailed discussions of metallurgy and

manufacturing processes

▪ Addresses tough forming and joining

issues

The Role of Advanced High-Strength Steels

2016-17 Chevy Cruz Redesign at GM/Opel for China

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Source: Eckhardt/Kupper 2014 Aachen Body Engineering Presentation

2018 Honda Accord, ACE™ Body Structure“Highest UHSS Content” to Date in any Honda Vehicle

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2018 Honda Accord▪ 29% UHSS

▪ 54.2% High-Strength Steel (above 400 MPa)

▪ 110-176 lbs/50-80 kg lighter than its

predecessor

▪ Improved crash energy absorption

▪ body torsional and bending rigidity are

improved 32 and 24 percent, respectively

▪ Named 2018 Car of the Year

2018 Kia Forte

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2019 Chevy Silverado

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Automaker Adoption of AHSS for EV

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Chevy Bolt/Opel Ampera-eSource: Chevrolet Media

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Tesla 3Source: Tesla Motors

Automaker Adoption of AHSS for EV

Steel’s Continued Potential in Automotive - Today

Auto Mass Benchmarking

▪ When comparing steel components of

the same size and function, there is a

considerable range of mass.

▪ When compared to an efficient steel

design, the mass savings gap with

aluminum significantly reduces and in

some cases reverses.

▪ Mass saving achieved at the component

level due to material substitution is often

not realized at the system level.

▪ Investigate robustness

▪ Track changes over time

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Bo

dy

Stru

ctu

re M

ass

kg

Area m2

Body Structure Mass

A=7.5 m2Variability in structure mass of

similarly sized componentsA=7.5 m2

Possible opportunity for

mass reduction using steel

grades available now

Key observations

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Example: Body Structure

23

Key observations

40%-3.2kg

19%-1.1kg

Key observations

24

Auto Mass Benchmarking Conclusions

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There is yet untapped mass savings potential with steel – today!

Safety LightweightingEnvironmental

EfficiencyAffordability

Report available free at www.worldautosteel.org

Variety in underbody load paths implies optimal configuration not yet identified

BEV structural load

paths across

production vehicles

Battery Electric Benchmarking Study:

Snapshot from 2018 Study

26

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New Requirements

demand

New Solutions.

Battery Electric Benchmarking Study:

Snapshot from 2018 Study

Why Life Cycle Assessment?

Driving The Industry: Stringent Regulation

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A hole in the tailpipe approach

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Current Vehicle Emissions

Focus

LCA-Based Vehicle Emissions

Focus

Fuel/Energy Use(Tailpipe Emissions)

Fuel CycleVehicle ManufactureMaterial, Powertrain & Components Manufacture

Raw Material Extraction

End of Life Recycling and

Disposal

A more costly approach yields a less favorable result for the environment.

- 6%

+ 7%

Life Cycle Emissions

Toyota Venza

Driving (Use) Phase

Emissions

Lotus Engineering Study -

High Development Body Structure

UC-Davis

LCA evaluation

Need for LCA - Actual vs Expected Emissions

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The problem: Unintended Consequences

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Material Production GHG comparison for a functionally

equivalent component - typical example

Mild Steel

Aluminium

Magnesium

Carbon FRP

AHSS

Mid-Range

CO2e

Estimated Part

Weight (kg)

2.3 100

2.3 75

16.5 67

46.0 50

22.0 45

2300

990

1106

173

230

(kg CO2e)

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Participation In Key Industry And Environmental Activities

• Leading Universities - Funding automotive and LCA research

Partnerships Around the Globe

Future Mobility and our Next Program

Future Trends in Mobility 2030+

Cooperation Partners WorldAutoSteel

• FKA - Germany

• Automobility - Shanghai

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From conventional mobility to Automated Mobility as a Service„Mobility as a service“: Important step towards automated mobility

Conventional mobility

• Internal Combustion Engines

• Privatley owned vehicles

• Basically only source of revenuefor OEM (incl. aftersalesservices)

• All regions and environment(urban, extra-urban)

• Broad portfolio of conventionalvehicle segments

Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

Carsharing

▪ Fully electric

▪ Owned by mobility providers& OEM

▪ User drives

▪ Mainly urban use cases

▪ Mainly small and compact vehicle segments

Ridehailing, incl. Ride-Pooling

▪ Conventional propulsion & BEV

▪ Owned by mobility providers & OEM

▪ Chaffeur / driver

▪ Urban & extra-urban use cases

▪ All vehicle segments

Automated Mobility

as a Service (AMaaS)

▪ Congruence of CarSharing and

RideHailing

▪ Fully electric

▪ Fully automated: “robot”

chauffeur

▪ Route optimization

▪ Urban & extra-urban use cases

▪ All vehicle segments, depending

on “level of privacy”

2030 + (future trends & impacts)2010 2020 +

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▪ The objective for future

vehicles and mobility in

general is EFFIENCY,

SAFETY and

AUTOMATIZATION.

▪ Central questions:

▪ What are the particular

goals for the industry

branch?

▪ What possible

approaches exist and

what measures need to

be taken?

▪ What are the pending

challenges?

▪ What is the impact of

these developments on

the automotive value

chain, e.g. on material

suppliers?

ProspectsMegatrends affecting the automotive industry

Global megatrends effect efficiency, safety and automatizationstrategies in the automotive industry

Megatrends

Topics of

researchEfficiency AutomizationSafety

Driven by

Customer / marketLegislation Digitization

Environmental

protection Urbanization Cultural change

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Program “Electric Mobility“ one million EV in 2020 and six million EV in 2030

National Commitments cause a disengagement from the combustion engine in the automotive industry

Program “eMobility quota” 10% minimum quota in 2019, 12% in 2020. 40 to 50 percent of new registrations in 2030 are EV.

Program “Driving the future today” starting in 2040 – no new licensing of vehicles powered by combustion engine

CARB California “binding quotas for electric vehicles (ZEV, TZEV)” – adopted in 15 other US states

“Until 2025 a significant part of the vehicle fleet has to be electrified to reach the legislative target”

Exclusively electric vehicles are licensed starting in the mid of 2020.

Consequent strategy and a stated political will to facilitate electric mobility. Emissions reduced in the height of 41 to 45 %

between 2012 and 2025

Phase out fossil-fueled freight transport by 2030. No new registrations of fossil-fueled personal vehicles.

Starting in 2025 no new licensing of vehicles powered by combustion engine; In 2050 traffic shall be all electric powered.

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“We intensively work on increasing the rate of electric vehicles up to 20 percent of production in 2025.

We oblige ourselves to this task and are convinced that we succeed”

Existing Megatrends have an impact on the efficiency and future mobility roadmap of premium OEM

“Of top priority we look forward to 25 percent electric vehicles in 2025”

“The upcoming „BMW I-Next“ in 2021 is supposed to be a major step up to autonomous driving”

“We are continuing to pursue our vision of accident-free driving, and this ambitious aim can only be achieved

through many smaller steps, culminating in the autonomously driving car”

“In 10 years, more than a half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States”

“There will not be a steering wheel in 20 years, almost all cars produced will be autonomous”

“In 2019 every new model is equipped with an electric motor. One million electric vehicles in 2025”

“Self-driving cars have an enormous potential, our first unsupervised autonomous vehicles will be in the market by

2021”

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Not only premium OEM are developing the field of (A)MaaS –This demonstrates the volume relevance of developmentsExamples from Volkswagen

Premium

Volume

e.g. DriveNow

e.g. Car2Go

▪ Launched in 2016, located in Berlin,

Hamburg and Helsinki

▪ Currently establishing a ridepooling service

▪ Goal: One of the world’s leading mobility

provider by 2025.

▪ Ride-pooling service via smart phone app,

with a medium-term perspective as a

automated vehicle mobility service.

▪ Principle of „virtual bus stops“ (max. distance

250 m) guarantees efficient integration into

traffic and efficient pooling.

▪ 100 % subsidiary of Volkswagen

▪ Launched in 2018, located in Berlin

▪ Develop and offer „Zero-Emission“-

Carsharing-Services

▪ Goal: to make life in cities calmer, greener

and more attractive.

▪ Service WeShare will start in 2019 in Berlin,

from 2020 in further European and North

American cities.

▪ Flexibility: WeShare covers different mobility

needs within one ServiceSource: VW, UMI, MOIA

e.g. Moia

e.g. Monet

e.g. Renault

Mobility

e.g. Free2Move

e.g. e-share

4040

Premium

Volume

e.g. DriveNow

e.g. Car2Go

e.g. Moia

▪ "Toyota is transforming from an auto making company into a mobility-

related services company“ (Akio Toyoda, Toyota President, October 2018)

▪ Toyota Motor and SoftBank Group are set to launch a joint venture, Monet

Technologies, to offer mobility services, including ride-hailing, by the end

of March 2019

▪ Monet will merge Toyota's connected car technology and data collected

from SoftBank's smartphones and sensor devices.

▪ By the mid-2020s, they plan to develop an autonomous vehicle, the "e-

Palette“, which will be used for taxis, driverless delivery vehicles and

services like ride-hailing.

▪ They will also launch a service, Autono-MaaS, which will use the e-Palette

▪ The two companies aim to expand globally in the future.

Strategy of Toyota

Source: asia.nikkei.com

e.g. Monet

e.g. Renault

Mobility

e.g. Free2Move

e.g. e-share

Not only premium OEM are developing the field of (A)MaaS –This demonstrates the volume relevance of developmentsExamples from Volkswagen

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The transition is driven by enormous investments worldwideExample: Latest Investments in (A)MaaS by Softbank

99 taxis

$100 M

Uber

$9.3 B Cruise

$2.3 B Mythic

$40 M

AI Brain

$114 M

NAuto

$159 M

mapbox

$164 M

Auto1

$460 M

Didi

$5 B

Ola

$2 B

Grab

$500 M

Innoviz

$73 M

Softbank Vision Fund > 100 Billion USD, concentrating on Mobility as a Service

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Future Trends in Mobility 2030+

• WorldAutoSteel future programs to address global mobility trends and developments.

• Asia important player and will drive change globally.

• Strong focus on environmental performance and assessment of materials.

• WorldAutoSteel to continue to cooperate with global partners to provide state-of-the-art expertise to position steel as the material of choice.

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Conclusions

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“Mediocrity is not worth the trip.” Sergio Marchionne, late CEO, FCA