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© 2016 IHS MARKIT© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Latest Global Fuel Economy and CO2 Compliance PrognosisA focus on China, Europe, and the United States
AUTOMOTIVE
Andrew Fulbrook, Director. Global – Powertrain and Compliance
P: +44 (0) 20 3159 3455
27 October 2016 | Shanghai, China
Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit
AGENDA 3
REGULATORY PERFORMANCE IN 2015 Enacted regulation 4 U.S CAFÉ performance 6 EU28 CO2 performance 8 China CAFC performance 9
REGULATORY PROPOSALS BEYOND 2015 Target trajectory convergence 11 United States 12 EU28 13 China 14Challenges and consequences 15
IHS MARKIT REGULATORY 2020–21 PERFORMANCE FORECAST Forecast methodology 18 What is VPaC? 19 US CAFÉ, EU28 CO2, China CAFC 20
BASELINE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS Technology demand prognosis –Global 22 Why 48V MHEV? 23
SUMMARY Summary 27
2
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 3
Enacted regulationConvergence began in 2015
Regulatory performance in 2015
Gap closed to 40g/km eqv.
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 4
Source: IHS Markit
• It is necessary to meet the target, or face a penalty?
• Hardware is ready for the regulation, but is the consumer?
• Follow the methodology of developed markets
• Lack of clarity causes planning issues
• Coming from a low base and so proportionately much harder to reach target than developed markets
• Plan for the fuel consumption regulation, but no details now
• Very cost sensitive markets, and slow to introduce regulation
Done
Doing
Planning
Enacting regulationMatching the mature market target is one thing; executing is another
Regulatory performance in 2015Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 5
• Four manufacturers in MY2015 were significantly over-complying, generating credits to add to an already large credit bank
• “US Motors” as a whole over-complied in MY2015 at 36.7 miles per gallon (mpg)
• Five manufacturers that needed to spend/purchase credits in order to comply and are behind the curve in preparation for the next MY cyclesSource: IHS Markit VPaC
Regulatory performance in 2015
US CAFE performanceModel year (MY) 2015 passenger car fleet by manufacturer
MY2015 target
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 6
Source: IHS Markit VPaC
Regulatory performance in 2015
US CAFE performanceMY2015 light truck fleet by manufacturer
Source: IHS Markit VPaC
• Five truck manufacturers in MY2015 were over-complying, generating credits for future use, or to sell to those below the line
• “US Motors” as a whole come close, but did not quite achieve target in MY2015 at 26.2 mpg
• Four volume manufacturers that needed to spend/purchase credits in order to comply and are behind the curve in preparation for the next MY cycles
MY2015 target
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT
• Diesel downsized engine with significant mass actions• Mostly in A- and B-segments, MPVs• SUV market is slowly being explored
• Sales in A- and B-segments are compensating high take rates of SUVs
• Noticeable improvements from start-stop system
7
Regulatory performance in 2015
EU CO2 performanceCalendar year (CY) 2015 passenger car fleet
CY2015 target
• An intensely competitive Europe met the 2015 average CO2 target, achieving a status of 119.6 g/km.
• The average mass of new cars sold in the European Union (1381 kg) remained broadly the same as compared with 2014.
• Diesel made up 52% of EU sales, with a 50% sales increase for BEVs compared with 2014. However, overall PHEV and BEV share was just 1.3%.
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
Regulatory performance in 2015
China CAFC performanceCY2015 passenger car fleet—domestic and import
Source: IHS Markit VPaC
CY2015 target(s)
• A number of low volume manufacturers in CY2015 missed Phase 3 compliance, yet encouragingly, a larger amount of manufacturers, both domestic and imports complied, some of them significantly, proving that they have the tech strategy ready for Phase 4
• “China Motors” as a whole hit the precise target of 6.9L in 2015
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit
AGENDA 3
REGULATORY PERFORMANCE IN 2015 Enacted regulation 4 US CAFÉ performance 6 EU28 CO2 performance 8 China CAFC performance 9
REGULATORY PROPOSALS BEYOND 2015 Target trajectory convergence 11 United States 12 EU28 13 China 14Challenges and consequences 15
IHS MARKIT REGULATORY 2020–21 PERFORMANCE FORECAST Forecast methodology 18 What is VPaC? 19 US CAFÉ, EU28 CO2, China CAFC 20
BASELINE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS Technology demand prognosis –Global 22 Why 48V MHEV? 23
SUMMARY Summary 27
9
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 10
150
140
130
120
110
100
902015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
KSA: 142g/km in 2020Mexico: 145g/km in 2016
Brazil: 138g/km in 2017
India: 130g/km in 2017
Korea: 97g/km in 2020US & Canada: 97g/km in 2025
Japan: 122g/km in 2020
China: 164g/km in 2015
EU: 120g/km in 2015
India: 113g/km in 2022
EU: 95g/km in 2020
China: 117g/km in 2020
China: 95g/km in 2025
Regulatory proposals beyond 2015Target trajectory convergenceMarkets start to align below 100g/km equivalent
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 11
175 g/mile of CO2 in 2025 46.3 mpg in 2025 (unadjusted)
37–39 mpg (real world)• Fleet car/truck mix• 2012 final rule was 67/33% in 2025• Reference for TAR is 52/48% in 2025
• Footprint based standards will likely not change• TAR shows that MY 2022–25 standards can be achieved through advanced gasoline vehicle
technologies• Low-cost electrification
Regulatory proposals beyond 2015United States currently reviewing its regulationCAFÉ and GHG midterm review TAR process
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 12
Regulatory proposals beyond 2015EU28 always reviewing its regulation2015 thru 2030 pegged at 48% reduction max
Image Source: Institute for Automotive Engineering (ika), RWTH Aachen University, Germany (2015 Aachen conference)Data Source: EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY (EEA) Monitoring CO2 emissions from passenger cars and vans Copenhagen, Denmark, 2015
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit 13
FC V W CAFC corporateaveragefuelconsumption
ForPHEVs*andEVs2016‐2017W 52018‐2019W 32020W 2
Energysavingvehicle*2016‐2017W 3.02018‐2019W 2.52020W 1.5
Notes: PHEV should meet E-range>= 50KMEnergy saving vehicle should meeting the fuel consumption <=2.8L/100km
3.0X
Regulatory proposals beyond 2015China Phase IV now releasedAttention now turns to 4L for Phase V for 2025?
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 14
Road load Dyno test Technology* Driver
Best aero, mass, and tire
Worst and best aero, mass, and tire
Start temp: 20–30°C
Start temp: 23 +/-5°CPlan for 14°C in EU
*Source: AVL Tech Day 2014
Source: Lab Protocol TUV
Now
2017 onward
Regulatory proposals beyond 2015
Challenges and consequences An example—Moving to WLTP has four dimensions, not easy for the OEM
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
CY2014
CY2015
CY2016
CY2017
CY2018
CY2019
CY2020
CY2021
CY2022
CY2023
CY2024
CY2025
CY2026
CY2027
CY2028
April 2015 Fcst Diesel Pass Car Sales % April 2016 Fcst Diesel Pass Car Sales %April 2016 Fcst EU28 MHEV Pass Car Sales % April 2016 Fcst EU28 PHEV Pass Car Sales %
Source: VPaC Technology Analytics
© 2016 IHS Markit
Pas
sen
ger
car
-d
iese
l m
arke
t sh
are
(EU
28
)
MH
EV a
nd
PH
EV m
arke
t sh
are
(EU
28
)
NEDC target 95 g CO2/km WLTC CO2 target
Regulatory proposals beyond 2015
Challenges and consequences How WLTP, NOX,and CO2 are now changing the diesel landscape in Europe
EU7+ CO2 targetFull WLTPRDE CF 1.5RDE CF 2.1 WLTC kick-off
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
Contents
© 2016 IHS MARKIT
AGENDA 3
REGULATORY PERFORMANCE IN 2015 Enacted regulation 4 US CAFÉ performance 6 EU28 CO2 performance 8 China CAFC performance 9
REGULATORY PROPOSALS BEYOND 2015 Target trajectory convergence 11 United States 12 EU28 13 China 14Challenges and consequences 15
IHS MARKIT REGULATORY 2020–21 PERFORMANCE FORECAST Forecast methodology 18 What is VPaC? 19 US CAFÉ, EU28 CO2, China CAFC 20
BASELINE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS Technology demand prognosis –Global 22 Why 48V MHEV? 23
SUMMARY Summary 27
16
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 17
Source: IHS Markit
Vehicle production
Plant composition
OEM objectives
Consumer preference analysis
CERA scenariosShutdown effects
Supply chain logistics
Tooling investments
Legislation, regulation, and taxation
ICE powertrain production and
sales
Legislation regulation and taxation
Energy storage
Infrastructure
Incentives and credits
Fuel price
Mech tech
xEVProduction and sales
IHS Markit regulatory 2020–21 performance forecast
Forecast methodologyOverarching boundary considerations
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 18
Forecasts for 61,000 unique vehicle-
powertrain combinations
Up to 200 technical attributes per vehicle
• VPaC is a web-based vehicle energy and performance analytics software suite.
• Vehicle energy demand versus propulsion energy are computed for all possible vehicle fleet combinations.
• The software is designed for strategy planning and competitive vehicle analysis.
• Drawing on IHS Automotive SBPT as input, it considers entire forecast fleets and individual vehicles, not just current fleets or single-vehicle simulations.
• VPaC puts CO2, FC and FE computation into the competitive context and expands the appeal beyond traditional engineering.
IHS Markit regulatory 2020–21 performance forecast
What is VPaC?Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 19
• Some manufacturers are very close toPhase 4; we see the correct strategy atthe right time; incentives tweak required
• However, clearly some manufacturers arenot planning effectively for thecompliance challenge. Similar to the US inthat much greater NEV is required, butenough consumer pull is hard to envisage
IHS Markit regulatory 2020–21 performance forecast
US CAFE, EU28 CO2, China CAFCPassenger car only
Source: VPaC Compliance
CY2021 target
CY2020 target(s)
MY2021 target
• Some manufacturers will comply inEurope given our baseline tech splitforecast, although the fleet as a whole isexpected to miss by 10%
• However, we can quite easily envisage theEU28 fleet complying to 95g with someminor adjustments to mix. 2025 becomesthe challenge for Europe
• The most challenging geography. Macroconditions lead to a tech demand splitforecast that is not conducive tocompliance. Much greater electrification isthe solution, but the demand pull is hard toenvisage
• Having said this, there are three OEMs thatdespite the macro environment, arecoming from such a high base that theywill comply
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit
AGENDA 3
REGULATORY PERFORMANCE IN 2015 Enacted regulation 4 US CAFÉ performance 6 EU28 CO2 performance 8 China CAFC performance 9
REGULATORY PROPOSALS BEYOND 2015 Target trajectory convergence 11 United States 12 EU28 13 China 14Challenges and consequences 15
IHS MARKIT REGULATORY 2020–21 PERFORMANCE FORECAST Forecast methodology 18 What is VPaC? 19 US CAFÉ, EU28 CO2, China CAFC 20
BASELINE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS Technology demand prognosis –Global 22 Why 48V MHEV? 23
SUMMARY Summary 27
20
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
EV
PHEV
GD
I-T
Die
sel
A8+ CVT
DCT
AW
D/4
WD
CY2015 CY2025
21
Baseline technology forecasts
Technology demand prognosis – GlobalMajor technology sets only – passenger car & SUV sales
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
EV
PHEV
GD
I-T
Die
sel
A8+ CVT
DCT
AW
D/4
WD
CY2015 CY2025
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
EV
PHEV
GD
I-T
Die
sel
A8+ CVT
DCT
AW
D/4
WD
CY2015 CY2025
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 22
• 12V provides very limited scope to reduce CO2. High voltage is expensive. Hence, the right blendis of mild hybrid with different cost-benefit ratio to encourage CO2 reduction.
• Up to 15% fuel economy improvement, with Load offset and Better energy harvesting
12V
48V belt
48V crank
ChargingStart-stop
RecuperationSlow speed start-stopTorque boost
Torque assist and boostStart-stop < 20KphE-sailing, coasting, creeping
Fuel economy benefit
Baseline technology forecasts
Why 48v MHEV?More than just a stepping stone and its globally applicable
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
48V M
HEV
EU
28Sal
es
48V M
HEV
U.S
Sal
es
48V M
HEV
Chi
naSal
es
CY2015 CY2025
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS MARKIT 23
E-water pump
E-fan
E-fuel pump
E-clutch
E-turbo
E-oil pump
Infotainment and HMI
Navigation and speaker
Pre-heating
Lights
Windscreen and wiper
Seats
E-compressor
E-vacuum pump
E-steering pump
E-catalyst
Interior fan
Active aerodynamic
Powertrain Vehicle Load offset
Baseline technology forecasts
Why 48v MHEV?A variety of configurations capturing non-traditional suppliers
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
China Gov. target in 2020:NEV annual production = 2 million(Passenger Car + LCV + HCV)
24
Source: IHS Markit0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.20.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.30.1 0.4
1.42.4
3.34.5
6.5
8.7
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Plug-In Hybrid+
Battery EV
Mild Hybrid+
Full Hybrid
China government definition for NEV• Benefit in CAFC• Subsidy by government
China government definition for energy-saving vehicle• Benefit in CAFC• Subsidy by some local government
Units: Million vehicles
Policy orientationPHEV+BEV
Market orientationMild Hybrid/48V
Tier1 promote and play important role in 48V
Initial stage for xEVDemo application
PHEV+BEV=0.21M in 2015 0.4L/100km FC reduction
Baseline technology forecasts
Why 48v MHEV?Policy vs. cost vs. consumer – The rise of the MHEV in China
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit
AGENDA 3
REGULATORY PERFORMANCE IN 2015 Enacted regulation 4 US CAFÉ performance 6 EU28 CO2 performance 8 China CAFC performance 9
REGULATORY PROPOSALS BEYOND 2015 Target trajectory convergence 11 United States 12 EU28 13 China 14Challenges and consequences 15
IHS MARKIT REGULATORY 2020–21 PERFORMANCE FORECAST Forecast methodology 18 What is VPaC? 19 US CAFÉ, EU28 CO2, China CAFC 20
BASELINE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS Technology demand prognosis –Global 22 Why 48V MHEV? 23
SUMMARY Summary 27
25
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
• Global vehicle CO2, fuel economy, and fuel consumption regulations are continually tightening, resulting in significant increases in research and development spending and planning complexity.
• A sole focus on internal combustion engine (ICE) improvement will not be sufficient to achieve the upcoming targets in United States, EU28, or China. Electrification and vehicle measures reducing rolling resistance and aero drag are required.
• CO2 emissions reduction technologies also add costs to vehicles for being CO2 compliant. Therefore, every type of electrification is monitored by car manufacturers and potential car buyers with regard to its cost-benefit ratio.
• WLTC introduction is expected to reduce the gap between certified and real-world fuel economy CO2figures. However, overall vehicle development costs will likely increase.
• Scenarios developed using VPaC show that the industry HAS the hardware to meet the regulation, but not the consumer demand in our baseline scenario.
• It is particularly hard to envisage the necessary consumer demand being present in the United States.
26
Summary
SummaryIn general
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit
• CAFC regulation now dominates the technology roadmap for auto manufacturers in China.
• Both joint venture and domestic OEM’s in China are facing serious challenges to meet the CAFC regulation in 2020 and 2025, although the joint ventures will leverage oversees experience and hardware sets.
• The luxury/premium vehicle has a proportionately stronger compliance headwind compared to volume manufacturers, despite the margin available to spend.
• Neither traditional technology nor NEV on its own will be enough to meet the CAFC regulation separately in 2020 and 2025. A difficult consumer pull outlook for NEV’s will result in OEM’s and the government needing to lean on the ESV (Energy Saving Vehicle).
• Comprehensive solutions will lead to more complex technology roadmap for OEM’s; increasingly, planners need to consider the balance of consumption, performance, cost, and regulation.
27
Summary
SummarySpecific to China
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | 27 October 2016
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