Automotive Analysis Division Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: 2007 Results University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Automotive

Automotive Analysis Division

Powertrain Strategies Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: 2007 Resultsfor the 21st Century: 2007 Results

University of MichiganTransportation Research Institute

Automotive Analysis Division (formerly OSAT)

Bruce M. BelzowskiAssociate Director and Assistant Research Scientist

Sponsored by:Denso Corporation

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency


Powertrain Strategies Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Centuryfor the 21st Century

A research project focused on providing the global automotive industry

with insights into the future of powertrains

• A continuing study measuring expert opinions over many years

• A global study measuring experts opinions separately across North America, EU, and Asia



What makes this study unique?

• Global panel of powertrain experts

• Annual updates of forecasts and deep dives into current topics

• All electronic survey administration and report out.

•Weighted responses based on expertise of respondent and new methods to measure point estimates for forecasts


2007 Expert Survey2007 Expert Survey

Sample Respondents:

36 managers20 CEOs, presidents, and vice-presidents 28 chief engineers and directors14 researchers and scientists 25 engineers and technicians

Sample Respondents:

29 manufacturers45 suppliers44 other experts


CAFECAFE


3.5

3.2

3.7

3.8

4.1

3.3

4.1

3.5

1 2 3 4 5

Feasibility

Success

Mandates and tax incentives are considered the most feasible, while gas taxes and mandates are considered the most successful

Mandates (e.g. CAFE)

Tax Incentives

Gas Taxes

Feebates

Policy Instruments

Less Feasible/Successful

More Feasible/Successful


38

33

27.5

0 10 20 30 40

Experts in 2006 reported the CAFE standard for passenger cars wouldincrease 20% by 2015 and 38% by 2020

Miles Per Gallon

2020

2015

2006*

*Source:NHTSA CAFE Standard


31

27

21.6

0 10 20 30 40Miles Per Gallon

2020

2015

2006*

In 2006, the CAFE standard for light trucks was expected to increase 25% by 2015 and 44% by 2020

*Source:NHTSA CAFE Standard


3.3

3.9

1 2 3 4 5

Foreign-owned manufacturers are considered more likely to meet the new CAFE goals

Foreign Owned Manufacturers

Less Likely to Meet CAFE goals

More Likely to meet CAFE goals

US Manufacturers


Fuel PricesFuel Prices

(Influenced by a fleet CAFE of (Influenced by a fleet CAFE of 35 mpg using an attribute-based 35 mpg using an attribute-based

System)System)


$5.49

$5.06

$2.53

1 2 3 4 5

The predicted price of unleaded regular gas for 2020 has increased by 8% in one year

Price Per Gallon

2020 (2007)

2020 (2006)

2006*

*Source:Energy Information Administration (Jan~Dec ’06)


$5.99

$5.53

$2.74

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

The predicted price of unleaded premium gas for 2020 has increased by 8% in one year

Price Per Gallon

2020 (2007)

2020 (2006)

2006*

*Source:Energy Information Administration (Jan~Dec ’06)


$8.67

$7.97

$4.41

$4.06

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

=

Dollars per Gallon

Unleaded

Experts report a wide range of possible prices for fuel in 2020

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

Premium

Lower Bound

Upper Bound


Consumer Fuel Sensitivity in 2006 was rated close to current fuel prices in 2007

Consumer Fuel Sensitivity

At $3.95 per gallon, consumers will make fuel economy a primary concern in vehicle purchase.


49

23

18

5

3

59

18

16

4

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

In 2006, experts predicted growth in diesel and ethanol fuel for passenger cars for 2015 and 2020

Percent Penetration

Type of Fuel

Diesel/Biodiesel

Ethanol (>10% ethanol)

Unleaded

LPG/CNG

Hydrogen

2015

2020


40

36

17

5

2

50

30

15

4

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

The dominance of unleaded fuel in light trucks is expected to decrease with the increase of diesel and other fuels

2015

2020

Type of Fuel

Diesel/Biodiesel

Ethanol(>10% ethanol)

Unleaded

LPG/CNG

Hydrogen

Percent Penetration


57

20

13

3

2

45

30

18

5

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2020 (2006)

2020 (2007)

In 2007, experts see continued growth in diesel and ethanol fuel use for light duty vehicles to reach CAFE goals for 2020

Percent Penetration

Type of Fuel

Diesel/Biodiesel

Ethanol (>10% ethanol)

Unleaded

LPG/CNG

Hydrogen


PowerplantsPowerplants

(Influenced by a fleet CAFE of (Influenced by a fleet CAFE of 35 mpg using an attribute-based 35 mpg using an attribute-based

System)System)


45

27

18

5

3

2

58

21

15

3

2

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

In 2006, the share of diesel and hybrid powerplants in passenger cars was expected to gain share from spark-ignited powerplants

Type of Powerplant

HCCI

Hybrid(plug-in/mild/diesel/full)

Fuel Cell

Electric

Advanced Diesel

Spark-Ignited

2015

2020

Percent Penetration


40

28

24

4

2

1

51

25

17

3

2

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

In 2006, the decrease in spark-ignited powerplants in light trucks was represented in the increase in hybrid and advanced diesel powerplants

2015

2020

Type of Powerplant

HCCI

Hybrid

Fuel Cell

Electric

Advanced Diesel

Spark-Ignited

Percent Penetration


52

16

24

3

2

2

43

28

21

5

3

2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2020 (2006)

2020 (2007)

In 2007, experts report continued growth of hybrid and diesel powertrains for light duty vehicles for 2020

Type of Powerplant

HCCI

Hybrid

Fuel Cell

Electric

Advanced Diesel

Spark-Ignited

Percent Penetration


What would the 2020 powertrain distribution in light duty vehicles look like based on a sales year such as 2007?

~ 16 million Light Duty

Vehicles in 2007 Fuel Cell 2% (320,000)

Electric 2% (320,000)

16% (2,560,000)

52% (8,320,000)

HCCI 3% (480,000)

24% (3,840,000)

Spark-Ignited Engine

Hybrid

Advanced Diesel


Strategies and Technologies:Strategies and Technologies:Weight Reduction and Battery LifeWeight Reduction and Battery Life


31

18

14

14

9

3

3

2

2

23

22

21

11

7

4

3

2

1

0 10 20 30

In 2006, experts reported a significant increase in the use of lithium-based batteries by 2015 and

2020Type of Energy Storage

Zinc-Air

Ultracapacitors

Nickel-Metal Hydride

Nickel-Cadmium

Lithium Polymer

Hydraulics

Flywheels

Lithium Ion

Lead-Acid

2015

2020

Percent Penetration


8

7

7

5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Experts expect advanced batteries to last at least 7-8 years by 2020

Type of Energy Storage

Nickel-Metal Hydride

Lithium Polymer

Lithium Ion

Lead-Acid

Years of Life


4.6

4.0

3.0

2.3

1 2 3 4 5

=

Taking out 20 percent of the weight of a vehicle by 2020 will be difficult

20%

15%

10%

5%

Less Likely to be Able to Reduce

Weight

More Likely to Able to Reduce Weight



• Other areas of analysis from 2006 study:• Alternative powerplants development challenges• Powertrain development cycles• Engine re-designs• Powertrain and Drivetrain Technologies• Number of cylinders• Diesel and spark-ignited engine technolgies• Super-charged and turbo-charged engines• Transmission mix• Drivetrain configurations• Electrical and electronic costs

• Human resource issues



• Other areas of analysis from the 2007 study:

• Advantages and disadvantages of E85 ethanol• Because of CAFE, the changes manufacturers must make in powertrain, design, and product strategy• The state of charge swing for advanced batteries • Additional costs of alternative powertrains• Globalization of powertrains• After-treatment technology penetration



•NEW Research Program:

Powertrain Innovation in the 21st Century

• A National Science Foundation Grant• Studying the powertrain innovation process• How do companies develop the capabilities to create new products?• How do they partner with other companies in the R&D process?• How do companies manage their R&D portfolio to sustain competitive advantage?


UMTRI-AADUMTRI-AAD•Upcoming Event:

UMTRI-AAD Automotive Luncheon

Monday, April 7, 2008Noon to 1:30pm

University of Michigan League

Topic:

The Cost of Improving Fuel Economy for CAFE


UMTRI-AADUMTRI-AAD•Upcoming Event:

Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future Automotive Industry

Tuesday, April 8, 20089am to 5pm

University of Michigan, Rackham Auditorium, 1st Floor

Recent Research on:•The changing manufacturer landscape •Near term buyer preferences •New labor developments •Manufacturing capabilities •R&D and intellectual property developments •Vehicle and road safety statistics•Trends in imports/exports



Bruce Belzowski

UMTRI/AAD 734-936-2704

[email protected]

Documents

Automotive Analysis Division Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: 2007 Results University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Automotive