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01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll
by Jean-Claude G. RipollCommission Aéronautique Civile (CAC)
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
Automation for flight control:Automation for flight control:an elementary and philosophicalan elementary and philosophical
approach.approach.
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll
PlanPlan
IntroductionFlight automationHuman and automationSafety and automationAutomation and systemConclusion
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 2
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IntroductionIntroductionaim of the tentativeaim of the tentative
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
3
More automation is ineluctable,consistent with general evolution of the world, is desirable to increase global efficiency,deserves a systematic approach.
Aim of the tentative is a methodic approach, in view of:- clarifying the ways used in automating the flight- proposing a structured target for a future mainly automated air transport system
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IntroductionIntroductionbasic principles basic principles
For ethical, societal, legal reasons we consider that:There will always be a human on board to represent the crew and share the
fate of the passengers, with the authority to intervene in the conduct of theflight. But the role of this person has changed from its historical one.
Steps are being taken to ensure the permanence of this function.
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 4
There is no real decision in the absence of doubt.
If the machine knows better what is to be done, let the machine do it.
The essential skill expected from human in charge is judgment in incertitude on
“what to do now ?”.
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Flight automationFlight automation
Note: hereafter a “robot” is in fact a software.in usual language the entire aircraft is the “robot”.
An “automaton” purely execute a program based on given parameters.A “robot” is able to draw updated information and to adapt its
program.
The robot is able to handle the unexpected, but cannot handle theunforeseen events which have not been programmed.
The controlling human operator should easily take over
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 5
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 6
actuatorscontrol
Surfaces, throttlepositions
objective
velocity changes
local flight path
maneuver
mission
load factor, turningrate, speed
Air trajectory
next trafficposition
long term trafficposition The whole flight is the
intregrale of aéro-thermodynamical effects ofeffectors steering (engines,mobile surfaces, etc.).
Flight automationFlight automation
Building a flight Building a flight (ground taxiing excluded)(ground taxiing excluded)
1
2
3
4
5
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Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flight: 5 modesConducting the flight: 5 modes
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 7
manipulations column, throttle, ..
commande
movements(velocity changes)
flight path
manœuvre
mission
side stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Long termtraffic position
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
control laws(augmenters)
servomechanisms
Long term objectivenumerical description
executionby machines
INFOCCO MTOATC traffic
Mode 5
Mode 4
Mode 3
Mode 2
Mode 1
Hierarchicalarchitecture ofautomatisms
automatisms
human
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Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flightConducting the flightmode 5mode 5 by missionby mission (full automatic)(full automatic)
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 8
manipula-tions column, throttle, ..
commande
movements
flight path
manœuvre
mission
mini stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Long termtraffic position
executionby machines
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
control laws
servomechanisms
Long term objectivenumerical description
The « substitute robot » isable to observe externalinformation, advices,constraints ( SOP,ATM/ATC, meteo, traffic,environment)
MTO
executionby machines
ATCCCOtraffic
Consequences on board staffing and
staff occupation
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Flight automationFlight automationTheoretical approach:Theoretical approach:design (and later usage) rulesdesign (and later usage) rules
Rule # 1 position identifiedRule # 2 hierarchical architectureRule # 3 comprehensivenessRule # 4 to « level n-1 », and NOT to « level n-2 ».
sub: keep on until human action.Rule # 5 running only if completed
sub: minimal form.consequence: automatic checking, modelization
Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 9
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Human and automationHuman and automation
10
• Humain• « Fabrication » hors finalité• Population candidate limitée, diversité• Culture, Éducation (sentiments, langue, rapports sociaux)• Formation: enseignement et inculcation sur niveaux supérieurs• Fonctionnement contingent (stress, fatigue, simulateur,…)• Physiologie circadienne individualisée• Pas de conscience de sa panne propre, dysfonctionne
• Non déterministe, approximatif• Pugnace, inventif, donc peut être obsédé, obstiné• Cerveau relativement lent (flux et traitement)• Capteurs naturels permanents sensoriels limités• Surtout séquentiel• Cerveau toujours actif
• .Machine
• Fabrication selon plans• Ressource illimitée( (produit industriel)• Programmation totale (hard+soft)• Accumulation des savoirs des concepteurs • Configuration et mémoires stables. Peut être standardisé• Capable de fonctionnement répétitif, insensible au temps passé• Arrêt sans état d’âme sur panne• Localement déterministe,( ?) cf supra utilise des arguments précis,
• N’invente rien• Transfert et traitement très rapides des données• Capteurs selon construction et technologie• Parallélisme possible• Position « off »
Human and machine are irreducible one to theother.
Organizing and optimizing their cooperation isthe aim of present common research anddevelopment.
The way of exchanging their capabilities will notbe questioned here.
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by
2050?
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll
Human and automationHuman and automation« (hu)man in the loop » : the loop« (hu)man in the loop » : the loop
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 11
request or contractr
decisionobjectives
validity
mechanisms
executionmeans
command
processes
short term plan. presentation
interfaces
measurement
long term plan.
context
judgment
evaluation
interpretationUniversal loop ofcontrolled action
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HumanHuman and automation and automationman in the loop: interfaces depend on selectedman in the loop: interfaces depend on selectedmode. mode.
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 12
request or contract
decisionobjectives
validity
flight controls + servomechanisms
executionmeans
command
processes
short term plan. presentation
interfaces
measurement
long term plan.
context
judgment
evaluation
interpretation
Embedded sensorsand displays
HMI
1/2
1/2/3
5
4
3
4/5
HMI/IHM should be adapted to the mode (1 to 5) in usage
automatisms
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Safety and automationSafety and automation role of automation: role of automation: 1/Avoidance or correction of1/Avoidance or correction ofdysfunctions (disqualities)dysfunctions (disqualities)
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 13
request or contractr
decisionobjectifs
validity
mechanisms
executionmeans
command
processes
presentation
interfaces
measurement
context
judgment
evaluation
interpretationAutomation:
Monitoring/AvoidanceDetection/Alarms
Corrections
Starts at preparation of the flight concerning ATM, CCO, selection, transferand loading of data, covers all steps of the loop. See Rule #5.
long term plan.
short term plan.
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Safety and automationSafety and automation role of automation: role of automation: 2/ in flight prevention and correction 2/ in flight prevention and correction(failures, perils)(failures, perils)
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
14
• Prioritarymission
Keep everythingin order:Passengers,Crew,Cabin,Cargo,Fuel,Engines,Equipment,Airframe, etc
Oradapt the missionand the mode
Automatic monitoringand self repair
monitoring
rescue(sauvetage)
safeguard(sauvegarde)
protection(garde-fou)
emergencyautomatic return + final ground
control
Safety auto.functions
Intrusiveautomatisms
AutoGAStall recov.
collision avoid.traffic, terrain
forbid. zonesairspace, MTO
limitationsload f., AoA, disabled on
board staff
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Four typical automatismsFour typical automatisms
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 15
opérations(nominal flight)
support
active CONTROLLERS(AUTOMATON/ROBOT)
INTRUSIVE(non nominal)
passive AUGMENTERS(control laws,servomechanisms)
INFORMERS(request, draw,elaborate, present)
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Safety and automationSafety and automation to manage the multiplication of automatisms to manage the multiplication of automatisms in view of saving and increasing safety in view of saving and increasing safety
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 16
• Observe the design rules# 1 Identification with the actual type and function# 2 Hierarchical design and consistent organization# 4 Transfer limited to mode n-1#4 bis: effect of intrusive automatisms limited to reverse to the mode 3
• Optimize HMI- Consistent with the selected mode of conduct- Explicit and minimalist (synthetic) displays and signals
• Selection of new automatisms (under design rules)- Categorize the dysfunctions of the loop to be corrected- Evaluate the whole system “before” and “after” implementation
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Automation and systemAutomation and systeminformation and data reliabilityinformation and data reliability
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 17
• The privilege of automation (robot) is to update almost continuouslythe external data.
• Faulty or absent data will cause automatisms to stop working.Hence:
- actual redundancy (different technologies) for flight controlparameters
- production of “spare likely values” through a mathematicalmodel used in the reverse way.
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Automation and systemAutomation and systemmodel based automation: the generic airplanemodel based automation: the generic airplane
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 18
ATM/ATC, CCO, MTO terrain,notam, airports,
Technical specificparameters
(before start)
universalgeneric
algorithms
roboton board
from ground
Generic algorithms control specific aircraft through the adapted model(piloting a generic airplane)
adapted math model :appropriate parametersand “spare” values
act
what
how
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Automation and systemAutomation and systemmodel based automation: more math ?model based automation: more math ?
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
19
• need for a generalized state vector including non-physicalparameters, including risk, (to be quantified)• generic (universal) algorithms of the substitute robot optimize the
generalized trajectory• such an optimization under variable constraints with N parameters is
not simple task and requires high math• individual optimization does not lead to global optimum• who is in charge of globalism?
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Automation and systemAutomation and systemwho is conducting? (the “pilot”)who is conducting? (the “pilot”)
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 20
• Answer: a crew• Partly on board: - human
- machine• Partly on ground: - ATM/ATC
- CCO (airline ops, support)
CRM (crew resources management) includes:HMI/IHM and CDM (cooperative decision making)
ATC is actually conducting the flight in congested areas, in fact a number of flights at the same time (a swarm).
Individual intrusive automatisms should not induce chaos in theswarm!
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Automation and system Automation and system Mode level 3 (path control) as bottom lineMode level 3 (path control) as bottom line
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 21
• high precision flight excluding “manual” control• ATC conducting the flight in critic periods• controlling the flight path in extreme situation
the level 3 mode is considered as the best bottom line.
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Automation and systemAutomation and systemMode level 3 (path control) as bottom lineMode level 3 (path control) as bottom line
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 22
Recommendation :
Imagine, develop, implement, a comprehensiveflight path (local trajectory) control for human in charge:- synthetic presentation of aircraft status concerning the flight path
- synthetic mean for ordering the desired (local) trajectory
This leads to traditional controls disappearing entirely,and new cockpit design as a control room
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ConclusionConclusionCybernertic transition: Cybernertic transition: dealing firstdealing firstwith “Human in the loop” problems until elimination.with “Human in the loop” problems until elimination.
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 23
human on board:only judgmentloop
decideWhat to do now
Act
Act
mechanisms Robot’s loop
hidden part of thehuman’s loop, doesnot stop running
Modes 2, 3 and 4: mixed loop,« man in the loop » Mode 5:
human « above » the loop
IHM (allocation)complex & variable
N? years
Specific « human »dysfunctions
Possible groundcooperation
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ConclusionConclusionCybernertic transition: Cybernertic transition: a long waya long waytowards successtowards success
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 24
The vision:• a large precompetitive specific program including certifiable
demonstrators.• a long period of in-service, “dual control” monitoring of the robots
(future users involved in the development)• transition achieved when “trainees” (robots) certified• staff selection and training radically changed• much more automation of ground systems• a virtual airspace designed for robots
The fully automatic passenger transport aircraft will be an autonomousdrone whose ultimate controller is on board.
Quasi-total automation gives back their true role to humans.
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 25
Merci de votre attention.
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01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll
Preliminary statementPreliminary statement
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 27
• D’un point de vue philosophique/ épistémologique, les travaux en courssur la relation homme/machine relèvent d’une régression vers unconcept de milieu du XXème siècle. Il s’agit de se retrouver dans lasituation d’un pilote confirmé, en pleine forme, conduisant un appareilextrêmement sur qu’il maîtrise parfaitement, dans un contexte« VMC/CAVOK » en toute circonstance (règle « see and avoid »).• Nous pensons qu’il faut au contraire adopter une vision du milieu du
XXIème siècle, dans un contexte d’espace complètement informatisécomme on le voit se développer avec « Big Data », les « Cloud », laconnexion nomade permanente des personnes et des objets.• L’avion sera un robot de transport de personnes évoluant dans un espace
défini virtuellement par les données numériques qui lui permettent decalculer les ordres donnés aux mécaniques.• Le niveau de précision exigé exclut les modes de conduite « manuelle ».
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ground taxiing excludedground taxiing excluded• Le roulage au sol pose un problème d’automatisation particulier. La
disposition et l’équipement varient d’un aéroport à l’autre, il n’est paspossible d’installer un équipement standard à bord capable de tousles cas. Par conséquent on imagine que le taxi sera effectué par untracteur (ou un traceur si les roues sont motorisées) équipé desmoyens locaux de routage automatique, seul l’accouplement serastandard.
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 29
Generic airplane and pilotl’application au pilotage depuis le sol de “model based automation” fait que letype/modèle/version de l’avion est transparent pour le pilote ou le robot qui décidentseulement de la manœuvre ou de la trajectoire, les réglages de commandes qui dépendent ducas particulier de l’avion sont faits par le calcul. donc le pilote au sol n’a plus besoin dequalification de type proprement dite, seulement de prendre en compte des limites (inerties)
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MODE 1 The (historical) pilot is given a mission. Mission ecomposed in manœuvres. Eachmanœuvre realised as pathes. Pathes derived in velocities. Velocities obtained bymanipulation of control effectors. All external information collected by the pilot(s)
MODE 2 Current standard for « manual flight »: pilot’s skills are increased by computers.First effect of digital fly by wire, enables complex manipulation of effectors.
MODE 3 The operator selects the parameters of the desired trajectory, and the automatoncomputes and command the flight controls steering.From then results are requested insteadof means.
« automaton »: open loop in the reference frame « air »MODE 4 Given the end point of the manœuvre, the « delegate » robot compute and
command the trajectories. Request and use external info.« robot » : closed loop to reach the target, observe (some) external information.
MODE 5 « Substitute robot » able to determine at each time the appropriate next manœuvreto realize the overall mission, under constraints (safety, Ops, SOP, ATM/ATC, Meteo,traffic, environment, economy).
Opens the hope of automatizing the entire mission, runway to runway, without humanaction. Impact the on board staffing and occupation (segments as a drone).
Flight automationFlight automationThe 5 modes for conducting the flightThe 5 modes for conducting the flight
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll
Flight automationFlight automationTheoretical approach: design rulesTheoretical approach: design rules
Rule # 1 Strictly and clearly identify any automatic control device with a positionin the system: Substitute robot, Delegate robot, Automaton, Augmenter(prostheses).
Rule # 2 Observe rigorously the hierarchical arrangement: Substitute > Delegate >Automaton.
Rule # 3 Observe rigorously the comprehensiveness of each device, id est. eachsuperior device has access to all the necessary inferior devices to achievecompletely its function under any circumstances, and if not so, consider thedevice as an inferior one.
Rule # 4 In case of failure of the selected « level n » mode, the system must godown to « level n-1 », and NOT to « level n-2 ». Subsidiary: in such a case the« level n-1 » must keep on until human action.
Rule # 5 Any automatism should not start running if the giveninformation/instructions are not complete and coherent. Subsidiary: thepertinence of information/instructions must be achieved under the minimal form.Consequence: automatic checking of coherence and comprehensiveness, throughappropriate modelization.
32Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)
Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll 33Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)
Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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manipula-tions
column, throttle, ..
human selectedmode commande
movements
flight path
manœuvre
mission
mini stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flightConducting the flightmode 1 by direct control (full human operation)mode 1 by direct control (full human operation)
exécution
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
control laws
servomecanisms
Long term objectivenumerical description
The (historical) pilotis given a mission.Decomposed inmanœuvres.Each realised aspathes.Derived invelocities.Obtained bymanipulation ofcontrol devices.
All externalinformationcollected by thepilot(s)
executionby machines
CCOATCMTO
traffic
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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manipula-tions column, throttle, ..
human selectedmode
de
commande
movements
flight path
manœuvre
mission
side stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flightConducting the flightmode 2mode 2 by movements (augmented human)by movements (augmented human)
exécution
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
flight controllaws
servomecanisms
Long term objectivenumerical description
Current standard for« manual flight »:pilot’s skills areincreased bycomputers.
First effect of digital flyby wire, enablescomplex manipulationof effectors.
executionby machines
CCOATCMTO
traffic
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll 36
manipula-tions column, throttle, ..
human selectedmode commande
movements
flight path
manœuvre
mission
mini stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flight Conducting the flight mode 3mode 3 by flight path (human master)by flight path (human master)
exécution
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
control laws
servomecanismes
Long term objectivenumerical description
The operatorselects theparameters ofthe desiredtrajectory, andthe automatecompute andcommand theflight controls.
« automaton »:open loop in thereference frame« air »Continuousmonitoringdemanded
executionby machines
CCOATC
MTO
traffic
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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manipula-tions column, throttle, ..
commande
movements
flight path
manœuvre
mission
mini stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flightConducting the flightmode 4mode 4 by manœuvre (robotized)by manœuvre (robotized)
executionby machines
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
control laws
servomechanisms
Long term objectivenumerical description
Given the endpoint of themanœuvre, the« delegate »robot computeand commandthe trajectories.
Request anduse externalinfo.
« robot » :- closed loop toreach the target- observe (some)externalinformation.
human selectedmode
CCO
MTOATCtraffic
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll
Flight automationFlight automationConducting the flightConducting the flightmode 5mode 5 by missionby mission (full automatic)(full automatic)
38
human selectedmode
manipula-tions column, throttle, ..
commande
movements
flight path
manœuvre
mission
mini stick
parametric settings
Digital assignation ofnext traffic position
Long termtraffic position
executionby machines
substituterobot
delegaterobot
automate
control laws
servomechanisms
Long term objectivenumerical description
« Substitute robot »able to determine ateach time theappropriate nextmanœuvre to realisethe overall mission,under constraints(Ops, SOP, ATM/ATC,meteo, traffic,environment)
MTO
executionby machines
ATCCCOtraffic
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll Commission Aviation civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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Human and automationHuman and automationman in the loop man in the loop
Commission Aviation civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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request or contract
décisionobjectifs
validité
flight controls + servomechanisms
exécutionmoyens
commande
procédés
ordonnancement présentation
interfaces
mesure
planification
contexte
jugement
évaluation
interpretation
automatismeshumain
Embeddedmeasurements and
displays
Control modes 1 and 2« full human »
HMI !
Sensoriel and imaginative« informations »
01/06/2016 - JC Ripoll 41
Human and automationHuman and automationman in the loop man in the loop
request or contract
décisionobjectifs
validité
flight controls + servomechanisms
exécutionmoyens
commande
procédés
ordonnancement présentation
interfaces
mesure
planification
contexte
jugement
évaluation
interpretation
Control mode 3with « automates »
automate
Continuous monitoringrecommended
Continuouspreparation of thefollowing step
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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Human and automationHuman and automationman in the loop man in the loop
request or contract
décisionobjectifs
validitéexécutionmoyens
commande
procédés
ordonnancement présentation
interfaces
mesure
planification
contexte
jugement
évaluation
interpretation
flight controls + servomechanisms
Control mode 4« delegate robot »
« no problem »
« problem » or end of task
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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Human and automationHuman and automationman and the loopman and the loop
request or contract
décisionobjectifs
validitéexécutionmoyens
commande
procédés
ordonnancement présentation
interfaces
mesure
planification
contexte
jugement
évaluation
interpretation
flight controls + servomechanisms
control mode 5« substitute robot »
What to do now?
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?
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Human and automationHuman and automationman in the loop man in the loop
Boyd’s loop applies in emergency (combat or failure)Boyd’s loop applies in emergency (combat or failure)
request or contractr
décisionobjectifs
validité
mécanismes
exécutionmoyens
commande
procédés
ordonnancement présentation
interfaces
mesure
planification
contexte
jugement
évaluation
interpretationD
AO
O
BOYD ‘s loop
Commission Aéronautique Civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?