Autism Spectrum Autism Spectrum Disorders Disorders

in Minnesotain MinnesotaReview of statewide data - Dec. 1, Review of statewide data - Dec. 1,

2005 2005 Phil Sievers – Specialist for ASD Phil Sievers – Specialist for ASD

Who are these students and where are Who are these students and where are they educated?they educated?

What are the trends ?What are the trends ?

What can we predict in Minnesota ?What can we predict in Minnesota ?

Who are these Who are these students ?students ?

Minnesota DefinitionMinnesota Definition3525.1325 Autism Spectrum Disorders 3525.1325 Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD)(ASD) Subpart 1. Definition.Subpart 1. Definition.

“Autism spectrum disorders (ASD)” means a range of pervasive developmental disorders that adversely affect a pupil’s functioning and result in the need for special education instruction and related services. ASD is a disability category characterized by an uneven developmental profile and a pattern of qualitative impairments in several areas of development: social interaction, communication, or restricted repetitive and stereotyped patterns of behavior, interests, and activities, with onset in childhood.

MN Special Education Child Count All Disability Categories

Speech Impaired

Developmental Cognitive Disability(formerly MMMI)

Developmental Cognitive Disability(formerly MSMI)

Severely Multiply Impaired

Physically Impaired

Hearing Impaired

Visually Impaired

Specific Learning Disability

Emotional Behavioral Disorder

Deaf-Blind

Other Health Disability

Autism Spectrum Disorder

Tramatic Brain Injury

Developmental Delay/EC

Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us

ASD is a Low Incidence Disability…ASD is a Low Incidence Disability…

ASD (Birth - 21 yrs.) Minnesota Child Count Data 1996 - 2005

9591284

17302242

2814

3759

4786

5929

7307

8678

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Years

Sta

te T

ota

ls

Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.ushttp://education.state.mn.us

What are the What are the trends ?trends ?

National Facts and National Facts and StatisticsStatistics

Autism Society of America -2006Autism Society of America -2006 1 in 166 births 1 in 166 births (1)(1)

1 to 1.5 million Americans 1 to 1.5 million Americans (2)(2)

Fastest-growing developmental disabilityFastest-growing developmental disability 10 - 17 % annual growth10 - 17 % annual growth Growth comparison during the 1990s Growth comparison during the 1990s (3)(3) : :

U.S. population increase: 13%U.S. population increase: 13% Disabilities increase: 16%Disabilities increase: 16% Autism increase: 172%Autism increase: 172%

$90 billion annual cost $90 billion annual cost (4)(4)

90% of costs are in adult services490% of costs are in adult services4 Cost of lifelong care can be reduced by Cost of lifelong care can be reduced by

2/3 with early diagnosis and intervention 2/3 with early diagnosis and intervention (4)(4)

In 10 years, the annual cost will be $200-In 10 years, the annual cost will be $200-400 billion 400 billion (5)(5)

Autism Count Relative to Other Autism Count Relative to Other Disability CategoriesDisability Categories

Ages 3-5Ages 3-5

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Severe-profound mental handicapSpecific learning disabilityEmotional/Behavioral DisorderOther Health ImpairedPhysical HandicapMild-moderate mental handicapHearing ImpairedAutistic

Perc

en

t of

Sp

eci a

l Ed

. C

hi ld

ren

in

each

C

ate

gory

Minnesota Child Count 1991-2000

Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us

Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us

Age Distribution of Autism Spectrum Disorders MN Child Count Dec. 1, 2005 Total=8,691

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Age Groups Birth - 21 yrs.

Ch

ild

Co

un

t

Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us

Where are they educated ?Where are they educated ?

MN Placement Data for ASD by Federal Instructional Settings

Dec.1, 2005

45%

29%

19%

7%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Regular Classroom

Resource Room

Separate Classroom

Public Separate Day

Private Separate Day

Public Residential

Private Residential

Hospital/Homebound

Questions about the trends Questions about the trends in Autism Spectrum Disorders...in Autism Spectrum Disorders...

Why the increase ?Why the increase ? Several factors contribute…Several factors contribute…

Better training and improved identification Better training and improved identification (NICHHD ‘99) (NICHHD ‘99)

Broader spectrum now considered (CDC ‘99)Broader spectrum now considered (CDC ‘99) Possible, undetermined environmental and Possible, undetermined environmental and

genetic factors genetic factors (Bailey’96,Roidier ’00) (Bailey’96,Roidier ’00)

More questions about the trends…More questions about the trends…

Are we over identifying ?Are we over identifying ? No, there is evidence we are still under identifying in early No, there is evidence we are still under identifying in early

years..years..

Are other states finding the same rates ?Are other states finding the same rates ? Yes and some at much higher ratesYes and some at much higher rates

Will the ASD Child Count continue to Will the ASD Child Count continue to increase?increase? Analysis of MDE Child Count and NIH data predicts continued Analysis of MDE Child Count and NIH data predicts continued

increase. increase.

What forecasts or estimates can be made ?What forecasts or estimates can be made ? 1/500 to 1/200 births (NICHHD and CDC 1999)1/500 to 1/200 births (NICHHD and CDC 1999)

Estimate for Young Children in MinnesotaUnder 6 yrs. with Autism Spectrum Disorders

(Given population base of 397,581 - US Census 2000)

366 398

795

1988

Based on National Institute of Health suggested prevelance rates

for ASD (Jacobson, J., Science in Autism Treatment, vol.2, #1, 2000)

Num

ber

of

Yo

ung

Chi

ldre

nActual ASD Child Count Dec.1, 2000 (0-5yrs)

1/1000 - "classic autism"

1/500 - ASD includingPDD

1/200 - ASD includingPDD and Asperger's

Comparison with other states - Percent of Increase over past 10 years

0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000%

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

New Jersy

Iowa

Connecticut

Maine

Michigan

Source: Twenty-Fourth Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education ActSource: Twenty-Fourth Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act

What can we predict in What can we predict in Minnesota ?Minnesota ?

YeaYearr

Based on Based on Annual Annual Increase of Increase of 31%31%

Based on Based on Annual Annual Increase of Increase of 25%25%

Based on Based on 2000 2000 Prevalence Prevalence in in

7 yr olds7 yr olds

20020000

18 / 10,00018 / 10,000

N = 2,814N = 2,81418 / 10,00018 / 10,000

N = 2,814N = 2,81418 / 10,00018 / 10,000

N = 2,814N = 2,814

20020055

71 / 10,00071 / 10,000

N = 10,827N = 10,82756 / 10,00056 / 10,000

N = 8,588N = 8,58849 / 10,00049 / 10,000

N = 7,409N = 7,409

20120100

274 / 274 / 10,00010,000

N = 41,660N = 41,660

171 / 171 / 10,00010,000

N = 26,207N = 26,207

49 / 10,00049 / 10,000

N = 7,345N = 7,345Source: Epidemiological study- Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Descriptive Study, Child Count Data Source: Epidemiological study- Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Descriptive Study, Child Count Data

from the Minnesota Dept. of Children, Families & Learning 1981-2001”. Gurney, J., Fritz, M., from the Minnesota Dept. of Children, Families & Learning 1981-2001”. Gurney, J., Fritz, M., U of Minnesota and Sievers, P. MN Autism Project, 2001U of Minnesota and Sievers, P. MN Autism Project, 2001

Estimated Future ASD Prevalence and Child CountsEstimated Future ASD Prevalence and Child Counts

Training materials and Training materials and ResourcesResources

Promising Practices: Effective Early Intervention Promising Practices: Effective Early Intervention

Video available at Metro ECSU 612-638-1530Video available at Metro ECSU 612-638-1530

MN First Signs Screening kit and training video MN First Signs Screening kit and training video Kit/video available at 612-638-1532Kit/video available at 612-638-1532

ICAN –Web-based ASD Training Modules…ICAN –Web-based ASD Training Modules…Evidence-basedEvidence-based www.autismnetwork.org  www.autismnetwork.org  

Supporting Students with ASD: Role of the Supporting Students with ASD: Role of the Paraprofessional Paraprofessional http://ici.umn.edu/products/order.htmlhttp://ici.umn.edu/products/order.html

ADDITIONAL RESOURCESADDITIONAL RESOURCES Minnesota Autism Project/Metro ECSU Minnesota Autism Project/Metro ECSU

http://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/asd.htmlhttp://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/asd.html Educating Children with Autism-National Academy of Educating Children with Autism-National Academy of

Science ReportScience Reporthttp://www.nap.edu/books/0309072697/html/ http://www.nap.edu/books/0309072697/html/

Minnesota State Autism NetworkGoal…Working together to increase the capacity of staff, districts and regions, to provide a full array of educational services for individuals with autism spectrum disorders.

Low Incidence Disability Projects

by Minnesota Planning Regions...

1+2 Bemidji3 Virginia4 Fergus Falls5+7 Staples6+8 Marshall9 Mankato10 Rochester11 Twin Cities

Minnesota State Autism Minnesota State Autism NetworkNetwork

Launched in 1992 as a capacity building projectLaunched in 1992 as a capacity building project Technical Assistance and Training modelTechnical Assistance and Training model 55 Educators from all 11 regions of Minnesota55 Educators from all 11 regions of Minnesota

Regional Team Model Regional Team Model

Minnesota State Autism Minnesota State Autism Network Network

http://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/mnautismproject.html

Autism Resource Specialists

•Birth- 3•ECSE/Preschool•ECSE/Preschool•Elementary level

•MS-High School level