Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar ... · along southern Gulf coast. WATL indicates very useful rain for the rainfall deficient western Queensland region over

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For internal use only

EWD Significant Weather Outlook

Issued: 09:10 Monday 14th December 2015

Senior Meteorologist:

Contact:

Heatwave and elevated fire dangers across southern States late in the week.

Outlook

Some potential for severe thunderstorms along populated parts of the NSW coastaldistricts (mainly in the north) on Tuesday and Wednesday with the region of instabilitygradually moving northwards during the week.

Building heat over the continent is dragged over southern States later in the weak aheadof a pre-frontal trough/cold front combination. There is still some uncertainty around thetiming and intensity of the system, but at this stage it looks to be moving through SW WAon Friday, SA on Saturday then Victoria and southern NSW on Sunday.

Heatwave product below for late in the week.

At this stage, Victoria looks to be the most under threat from elevated fire dangersSaturday and Sunday. Reasonable potential for Severe to Extreme fire dangers to beachieved ahead of the front with some potential for Catastrophic to be locally reacheddepending on front intensity. Elevated storms possible ahead of front also.

Document 285



Issued: 09:30 Thursday 17th December 2015


Contact:

Heatwave and elevated fire dangers across southern states late in the week

Outlook

Heatwave intensifying over the southeast of the continent into the weekend, with elevated firedangers.

Saturday is the key day for fire risk in South Australia, with widespread Severe to Extreme firedangers predicted ahead of an approaching cold front.

Victoria is most at risk on Saturday and Sunday, with Very High to Severe fire dangers forecast.There is reasonable potential for Extreme fire dangers to be achieved ahead of the approachingfront, depending on its intensity. Elevated storms are also possible.

Relief from the heatwave will arrive with the passage of the front and pre-frontal trough, forecastthrough SA during the afternoon and overnight on Saturday, then pushing through Victoria andsouthern NSW on Sunday.

Elsewhere, the severe thunderstorm risk along the east coast, associated with an upper low,eases today.

The focus area for thunderstorms today moves further north towards NE NSW and SE QLD.

The monsoon trough currently remains to the northwest of Australia, just south of Java. Themonsoon is likely to develop across parts of northern Australia into the weekend.

Document 286



Issued: 09:30 Monday 21st December 2015


Contact:

Strengthening Monsoon Trough and a Tropical Cyclone risk

Outlook

Monsoon trough strengthening across Top End to Gulf.

The NT region has indicated that there is some uncertainty as to the development of a tropicallow in the Gulf over the next few days. At this stage most NWP models are not predicting a lowcentre in the Gulf region apart from the EC.

The current tropical cyclone outlook indicates a High chance of a tropical cyclone late onTuesday or during Wednesday which may change depending on latest guidance.

Some guidance indicates that onshore flow and thunderstorm activity could create heavy rainfallalong parts of the northern NSW coast from Tuesday to Thursday.

Elevated fire dangers and low intensity heatwave likely over the SE of the continent ahead of thenext cold front which is likely to be approaching western SA late Thursday then crossing tocentral Victoria by Christmas night and into NSW on Boxing Day.

Document 287



Issued: 09:30 Thursday 24st December 2015


Contact:

Increasing fire weather concern, Sydney-Hobart Yacht race, Monsoon Trough and Tropical Cyclone risk

Outlook Fire Danger

Elevated fire dangers (severe) over the SE of the continent ahead of the next cold frontapproaching western SA late Thursday then crossing to central Victoria by Christmas night andinto NSW on Boxing Day.

There is media interest and fire agency concerns due to the number of lightning strikes lastweekend that did have hotspots – with ignitions in SA and forested Vic (water catchment), and forthe current fires that have not yet been contained – such as 12km west of Lorne (Wye River) andBarnawartha (near Albury). The Otway’s is very serious due to population heading there anddifficulty of suppression.

TOP END/GULF

Severe Weather Warnings are current for the Tiwi, Daly, Arnhem and eastern Carpentariadistricts for thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts of up to 90km/hr and heavy rainfall that maylead to flash flooding.

As the low continues to strengthen whilst over land, significant rainfall totals are possible acrossthe Top End catchments; and we are likely to see some significant stream rises. Some modelforecasts of 500mm+ for next 24 hours.

A North West coastal rivers Flood Watch has been issued.

The low is also expected to cause strong winds over all NT coastal waters and may develop intogale force winds

Over the next 24 – 48 hours, the low is expected to take a turn towards the east and headtowards the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low is forecast to move out over the Gulf of Carpentaria sometime on Christmas Day, andmay develop into a Cyclone over the weekend as it continues southeast across the Gulf ofCarpentaria. NT are deciding on watch status this afternoon.

TS, rainfall and Yacht race outlook for eastern states:

Onshore flow and thunderstorm activity could create heavy rainfall along parts of the far northernNSW coast until Friday

Rain – potentially heavy with TS activity - forecast for Vic/NSW boxing day

Currently the forecast for the Sydney Hobart race is for strengthening north-easterly winds beforeencountering the front with 25 to 35 knot southerly winds as the yachts move south.

Conditions will be choppy, wet and uncomfortable overnight during the first night.

Document 288


Conditions for Bass Strait depend on a low that may develop in the Tasman Sea however lookslike the main low centre will be well south of race area – strong S/SW however associated withthe cold front pushing through Sat/Sun.

ACCR 24 hour rainfall 10pm Friday-10pm Saturday


Latest NT track map



Issued: 09:30 Monday 28th December 2015


Contact:

Tropical low for the northeast, heat elsewhere.

Outlook

Daly River major flood likely to persist for some days.

Severe Weather Warnings current for NT and Queensland as tropical low makes its way eastalong southern Gulf coast. WATL indicates very useful rain for the rainfall deficient westernQueensland region over the next week.

Warming up from the west through the week with Severe fire danger forecast into southernWA (and just west of Perth on Monday) and heatwave reaching Severe in the southwest ofWA.

Parts of the southeast of continent will be affected by heatwave through middle of week. Shouldincrease fire dangers to Very High to severe. Will be of some concern for Otway fire the morningof Thursday until the weak change comes through (afternoon) due to instability and other criticalfactors not reflected in surface based FDR

Document 289



Issued: 09:30 Thursday 31st December 2015


Contact:

Tropical low for the northeast, heat/fire elsewhere and a Tasman Sea Low.

Outlook

Major flood Daly River continues with second peak due over the weekend.

Tropical low currently over the southeast NT is likely to be slow moving with a gradual trend tothe east over the next few days. Severe Weather Warning remains current for southeast NT andflood watches current for Queensland. Timing of movement of the low and the associatedtropical moisture is somewhat uncertain. Current guidance indicates that SE Qld/ NE NSWcould be affected early next week with some potential of at least a weak east coast lowdeveloping towards the middle/end of the week as the system moves into the Tasman Sea.

Damaging winds at Norfolk Island as a deepening low passes the area with heavy rainfall alsopossible. Lord Howe Island also under threat from damaging winds.

The Tasman Low will deliver a relatively long period 2-2.5m east swell to the east coast (mainlyN NSW and S Qld coasts) over the weekend – risk for rock fishers and inexperiencedswimmers.

Low intensity heatwave over southeast of continent easing with progression of a trough over thenext couple of days. However Severe fire danger ratings still expected today reaching extremein southeast SA with Severe to Extreme fire dangers continuing though WA and likely SA onFriday.

Otway fire will be an issue today with instability providing good potential for plume developmentahead of south to southwesterly change between 2-4pm. Any current containment lines areconsidered weak.

Extreme heatwave developing over large part of northern WA this weekend with temperaturesas hot as 48C forecast in grids early next week (see large area of 45C+ in MetEye onWednesday below).

8 day rainfall from WATL 4 day FDR Thu-Sun Wed 6/01 Max temp

Document 290



Issued: 09:30 Thursday 7th January 2016

Flooding in NSW central north coast/Hunter region, Fires south of Perth requiring emergency warning

Outlook

Major flood warning has been issued in NSW central north coast/hunter region for Wollombi Brook atBulga, and minor for the lower Hunter and Hawkesbury regions, following the heavy rain from thedeep low that formed off the coast near Port Stephens yesterday. The low is now moving away to theeast with no further significant rain expected. Raymond Terrace and the Newcastle area wasimpacted the most with 2000 SES call outs and evacuations in some parts.

Fires 100km south of Perth (Waroona to Preston Beach), likely to have been started by lightningyesterday, have required emergency fire warning.

Major Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for Flinders, Norman, Moderate Flood Warnings forBulloo, Barcoo, Cooper, Georgina, Eyre and Paroo rivers

In the Northern Territory, the Daly River remains in moderate flood and is continuing to fall

Lake Eyre in South Australia is beginning to see some significant inflows

Low intensity heatwave conditions for south WA and parts of QLD/NT, extending to NSW/Vic by theweekend. Severe Fire Weather Warning for interior WA today.

Victorian Otway’s Fire and others in dense forest in eastern Victoria are still going

TC Ula, Cat 1 TC southwest of Fiji within Fiji warning zone, has the potential to intensify again andhave significant impact on southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia from Sunday onwards.

EWD Contact


Phone:

Document 291



Issued: 09:30 Monday 11th January 2016

Fires south of Perth still active, heatwave in the east, before precipitation later in week in SE and NW

Outlook

Fires 100km south of Perth (Waroona to Preston Beach): wind and temperatures eased yesterday,assisting in containing fire, however fire likely to remain active. Watch and act warning fire warningcurrent.

Flood warnings mostly finalised in NSW,

Major Flood Warnings are current in Queensland for Flinders, Paroo, Moderate Flood Warnings forBulloo, Georgina, Eyre and rivers

Severe Fire Weather Warning for east interior WA to SA, Vic on Wednesday with hot windyconditions ahead of a strong cool change

Mod/severe heatwave conditions in the east ahead of change

Moderate rainfalls with the change on Weds-Friday

Victorian Otway’s Fire still going

TC Ula, Cat 4 TC south of Vanuatu starting to weaken and curve to the south east away from NewCaledonia

Document 292


EWD Contact


Phone:


Issued: 09:30 Monday 18th January 2016

Developing low pressure system and associated severe weather in WA

Outlook Severe Weather

Developing surface low over southwestern WA in response to well aligned upper system. Very slowlymoving east, reaching eastern states with associated cold front late in the week.

Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain for interior and southerncoastal WA districts today and tomorrow. Severe thunderstorm potential moves east to SA byWeds/Thurs and Vic/NSW Thurs/Friday and SE Qld by Sunday.

OCF Guidance indicates potential for good rainfall totals, however reasonable chance that highertotals will be more associated with thunderstorm activity and thus potentially not as widespread asguidance indicates.

Tropical moisture in northern States providing continued thunderstorm activity.

Fire weather

Hot temperatures in the south and southeast leading to increased fire danger with weak low pressuretroughs developing over SA and Victoria Monday and Tuesday, creating difficult to manageconditions through various wind changes.

Heatwave

Severe heatwave developing in east and parts of tropics ahead of frontal passage late in the weak.

Document 293


EWD Contact


Phone: 4613

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East

West & SouthGippsland

EastGippsland

SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300

Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.

Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .

LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.

Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).

Symbol interpretation

This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.

Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.

Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts

PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).

The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.

O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast

Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland

SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)

LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)

EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)

Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Saturday 12 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure system is expected to moves across Victoria today prior to becoming centred over the Tasman Sea on Sunday. A weak inland low pressure trough edges into northern Victoria on Monday through Wednesday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. The high pressure ridge then becomes the dominant feature over Victoria for the remainder of the week.

Weather drivers of �re dangerMild southerly air�ow on Saturday; warm inland. Warmer, drier conditions on Sunday with light to moderate north to northwesterly winds inland and afternoon coastal seabreezes. On Monday, warm and dry conditions away from the coastal fringe with southerly winds freshening late after-noon, although expect northwest winds over the far north and northeast. Warm conditions continue throughout the week and becoming hot inland as temperature approach 40°C later in the week. Air�ow during this period is predominately from the south with light winds and freshen-ing afternoon coastal seabreezes pushing inland late afternoon.

Precipitation and lightning. Isolated showers clearing the south this morning. Dry conditions for Sunday. Chance of isolated showers near the western border on Monday. Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers on Tuesday, clearing to the east by midday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing on the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon. Apart from clearing isolated showers in Gippsland on Wednes-day the rest of the week is likely to remain dry.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday12 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday13 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday14 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

L-M

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

Document 294

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Sunday 12 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure system currently moving across Victoria is predicted to become centred over the Tasman Sea on Sunday. A weak inland low pressure trough edges into northern Victoria on Monday through Thursday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. Modelling indicates that the ridge tends to weaken on Friday as an inland trough deepens over Western Australia. The trough could reach western Victoria late Saturday or be delayed until Sunday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm and dry on Sunday with light to moderate north to northwesterly winds inland and after-noon coastal seabreezes. On Monday, warm and dry conditions away from the coastal fringe with southerly air�ow freshening late afternoon; although expect northwest winds over the far north and northeast. Warm conditions continue throughout the week and becoming hot inland as temperatures approach 40°C later in the week. Air�ow during this period predominately from the south to southeast with light winds and freshening afternoon coastal seabreezes pushing inland each afternoon. Potential spike in �re danger next weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a wind change [signi�cant variation in model timing of wind change at this stage].

Precipitation and lightning. Dry conditions forecast for Sunday. Chance of isolated showers near the western border late Monday. Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers on Tuesday, clearing to the east by midday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing on the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon. Apart from local morning drizzle in Gippsland on Wednesday the rest of the week is likely to remain dry. Showers and thunderstorms developing with the trough over the weekend [timing uncertain].

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday13 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday14 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

H

VH

VH

H

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

H

VH

Document 295

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Sunday 13 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure system centred over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge westwards across southern Victoria today. A weak inland low pressure trough then sets-up over Victoria from Monday through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, models indicate that a trough over WA will be captured by an amplifying frontal system over the Southern Ocean and cross SA . The trough then crosses Victoria on Sunday, although model timing remains variable.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm and dry on Sunday with light to moderate north to northwesterly winds inland and after-noon coastal seabreezes. On Monday, warm and dry conditions away from the coastal fringe with southerly air�ow freshening late afternoon; although expect northwest winds over the far north and northeast. Warm conditions continue throughout the week and becoming hot inland as temperatures approach 40°C later in the week. Air�ow during this period predominately from the south to southeast with light winds and freshening afternoon coastal seabreezes pushing inland each afternoon. Potential spike in �re danger next weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a southerly wind change on Sunday [signi�cant variation in the guidance continues].

Precipitation and lightning. Dry conditions forecast for Sunday. Chance of isolated showers near the western border Monday night. Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers on Tuesday, clearing to the east during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms developing on the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon. Apart from local morning drizzle in Gippsland on Wednesday the rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives on Sunday resulting in showers and possible thunderstorms.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday13 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday14 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

H

VH

VH

H

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

H

VH

Document 296

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating


Summary of global weather model guidanceA weak inland low pressure trough is expected to become quasi-stationary over Victoria from Monday through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change then crosses Victoria on Sunday, although model timing and strength of the wind change remains variable.

Weather drivers of �re dangerMonday is forecast to be warm and dry away from the coastal fringe with north to northwest winds inland; however expect southerly air�ow over southern districts to extend further inland and freshen during the afternoon. Warm conditions continue throughout the week; becoming hot inland as temperatures approach 40°C later in the week. South to southeast air�ow on Wednesday tending northeasterly inland on Thursday. Could see a low level north to northeasterly jet locally a�ect elevated locations and central parts of the State Friday morning. Potential spike in �re danger next weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a southerly wind change on Sunday. C-Haines remains elevated during the forecast period due to the warm, dry airmass.

Precipitation and lightning Chance of isolated showers near the western border Monday evening. Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers on Tuesday, clearing to the east during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms developing on the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon. Apart from local morning drizzle in Gipps-land on Wednesday the rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives on Sunday resulting in showers [thunderstorms are considered to be a slight risk at this stage].

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday14 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

H

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

S

S

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

H

VH

Document 297

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Monday 14 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA weak inland low pressure trough is expected to become near-stationary over Victoria from Monday through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change then crosses Victoria on Sunday, although model timing and strength of the wind change remains variable.

Weather drivers of �re dangerMonday is forecast to be warm and dry away from the coastal fringe with southwest to northwest winds inland; however expect southerly air�ow over southern districts to extend further inland and freshen during the afternoon. Warm conditions continue throughout the week; becoming hot inland as temperatures approach 40°C later in the week. South to southeast air�ow on Wednesday tending northeasterly inland on Thursday. Could see a low level north to northeasterly jet locally a�ect elevated locations and central parts of the State Friday morning. Spike in �re danger next weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a southerly wind change on Sunday. C-Haines remains elevated during the forecast period due to the warm, dry airmass.

Precipitation and lightning Chance of isolated showers near the western border Monday evening. Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, clearing to the east during the afternoon, though thunderstorms still possible on the eastern ranges until evening. Apart from local morning drizzle in Gippsland on Wednesday the rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives on Sunday resulting in showers [thunderstorms are considered to be a slight risk at this stage].

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday14 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

H

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

S

S

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

H

VH

Document 298

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Monday 14 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA weak inland low pressure trough is expected to be near-stationary over Victoria from Monday through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change then crosses Victoria on Sunday, although model timing and strength of the wind change remains variable. A high is expected to move into the Bight on Monday producing cooler southerly winds.

Weather drivers of �re danger Warm conditions continue throughout the week; becoming hot inland as temperatures approach 40°C later in the week. South to southeast air�ow on Tuesday and Wednesday tending northeast-erly inland on Thursday. A low level north to northeasterly jet a�ect elevated locations and central parts of the State Thursday and Friday mornings. Spike in �re danger next weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a southerly wind change on Sunday. C-Haines remains elevated during the forecast period due to the warm, dry airmass. Cooler southerly winds throughout on Monday.

Precipitation and lightning Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers and dry thunderstorms on Tuesday, clearing to the east during the afternoon, though thunderstorms still possible on the eastern and central ranges until evening. Apart from local morning drizzle in Gippsland on Wednesday the rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives on Sunday resulting in showers [thunderstorms are considered to be a slight risk at this stage].

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

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Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

S

S

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

L-M

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

Document 299

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 10am Tuesday 15 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA weak inland low pressure trough is expected to be near-stationary over Victoria through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change then crosses Victoria on Sunday, although model timing and strength of the wind change remains variable. A high is expected to move into the Bight on Monday producing cooler southerly winds.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm conditions continue throughout the week; becoming hot inland as temperatures approach 40°C later in the week. South to southeast air�ow on Tuesday and Wednesday tending northeast-erly inland on Thursday. A low level north to northeasterly jet a�ects elevated locations and central parts of the State Thursday and Friday mornings. Severe FDRs over the weekend, particularly on Saturday, as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a southerly wind change on Sunday. C-Haines remains elevated during the forecast period due to the warm, dry airmass. Cooler south-erly winds throughout on Monday.

Precipitation and lightning Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, possibly dry, clearing to the east during the afternoon, though thunderstorms still possible on the eastern and central ranges until evening. Apart from local morning drizzle in Gippsland on Wednesday the rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives on Sunday resulting in showers and thunder-storms.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday15 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

S

S

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

L-M

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

Document 300

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Tuesday 15 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA weak inland low pressure trough is expected to be near-stationary over Victoria through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change then crosses Victoria on Sunday, although model timing and strength of the wind change remains variable. A high is expected to move into the Bight on Monday producing cooler southerly winds, tending easterly on Tuesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm conditions continue throughout the week; becoming hot inland as temperatures exceed 40°C later in the week. South to southeast air�ow on Tuesday and Wednesday tending northeast-erly inland on Thursday. A low level north to northeasterly jet a�ects elevated locations and central parts of the State Thursday and Friday mornings. Severe FDRs over the weekend, particularly on Saturday, as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a westerly wind change on Sunday. C-Haines remains elevated during the forecast period due to the warm, dry airmass. Cooler south-erly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending easterly and warmer inland on Tuesday.

Precipitation and lightning Mid-level cloud band with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the east tonight, clearing the remainder of the state on Wednesday. The rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives on Sunday resulting in showers and thunderstorms throughout the State, developing from the west during the late morning. Showers should clear the east of the State during Monday.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

H

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

Document 301

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Wednesday 16 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA weak inland low pressure trough is expected to be ‘quasi-stationary’ over Victoria through until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change could reach western districts Saturday night then cross the bulk of the State on Sunday [timing of change di�cult]. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday prior to building over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm conditions continue throughout the week; becoming hot inland as temperatures exceed 40°C later in the week. South to southeast air�ow on Wednesday tending northeasterly inland on Thursday. A low level north to northeasterly jet a�ects elevated locations and central parts of the State Thursday and Friday mornings. Severe FDRs over the weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a westerly wind change. C-Haines remains elevated during the forecast period due to the warm, dry airmass. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending easterly and warmer inland on Tuesday.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated showers and thunderstorms now considered a chance on the eastern ranges Friday afternoon. The rest of the week is likely to remain dry until the trough arrives in the far west Satur-day night resulting in showers. Showers and thunderstorms developing with the trough as it cross the rest of the State on Sunday. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday16 Dec

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

H

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

Document 302

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Wednesday 16 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceAn inland low pressure trough is expected to remain ‘quasi-stationary’ over Victoria until Friday, cradled by a high pressure ridge to the south. On Saturday, model guidance indicates that a trough over WA will be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough and associated wind change could reach western districts Saturday night, crossing western districts Sunday morning and eastern parts during the afternoon. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday prior to building over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHot conditions inland as temperatures reach 36-42°C on Thursday. Hot conditions extending more broadly across the State on Friday and Saturday. A low level north to northeasterly jet a�ecting elevated locations and central parts of the State Thursday morning, otherwise light winds inland and afternoon coastal seabreezes. Similar wind structure again on Friday, although winds inland tend moderate northwesterly. Severe FDRs over the weekend as hot, dry northerly winds develop ahead of a westerly wind change. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending easterly on Tuesday heralding the start of the next warming trend.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated showers and thunderstorms a chance on the eastern ranges Friday afternoon. Showers possible with the arrival of the trough in the far west Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms over western districts Sunday morning contracting eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon and more broadly over central and eastern parts Wednesday.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

VH

S

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

S

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

Document 303

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Thursday 17 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA low pressure trough will extend from the continental interior toward western Victoria on Thurs-day and Friday. On Saturday a trough over WA is likely to be captured by a frontal system amplify-ing over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . All the global models assessed indicate that the trough will reach western districts Sunday morning (timing still varies from before to after sunrise). The trough and associated wind change then moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHot conditions inland as temperatures reach 36-42°C on Thursday with light winds inland and afternoon coastal seabreezes. Hot conditions extending more broadly across the State on Friday and Saturday. A low level north to northerly jet a�ecting elevated locations early Friday then more broadly across the State by late morning. Higher wind speeds forecast for Friday likely to increase FDIs. Severe FDRs over the weekend due to hot, dry northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State on Sunday. Elevated c-Haines through to the weekend, including Saturday night. Concern that northerly winds may be stronger than forecast on Sunday increasing FDR into the Severe range for Central & Gippsland. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending southeasterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland.

Precipitation and lightning Showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday morning then extending eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

VH

S

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

S

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

Document 304

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9.45am Thursday 17 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA low pressure trough will extend from the continental interior toward western Victoria on Thurs-day and Friday. On Saturday a trough over WA is likely to be captured by a frontal system amplify-ing over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . All the global models assessed indicate that the trough will reach western districts Sunday morning (timing still varies from before to after sunrise). The trough and associated wind change then moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHot conditions inland as temperatures reach 36-42°C on Thursday with light winds inland and afternoon coastal seabreezes. Hot conditions extending more broadly across the State on Friday and Saturday. A low level northerly jet a�ecting elevated locations early Friday then more broadly across the State by late morning. Higher wind speeds forecast for Friday likely to increase FDIs. Severe FDRs over the weekend due to hot, dry northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State on Sunday. Elevated c-Haines through to the weekend, staying elevated Satur-day night. Concern that northerly winds may be stronger than forecast on Sunday increasing FDR into the Severe range for Central & Gippsland. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending southeasterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland.

Precipitation and lightning Showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday morning then extending eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday17 Dec

H

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

VH

S

VH

S

S

VH

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

VH

VH

S

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

Document 305

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5.00pm Thursday 17 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA low pressure trough will extend from the continental interior toward western Victoria on Friday. On Saturday a trough over WA is likely to be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . All the global models assessed indicate that the trough will reach western districts Sunday morning (timing still varies from before to after sunrise). The trough and associated wind change then moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHeatwave forecast for Victoria over the next few days. A low-level northerly jet a�ecting elevated locations early Friday extending more broadly across the State by late morning. Winds tending northwesterly inland Friday afternoon with coastal seabreezes pushing inland a little. Similar conditions for Saturday with stronger northwesterly winds, but more cloud cover. Strong and gusty northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State on Sunday. Elevated c-Haines through to the weekend, including Saturday night, which is anticipated to be warm and dry. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending southeasterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland. Very warm northeast winds Thursday.

Precipitation and lightning Band of showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday morning following the trough then contracting eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Isolated showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon. Showers redeveloping over east and northeast Victoria Wednesday afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

S

S

H

VH

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

S

S

VH

S

E

S

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

S

S

S

S

VH

S

VH

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

L-M

H

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

H

VH

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Thursday24 Dec

L-M

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

Document 306

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 10am Friday 18 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA low pressure trough will extend from the continental interior toward western Victoria on Friday. On Saturday a trough over WA is likely to be captured by a frontal system amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . All the global models assessed indicate that the trough will reach western districts Sunday morning (timing still varies from before to after sunrise). The trough and associated wind change then moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHeatwave forecast for Victoria over the next few days. A low-level northerly jet a�ecting the State by late morning. Winds tending northwesterly inland Friday afternoon with coastal seabreezes pushing inland a little. Similar conditions for Saturday with stronger northwesterly winds, but more cloud cover. Strong and gusty northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State on Sunday. Elevated c-Haines through to the weekend, including Saturday night, which is anticipated to be warm and dry. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending southeasterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland. Very warm northeast winds Thursday.

Precipitation and lightning Band of showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday morning following the trough then contracting eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Isolated showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon. Showers redeveloping over east and northeast Victoria Wednesday afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Friday18 Dec

H

VH

S

VH

S

S

VH

S

VH

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

S

S

VH

S

E

S

S

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

VH

S

S

S

S

VH

S

VH

S

L-M

L-M

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H

H

H

H

H

H

Monday21 Dec

L-M

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H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

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Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

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H

H

VH

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H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

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Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

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VH

H

VH

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H

H

H

L-M

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L-M

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Thursday24 Dec

L-M

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VH

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VH

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Document 307

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Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

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EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Friday 18 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high in the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge over Victoria. A trough over WA is will be captured by a frontal system on Saturday, amplifying over the Southern Ocean and move across SA . The trough will reach western districts Sunday morning (timing still varies from before to after sunrise). The trough and associated wind change then moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday, whilst the next frontal system approaches Victoria, at this stage forecast to cross the State late Friday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHeatwave forecast for Victoria over the next couple of days. Winds tending strong northwesterly Saturday, with an increase in cloud cover. Strong and gusty northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State on Sunday. Elevated c-Haines through to the weekend, including Saturday night, which is anticipated to be warm and dry. Milder southerly winds throughout on Monday, with winds tending easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland. Very warm northeast winds Thursday, before a southwesterly change late Friday.

Precipitation and lightning Slight change of showers in the far east on Saturday. Band of showers and thunderstorms develop-ing over western districts Sunday morning following the trough then contracting eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Isolated showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon, and similar conditions for the remainder of the week. A change of Friday will see the possibility of showers and storms across the State during the afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

S

E

S

E

E

S

E

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

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Sunday20 Dec

VH

S

S

S

E

VH

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S

S

L-M

L-M

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Monday21 Dec

L-M

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VH

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Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

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H

VH

VH

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L-M

L-M

H

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H

H

H

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Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

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H

H

VH

VH

H

L-M

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L-M

L-M

L-M

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H

H

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Thursday24 Dec

H

H

VH

H

VH

VH

H

H

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

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Friday25 Dec

H

VH

VH

H

VH

VH

VH

S

S

Sunday

7am3pm

7pm

Document 308

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Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Saturday 19 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high in the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge over Victoria. A trough over WA has been captured by a frontal system, and is amplifying over the Bight as it moves across SA . The trough will reach western districts Sunday morning (timing still varies from before to after sunrise). The trough and associated wind change then moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday, whilst the next frontal system approaches Victoria, at this stage forecast to cross the State late Friday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHeatwave forecast for Victoria over the next couple of days. Winds tending dry and strong north-westerly Saturday, with increased cloud cover. Strong and gusty northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State Sunday. Elevated c-Haines throughout the weekend, including Saturday night, which is anticipated to be warm and dry. Milder southerly winds on Monday, with winds tending easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland. Very warm northerly winds Thursday, before a southwesterly change late Friday.

Precipitation and lightning Chance of showers and storms over the eastern ranges on Saturday, and developing late in the west. Band of showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday morning with the trough then contracting eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east of the State Monday morning. Isolated showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon, and similar conditions for the remainder of the week. A change of Friday will see the possibility of showers and storms across the State during the afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Saturday19 Dec

VH

S

E

S

E

E

S

E

S

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

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H

H

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Sunday20 Dec

VH

S

S

S

E

VH

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S

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L-M

L-M

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Monday21 Dec

L-M

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VH

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Tuesday22 Dec

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VH

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

H

H

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L-M

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L-M

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Friday25 Dec

H

VH

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VH

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S

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Sunday

7am3pm

7pm

Document 309

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Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

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Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Saturday 19 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high in the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge over Victoria. A trough is amplifying over the Bight as it moves across SA, and will reach western districts Sunday morning following sunrise. The trough and associate wind change moves across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday, whilst the next frontal system approaches Victoria, at this stage forecast to cross the State late Friday, after which the .next ridge cradles the State.

Weather drivers of �re dangerHot overnight minimum temperatures overnight, before the �nal day of heatwave conditions for Victoria on Sunday. Strong and gusty northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State Sunday. Elevated c-Haines throughout the weekend, including tonight, which is antici-pated to also be dry. Milder southerly winds on Monday, with winds tending easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland. Very warm northerly winds Thursday, before a southwesterly change late Friday. Cooler conditions with southerly winds throughout on Saturday.

Precipitation and lightning Showers and storms forecast to ease at sunset tonight across the state. Band of showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday morning with the trough then contract-ing eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east on Monday morning. Isolated showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon, and similar condi-tions for the remainder of the week, with the potential for storms in the east. A change of Friday will see the possibility of showers and storms across the State during the afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

S

S

E

S

E

S

S

S

S

L-M

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Monday21 Dec

L-M

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VH

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Tuesday22 Dec

L-M

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VH

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Wednesday23 Dec

L-M

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H

VH

VH

H

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

L-M

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H

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Thursday24 Dec

H

H

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VH

VH

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VH

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L-M

L-M

L-M

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H

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H

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Friday25 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

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VH

Sunday

7am2pm

7pm

L-M

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Saturday26 Dec

L-M

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Document 310

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Mallee

Wimmera

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NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 10am Sunday 20 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high in the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge over Victoria. An ampli�ed trough has reached western Victoria this morning, and the trough and associated wind change will continue to move across the State Sunday. A high is expected to move south of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday and build over the Tasman Sea Wednesday, whilst the next frontal system approaches Victoria, at this stage forecast to cross the State very late Friday, after which the next ridge cradles the State.

Weather drivers of �re dangerStrong and gusty northerly winds ahead of a westerly wind change crossing the State Sunday, particularly about central and eastern districts. Elevated c-Haines Statewide, contracting to the east during the afternoon. Milder southerly winds on Monday, with winds tending easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions warm up again inland. Very warm northerly winds Thursday, before a southwesterly change very late Friday. Cooler conditions with southerly winds throughout on Saturday.

Precipitation and lightning Band of showers and thunderstorms developing over western districts Sunday with the trough then contracting eastwards across the State during the day. Showers should clear the east on Monday morning. Isolated showers possibly returning to the eastern ranges Tuesday afternoon, and similar conditions for the remainder of the week, with the potential for storms in the east on Wednesday. A change of Friday will see the possibility of showers and storms across the State, mainly during the afternoon.

L-M

L-M

L-M

H

H

H

H

H

H

Sunday20 Dec

S

S

E

S

E

S

S

S

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L-M

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Monday21 Dec

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Tuesday22 Dec

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

H

H

VH

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VH

VH

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VH

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L-M

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L-M

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H

H

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Friday25 Dec

H

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

VH

Sunday

10am2pm

7pm

L-M

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L-M

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Saturday26 Dec

L-M

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Document 311

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EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating


Summary of global weather model guidanceThe remnants of a front will �nalise its journey through Victoria Sunday evening, with the next high moving to be positioned south of Victoria on Monday. The ridge will continue to cradle the State through to Thursday, with a weak inland trough in the north. The high will move over into the Tasman Sea on Thursday morning, with the next frontal system currently forecast to cross the state during the early hours of Saturday. Sunday will see the next high pressure ridge across the State.

Weather drivers of �re dangerStrong northerly winds easing in eastern Victoria overnight as southwest winds and cool and moist temperatures are the predominant feature statewide. Conditions will continue Monday, with winds tending southerly on Tuesday. Winds on Thursday will tend moderate northeasterly, and tempera-tures will start to increase, particularly inland. This will continue into Friday, where there is potential for winds to strengthen further, and we may see a brief peak in FDRs on this day. An early change on Saturday will see southwesterly winds and milder conditions for the remainder of the weekend.

Precipitation and lightning The band of showers and thunderstorms across Victoria will tend to the east during the evening, and into early Monday morning. Storms are expected to produce damaging gusts and heavy rainfall. Conditions will clear during the afternoon, and be mainly clear Tuesday, with a possible light afternoon shower. Conditions on Wednesday and Thursday will see instability increase over the east of the state, with the chance of afternoon showers and storms. Friday will see a very late change across the state, with showers ahead of front, and storms with the front, continuing as the front traverses the remainder of the state on Saturday. Showers likely statewide on Sunday also.

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Monday21 Dec

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Tuesday22 Dec

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

H

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Sunday

5pm7pm

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L-M

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Saturday26 Dec

H

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Sunday27 Dec

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Document 312

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EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Monday 21 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure system positioned well south of the continent is predicted to extend a ridge across Bass Strait on Monday. The high pressure ridge is likely to remain south of Victoria on Tuesday and Wednesday, cradling a weak inland trough to the north. The high will consolidate over the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday prior to a trough reaching western Victoria late Friday. The trough is and an associated cold front is then predicted to cross the State early Saturday. Sunday will see the next high pressure ridge stabilise the weather across the State.

Weather drivers of �re dangerCooler southwesterly air�ow across the State today. South to southeasterly air�ow on Tuesday and Wednesday with conditions becoming warmer. Winds on Thursday tending moderate northeast-erly allowing conditions to become very warm. FDI spiking on Friday with Very High to poten-tially Severe FDR due to very warm conditions combined with fresh and gusty northerly winds, particularly once the low level inverison breaks mid-morning. A wind change is predicted near the western border late afternoon/evening then progress across the rest of the State early Saturday introducing cooler southwesterly winds. Mild south to southeasterly air�ow predicted for Sunday.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated showers in the south clearing this afternoon. Predominately dry on Tuesday, just some isolated coastal drizzle in Gippsland and the chance of showers in the far east. Isolated afternoon showers and storms on Thursday about the eastern ranges. Showers and storms near the trough late Friday in the west, continuing overnight into Saturday near the trough as it traverses the remainder of the State [locally heavy falls possible]. Showers becoming isolated on Sunday.

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Monday21 Dec

H

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Tuesday22 Dec

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

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Saturday26 Dec

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Sunday27 Dec

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Document 313

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EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Monday 21 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure ridge is likely to remain south of Victoria on Tuesday and Wednesday, cradling a weak inland trough to the north. The high is predicted to consolidate over the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday prior to a trough reaching western Victoria late Friday. The trough is expected to become more dynamic Friday night as a cold front rapidly approaches from the Southern Ocean. The frontal system is forecast to cross the State early Saturday. Sunday will see the next high pressure ridge stabilise the weather across the State, moving east of Tasmania on Monday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerOn Tuesday expect a warm day with a south to southeasterly air�ow enhanced in the south by seabreezes. Warmer again on Wednesday with winds tending northeasterly inland east of the trough and south to southeasterly in the far west and toward the coast with seabreezes. Very warm on Thursday with northeasterly winds. FDI spiking on Friday with Very High to potentially Severe FDR due to very warm conditions combined with fresh and gusty northerly winds, particularly once the low level inversion breaks mid-morning. A wind change is predicted near the western border late afternoon/evening then progressing across the rest of the State early Saturday intro-ducing cooler southwesterly winds. Mild south to southeasterly air�ow predicted for Sunday.

Precipitation and lightning On Tuesday just some isolated coastal drizzle in Gippsland and the chance of showers in the far east. Isolated afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday about the eastern ranges. Showers and storms developing late Friday in the west, extending eastwards across the State Saturday morning [locally heavy falls possible]. Showers becoming isolated on Sunday, clearing the east on Monday.

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Tuesday22 Dec

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

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Saturday26 Dec

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Sunday27 Dec

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Monday28 Dec

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Document 314

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EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Tuesday 22 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure ridge is likely to remain south of Victoria on Tuesday and Wednesday, cradling a weak inland trough to the north. The high is predicted to consolidate over the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday prior to a trough reaching western Victoria late Friday. The trough is expected to become more dynamic Friday night as a cold front rapidly approaches from the Southern Ocean. The frontal system is forecast to cross the State early Saturday. Sunday will see the next high pressure ridge stabilise the weather across the State, moving east of Tasmania on Monday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm today with a south to southeasterly air�ow enhanced in the south by seabreezes. Warmer again on Wednesday with winds tending northeasterly inland east of the trough and south to southeasterly in the far west and toward the coast with seabreezes. Very warm on Thursday with northeasterly winds. FDI spiking on Friday with Very High to potentially Severe FDR due to very warm conditions combined with fresh and gusty northerly winds, particularly once the low level inversion breaks mid-morning. A wind change is predicted near the western border late afternoon/evening then progressing across the rest of the State early Saturday introducing rain and cooler southwesterly winds. Mild south to southeasterly air�ow predicted for Sunday.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday about the eastern ranges. Showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday in the west, extending eastwards across the State Saturday morning and possibly tending to a band of rain with locally heavy falls. Showers in the south becoming isolated on Sunday, contracting to the Gippsland coast on Monday and claearing later.

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Tuesday22 Dec

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

H

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Saturday26 Dec

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Sunday27 Dec

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Monday28 Dec

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Document 315

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North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Tuesday 22 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure ridge is likely to remain south of Victoria on Wednesday, cradling a weak inland trough to the north. The high is predicted to consolidate over the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday prior to a trough reaching western Victoria late Friday. The trough is expected to become more dynamic Friday night as a cold front rapidly approaches from the Southern Ocean. The frontal system is forecast to cross the State early Saturday. The next high pressure centred over Bight waters is forecast to extend a ridge across Victoria from Sunday to Monday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm on Wednesday with winds tending northeasterly inland east of the trough and south to southeasterly in the far west and toward the coast with seabreezes. Warm to hot on Thursday with northeasterly winds brie�y becoming fresh and gusty once the low level inversion breaks mid-morning. FDI spiking on Friday with Very High to Severe FDR due to hot conditions combined with fresh and gusty northerly winds ahead of a southwest wind change predicted to reach the western border toward evening. The change is forecast to cross the rest of the State early Saturday introducing rain and cooler southwesterly winds. Milder southwesterly air�ow predicted for Sunday. Conditions becoming warmer on Monday and Tuesday with southerly air�ow.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday about the eastern ranges. Showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday in the west, extending eastwards across the State Saturday morning and possibly tending to a band of rain with locally heavy falls. Showers in the south becoming isolated on Sunday, contracting to the Gippsland coast on Monday and clearing later.

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

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Saturday26 Dec

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Sunday27 Dec

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Monday28 Dec

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Tuesday29 Dec

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Document 316

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Wimmera

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Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 9am Wednesday 23 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure ridge will remain south of Victoria on Wednesday, cradling a weak inland trough to the north. The high is predicted to consolidate over the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday prior to a trough reaching western Victoria late Friday. The trough is expected to become more dynamic Friday night as a cold front rapidly approaches from the Southern Ocean. The frontal system is forecast to cross the State early Saturday. The next high pressure centred over Bight waters is forecast to extend a ridge across Victoria from Sunday to Monday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm on Wednesday with winds tending northeasterly inland east of the trough and south to southeasterly in the far west and toward the coast with seabreezes. Warm to hot on Thursday with northeasterly winds brie�y becoming fresh and gusty once the low level inversion breaks mid-morning. FDI spiking on Friday with Very High to Severe FDR due to hot conditions combined with fresh and gusty northerly winds ahead of a southwest wind change predicted to reach the western border toward evening. The change is forecast to cross the rest of the State early Saturday introducing rain and cooler southwesterly winds. Milder southwesterly air�ow predicted for Sunday. Conditions becoming warmer on Monday and Tuesday with southerly air�ow.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday across the eastern half of the State. Showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday in the west, extending eastwards across the State Saturday and possibly tending to a band of rain with locally heavy falls. Showers in the south becoming isolated on Sunday, contracting to the Gippsland coast on Monday and clearing later.

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Wednesday23 Dec

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

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Saturday26 Dec

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Sunday27 Dec

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Monday28 Dec

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Tuesday29 Dec

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Document 317

DISTRICT

Mallee

Wimmera

South West

NorthernCountry

North Central

Central

North East


EastGippsland













Wimmera

Mallee

Northern Country

North Central

North East

South West

Central

W & S Gippsland

East Gippsland




Fire Danger Rating

Prepared 5pm Wednesday 23 December 2015

Summary of global weather model guidanceA high pressure ridge is moving east from south of the State, and is predicted to consolidate over the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday prior to a trough reaching western Victoria late Friday. The trough is expected to become more dynamic Friday night as a cold front rapidly approaches from the Southern Ocean. The frontal system is forecast to cross the State early Saturday. The next high pressure centred over Bight waters is forecast to extend a ridge across Victoria from Sunday to Monday, with an inland trough strengthening during Wednesday.

Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm to hot on Thursday with northeasterly winds brie�y becoming fresh and gusty once the low level inversion breaks mid-morning. FDI spiking on Friday with Very High to Severe FDR due to hot conditions combined with fresh and gusty northerly winds ahead of a southwest wind change predicted to reach the western border toward evening. The change is forecast to cross the rest of the State Saturday introducing rain and cooler southwesterly winds. Milder southwesterly air�ow predicted for Sunday. Conditions becoming warmer early next week with light to moderate southerly air�ow.

Precipitation and lightning Isolated afternoon showers and storms in the east easing during Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday in the west, extending eastwards across the State Saturday and tending to a band of rain with locally heavy falls. Showers in the south becoming isolated on Sunday, contracting to the Gippsland coast on Monday and clearing later. Mainly clear conditions for the remainder of the period, with a possible increase in showers inland during Wednesday.

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Thursday24 Dec

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Friday25 Dec

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Saturday26 Dec

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Sunday27 Dec

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Monday28 Dec

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Tuesday29 Dec

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Wednesday30 Dec

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Document 318

Documents

Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar ... · along southern Gulf coast. WATL indicates very useful rain for the rainfall deficient western Queensland region over