Upload
horatio-payne
View
216
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Australia’s Future WorkforceWorlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013
Ivan NevilleBranch ManagerLabour Market Research and Analysis Branch
Current labour market conditions• Over the year to February 2013, labour market
conditions have been relatively subdued:– Employment increased by 197,400 (1.7 per cent) to
11,628,300;– The unemployment rate edged up from 5.2 per cent to 5.4
per cent;– The participation rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to
stand at 65.3 per cent;– The Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) decreased by 0.7 per cent
in January 2013 and fell more sharply by 23.2 per cent over the year.
Sep-08 Feb-13
Unemployment rate 4.3% 5.4%
Annual employment growth 2.5% 1.7%
Participation rate 65.5% 65.3%
Long Term Unemployed 78,000 122,100*
IVI vacancy count 316,628 168,327*
Regional disparity 6.6% pts 8.2% pts*
Youth unemployment rate 8.8% 11.9%
Pre-GFC and now...
* These figures are for January 2013, the latest available data
Internationally, we are still performing well
11.9 11.7
10.6
8.17.7 7.7
7.0
5.4 5.3
4.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Euro area Italy France OECD US UK Canada Australia Germany Japan
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
Gold Coast Greater Brisbane
Unemployment rate 5.3% 5.7%
Total employment 300,800 1,073,000
Annual employment growth -2.1% -0.2%
Participation rate 64.7% 67.8%
Long Term Unemployed 3200 12,900
Average duration of UE 30.3 weeks 39.8 weeks
Youth unemployment rate 10.5% 12.6%
Gold Coast and Greater Brisbane
Source: 3 month averaged original Labour Force Survey data to January 2013
Year on year employment growth, Gold Coast7.8
2.6
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1
-1.4
-2.0
-2.4
-2.5
-3.6
-5.0
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Retail Trade
Financial and Insurance Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Mining
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Arts and Recreation Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Education and Training
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Public Administration and Safety
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Administrative and Support Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Source: 4 quarter averaged original Labour Force Survey data to November 2012
National employment growth by industry
Actual Projected
Indexed, Nov 2002 = 100
Structural change in the labour market
Source: ABS trend employment data, November 2012
Job growth by skill5 years to November 2012
Source: DEEWR trend employment data, November 2012
Labour Market Outcomes by Educational Attainment for 25 to 34 year olds – Gold Coast
Source: 2011 Census of Population and Housing
Employability skills are importantSome willingness to hire someone without Job Specific Skills:
• Experience (8.8%)• Technical skills (6.2%)• Qualifications/licensing/registration (2.1%)
But reluctance to hire someone without employability skills:• Motivation (2.6%)• Communication skills (0.9%) • Organisational skills (0.5%) • English proficiency (0.5%) • Teamwork skills (0.3%)
Source: DEEWR, Survey of Recruitment Conditions in Capital Cities, March 2012
National age profile by industry
77.8
69.7
68.6
68.5
67.7
67.5
65.9
65.5
64.1
61.3
60.5
59.0
58.5
57.3
57.1
55.4
53.5
51.8
51.7
42.8
22.2
30.3
31.4
31.5
32.3
32.5
34.1
34.5
35.9
38.7
39.5
41.0
41.5
42.7
42.9
44.6
46.5
48.2
48.3
57.2
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Financial and Insurance Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Arts and Recreation Services
Mining
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Other Services
ALL INDUSTRIES
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Manufacturing
Administrative and Support Services
Wholesale Trade
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Public Administration and Safety
Health Care and Social Assistance
Education and Training
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Share of employment (per cent)
15-44 45 and over
Source: 4 quarter averaged original Labour Force Survey data to November 2012
Going forward, some sectors will perform better than others
Source: 2012 DEEWR employment projections to November 2016
-85.6
4.6
5.5
6.7
7.8
17.0
17.7
17.9
18.4
18.5
30.9
31.2
42.0
50.4
61.3
103.7
108.2
131.2
241.8
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Manufacturing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Wholesale Trade
Administrative and Support Services
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Other Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Public Administration and Safety
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Retail Trade
Education and Training
Mining
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Construction
Health Care and Social Assistance
Projected employment growth ('000)
Prevalence of skill shortages• Skill shortages are less
widespread than at any time over the past six years.
• Shortages are more prevalent for trades.
• Wastage (that is, people leaving the occupation for which they trained) is an issue for a number of trades. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Proportion of consistently surveyed occupations in shortage
ProfessionsTechnicians and TradesAll SERA Occupations
(%)
Source: DEEWR Skill Shortage Research
Persistent Shortages
Source: DEEWR Skill Shortage Research
Professionals• Civil Engineering Professionals• Midwives• Physiotherapist • Registered Nurses• Sonographer
Child Care occupations• Child Care Centre Manager • Child Care Worker
Trades Workers• Airconditioning and Refrigeration
Mechanic• Automotive Electrician• Chef/Cook • Hairdresser• Metal Machinist (First Class) • Motor Mechanics• Panelbeater • Pastrycook• Sheetmetal Trades Worker• Vehicle Painter
17 occupations have been in shortage for at least 9 of the past 10 years.
Growth occupationsEven in a subdued labour market, some occupations have shown solid growth over the past five years. These include:
• Registered Nurses• Sales Assistants (General)• Aged and Disabled Carers• Electricians• Contract, Program and Project Administrators• Education Aides• Metal Fitters and Machinists• Child Carers• Truck Drivers
Further information
• For more information:– www.deewr.gov.au/lmip– www.deewr.gov.au/regionalreports– www.deewr.gov.au/australianjobs – www.joboutlook.gov.au– www.skillsinfo.gov.au– www.jobsearch.gov.au