Australian Air Quality Forecasting

System

Peter Manins

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Australia

WMO GURME SAG member

Demonstration ProjectDemonstration Project

Maximum 1-hr ozone levels in Australian cities (Air NEPM = 0.1 ppm)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Ozo

ne

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

m)

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Perth

Brisbane

Canberra

Air NEPM

Source: data from environment agencies

PORT PHILLIP BAY

260 280 300 320 340 360

EASTING (km)

DND

BRI

FTSPSY

PTC

MTC ALP

PTHGLS

GVD

PLP BXH

5740

5760

5780

5800

5820

5840

NO

RT

HIN

G (

km)

LIGHT

MODERATE

HEAVY

AIR QUALITY FORECAST- AIR QUALITY FORECAST- MELBOURNEMELBOURNE

AIR QUALITY FORECAST- AIR QUALITY FORECAST- MELBOURNEMELBOURNE

NORTH EAST

HOUR

IND

EX

NORTH EAST

HOUR

IND

EX

Tomorrow will be fine and sunnyTomorrow will be fine and sunny-with moderate to heavy air pollution-with moderate to heavy air pollution

Melbourne EddyMelbourne Eddy

Bay BreezeBay BreezeSea BreezeSea Breeze

Cold FrontCold Front

Melbourne – high resolution need

The System Components

MET ANALYSIS

EPADATABASE

AQ + METOBS.

WEATHER PREDICTION

EMISSIONMODELLING

TRANSPORTAND

REACTION

AIR QUALITYFORECAST

EVALUATION

BoM-LAPS+CTMBoM-LAPS+CTM

Data Flows for AAQFS

GASP

CTM NSW

LAPS05 VIC

CTM VIC

LAPS375

LAPS125

LAPS05 NSW

SUPERCOMPUTERS

POST-PROCESSING, ARCHIVING, GRAPHICS, VERIFICATION

EPA VIC

EPA NSW

EMAIL

ARCHIVE

WEB SITE

FTP SITE

EPA NSW

• Generate air quality forecasts twice per day for a period of 24–36 hours: (3 pm and 9 am).

• Forecast for a wide range of air pollutants: NOx, ROC, SO2, O3, aerosol, air toxics.

• Resolve air quality down to suburb level (5 km, 1 km, and near-road in some cases).

• Generate a ‘business as usual’ forecast and a ‘greener emissions’ forecast.

AAQFS Design FeaturesAAQFS Design Features

THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM

WEATHERMODEL

EMISSIONSINVENTORY

AIR QUALITYMODEL

AIR QUALITYAIR QUALITYFORECASTFORECAST

Tomorrow will be fine Tomorrow will be fine and sunny!and sunny!

AAQFS Emissions Inventory

WEATHERMODEL

EMISSIONSINVENTORY

AIR QUALITYMODEL

AIR QUALITYAIR QUALITYFORECASTFORECAST

SOURCE CATEGORIESSOURCE CATEGORIESCars, trucks, buses, motor cycles, lawn Cars, trucks, buses, motor cycles, lawn

mowers, mowers, spray painting combustion stoves, cut spray painting combustion stoves, cut

grass, trees, grass, trees, dry cleaners, marine pleasure craft, dry cleaners, marine pleasure craft,

aviation, aviation, commercial shipping, rail transport, commercial shipping, rail transport,

surface coating/thinners,surface coating/thinners,natural gas leakage, natural gas leakage,

domestic/commercial solvents, service domestic/commercial solvents, service stations,stations,

refueling losses, cutback bitumen, refueling losses, cutback bitumen, domestic aerosols, domestic natural gas domestic aerosols, domestic natural gas

combustion, petroleum refining, chemical combustion, petroleum refining, chemical manufacturing, printing, fabricated manufacturing, printing, fabricated metals,basic metal processing, fuel metals,basic metal processing, fuel storage, paint manufacturing, food storage, paint manufacturing, food manufacturing,non-metallic mineral manufacturing,non-metallic mineral

processing, hospitals, incinerator, paper processing, hospitals, incinerator, paper products, quarrying textiles, coal mining, products, quarrying textiles, coal mining,

TAIL-PIPE EMISSIONSTAIL-PIPE EMISSIONS

ROAD-LEVEL EMISSIONSROAD-LEVEL EMISSIONS

2 6 0 2 8 0 3 0 0 3 2 0 3 4 0 3 6 0

E A S T IN G (k m )

5 7 4 0

5 7 6 0

5 7 8 0

5 8 0 0

5 8 2 0

5 8 4 0

NO

RT

HIN

G (

km)

PHN

CBA

SBC

SLC

MAR

FWK

AVL

MOR

LVN

DND

BRI

FTS

PSY

PTC

MTCALP

RPK

WBB

P O R T P H ILLIP B A Y

MELBOURNE

GEELONG

WESTERN PORT BAY

CORIO BAY

MORNINGTONPENINSULA

BELLARINEPENINSULA

B A S S S TR A IT

WERRIBEE

2 6 0 2 8 0 3 0 0 3 2 0 3 4 0 3 6 0

E A S T IN G (k m )

5 7 4 0

5 7 6 0

5 7 8 0

5 8 0 0

5 8 2 0

5 8 4 0

NO

RT

HIN

G (

km)

PHN

CBA

SBC

SLC

MAR

FWK

AVL

MOR

LVN

DND

BRI

FTS

PSY

PTC

MTCALP

RPK

WBB

P O R T P H ILLIP B A Y

MELBOURNE

GEELONG

WESTERN PORT BAY

CORIO BAY

MORNINGTONPENINSULA

BELLARINEPENINSULA

B A S S S TR A IT

WERRIBEE

Fleet emissions -Fleet emissions -MelbourneMelbourne

Fleet emissions -Fleet emissions -MelbourneMelbourne

Emissions Inventory• Motor vehicle emissions (diurnal, weekly var.)• Domestic wood fires (season, degree days)• Industrial stack plume rise (stability, winds)

• Biogenic emissions from soil, vegetation (temperature, PAR, season)• Sea salt aerosol (winds, sea state, temperature)• Wind blown dust (winds, LAI, moisture)• Wild fires and controlled burns (winds, degree days, humidity)

As much as possible, these emissions and their interactions with the forecast meteorology are calculated on-line.

STUDY REGIONS

SYDNEYSYDNEYMELBOURNEMELBOURNE

AUSTRALIAAUSTRALIA

143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0

EASTING

-40.0

-39.0

-38.0

-37.0

-36.0

NO

RT

HIN

G

M ELBO U R N E

W AN G AR ATTA

BEN D IG O

BALLAR AT

W AR R AG U LG EELO N G

W O D O N G A

SH EPPAR TO N

C ASTLEM AIN E

BASS STR AIT

200 250 300 350 400 450 500

EASTIN G (km )

6150

6200

6250

6300

6350

6400

NO

RT

HIN

G (

km)

SYD N EY

M U SW ELLBR O O K

N EW C ASTLE

PIC TO N

W O LLO N G O N G

PEN R ITH

LITH G O W

AAQFS in Victoria

144.2 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.4

EASTIN G

-38 .4

-38 .2

-38 .0

-37 .8

-37 .6

NO

RT

HIN

G

A LP H

B X H L M TC L

P TC K

P A IS

B R TN

R M IT

G S TH G R V D

PORT PHILLIPBAY

BASS STR AIT

MELBOURNE

GEELONG

143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0

EASTING

-40.0

-39.0

-38.0

-37.0

-36.0

NO

RT

HIN

G

M ELBO U R N E

W AN G AR ATTA

BEN D IG O

BALLAR AT

W AR R AG U LG EELO N G

W O D O N G A

SH EPPAR TO N

C ASTLEM AIN E

BASS STR AIT

Urban CTM domain- Melbourne

AUSTRALIA

VICTORIA

Regional CTM domain

Example, The Forecastfor 6 June 01

on the Web: www.epa.vic.gov.au/air/AAQFS

not on the Web

Example, Summer validation(1)

15 March 200115 March 2001

NOy NO2

O3VOC

Example, Summer validation(2)

15 March 200115 March 2001

AQI

PM2.5/10 NO2/NOy

PM10/NOy

50th,90th,95th,99th,99.9th,100th

percentile concentrations, March 2001 for Melbourne/Geelong

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

GEELONG SOUTH

PAISLEY

PT. COOK

NOy

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

GEELONG SOUTH

PAISLEY

PT. COOK

NO2

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

GEELONG SOUTH

PAISLEY

PT. COOK

O3

0

30

60

90

120

150

0 30 60 90 120 150

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

PM10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

GEELONG SOUTH

PAISLEY

PT. COOK

NOy

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

GEELONG SOUTH

PAISLEY

PT. COOK

NO2

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

GEELONG SOUTH

PAISLEY

PT. COOK

O3

0

30

60

90

120

150

0 30 60 90 120 150

OBSERVED (ppb)

MO

DE

LL

ED

(p

pb

)

ALPHINGTON

BOX HILL

BRIGHTON

PM10

Contingency Table Melbourne & Geelong, March, June-July 2001

Probability of Detection, SP = [Yes,Yes]/Total Obs [Yes] = 69/116 = 59%

Fraction of Realised Events, SR = [Yes,Yes]/Total Forecast [Yes] = 69/130

False Alarm Rate, (1-SR) = 61/130 = 47%

AAQFS

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)

FO

RE

CA

ST

CO

NC

EN

TR

AT

ION

(p

pb

).

PERSISTENCE0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)

FO

RE

CA

ST

CO

NC

EN

TR

AT

ION

(p

pb

).

PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOGPerformance- daily 1-hour O3 max

Why is AAQFS special?

• Provides twice-daily forecasts of AQI or Provides twice-daily forecasts of AQI or RPI (and 18 pollutants) for EPAsRPI (and 18 pollutants) for EPAs on time on time

• Shows the daily development of pollution Shows the daily development of pollution (highly instructive; web mounted)(highly instructive; web mounted)

• Because prognostic, unusual events Because prognostic, unusual events handled (if Emissions, Weather desc. OK)handled (if Emissions, Weather desc. OK)

• Can explore results with powerful display Can explore results with powerful display tools and better, slower, modelstools and better, slower, models

• Alternative scenarios, special locations Alternative scenarios, special locations handledhandled