8/9/2019 AUG-09 Mizuho Weekly Technical Commentary EUR JPY
GBP
1/1
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived
from information generally available to the public from sources
believed to be reliable. No representation orwarranty is made or
implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in
this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has
been preparedsolely for information purposes and if so decided, for
private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy
or sell any instrument, or to engage in any tradingstrategy.
Charts provided by Reuters.
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Weekly Technical Commentary 09 August 2010
Links:http://www.mizuho-sc.com/ Bloomberg Page:MIZH
Website:http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/
EUR/JPYChart Levels: Support 112.00..111.00..110.00..108.00.
Resistance 113.50..114.75..115.50..116.55
This week This monthEURJPY=EBS, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote
[Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly 17Oct09 - 13Feb11
Nov09 Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan11 Feb
Pr
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138EURJPY=EBS, Last Quote, Candle
15Aug10 113.51 113.68113.33 113.65
EURJPY=EBS, Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9
15Aug10 111.02
EURJPY=EBS, Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26
15Aug10 117.63
EURJPY=EBS, Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52
06Feb11 114.32
EURJPY=EBS, Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52
06Feb11 122.90
EURJPY=EBS, Last Quote, Chikou Span 26
21Feb10 113.65
Nothing to add as we continue with tiny movessideways, this one
close to the May and Junehighs around 113.50/114.40. While below
thisarea we shall continue to allow for anotherimminent if
unspectacular downside probe. Thisis more likely to occur when and
if dollar/yenprobes below the key 85.00 level. As always the
deeper the downside test the greater the risk ofintervention and
the bigger the correctivebounce that follows, making trading
strategyvery difficult. One-month at-the-money impliedvolatility
should hold above its long term meanat 11.00%. Slightly worrying to
our view thoughis that not only have daily moving averagescrossed
to a buy but prices are actuallymanaging to edge into a very large
cloud.
GBP/JPYChart Levels: Support134.35..133.85..132.00..130.75 .
Resistance137.55..138.00..138.90..139.35.
This week This monthGBPJPY=R, Bid [Candle], Bid [Ichimoku 9, 26,
52, 26] Weekly 07Jun09 - 13Feb11
Jul09 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec Jan11 Feb
Pr
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
75.0
78.6
61.8
GBPJPY=R, Bid, Candle
15Aug10136.43 136.97 136.16 136.52
GBPJPY=R, Bid, Tenkan Sen 9
15Aug10134.36
GBPJPY=R, Bid, Kijun Sen 26
15Aug10136.34
GBPJPY=R, Bid, Senkou Span(a) 52
06Feb11 135.35
GBPJPY=R, Bid, Senkou Span(b) 52
06Feb11 142.12
GBPJPY=R, Bid, Chikou Span 26
21Feb10 136.52
Small weekly ranges dominate and all elementsof this weekly
Ichimoku cloud chart point to ashort position. Perhaps the Lagging
Span willstruggle with the large dark candle of lateFebruary. Note
that momentum has beenbearish throughout the whole of 2010 and
we
remind that the all-time low was 118.80 inJanuary 2009. In 1995
Sterling/yen set a low at128.20, underlining the pounds long term
trendto weakness. Though above its long termmean, one-month
at-the-money impliedvolatility remains relatively subdued.
Meanregression since 1980 lies at 142.00, onestandard deviation
below that at 114.50,something that might be a possibility
althoughcurrently not our favoured view.
Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509
(email: [email protected])
http://www.mizuho-sc.com/english/http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/http://www.mizuho-sc.com/english/
