AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis

8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis

1/17

Final Report

Currency pair AUD/CAD

Subject: Trading and Exchange

Section: “C

Sub!itted by:

"uha!!ad A#i! $%S%&"'A"(()*

Saad Ra+i,ue Ali $%S%&"'A"((-*

Sub!itted to:

. 0A" FER10E

Dated: "ay )&2 )(%3


2/17

4raph o+%& th "A5 )(%3

On 13 may 2016 the candle become DOJI its means the trend is near to end and for a long time seller

has power in hands but at closing time the buyers increases in the market due to this price goes

upward o!erall DOJI shows neutral trend

Funda!ental Analy#i#

May 13 The Australian government raised a record-matching A$7 billion ($5.14 billion in a ne! issue

o" 1#-year debt !ith one third sold to international investors attracted by the bond%s relatively high

yield !hich im&act economy strongly.

Technical analy#i#

'ecord-matching A$7 billion ($5.14 billion in a ne! issue o" 1#-year debt this im&act de"ine as!hen ovt. issue the )ond the money goes to the overnment due to this money circulationdecreases the A*+ !ill be a&&reciated. That !hy the trend is going to end.

Source

http"##www$reuters$com#article#australia%debt%aofm%id&'(3)1*+2,I

Trading and Exchange6 )

http://www.reuters.com/article/australia-debt-aofm-idUSL3N1892CIhttp://www.reuters.com/article/australia-debt-aofm-idUSL3N1892CI


3/17

4raph o+ %3 th "A5 )(%3

On 16 may 2016 candle stick become in!erted hammer its mean there is buying pressure whole

day but at closing time sellers increases in the market but o!erall price is bullish$ -his candle

confirming the bullish signal$


.ay 16 /ustralian shares rose 0$6 percent on .onday helped by solid gains in healthcare stocks$

hich affects the economy positi!ely and the !alue of /ustralian dollar appreciate which appreciate

the !alue of pair

Technical analy#i#

.ay 16 /ustralian shares rose 0$6 percent on .onday helped by solid gains in healthcare stocks

-he ' #/' 200 inde4 ended up 2+$+1 points at 5 35*$+0$

Source

http"##www$reuters$com#article#australia%stocks%close%id&'(3)1*D2

Trading and Exchange6 &

http://www.reuters.com/article/australia-stocks-close-idUSL3N18D2KXhttp://www.reuters.com/article/australia-stocks-close-idUSL3N18D2KX


4/17

4raph o+ %* th "A5 )(%3

On 17 may 2016 the candle stick is bullish its uppers shadow is higher than lower shadow$

Funda!ental analy#i#

On 17 may 2016 the news is declared by the reser!e bank of /ustralia that inflation rate is

declined than pre!ious inflation rate which means economy is becomes stronger which result the

currency of /ustralian dollar is appreciated$ On the same date news by the statistics ,anada

manufacturer8s sales declined it8s a leading indicator of an economic health due to decreasing

sales its affects badly which leads currency depreciation

It means /ustralian dollar are appreciating due to less inflation rate and ,anadian dollar is

depreciated due to decreasing sales$ ,anadian dollars is denominator and /ustralian dollar is

nominator which results price of pair is impro!ed

Trading and Exchange6 -


5/17

Technical analy#i#

Inflation had declined to a little less than 9 per cent compared with about : per cent in the

December ;uarter to be about 1: per cent o!er the year$ .anufacturing sales decreased 0$+< to

=50$0 billion in .arch$

Source

http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+12@+

http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+11+0

Trading and Exchange6 7

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591249http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591190http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591249http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591190


6/17

4raph o+ %8 th "A5 )(%3

On 1* may 2016 the candle stick is bearish its lower shadow is higher than upper shadow

Funda!ental Analy#i#Aoreign in!estments of ,anadian securities are increasing which result the strengthen of

economy which appreciates ,anadian dollars ,anadian dollars appreciates which means pair is

depreciate because ,anadian dollar is denominator$

Technical Analy#i#

Aoreign in!estment in ,anadian securities strengthened for a third straight month to reach

=17$2 billion in .arch

Source:

http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+1@01


http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591401http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591401


7/17

4raph o+ %9 th "A5 )(%3

On 1+ may 2016 the candle stick is bullish and real body of candle is small than last real body of

bullish candle


&nemployment rate decreases which means inflation rate decreases which leads to decrease

money supply which results increase the !alue of money which results appreciate of /ustralian

dollar

holesale sales declined for a second consecuti!e month which impact badly on economy which

results depreciate of ,anadian dollar

Due to decrease in unemployment rate /ustralian dollar appreciated which in nominator and due

to decrease in wholesale sales ,anadian dollar depreciates which is denominator which means

pair is impro!ed

Trading and Exchange6 *


8/17

Technical analy#i#:

Bmployment increased @ 100 to 11 +10 *00$ &nemployment decreased 1 +00 to 726 600$

&nemployment rate decreased by less than 0$1 pts to 5$7do?news id?5+16@3


http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591532http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591643http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591532http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591643


9/17

4raph o+ )( th "A5 )(%3

On 20 may 2016 the candle stick is bullish and the real body of candle is small than last real

body of bullish candle


,onsumer price inde4 increases which means purchasing power decreases$ -hat indicates

increase in inflation which increases money supply which result ,anadian dollar depreciates

Technical analy#i#

-he ,onsumer rice Inde4 rose 1$7< in the 12 months to /pril after increasing 1$3< in .arch$

B4cluding gasoline the , I rose 2$0< year o!er year in /pril following a 1$+< increase in.arch

Source:

http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+1*05


http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591805http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591805


10/17

.ext ee; Foreca#ting Tool#

4raph o+ "ACD

'tandards areC

• ed line means signal line + days• Elack line means ./,D line 26%12?1@ days

-his graph shows ./,D line rises abo!e the signal line which indicates bullish signal

Trading and Exchange6 %(


11/17

4raph o+ R1C

e selected the O, standard define as

• O!erbought Fone G10• O!ersold Fone %10• Hero line 'ignal

hen momentum crosses abo!e Fero it gi!es buy signal when momentum crosses below the

Fero line it gi!es sell signal$

O, not confirming clear signal of buy and sell

Trading and Exchange6 %%


12/17

4raph o+ RS

e selected the 'I eriod is 1@ days standard define as

• If crosses 70< it means o!erbought Fone• If crosses 30< it means o!ersold Fone

-his 'I Kraph shows buy signal because 'I rises out of o!ersold Fone

Trading and Exchange6 %)


13/17

4raph o+


14/17

Calculation o+


15/17

Ey using Aibonacci tool we calculate the retracement le!el$ -he graph show the how much price

will be goes down for different standard of Aibonacci retracement$

Trading and Exchange6 %7


16/17

Foreca#ting Analy#i#:

e obser!e o!erall graph and candles the first day 13 may represent the end of trend as pre!ious

it is bearish when doLi become the trend becomes end and it is bullish at 16 may the price goes

upward after high fluctuation$ -hen on 17 may price consistently goes upward with a high real

body bullish candle$ On 1* may the price goes down temporary doing retracement and on 1+ it

goes upward because trend is bullish the end day of 20 may is also make bullish candle$

-hen we apply oscillators O, 'I ./,D$ O, not gi!ing confirming signal while ./,D

and 'I gi!e bullish signal .ay 23 /ustralian share fell to their lowest in nearly two weeks on

.onday as weaknesses in iron ore prices weighed on the maLor miners while a soggy

performance by the big banks ensured a negati!e start to the week$ It may be retracement o!erall

trend of ne4t week will be highly like bullish$

hy we say the price will be go up in ne4t week because of applying the difference tools and

also define here what will be support '1 and '2 as well as esistance 1 and 2 by using the

i!ot point tool$ /s we use Aibonacci tool we calculate the retracement le!el how much price

will be goes down for different standard of Aibonacci retracement$

Trading and Exchange6 %3


17/17

Conclu#ion

e obser!e 1 week candles in which we analyFe that trend is going upward after become DOJI

on 13 may2016 then we do fundamental analysis and apply different oscillators ./,D O,

'I which forecast that ne4t week trend will be highly like to be bullish$ /lso define the price

limits 'upport and esistance le!el and retracement le!el$

Trading and Exchange6 %*

Documents

AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis