Attracting UK consumers and businesses to electric vehicles

Dr Ben Lane, Next Green Car / Zap-Map Solar Energy UK – 16th October 2014 – NEC, Birmingham

www.zap-map.com UK charging map

ULEV market in UK BEV/PHEVs

Source: Next Green Car, May 2014

BEV/PHEVs ULEV market in UK

Source: Next Green Car, May 2014

BEV/PHEVs ULEV market comparison

Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2014

UK

BEV/PHEVs ULEV market attitudes

Source: Department for Transport, 2014

‘Resistors’

‘Enthusiasts’ & ‘Aspirers’

Attitudes to electric cars and vans (Sample: UK drivers)

Source: Department for Transport, 2014

BEV/PHEVs ULEV market attitudes

Factors discouraging buying an EV (Sample: UK drivers)

BEV/PHEVs

Source: Zap-Map 2014

UK charging network (public)

UK Govt: PiP 2011-2013 £13.0m (€16m); OLEV 2013-2015 £36.5m (€46m)

BEV/PHEVs UK Govt: PiP 2011-2013 £13.0m (€16m); OLEV 2013-2015 £36.5m (€46m)

UK charging network (public)

Source: Zap-Map 2014

Policy drivers • EU fleet-average CO2 target of 130 g/km by 2015 and 95 g/km

by 2021; EVs receive super-credits from 2016

• CCC has identified EVs as a key technology to support UK 80%

CO2 reduction target by 2050 (compared to 1990)

• Local authorities aim to reduce urban PM10 and NOx: ~4,300

premature annual deaths due to air pollution in London

• Govt supporting UK automotive industry (7.3% UK output) -

£500m over 10yrs for LCV and EV development

Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2014

ULEV market in UK

Incentives

• New – Plug-in Car/Van Grants - Up to £5k/£8k for cars/vans

• New – ECAs (business) worth 7%-10% OTR price (over 4 yrs)

• All – zero car/fuel tax, Ultra Low Emission Discount (London)

• All – zero BIK rate until 2015, 5% P11D from 2016…

• All – some free parking/charging – highly variable across UK

• Administered by Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV)

2014: >£200m for the continuation of Plug-in Car Grant; remain at £5,000 per car until 2017, or until at least 50,000 cars sold, whichever sooner

ULEV market in UK

Source: Next Green Car, 2014

UK Govt: £400m (€500m) to April 2015; £500m (€625m) 2015-2020

Investment UK charging network (public)

Source: Next Green Car, 2014

UK Govt: £36.5m (€46m) to April 2015; £32m (€40m) 2015-2020

£36.5m (€46m) for charging infrastructure (to 2015) – 75% costs

• £13.5m (€17m) for home-based units (<7kW, Type 2)

• £8m (€10m) LAs on-street fast chargers (<22kW, Type 2, x2)

• £3m (€4m) LAs on-street rapid (43kW AC / 50kW DC)

• £9m (€1m) for modal interchanges (<22kW, Type 2, x2)

• £3m (€4m) public sector estate (<22kW, Type 2, x2)

2014: Further £32m (€40m) for fast and rapid network development 2015-2020 with focus on rapid charging infrastructure (target 500+)

BEV/PHEVs ULEV market success factors

Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2014

• Norway (x30 UK sales) incentives worth up to £12,200 (BEVs only) + annual tax exemption, free parking, exempt from road tolls.

• Netherlands (x10 UK sales) – up to £6,800 , tax exemption, exempt from income tax for lease vehicles, some free parking.

• UK needs to implement more low-cost/high-value market incentives

UK

• More model choice (particularly vans) – rapid improvement 2011-2014 • More support – PIFI whole-life cost comparisons and route planning • Cost reduction – 10-15% battery cost reduction significant market impact

Walter Bersey, 1896: “There is no apparent limit to the hopes and expectations of the electric artisans…..in short [it] is the natural power which shall be the most intimate and effective of all man’s assets.”

Nissan, 2013: “The NV200 cab for London is part of Nissan’s global taxi

programme, which also encompasses New York, Barcelona and Tokyo”

BEV/PHEVs EVs: Plus ça change?

Sources: Wikipedia 2014; Nissan 2014

“Building cars powered by alternative fuels but that still use oil is unsustainable“ Carlos Ghosn

Attracting UK consumers and businesses to electric vehicles

Dr Ben Lane, Next Green Car / Zap-Map Solar Energy UK – 16th October 2014 – NEC, Birmingham

benlane@nextgreencar.com

www.nextgreencar.com

NAIGT Roadmap 2009

BEV/PHEVs Ultra Low Emission Vehicles – Govt/industry roadmap

Increasing levels of electrification and autonomy

Battery Electric / BEV

Plug-in Hybrid EV / PHEV Range-Extended EV / REEV

EV models available in UK doubling each year (20 in 2013) – Top 10 brands offer EV by 2015

Driverless vehicles

2012-13 models shown using 2-D plot of AQ-GHG ratings coordinates – UK context

GHG/AQ weighting 60:40 approx. – arises purely out of relative value of external costs and emissions of baseline veh.

Life cycle EVs reduced emissions

Next Green Car 2013

BEV/PHEVs UK charging network (public)

UK Govt: PiP 2011-2013 £13.0m (€16m); OLEV 2013-2015 £36.5m (€46m)

Source: Zap-Map 2013