Atmospheric ForecastsAdaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)

Monterey Bay Predictive Skill Experiment

Real-Time AOSN COAMPSNRL MRY ran a 4-nest grid structure w/3 km grid spacing for real-time

support of AOSN

9 km

3 km

27 km

81 km

Twice daily forecasts to 72 h with data assimilation

NOGAPS lateral boundary conditions

Used FNMOC DoD HPC Distributed Computing Facility

Real-time fields put on ftp site: Used to force HOPS and ROMS

ocean models

Atmospheric ForecastsAdaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)

Horizontal Resolution Sensitivity/Wind Stress Validation

COAMPS Forecast

M1 Observations

August 2003

August 2003

Ocean modelers have shown improved representation of the wind stress curl using the 3 km grid at the coast

leads to improved representation of upwelling1

COAMPS 3 km Forecast Surface Stress Compares Favorably to Observed Stress at M1 Buoy

3 km

9 km

Representation of Coastal Jets, Wind Stress Curl, and Coastal Shear Zone

Improved using Higher Resolution Grid

27 km

M1

Wind Speed (m/s)121086420

The leftmost 3 boxes show COAMPS wind

speed (color) and direction (arrows) for 27, 9, and 3 km grids

Graphs on right show observed (upper) and

COAMPS (lower) Surface Stress

Observed Wind Speeds (blue)0-12h COAMPS Wind Speeds (red)

For M1 (top) and M2 (bottom)

M115

10

5

0

Win

d S

pee

d (

m/s

)

7/27/03 8/3/03 8/10/03 8/17/03

M212

8

4

0

Win

d S

pee

d (

m/s

)

7/27/03 8/3/03 8/10/03 8/17/03

Atmospheric ForecastsAdaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)

Evaluation of COAMPS WindsCourtesy of Oleg Logoutov and Pierre Lermusiaux, Harvard University

Results indicate that COAMPS is able to replicate

daily diurnal changes in wind speed as well as larger time scale synoptic events

M1

M2

MRYSanta Cruz