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18 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
• AirQualityinmetropolitanAdelaide:NO DISCERNABLE TREND withnon-compliantlevelsofparticulatesatsomemonitoringsites.
• AirQualityinPortAugusta:NO DISCERNABLE TREND
• AirQualityinPortPirie:NO DISCERNABLE TRENDwithnon-compliantlevelsofsulfurdioxide,leadandparticlesinthereportingperiod.
• AirQualityinWhyalla:NO DISCERNABLE TREND
CleanandHealthyAir–maintainingandimprovingairqualityintheAdelaideairshedandregionalcentresinSouthAustralia.
Environmental Protection Authority Strategic Plan 2007-2010
Note:Ambientairqualitydatamustbelong-termandcomparabletodeterminestatisticallyvalidtrends.Currentmonitoringprogramshavenotbeeninplacelongenoughtodeterminesuchtrendsinallcases.
WhilegoodairqualityisavailabletothemajorityofSouthAustralians,maintaininggoodairqualityforallisvitaltothedevelopmentofasustainablestate.
Trends
Goal
Air Quality and a sustainable South Australia
A i r Qual i ty
Poorairqualitycanarisethroughnaturalprocessessuchasduststormsandanthropogenicprocessessuchasemissionsfrommotorvehicles,industryandwoodheaters.Asitisimpossibletocontrolallofthenaturalprocessesthatcancausepoorairquality,itisimportanttohaveagoodunderstandingofanthropogenicsources.
Whileitisnotalwaysnoticeable,airqualityhas a significant impact on the lives and lifestylesofSouthAustralians.Poorairqualitycanlimitthecapacityforpeopletogooutandenjoytheirsurroundingenvironmentandmoreimportantly,itcanhave a significant impact on the health of susceptibleindividuals.
Elevatedconcentrationsofairpollutants,especiallyparticulatesandozoneareknowntohaveanegativeeffectontherespiratoryandcardiovascularsystems
leadingtoincreasedillnessandwithparticulates,increasedmortality.
AstudyintothehealthcostsofparticulatematterbytheUniversityofAdelaideandDepartmentofHealth(DoH)isunderwayandunavailableforreferenceatthetimeofpublishingbutthecostasextrapolatedfromNewSouthWalesdata,isestimatedtobehundredsofmillionsofdollars(DEC,2005).Thisstrainsthehealthsystemandultimatelyalsoimpactsothergovernmentservices.MaintaininggoodairqualitywillimprovepublichealthaswellascontributetoasustainableSouthAustralia.
19S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
Vehicle number trendsWhat is PM10 (particulate matter) and where does it come from?
Thenumberofvehiclesontheroadsisestimatedtoincreaseasmuchas14.8%bytheyear2014-15,increasingtheircontributiontoairpollution.(Apelbaum,2007)
Thepotentialforincreasesinairpollutants,suchasparticlesandozone,isofgreatestconcerninAdelaideduetothedensityofthepopulation,industryandmotorvehicleusageandismonitoredbytheSouthAustralianEnvironmentProtectionAuthority(EPA)atsixlocationsacrosstheairshed.CollecteddataissuppliedtotheNationalEnvironmentProtectionCouncil(NEPC)onanannualbasisandisalsosuppliedtothecommunitythroughthewebbasedAirQualityIndex(www.epa.sa.gov.au/airindex_sum.html)or in response to specific requests.
Regionally,airpollutantsthatareofconcernincludeleadinPortPirie,whereelevatedbloodleadlevelsremainasignificant problem, dust in Whyalla anddomesticwoodheatersmoke(particulate)intheAdelaideHills.AllaremonitoredbytheEPA.
ClimatechangemodelsindicatethatelevatedparticulateandphotochemicalsmogeventsarelikelytobecomemorefrequentandmoresevereastemperaturesandemissionsfromdiffusesourcesuchasmotorvehiclesincreaseinSouthAustralia.
Particulatematterisacomplexmixtureofairbornesolidandliquidparticleswithadiameterequaltoorsmallerthan10micrometers(approximatelyonesevenththethicknessofahumanhair).Itcancomefromavarietyofsourcesincluding:
• wood smoke from fires (such as combustion wood heaters and bushfires)
• motorvehicleexhaustemissions
• windblowndust
• windblownsea-salt
• industryemissions
• pollens
Particulatematterisanairpollutantofconcernastheycanpenetrateintothelungsandcauserespiratoryorcardiacproblemsorevenmortalityinsensitiveindividuals.Particulatemattercanalsobeofconcernastheycanhaveotherchemicalsorheavymetalsadsorbedtothemwhichcanalsocausehealtheffects. Researchers are yet to find a particle concentration where there are noresultinghealtheffects.
CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard–AirPollutionParticulateMatterBrochurewww.arb.ca.gov/html/brochure/pm10.htm
NewZealandMinistryfortheEnvironment–HealthEffectsofPM10inNewZealandReportwww.mfe.govt.nz/publications/air/air-quality-tech-report-39/air-quality-tech-report-39-aug03.pdf
SmokeWatch in action at Woodside Primary School. Photo: EPA
Dust Storm. Photo: Glenn Gale, DWLBC
Air Qual i ty
20 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
Airpollutantsatelevatedlevelscanimpactonvariousagriculturalactivities.Forexample,thepeakozonelevelscurrentlyexperiencedintheAdelaideairshed,whilewithinNationalEnvironmentProtectionMeasure(NEPM)levelsthatprotecthumanhealth,havebeenprojectedtoreducetheyieldofsensitivecropssuchascantaloupe,grapes,oranges,onionsandbeansby12-31%.Thisreductionisprimarilyduetotheozoneinterferingwiththephotosynthesisprocess.Importantly,theAdelaideairshedimpactstheNorthernAdelaidePlainsandtheWillungaBasin.Theextentoftheimpactonnativevegetationisunknown.Ozoneislessofaprobleminregionalareas.
Theamenityofanareacanbeseverelyimpactedbypoorairqualityoreventheperceptionofpoorairquality,withresultingnegativeeconomicconsequencesforresidentsduetodecreasesinpropertypricesandvalues.Itcanalsoleadtounrestanddistrustbetweenthecommunityandanylocalindustriesandassociatedgovernmentdepartments.Poorairqualitycanbevisuallyunpleasant,whetheritisalargeplumerisingfromastackoralayerof brown haze covering the city first thinginthemorning.ImprovementstoSouthAustralia’sairqualitywillrequireaconcertedeffortbygovernment,industryandthecommunitytoreduceemissions.
Thecommunitycanplayitspartbyreducingmotorvehicleusage,supportingpublictransport,usingwoodheaters more efficiently and supporting industriesthatdemonstratebestpractice
emissionmanagement.Industryhasaresponsibilitytoeffectivelymanageenvironmentalimpactsandcan,inmany instances, benefit from doing so. These benefits can include resource efficiencies, increased staff engagement andretention,andimprovedcommunitystanding.Thegovernmentisresponsibleforregulationofpollutingactivitiesand industries, and can influence air qualitythroughitsinvolvementinthedevelopmentoffuelqualitystandards.
Ways to reduce air pollutionTherearemanywaysinwhichairpollutionemissionsenteringtheatmospherecanbereduced.
Theseincludelesseningvehicleemissionsbyusing:
• sustainabletransport(publictransport,cycling,walking,carpooling)
• efficient driving habits and vehicle maintenance.
Woodsmokeemissionscanbereducedby:
• burningonlydryandseasonedwood
• keeping air vents open for 20 minutes after lighting a fire
• keeping the fire live and bright, but letting it go out at night
• regularlycheckingtoensurenosmokeiscomingfromthechimney20 minutes after lighting a fire
• maintaining the flue or chimney.
Adoptingthesepollution-reducingpracticeshelptomaintaingoodairquality.
‘Theamenityofan
areacanbeseverely
impactedbypoorair
qualityoreventhe
perceptionofpoorair
quality,withresulting
negativeeconomic
consequencesfor
residentsdueto
decreasesinproperty
pricesandvalues.’
Torrens Island Power Station. Photo: Tim Lubcke
CONDITION INDICATOR
• Exceedances of NEPM guidelines for key air pollutants
NEPMguidelineshavebeendevelopedfor specific air pollutants that pose a risk tohumanhealth.Theyareacceptedstandardsagainstwhichtoevaluatethequalityoftheairwebreathe.Theimpactofpoorairqualityonplantsandanimals,asdiscussedinthechapter,arenotmanagedbytheseguidelinesand,atpresent,nosuchguidelineshavebeendeveloped.
PRESSURE INDICATOR
• Level of emissions of key air pollutants
TheNationalPollutantInventoryrecordsemissionsofkeyairpollutantsineachairshed,providinganindicationofthevolumeofandtheareasinwhichemissionsaremostheavilyconcentrated.
Indicators
21S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
CONDITION INDICATOR: Exceedances of NEPM guidelines for key air pollutants
TheNEPMforAmbientAirQualitywasintroducedinJuly1998bytheNEPCandsetsouthealthprotectionstandardsforairpollutantstobeachievedby2008,basedonhourly,four-hourly,eight-hourly,dailyand/orannualaverages,dependingonthepollutantandthemannerinwhichitaffectshumanhealth.
TheAirNEPMstandardsdonotapplytolocationsadjacenttoindividualsourcessuchasindustrialfacilities,wherepeakconcentrationsmaybeexpected,butrelatetotheexposureofthegeneralpopulationinresidentialzonesorareas.Atpresent, the Air NEPM addresses specific airpollutants:particlessmallerthan10micrometersindiameter(PM10),particlessmallerthan2.5micrometersindiameter(PM2.5),carbonmonoxide,lead,nitrogendioxide,sulfurdioxideandozone.
Thefollowinginformationcoversmonitoringresultsthatindicateconcentrationsintheenvironment,whiletheemissionsthemselvesarecoveredinthenextsectionofthechapter.
Particulate Matter
Particulate matter is monitored at five locationsintheAdelaidemetropolitanarea, two in Whyalla and five in Port Pirie. Particulatematterisgenerallyairbornedust,smokeorfumesandcanbesolidmaterialssuchassoilorextremelycomplexmixturesofsolidandliquidcombustionproducts.Someindustrialprocessescancreatedustasaconsequenceofprocessingrawmaterials.
Dust storms and bushfires can result in high levelsofparticulatesandwindgeneratedseasaltalsocontributestoairborneparticlematterloadings.Particulateshavebeenimplicatedinarangeofhealthproblems,particularlycertainrespiratoryandcardiovascularconditions.
AnadvisoryreportingstandardforPM2.5of25µg/m3fora24houraverageand8µg/m3foranannualaveragewasintroducedintotheAirNEPMin2003.TotalSuspendedParticulates(TSP)referstoparticulatewithadiameterupto50micrometres.
Adelaide
PM10particulatematterhasbeenfoundtobeanissueintheAdelaideairshed.TheAirNEPMgoalofnotexceedingthestandard
more than five times per calendar year was notmetinatleastonesitein2003and2005(sixincidenceseachyear),and2006and2007(11incidenceseachyear).
PM2.5particulatematterisalsoanissueintheAdelaideairshedwiththeannualaverageatthesolemonitoringsitebeingequaltoorgreaterthantheAirNEPMadvisoryreportingstandardin2003(once)and2006(twice).
Port Pirie
AirbornedustisofconcerninPortPirie.ContinuousPM10monitoringattheOliverStreetsiteshowsanincreasingnumberofdaysexceedingthe24hourPM10AirNEPMstandard(50µg/m3)sincecontinuousmonitoringcommencedinJune2003.Itshouldbenotedthatsomeoftheseincidencescouldbeattributedtoregionaldustevents.
Whyalla
Airborne dust remains a significant problem in Whyalla.TheNEPMmonitoringsiteiscentrallylocatedwithinWhyalla(atSchulzReserve)howevertheNEPMcriteriaofnumberofdaysexceeding50µg/m3isalsousedtoassessmonitoringdatafromthenon-NEPMsitesintheeasternpartofthecity.
TheHummockHillstationwasdecommissionedinSeptember2006.Monitoringonthebasisofonedayinthree,alsoceasedatCivicParkinJune2007.
ContinuousPM10monitoringatWallSt(inEasternWhyalla)commencedinthesecondhalfof2003andatSchulzReserve(theNEPMsite)inJuly2007.
DatafromSchulzReservefor2007doesnotdemonstratecompliancewiththeNEPMduetomonitoringnotspanningthefullyear.However,duringthesixmonthsin2007thatthesitewasactivetherewerefive exceedences of the NEPM standard indicatingtherewouldbenon-compliancewiththeNEPMgoalifmonitoringwereforthefullyear.
DatafromWallStisusedtomonitoremissionsfromOneSteelandprovidefeedbacktothecompany on the efficacy of various capital programs aimed at fine dust reduction. Note thatthissiteincludesemissionsfromsourcesotherthanOneSteel(egnaturalbornedust).Thenumberofdaysexceeding50µg/m3measuredatWallStfor2004,2005,2006,and2007are14,31,28,and25respectively.Thedatafor2004usedanalternativemonitoringmethodologyandcannotbecomparedtootherdatapresentedinthisreport.
TheairqualitymeasuredattheWallStsiteisconsideredatpresenttobeaboveacceptablelevels.
0
3
6
9
12
15
Site, Oliver Street
Source: EPA Monitoring data
20072006200520042003
Nu
mb
er o
f Exc
ee
da
nc
es
Year
What is the currents i tuat ion?
Figure 1.1: Exceedances of PM10 standard at
Oliver Street, Port Pirie (2003-2007)
Air Qual i ty
22 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
AmajorupgradetotheOneSteelsteelworks,knownasProjectMagnetcompletedinlate2007,isexpectedtoimprovetheairqualityineasternWhyalla.
Port Augusta
MonitoringforparticulatematterinPortAugustaceasedinMay2007.Themeasuredvalues(onedayinsix)weretypicallybelowtheNEPMstandard.Whenconsideredalongwithchangestothesiteovertimeandimprovementstoindustry’smanagementofstockpiles,monitoringatthissitewasnolongerrelevantorrepresentativeofthearea.TheEPAisreviewingtheneedforcontinuousparticlemonitoringinPtAugusta.
Carbon monoxide
ElizabethiscurrentlytheonlysiteinSouthAustraliawherecarbonmonoxideisbeingmonitored.MonitoringintheAdelaideCBDwasconductedataHindleyStreetsiteuntilJune2005,butwasdiscontinuedduetoredevelopmentofthesite.
AreplacementsitewaslocatedatTandanya,andoperatedbetweenSeptember2006andMarch2007.Thissitewasdiscontinuedduetovariabilityregardingaccesstothemonitoringequipment.ThereisnownocarbonmonoxidemonitoringintheAdelaideCBDhowever a new site has been identified andmonitoringisplannedtorecommenceduring2008.
Over the past five years, there have been noexceedancesoftheNEPMstandardrecordedatanyofthesites.ConsiderationisbeinggiventowhetherbroaderairqualitymonitoringshouldberesumedwithintheCBD.ThiswillbeinformedbyoutcomesofanAirNEPMreviewthatisunderwayatthetimeofwritingthisreport.
Lead
Metropolitan Adelaide
LeadedpetrolwastheprimarysourceofairborneleadinurbanareasofSouthAustralia,buthasnotbeenonsalesinceOctober2000.Sincethenthemeasuredconcentrationofairborneleadhasdecreasedwithtime.TheairborneleadconcentrationisnowwellbelowAirNEPMstandard,andconsequentlyleadlevelsarenolongermeasuredinmetropolitanAdelaide.
Pt Pirie
TheNyrstarLeadSmelter(formerlyknownasthePasmincoorZinifexLeadSmelter)in
PortPirieistheworld’slargestleadsmelterand refinery, producing approximately 230,000tonnesofleadandleadalloysperyear.Leademissionsfromthesmelterareby far the most significant environmental concernforthePortPiriecommunity.Ingestionofhistoricandnewleadparticlesfromsoilsanddustisthemajorpathwayofhumanexposure.Howeverairbornedustlevelsprovidesomeindicationofthecontributionofcurrentleademissionsandexposureofresidents.
SinceFebruary2006,aprogramknownas“tenby10”hasbeenimplementedbyNyrstar,PortPirieRegionalCouncil,DoH,andEPAaimedatreducingbloodleadlevelsinchildrenandisdiscussedinmoredetaillaterinthischapter.
TheNEPMstandardforairborneleadhasbeenexceededinPortPirieseveraltimesover the past five years. It should be noted thattheleadsmelterceasedoperationfor46daysduetoaone-in-20yearmaintenanceeventduringJulyandAugust2006.Monitoredleadlevelsaregenerallyhigherduringthatperiodoftheyear.Significantly higher lead levels are recorded attheEllenStreetmonitoringsite,locatedadjacenttothesmelterboundaryhoweverthisdatadoesnotrepresentambientairqualityandcannotbecomparedtoNEPMstandards.ResultsfromEllenStreetareusedtoevaluatesourcecontrolstrategieswithinthesmeltersite,astheseindicatethe influence of fugitive emissions from thesmelter.MeasurementsattheEllenStsitewerediscontinuedforseveralyearsduringthelate1990sandearly2000sduetoare-focussingofambientmonitoringinSouthAustraliaatthattimetowardsmoreresidentialareasofthetown.
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrogendioxide(NO2)levelsintheairare recorded at five locations within the Adelaideairshed,butnoexceedancesoftheNEPMstandardshavebeenrecordedsince1990andaverageconcentrationsarewellwithintheguidelines.NO2monitoringceasedinMountGambierinSeptember2002,afterafullyearofmonitoringrecordednoexceedances.
Sulfur dioxide
InthemetropolitanAdelaideareasulfurdioxide(SO2)iscurrentlymonitoredataNorthfield site, 8 km north east of the city. TheNEPMstandardsforSO2havenotbeenexceededsincemonitoringbeganin2002.
MonitoringattheChristiesBeachandMountGambiersiteshasceased.ThePt Stanvac oil refinery, the predominant
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4
4.4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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2001
2002
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2004
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2006
2007
2008
Senate Road
Oliver St
The Terrace
Ellen St
NEPM
Lea
d C
on
ce
ntr
atio
n (
µg/m
3)
Source: EPA Monitoring data
Figure 1.2: Annual lead levels measured at various locations throughout Port Pirie, compared with the NEPM lead standard of 0.50µg/m3 (1994-2007)
0
1
2
3
4
Month
5
6
7
8
Jul 0
2
Nov 02
Mar 0
3
Jul 0
3
Nov 03
Mar 0
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6
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6
Nov 06
Mar 0
7
Jul 0
7
Nov 07
Nu
mb
er o
d D
ays
>0.
200p
pm
Source: EPA Monitoring data
Figure 1.3: Number of days per month at Oliver Street, Port Pirie that the highest 1 hour SO2 concentrate measured per day was above the 1hr NEPM Standard of 0.20ppm (2002-2007)
23S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
sourceatChristiesBeachhasclosedandthemonitoringcampaignatMountGambierconcluded.
MonitoringforSO2inPortPiriebeganatOliverStreetin2002.Theresultsfromthissite are given in figure 1.3, displaying the numberofdayspermonththatthehighestonehourreadingforadaywasabovethe NEPM standard. Over the five years reportedinthisreport,therewere158dayswhenthehighest1-hrreadingforadaywasabovetheNEPMstandard.AstheAirNEPMgoalallowsforonlyoneexceedanceofthisstandardinacalendaryear,theseconcentrations are a significant problem.
Figure1.4showsthe24hraverageconcentrationofSO2atPtPirie-OliverStcomparedtothecurrent24hrNEPMstandardandthenew24hrWorld Health Organisation (WHO) Guideline(whichisnotlegislatedinAustralia).ShouldthisstandardbeadoptedinAustralia,theseconcentrations would also be a significant problem.
Ground level (ambient) ozone
OzoneismonitoredatvarioussitesthroughouttheAdelaideairshed,withonlyoneexceedanceoftheonehourAirNEPMstandardoccurringsince1986.ThisexceedancewasmonitoredattheNetleysiteon25January2006andisattributedto emissions from bushfires, the smoke from whichtravelledintotheAdelaideairshedfromVictoria.
Astheformationofozoneisdependantonstrongsunlighttopromotethechemicalreactionsbetweennitrogenoxidesandhydrocarbonsreleasedintotheair,itismoreprevalentduringsummer.OzoneislessofaprobleminregionalareasandmonitoringceasedinMountGambierinSeptember2002asnoexceedanceswererecorded.
Stratospheric ozone
The Ozone Protection and Synthetic Greenhouse Gas Management Act 1989 wasamendedin2003toenabletheCommonwealthGovernmenttotakecontrolofandmanagethesuiteofregulationsdealingwiththeuse,licensing,disposalandimportationofstratosphericozonedepletingsubstancesorSyntheticGreenhouseGases(SGGs).
Thestatesnowhavenoroleintheregulationandmanagementofozonedepletingsubstances.TheCSIROandtheBureauofMeteorologymonitorforstratosphericozonedepletingsubstancesandtheireffectsontheenvironmentonbehalfoftheCommonwealthGovernment.
Resultsreportedinthe 2006 Australian State of Environment ReportbytheFederalDepartmentofEnvironmentandWaterResourcesregardingstratosphericozonestatedthatthe:
• Totalamountofchlorinefromozonedepletingsubstancesinthestratosphereisslowlydecreasing;
• TheAntarcticholeintheOzonelayerstoppedgrowinginmid1990salthough no significant reduction in sizehasbeenobserved;
• ThetotalamountofozoneinthestratosphereoverAustraliaandNewZealandhasstartedtoincreasesince2000.
Furtherdetailsontheseresultscanbefoundat: www.environment.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/commentaries/atmosphere/stratospheric-ozone.html
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SO
2 c
on
ce
ntr
atio
ns
- 24
hr a
ve (
pp
m)
24hr SO2 NEPM Standard - 0.080ppm24hr SO2 Revised WHO Guideline - 0.007ppm
Figure 1.4: 24 hour SO2 concentrations at Oliver Street, Port Pirie, compared with the 24 hour NEPM standard of 0.08 ppm and the revised WHO guideline of 0.007ppm (2002-2007)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Benze
ne
Carbon
Monoxide
Lead
NOxSO
2
VOCs
Pollutant
Perc
en
tag
e o
f To
tal E
miss
ion
Industry
Source: National Pollutant Inventory 02/03
Aggregate
Figure 1.5: The relative contributions from
industrial and non-industrial sources of various
pollutants to the atmosphere, based on 2002-
2003 National Pollutant Inventory estimates
Air Qual i ty
24 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
PRESSURE INDICATOR: Level of emissions of key air pollutants
ThemajorsourceforinformationonairpollutionemissionsistheinternetdatabasefortheNationalPollutantInventory(NPI).IndustriesfeedestimatesoftheiremissionstotheairintotheNPIeachyear.Thisprovidesaneasywaytodeterminewhetheremissionsfrom specific industries are increasing eachyear,andwhetheremissionsareincreasingineachairshed.
TheEPAhasresponsibilityforestimatingemissionsfromaggregatesourcesincludingmobilesources(privateandcommercialvehicles),domesticsources(lawnmowers,smallenginesandwoodheaters),andsmallcommercialsources(drycleaners,bakeriesandpetrolstations).Whilethesesourcesemitonlysmallamountsofpollutantsindividually,theircontributionacrosstheentireairshedis significant.
Industry’scontributiontoairpollutioninSouthAustralia,calculatedfromtheinventory data, is shown in figure 1.5 and variesdependingonthepollutant.Itrangesfrom7%forbenzeneto99%forsulfurdioxide.
Thebreakdownofsourcesforkeyairpollutantsvariesdependingontheairshedanditsgeographicallocation,e.g.recreationalboatinghasamuchgreaterimpactonemissionsintheRiverlandthanitdoesintheSouthEast.Basedonthe2002-03NPIaggregateemissiondatabase,thelargestsourcesofthe ‘Air Toxics’:Benzene,VOC,NitrousOxide,andCarbonMonoxideinallSouthAustralianairshedsaremotorvehiclesand solid fuel fires such as domestic woodheaters.
MotorvehiclesarealsothelargestsourceofSOinallairshedsexcepttheSpencerGulf,withcommercialshippingcontributing89%oftotalaggregateemissions.Thelargestaggregate(non-industrial)sourceofleadinallairshedsisre-entraineddustfrompavedandunpavedroads,whereleadfromhistoricemissionsfrommotorvehicleshasaccumulatedinthesoil.Thissourcecontributesbetween48%(Adelaideairshed)to96%(Barossaairshed)ofemissions,howeverthetotallevelsarenowverysmallgiventhephasingoutofleadedfuelsinthe1990s.
What are the pressures?
ATMOSPHERE
Fuel Combustion - sub reporting threshold facilties
Gaseous fuel burning (domestic)
Commercial Shipping/Boating
Railways
Aeroplanes
Solid fuel burning (domestic)
Lawn Mowing
Liquid fuel burning (domestic)
Motor Vehicles
86.6%
9.2%
1.0%0.8
%0.7
%0.4
%0.1
%
1.1%
Motor Vehicles
Lawn Mow ing
Solid fuel burning(domestic)
Service stations
Print Shops / Graphic Arts
Recreational Boating
Aeroplanes
Source: National Pollutant Inventory 02/03 (NPI)
68.1%15.9%
10.9%
3.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Motor Vehicles
Domestic/Commercialsolvents/ aerosols
Solid fuel burning (domestic)
Architectural Surface Coatings
Natural/Town Gas Leakage
Lawn Mowing
Service stations
Motor Vehicle Refinishing
Print Shops / Graphic Arts
Dry Cleaning
Bakeries
Fuel Combustion - sub reporting threshold facilities
Solvent Use - Sub-threshold facilitiesCutback Bitumen
Aeroplanes
Recreational Boating
Commercial Shipping/Boating
0.4%
0.3%0.2
%
0.1%
47.0%
14.0%
11.0%
7.3%
7.3%
4.9%
3.8%1.6%
1.2%
Figure 1.8: The relative contribution of various Oxides of Nitrogen sources in the Adelaide airshed based on 2002-2003 National Pollutant Inventory estimates
Figure 1.6: The relative contribution of various Benzene sources in the Adelaide airshed based on 2002-2003 National Pollutant Inventory estimates
Figure 1.7: The relative contribution of various VOC sources in the Adelaide airshed based on 2002-2003 National Pollutant Inventory estimates
Withmotorvehiclesbeingadominantsourceofairemissions,changesinvehiclenumbersandfuelconsumptionare likely to have a significant impact onairqualityinthefuture.Overthepastdecade,therehasbeenachangeinthetypeoffuelconsumed.Pastchangestofuelqualityandtype,includingthebanningofthesaleofleadedfuel,haveledtonoticeabledifferencesintheambientairqualityincludingthevirtualremovalofleadasanurbanairpollutant.
AdvancesinfuelqualityandengineperformancecontinuetobemadethroughapplicationoftheAustralianDesignRules.Forexample,AustraliahasrecentlyadoptedtheEuro3andEuro4standardsforpetrolanddieselasasteptowardsimprovedengineemissions.Itislikelythatnewfueltypesandfuturechangesinconsumptiontrendswillhavefurtherimpactsonairquality.
TheintroductionofbiofuelssuchasethanolblendedpetrolandbiodieselmayalsoplayapartinairqualityinSouthAustralia.Whileethanolblendedfuelsmayreducetheemissionofvolatileorganiccompounds(VOCs),theymayalsoincreasetheemissionofsomemoretoxicpollutants.Thisissueneedsfurtherinvestigationtodeterminewhattheeffectswillbe,especiallyontheAdelaideairshed.
SouthAustralia’spopulationtargetwithsubsequentlyincreasingnumbersofmotorvehiclesislikelytohaveasignificant impact on ambient air quality.Withanestimatedincreasein the road fleet of 14.8% by 2014 15(Apelbaum,2007),theaddedemissionsareexpectedtooffsetgainsmadethroughfuelqualityandengineimprovements.Theymay,dependingonwhetheranairshedislimitedbyNitrousOxideorVOCs,leadnotonlytoanincreaseinthenumberofexceedancesfortheseprimarypollutants,butalsoanincreaseinthenumberofexceedancesofsecondarypollutantssuchasozone.Thiswillbeexacerbatedbyincreasedtraffic congestion if not managed properly.
25S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
Lawn Mowing
Solid fuel burning (domestic)
Fuel Combustion - sub reporting threshold facilities
Recreational Boating
Gaseous fuel burning (domestic)
Commercial Shipping/Boating
AeroplanesMotor Vehicles
82.2%
10.6%
4.6%1.6%
0.7%0.2
%0.1
%
Lawn Mow ing
Motor Vehicles
Aeroplanes
Paved/Unpaved Roads Fuel Combustion -sub reporting threshold facilities
Recreational Boating
Gaseous fuel burning(domestic)
47.9%37.9%
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Figure 1.9: The relative contribution of various Carbon Monoxide sources in the Adelaide airshed based on 2002 - 2003 National Pollutant Inventory estimates
Figure 1.10: The relative contribution of vari-ous Lead sources in the Adelaide airshed based on 2002-2003 National Pollutant Inventory estimates
Figure 1.11: Changes in the annual consumption (ML) of various fuel types for South Australia (2000-2005)
What are we doing about i t?
TheEPAisfocusingonseveralofareastomaintaingenerallygoodairqualityacrossallSouthAustralianairsheds.Theseinclude:
• ReviewingandupdatingtheEnvironment Protection Policy (Air Quality)forcompletionin2009.
• DevelopingacomprehensiveSouthAustralianAirQualityManagementPlanforcompletionin2009.
• Monitoring air quality at specific locationsnotonlytodeterminecompliancewithlegislationsuchasAirNEPM,butalsotoidentifyairqualitytrends.
• Gainingagreaterunderstandingofthemovementofpollutantswithinairshedsthroughtheuseofatmosphericcomputermodels.
• Usingairqualitymodelstoforecasttheimpactofairpollutionbasedonchangesinemissionsfromvarioussources.
• DevelopingandimplementingtargetededucationandbehaviourchangeprogramssuchasAirWatch,SmokeWatchandTravelSmart.
• Workingwithindustrytoreduceemissionsfromindividualfacilitiesandtheirimpactonthesurroundingcommunity.OneSteel’sProjectMagnetinWhyallaandthejointNyrstar/StateGovernmentbloodleadreductionprogram(tenby10)inchildrenprograminPtPirieareexamplesofthisapproach.
• Contributingtothedevelopmentandmaintenanceofairqualitypolicies,legislationandstandardsatvariouslevelsofgovernment.
UpdatingtheEnvironment Protection Policy (Air Quality)willprovideasingle,comprehensiveairqualitypolicyforSouthAustraliathatincorporatesmatterscoveredbythecurrentAirQuality,BurningandFuelQualityEPPs.ItwillalsoincluderelevanttopicsfromthevariousNationalEnvironmentProtectionMeasuresthatrelatetoprotectionoftheairenvironment,andanyothercurrentandemergingmattersthathaveimplicationsforthisstate’sairenvironment.
TheSouth Australian Air Quality Management Planiscurrentlybeing
developed.Thedocumentwillprovideastrategicframeworkaddressingmonitoringofanddevelopingresponsesto,airqualitymanagementissuesacrossthestate.ItwillprovideablueprintforcollaborativeairqualitymanagementinSouthAustraliabetweengovernmentagencies,industryandthecommunity.
OneSteel’sProjectMagnetisprimarilytheconversionofthesteelworksfromtheuseofdryhaematitetoawetmagnetitefeedtoextendthelifeofthesteelworksandincreaseproductivity.ThechangestotheproductionprocessareanticipatedtoreducetheamountofdustfromthesteelworksthroughtherelocationofthecrushingandscreeningplanttotheneworemineintheSouthMiddlebackRange,updatingfacilitiestoreducefugitivedustemissionsfromorecarsandshiploading,aswellasaddingmoisturetotheexportironore.
InFebruary2006,the‘tenby10’projectwaslaunchedbyZinifex,thenownersoftheleadsmelter,inpartnershipwithDoH,PortPirieRegionalCouncilandtheEPA,withacommonplantocompre-hensivelyaddresschildren’sexposuretolead.TheprojecthasbeencontinuedbycurrentownersNyrstarandtargetsthereductionofbloodleadlevelsinchildrenby implementing strategies to specifically andaggressivelyreducefugitiveleademissionsandleadexposureinthecommunity.
Thegoalofthe‘tenby10’initiativeisforatleast95%ofchildreninthePortPiriecommunitywhoareaged0-4years,tohaveabloodleadleveloflessthan10µg/dLbytheendof2010.
Itisestimatedthatby30June2007,approximately48%(390)ofchildrenhadabloodleadlevelequaltoorabove10µg/dLcomparedto53%asreportedinthe2003StateoftheEnvironmentReport.BasedonABSpopulationestimatesthatfigure will need to be reduced to around 40childrenbytheendof2010ifthe‘tenby10’goalistobeachieved.Furtherinformationontheproject,includingcompanyinitiativesdesignedtoreducefugitiveemissionsisavailableatwww.tenby10.com
In2006and2007aspartofthebroaderapproachtoimprovingairquality,theEPAinpartnershipwiththeAdelaideHillsCouncilimplementedatwo-yearpilotbehaviourchangeprogramcalledSmokeWatch.
Theprogram’saimhasbeenthereductionoftheamountofwood
Air Qual i ty
26 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
What more should we be doing?
ATMOSPHERE
smokefromhouseholdwoodheaters.Itincorporateda ‘SmokeWatch Challenge’thatencouragedhouseholderstouse efficient wood-heating practices throughoutwinter,plusschoolactivitiesandpartnershipswithlocalbusinesses.Followingevaluationofresultsofthepilotprogram,itisanticipatedthattheEPAwillconsiderrollingouttheprogram,approachingotherlocalcouncilstopartnerinitsdelivery.
AreviewoftheEPA’sairqualitymonitoringnetworkisbeingundertakentodeterminewhetheritisoperatingtoitsfullpotentialanddeliveringinformationto fulfil its strategic requirements. As partofthisreview,datafrompreviousmonitoringisbeinganalysedtoassistinidentifyingpatternsofairpollutantmovementineachofthestate’smajorairsheds.ThecurrentmonitoringplanwasbasedonastudyconductedbyCSIROinthelate1990stodeterminearepresentativemonitoringprogramacrosstheStategivensetresourcesandtheStateGovernment’srequirementsundertheAirNEPM.Thisplan,however,hasalsobeenalteredinresponsetotheairqualityconcernsofthecommunity.
Thiswillinformstrategiestooptimisemonitoringwithineachairshedtoensurethatitaccuratelydeterminesairquality trends and identifies areas where particularattentionisrequired.Thereviewisscheduledforcompletioninlate2008.
AirQualityiscloselylinkedtotransport.Thestategovernmenthasresponsibilityfortransportplanningandcertain
TheEnvironmentProtectionAuthorityrecommendsthefollowing:
R1.1 Implement an Air Quality Strategy for South Australia that identifies currentandfuturerisks,prioritiesandmanagementobjectives.
Smoke clouds from 2007 bushfires on Kangaroo Island. Photo: DEH
Alignment of Recommendations with South Australia’s Strategic Plan targets
ForfurtherdetailonSouthAustralia’sStrategic Planvisitwww.stateplan.sa.gov.au
componentsofregulation.ThereismoreonthistopicintheTransport chapterofthisreport.
R1.1
Growing Prosperity T1.22, T1.8
Improving Wellbeing T2.4
Attaining Sustainability
Fostering Creativity and Innovation
Building Communities
Expanding Opportunities
27S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
Apelbaum,J.(2007).South Australian Transport Facts
AirQualityMonitoringdata,EnvironmentProtectionAuthority,SouthAustralia
CalifornianAirResourcesBoard(1997),Research Notes - Estimated Crop Yield Losses from Air Pollutants in California: 1989 – 1992,CaliforniaEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Sacramento,California,USA.www.arb.ca.gov/research/resnotes/notes/97-1.html
DepartmentofEnvironmentandConservationAir Pollution Economics: Health Costs of Air Pollution in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region (Dec2005),GovernmentofNewSouthWales,Sydney. www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/airpollution05623.pdf
DepartmentofHealth(2005).The Port Pirie Lead Implementation Program Future Focus and Directions, GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.health.sa.gov.au/pehs/PDF-files/ptpirie-future-focus-06.pdf
EnvironmentProtectionAuthority(2003).The State of Our Environment - State of Environment Report for South Australia 2003,GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.environment.sa.gov.au/soe2003/report.html
EnvironmentProtectionAuthority(2005). South Australia’s Air Quality – 2004,GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.epa.sa.gov.au/pdfs/air_quality_2004.pdf
EnvironmentProtectionAuthority(2006). South Australia’s Air Quality 2005, GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.epa.sa.gov.au/pdfs/air_quality_2005.pdf
EnvironmentProtectionAuthority(2007). South Australia’s Air Quality 2006, GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.epa.sa.gov.au/pdfs/air_quality_2006.pdf
EnvironmentProtectionAuthority(2004).Ambient Air Quality Monitoring – South Australia 1979 - 2003,GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.epa.sa.gov.au/pdfs/aq_report.pdf
References
Ai r Qual i ty
Knighton,Ray(2006),Ozone Research and Vegetative Impacts, UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture,Portland,Oregon,USAwww.airquality.nrcs.usda.gov/AAQTF/Documents/Washington_Nov_2006/Ozone_Research.pdf
Talbot,L.,Rowett,A.,Abbot,P.(2004),Magnetite – OneSteel Whyalla’s new attraction,MESAJournal,Adelaide.www.pir.sa.gov.au/_data/assets/pdf_file/0009/11025/m/35_onesteel_magnetite.pdf
Zinifex(2007).ZinifexPort Pirie Smelter Sustainable Development Report 2006 www.nyrstar.com/en/community Environment/siteReports/2006Zinifex/H02926ZinifexPortPirie.pdf
National Environment Protection Council www.ephc.gov.au
World Health Organisation www.who.int/en/
United States Environment Protection Agency - Air Pollutants www.epa.gov/air/airpollutants.html
National Pollutant Inventory www.npi.gov.au
Department of Environment www.environment.gov.au/ozone/ index.html
Bureau of Meteorology Atmosphere Watch Section www.bom.gov.au/inside/oeb/atmoswatch/aboutozone.shtml
Department of Environment and Water Resources Australian Antarctic Division www.aad.gov.au/default asp?casid=2850
Fur ther In format ion
28 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
Climate Change
• GreenhousegasemissionsDECREASED7%since1990
• GreenhousegasemissionsourcesINCREASED11%since1990butareSTABLEsince2001
• StationaryenergysectoremissionsINCREASED36%since1990
• TransportsectoremissionsourcesINCREASED6%since1990
• AgriculturesectoremissionsourcesDECREASED4%since1990
Emissionsbyend-useeconomicsectors
• Residentialsectorenergy&transportemissionsINCREASED28%since1990
• CommercialsectoremissionsINCREASED 26%since1990
• Industrialsectoremissions INCREASED 7%since1990
Notes to the above figures:
Unlike the last report, this State of the Environment Report compares the latest emissions data to those of 1990, as that is the relevant reference year in international climate discussions. 1990 was the base year for the Kyoto Protocol and also the South Australian Climate Change and Greenhouse Emissions Reduction Act 2007.
The figures include offset for reduction in net emissions from the emissions category known as land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). If LULUCF is excluded from the figures, South Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions have risen by around 11% since 1990. This trend in net emissions has been due to a substantial increase in emissions sinks balancing a similar increase in emissions sources.
LULUCF went from being a 1.6 million tonne emissions source in 1990 to a 3.6 million tonne emissions sink in 2001 and a 4.1 million tonne sink in 2006 (Department of Climate Change, 2006). Sinks have a finite capacity to offset emissions.
The data does however include net emissions from interstate electricity transfers (adding 0.6 million tonnes in 1990 and 3.2 million tonnes in 2006) and are rounded to two significant figures.
Trends Goal
T3.5AchievetheKyototargetbylimitingthestate’sgreenhousegasemissionsto108%of1990levelsduring2008-2012,asa first step towards reducing emissions by60%(to40%of1990levels)by2050
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
T3.6Useofpublictransport:increasetheuseofpublictransportto10%ofmetropolitanweekdaypassengervehiclekilometrestravelledby2018.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
T3.7Ecologicalfootprint:reduceSouthAustralia’secologicalfootprintby30%by2050.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
T3.8 Zero Waste: reduce waste to landfill by25%by2014.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
T3.12Renewableenergy:supportthedevelopmentofrenewableenergysothatitcomprises20%oftheState’selectricityproductionandconsumptionby2014.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
T3.13 Energy efficiency – government buildings: improve the energy efficiency ofgovernmentbuildingsby25%from2000-01levelsby2014.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
T3.14 Energy efficiency – Dwellings: increase the energy efficiency of dwellingsby10%from2000-01levelsby2014.
South Australia’s Strategic Plan 2007
Tackling Climate Change, South Australia’s Greenhouse Strategy 2007-2020 alsocontainsanumberofobjectives,strategiesandgovernmentactionstoreduceemissionsandenhancethestate’sresiliencetoachangingclimate.
‘Whilemanynatural
factorsaffect
Earth’sclimate,the
recentwarmingis
unprecedentedover
thepastmillennia.’
Langhorne Creek/Lake Alexandrina in drought condition. Photo: EPA
29S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
Cl imate Change and a sus tainable South Aust ra l ia
Climatechangecausedbytheenhancedgreenhouseeffectisnowevidentfromincreasedglobalaverageairtemperatures,widespreadmeltingofsnowandice,risesinglobalaveragesealevel,changesinprecipitationpatternsandoceancurrents(IPCC,2007),andshiftsofplant,insectandanimalranges(IPCC,2007).Figure1.12highlightstherelativelyhighertemperaturesexperiencedgloballyinthepast15yearscomparedtotheyearssince1850.
WhilemanynaturalfactorsaffectEarth’sclimate,therecentwarmingisunprecedentedoverthepastmillennia.Deep-timegeochemicalandbiologicalproxiessuchasoxygenisotopesfromicecoresandtreeringdata,coupledwithsophisticated climate models confirm thatthishasbeenprimarilycausedbyhumanactivities(IPCC,2007).
Sincetheindustrialrevolution,humanshavesubstantiallyalteredtheEarth’satmospherebyincreasingconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,
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decade are labelled. The data are from the HadCRIT3 dataset. More information is available at
www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobsSource: HadCRUT3 dataset
methane,nitrousoxideandothergreenhousegasesthroughburningfossilfuels,industrialandagriculturalpractices,andlandclearing.Examinationoficecoreshasrevealedthatlevelsofcarbondioxideandmethanearenowfaroutsidetheirrangesofnaturalvariabilityoverthelast650,000years.Theglobalatmosphericconcentrationofcarbondioxidein2008is35%higherat382partspermillion(ppm)thanthepre-industriallevelof280ppm.Methaneconcentrationshaveincreased151%(CSIRO,2006).
InSouthAustralia,theaveragesurfacetemperatureroseby0.96°Cbetween1910and2005,higherthantheobservedincreaseinthenationaltemperatureof0.89°C,and0.74°Cgloballyduringthistime(seeFigure1.13).ThiswarminghasbeenaccompaniedbyamarkeddeclineinprecipitationinsouthwesternandeasternAustralia(CSIRO,2006).
The1992UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)calledfor“stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
Recent scientific findings suggest temperatureincreasesofmorethan2°C
Figure 1.12: Observed global average surface temperature differences from the average for 1961 to 1990
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Figure 1.13: South Australia Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly (base 1961-90)
Goyder’s Line
In1886thensurveyor-generalofSouthAustralia,GeorgeWoodroffeGoyder,publishedamapthatillustrated“thelineofdemarcationbetweenthatportionofthecountrywheretherainfallhasextended,andthatwherethedroughtprevails”.Intheearly1870sandearly20thcenturyfarminglandwasopenedupnorthoftheline,howeverinbothcasesdroughtprevailedandnumerousnorthernfarmsconvertedtograzing.
In2005DrPeterHaymanofSARDIandDrMarkHowdenofCSIROpresented findings that there is a chanceGoyder’slinecouldmovenorth,buttherewasahigherchancethatitwouldmovesouthabout50kilometresby2070,asaresultofadverseclimatechange.Thislattermovewouldrestrictthestate’sreliablecroppingland.
In2007theseresearchersfoundthatmanyinthelocalagriculturalindustryfeltthattechnologymaybalanceadverseclimatechangeuntil2030,butby2070theeffectsofadverseclimatechangewouldoutstriptechnology’sabilitytocompensate.
Drought
Climate Change
30 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
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abovepre-industriallevelswillconstitutedangerousclimatechangeasbasedonthelikelyeffectsonsealevelandtheexterminationofspecies(IPCC,2007).Seeminglysmall,suchchangesinclimatewillresultinsubstantiallyincreasedrisksofextremeeventssuchasheatwaves,droughts, floods and bushfires, instability ofpolaricesheets,andmajorlossofglobalbiodiversity.ThiswouldhaveaseriousimpactonAustralia’senvironment,economyandpublichealth.
Partoftheproblemwiththedevelopmentofstrategiesaroundadverseclimatechange,isthatthewiderpublicexperiencesmuchlargerday-to-dayvariationsintemperatureanddoesnot fully appreciate the significance of consistenttrendsinsmallchanges.Thedifferencebetweenaniceageandaninterglacialperiodisonly5oCandglobalwarmingthusfarhasbeenmorethan10%ofthis.
Duetothevulnerabilityofanumberof Australia’s ecosystems, significant adverseconsequencesareprojectedfromrelativelysmallshiftsinclimaticconditions.Infact,recentmodestclimatechangeshavealreadyimpactedontheabundance,distributionandbehaviourofawiderangeofAustralianspecies(Hughes,2003)includingwithinSouthAustralia.Theyalsocontributedtothedisappearanceofsomespeciesglobally(Poundset al.,2006).Decreasedrainfallandreducedsoilmoisturebalancewilllessenagriculturalproductivityandplaceforestplantationsatfurtherriskfrombushfires. Higher temperatures will stress livestockandlowerthequalityofgrazingland.FurtherpressurewillbeplacedonSouthAustralia’swaterresourcesduetoreduced inflows to rivers and reservoirs, andincreaseddemand(CSIRO,2006.
Evenifgreenhousegasemissionsceasedtoday,theexistingatmosphericgasconcentrationswillresultinadditionalwarmingoftheplanetof0.2-1.0°Cbytheendofthecentury(CSIRO,2006).BasedonthefutureemissionstrajectoriesoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC-thekeyinternationalbodythatassessesthelatestclimatechangescience),CSIROclimatemodelsrevealthatabusinessasusualemissionsscenariowillresultinawarminginAustraliaof0.4–2.0ºCabove1990levelsby2030and1.0–6.0ºCby2070(CSIRO,2006).
ManyimportantobservationshavebeenpublishedsincethelatestIPCCassessment,indicatingthatthethreatofglobalwarmingmayhavebeen
Figure 1.15: Cape Grim Tasmania Methane parts per billion
Figure 1.14: Cape Grim Tasmania CO2 parts per million
Indicators
CONDITION INDICATOR
• Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases
ConditionIndicatorsaretheannualaverageatmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousegasesandlocalobservationsofclimatechanges.Othersectionsofthereportprovidedetailsofindicatorsofbiologicalandeconomicresponsestoglobaladverseclimatechange.
PRESSURE INDICATORS
• Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia
Determiningthesourceofgreenhousegasemissionsprovidesfocusonthosesectorsthatrequiregreatestintervention.
underestimatedinthatreport.Theseinclude:
• GlobalcarbondioxideemissionsgrowthisacceleratingfasterthantheworstcaseIPCCemissionsscenarios(Raupachet al.,2007);
• Arcticsea-icemayberetreatingmorerapidlythananticipated(NationalSnowandIceDataCentre,BoulderColorado2008);
• Thecapacityofglobaloceanstoabsorbcarbondioxidemayalreadybediminishing(Canadellet al.,2007).
• Intheabsenceofeffortstocurtailemissions,itisnowprobablethattheimpactofwarmingwillbeattheupperendofpredictions(CASPI,2007).
Climatescienceisnowprovidingastrongcaseforurgentactiontosignificantly reduce greenhouse gasemissionstoavoidcatastrophicconsequencesforhumanityandmostotherlifeontheplanet.WhetherthechangesthatarecurrentlybeingexperiencedintheSouthAustralianclimatecanbefullyexplainedbyhuman-inducedactionsandgreenhousegasemissionsornot,itisclearthatacautionaryapproachtotheevidentrisksinvolvedrequirepoliciesandstrategiestoenhanceouradaptivecapacity,loweremissionsandreducetheecologicalfootprintofhumanactivity.
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Figure 1.16: Cape Grim Tasmania N2O parts per billion
Map 1.1: Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960-2006 (mm/10yrs)
Map 1.2: Trend in Mean Temperature
1960-2006 (°C/10yrs)
• Gross State Product per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia
SouthAustraliashouldbeaimingtoincreaseGrossStateProductpertonneofgreenhousegasemissionsasthisdemonstratesaneconomythatutilisescarbon more efficiently. Conversely, areductioninthisindicatorshowsthatoureconomyisbecomingmorecarbonintensive.
• Net greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia indexed against population
Thisindicatordemonstratespercapitaemissionswhichareindicativeofconsumption and carbon efficiency of theeconomy.
CONDITION INDICATOR: Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases
Thethreemostimportantlong-livedgreenhousegasesfromhumanactivityarecarbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O).Theatmosphericconcentrationsofthesegaseshavebeenobservedtoincreasemarkedlyoverrecentdecades.
TheCSIROandBureauofMeteorologymonitorgreenhousegasconcentrationsattheCapeGrimfacilityonTasmania’snorthwestcoast(www.bom.gov.au/inside/cgbaps/).Giventherelativelylonglifeofthesegasesintheatmosphere,observationsatCapeGrimareindicativeofSouthAustralianconcentrations.
Carbon dioxide is the most significant anthropogenicgreenhousegas,withanatmosphericconcentrationof382partspermillioninMay2008.AtCapeGrim,readingsshowtheannualemissionsofCO2havegrownbyabout80%since1974,andhaveincreasedatahigherrateinthelastdecade(Raupachetal.,2007;IPCC,2007).
Theatmosphericconcentrationofmethaneincreasedfromapre-industrialvalueofabout715partsperbillionto1717inMay2008.Duringthissameperiod,nitrousoxideconcentrationshaveincreasedfromabout270to321partsperbillion.
TheIPCCestimatesthattheatmosphericcarbondioxideequivalent
(CO2-e)concentrationofalllong-livedgreenhousegasesiscurrentlyabout455partspermillion.Anthropogenicaerosolsandotherpollutantscurrentlymoderatethewarmingeffect,givinganeffectiveconcentrationof375partspermillionCO2-e.However,effortstocontrolairbornepollutantswillcausethismoderatingorcoolingeffecttodecline,whilethewarmingassociatedwithgreenhousegasesremainsbecauseofthelifeofCO2intheatmosphere(IPCC,2007andCASPI,2007).
Figures1.14–1.16showthetrendsofincreasingconcentrationsofthethreemaingreenhousegasesoverrecentdecades.
Observed changes in climate
TheCSIROhasconductedanumberofstudiesonSouthAustralia’stemperatureandrainfalltrendssincethe2003StateoftheEnvironmentreport.MostrecentlyhasbeenacomprehensivestudyentitledClimate Change in AustraliaaspartofAustralia’sClimateChangeScienceProgramwiththeBureauofMeteorology.Thisreportalsogivesupdatedprojectionsfor2030and2070aspreviouslycitedinthischapter.www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi
Map1.1and1.2illustrateannualtrendsinMeanTemperatureandRainfallsince1960.Seasonaldataoverthesameperiodsshowsthatrainfalldeclineispredominantlyoccurringinautumn.
Inordertocontaintheglobaltemperatureincreaseatamaximumof2-2.4ºCabovepreindustriallevels,theIPCChaveadvisedthatgreenhousegasconcentrationlevelsneedtobestabilisedat445-490partspermillionofCO2-e(IPCC,2007).Deepcutsingreenhousegasemissionsareurgentlyrequiredtoachievetheselevelsandavoidthemoresevereprojectedadverseclimatechangeimpacts.Giventhatthereiscurrentlyapproximately450partspermillion,thisisalreadyinthedangerousrangeandonceaerosolpollutantsarecontrolled,thiswarmingwillbefullyrealised.Thatis,noorverylittlefurtheremissionsgrowthispermissibleifwarmingistoberestrictedtobelow2°C.
Thecurrentlyperceivedhighlevelofthreathasprovidedtheurgencyforsettingtargetstostabilisegreenhousegasconcentrationlevelsinthedesiredrange.Thedangercouldescalateiftherateofwarmingturnsouttobeattheupperlimitofcurrentprojectionsand/or
What is the currents i tuat ion?
0.600.400.300.200.150.100.050.00
-0.05-0.10-0.15-0.20-0.30-0.40-0.60
50.040.030.020.015.010.05.00.0
-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0
Climate Change
Source:AustralianBureauofMeteorology
Source:AustralianBureauofMeteorology
32 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
ifsensitivitiestotheapparentlysmallchangesintemperaturearefoundtobe more significant than anticipated. Thisisthenatureofriskmanagement,theongoingweighingofthepotentialseverityofchangeagainsttheprobabilityofitsoccurrence.Itwillnotremainconstantandstrategiesareneededtoreflect this.
UNFCCCnegotiationsareunderwayonpreparinganewinternationalclimatechangeagreement(postKyoto)byDecember2009,withtheaimofestablishingmoresubstantialemissionsabatementtargets.Inrecognitionoftheirhistoricalresponsibilityforglobalwarming,indicationsarethatdevelopedcountrieswillberequiredtoreducegreenhousegasemissionsto25-40%below1990levelsby2020,and80-95%by2050,toachievethedesiredconcentrationstabilisationlevel(IPCC,2007).Currentstatepolicytargets are below these scientific targets, butareapositivestepintherightdirection.Aspartofamoreconcertednationaleffortonreducingemissionsandunderstandingtheimplicationsofadverseclimatechange,SouthAustraliamustbothcontinuetoactivelyparticipateinthenationalprocesses,andidentifyappropriateandeffectiveactionsatthestatelevel.
Agrowingeconomy,especiallyonethatisexpandingintoenergyintensivesectorssuchasmining,willseeemissionsfromenergysectorsincreasewhileaccesstowaterislikelytolimitthecontributionofvegetationasacarbonsink.Theneteffectisupwardpressureonthestate’semissionsinventory.
Thestatehasyettodemonstrateongoingstabilisationofemissionsandfurtherdecouplingofemissionsfromeconomicgrowthisrequired.
Analysisofthetrendsatasectorallevelshows that a focus on energy efficiency willbeanecessarycomplementtotheexpansionofrenewableenergyifwearetocontainemissionsgrowthintheenergysector.Thisappliesparticularlyintheshortterm where energy efficiency options canoftenbeachievedquicklyandwithpositive economic benefit.
Thelargeincreaseinatmosphericconcentrationsofthekeygreenhousegasesandtheobservedtrendsintemperatureandrainfallsupporttheviewthatsomelevelofadverseclimatechangeisinevitable.ProjectionsfromtheCSIROandBureauofMeteorologyin2007indicatethatthestatecanexpecttohave
ahotter,drierclimatewithanincreasedrisk of bushfires, drought and other extreme climaticeventsaswellasincreasedevapo-transpiration,sealevels,coastalerosionandsolarradiation.Understandingtheimplicationsofthisforthestate’sbiodiversity,regionsandindustries,particularlythosethatrelyonnaturalresources,mustbecomeahighpriority.
PRESSURE INDICATOR: Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia
SouthAustralia’sEmissionsInventoryiscompiledfromdataprovidedbytheDepartmentofClimateChange(DCC,formerlytheAustralianGreenhouseOffice) to which is added a quantity reflecting the emissions occurring in the easternstatesasaresultoftheelectricitythisstatereceivesoverthetwointerconnectors.
In 1990 the first full year of operation of theHeywoodInterconnectorthisquantitywasaround0.6MtCO2-e,andstoodataround3.2Mtin2006.Flowsacrosstheinterconnector are a reflection of relative pricesinthewholesaleelectricitymarket.TheaverageemissionsgeneratedbyaunitofelectricitygeneratedinSouthAustraliaareveryclosetotheaverageintensityacrosstheentireNationalElectricityMarket,i.e.closetoonetonneofCO2-eperMegawatt-hour(or1kg/kWh)in2006.
SouthAustralia’semissionssourcesareshowninTable1.1.
Whileelectricitygenerationcontinuestobethebiggestsourceofemissions,therehasbeenadramaticgrowthinwindgeneratedrenewableelectricityinSouthAustraliarecentlyandthisisforecasttogrowtoaround20%oftheelectricitygeneratedinSAby2010.
SouthAustraliaalsohasenormouspotentialtogenerateelectricityfromgeothermalenergy,asithaslargeregionsofnaturallyoccurringundergroundheat. A significant amount of exploration investmentisbeingdevotedtoexploitingtheseresources(refertotheEnergy chapter).
Themostobviousimprovementsinemissionssince1990havebeenthevirtualcessationoflandclearing,whichcanbeconsideredaoneoffemissionsreduction,andtheexpansionofforestry
What are the pressures?Angas River. Photo: EPA
Dry lake bed, Cooongie Lakes complex. Photo: Wetlands International
33S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
1990 2006 % Change
Electricity Generation 7.1 11.1 + 56%
Other Stationary Energy 5.4 5.9 + 10%
Venting, Flaring and Fugitives 4.0 3.2 -19%
Industrial Processes 3.0 3.1 + 6%
Road Transport 4.7 5.1 + 8%
Air, sea, rail and other transport 0.7 0.7 -4%
Agricultural soils 1.2 1.3 + 16%
Livestock 4.4 4.0 -10%
Solid and Liquid Waste 1.4 0.9 -35%
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) 1.6 -4.1 -360%
33.3 31.2 -7%
TOTAL (exc. LULUCF)
TOTAL (inc. LULUCF)
31.7 35.3 + 11%
Note: Due to representation of numbers some change is realised outside of the decima places presented and is reported as such. Explanation of sectors: Stationary Energy – emissions from fossil fuel combustion for non transport energy use, for the generation of
electricity, heat production and by industry. Includes fugitive emissions from oil and gas production; Transport – emissions from the use of petrol, LPG and diesel; Agriculture – mainly the release of methane from the digestive processes of livestock and nitrous oxide emissions from soil management practices associated with crop production; Industrial processes – direct emissions generated by
chemical reactions from a range of production processes, including the production of cement, iron and steel. Solid and Liquid Waste– mainly emissions of methane from the anaerobic decomposition of organic waste in landfills and the management of sewage; Land
Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – the net effect of removals of carbon dioxide by growing plants and emissions from deforestation for cropping and grazing purposes
Source: Department of Climate Change (2008)
Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia (Mt CO2-e)
Table 1.1: Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia (Mt CO2-e)
andrevegetationinthestate.Thissectorwentfrombeingasourceof1.6MtofCO2-ein1990tobeingasinkof4.1Mtin2006(AGEIS,2008).Thisreversalofmorethan5Mthasheldthestate’snetemissionsrelativelystabledespitegrowthinemissionsinalmosteveryothersector.
Anotherareathathasshownimprovement,althoughonlyaminorcontributoroverallistheemissionsfromthedecompositionofSolidandLiquidwastes.A35%improvementhasoccurredas a result of less waste going to landfill, particularlyorganics,andimprovedcaptureofmethaneforventingorpowergeneration.
Analysingtheemissionsinventorybyend-usershowsstrongupwardstrendsineachoftheresidential,commercialandindustrialsectorsasillustratedinTable1.2.
PRESSURE INDICATOR: Gross State Product per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia
Thisindicatorrepresentstheeconomicvaluederivedfromatonneofgreenhousegasemissionsforthestateandshowsanincreasesince1990.Thisfollowsageneraltrendwithindevelopedeconomiesthroughthelatterpartofthe20th century reflecting increased energy
efficiency and growth in their services sectors.However,economicdevelopmentthatfavoursenergyintensiveindustriessuchasminingandmineralsprocessing,will influence this trend in South Australia in thefuture.Therearesuggestionsinotherdevelopedeconomiesthatthismaybehappeningthereaswell(seeRaupach et al.2007).Inthefaceofanexpectedminingboom,thisissueneedsthoroughconsiderationwhenregulatingminingoperationsifthestateisgoingtoeffectivelyreduceitsenvironmentalimpact.
PRESSURE INDICATOR: Net greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia indexed against population
Netoverallgreenhousegasemissionsperpersonhaveshownasmallincreasesince1990.However,afocusontheresidentialsectorrevealsamorepronouncedupwardtrend.Theaspirationtoraisethestate’spopulationtotwomillionpeopleby 2050 increases the pressure reflected bythisindicator.Ithighlightscompetingprioritiesandthetaskaheadtostabiliseandthenreduceemissions.Achievingthetargetofa30%reductioninthestate’secologicalfootprintwithapopulationoftwomillionpeoplewouldrequireapercapitareductioninexcessof50%.
A Challenge for all South AustraliansTheSouthAustralianStrategicPlanhassettargetsoftwomillionresidentsinSouthAustraliaplusreducinggreenhousegasemissionsforthestateby60%(basedon1990levels)by2050.
TheresidentialsectorisakeydriverofSouthAustraliangreenhousegasemissions.Althoughthepopulationincreasedby9.4%from1990to2006,residentialemissionsincreasedbya28%duringthisperiod.Thatmadeupaquarterofthestate’stotalnetemissionsin2006.
ThechallengeforSouthAustraliaistoaccommodateanestimatedadditional390,000householdsby2050whilesimultaneouslymorethanhalving1990greenhousegasemissionlevels.
Climate Change
34 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
Greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia, by end-use sector (Mt CO2-e)
1990 2006 % Change
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 7.7 2.0 -74%
Mining 5.1 4.9 -4%
Manufacturing & Construction 7.6 8.0 + 5%
Utilities 1.8 2.2 + 25%
Commercial 2.7 3.4 + 26%
Transport and Storage Industry 2.5 3.0 + 21%
Residential 6.1 7.7 + 28%
TOTAL (inc. LULUCF) 33.3 31.2 -7%
TOTAL (exc. LULUCF) 31.7 35.3 + 11%
Source: Department of Climate Change (2008)
Annual greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia indexed against GSP
CO2-e Excluding LULUCF Including LULUCF
1990 2006 Change 1990 2006 Change
SA 1410 1846 31% 1342 2091 56%
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS Cat. No. 5220.0), Australian Greenhouse Office State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2006 and the Essential Services Commission of South Australia
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS Cat. No. 3101.4), Australian Greenhouse Office State and Territory Greenhouse GasInventories 2006 and the Essential Services Commission of South Australia
Total annual greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes) in South Australia per capita
Excluding LULUCF Including LULUCF
1990 2006 Change 1990 2005 Change
SA 22.3 22.6 1.7% 23 20 -14.6%
Table 1.2: Greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia, by end-use sector (Mt CO2-e)
Table 1.3: Annual greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia indexed against GSP
Table 1.4: Total annual greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes) in South Australia per capita
Figure 1.17: Annual greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia indexed against GSP
Figure 1.18: Total annual greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes) in South Australia per capita
$-
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Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS Cat. No. 3101.4 and 5220.0),
Australian Greenhouse Office State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2006
and the Essential Services Commission of South Australia
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Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS Cat. No. 3101.4 and 5220.0),
Australian Greenhouse Office State and Territory Greenhouse Gas
Inventories 2006 and the Essential Services Commission
of South Australia
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Thegreenhouseandclimatechangeissuehasdramaticallyincreasedinprominenceforthecommunity,businessandgovernmentssincethe2003 State of the Environment report.
In2004,South Australia’s Strategic Plansetatargetforachievingthestate’sKyotoTargetof108%of1990levelsby2012.Inthe2007updateofthePlan,thiswasextendedtoincludealong-termtargetofreducingemissionsto60%below1990levelsby2050.
In2007thestategovernmentreleasedTackling Climate Change, SA’s Greenhouse Strategy 2007-2020, aframeworkfor
respondingtoadverseclimatechangeinacomprehensiveandcoordinatedmanner. This Strategy sets out specific goals,objectivesandtargets,alongwiththemeansofachievingthem.
Importantly,StateParliamentalsopassed Australia’s first climate change legislationin2007.The Climate Change and Greenhouse Emissions Reduction Act 2007 containsacommitmenttothe2050targetaswellasrenewableenergytargetsfor2014.Amongstotherthings,theActcommitsthegovernmenttoeffectivelymeasuring,managingandreportingtoparliamentonboththestate’sandthegovernment’sgreenhousegasemissionseverytwoyears,aswellasrequiringtheestablishmentofaClimateChangeCounciltoadviseonclimatechangeissues.
What are we doing about it?
35S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
EmissionstradingAcapandtradeemissionstradingschemeisamarket-basedmechanismforreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Acapandtradeemissionstradingschemeovercomestheexternalitiesthatarisewhendecisionsbycompaniesandindividualsdonotincludethecostofgreenhousegasemissionstothebroadereconomy.Itdoesthisbyexplicitlyplacingapriceongreenhouseemissions.
Thepricesignalisgeneratedbecausethecapandtradeschemeplacesalimitontheamountofcarbondioxideequivalentemissionsthatcanbereleased.Fixingsupplybelowabusinessasusualamountcreatesscarcity,whichdrivespricedevelopment.
The cap is set in part according to the scientific evidence regarding the level of cumulativeemissionsintheatmosphereandthepotentialforrelatedclimatechange.Otherobjectives,suchasinternationalcommitments,economicadjustment and the need for an emissions profile to adjust over time may influence thesettingofthecapinanyoneyear.
Oncethecapisestablished,permitsareissued(orauctioned)uptothelevelofthe cap. Each year, firms need to monitor and report their total emissions and acquitpermitsagainsttheseemissions.Firmscanbuypermitsasrequired,ortheycanchoosetoabateinordertoreducetheirpermitliability.Thetradingofpermitsmeans that the lowest cost abatement occurs first, because those who can abate cheaplydoso,whilethosewhocan’tpurchasemorepermits.
Thepricesignalcreatedbytheemissionstradingschemeencouragesamoreefficient use of energy and other greenhouse intensive products. In addition, some capandtradesystemsalsoallowtheuseofcarbonoffsetsfromcarbonsinks,suchasfromplantingtrees,whichgeneratesnewsindustries.
FurtherinformationabouttheproposedAustralianemissionstradingschemecanbefoundatwww.climatechange.gov.au/emissionstrading/about.html.
ATMOSPHERE
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS Cat. No. 3101.4), Australian Greenhouse Office State and Territory Greenhouse GasInventories 2006 and the Essential Services Commission of South Australia
Residential annual greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes) in South Australia per capita (energy use & transport)
1990 2006 Change
SA 4.2 5.0 17.0%
Table 1.2: Greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia, by end-use sector (Mt CO2-e)
Table 1.3: Annual greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia indexed against GSP
Table 1.5: Residential annual greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes) in South Australia per capita (energy use and transport)
Figure 1.19: Residential annual greenhouse gas emissions (tonnes) in South Australia per capita (energy use and transport)
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS Cat. No. 3101.4 and
5220.0), Australian Greenhouse Office State and Territory Green-house Gas Inventories 2006 and
the Essential Services Commission of South Australia
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Inordertosatisfythesereportingobligations,SouthAustraliaisdevelopingitsownsetofannualgreenhouseaccounts.Atanationallevel,DCCsubmitsAustralianannualestimatesofgreenhousegasemissionstotheUNFCCCtomeetinternationalreportingrequirements.
TheUNFCCCreportingrulesdon’taccommodatesub-nationalgovernmentssoSouthAustraliaisdevelopingasetofaccountsthatconformstointernationalguidelinesandAustralianmethodologies,incorporatingstate-specific circumstances such as electricity flows across interconnectors.
Developingastate-basedemissionsinventoryisanextensivetask,particularly
Climate Change
fortheagricultureandlandusesectors,where quantification is based on detailedestimationprocessesratherthanactualmeasurement.SouthAustraliaisworkingwiththeDCCthroughtheNationalGreenhouseGasInventory (NGGI) Committee to refine a rangeoffactorsandmethods.
Atanationallevel,anemissionscapandtradingschemeareplannedtobeoperationalwellbeforetheendofthefirst Kyoto commitment period, i.e. prior to2012.TheEnergy chapteroutlinesthegrowthinrenewablefuelsinSouthAustraliaandtheexpectedincreasingtrends,andalsoprovidesinformationonincentivesinplacetopromotetheiruse.
36 S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
ATMOSPHERE
AustralianGovernmentDepartmentofClimateChange,Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (AGEIS),2008www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/index.html
AustralianNationalUniversity,Australian Dictionary of Biography,OnlineEdition,ANU,Canberrawww.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A040316b.htm
Basic Information on Greenhouse and Related Gases,excerptedfromtheWMOWDCGGDataSummary(WMOWDCGGNo.30)(March2006)WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO),GlobalAtmosphereWatch,WorldDataCentreforGreenhouseGasesgaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg/gas.html,accessed19/7/7.
BureauofMeteorologywww.bom.gov.au/weather/sa/inside/history/#_goyder
Canadell,J.G.,LeQuéré,C.,Raupach,M.R.,Field,C.B.,Buitehuis,E.T.,Ciais,P.,Conway,T.J.,Gillett,N.P.,Houghton,R.A.andMarland,G.(2007).Contributions to accelerating
atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity and efficiency of natural sinks. ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUnitedStatesofAmericawww.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0702737104.
ClimateAdaptationScienceandPolicyInitiative(2007),Evidence of Accelerated Climate Change,UniversityofMelbournefortheClimateInstitute,Sydney.
CSIROMarineandAtmosphericResearch(2006),Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions,CSIRO,Melbourne.
CSIROMarineandAtmosphericResearch(2006),Climate change under enhanced greenhouse conditions in South Australia. An updated report on: Assessment of climate change, impacts and risk management strategies relevant to South Australia,CSIRO,Melbourne
CSIRO/BoM(2007).Climate Change in Australia.CSIROandAustralianBureauofMeteorology.TechnicalReport,ISBN97819211232930.www.climatechangein-australia.gov.au
References
Low water levels, Hindmarsh Island, Goolwa, 2007. Photo: Tim Goldsmith
Bushfire on Kangaroo Island 2007. Photo: DEH
What more should we be doing?TheEnvironmentProtectionAuthorityrecommendsthefollowing:
R1.2 Developadaptationstrategiesbasedonassessedvulnerabilityandopportunitiesunderdifferentclimatechangeandpopulationscenariosfor:
•Humanhealth•Watersecurity •Biodiversityandnaturalresources
•Assetprotection,infrastructureandemergencyservices,especiallyin relation to fire and sea level rise.
R1.3 Promotepublicdiscussionandunderstandingofthepossibleconsequencesofclimatechange,withanemphasisonwhatSouthAustralianscandotoreducetheiremissionsandadapttoclimatechange.
R1.4 Fast-track procurement of low emission vehicles for the government fleet (including smallervehicleswhereappropriate).
R1.5 Developandusemeasuresofgreenhousegasintensityasameanstoevaluatethesustainabilityofgovernmentpoliciesby2012.
R1.6 Progressworkonthe‘developmental’SouthAustralia’sStrategicPlantargetforadaptationtoclimatechangewithaviewtoincorporatingitintothe2010updateofthePlan.
Alignment of Recommendations with South Australia’s Strategic Plan targets
ForfurtherdetailonSouthAustralia’sStrategic Plan visit www.stateplan.sa.gov.au
R1.2 R1.3 R1.4 R1.5 R1.6
Growing Prosperity T1.1, T1.14, T1.22 T1.1, T1.14, T1.22 T1.1, T1.14, T1.22
Improving Wellbeing T2.4 T2.4 T2.4
Attaining Sustainability T3.5, T3.9, T3.12 T3.5, T3.9, T3.12 T3.5, T3.6, T3.7 T3.5, T3.9, T3.12 T3.5
Fostering Creativity and Innovation
Building Communities T5.9 T5.9 T5.9
Expanding Opportunities
37S TAT E O F T H E E N V I R O N M E N T R E P O RT 2 0 0 8
www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/news/new_sci_climate.pdf
NationalSnowandIceDataCentre,BoulderColorado2008,‘Permafrost Threatened by Rapid Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice,NCAR/NSIDCStudyFinds’http://nsidc.org/news/press/20080610_Slater.html
PopulationProjectionsforSouthAustralia(200131)andtheState’sStatisticalDivisions(200121),(Aug2007)dataserver.planning.sa.gov.au/publications/1173p.pdf
Pounds,J.A.,Bustamante,M.R.,Coloma,L.A.,Consuegra,J.A.,Fogden,M.P.L.,Foster,P.N.,LaMarca,E.,Masters,K.L.,Merino-Viteri,A.,Puschendorf,R.,Ron,S.R.,Sanchez-Azofeifa,G.A.,Still,C.J.&Young,B.E.(2006)Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature,439,161-167.
Raupach,M.R.Marland,G.,Ciais,P.,LeQuéré,C.,Canadell,J.G.Klepper,G.andField,C.B.(2007).Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica104(24),10,288-10,293.
Scoping Study to Investigate Measures for Improving the Environmental Sustainability of Building Materials.DepartmentoftheEnvironmentandHeritage.(December2006)GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.www.greenhouse.gov.au/buildings/publications/building-materials.html
Tackling Climate Change South Australia’s Greenhouse Strategy 2007-2020.(2007)DepartmentofthePremierandCabinet,GovernmentofSouthAustralia,Adelaide.
UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgram(2007),GlobalEnvironmentOutlook:environmentfordevelopment(GEO4),UNEP,Nairobi,Kenya.
South Australian Government www.climatechange.sa.gov.au www.sustainableliving.sa.gov.au
Australian Government Department of Climate Change www.climatechange.gov.au
Climate Change in Australia (CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology) www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change www.ipcc.ch/
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change www.unfccc.int/
CSIROMarineandAtmosphericResearchandCapeGrimBaselineAirPollutionStation/AustralianBureauofMeteorology.TheCapeGrimBaselineAirPollutionStationisoperatedandmanagedbytheAustralianBureauofMeteorology,withthescienceprogrambeingjointlymanagedwithCSIROMarineandAtmosphericResearch.
Hennessy,K,Fitzharris,B,Bates,B,Harvey,N,Hughes,L,Howden,M,Salinger,J,andWarwick,R(2007),Australia and New Zealand Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change, MLParry,OFCanziani,JPPalutikof,PJvanderLindenandCDHansen,Eds,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UK(pp507-540)
Howden,M.andHayman,P.(2007),Original climate benchmark makes a comeback,CSIRO,Canberrawww.csiro.au/news/GoydersLineMoving.html
Howden,M.andHayman,P.(2005),Will climate change affect the distribution of cropping in Australia? A case study using Goyder’s line. CSIRO,Canberragreenhouse2005.com/downloads/program/GH2005_Presentation_200511161600_3.ppt
HughesL(2003),Climate Change and Australia: Trends, projections and impacts, Austral Ecology,28,423-443.
IPCC(2007),Contribution of Working Group lll to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change,CambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork.
IPCC[Corewritingteam,Pachauri,R.KandReisinger,A.(eds.)].(2007), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.IPCC,Geneva,104pp.
IPCC(2007),Contribution of Working Group l to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, The Physical Science Basis.CambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork.
IPCC(2007), Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, CambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork
Met Office Hadley Centre (2007), New science for managing climate risks,MetOffice, United Kingdom, Exeter
FeedbackeffectsEarth’sclimateiscomplexwithfeedbackmechanismsbeyondhumancontrolthatacceleratewarmingonceitstarts.
Positivefeedbacksinclude:
• increasedwatervapour(apotentgreenhousegas),inawarmeratmosphere,
• reduced reflective ability and therefore,increasedabsorptionofthesun’sheatwiththelossoficeandsnow
• thereleaseofmethanefrommeltingpermafrost;and
• thereleaseofcarbonfromecosystemsduetochangingclimaticconditions.
(UNEP,2007).
Further information
Cl imate Change