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Atlantic Basin LNG Diverse Drivers that Require Diversified Marketing. 06 June 2006 23 rd World Gas Conference. Atlantic Basin LNG Market Definition Growth in Demand Growth in Regasification Facilities. Atlantic Basin Region. Atlantic Basin. LNG Exporting. LNG Importing. 33%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Atlantic Basin LNG
Diverse Drivers that Require Diversified Marketing
06 June 2006
23rd World Gas Conference
Atlantic Basin LNG Market
Definition
Growth in Demand
Growth in Regasification Facilities
Atlantic Basin
LNG Exporting
LNG Importing
Atlantic Basin Region
Atlantic Basin LNG Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
mtp
a
Global Demand
AB Demand
27% 25%
26%24%24%
22%23%23%26%27%27%28%28%26%
26%
33%33%
30%29%29%
22%
33%
NA Regas Facilities Development
Regas Facility Announced in 2004 & 2005
European Regas Facilities Development
Regasification Terminal Announced in 2004 / 2005
Dominate Market Drivers
Price
Weather
Scheduling
Shipbuilding
Sourcing Constraints
Suppliers Seeking Global Market Diversity
HH Prices : Historical & Forward
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Jan
-98
Ju
l-98
Jan
-99
Ju
l-99
Jan
-00
Ju
l-00
Jan
-01
Ju
l-01
Jan
-02
Ju
l-02
Jan
-03
Ju
l-03
Jan
-04
Ju
l-04
Jan
-05
Ju
l-05
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
$/m
mb
tu
Historicals Forwards
Forwards: 05 Jan 2006
Brent Prices : Historical & Forward
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
$/b
bl
Historicals Forwards
Forwards: 16 Dec 2005
2005 Hurricane Season
Spanish Inland Rainfall (Oct – Sept)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
mm
Example of Liquifaction Plant Build-Up
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Initial 3 6 9 12 15
Months
% A
nn
ual
Co
ntr
act
Qu
anti
ty
LNG Fleet : Actual and Projected (with no scrapping)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Nu
mb
er
of
Ve
ss
els
Expected Deliveries
Current Vessels
147k CBM LNG New-Building Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
$U
S M
illio
n
Qatar Diversifying their Markets
Qatar Japan
UKSpain
LNG plant
Regas terminal
Korea
Italy
USECGOM
Belgium
India
Success Factors in the Atlantic Basin LNG Market
Access to Premium North American Gas Markets
Foundation of High-Volume Markets
Diversified Atlantic Basin LNG Supply
Flexibility During LNG Project Life Cycle
Leveraging LNG with Pipeline Supply
Everett, MA
Lake Charles, LA
Cove Pt, MD
Elba Island
Henry Hub Pricing
NA Premium and High-Volume Markets
Premium markets
High-Volume markets
Altamira
European Markets
SaguntoRovigo
Brindisi
Bilbao
Milford Haven I
Isle of Grain
Milford Haven II
Sines
Livorno
Zeebrugge
Huelva
Cartagena
Montoir
Panigaglia
Le VerdonEl Ferrol
Barcelona
Fos
Revithoussa
Marmara
Fos XOM
Priolo
Fos Cavou
Zeebrugge
Rotterdam Eemshaven
PGNiG
Existing/operational
Under Construction
Planned
Shell Capacity/Planned
WilhelmshavenDragon LNG
Isle of Grain Expansion 1 & 2
Rosignano
Canvey Island
High-Volume markets
?
Shell’s Diversified LNG Supply
Baja Capacity: 7.5
Elba Island Capacity: 3.1
Cove Point Capacity: 5.4
NLNG Trains 1-6 Capacity: 21.75
ESBI Tolling
Brunei Capacity: 7.2
Altamira Capacity: 3.6 MLNG
Capacity: 14.6Hazira Capacity: 2.5
North West Shelf 1-5 Capacity: 16.3
Qatargas IV Capacity: 7.8
Oman/Qalhat Capacity: 10.3
Sakhalin Capacity: 9.6
All Figures are in mtpa
LNG Plant
Regas Terminal
Shell’s Atlantic Basin Gas Market Presence
Shell Market
Shell Regas Facility
Back-Up Slides
Spanish Mainland Water Reserves
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Year
hm
3
Receiving Terminals
Existing
Planned
Everett
Elba Island
Cove Point
Nigeria
Altamira
Nigeria Diversifying their Markets
SpainPortugal
France
Turkey
USEC
Mexico
GOM