Upload
others
View
13
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Competitive Dynamics of the China-Europe Aviation Market
Dr Zheng Lei
Institute for Aviation Research (UK)
Agenda
Overview of the China-Europe Aviation Market
Analysis of the Connecting Market
Main players in the China-Europe Aviation Market
Overview of the China-Europe Aviation Market
Developments of monthly frequency and monthly seats in the China-EU market
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Monthly Frequency
CN 中国承运人 EU 欧洲承运人
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
万座位数
Monthly Seats
CN 中国承运人 EU 欧洲承运人
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Monthly Frequency
CN 中国承运人 EU 欧洲承运人
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Monthly Seats 月座位数比例
CN 中国承运人 EU 欧洲承运人
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR anlysis based on OAG database (July, each year)
Rapid Growing Market: Dynamics and Opportunities
Number of Routes Connecting China-Europe
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR anlysis based on OAG database (July, each year)
3035
3034
4045 47
50
59
6976
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Major Changes started from 2014
Number of Routes Operating by China or EU Carriers
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR anlysis based on OAG database (July, each year)
18 19 1721
26 2629
3238
50
59
2428
23 24 2632 31 32
35 37 37
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017by CN Carriers by EU Carriers
New Routes Driven by Chinese Carriers
– Origins: Beijing (17), Shanghai (7), Guangzhou (4) , Changsha (1), Chengdu (1), Urumqi (1), Xi’an(1)
– Destination: Moscow (5), Frankfurt (4), Paris (3), Heathrow (3), AMS (2), Rome (2), Milan (2), Munich (2), Stockholm, Brussels, St Petersburg, Vienna, Düsseldorf, Berlin, Geneva, Madrid, Gatwick (1)
Source: IAR analysis
China-Europe Routes
operated by Chinese Airlines in 2014: 32 Routes
– Origin: Beijing (21), Shanghai (12), Guangzhou (4), Chengdu (3), Xi’an(3), Kunming(2), Urumqi(2), Wuhan (2), Changsha, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Tianjin, Xiamen (1)
– Destination: Moscow (11), Paris (6), Frankfurt (5), Rome (5), AMS (4), St Petersburg (3), Heathrow (3), Madrid (3), Prague (3), Milan (2), Munich (2), Stockholm, Brussels, Manchester, Berlin, Vienna, Minsk, Warsaw, Dusseldorf, Zurich, Barcelona, Geneva, Gatwick (1)
China-Europe Routes
operated by Chinese Airlines in 2017: 59 Routes
Huge Opportunities for European Airports
Source: IAR analysis
Air China (6):
• Beijing - Minsk / Warsaw /Zurich
• Chengdu - Paris
• Shanghai – Barcelona
• Shenzhen – Frankfurt
(drop Beijing – Gatwick)
China Eastern (5):
• Shanghai – Amsterdam / Madrid / Prague / St Petersburg
• Kunming – Paris
China Southern (3):
• Urumqi – St Petersburg
• Wuhan – Moscow / Rome
Xiamen Airlines (1):
• Xiamen – Amsterdam
New Routes Opened by Chinese Airlines:2017 vs 2014
Hainan Airlines (5):
• Beijing – Manchester / Prague
• Xi’an – Rome / Paris
• Chongqing – Rome
Tianjin Airlines (3):
• Chongqing – Gatwick / Moscow
• Tianjin - Moscow
Beijing Capital Airlines (2):
• Chengdu – Madrid
• Qingdao – Moscow
Lucky Air (1):
• Kunming – Moscow
Sichuan Airlines (2):
• Chengdu – Moscow/ Prague
Source: IAR analysis
Europe-China Routes Operated
by European Airlines in 2014:32 Routes
– Origin: Amsterdam (5), Paris (4), Frankfurt (4), Moscow (4), Heathrow (3), Helsinki (4), Munich (2), Zurich (2), Copenhagen (2), Vienna, Warsaw (1)
– Destination: Beijing (12), Shanghai (9), Guangzhou (2) , Chengdu (2), Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xiamen, Xi’an, Shenyang, Nanjing (1)
Source: IAR analysis
Europe-China Routes Operated
by European Airlines in 2017: 37 Routes
– Origin: Amsterdam (5), Paris (4), Frankfurt (4), Moscow (4), Heathrow (2), Helsinki (5), Munich (2), Zurich (2), Copenhagen (2), Vienna (2), Kiev, Rome, Madrid, Milan, Warsaw (1)
– Destination: Beijing (13), Shanghai (11), Guangzhou (3) , Nanjing (2), Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xiamen, Xi’an, Qingdao, Urumqi
European airlines are cautious in opening up new routes
Source: IAR analysis
Lufthansa:
• Frankfurt – Qingdao (drop Shenyang)
Finnair:
• Helsinki - Guangzhou
BA: Drop Heathrow - Chengdu
Austrian Airlines:
• Vienna - Shanghai
Ukraine:
• Kiev – Beijing
Alitalia:
• Rome – Beijing
New Routes Opened by European Airlines:2017 vs 2014
Iberia:
• Madrid - Shanghai
Neos Air:
• Milan – Nanjing
Siberia:
• Moscow - Urumqi
Transaero: Drop Moscow - Beijing
Source: IAR analysis
2017 TOP 10 Routes in the China-Europe Market
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8; Source: IAR analysis based on OAG data (July, each year)
Rank Name Code Market Share Carrier 1 Carrier 2 Carrier 3 M/S 1 M/S 2 M/S 3
1 Shanghai-Paris PVG-CDG 6.52% Air France China Eastern Air China 3.14% 2.58% 0.81%
2 Beijing-Moscow PEK-SVO 6.46% Aeroflot Air China Hainan Airlines 4.03% 1.28% 1.14%
3 Shanghai-Frankfurt PVG-FRA 5.66% Lufthansa Air China China Eastern 3.62% 1.08% 0.95%
4 Beijing-Paris PEK-CDG 5.17% Air France Air China - 2.88% 2.29% -
5 Shanghai-Moscow PVG-SVO 4.84% Aeroflot China Eastern - 3.31% 1.53% -
6 Beijing-Frankfurt PEK-FRA 4.77% Air China Lufthansa - 2.68% 2.10% -
7 Beijing-Heathrow PEK-LHR 3.91% Air China British Airways - 2.69% 1.22% -
8 Shanghai-Heathrow PVG-LHR 3.68% British Airways China Eastern Virgin Atlantic 1.30% 1.29% 1.09%
9 Shanghai-Amsterdam PVG-AMS 2.77% KLM China Eastern - 2.22% 0.55% -
10 Beijing-Amsterdam PEK-AMS 2.47% KLM China Southern - 1.30% 1.17% -
But European Carriers have more advantage on trunk routes
2017 Bottom 10 Routes in the China-Europe Market
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR analysis based on OAG data (July, each year)
Rank Name Code Market Share Carrier
67 Urumqi-Moscow URC-SVO 0.39% China Southern Airlines
68 Changsha-Frankfurt CSX-FRA 0.38% China Southern Airlines
69 Nanjing-Milan NKG-MXP 0.34% Neos Air
70 Chongqing-Gatwick CKG-LGW 0.30% TianJin Airlines
71 Tianjin-Moscow TSN-SVO 0.30% TianJin Airlines
72 Chongqing-Moscow CKG-SVO 0.30% TianJin Airlines
73 Chengdu-Prague CTU-PRG 0.29% Sichuan Airlines
74Urumqi-Moscow
DomodedovoURC-DME 0.27% Siberia Airlines
75 Chengdu-Madrid CTU-MAD 0.25% Beijing Capital Airlines
76 Chongqing-Rome CKG-FCO 0.23% Hainan Airlines
New markets: dynamic but some uncertainty
Historical opportunities to shape these dynamic markets
Main Airports in the China-Europe Market
2007 Rank 2017
27% Beijing 1 Beijing 22%
19% Shanghai Pudong 2 Shanghai Pudong 17%
11% Frankfurt 3 Moscow 8%
9% Paris 4 Paris 8%
6% Heathrow 5 Frankfurt 7%
5% Amsterdam 6 Heathrow 5%
4% Moscow 7 Amsterdam 4%
3% Guangzhou 8 Guangzhou 4%
3% Mucich 9 Helsinki 2%
3% Helsinki 10 Mucich 2%
90% 78%
Source: IAR analysis
Analysis of Connecting Market
Source: IAR analysis based on PaxIS data
Traffic diversion in the China – EU market
1.434.992
2.396.863
1.565.629
3.137.106
2007 2016
Direct Pax 直飞旅客 Transfer Pax 中转旅客
2007Direct
Pax 直飞
旅客
48%
Transfer
Pax 中转
旅客
52%
2007
Direct
Pax 直
飞旅客
43%
Transfer
Pax 中转
旅客
57%
2016
Source: IAR analysis based on PaxIS data
Traffic diversion in the China – EU market
48%
42%
5%3%
2%
2007
Direct Pax 直飞旅客
EU Transfer Pax 欧洲中转
CN Transfer Pax 中国中转
ME Transfer Pax 中东中转
Other Transfer Pax 其他中转
43%
29%
14%
10%4%
2016
Direct Pax 直飞旅客
EU Transfer Pax 欧洲中转
CN Transfer Pax 中国中转
ME Transfer Pax 中东中转
Other Transfer Pax 其他中转
84% 100%
542%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
-
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
Total 总旅客量 Transfer Pax 中
转旅客
ME Transfer Pax
中东中转旅客
2007 2016 增长率
Strong competition from the Middle East
Shifting Power in Transit Hubs
Source: IAR analysis based on PaxIS data
2007 2016
Rank Airport Transfer PaxShare of
Transfer PaxAirport
Transfer Pax
Share of Transfer Pax
1 FRA : Frankfurt 369452 23.6% PEK : Beijing 437566 13.9%
2 CDG : Paris 187508 12.0% FRA : Frankfurt 302550 9.6%
3 AMS : Amsterdam 152952 9.8% SVO : Moscow 260578 8.3%
4 HEL : Helsinki 135965 8.7% DXB : Dubai 218727 7.0%
5 MUC : Munich 135889 8.7% AMS : Amsterdam 216484 6.9%
6 PEK : Beijing 98004 6.3% CDG : Paris 190185 6.1%
7 SVO : Moscow 68157 4.4% PVG : Shanghai 165800 5.3%
8 DXB : Dubai, AE 62607 4.0% HEL : Helsinki 150792 4.8%
9 LHR : Heathrow 42646 2.7% HKG : Hong Kong 149328 4.8%
10 PVG : Shanghai 36420 2.3% IST : Istanbul 144366 4.6%
11 VIE : Vienna 36060 2.3% DOH : Doha 132048 4.2%
12 CPH : Copenhagen 32691 2.1% MUC : Munich 103913 3.3%
13 HKG : Hong Kong 28678 1.8% CAN : Guangzhou 64889 2.1%
14 MXP : Milan 26830 1.7% AUH : Abu Dhabi 62340 2.0%
15 IST : Istanbul 15765 1.0% ZRH : Zurich 58035 1.8%
Comparison of Average Fare (USD) of China-Europe Market
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ιαν
20
15
Φεβ
20
15
Μα
ρ 2
01
5
Απ
ρ 2
01
5
Μα
ϊ 20
15
Ιου
ν 2
01
5
Ιου
λ 2
01
5
Αυ
γ 2
01
5
Σεπ
20
15
Οκτ
20
15
Νο
ε 2
01
5
Δεκ
20
15
Ιαν
20
16
Φεβ
20
16
Μα
ρ 2
01
6
Απ
ρ 2
01
6
Μα
ϊ 20
16
Ιου
ν 2
01
6
Ιου
λ 2
01
6
Αυ
γ 2
01
6
Σεπ
20
16
Οκτ
20
16
Νο
ε 2
01
6
Δεκ
20
16
Ιαν
20
17
Φεβ
20
17
Μα
ρ 2
01
7
Απ
ρ 2
01
7
EU Big 3 CN Big 3 Emirates Hainan Market Average
Source: IAR analysis based on PaxIS data
Route Network of Emirates
Hub configuration for Emirates at Dubai
Source: IAR analysis based on OAG database
Source: IAR Analysis based on Ascend Fleet Data
Source: IATA WATS 2016
Main Players
Main Players in the China-Europe Origin-Destination Market (2016)
Rank Airlines Pax Carried Share
1 Air China 2,041,552 18.4%
2 Lufthansa 1,040,721 9.4%
3 Aeroflot 871,193 7.9%
4 China Eastern 809,540 7.3%
5 Air France 800,107 7.2%
6 KLM 666,567 6.0%
7 China Southern 652,014 5.9%
8 Hainan Airlines 584,414 5.3%
9 Emirates 454,651 4.1%
10 Finnair 423,995 3.8%
Source: IAR analysis based on 2016 annual two-way passenger data form IATA PaxIS
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR analysis based on OAG data (July, each year)
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5
7
9
12
14
12
12 1
3 14
12
12
14
14
16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
中国航空公司 CN Carriers 欧洲航空公司 EU Carriers
2015 New EntryCN: Sichuan Airlines EU: Ukraine Airlines
Alitalia
2016CN: Tianjin Airlines
Xiamen Airlines EU: Iberia
2017CN: Capital Airlines
Lucky AirEU: Neos Air
Siberia Airlines
New Comers to China-Europe Market
Share of Passengers in the China-Europe Market
China66%
Europe34%
Centre of Gravity moves to China
Source: IAR analysis based on 2016 annual two-way passenger data form PaxIS
2007 2016
Rank
排名Airport 机场
Pax 旅客人数
Avg Fare
平均票价(美元)
Airport 机场Pax 旅客人数
Avg Fare 平均票价(美元)
1 Paris-De Gaulle 巴黎戴高乐 353552 775 Paris-De Gaulle 巴黎戴高乐 667482 479
2 London-Heathrow 伦敦希斯罗 320688 928 London-Heathrow 伦敦希斯罗 575454 567
3 Frankfurt 法兰克福 234946 734 Moscow 莫斯科 415232 264
4 Amsterdam 阿姆斯特丹 177068 673 Frankfurt 法兰克福 403921 518
5 Moscow 莫斯科 160701 522 Rome-Da Vinci 罗马 252731 348
6 Madrid 马德里 106438 633 Amsterdam 阿姆斯特丹 239388 534
7 Rome-Da Vinci 罗马 96585 612 Madrid 马德里 210404 288
8 Copenhagen 哥本哈根 86046 736 Milan-Malpensa 米兰 177340 511
9 Munich 慕尼黑 81921 888 Munich 慕尼黑 173439 625
10 Barcelona 巴塞罗那 68133 628 Barcelona 巴塞罗那 169442 323
Source: IAR analysis based on PaxIS data
Top 10 European Cities to China:Relatively stable
2007 2016
Rank
排名City 城市
Pax旅客人数
Avg Fare 平均票价(美
元)City 城市
Pax旅客人数
Avg Fare
平均票价(美元)
1 Beijing 北京 1466576 717 Shanghai上海 1938037 515
2 Shanghai上海 1179123 774 Beijing 北京 1826133 523
3 Guangzhou 广州 154550 700 Guangzhou 广州 431922 393
4 Chengdu 成都 38297 630 Chengdu 成都 189600 348
5 Wenzhou 温州 19881 528 Wenzhou 温州 168637 246
6 Uruqi 乌鲁木齐 15583 448 Hangzzhou 杭州 97199 328
7 Shenyang 沈阳 13134 647 Chongqing 重庆 83996 347
8 Sanya 三亚 12659 656 Wuhan 武汉 80222 370
9 Fuzhou 福州 11946 591 Xi'an 西安 69248 361
10 Xiamen 厦门 10065 648 Nanjing 南京 68550 455
Source: IAR analysis based on PaxIS data
Top 10 Chinese Cities to Europe: Changing Market Dynamics
China-Europe Routes Operated by Chinese Airlines
Airlines 2014 2015 2016 2017Air China 18 18 20 23China Southern 10 10 13 12China Eastern 6 7 11 11Hainan Airlines 4 7 7 9total 38 42 51 55
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR analysis based on OAG database (July, each year)
China-Europe Routes Operated by Chinese Airline Group
Airlines 2014 2015 2016 2017
Air China 18 18 20 23
China Southern+Xiamen Airlines 10 10 14 13
China Eastern 6 7 11 11
Hainan Airlines + Capital + Tianjin + Lucky Air 4 7 10 15total 38 42 55 62
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR analysis based on OAG database (July, each year)
HNA: Multi brand strategy
Europe: Most important market for Air China
Source: IAR analysis based on Sabre Market Intelligence
Note: routes with monthly frequency >=8Source: IAR analysis based on OAG database (July, each year)
China-Europe Routes Operated by European Airlines
Airlines 2014 2015 2016 2017
AF+KL 9 9 9 9
Lufthansa 6 6 7 6
Finnair 4 4 5 5
Aeroflot 3 3 3 3
BA+Iberia 3 3 3 3
total 25 25 27 26
Summary
Rapid development of China-Europe aviation market
A number of new city-pairs in both Europe and China have established direct flights
Growth is mainly driven by Chinese airlines
European airlines still maintain advantages on trunk routes
Chinese airlines are more aggressive in opening up new routes
Middle East airports are gaining more market share of transfer passengers in the China-Europe market
Shifting power in transit hubs
The competitive landscape is shaped by airline network & pricing strategy
Emerging carriers & airports
Thank you for your attention!
www.instituteforaviation.orgEmail: [email protected]