At understanding trend

8/9/2019 At understanding trend

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TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 1

Understanding Trends Analyzing Trends Spring 2015


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how would youdefine a trend?what wordscome to mind?


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first tip: always consult a good dictionary words are important to how we frame things


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trendspotting vs.trend analysis

is there adifference?


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trendspotting leads to fadsa skimming the surface to capitalize on culture


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intelligent analysis of culture is thefoundation of trend analysis


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trends are about “why” more than “what”

Culture



the mechanics of culturekey elements for understanding change

language patternstime



past present future

patterns patterns

trends evolve over time

they are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?)



past present future

patterns patterns

trend analysis leverages this dynamic view

they are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?)

not

coolcool

not

cool



analyzing beardswhy have beards trended over the last five years?



analyzing beards over time

does the meaning change? why?

1950 1970 1990 2015

beards


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beards and existential themesanalyzing the state of the human condition


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beards as cultural signifiermen working out concepts of masculinity


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do we drink more coffee todaythan in 1945?


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we actually drank more coffee in1945 (bad coffee…but coffee)


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plus/minuses of tracking by numbers

Google Trends track occurrences of search terms


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language and trendsto understand trends we need a more nuancedunderstanding of language


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past present future

patterns patterns

analyzing coffee over time

what other words become associated with co!ee?

co!ee co!ee co!ee


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analyzing coffee over time

how has the culture of co!ee evolved recently?

rituals symbolsvalues


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patterns emerge as cultural systemssystems that create and propel language


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TIM STOCK SPRING 2015

visualizing culture as a dynamic systemhow meaning migrates through culture

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collective culture


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analytical expressive

c o u n t e r

c ol l e c t i v e

visualizing culture as a dynamic systemhow meaning migrates through culture

symbolestablishing the language

zeitgeistcultural saturation

identity spreading the message

actionwiring the behavior

counter culture

patterns

migration

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visualizing innovationthe di!usion of innovation seeks to structure how ideas evolve

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analyticalexpressive

c o u n t e r

c ol l e c t i v e

innovators

s y m b o l i c

the early innovators

community kinship breeding adoption

a c t i on

influencerstrend conditions give status

i d en t i t y

mass marketeasy to join in z

e i t g e i s t

product innovation as intervention in existingcultural systems of language and meaning


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analyzing kale


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past present future

patterns patterns

analyzing kaletrends don’t appear…. they evolve

kale kalekale


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the cultural system of kale

cultural trends represent reappropriation of existing language



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analyzing the culture of kale

the language of products we consume provide clues



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analytical expressive

c o u n t e r

c ol l e c t i v e

Organic FarmingPolitics

Community Food Co-Ops Diets

LabeledLocalized Chains

New Urbanism

FOOD ZEITGEIST

Mass Retail

FOOD AS BADGE

FOOD AS RITUALFOOD AS SYMBOLpatterns

migration

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the cultural system of organic


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the language within cronuts reveals the real story

analyzing cronuts

past present future

patterns patterns

cronuts ??


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food trucks risingwhat is the language? what does it tell us?



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analyzing fast foodwhat foods do we see emerging in culture? what shapes this?


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past present future

patterns patterns

analyzing fast foodhow does the context shape the meaning of fast food?

fast

food

fast

food

fast

food


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the ideology of fast foodwhy do you think McDonald’s is advertising like this?


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analyzing “the sharing economy"is the “sharing economy” really about just sharing?



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what are the dynamics that make this work in culture?

analyzing “the sharing economy"


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past present future

patterns patterns

what helps “sharing” evolve as a trend?

own rent ?

analyzing “the sharing economy"


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TIM STOCK FALL 2014

the meaning of bicycles was not so clear in 2007

case: cannondale

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TIM STOCK FALL 2014

the category was defined by assumptions of behavior

what is a bicycle?

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COLLECTIVE


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COLLECTIVE

COUNTER

EXPRESSIVE ANALYTIC

culture mapping the behavioralframework for each brand

underwater bikersk bikCOLLECTIVE


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pop culture

sensorial

sub culture

For the Traditionalists ,it’s about privilege and

reinforcement.

For Pop Mavericks, it’s aboutindividuality and instant gratification.

bike activistsbike commuters

bike packers/touringutility bikers

fitness bikers

bike messengersrocket bikers

Bolivia’s Death Roadbikersfixed gear urban bikepirates

marathoncyclists

road racerstrack racers

cyclo-crosserstri-athletes

parkour bikersmountain bikerssnow bikerscliff riders

COUNTER

EXPRESSIVE ANALYTICAL

COLLECTIVE

Realizers

Strivers Freestylers

Fearless

behavioral archetypes give us thesystem of bicycle trends in culture


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the cultures that shape themeaning of bicycles


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StriverCulture

FreestylerCulture

FearlessCulture

RealizerCulture

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perception drives meaning in theinterpretation of everyday things


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anti-vaccination as ideology does the location of these outbreak tell us anything?


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that ideology frames how we consumeraw milk has its roots in concepts of government’s role



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the “how” of food is ideologicalthe emergence of pot politics has broader cultural implications



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politics as ideological patternthe language of debates reflects cultural tensions

patterns


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science fiction and the futuresci-fi is less about a precise framing of the future as it isa struggle to deal with our present state of being


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projecting possible futures2001 A Space Odyssey was released in 1968.


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imagining the shape of progressInterstellar frames artificial intelligence withTARS in a unique way


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imagining the shape of progress


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Futurist designer Jenny Lee has


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the value of privacy in a post-digital worldis this our face in the future?

Futurist designer Jenny Lee has

created a series of "digital skins"

that she imagines might grace our

lowly, animal mugs in the year 2060.


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framing the future of relationshipsWhat does “Her” reveal about our present state?


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how does technology shape relationships?is tech driving the shape of romance and relationships?


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What does “The Hunger Games” reveal about our present state?

framing the future of class


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the growing tension in urban centers

framing the future of class


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our design shapes our futureare we seeing unexpected outcomes from the Highline?


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our design shapes our futureare we seeing unexpected outcomes from the Highline?


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developing a strategy for the future

The Future of_____


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developing a strategy for the future

signals


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brandpeople

innovation is a mating gamewe need to synchronize with cultural signalsand conspire in future stories

signals


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INNOVATION

from signal to story... synchronizing brands forpurpose and sustainability

BRAND ARCHITECTURE

storiessignals

innovation is a mating game


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At understanding trend