At Risk: Roma and the At Risk: Roma and the Displaced in Southeast Displaced in Southeast

EuropeEurope

Andrey Ivanov, Human Development Adviser, UNDPAndrey Ivanov, Human Development Adviser, UNDP

Lead authorLead author

Launch of the UNDP Report “At Risk: Roma and the Displaced in Southeast Launch of the UNDP Report “At Risk: Roma and the Displaced in Southeast Europe: Dimensions of Vulnerability”Europe: Dimensions of Vulnerability”

2626thth June 2006, Brussels June 2006, Brussels

Europe and CIS

OutlineOutline

Why this report?Why this report? The survey and spin-off effectsThe survey and spin-off effects Determinants of vulnerability for Determinants of vulnerability for

RomaRoma Determinants of vulnerability for the Determinants of vulnerability for the

displaceddisplaced Major recommendationsMajor recommendations

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Logical continuation of UNDP work on Logical continuation of UNDP work on vulnerability and Roma in particular vulnerability and Roma in particular

To make MDGs appealing in most To make MDGs appealing in most countries of the region, countries of the region, disaggregation at sub-national level is disaggregation at sub-national level is importantimportant

Relevant profiles of vulnerability in Relevant profiles of vulnerability in the region necessary for adequate the region necessary for adequate programmatic responses programmatic responses

Why this report?Why this report?

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The processThe process

The overall philosophy The overall philosophy – Going beyond national averages Going beyond national averages – Address acute issues within their specific Address acute issues within their specific

context complementing international context complementing international benchmarks with national poverty linesbenchmarks with national poverty lines

The survey and the report as a new The survey and the report as a new challengechallenge– Methodological challengeMethodological challenge– ““Avoiding repetitions” challengeAvoiding repetitions” challenge

Complementarity between regional and Complementarity between regional and national level analysisnational level analysis

Partnerships with the World Bank, Decade Partnerships with the World Bank, Decade of Roma Inclusion, national statisticsof Roma Inclusion, national statistics

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The surveyThe survey

Covers all countries in SEE and CEE with Covers all countries in SEE and CEE with sizeable Roma minoritiessizeable Roma minorities

Representative for Roma population with Representative for Roma population with “close proximity” majority boosters “close proximity” majority boosters

Follows the logic of HBS and LFSFollows the logic of HBS and LFS Sample size – 500-600 households per Sample size – 500-600 households per

country plus boosters (total for country country plus boosters (total for country between 800 and 1000 households)between 800 and 1000 households)

““Status registration” and not “attitudes” Status registration” and not “attitudes” surveysurvey

Where relevant, has IDPs and refugees Where relevant, has IDPs and refugees samplessamples

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The direct outcomesThe direct outcomes

Regional report Regional report on vulnerable groups on vulnerable groups providing overall analytical and data providing overall analytical and data framework complementing the national framework complementing the national sample analysissample analysis

SummarySummary published as a separate published as a separate brochure and translated into few brochure and translated into few national languagesnational languages

A set of A set of national national vulnerability reports vulnerability reports (Albania, Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia)(Albania, Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia)

Data base Data base available on-line and on CD available on-line and on CD with all the data and additional resourceswith all the data and additional resources

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Spin-off effectsSpin-off effects

Baseline profiles for the Baseline profiles for the Decade of Roma Decade of Roma InclusionInclusion

Contribution to national-level work on Contribution to national-level work on ethnically sensitive dataethnically sensitive data

Cross-border HDR for Hungary and Cross-border HDR for Hungary and Slovakia focusing on vulnerable groups in Slovakia focusing on vulnerable groups in the new EU contextthe new EU context

Expanding the approach to People living Expanding the approach to People living with HIV/AIDS (pilot in Estonia and with HIV/AIDS (pilot in Estonia and Kaliningrad)Kaliningrad)

Roma survey in Moldova (the first in the Roma survey in Moldova (the first in the country)country)

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Novelty of the reportNovelty of the report

Develops in-depth the concept of Develops in-depth the concept of vulnerability detaching it from ethnic vulnerability detaching it from ethnic affiliationaffiliation

Provides rich and in-depth analysis of Provides rich and in-depth analysis of determinants of vulnerability and determinants of vulnerability and their major correlatestheir major correlates

Addresses two vulnerable groups in Addresses two vulnerable groups in two parallel parts of the analysistwo parallel parts of the analysis

Determinants of vulnerability Determinants of vulnerability for Romafor Roma

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Roma povertyRoma poverty

StatusStatus– Half of all Roma live in poverty with more than one in 5 live in extreme Half of all Roma live in poverty with more than one in 5 live in extreme

povertypoverty– Roma poverty is four times higher than poverty among majority neighbors Roma poverty is four times higher than poverty among majority neighbors

(44% vs. 11%)(44% vs. 11%)– Inequality among Roma is higher than for majority households (0.44 vs. Inequality among Roma is higher than for majority households (0.44 vs.

0.40)0.40)– Outstanding debts is vicious circle (outstanding household bills reaching Outstanding debts is vicious circle (outstanding household bills reaching

1230% of household monthly expenditures of poor Roma households) 1230% of household monthly expenditures of poor Roma households) – In Roma 50% of children face nutrition risk more than twice monthly In Roma 50% of children face nutrition risk more than twice monthly

compared to 0nly 6% of children in non-Roma households. compared to 0nly 6% of children in non-Roma households. Correlates of povertyCorrelates of poverty

– Education: Roma and majority heads with no formal education have Education: Roma and majority heads with no formal education have respectively 40% and 69% chance of living out of povertyrespectively 40% and 69% chance of living out of poverty

– Location: poverty lowest in capitals and highest in rural areas – but in rural Location: poverty lowest in capitals and highest in rural areas – but in rural areas the difference between Roma and majority declinesareas the difference between Roma and majority declines

– Employment: correlate between “being in skilled employment” and “living Employment: correlate between “being in skilled employment” and “living in non-poor household” is stronger for majority than for Romain non-poor household” is stronger for majority than for Roma

– The predicted expenditures of hypothetical household with similar The predicted expenditures of hypothetical household with similar characteristics are 254 PPP$ for Roma and 431 PPP$ for majority.characteristics are 254 PPP$ for Roma and 431 PPP$ for majority.

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Poverty rates for RomaPoverty rates for RomaFigure 1-1: Poverty rates for Roma

Percentage of Roma living in households with daily equivalised expendituresbelow PPP $2.15 or PPP $4.30 (with total poverty rates shown above bars)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Ro

ma

Ma

jori

ty

Croatia Bosnia &Herzegovina

MontenegroMacedonia Bulgaria Serbia Kosovo Romania Albania All(unweighted

average)

<PPP$2.15 expenditures per day PPP$2.15 - PPP$4.30 expenditures per day

78

22

10

46

57

27 2734

59

66

25

(%)

1 2 11057

25

45

11

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DebtsDebts

Figure 1-4: Outstanding debtTotal outstanding household bills as a percentage of monthly household expenditures

1230

479393

168

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Roma Majority

Poor Non-poor

(%)

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Nutrition vulnerabilityNutrition vulnerability

Figure 1-42: Nutrition vulnerability Percentage of households in which a member went to bed hungry in the

past month because he or she could not afford food

93

72

18

3

28

3

47

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Roma Majority

Never Once A few times (2-3) Several times (4 or more)

%

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Roma educationRoma education

StatusStatus– 2 out of 3 Roma do not complete primary education compared to 1 2 out of 3 Roma do not complete primary education compared to 1

in 7 of non-Romain 7 of non-Roma– 2 out of 5 do not attend primary school compared to 1 in 20 of 2 out of 5 do not attend primary school compared to 1 in 20 of

majoritymajority– Declining enrolments among Roma begin in elementary and Declining enrolments among Roma begin in elementary and

primary school (43% among 15 year-olds)primary school (43% among 15 year-olds)– Literacy rates among Roma are far below those of majority (73% Literacy rates among Roma are far below those of majority (73%

versus 96%)versus 96%) Correlates of educationCorrelates of education

– Gender: Roma women are particularly vulnerable with three Gender: Roma women are particularly vulnerable with three quarters of Roma women do not complete primary education quarters of Roma women do not complete primary education compared with 1 in 5 women from majority communities and compared with 1 in 5 women from majority communities and almost a third are illiterate almost a third are illiterate

– Positive role models: Strong correlation between the education Positive role models: Strong correlation between the education status of the household head and other members of the householdstatus of the household head and other members of the household

– Segregation: high presence of ‘Roma-only’ and substandard Segregation: high presence of ‘Roma-only’ and substandard ‘mixed’ schools reinforces low education status and limits the ‘mixed’ schools reinforces low education status and limits the quality of educationquality of education

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Enrolment gapEnrolment gapFigure 1-11: Enrolment gap

Percentage of Roma and the majority attending school, college or university

1

76

57

18

75

7

9895

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Elementary (7-11years) Primary (12-15 years) Secondary (16-19 years) Tertiary (>20 years)

Roma Majority

%

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Gender gap in educationGender gap in education

Figure 1-15: Pro-male attainment gap Elementary-, primary- and secondary-school attainment rates for Roma and majority men and women, as well as the percentage difference between the two (the 'pro-male attainment gap')

56

27

5

93

81

56

68

39

10

9891

71

22

102

511

26

47

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

At leastelementary

At least primary At leastsecondary

At leastelementary

At least primary At leastsecondary

Roma Majority

Att

ain

men

t ra

tes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pro

-mal

e at

tain

men

t g

ap

Women Men Pro-male attainment gap (right scale)

% %

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Enrolment and ageEnrolment and age

Figure 1-12: Expanding enrolment gap among young Roma Percentage of Roma and the majority 7-15 years of age attending school

69

81

75 74 73

68

60

52

9599 98 99

96 9795

91

43

97

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

age 7 age 8 age 9 age 10 age 11 age 12 age 13 age 14 age 15

Roma Majority

%

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Roma employmentRoma employment

StatusStatus– Unemployment rates more than twice as high as similarly placed Unemployment rates more than twice as high as similarly placed

colleagues from majority communities in Bulgaria and Croatiacolleagues from majority communities in Bulgaria and Croatia– Low-skilled work predominates dominated by manual laborLow-skilled work predominates dominated by manual labor– Roma involvement in informal sector is on average four times more Roma involvement in informal sector is on average four times more

common than for majoritycommon than for majority

Correlates of employmentCorrelates of employment– Gender: Employment rates of Roma women in some countries are as Gender: Employment rates of Roma women in some countries are as

low as 20% (60% for majority women) low as 20% (60% for majority women) – Age: differences between youth and adult unemployment rates are Age: differences between youth and adult unemployment rates are

much smaller for Roma than for majoritymuch smaller for Roma than for majority– Location: unemployment in urban is higher for both Roma women and Location: unemployment in urban is higher for both Roma women and

men (opposite for majority); unemployment rates lower in mixed, well-men (opposite for majority); unemployment rates lower in mixed, well-integrated neighborhoodsintegrated neighborhoods

– Education: Returns on education lower for Roma than majority – and Education: Returns on education lower for Roma than majority – and particularly lower for Roma womenparticularly lower for Roma women

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Unemployment ratesUnemployment rates

Figure 1-22: Unemployment ratesPercentage of Roma and the majority between 15 and 55 years of age that are unemployed

44 4551 52 53

60 62

71

2825

21

30 32

25 25

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Romania Albania Serbia Bosnia &Herzegovina

Montenegro Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia

%

Roma Majority

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Informal sector involvementInformal sector involvement

Figure 1-25: The informal sectorPercentage of workers employed in the informal sector by country

10 12

28

34

45

58

66

78 79

108

5

9

1713

33

27

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Croatia Montenegro Bulgaria Romania Macedonia Serbia Kosovo Bosnia &Herzegovina

Albania

Roma Majority

(%)

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Returns to educationReturns to education

Figure 1-37: Education and the probability of employmentExpected probabilities of employment for Roma and majority men and women with

each level of education

56 53

27 28

65

55

36 38

7267

5446

8578

48

78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Majority Roma Majority Roma

Men Women

Baseline (less than primary) With primary With secondary With tertiary

(%)

Determinants of vulnerability Determinants of vulnerability for the displacedfor the displaced

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Poverty of the displacedPoverty of the displaced

StatusStatus– Poverty rates higher than majority but gap smaller than in the Poverty rates higher than majority but gap smaller than in the

case of Romacase of Roma– Poverty rates almost double in capital areasPoverty rates almost double in capital areas– 27% of displaced children live in households facing nutrition risk 27% of displaced children live in households facing nutrition risk

(compared to 7% of majority children)(compared to 7% of majority children) Correlates of povertyCorrelates of poverty

– Skills: poverty rates for displaced household with skilled head is Skills: poverty rates for displaced household with skilled head is 5% compared to 21 with non-skilled head (for majority 5% compared to 21 with non-skilled head (for majority respectively 2 and 7%)respectively 2 and 7%)

– Location: poverty highest in capitals – unlike the majority patternLocation: poverty highest in capitals – unlike the majority pattern– Education: displaced and majority heads with no formal education Education: displaced and majority heads with no formal education

have respectively 40% and 19% chance of living in povertyhave respectively 40% and 19% chance of living in poverty– The predicted expenditures of hypothetical household with similar The predicted expenditures of hypothetical household with similar

characteristics are 134% higher for the majority than a household characteristics are 134% higher for the majority than a household with similar characteristics from the displaced samplewith similar characteristics from the displaced sample

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Poverty rates for the displacedPoverty rates for the displaced

Figure 2-2: Poverty rates for the displaced

Percentage of refugees and IDPs living in households with daily equivalised expenditures below PPP $2.15 or PPP $4.30 (with total poverty rates shown above bars)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Maj

ority

IDP

s

Ref

ugee

s

Maj

ority

IDP

s

Ref

ugee

s

Maj

ority

IDP

s

Ref

ugee

s

Maj

ority

IDP

s

Ref

ugee

s

Maj

ority

IDP

s

Ref

ugee

s

All (unweightedaverage)

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Croatia Montenegro Serbia

<PPP $2.15 expenditures per day PPP $2.15 - PPP $4.30 expenditures per day

2 3

7

1

18

8

1

15 16

10

41

30

(%)

4

20

17

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Poverty and skillsPoverty and skills

Figure 2-9: Employment-induced poverty gapsPoverty rates for displaced and majority households with skilled or unskilled heads

21

75

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

Displaced Majority

Semi-skilled or unskilled Skilled

(%)

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Nutrition vulnerabilityNutrition vulnerability

Figure 2-35: Nutrition vulnerability

Percentage of households in which a member went to bed hungry in the past month because he or she could not afford food

6

1

12

22

1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Displaced Majority

Once A few times (2-3) Several times (4 or more)

%

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Education and employment of the Education and employment of the displaceddisplaced

StatusStatus– Clear impact of conflicts on educationClear impact of conflicts on education– Increasing gap in secondary and tertiary levels between Increasing gap in secondary and tertiary levels between

displaced and majoritydisplaced and majority– Unemployment rates higher for the displaced with differences Unemployment rates higher for the displaced with differences

in subjective unemployment rates particularly pronouncedin subjective unemployment rates particularly pronounced– Overrepresented in sectors dominated by manual labor and Overrepresented in sectors dominated by manual labor and

unskilled work; underrepresented in public sector employmentunskilled work; underrepresented in public sector employment Correlates of educationCorrelates of education

– Gender: Displaced women are much less likely to continue Gender: Displaced women are much less likely to continue education after secondary school (51% vs. 70% of the majority education after secondary school (51% vs. 70% of the majority women)women)

– Location: unemployment rates marginally higher in rural areas Location: unemployment rates marginally higher in rural areas for both majority and displacedfor both majority and displaced

– Education: the impact of education on employment is only felt Education: the impact of education on employment is only felt for workers with secondary and tertiary educationfor workers with secondary and tertiary education

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Conflict and educationConflict and education

Figure 2-14: The impact of conflict and displacement on education The percentage of the displaced and majority with at least secondary education by age

6566

71

7776

71

68

72

78

74

71

66

69

91

87 86

8081

92 92

85

90

83

8990

85

93

9091

84

79

73

80

84

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Displaced

Majority

Secondary-school and university age at start of the Croatian and Bosnian conflict (1991)

Secondary-school and university age at start of Kosovo conflict (1997)

%

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Unemployment rates for Unemployment rates for displaceddisplaced

Figure 2-16: Unemployment rates and subjective perceptions of unemployment Percentage of the displaced and majority between 15 and 55 years of age that are unemployed

2125

30

48 49

41

49

2825

41

26

66

5558 58

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Bosnia & Herzegovina Montenegro Croatia Serbia

%

Majority Displaced Majority subjective Displaced subjective

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Returns to educationReturns to education

Figure 2-26: Education and the probability of employmentExpected probabilities of employment for majority and displaced men and women

with each level of education

81

34

8791

76

96

8482

50

61

31

73

46

77

92

69

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

100

Majority Displaced Majority Displaced

Men Women

%

Baseline (less than primary) With primary With secondary With tertiary

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The major messagesThe major messages

The Decade of Roma Inclusion needs “area based The Decade of Roma Inclusion needs “area based development focus”development focus”

An initiative similar to the Decade of Roma An initiative similar to the Decade of Roma Inclusion is necessary for the Displaced to focus Inclusion is necessary for the Displaced to focus governments efforts in an international frameworkgovernments efforts in an international framework

Area-based development should be promoted as Area-based development should be promoted as the desirable framework for vulnerability the desirable framework for vulnerability intervention in diverse and mixed environment as intervention in diverse and mixed environment as SEE SEE

This framework makes possible recognition of joint This framework makes possible recognition of joint interest, which is a necessary precondition for interest, which is a necessary precondition for majorities’ endorsement majorities’ endorsement

Reliable local level partners from the vulnerable Reliable local level partners from the vulnerable communities are necessary for that purposecommunities are necessary for that purpose

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The major messages – cont.The major messages – cont.

Development opportunities for vulnerable Development opportunities for vulnerable groups should have clear welfare-to-work groups should have clear welfare-to-work focusfocus

Major reform of social assistance and labor Major reform of social assistance and labor offices in countries of the region is necessary – offices in countries of the region is necessary – and should be supported by donorsand should be supported by donors

Self-employment and micro-business are Self-employment and micro-business are important – but still underutilized - instruments important – but still underutilized - instruments for poverty alleviationfor poverty alleviation

Microfinance initiatives can dramatically Microfinance initiatives can dramatically increase the scope and impact of self-increase the scope and impact of self-employmentemployment

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Thank you!Thank you!

Bratislava Regional CenterBratislava Regional Center

35 Grosslingova 35 Grosslingova

81109 Bratislava, Slovak Republic81109 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

http://www.undp.org/europeandcis/vulnerabilhttp://www.undp.org/europeandcis/vulnerabilityity