"Assessment the impact of climate change over sediments yields in the Cesar river basin” M.Sc....
If you can't read please download the document
"Assessment the impact of climate change over sediments yields in the Cesar river basin” M.Sc. Karen Milena Ch Advisor: Prof. Dr. Rer. nat. Manfred Koch
"Assessment the impact of climate change over sediments yields
in the Cesar river basin M.Sc. Karen Milena Ch Advisor: Prof. Dr.
Rer. nat. Manfred Koch Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering
Hydrology University of Kassel 29.01.13 1
Slide 2
Location of study area 2 Area Cesar District 22.925km2
Population: 43.94 Hab/Km2 Capital : Valledupar 365.548 Hab
Temperature: 28C Location: 074116 105214 N 725327 740828 W Main
ecosystems: Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta: (5300 -1230 m.a.s.l)
Serrana de Perij:(750 -1350 m.a.s.l) Valley of River Cesar: (500-
950 m.a.s.l) Cienaga de la zapatosa: :(50 -200 m.a.s.l) Main
characteristics of the Cesar region: Important roll for the
economic in the region (cotton crop, mining, livestock) Intensive
agricultural practices Existence of hydro meteorological and soil
use information for the area. Table 1:Charactetistic of study area
Serrania de Perija Sierra nevada de Santa Marta Valley of River
Cesar Cienaga de la Zapatosa
Slide 3
Stament of the problem For the district of Cesar, one of the
most important water resources is the Cesar river. One of the major
environmental problems in the region has been the massive
deforestation of most of the forests to make way for agricultural
uses that may lead to ecological imbalances. 3
Slide 4
From the point of view of agriculture, inadequate use of
natural resources, such as the use of mechanization without the
prior classification of the agro-ecological zone. In an area, as
the Cesar basin, which is rich in topographical and soil
physiological conditions, erosion and sedimentation could occur in
several ways. Schumacher T.E, et al. (1999), states that net soil
loss from tillage erosion occurs on slope lands as a result of
gravity acting on moving soil. 4
Slide 5
According to a study of climate modeling in Colombia conducted
by Pabn J.D, (2006), in the Cesar region the trend of air
temperature might increase 0.17 C per decade, and the trend of
precipitation 1.46% per decade for that region. From the
agricultural point of view, the United Nations system in its review
of risks and opportunities associated with climate change states
that the effects associated with this phenomenon could be the
aridity, soil erosion, desertification and changes in the
hydrological regime as well as increased risk of flooding in
agricultural production affecting crops. 5
Slide 6
The main objective The main objective of this research is to
assess the impact of climatic change over sedimentation yield in
the Cesar basin, which is located in the Cesar district in northern
of Colombia using SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. Specific
objectives: Establish the historical behavior of climatic and
hydrological variables in the basin of the Cesar River. Evaluate
sedimentation yield in the basin under climate change. 6
Slide 7
SWAT Model 1 Soil Water Assessment Tool SWAT is a physically
based, watershed-scale, continuous time, distributed-parameter
hydrologic model that uses spatially distributed data on
topography, land use, soil, and weather for hydrologic modeling and
operates on a daily time step (Arnold et al., 1998; Arnold and
Fohrer, 2005). Based on topography, this model subdivides a
watershed into a number of subbasins for modeling purposes. In
latina Amrica SWAT has been used in countries as: Mxico 2 ; Brasil
3, Colombia 4 ; Repblica Dominicana 5 Venezuela 6 7 1
http://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-model/http://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-model/
2(Torres B. et al., 2005; Johannes,2004), 3(Machado, 2002; Machado
et al., 2003; Neves et al., 2006), 4 (Millan and Isaza, 2002);
(Oate and Aguilar, 2003) 5 (Camacho et al.,2003) 6 (Silva, 2004).
The soilwater balance is the primary equation used in the SWAT
model, which is represented as: SW :soil content, R, Q, ET, P and
QR are daily precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, percolation
and return ow, respectly. Sed :sediment yield on a given day
(metric tons) Qsurf : the surface runoff volume (mm/ha) q : the
peak runoff rate (m3/s), Khru is the Universal Soil Loss Equation
(USLE), CUSLE, PUSLE, LSUSLE CFRG are factors as function of
soil.
Slide 8
The research design and methodology 1.Literature review
2.Training in SWAT model 3.Collection of information TYPE OF
INFORMATIONCHARACTERISTIC OF INFORMATIONSOURCE Digital Elevation
Model90m x 90mASTER GDEM Use of soilScale: 125.000IGAC Soil
mapsScale: 125.000IGAC Physic and chemical Soil properties Soil
type, Area ratio, Content of sand, Content of clay, Content of fine
clay, Content of Organic carbon, Content of total nitrogen, Content
of potassium, Content of total phosphorus. IGAC, ICA Climatic daily
data (30 years) !!! Daily precipitation, Maximum temperature.
Minimum temperature, Solar radiation. Wind speed, Relative
humidity, Daily Stream. Sedimentation yield Hydrology, Meteorology
and Environmental Studies Institute (IDEAM) 8
Slide 9
4.Preparation of background information of entry for the
application of the hydrological model. 5.Analysis of the series of
time. 6.Modeling and calibration of the Cesar River basin
hydrological validation. 7.Write final paper 9
Slide 10
Partial results 3.Collection of information and arrangement of
data 10 Macro
Slide 11
Quality of available climatic data 11 Variable StationsYears
Amount%fromto MaxT9619802010 MaxWs3219802009 MS211319702009
MRH9619802010 MT9619802010 MWs5319752009 mT9619802010 TSB8519802009
TE7419802009 TP734519802009 TWt9619852008 Max T: Maximun
temperature, MaxWs: Maximun wind speed, MWs: Main wind speed, MS:
Main Stream, MRH: Main relative Humidity, MT: Main temperature, mT:
minimum temperature, TSB: Total solar brightness, TE: Total
evaporation, TP: Total precipitation, TWt : Total wind track.
Figure 1: Description of available data
Slide 12
Delimitation of the basin with SWAT 12 Pte canoas Station (45
m.a.s.l) Area Cesar Basin: 12.500km2 Range of elevation: 40 and
5300 m.a.s.l.
4.Flood Frequency Analysis Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
The Log-Pearson Type III distribution is a statistical technique
for fitting frequency distribution data to predict the design flood
for a river at some site. Once the statistical information is
calculated for the river site, a frequency distribution can be
constructed. The probabilities of floods of various sizes can be
extracted from the curve. The advantage of this particular
technique is that extrapolation can be made of the values for
events with return periods well beyond the observed flood events.
21
Slide 22
22 180 2
Slide 23
23
Slide 24
Conclusions 24 Higher flow rates months are October and
November and the lower flow are January and February. There is
evidence that indicates that the discharge in the months of greater
and lower discharge has been increasing in recent years.