Assessment of malaria Transmission During Bega 2012/13 in terms of climate Suitability

7/29/2019 Assessment of malaria Transmission During Bega 2012/13 in terms of climate Suitability

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2/2/2013

January 2013

Assessment of malaria Transmission During Bega2012/13 in terms of climate Suitability

National Meteorological Agency (NMA)


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Outline of the presentation

Introduction

Objective

Methodology

Discussion

Conclusion

Health impact outlook for the coming Belg 2013

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1. Introduction

Malaria is one of the climate sensitivediseases that mostly severe problems ofpublic health.

Although malaria can affectsall humanbeings.

Malaria is one ofclimate sensitive diseases.

Climatic conditions like: temperature, rainfalland humidity plays important role in existence

and distribution of malaria.

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Introduction.

Rainfall is largely responsible for creating the

conditions which allow sufficient surface

waterfor mosquito breeding sites

Therefore ,recognized as one of the major

factors influencing malaria transmission.

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Introduction.

Temperature also plays an important role inthe variability of malaria transmission by

regulating the development rate of mosquitolarvae and influencing the survival rate ofadult mosquitoes.

Mosquitoes generally develop faster and feedearlier in their life cycle and at higherfrequency in warmer conditions.

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Introduction.

Humidity impacts the survival rate of themosquito as well.

Mosquitoes will generally not live longenough to complete their transmission cyclewhere and when the relative humidityconsistently less than 60%

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Introduction.

In endemic regions these three variablesusually create conditions suitable for malariatransmission every year.

In the epidemic prone regions one or two ofthese variables is typically not sufficient tosupport transmission.

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Introduction..

The assumption is that these climate variables

have a one to two months postponed (delayed)

effect on the spread of malaria.

Hence, the current information can be used for

monitoring malaria outbreak in the upcomingseason by taking into account other non-climatic

factors.

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2. Objective

To assess the suitability of climate conditionover the country for the transmission ofmalaria during Bega 2012/13

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3. Methodology

We use favorable climatic conditions for malaria based on the Monthly Rainfall,

average temperature and Humidity values to demarcate the monthly retreat orexpansionof malaria all over the country.

Criteria

T Average is 18oC to 32 oC

RH Average at least 60%

Monthly Total rainfall exceeds 80mm

This methodology was developed by a group of IRI scientists and published on:

Grover-Kopec et al 2006 - Web-based climate information resources for malariacontrol in Africa

Malar J. 2006; 5: 38. Published online 2006 July 11. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-5-38.

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4.1) Conditions of TT ,RR and RH during the

months of October, November, December andJanuary (Bega 2012/13 Season).

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4. Discussion


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TRH Conditions during Oct 2012(Firstmonth of Bega season)

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Temp. RHRainfall

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

18

32

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

Total rainfall amount for October 2012.

0

80

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

Average R.humidity for October 2012.

0

60


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Oct 2012 (combined RTH maps)

2/2/201334 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

18

32

0

60

0

80

Temperature Rainfall R.Humidity


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TRH Conditions during Nov 2012

(Second month of Bega season)

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Temp. RHRainfall

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

18

32

Mea Temperature for November2011.

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

80

Total amount of rainfall for November 2012.

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

80

Mean amount of R.Humidity for November 2012.


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Nov 2012 (combined RTH maps)

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34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

18

32

0

60

0

80

Tempe ra ture R ai nf al l R .H umidit y

Nov-2012


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TRH Conditions during Dec 2012Third month of Bega season

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Temp. RHRainfall

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

18

32

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

Total rainfall amount for December 2012.

0

80

34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

60

Mean R.humidity or December 2012.


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Dec 2012 (Combined RTH maps)

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34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

18

32

0

60

0

80

Tempe ra ture Rainfall R.Humidity


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TRH Conditions during Jan 2013

(Last month of Bega season)

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Temp. RHRainfall


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January 2013 (combined RTH maps)

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Trends of Malaria Prone Areas

During 2012/13Bega Season.

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Oct Nov Dec JANUARY


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5. ConclusionDuring Oct 2012, the situation of rainfall, humidity and temperature were

satisfied the approach over lowland areas of SNNP, South oromiya, pocketareas of Gambella, west Oromiya and southwest Somali. Therefore, the

condition was favorable over the above mentioned areas for the existenceand spread of malaria in terms of climatic conditions .

During Nov 2012, the climatic conditions over the areas of lowlands ofwestern Amahara, northern B/Gumuz, southern SNNP and pocket areas of

west Oromiyawere favorable for the existence and distribution of malaria.On other hand, the climatic conditions over rest parts of the country are notfulfilled the criteria and it doesn`t create favorable condition for theexistence and distribution of malaria.

During the month of Dec 2012, the climatic conditions over pocket areas ofnorthern SNNP are suitable for the existence and distribution of malaria.

But, the climatic conditions over the rest parts of the country wereunfavorable for the existence and distribution of malaria but the climaticimpact of the previous month may still exist in some parts of the countrylike western, southwestern, northwestern and southern lowland parts of

the country.


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Climate suitability for the

transmission of malaria for thecoming Belg 2012

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HOW BELG RAINFALL AND MALARIATRANSMISSION OVER THE COUNTRY AREC O R O L A T E D ? ? ? ?

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Relation of Belg season Rainfall and

Malaria Transmission condition over the

country

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April


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Methodology

Selections of Analogue year.1980, 1978, 2005, 2007, 1981

Identifying availability of RH, T and RR datafor the selected analogue year.

all required elements are available for the year of 1980, 2005 and 2007

Analysis of analogue year for:Rainfall

Temp and

RH for the selected best analogue year.

Trends of Analogue year (2005 and 2007)


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Trends of Analogue year (2005 and 2007)

What they indicate???

February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005

February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007


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Feb 1980 Mar 1980

Apr 1980 May 1980

Conclusion


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Conclusion

For the coming Belg 2013 February, the climatic conditions willexpected to be unsuitable for the existence and distribution of malariaover all parts of the country.

During March 2013, few places of southwest lowland areas of thecountry are suitable for the transmission of malaria.

For the month of April 2013, the suitability of climatic condition forthe existence and distribution of malaria will be expected to increaseover much areas of southwestern lowlands, pocket areas of western,southern, northeastern and eastern lowlands.

For the coming last month of Belg 2013 (may), the suitability ofclimatic condition starts fulfil the approach for the existence anddistribution of malaria over most lowland areas of western Ethiopia.

while the transmission still persist over lowland areas of southwest,

south, east and northeast due to the climatic impact of previous month.


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Message for the Concerned Organization

The concerned organization in malaria control will advised to

take action by follow up new information that NationalMeteorological Agency will disseminate about the suitability of

climatic conditions for the existence and distribution of malariaover the country at the end of each month.

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More information can be accessed online at:http://meteo-ethiopia.net andhttp://www.ethiomet.gov.et
http://meteo-ethiopia.net/http://www.ethiomet.gov.et/http://www.ethiomet.gov.et/http://meteo-ethiopia.net/http://meteo-ethiopia.net/http://meteo-ethiopia.net/

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Assessment of malaria Transmission During Bega 2012/13 in terms of climate Suitability