ASSESSMENT OF CHANGING SEA ICE CONDITIONS AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN CANADIAN ARCTIC WATERS

1990-2012

University of Ottawa

Larissa PizzolatoJackie DawsonLuke Copland

Environment Canada: Climate

Research Division

Stephen Howell Chris Derksen

Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014) Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in

Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.

BACKGROUND

Maslanik et al., 2011

NC

EP

-NC

AR

Sep 1990 Sep 2012

NSIDC, 2013

Two climate forcing scenarios: RCP 4.5 (low – medium) and RCP 8.5 (high)

Red: Fastest trans-Arctic routes for Polar Class 6 ships

Blue: Fastest trans-Arctic routes for open water ships

FUTURE PROJECTIONS: MODELLED SHIPPING INCREASES

Smith & Stephenson, 2013

1) Is shipping in the Canadian Arctic increasing?

2) Is sea ice (total ice, MYI, FYI) declining?

3) Is there a connecting between shipping activity and changing sea ice conditions?

OBJECTIVES

DATA DESCRIPTIONS

Dataset Summary

Ships

• 1990 to present

• 82 555 spatial data records

• Vessel name, call sign, IMO number, location

Sea Ice• Canadian Ice Service Weekly

regional ice charts across the entire Canadian Arctic

Surface Air Temperature

• NCEP-NCAR monthly SAT means

Melt Season Length

• Melt Onset, Freeze Onset, Melt Season Length

Rod ionov S ta t i s t i ca l Reg ime Sh i f t De tec to r

METHODOLOGY

Data Acquisition

Quality Control

Reclassification of Vessel Type

Regime Shift

Detection

Trend Analysis

Correlation Analysis

Zhang Method , Sen`s S lope o f the Trend

Month ly, Annua l l y, Sh ipp ing Season

Kenda l l `s Tau Rank Cor re la t ion

Correc t fo r incons is tenc ies in vesse l name, t ype , loca t ion

36 repor ted vesse l t ypes rec lass i f i ed us ing AMSA repor t in to 10 ca tegor ies

REGIME SHIFT DETECTION

Step increase in total shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic in 2007

Confidence that change in reporting did not affect shipping dataset

Annual ship counts are increasing for some vessel types:

Bulk Carriers and Passenger Ships 3 vessels decade -1

Government Vessels and Icebreakers and Pleasure Crafts

8 vessels decade -1

ANNUAL SHIPPING TRENDS

Total ship increases are observed in some months:June (9 vessels decade -1)

July (22 vessels decade -1)

and November (13 vessels decade -1)

MONTHLY SHIPPING TRENDS

Shipping Trends (Vessels Decade-1)

Vessel Type Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Bulk Carriers 0 -1 0 0 2 1

Fishing Vessels 6 5 13 3 0 5

General Cargo 0 1 1 1 3 3

Government Vessels and Icebreakers 1 3 3 2 4 1

Passenger Ships - 2 2 3 0 -

Pleasure Crafts - 1 18 4 0 -

Tanker Ships 2 2 0 6 0 1

SHIPPING SEASON SEA ICEJ U N E 2 5 TO O C TO B E R 1 5

a. Total Ice b. MYI c. FYI

-30 (x 103) km2 year -1 -11 (x 103) km2 year -1

-19 (x 103) km2 year -1

Total Ice area and MYI area is declining in all months of the year (with the exception of Total Ice area in April)

FYI area is declining during the summer months

MONTHLY SEA ICE TRENDS

Month

TrendIce Area (x 103) km2 year -1

Total Ice

MYI FYI

January -8 -14 3February -7 -13 3March -5 -13 5April -1 -13 4May -9 -11 1June -19 -10 -5July -34 -14 -19August -29 -17 -13September -28 -22 -6October -27 -23 -3November -24 -21 -9December -15 -18 -6

No signif icant relationships identi f ied outside the months of July through October or for FYI

Weak relationships between shipping activi ty and Total Ice Area ( -0 .30 to -0 .34 )

Stronger relationships identi f ied between MYI Area and shipping activi ty ( -0 .30 to -0 .44) for specif ic months and vessel types

ARE SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC LINKED?

SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN RECENT YEARS

Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and MYI area and shipping activity in more recent years.

Increasing SAT at a rate of 0.7ºC to 1.8ºC decade -1

Melt Season length + 11 days decade -1

Freeze onset + 8 days decade -1

MELT SEASON LENGTHA N D

SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE

Earlier melt onset linked to increasing number of Passenger Ships annually

Strong link between Total Ice area and:

Melt season length Melt onset Freeze onset

Spatio-temporal changes in shipping activity and sea ice conditions from 1990 to 2012

Identification of regions of increased (or decreased) shipping activity

Are regions of increased ship activity also areas of sea ice decline/thinning?

FUTURE WORK

Step increase in shipping act iv i ty in 2007

Increasing shipping act iv i ty for some vessel types annual ly, and monthly

between June and November

Evidence of extension of the shipping season into the shoulder seasons of June and November

Physical relat ionships are weak, suggest ing other factors ( i .e. economics, tourism) play an important role in observed increases shipping act iv i ty

Strengthening relat ionship between Total Ice area and shipping act iv i ty in recent years

SUMMARY

University of Ottawa

Larissa PizzolatoJackie DawsonLuke Copland

Environment Canada: Climate

Research Division

Stephen Howell Chris Derksen

Thank-You!

Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014) Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in

Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.